and it completely depends on how the war will end in our country. in the case of a russian victory, i completely agree with the analysis of the bundeswehr experts, even this was a couple of months before the speech of the current pistorius, when simply at the level of the expert environment they gave an assessment that in the event of a victory in ukraine, russia would need 5-6 years to to renew the combat capability of its army to the level that it would be able to fight with nato if necessary. i agree. with this estimate, absolutely in 5-6 years without war they will be able, in 5-6 years and even in 8 years, simultaneously to wage such a war intensity and restore the combat capability of the army, no, they are absolutely not capable, but if the war ends in us, then yes, they will take a break, at the same time, they will not go back to the peaceful rails from the military, which they entered last year, and in 5 - 6 years on the military tracks, well, they will even renew, what is the second part of the answers: what does it actually mean to fight with

nato? the thing is, excuse me, but fighting the bundeswehr is not such a difficult task. so, to fight with other europeans, as he very correctly called them the chief diplomat of europe, joseph borel, said very successfully that europe has grown the bonsai of the army, that is, it looks like a tree, but it grows half a meter high in a tub. this is real about european armies. that is, in fact, they are not capable of fighting against the russians now, that's what they say. not at all, no , well, the baltics will resist heroically, the poles are seriously fighting, the finns, it is certain that, well, actually, no one else is capable of anything at all, the baltics are very small in number, the finns are the same, that's why, that's actually why when we are now talking about a war with nato, we assume that nato remains as it is now, where the main military power is the united states of america, and the russians are not ready to fight with the american army now. they will not

be ready either in six years, or in eight, or in 10. the difference in technologies is already more than a generation, it is already two generations, quantitatively the american army is comparable to the russian one, but qualitatively in terms of weapons two generations ahead, well in fact, the only experience of a direct confrontation between the russians and the americans we observed in the 20th year in syria, when some towers of the kremlin did not share something between them, and... there they pissed off the wagners through diplomatic channels, and they actually gave this signal that our they are not there, so your people are not there, the americans said, they are gone, actually the battle continued, but the only direct confrontation between the russians and the americans in the 21st century lasted one hour, more than 200 wagnerians were killed, not a single american was killed, this is the difference between russia and america, even in conventional war, not to mention nuclear war, that is but we assume that america will fit in, and... the russians hope that with

trump coming to power, which they very much hope, trump will shake up nato to such an extent that, in principle, he may even withdraw american troops from europe altogether, maybe he will even leave the alliance altogether, as he threatened , but then, nato without america is a completely different story, nato without america, well , to be honest, even now it would not be able to withstand a direct blow from russia, so actually here to evaluate this is from a military point of view, here in the first question is, what will be the big... politics and, first of all, the big geopolitics of the states. by the way, in addition to pistorius, rob bauer, the head of the nato military committee, warned this week that the armed forces of the north atlantic alliance and the civilian population in the west should prepare for an all-out war with russia. let's hear what rob bauer had to say. we must realize that peace is not a given, that we live in... peace, and

that is why we are preparing for a conflict with russia, but the discussion is much broader, it is also said about the industrial base, and about people who have to understand that they have a role to play. mr. yevgeny, why is the world talking about a possible war with russia and not saying that the world should end the aggressive country and the aggressive leader putin, that the world should demilitarize. because the world is still afraid of russia, but we overcame our fear, because we had no choice, well, we were afraid too, let's be honest, and then the war started and there was no choice, and then it turned out that it wasn't such a terrible thing they draw it, but they have it it hasn't started yet, they are very afraid of a war with russia, and these fears are very different, well , first of all, they are based on the fact that russia is a nuclear power, and they assume that the russian regime is so crazy that... in in the case of a losing war, they will simply

launch a nuclear weapon in principle, but let them all die with us, but what they are afraid of is not the predictability of this regime and its nuclear arsenal, so of course... that, in addition , they understand that even if if it is possible to avoid a nuclear conflict, then in a conventional conflict, just like you and i what they said, apart from the united states , no other country is currently ready to fight russia, but purely technologically not ready, that is , there are not enough weapons, he, for example, the commander of the army of belgium is also one of the nato countries, which is actively helping us, right now f we expect 16 from them, so the belgian commander directly said that if we proceed from such a consumption of shells. as now in ukraine, the belgian army has bc for 18 hours of war, not for 18 days, for 18 hours, and they all have approximately the same situation in europe right now, and therefore, of course, they are feverishly trying to catch up with the results of a 30-year dream, but they slept in heating for 30 years, they

did not see for 30 years, did not want to see that a dangerous monster was growing nearby, moreover, they fed this monster with their money, and they do not know. that this monster will be able to come to them one day, they have now understood it, but you cannot achieve 30 years of warm weather in one year, there is more than a month, but they are urgently renewing their defense plant, billions of investments are currently going there, but in addition to money, there is more such a dimension as time, you can't buy it, they are trying to catch up with us, but they need time for this, and the most unfortunate thing in this story is that in fact we are winning them this time, that they have time to prepare for the upcoming war with russia, because we are here for... we are already waging the current war with russia, literally in a week , two facts that indicate that our western partners are ready to give us long-range weapons, and this is french president emmanuel macron talking about scalps, and rishi

suna signed an agreement on cooperation with president zelensky in kyiv, on at what stage do you think the west will say: let's use long-range missiles against military objects, objects that are on the territory of the russian federation, because there is no other way out, because if we do not destroy these military objects that are on the territory of erefia , then this war will last a very long time, i think you correctly said the word long, i think that we have more chances to make long-range missiles ourselves, i will still... i will remind you that we are with you, we you and i live in a country that was in the top 3 of the world some 20 years ago on the launches of space satellites, and we launched these same space satellites with satan's rockets converted for civilian purposes, this is actually

an intercontinental ballistic nuclear missile, which our yuzhmash made, made in the amount of about 100 units per year, so yes, it was lost to us. .. it’s not, it’s not that the production line was standing all the time and it’s enough to turn the switch and rockets will fall, it’s not like that, but still we are, in principle, a rocket and space country, we have a sufficient technological level, now it’s standing the question is to organize it correctly, the money is already allocated, the missile program is working, and you know, i believe more in our missile program than in the fact that our partners will finally come to their senses and say, well, okay, we will give you these missiles without prior restrictions, but with them it is already possible... although in moscow, although in principle in relation to britain i allow quite even such a turn and even quite soon. thank you, mr. yevgeny, for the conversation, it was yevhen dyky, the former platoon commander of the aidar battalion. friends, we work live on the tv channel, as well as on ours platforms on youtube and facebook. please

don't be stingy, like this video so that it can be trended on youtube and facebook. and remember that during every program we conduct... a survey, today we ask you about whether the russian rebellion threatens the putin regime, yes, no, it's quite simple on youtube if you sit in front of the tv and watch us in airwaves please pick up the phone and vote if you think the russian rebellion is a threat to putin's regime 0800 211 381 no 0800 211 382 all calls to you are free on these numbers. at the end of the program, we will sum up the results of this vote. next with us is yevhen magda, executive director of the institute of world politics. congratulations, mr. yevgeny, i am glad to see you on our air. congratulations, glory to ukraine, mr. serhiy. today you have an opportunity to make a wish between two yevgenys. glory to the hero, i

will do so, mr. evgeny, only you disappeared somewhere. please reconnect with evgeny magda, and we will talk now. with yevhen about what is actually happening in ukraine, in particular in the ministry of defense of ukraine, because we see that... er, corruption cases surrounding the ministry of defense simply, ee, arise almost every day, and we see that the state bureau of investigation has already declared roman grenkevich, the son of the detained lviv businessman ihor grenkevich, wanted large contracts, 23 contracts with the ministry of defense of ukraine, and we already know that three out of five figures. of the so-called organized criminal group, in which

ihor yerenevich was involved, the court already yesterday chose a preventive measure, this is arrest with an alternative pledges in the amount of half a billion hryvnias, but when we look, mr. yevgena, at these corruption scandals, we obviously have to talk about how it could happen that the owner of construction companies became the largest... contractor of the ministry of defense and caused losses of 15 billion hryvnias , that is, in the current conditions of economy and the understanding that every penny should be counted, how could this happen? he carried it to the mountain, well, but the mountain is, well, when it comes to such money, then obviously the highest mountain should probably look at all these things, not not not to be. part of all this, and if this mountain was part of all this, then

the sbu, together with the security service of ukraine and the general prosecutor's office must also give some definite conclusions, if they do not give it, then what does this indicate? first of all, i will say one unpopular thesis that in democratic countries people often profit from war, this is a historical experience, profit was made in the first world war. someone profited from the second world war, in different ways, but you know, i think that such a scale of abuse as in ukraine, well, it's hard to say finally, because the war continues, and we probably don't know everything and can't say, but still it was hard enough to imagine, we are still living in the paradigm of the first and second world wars, in what sense, when everything was bad, there are products in... markets , remember, well, how our grandparents talked about them, in any case, but

by the way, in the soviet union, for example, there were commercial restaurants that people could go to the same moscow, well , i'm not talking about that now, secondly, this case, well i personally get the impression that it is intensive informational promotion. that there is a certain feeling of a false object, because a number of contenders for the status of public opinion leader are so actively promoting this case with such anti-corruption fervor and exposing abuses that i get the impression that after the end of the russian-ukrainian war with "not only new ones will appear." oligarchs, as the western press is already talking about, for example, but also new anti-corruption activists, better than others, where did

the previous anti-corruption activists go in their mass, who, as you remember, they probably promised to demolish zelensky in the event of something, well, it was true before the beginning of a large-scale invasion, this must be understood, because in the conditions of war, any appeal to... the existing authorities, he, in my opinion , will not be useful, it must be understood absolutely clearly and by absolutely everyone, but the absence of these calls does not mean permissiveness for our government, because the people who came to power in 2019 in their masks, they, in my opinion, are simply not stood the test of war, they did not stand the test of their own. efficiency, they did not stand the test

of the fact that they actually proved to be unprepared for war, i am not saying any specific things now, they proved to be unprepared for the fact that the war itself will last a large-scale war for so long, and this is a serious problem for you and me at the moment a problem, because in the conditions of war there is a fairly natural, i emphasize, a natural concentration of power in one hand, in the hands of the supreme commander, here it is, by the way, before... to a large extent legislation, but when with our ruling olympians are saying that we don't have an opposition, i'm sorry, but where did it go, we don't have an opposition at all or something, it shouldn't be like that, well, that's how they talk about the fact that there are no journalists either,

you know , that in 2019, when zelenskyi's team came to power, the head of the office of the president... of ukraine andriy bohdan said that we don't need journalists at all, we have bloggers there and there are social networks, and we will directly communicate with people , and here we actually see the consequences of this development of this thesis, moreover during the last five years, all this happened, because we saw how drain tanks appeared in telegram channels, which they began to use in the office of the president of ukraine and began to perceive them as a ... means of mass information, although there are a lot of questions , who is holding these cisterns, what information is being spread, and now we see that in order to discredit those people who are engaged in journalistic investigations, it is the team of denys bigus, yuriy nikolov, who works with our money, people who write about

corruption in ministry of defense, people who they say that state finances are spent on some kind of monitoring. stupid, and i'm sorry, i can't say it in another way, of dubious quality, let's say this, monitoring, and millions of money go there, suddenly become the object of close attention of unknown people, the sbu says that we will find everyone, the police say, we will find everyone , well, in this situation, the most important thing is that both the sbu and the police do not step on themselves, because when it comes to surveillance, we are talking about... eavesdropping, about systematic journalists, answers to these the questions should be quite tough, timely and such that it would not be acceptable for others to observe or spy on journalists, so how do you think our state looks in the eyes of our western partners now, given

the facts of pressure on journalists? doesn't look good because one of the foundations of our opposition to russia is to say that we are fighting not to become subservient to russia, and we are fighting not to become a little russia, so to speak, and accordingly, it is, well, in my opinion, a very serious moment, because if... we are not if we effectively prove that we are not russia, russia, or little russia, then we will not receive the support of the west, it is absolutely obvious, so we need to demonstrate that we are a democratic country in which

democratic mechanisms work , democratic things work, and. .. we can actually ensure effective interaction, well, it’s not for nothing that journalists are called the fourth power, and social networks are called the fifth, and when they start using social networks, well, there are more messengers, they start to replace them accordingly the fourth government, then this is not a very good result, well, look... an interesting phenomenon, we have at the moment, the printed press, i think you know it, no worse than me, it is going through very difficult times, and why in the countries of the european in the leading unions and in the united states, far from every newspaper went bankrupt, divelt, figaro, financial times,

zaikonomist, these are newspapers and magazines, they didn’t go anywhere... they were divided, some of them remained as fat, it’s just that people read the press there and they form, accordingly, financial the independence of these publications, which of course have owners and which of course have their own interests, but in my opinion they do not promote them in the same way as it is done in ukraine, in our country there is a replacement by telegram channels, anonymous telegram channels of what has to be and create... media interest for the whole society, why did we find ourselves in such a situation, it is not very good for us, well , because maybe, mr. yevgeny, the owners of... media projects also suffer from the authorities, now i will speak not about the owner of the media company, but about the owner or at least the manager

investment company concordd capital ihor mazepo, who was detained at the border, he was going to the davos world economic forum, while passing the ukrainian-polish border, he was detained, he appears in the case... as the customer in the case of illegal privatization of land plots in the coastal strip of kyiv reservoir , bail was set for ihor mazepa in the amount of 700 million hryvnias, and for his brother 500 million hryvnias, and today a court was supposed to take place that would choose a preventive measure for ihor mazepa, the court was postponed, let's listen to what mazepa himself said about the fact that with it happened this plot of land , which belongs, supposedly belongs to hes and is supposedly a water fund, it is three, with something

like a thousand hectares, i am accused of illegal, illegal purchase of 2 hectares, not 2, but 2 hectares, and for this, the investigating prosecutor asks a pledge of 700 million dollars, and hryvnias, excuse me, here... a hypothetical loss in the state of 7 million hryvnias. mazepa is a well-known businessman and a person who is known abroad, since he has an investment company, and it is clear that he communicates with his colleagues european and in general in the world. again, how can we explain this whole story, which unfolds before our eyes and is obvious. mazepa will not be the last businessman to be targeted by law enforcement agencies. well

, you know, if law enforcement agencies work like that, then a question arises. somewhere , the connection with yevhen magda disappeared. friends, we are now reconnecting. sir, mr. yevgeny, please speak, yes, i think that the authorities should respond to this, to that, well, more effectively, but what is happening in the current situation, well, we have an investment climate already, in the conditions of war, excuse me, it is not in full bloom, and to say that we have a queue of investors is simply an exaggeration. even he, mr. shurma , said that there is no appetite for foreign investors, he said this in davos, and when

a ukrainian investment banker is arrested during the debate forum, elementary corporate solidarity is triggered, that’s the thing, it is absolutely obviously reflected in various moods people who will be well... that is, i am realized that, judging by the bills, that the investment banker, who handled tens and hundreds of millions of dollars, decided to bring a certain amount of cash with him, and he was so stupid that he obviously had more than can be taken away by law, well, i didn't i know who it is, who it benefits, it seems to me that it is absolutely not in the hands of ukraine, because the investment... is unlikely to improve in this way, and who benefits, well, we will find out, i think, quite quickly, what is true, this is a very interesting precedent when

bail is set 100 times more than the amount, they offer to set a bond 100 times more than the amount of the damage caused, but i personally have the impression that the damage that was caused could have been paid by me... from my pocket money, but for him to pay 7 million hryvnias was quite an effort, i just want to remind you that in civilized countries people are not detained for property crimes, well, with such pathos, if you like, there they are detained for such, for crimes that are directed against the person , and property crimes, well, as a rule, it is there restriction of freedom, and not, that is, a stay-at-home sign or not. or some kind of house arrest, so we see a not very good trend, we see that ukraine is seriously losing its

attractiveness. in the eyes of the western world, we are losing in various directions, and this is a serious problem, if we remember that for literally one week, not only mazepa was detained, but also failed to agree on a bill on mobilization, then i think that many western partners have a question , and why do we help them when they themselves cannot concentrate, and i, for example, i have not heard of sequestration initiatives. of the state budget in order to better provide for some of the needs of the armed forces, did we have such effects of the initiative, although the verkhovna rada seemed to be working there this week, approving something, and accordingly , i do not hear the topic that we need a national government unity in order for it to work more effectively, we find ourselves in

a situation. when our image receives almost daily preschool blows, and in the format of an own goal, as they say in football, and those goals are own goals, they, well, you know, if you beat with a ball on the golden gates in the middle of the city of kyiv, it means not only to damage the architectural monument, but to show that you simply do not understand why they are there. well, mr. yevgeny, these are all the stories, they are very reminiscent of the times of viktor yanukovych, that is, regarding businessmen, there the skating rink just ran over them, and regarding journalists, and regarding other points regarding corruption, why do you think the people who came to power at a young enough age, why they

will transform. in those against whom the revolution of dignity fought 10 years ago, maybe they just they don't know how to read, well, i have no rational assumptions like people who live in the modern world, they don't understand that, as leonid kuchma said, it has already happened, that is, even more so if they, well, we will remember another scandal , they order monitoring there. about what is said not only about the heads of state, but about the advisers of the head of the president's office, what is said in the information space, you understand the level, it is called bringing media monitoring to the plinth level, if in this way we will seek feedback in social networks, then the next step , i think, will be to study the inscriptions on the fences,

where ... they are, for example, somewhere in the outback, you can do a whole, i would say even very, very interesting study about who and how he responds to the situation in ukraine. thank you, thank you, mr. yevhen, it was yevhen magda, political expert, executive director of the institute of world politics. friends, we work live on the tv channel, as well as on our youtube and facebook platforms, like our video. during our program, we conduct survey, we will ask whether the russian rebellion threatens the putin regime. now we will look at the intermediate results of our voting, because in the second part of the program we will also continue this voting. 32%, yes, 68% believe that the russian rebellion does not threaten putin. in the second part of our program, after the bbc news release, we will have a journalist club, we will have olga, len, bohdan butkevich and maryna danylyuk yarmalayeva. stay with us, don't switch,

the next will be interesting. russia's war against ukraine was one of of the main topics of the international economic forum in davos, we sum up its results on bbc news ukraine live from london. i am yevgenia shedlovska. putin - a predator who is not satisfied with frozen products - said president zelensky about the possibility of a frozen conflict in a speech in davos and called on the international community to help ukraine defeat it. was this call heard at the end of the second year of full-scale war.