from the point of view of political prospects for the future, well, first of all, from the point of view of war prospects, because when people who are not currently in kyiv, like me, in akop watch it, many do not like such a story, well, sad, let's hope , that there will be answers. i want to talk about what is happening in russia now, about this story with prote. for god's sake, so that you and i could understand what is really happening, well , you and i worked in russia, let's say this, in different periods when you worked, all these russian regions were already driven under plinth, when i was working, well, at the first stage, i would say, i was even able to write a collective political portrait of the leaders of the russian republics, because everyone was an active player, each republic had its own political processes, society, national... interests the issue

of the development of cultures and languages ​​there, the issue of relations between national organizations, relatively speaking, local popular movements, local nomenclature, all this could be written about in the same way as we write about any country, but during the years of putin's rule, all this ended, but now, using the example of the protests in bashkortostan, we see that people have not changed much, when they say speak in bashkir to these... policemen, they are still the same people, they were just scared, they did not go out streets, but it turns out that any such moment, incident, can change everything, as if there were no 20 years of putin, well, when we look at the protests in bashkiria, which in fact have already been suppressed, and this model, that's what they created in bashkiria, they want to create on the territory of ukraine, and for vladimir putin there is no difference in his mind...

despite the fact that he signed many documents where both borders and independence are recognized, and many things are recognized, but i'm going to the point that it's a question of if, or that territory, which remains under the russian occupation boot, something like this is waiting for her, and regarding the prospects, you see, many people talk about the so-called black swans, or something will happen, something must become a trigger, but everyone perfectly understands, and in the russian federation as well as protests when you you throw empty plastic bottles into the river, say, snowballs, or summer, it always ends the same for mitongalniks, they are beaten, imprisoned, and then someone is sentenced to some long terms, well, what's next?

will offer to go to ukraine, people have not changed at the moment, but it seems to me that fear is primary in this case, we have to support it in every way, but you still have to explain to people there in the russian federation that you want changes, that's just to lead the charovods, it is called to let down any protest moods, now everyone. these people, whom we just saw, they were all filmed, their surnames were determined, well, and further on, the investigators will come to each one's home separately, that's how it will be suppressed, or rather already suppressed, and what do you think, in principle, how effective is the russian the power vertical from the point of view of ensuring the power's capabilities in any critical situation, well, the mylorussians saw yes, what are the words... it works in such a way that lukashenko

can, it turns out, not worry, even if almost the entire people there do not perceive him as president, in russia, there is no one answers, if it will be some kind of local story, then of course, they will transfer it from other regions, as it happens many times, that is , they have such a history of constantly shuffling these special forces so that the local ones are not local, local, that's what we saw, well, how much did it turn out several thousand people to the action of defiance and immediately everyone thinks, is this not the end, or not the beginning of the end of putin's regime, here i look at the fact that there is generally quiet as an overlay, this call evokes so many emotions, and we are trying to analyze, will something will not happen, but about actions.

the russian police, and umon in particular, in the last 20 years i have never even seen them use water cannons there or anything like that, they have all that. that is, at the moment i do not see that there is any threat, a threat to putin's stability in putin's state, but this does not mean that it will always be like this, of course. and what do you think in principle, putin is really trying to solve the issue, let's say, with national minorities and make russia more russian in the ethnic sense of the word, using this war, simply destroy healthy men in this war of various origins. for the russian republics to be ratified, so to speak, in such an organic way, by not returning young people from the front. well, these are the rules of the empire, yes, some conquered peoples are directed against other peoples, in the event that they are conquered, then already new

conquered peoples are sent there in order to suppress any rebellions there or some movements for independence, they have such a wonderful a figure, well, such a standard russian nazi for me, which in principle suggested that it is enough to play into this history of national republics and so on, some also from the united russia party propose to restore the golak, and this is exactly what it is all about, that is, all those who are at least dissatisfied with something, who remember their punishment, their the task is to die... in ukraine or in some other war, that is , everything is quite logical here, and we remember that it is the representatives of these and these peoples, well, not only the buryats, and others, and

the bashkirs, well, the boryats in in this regard, they probably distinguished themselves most by their cruelty in first of all, sometimes it seems to me that they have everything arranged in such a way that... and for them, i am not a supporter of this theory of yevhennika, but the fact remains that when they come to ukraine, we are visually different from them, well, no one will probably argue with this, and here they are told that you can do whatever you want here, torture, kill, cut off there and so on, well, for now, this is , again, the imperial rule, it works. yes, unfortunately, well, on the other hand, zhirinovsky has been talking about the fact that since the 90s it is necessary to destroy the russian republics and create provinces in their place. there was such a thing, you see, vitaly, now in place

of the zhernovsky group, a whole cohort of people, everyone wants to be in this political niche, everyone wants to tell how they will wet their boots in a quiet, indian, in others. oceans, and most importantly, vladimir putin himself claims this political niche in general, his statements, well, if we talk about the essence, they are not much different from what zhirinovsky said, but he died and this gives hope, that changes there are also possible, because they are all people, well, maybe not super. but nevertheless, still closer to its sunset than the beginning. well, on the other hand, you can decide that this whole story with all their appeals is also quite conjunctural, you don't think that these people are just holding their noses to the wind, but you mentioned pyotr tolstoy, thanks for what

you said, i found out , at least that he is alegovich, because he, it seems to me that he is my classmate, roman, and, as far as i remember, in the years of our youth. he worked in an agency the moscow correspondent of the agency before that in lemont, well, because he is french- speaking, he learned russian, it is his second language, his native language is french, he , like all his ancestors, began to speak french, and then learned the language serfs, as they always said there, well, when he worked in limond, he was a free-thinking liberal and told how the russian system was needed. to make it the first real european country and even refused to get married in russia, went to the archbishop of geneva, so that a real european person would crown him, and now you see the great guardian makes anti-ukrainian statements, pretends to be

a superconservative in order to have positions, so this is the question, if something changes, then the same pyotr alegovich, he will become the main russian liberal, eh... i'm not sure about this, but the fact remains that in this construction there is still a lot based on the name of the russian president, i mean that... we like to discuss and model the situation, what will happen next, yes without putin is needed, well, it is clear that this will be a window of opportunity, after putin is laid to rest, near lenin, there just today a lot of people went to the mausoleum, i have also been there several times, and there is still room there, of course, and you can and put putin there too, you see, well, there is a place there only because stalin and roman were taken out of here, if they had not been taken out, there would be no place, so this is such

a dubious place, it was floating, unlike lenin’s place, well, you can rotate spend, when i was looking directly at the red square at the on lenin, putin, there is no need to change many letters, frankly speaking, when we look at this situation, it is absurd, and if ... they did not kill people and destroy cities, then it would be possible to live there to somehow analyze this situation, but these are criminals, criminals, barbarians, who have no feet at all, and perhaps we should proceed from this, and it is probably better to ask ourselves the question, not how russia will change after putin. and how will we change, so that no matter what happens there, they understand what is coming here

the transition or an attempt to look badly at ukraine, it threatens, threatens their lives, and russia, of course, must be studied, it is also a matter of survival in our case. thank you, roman, roman tsymbalyuk, the journalist was on our air, today, we will take a break for a few minutes, but you, please. don't switch, because there are more interesting conversations to come, oh and get wet, can you have tea, mom , dad, what to do to not get sick, vitamin c, d3, zinc and the main thing, quercitin to strengthen blood vessels, just take quertin immuno, all in in one package, in one capsule, four components together, so simple, one capsule a day, so convenient, quertin immuno. there are discounts on psyk, 10% in pharmacies plantain, you and savings.

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stop, oh, normact, dear, take normolact. normolact eliminates constipation, normalizes bowel function, restores the amount of lactobacilli and bifidobacteria. everything worked out, the norm and everything will work out. we continue the politclub program on portnikov tv and our next interlocutor, german political scientist, director of the initiative center of european sustainability, serhiy sumleny, congratulations, mr. serhiy. good afternoon, thank you for inviting me. well, let's start with the political processes in germany itself, let's start with the news, so to speak, of the political creation of this alliance sarah vega castle in your opinion, this new association can seriously change the political situation in the country. well, this is actually a very difficult question. because on the one hand, ukraine is part of the ukrainian theme, it is

part of a completely german political discourse, and everyone is talking about ukraine, and everyone is trying to be supposedly, you know, great friends of ukraine and stand for the ukrainian fighter, but on the other hand, when we are looking very specifically at, and that means, moments that concern certain... or are there any others steps, then here we absolutely see and... strange moments when it turns out that the support is not so powerful, not so significant, is implemented, and here is the last vote, let's say in the bundestag regarding votomu on providing ukraine with taurus missiles, she showed it, well we can talk about it in more detail. in principle, if

such projects appear, what will be the positions of the alternative for germany party, it can be stopped somehow. in terms of increasing its popularity in society? well , she is showing party favors for germany absolutely such a rapid increase in their popularity, now they have about 25% of their popularity there, according to polls, and it is possible that they will grow a little more, but it is interesting that when chancellor scholz was elected to this position in... september, october 21- in the 20th year, he promised, that is, to reduce by half the support of the alternative for germany, the alternative for germany in september-october of the 21st year was only 14%. as a result, everything turned out the other way around, support for chancellor scholz's social democratic party halved, and the alternative for

germany has increased, well, not doubled to 30%, but close to 25% and... we see that as of the last week, in the last weeks even in germany, there were farmers' protests, we see that among these farmers there were a lot of votes precisely on the benefit of the alternative for germany and other radical right-wing parties, that is, the interesting point here is that in fact this is what i fear will absolutely... absolutely characterize the german political struggle in the coming months, so on the one hand we see protests against the government, they are of an economic plan, a little bit of a migration plan, but they are trying to be infiltrated by the ultra-right, including the ultra-right under the leadership of the kremlin, we saw this in these

farmers' protests last week, when there were many slogans and posters, including russian ones. in pairs, and they demanded a radical solution to certain problems there and threatened to kill and lose a member of the government, and on the other hand , we see that today in germany there were mass anti-afd protests, adn protests, people protesting by the hundreds of thousands against this right-wing radical party, which is absolutely legitimate and right, because the alternative for germany is a party that... is not just teetering on the edge of unconstitutionality, but has a certain circle within itself, which is just straight anti-constitutional, but these many thousands, many hundreds of thousands of demonstrations that came through the territory of germany, they in turn were infiltrated by radical leftist organizations, many of which are under

the surveillance of the german special services that protect the constitution, many... who are taking anti-ukrainian positions, demanding to stop the supply of weapons to ukraine, and in principle, if we look at the slogans of these demonstrations, which are supposedly exclusively against the alternative for germany, in fact they are saying something else, they are saying that they they are protesting against the exercise, not against the radical right, not against the right of the radicals , not against the anti-constitutional neo-nazis, but they are against... against the rights in general , and they sometimes add to these rights, including the absolutely democratic party, as we say, the christian democratic union, or the liberal party of the free democrats, and here we see that, in principle , the same social

social radicalization is happening in germany, as we saw 5 years ago in the united states. when the right-wing republicans, their agenda was actually hijacked by right-wing radicals and racists, and the left -wing agenda was hijacked by left-wing radicals, and these radical groups, which basically have about 10% of the population support, no more, probably 15, they actually took over the public discourse and they turned but... moderate ones right and moderate left, democratic right and democratic left forces that belong to the normal social discourse, they turned them into their hostages. i'm afraid that's what's also happening right now in... germany, i think a lot of the interests in this, they, are actually in moscow, and i think that moscow is using its agents and its agents of influence to

turn this normal, absolutely social, right-left discourse and competition, social fight, social conflict, and because of this, in principle, deprive germany is able to conclude certain. well, tell me, in principle we can say that the era of these german people's parties, the christian democratic union, the social democrats, it is the result of these actions of radicals, left and right, it has ended, we are afraid of such a fragmentation of the political situation, i would said the scene in which it is very difficult to find stability, and that is why, by and large, the question of helping ukraine looks so difficult, always because we do not see forces capable of taking full responsibility for principled decisions. with on the one hand, it really looks like this, because if we look at the support that the parties that form the german government now have, it is

the social democratic party of germany with the dpn, it is the greens and it is the liberals, the free democracy, then the support of the social democrats there about 15% , the greens have about 14%, the liberals have about 5% , that is, this is really a very small support, and we can say that really, if there are elections now, then six parties would most likely enter the parliament, well depends on whether the liberals would come, and whether it passed, that is, a new one this left-wing party is for the re-agents, but a total of six parties in the german parliament is now most likely to pass, and this is really not a very comfortable option for germany, because germany has a political system that is configured for four or five parties. after six games, she begins to have certain certain problems and begins to shake things up a little. on the other hand, on the other hand, we see that,

let's say, the christian democrats now have more than 30% support, that is, up to 35%. and this is, in principle, a very high level christian democrats were there during kol's time, let's say. of course it is. we are not talking about the old days, when in the 50s , during the time of adenauer, the cdu had 45, and once even took more than 50% in the elections, but that was absolutely a different time, a different era, and germany was in effectively in other borders, and the challenges were different, but we can say that there is a certain fragmentation of the left sector. from the right sector, we see that there is a large people's party, the cdu, and there is a right-wing radical party, where, these two parties,

together they now have more than 50% of german society, and in fact the main, main, main challenge, he called, it consists in removing this one at once. the growing influence of the adn , which is obviously a russian toy, and on the other hand, add the cdu to the christian-democratic union, add to it the opportunity to influence political processes and, plus, get rid of conservatism in principle, get rid of this flavor of radicalism, because now. all the parties to the left of the cdu are the spd, the liberals, the greens, well, i'm not talking about my view is that the anti-democratic party is

a mess, they consider everything to the left, everything to the right of them, sorry, they consider it the right of radicalism, and the problem is that if you consider the cdu to be a right radical party, then in principle you normalize the adn. because the cdu is a normal democratic party, if you already consider them right-wing radicals, then from the point of view of an outside observer, you add legitimacy to the adn, because your rhetoric that they are nazis ceases to work, and here germany must return to some a new rethinking of oneself and one's ways, because in the situation. when you have to take 100 thousand, hundreds of thousands of people to the streets to protest the elections in your

regions of your own country. where more than 40% of people are ready to vote for a party that openly demands, and therefore plans to violate the constitution, then this is already a sign of a social crisis, and it cannot be dealt with by simple demonstrations. what do you think will happen around the transmission of taurus, because it is clear that now the vote is not passed on this issue, because it will be an initiative of the opposition, a christian initiative. union, in principle it will happen, how will the coalition react to it as a result? well, you are absolutely right in the sense that now the vote failed, because that means the christian democratic party demanded a vote on this vote, and what about the opposition, the results are actually very sad, because in fact the ruling government coalition voted together with an alternative to germany, which also added, in my opinion,

a certain... strange context to these demonstrations against the adn, because on the one hand, the day before yesterday you voted together with the adn in complete harmony against the provision of taurus in ukraine, and today you bring hundreds of thousands of people to the streets and say that the adn is a threat to peace and must be banned, well, you have to choose one thing so, on the other hand, of course, party discipline sometimes works against democracy, in my opinion, now it worked against democracy, because many... of those deputies who voted against the granting of taurus on this vote, they are in principle would like to provide taurus. so what what happens next well, the government coalition promises that within a few weeks, they will propose their vote and their project, also regarding taurus, and supposedly, that means they will vote positively on this project. it is not clear why we had to wait so many

months. even weeks and months, because the last time the cdu tried to hold the same vote back in november last year, that is, the government coalition has been waiting for 3 months now and will wait another two months, but even when this vote takes place, it will be in principle does not mean anything, i remind you that there was a vote on the provision of leopards in ukraine, and this vote was in april 22nd. but in april there was full, full support by the parliament, there were all parties of the government coalition, plus the entire cdu, there, it seems, two or three cdu deputies voted against, there was a vote of 500 or so deputies voted for, 100% support of the entire democratic spectrum, and the leopards provided almost a year later, that is, in almost a year, that is , they do not

have these votes in the bundestag in principle. legislative force, they are in fact such a moral appeal to scholtz, moral appeals do not work against scholtz, only hard pressure works against scholtz, and we do not see this hard pressure, because the only hard pressure that in this situation the parties of the government coalition can have on scholtz against scholtz is threats to break this coalition and leave this coalition and there will be new elections, that's what it means. they are not ready to go for it, and they signaled about it very clearly, and in private conversations all these deputies mean that they verbally support ukraine in such a way that even there blood, that means, everyone is spewing, everyone in all directions, they say directly that serhii, you do not make certain, that means you have no hopes, no one will break this coalition for the sake of the taures, and here it is necessary to understand that... who does not

will lose mandates, no one is ready to lose even their parliamentary mandates, because if new elections are held now, then half of these deputies will not be re-elected, half, i.e. the cdu will lose half of the mandates, the greens will lose the liberals, they will probably not get into the parliament at all, i.e. all of them will remain outside beyond the limits of the parliament, beyond the limits of their salaries, but no one will go for new elections, that is, they will all sit until november. there until, well, in fact, the elections are in september of the 25th year , and until they form a new government, the parliament will function until november, december of the 25th year, it is much more interesting to them , and they will all say what friends they are to ukraine and how they want to provide and that means this scholz, he is like that, so he doesn't work, but we need him somehow in there...