mountains, of course. well, that's all, for today on the air, i say goodbye to you, see you next week, don't switch, our broadcast continues and it will be continued by my colleague, serhii rudenko with his verdict. good evening, we are from ukraine. glory to ukraine, this is the verdict program, my name is serhiy rudenko, i congratulate everyone and wish everyone good health. for the next two hours, we will talk about ukraine, the world, the war, and our victory. today in the program. the long arm of the armed forces. oil depots are burning in bryansk region and st. petersburg. ukraine expands the geography of strikes on russian rear lines. activation at the front after the new year's lull. will the predictions come true?

about the new big offensive of the russians. conflict with russia is inevitable. in the west, people are calling to prepare for a total war, under what conditions can it start? over the next hour, we will talk about this and other things with our guests, veteran of the russian-ukrainian war, major of the national guard of ukraine in reserve oleksiy hetman, yevhen dyky and political expert yevhen magda. at two o'clock. as part of our program, i will have a journalism club, olga len, maryna danylyuk yarmaleva and bohdan butkevich, will analyze the events of the past week. however , before starting our big conversation, i suggest you watch a video of how in fi, the capital of the russian region of bashkortostan, several hundred people gathered to support the activist fail alsynov, who was sentenced to four years in prison. they were dispersed

by the police, several protesters were detained, let's see.

friends, for those who are currently watching us on youtube, please like ours video and also subscribe to our page , in addition you can take part in our survey, today we ask you about whether the russian rebellion threatens the putin regime, what do you think about it, yes, no, and if you watch us on the air , please pick up your smartphones and vote if you think putin's regime is threatened by a russian rebellion, 0800 211 381, no 0800 211 382, ​​all calls to these numbers are free, call us, it's important to know your opinion, we have a participant in contact of the russian-ukrainian war, major of the national guard of ukraine in reserve, oleksiy hetman, mr. majors, i congratulate you and i am glad to see you on our air, good evening, ukrainian bezpi'. at night, pilots

attacked the tambov gunpowder factory and an oil depot in klyntsy, bryansk region, where a large-scale fire broke out. sources in the ukrainian intelligence reported that a military object was significantly damaged in klintsy, the consequences of the attack on the gunpowder plant are being clarified. mr. major, we have seen the activity of the armed forces during the last week of ukraine, or the defense forces of ukraine in attacks on military facilities and critical. infrastructure on the territory of the russian federation, what does this mean, we have more opportunities to attack these objects? well, i want to believe that there was more, because these attacks increased and the range and accuracy of hitting increased, the fact that the gunpowder plant was attacked is very good, because now the world has just started a shortage of this product, many countries have started to produce artillery shells , because they saw how important they are in today's world.

war, no one expected that this would happen, and many countries began to produce, there was a shortage of gunpowder all over the world, so if you destroy the factories that are connected. with the production or with the processing of gunpowder or with unloading, well, with anything related to gunpowder in the russian federation, it may not be very fast, but after a certain time the russians will feel that they will lack exactly this component for the production of projectiles. i want to remind you that they produce quite a large number of shells per year, it is about one and a half million, there are different ones estimates, let's stick to these official versions, another 1.5 million, because there is information that... already 2 million, i don't know where it came from, 100 million, that's one and a half, it's not what's in the middle, it's just like that relative to official information from open sources, this gives us the opportunity to fire 4,100 shots per day, well, if they suspend this production, it will significantly

affect their ability to fire at our positions, so this is very good, head of the main intelligence department of the ministry of defense kyrylo budanov in an interview the british newspaper financial times announced the event. attacks on russian military facilities on the territory of the crimean peninsula. in parallel with this, information appeared that france will provide long-range scalp missiles, well , at least 40 pieces, emmanuel macron has already promised, great britain in the agreement on cooperation, which was signed by zelenskyi and ryshnak last week, this agreement also provides that there will be long-range missiles. does this mean that the west is changing its strategy and its approaches, according to which long-range missiles were to be used exclusively within of ukrainian territory, it is clear that crimea is also ukrainian territory, but it is occupied, this

territory is annexed, but with the receipt of these missiles that can fly 200-50-300 km, how will the situation at the front change? because crimea is such an important logistical hub for the russian occupiers, who are located in the south, and also in the east, well, let's start from the ultimate goal, what do we want to do, we want, if in relation to crimea, we want, well, the ultimate goal in general, it's his , of course to de-occupy, and one of the ways, well, one of the steps, is the destruction of kherchenskyi the bridge on which a large number of those are transported, well, all that is necessary is... one of the two very important logistical arteries for the russians, the other is the railway from volnovakha tazkenkoy, and this is this kerch bridge, how can it be destroyed, well accordingly, i would like tauris missiles, it seems to me that this is the missile we are seeing now, but their

long-range is not 500 km, although there were talks in germany that they want to reduce it, no, it is not good, that they want to reduce it to. .. a range of up to 300 km, which by and large will not help us much, but other attacks on crimea and the kerch bridge, they are possible with the use of not scalps or anything, not only scalps and stormshed, we get 600 missiles, 600 smart bombs, so-called guided ones, this can have a significant impact, they are very, very powerful, there is a nomenclature 125-250, 500 and a ton, standard , well, the basic one is 250, they are not so long-range, only 70 km, but what we are doing with the air defense of the russians, we are gradually, well, look at all the components that happened, starting, conditionally saying, even from the towers you can boldly

start how we destroyed their triumphs anti-aircraft missile complexes, how we destroyed planes by long-range radio reconnaissance, everything that is done in this direction, it gives the opportunity for our... planes to fly closer to, well, those targets that are, well, well, in the south, let's say the peninsula and its it in this way to attack, so i am sure that even without the taures with those missiles that are available and possible even with joint bombs, well there is a bomb, it is an ordinary bomb, but there is an added powder accelerant added to it so that it can fly, well it is like that a combination of rocket and bombs, and from behind. installed , there is such a homing head at the front that analyzes, well , it flies, let’s say, according to a pre -written program, it was from that class that it fired and then forgot, that is, the plane released and flew, i understand that it is difficult to fly 70 km to the bridge after but if we continue

to cut holes in the russian air defense in the crimea, and we do it quite successfully, then maybe even god be with him with that tauris once germany is like that. worried about the fact that you will give us such missiles, but another, another they will still have no way out, because they say that russia may start a war against europe in 5-8 years. and for the germans, for the british and for the french , it is much better to solve the problems with russia now than to suffer from the shelling of russian aircraft and russian missiles, it is much better, and i would really like to be able to convince our friends from germany and other countries that that it can happen so that they don't say later, like bill clinton, that it was a mistake, when we there, well... forced, pressed a little bit on it also gave nuclear weapons to ukraine.

it seemed to us that without nuclear weapons there would be one less nuclear country in the world, and this increases the sky, increases the security of the country, the country, and europe and the whole world . country, in order for this , well, the more weapons, the more, the more the war, simply put, it's such a ... the very mistake, as it was, to try to convince us that we need to transfer nuclear weapons, it led led to war not supplying us with weapons will also lead to the same consequences, and i don't want that 10 years later, scholze and anyone else would say, damn it, we were wrong, but we should have given more weapons to ukraine in order to stop russia already in 24-25 year, well, i think that they are intelligent people and they won't have to uh... it's all right, well, they can be convinced with such, well

, at least with such words as we are talking to you now, well, it's so obvious that, well the question arises, how is it very difficult to prove an axiom, but there are proofs of a theorem, it is possible to such and such a way to prove and everything, a person cannot argue, and when it is an axiom that you hear, then it is extremely difficult to prove it, well, especially when the axiom is based on historical facts. well, let's quickly get to the fifth point before acceptance, i understand that the germans do not want that there was a war, and they do not want to believe that there was a war, well, although on the other hand, what are we arguing about germans and say how can they not understand what they do not understand. that this is a danger, that the war may affect them and cause much harm if it is in our country

it is necessary to explain to many people inside our country, well, i mean ukhlyantsov and other people who are starting to talk about the fact that maybe there is no need to fight, maybe it is just somehow, that is, we have people who do not want to believe that war and do not want to take an active part, not necessarily with a machine gun, in another way, we have enough of such people, you want from the germans. meanwhile, in the united states of america, it is assumed that the situation on the russian-ukrainian front has reached an impasse and may play into the aggressor's hand. about this writes the british edition of the financial times today. what do the british write, that the russians aim to seize donetsk, luhansk, kharkiv, zaporizhzhya and kherson regions in the summer, the priority being the capital. in particular, putin is mobilizing over 400,000 for this. russians, to what extent is such a scenario, which the ft describes with

reference to its interlocutors in the united states of america, high-ranking, how possible is such a scenario? well, you know, saying you've reached a dead end, and then continuing in this same article that possible occupation of certain of our territories, then yes, let's somehow get into a dead end or danger. occupation, because the danger of occupation is somehow not quite a dead end, well, maybe i just liked zaluzhnyi's article about the dead end, although he meant something completely different , that's why often these, well, not even six months have passed since people started to tell in respectable publications that exactly about the deep corner, although then they continue about the possibility of occupation, whether it is possible or not, well here, you know, here it is not so difficult to predict or calculate it. the point is that it depends from what forces and means

the russian federation will involve in this war , and what forces and means we have, it is possible to predict how events on the front line may develop, well, here it cannot be said with 100% certainty, because there is a motivated army, our army, and well, although recently, you know, there are a lot of reasons for demotivating factors... unfortunately, we have started to appear, i mean corruption, other things, this is unmotivated for sure, so be it motivated army and demotivated army. it is impossible to calculate here exactly as on a calculator, taking into account only the input data, i.e. the number of forces and means, it is not calculated here, who has more, who has less, because how strongly motivation and demotivation affect it, it is difficult to calculate exactly, but it is approximately possible if another 400,000 are mobilized, this means that the army will be

about a million, if we don't have half a million to stop this army, then we just... won't stop everything. another issue that is currently being actively discussed in the cabinet of ministers of ukraine is the construction of fortifications in the east-south, and on midnight, of course. shmyhal, the prime minister of ukraine, announced today that the cabinet of ministers has allocated a record 17.5 billion hryvnias for the construction of fortifications. major, it looks like we're going on the defensive and that's it. we are building these redoubts so that the russians do not penetrate, do not enter our territory simply enough, well, this is a normal situation, we have been on the defensive for two years by a long way, our offensive actions, they were local, local in nature and they did not last long , some successful, some not so much, if we don't, well, we have plans, about it

the minister of defense of our country said that for the next year, well... the next for this year is an attempt to de-occupy crimea or to make all the prerequisites for its de-occupation, then next year, in other places, we have to maintain defense, you you know, i wonder why it surprises anyone, well, once again, let's not build fortifications, we're just digging in the field, and for a million-strong army of russians without mobilization on our part, well... how, how can we stop it? you know, it seems to me that few people understand that the situation, you know, such words, is difficult, critical, and if we do not do anything, more or less radical with mobilization, with weapons, then the russians can be in kyiv not in three days, but after some time , including, well, once again, they want to use a million army, what we have to stop it, what weapons

, they have five to seven times more, shot artillery, they have more drones, they have more tanks, they have more everything, and the quality of their weapons is much worse than the quality of our weapons, like us from about, if you count, they have better weapons somewhere, they definitely have slaves better, we have better weapons, tanks, including leopards, but if you take the average, then the weapons that are in our army are roughly the same in terms of technological capabilities. the weapons that are in the russian army, only there they have more weapons and more people, well, one thing is motivation, you can't stop the forces that are five to 10 times greater, well, what do you know, so it seems to me that people need to stop talking about some kind of growth on the channels

, i heard it 42 times today, i i think, well, it would be better for you to be silent already, that means you had one, but it became 42, well , yes, we must stop the victorious ones, we are in real danger, the enemy may be in kyiv and lviv, so that everyone, just to make it clear, for now we hold it, well , thanks to the courage, heroism, thanks to the tenacity of our people, but if they add as many people as they plan another 400 thousand, we simply not their armed forces will not be able to stop them, simply can't won't be able to, physically won't be able to, and then he will tell who was evading there, whether it is worth it, isn't it worth it, there are some punitive ones, punitive ones there, whether harshly or not harshly, someone was dragged out of the gym, and then those who come here, the russians, they won't listen to you, they didn't listen either in mariupol, or in busha, or in gosstomil, they will

not rape your women and... daughters and kill people who, from their point of view, are at least a little bit like ukrainians, that no one understands this, no, let's go on, drink coffee, everything is fine, thank you, mr. major, for the conversation, it was oleksiy hetman, major of the national team guards of ukraine in reserve, friends, we are working live on the tv channel, also on our youtube and facebook platforms, for those who are currently watching us on youtube and facebook, please put. like this video, write your comments under this video and vote in our poll. today we ask you the following question: does the russian rebellion threaten putin's regime. yes, no, please vote, everything is quite simple in youtube, and yes, no, if you are sitting in front of the tv and you have a smartphone in your hands, then you can vote yes the following numbers, if you believe that

the russian rebellion threatens putin's regime 0.800 211 381, no 0800 211 382, ​​all calls to these numbers are free, at the end of the program we will sum up the results of this vote. next , we have yevhen dykiv in contact. participant of the russian-ukrainian war, former platoon commander of the aidar battalion, mr. yevhen, i congratulate you, thank you for being with us today. good evening, glory to ukraine. glory to heroes. mr. yevhen , ukrainian defenders are actively destroying enemy armored vehicles in the avdiiv direction. only in the last three days the occupiers lost 41 units, the institute for the study of war of the united states of america reports. forecasts of american analysts from this. institute says that the russians are preparing a big offensive over the next few weeks, and this

is about the weather, about the frost, and that if the ground is frosty, then they can go on this offensive. what are the possible scenarios for the development of the situation on the eastern and southern fronts now, taking into account the reports that we have and the... situation that is developing in the south and east? well, if you mean what is the possible development in the coming weeks, to be honest, with all due respect to the institute for the study of war, but i physically do not see how the russians can attack in a significantly different way than they are already doing now, i simply do not see they have these reserves, these resources, if we are talking about plus a few months, for example, about the summer, it may be a different... story, it will depend on how their mobilization processes will go on and how they will also go or they won't go to us, but it's a little further away perspective, if we are talking about the coming

weeks, well, they will continue the offensive actions that they are conducting even now, they absolutely have not stopped them and are not waiting for any frost, but what else could they do to strengthen these offensives, well, frankly speaking, i don't see, the point is that from what we started... from the end of last year, we can finally honestly say that we have serious problems with personnel, with bc, and with iron, and it's not worth it draw a false conclusion that our enemies have everything in chocolate, but the picture is completely different: both armies are exhausted by the battles of the 23rd year, and the russians have exactly the same problems as we do, as well as problems with personnel, with bc and with iron, especially, by the way, with iron, by the way, you are very right, in fact, in the introduction to the question, they emphasized... on the destruction of armored vehicles near avdiivka, so it is not only there, it is practically everywhere, right now, well, one of our strongest points is that we destroy russian

armored vehicles much faster than russian defense manages to renew it, for example, the ratio for tanks is about 20 they flash new ones, about 50 are uncanned from long-term storage warehouses, that is , 70 cars arrive together, and during this... the same time , 100, 120, 150 are destroyed in different months, that is, this is the difference, it increases every month, and we we can already see even by what tanks our defenders now have to destroy, they have already gone in large enough numbers, the t-55 and t-54 have already gone to the front, and i will remind you that this two-digit index is actually in soviet tank construction, it was the year of adoption on weapons, i.e. already burned all their tanks from the 80s are for... the tanks of the seventies are running out, they are already being replaced by cars from the 50s, and in terms of other armor, by the way, it is even worse than with tanks, you know, i never thought that i would actually see , with my own eyes, that

i will see a mataliga, for those who are not in the topic, mtlb, an army tractor, it is not a combat vehicle at all, it is an army tractor, to transport cargo, and here it is with light anti- bullet armor, so what someday i will see a mataliga, on which a gun turret, cut from a ship, is welded on top, well... actually , the last time they did this during the blockade leningrad, this is before, that is, it does not mean that it is easy for our defenders now, it is very difficult, and they are not enough, in particular, just zavdiyivka , today there are very unpleasant signals about this, but the enemies also have big problems, and what can they do now to make a big offensive and by what and by whom , i don’t see now, after the next wave of mobilization it is possible, and now the creeping offensive that is going on will continue, and even he... i don’t think that there will be many of them for a long time, well, for the next couple of weeks, there will definitely be enough of them, but for how long, we'll see, because avdiivka herself, for example, is working now as such, you know, a huge scary

meat grinder, so... well, being inside the meat grinder is generally terrible, including for our defenders, but the loss ratio is 1:10 in our favor. in this sense , the avdiiv meat grinder is definitely very profitable for us now, and it will remain so as long as the route through orlivka is maintained. if, god forbid, the orcs manage to cut this route, well, then you will have to leave avdiyivka, but as long as the route through orlivka holds, besides, yes, it is shot through, it is used in extreme mode that is, at night and not in convoys , but in separate cars, but the bc goes, the food goes , we take the wounded out, accordingly, to koksokhim, a reliable fortress with very good concrete floors, which in principle even the cabs can withstand, thus this combination, while the road is working and our hangs on coxakhima, it is objectively beneficial for us, because the losses that the orcs bear there are actually ten times greater than ours, it's not even

a bahamian ratio, bahmu... the ratio was one to seven, one to eight, here one to 10 precisely by account koksakhima, there was simply no such fortification in bakhmut, so let’s look even further south, let’s look at krynyk , here is a village consisting of four streets, well, there is only one russian airborne division left there, and they can’t do anything, our marines are actually holding there in number , we won’t even say how much, because it ’s far from even a full brigade, it’s believed that there are brigades of marines, well... it’s not a full brigade, it’s closer to a battalion in fact, but, but they’re holding on, and there are already four of them months are not able to get them from there corrupt this is the same indicator, they understand the danger of that direction, they understand how critical it is for them that they have secured our position 60 km from the trench, but they are simply not yet able to gather a sufficient group that would carry ours out of there, that is why the big offensive is now i don't see, but this

little creeper, of course he... will be there all the next weeks, he will not stop, then there may actually even be a pause when they end, but it is such a pause as there was, for example, in slobozhanshchyna in september, when they advanced there from june to august, and they were knocked out so much that they had to take a month off, during this month they formed the so-called 25th general army from reservists into a new army , and from september there was a continuous offensive again, which territorially did not push since september of last year, but it continues all the time, there every day we have to fight off these attacks, but somewhere it will be like this for the time being. meanwhile, german defense minister boris pistorius once again warned europe and the countries of the north atlantic alliance about a possible aggression of russia in a few years. in an interview with the tager spiegel newspaper, he stated that he wants to wake up german

society with this warning, and also demands that... the bundeswehr be ready for war, quoting the german defense minister. we must take into account that vladimir putin may one day even attack one of the nato countries. of course, we are obliged to come up with worst-case scenarios, if only to know where we will be lacking in the event of an emergency, and where we need to be better prepared. our experts expect that it is will be possible in five to eight. years, mr. yevgeny, can russia, taking into account its state and its capabilities of the military-industrial complex and sanctions policy, in 5-8 years reach a level corresponding to that which the north atlantic alliance currently has. yes, there are two answers, two in one. well, first of all, this, this is being decided in ukraine right now, and it depends entirely on,

um, how our war ends. well, in the case of a russian victory, i completely agree with the analysis of the bundeswehr experts, that is, even it was a couple of months before the speech of the current pistorius, when simply at the level of an expert environment they gave an assessment that in the event of a victory in ukraine, russia would need 5-6 years to renew the combat capability of its army to the level where it would actually fight with nato. i agree with this assessment absolutely. in 5-6 years... without a war , in 5-6 years and even in eight years, they will be able to simultaneously wage a war of such intensity in our country and renew the combat capability of the army, no, they are absolutely incapable, but if we have a war ends, then yes, they will take a break, and at the same time they will not go back to the peaceful rails from the military, which they entered last year, and in 5-6 years they will be on the military rails, well, they will even resume, what is the second part of the answer ,