do not switch, after the release of news, we will. will ukraine have enough money for a protracted war so that both the army can fight and the state can function? we are talking about this on bbc news ukraine, live from london, i am yevgenia shedlovska. ukrainian economy. which has withstood the blow of a full-scale russian invasion, but will it withstand a war of attrition, how dependent is ukraine on money from international partners, primarily the eu and the usa, and what will happen if this money is not available in time? ukraine is entering the third year of the great war a hole in the budget. in fact, there is not half

of the budget to cover all expenses, both civilian and military. the ukrainian authorities expect to cover this deficit with western money, that's right, they are counting on financial assistance from western countries, just like last year, but what will happen if the western assistance is delayed, or there will be none at all, where will the ukrainian authorities plan to take the money when the war to exhaustion, including economic exhaustion, continues. well, international support is expected... ukraine will be discussed in davos these days, where the world economic forum has started, president zelenskyi has flown there and will speak, the ukrainian peace formula has already been discussed there. in general, davos is a place where money is still talked about, because representatives of dozens of countries and business representatives gather in one place in the swiss resort every year, and money is what ukraine needs during the war. how critical is this need? let's see what we are dealing with, what are the main figures from...

included in the state budget for this year, half of the budget expenditures are expenditures on defense, if we summarize them, 1.7 hryvnias out of more than 3 trillion, since the beginning of full-scale russian aggression, half of ukraine's budget expenditures go to defense, so the third war year is no exception, and military expenditures are a priority, so they say in the ministry of finance, and the other half of the budget ukraine should function as a state, i.e. pay salaries to civil servants, doctors, pay pensions, but this is key: there is not enough money in the state budget for all expenses, i.e. the government has to choose what to finance, defense or social welfare, and that's it. why, because ukraine can cover only half of the budget expenses on its own. the economy during the war can give the budget 1.8 hryvnias. these are the taxes paid by businesses, private entrepreneurs and everything that goes to the treasury. and let's remember... budget

expenditures - 3.3 uah, the difference is easy to calculate, 1 uah is missing. the ukrainian authorities plan to cover this difference with money from international partners. the key donors of ukraine are known: the united states and the european union. but you will be surprised, last year ukraine received more financial aid from the eu, than from the united states, although the opposite was true in the first year of full-scale war. the us was a leader there as well. help in general. the usa mainly goes to the military sphere, but we are talking about the financial one. so, if we look at international aid last year, 19 billion dollars in the ukrainian budget came from the eu, 11 billion from the united states. other recent donors to ukraine included japan, canada, britain, as well as the international monetary fund and the world bank. but the key revenues are still from the united states and eu. in general, according to the ministry of finance in 2022. ukraine received

$31 billion from international partners. in 2023, 42 billion dollars more. this year, expectations were somewhat reduced to $37 billion. according to minister of finance serhiy marchenko, it was reduced thanks to additional internal resources. and we return to that hole in the state budget for this year. the hryvnia deficit, which they want to cover with the already mentioned amount. 37 billion dollars. such a need for external financing, where to get it? if the united states and the eu are the biggest donors to ukraine, so be it say, they are delaying the help. for example , a large aid package for ukraine has been blocked in the american congress, and the eu cannot agree on a multi-year aid program. in both cases, we are talking about billions of dollars. of course, the best scenario for ukraine is that this money reaches the budget on time. the worst case scenario is that help is delayed. and what then? what if? will be this worst scenario,

we asked economist oleksandra batlii. it is probably hardly possible to talk about the fact that the eu will not give us anything at all, that is, the eu will definitely give, because a plan has already been developed there. and b and so on, and therefore the question here is how much it will be, that is, if we are talking about ukraine facility, we are talking about 50 billion for 4 years, 39 of them are budget support, we hope that 15 billion will come this year, of course , which can be 10, for example , that is, it is already less, what you say, there is a risk, in the united states, the hope for 10 billion is still hanging, that is , we have japan, we have canada, great britain promises a guarantee. and under world bank loans, if we do our homework, we can get about 4 billion from the imf, that is , we will still have some of the money, which we can influence, for example, by fulfilling our obligations to an optimistic forecast that there will still be some money, but only

a part. and economists are always talking about reducing capital expenditures of the budget, what is that? capital expenditures are investments for the future, development costs, not current ones. and ukraine has already reduced these capital expenditures, while covering the deficit, that's what says economist oleksandra betlii. if we analyze how we were happy in ukraine and in other countries, when there are not enough funds, capital expenditures are cut, we already have nothing to cut here, so unfortunately, if there are not enough funds and, for example, the national bank and the government are not ready to launch, let's say, the direct monetization of the deficit, as was the case in the 22nd year, then... we must talk about the fact that there will be reductions in social benefits, and unfortunately, we can talk about the reduction of defense spending, and this is already a matter of defense capability of our country, precisely because of this it is very critical for us that international partners continue to support ukraine, because our

internal revenues are sufficient only for us to finance defense and security, and these are exactly the figures with which we started: the revenues of the ukrainian budget cover only half of the expenses, cover the expenses, which... for defense, but still, is it possible to get more income from the economy to cover at least part of the foreign funds, which can still give business? there is a structural beacon in the imf program, which the government must offer by the end of february measures to increase domestic revenues by 0.5% of gdp point, again, this is what tells us that even the imf understands that now measures that would give more. the influence is quite small, unfortunately, there will be no quick methods, if we remember now the strategy because the revenue strategy, the national revenue strategy, which the government recently adopted and now everyone is discussing, even there the government talks about what we want first, they want a -

to make the administration effective, i.e. to reform the dps, dms and only then do it other steps on the tax system, that is, the government also recognizes that there will be limited steps now to do anything more, that is, to raise rates and so on, until the administration changes, and unfortunately, these are indeed our realities, but these changes now for this year are very urgent because when we talk about 2024 we are talking about the risk of not receiving any aid, when we talk about 2025 we have already heard from our international partners many times that from the 25th hope more for yours forces, that is, on the 24th they are definitely ready to help, we are now... talking about the delay of help due to some procedural issues, on the 25th we need to talk more about our internal capabilities. so, as the audience says, there will be no quick methods, but changes are necessary. the ukrainian authorities want to change, or, as the government says,

reboot the tax system, which is already known, they do not plan to reduce taxes. we will not have time to discuss the government strategy in detail, although of course it is important to understand how the ukrainian economy can to work in the conditions of a protracted war, but now the question is where ukraine will get money for this year, then, as the need for external financing this year is approximately 37 billion dollars, and back in november, by the way, minister of finance serhii marchenko said that even a difference of 5 -10 billion the government will be able to cover, but if the budget lacks 20 billion, it will be difficult. according to him, the search for internal resources was the most urgent problem at that time. one of the options that experts talk about is printing money, which is why it is high inflation, as it was in 2022. when prices rose by a third, in general, from a financial point of view, this year will be more difficult than last, my colleague anastasia zanuda, who follows the economy, wrote about this earlier, but how much more difficult, what can be under threat, again, the same questions, where should ukraine get the money, i asked her, is it possible

to save on something else? the government says that it has already reduced everything that could be reduced, first we went to the exit of capital expenditures, that is, everyone has already forgotten about... the construction that we have lasted until the war. what's next, are these social expenditures, are they salaries for civil servants, can they be reduced, for example, pensions should not be indexed. or, for example, to refuse to raise the minimum wage, as it was in the 22nd and 23rd years, to freeze these expenses, but experts say that the level of poverty in ukraine is already off the charts, and i will not even mention a possible reduction military spending, i think everyone knows what the consequences of this can be, can the ukrainian authorities still mobilize business and... get money from there, theoretically it is possible to try, and in principle any additional

income will not hurt us, but there are two points here: firstly, those tax changes, thanks to which the government hopes to get more income from the economy, they take time, and there is no time, just like there is this tnot on the front, the money is needed here and now, and the tax changes they... last at least one year, and this is even in the most optimistic scenario, in addition, the proposals that the government came out with in its revenue strategy program , national, they have already been criticized by a significant part and business, and experts, why, what it is about, for example, what the government proposes to actually eliminate the system of simplified taxation, we have already gone through it a little. during the premiership of mykola azarov, and then it ended not with an increase in budget revenues, but with the liquidation

of small enterprises, the closure of fops, i.e. as a result, instead of increasing revenues, the budget received a decrease in revenues and a decrease in the tax base, a decrease in the part of the business that can pay something to the budget , do we need it didn't work then, but if... wonder if ukraine will be able to survive without international financial aid? well, look, we have just said that it is unlikely that we will be able to cut back, revenues can be found theoretically, but it is unlikely that it will be the amount that, thanks to and thanks to international financial assistance , we now maintain financial and economic stability at the level at which it is maintained actually. for two years of the war, this is a gigantic amount, the gap that goes to the financing of the war, it is so

big that, unfortunately, it is unlikely for ukraine to cover it without international help on its own will it be possible and on this topic, i also advise you to read anastasia znado's article on our website bbc.ua under the title "war for survival". what will happen to ukraine without western money. well, we considered the following worst-case scenarios. so, ukraine needs western aid not only military aid, weapons, airplanes, yes, of course, but also funding money in the budget that allows the country to pay salaries and pensions, while russia is waging a war of attrition against ukraine, spending a third of its budget on war against ukraine, and yet, at the end, i will add a few words about the russian economy: the kremlin put the economy on a war footing, western sanctions did not collapse it. russia seems to have found ways around these western restrictions, including its shadowy ones. a fleet that carries its oil. of course, in the long term, as observers say, sanctions will harm the russian

economy, without the latest technologies it will be difficult, but in the third year of the war, the russian economy, on the contrary, is living at the expense of war expenses. and you can also read about it on our website bbc.ua. why the economy of russia did not collapse. war and sanctions but the worst is ahead of her. and also subscribe to... pages in social networks so as not to miss the most important news, we are on facebook, instagram, tik tok, on youtube you can watch our news broadcasts if you suddenly missed them on the air, and besides, there are many others interesting videos and interviews, so subscribe to the bbc news ukraine channel on youtube, this is where i say goodbye, see you tomorrow at 9 o'clock. good bye!

hello friends, live espresso, verdict program, we continue our broadcast in the second part of our program, watch. in the world economic forum started today. they discuss the war in ukraine and the conflict in the middle east. security formula for ukraine. what guarantees did great britain provide? and what is being discussed in the negotiations with romania. mobilization by all means. the government is finalizing the withdrawn bill, military and political aspects of the problem. we work on live tv, as well as on our youtube and facebook platforms. for those currently watching us on these platforms, please

like this video, subscribe to our page, and also take part in our survey. today we ask you about this. will ukraine be able to win the war without western aid? if you're watching us on youtube, it's pretty simple, yes, no, or leave your comment under this broadcast. if you're watching us on tv, pick up your smartphone or phone and vote. if you believe that ukraine can win the war without western aid, 0800 211 381, no, 0800-211-382. all calls to these numbers are free. please call us it is important to know your opinion. i would like to introduce the guests of today's program, they are political experts. ihor reiterovych, political scientist, head of political and legal programs of the ukrainian center for social development. mr. igor, i congratulate you. good evening. viktor shlinchak, head of the board of the institute

of world economy. mr. viktor, i congratulate you. thank you for joining our broadcast. good evening. political scientist, mr. sergey, i welcome you and i am glad that you are with us today, i welcome you, gentlemen, let's start our conversation with a blitz poll, as we ask our viewers, well, it seems the answer is obvious, to the survey, whether ukraine can win the war without western aid, and yet, let's share your thoughts, what do you think about it, mr. viktor, we'll start with you , the question seems to me, obviously, not want to influence your vote, it seems to me that everyone perfectly understands that without western technology, without the security guarantees that we would like to have, and without the practical help that we were promised, we are unlikely to be able to win. thank you, mr. igor,

well, it is unlikely to win, because victory is more than just holding out, but... without western help, ukraine will be able to at least hold the front for a certain period of time, but let's hope that we won't have to test it in practice. thank you, mr. serhiy, of course, ukraine will not be able to win this war without western help, but for the sake of justice , i will note that the west can hardly guarantee its future security without the victory of ukraine. therefore, it is important to convey the idea to the event itself, not just that the event is. ukraine needs help, and the fact that the victory of ukraine is needed by the west, well , the future of europe and the world depends on ukraine, this is without exaggeration, so it is unlikely that anyone will argue with this, and the prime minister of velika does not argue with this anymore britain's rishi sunak, who signed an agreement with ukraine on

a security agreement, and this security agreement provides that ukraine will also help. great britain, in case something threatens it, and this is also important, well , at least great britain opened this big negotiation process with countries about bilateral security agreements, gentlemen, what do you think about this agreement and the following agreements, because both romania and canada are already going to consider the possibility of signing such agreements with ukraine. whether it will allow ukraine, before joining the north atlantic alliance , to solve some of its security issues, in particular, regarding the supply of weapons. mr. igor, please. well, i think that this agreement is absolutely, well, a precedent in the sense that it really opens up opportunities for signing

similar agreements with other countries. and it is indicative that it will most likely be canada, as it is a british commonwealth country. and i hope that other countries will also join this , well, will such an agreement, or similar agreements, help us to hold back, for example, until the time we join nato, well, of course, this is a fairly significant strengthening of capabilities of ukraine, despite the fact that many of the provisions of this agreement, well, they are of such a general and vague nature, nevertheless there are quite a lot of specifics, and these specifics, well, they touch on... issues that are relevant to us, from the training of our military to the supply of the necessary military equipment that our military will need even after we win the war. against the russian federation, because we will be forced to keep a large army for many years, this must be clearly understood, since the russian federation, unfortunately, it will not move anywhere from our borders, this is the first moment, the second moment,

of course, the agreement carries such a political and symbolic character, because it is a signal, including the russian federation and to those countries that are not allies of russia, it actually has no allies at all, but which are watching from afar enough what is happening around the russian-ukrainian war, and this symbolism consists in the fact that... big countries remain with ukraine, they will support ukraine as long as necessary, and these plans, well, they are sufficiently detailed and differ from some previous documents, for example, the same infamous budapest memorandum, because well, if these two documents, for example, to compare, then they really have a significant difference, and this difference is precisely on the plus side of this agreement that was signed with great britain, well, and the third most important point, all other agreements... which, in principle, i think, with appear now after this agreement with great britain, they must detail and expand those directions that are relevant for ukraine, and here each country will

choose for itself in which area it can be most useful, and how exactly it can help ukraine. well, the final is like that moment, it seems that on the other hand, despite all the positive points, we should not get too excited, well, in the sense that this is not a security guarantee agreement after all, and by the way, the prime minister ... avoided it wording, he used slightly different wording, there are security commitments , aid and so on, so to interpret it as some kind of defensive alliance there, well, it is not worth it, and unfortunately, the british military neither tomorrow, nor the day after tomorrow, nor after some other period of time , they are unlikely to come to ukraine to help us fight against the russians, but in everything to another, the agreement can be filled with a practical component, and the main thing is that it starts happening as soon as possible, as, for example, with those drones that were promised to us already in april, well... but it must be said that the british were and remain ours loyal friends, well, at least what they are doing during the deployment of russia's great war against ukraine, it is very valuable, because the united

states of america, great britain, germany are the leaders in supplying weapons to ukraine, in supporting the ukrainian state. mr. serhiy, ihor mentioned about budapest memorandum, but under the budapest memorandum there is also: the signature of the representative of great britain, and in principle, why the budapest memorandum did not work and whether there will be something similar with a bilateral agreement, well, that is, rishi sunak will lose the election and everything will be said, well, in principle, great britain will not risk like this, and we will not take such steps that will annoy putin, can this be? you know, international agreements, when working in world politics, when both sides are interested in it, not just when some papers are signed, but simply

two parties have a common interest in ensuring that these agreements are fulfilled, so look at the internal politics, in the society of one country, there, for example, you can go to court if someone does not fulfill the agreement, there is an executive service, the police, which guarantees the fulfillment of agreements , in international politics there is no... there is no executive office, there is no international court, and therefore agreements are international, they can be implemented only when there is a common interest. agreements in the field of security can be implemented only when two countries have a common defense system, common headquarters, joint armies, joint infrastructure, attention, joint production, in which both sides are equally interested, i emphasize, equally, when... one side promises something, even for the best of reasons, such as great britain to ukraine, then this, you know , these are not exactly security guarantees, this

is just a memorandum of goodwill, which may or may not be implemented, so in fact, i would not like this model of the existing security agreement between great britain and ukraine to be used for other examples, because there are no such examples beliefs and guarantees. that it will be done, because there is nothing there about joint infrastructure, joint headquarters, joint military production, in which both sides would be interested on equal terms, of course you can say that they won't take us to great britain yet , because we have a developed industry , we have a war, i agree, maybe, but in this case there should be specific things in this agreement that guarantee that there is something to ask about, things that are digitized, well, look, there are for example, the security agreement between the united states by the states and israel, this agreement provides for specific things, for example, from 19 to 28,

the united states of ... pledged in the event of peace, attention, to give israel, it seems, about 38 billion in military support. in the event of war, there are probably other things provided for, but also very specific, although we can see that on the example of the debate in the united states congress, even in the event of war , it is not always easy for the united states to guarantee that it will fulfill its obligations to israel, but at least there are specifics, there is specific money, there is specific dates, there are specific numbers. there is nothing similar in the security agreement between great britain and ukraine. the only figure that is guaranteed and foreseen by this agreement is that in the event of a new war, ukraine will have the right to continue, and here begins the figure of 24 hours to contact the british government and develop further steps. this is all the specifics. so really, it's a very general agreement. well, of course, it is not the budapest memorandum, because there are about 10 pages, and

the memorandum will be... there was only one page, but from the point of view of specifics and content there is no such thing, perhaps this agreement will be supplemented by some other documents, or already supplemented by some internal documents that we do not know about, but also the status, accordingly, the political status of these documents is different, so i think that this experience of signing an agreement between great britain and ukraine should teach us that when there are subsequent agreements with canada, with the united states, there should be some specifics, the only thing i will say that is unequivocally positive about this agreement is that of this agreement it is obvious that both sides clearly understand that it is temporary, that the best guarantee of security is ukraine's membership in nato, and by the way, this is precisely why nato itself works, and because this organization has a common infrastructure, common headquarters, common armies, in in the agreement between great britain and ukraine , nothing is written about something in common, but

nato. it's a shared infrastructure, so by the way, for example, russia is very afraid of approaching, as they say, nato infrastructure, even if finland joins the north atlantic alliance, because they understand that everything that is military on the territory of finland can be used by other nato countries in the same way. so we need such agreements that provide shared use, shared infrastructure with those countries with which we sign agreements and for this to be digitized and shown in dates, and if there is already an understanding that ukraine should become a member of nato, and this the only reliable guarantee of security, i would very much like that when signing agreements with other countries, this provision would also be somehow fixed, it would also be desirable with the date when ukraine can join the north atlantic alliance, the real international guarantor of ukrainian security. but along with shared infrastructure, obviously the countries with whom we sign these security agreements should have as well. a common vision

with us about what to do next, what to do next with russia, well, that is, if there is a clause on the demilitarization of russia, you can write this clause, because russia threatens all countries that want to conclude agreements with us, well i'm not saying that everyone there will sign deputization, but this is what is valuable for us, yes, that is, deputization, demilitarization, mr. viktor, do all those countries with which we... sign agreements and those that declare support for us, do everyone understand that the victory of ukraine - is putin's defeat and russia's defeat? this is a very interesting question, because actually a lot of formulations were heard during the last year, and they these formulations changed from,

starting from the fact that... we will support ukraine as much as it is necessary, for whom it is necessary, it is not specified, to the fact that we we will support ukraine as much as we can, and here too, in this question and in this answer, there are a lot of question marks. actually, it seems to me that, unfortunately, the world does not have a general concept of what to do with... russia, everyone is waiting for the presidential elections in the russian federation to take place, and after that events will unfold in some strange way, which actually will be possible to control, and it was even once such a theory about controlled chaos, i.e. when at the time when the world would occur...