[000:00:16;00] nato's military exercises have begun for the longest time since the cold war, and we are talking about them on the air of bbc news ukraine. olga polamaryuk works in the studio. how western countries are preparing for a possible war with russia. and what conclusions are drawn from two years of full-scale russian invasion of ukraine? the scenario of a war, a major war with russia in europe, seems to be starting to be considered seriously. not so long ago , the financial times and bloomberg wrote that the delay in providing aid to ukraine from the west is causing ukraine's allies

to think. and if ukraine loses territory, it will mean that nato will also be defeated. well, this is only the assumption of the authors of the articles, but what is the fact. the north atlantic alliance has started the largest military exercises in recent decades. a staunch defender. this is their name. all nato countries and the candidate country sweden will take part in the exercises. in total, it will involve 90,000 people, and more than 50 ships from aircraft carriers to destroyers, more than 80 you. destroyers, helicopters and drones, at least 1100 combat vehicles. well, as they say, in nato, that's how the alliance is clearly demonstrates the unity, strength and determination of member countries to protect each other. but, military analysts assume, these exercises will involve the scenario of a russian attack on the territory of the member countries of the alliance, and therefore, the activation of the fifth article of the nato treaty, when an armed attack on one or more

allies is considered. as an attack on everyone , well, nato exercises have only just started, so far, not much is known, only that they will be the largest since the cold war, and that they will last until may, and that such exercises are, they are not about an attack , and about development of scenarios and actions so that an attack from moscow does not happen, this is about maneuvers, said jen stoltenberg, the secretary general of the alliance. we don't see any straight line. or an imminent threat against any nato ally, and therefore we naturally keep a close eye on what russia is doing. we have increased our vigilance, our presence in the eastern part of the alliance, but the essence of it is to prevent an attack on a nato ally. when the full-scale invasion of ukraine began in february 22, almost two years ago, then nato understood that it had two tasks, one of them was to support ukraine, and

the nato allies have been providing ukraine with unprecedented... unprecedented support, i'm sure they will continue to do so, and the other task was, of course, to prevent this war from escalating into a full-scale war between russia and nato, and we have done so by deploying more troops in the eastern part of the alliance, increasing defense investment, and through more military exercises. training is one thing, but the population must also prepare for war with russia. western countries to full-scale war, these are the words of admiral rob bauer, who heads the bloc's military committee. what does this mean, what will such training look like, this is what the admiral said in an interview with the bbc. what are we doing in nato? we have been preparing for collective defense for many years, and the large-scale nato exercises, the persistent defender 2024, are a vivid

example of this. 90,000 troops... will take part in these maneuvers, 20,000 of them from great britain, all the allies have joined them, so this is a great example, this is a necessary step, because the russians have not achieved none of their strategic goals in ukraine, and therefore will continue the war. ukrainians are also forced to continue fighting in order not to lose their country, because the russians do not stop, and that is why we have to realistically assess the situation and realize it. that this war concerns not only ukraine, its geography is much wider and includes part of the territories of europe. we have created a situation where professional militaries take care of our security, and the people of our countries are used to thinking so, but not when it comes to a serious conflict on our own territory, a collective defense and struggle against the enemy who attacked us, when not only the military is involved, but also

the whole society as a whole. it is about the fact that industrial enterprises must be ready for sufficient production, artillery shells, tanks, planes, ships and so on, not only for the beginning of the war. but to be able to continue it, and it is also about people, because if war comes, unfortunately, there will be dead and wounded, and it will be necessary to find new soldiers, so we are not only talking about professional soldiers, this concerns the whole society, in general, which will have to participate in the war if it comes to that, and this is what happened in ukraine. yes, we've heard admiral rob bauer's opinion, but let's take a broader look at the situation. together with our next guest oleksandr hara, an expert at the center for defense strategies in communication. good evening, oleksandr, the leadership of ukraine about the possible aggression of russia against the members of the nato member states, not to mention the beginning of a full-scale war.

it will be two years soon. why did they only begin to openly declare this in the west? now? i think it's an evolution of thinking. in fact, back in 2014, the british realized what a threat it was. the russian federation against the europeans, well, actually the interests in britain, and therefore they prioritized being present in the black sea, helping ukraine rebuild its naval forces, and by and large, revisions of plans also began. next, it should be said that this is the trump administration, thanks to the fact that there were great professionals on national security and defense, minister metis, advisers on of national security, mcmaster and bolton, they began to deploy. to give, let's say, a strategic document and a military machine of the united states to restrain the russian federation, and of course a large-scale invasion, most importantly, the terrible genocidal war that the russian federation is waging against ukraine, it

terrified everyone, not only eastern and central europe , which remembers the charms of the soviet occupation, but also the old europe, and we also see the siten vende in germany, that is, such a strategic reversal of germany. and germany from the fact that it was initially afraid to provide us with helmets, now it is actually in third place after the united states of the european union in terms of the amount of defense assistance to ukraine. we see a change in the thinking of analysts and politicians. just a few weeks ago , the german foreign policy council released a document where they say 5, 6, eight years at the most after the end of this war. russia will be able to attack a nato member country. after that , the poles said it was too much for us less time, four years. estonians said that there are two years in general. that is, they understand that there will not be such a large-scale war against them. russia can resort to more creative

means. well, britain itself, as a pioneer in, let's say, on the european continent, who understand very well that if you want peace, you have to prepare for war, they began to revise their plans and their own. capacity in europe, and this is actually the reason why they talk about the mobilization of society, well, not in the literal sense of the word, preparation, and not only those who will fight, but also civil society on the example of ukraine, which will be ready to help the defense forces in order to restore the infrastructure and what is called, i.e. sustainability, so that it is implemented in britain in a comprehensive concept. this is a society approach, i.e. when the entire community is involved in the defense of the state, yes, but it is one thing to say, but do the nato countries, nato countries have enough strength, on the one hand, to support ukraine in the war with russia, and on the other hand, to prepare themselves for

a possible war and stockpiling weapons, so definitely that such and such a war that is going on in ukraine, and those amounts of material resources, ammunition. weapons that it absorbs, they pushed our western partners, first of all, to increase the production of ammunition for the needs of ukraine, but they also understand that they can be next after ukraine in this war, and that is precisely why they understand that by helping ukraine, they are doing a very good thing not only for ukraine, so that we remain a sovereign state, and the ukrainian nation survived, but also they, roughly speaking... are buying time to prepare themselves, and of course there is also a problem, you rightly said at the beginning that with the possible coming to power of trump in the united states , the general conditions may change for europeans as well, no only

for ukraine, we know that since october of last year the vote on let's say a large aid package for ukraine has been delayed, but trump at one time expressed his intention to withdraw from nato, this will mean that... in fact, their european allies will be deprived of large resources, starting from nuclear the umbrella provided by the united states, ending with the military and equipment, and of course that cannot be compared... those capabilities, the equipment and weapons available in europe, the industrial capabilities of the defense-industrial complex with those of the united states. oleksandr, yes, you spoke for great britain, please stay in touch, i want to say that war with russia is possible, spoke in the general staff of great britain. the chief of the general staff, general patrick sanders , recently said that britain should prepare army of citizens. the strength of the british army during the three. in the following years, it should increase to

120,000, but even this number is not enough, that's how the general thinks. according to him, dobritannia needs such an army that can grow quickly, it is about the preparation of reserves, and how they reacted to such changes, the defense commentator, bbc correspondent jonathan beale told about it earlier on the bbc. general sanders' statements may sound alarming, but he is not the only one to warn of a possible conflict in europe. "we heard similar things from the head of the nato military committee, from the german defense minister, even the british defense minister says that we are moving from a post-war to a pre-war world. why do they say that? because of russia, because of what it is doing in ukraine. they believe that this is not the limit of putin's ambitions. what general sanders calls for is preparation for mass mobilization, for the creation of a citizen's army. this does not mean that people will start receiving summonses or will be forced to join the army," but, as he says, preparation must take place, because regular

the army was reduced to 73 thousand, and even with additional reserves it will not be enough. of course, he also probably means that our country doesn't spend enough on defense, which of course makes politicians nervous, especially in an election year. downing street noted that such comments do not help the situation. however, i don't think general sanders is too concerned about that. his term of office is coming to an end. he says that he does not want his country to find itself in such a situation as in the summer of 1914, when all the alarm bells were talking about the beginning of the first world war, but they were ignored, so now he is calling for action. yes, oleksandr khara is in touch with us, we continue to talk, mr. oleksandr, but in general, to summarize, how ready europe is for a possible war with russia, and how ready russia is for a war with europe, and this... depends on type of conflict, of course, such a large-scale conflict as now between

russia and ukraine, it is difficult to imagine that the russian federation with its outdated equipment, with problems with ammunition, and its whims, it relies on iranian drones, and missiles and north korean missiles, of course, it is not ready for this now, but with limited use of forces and means, as well as with the threat of using nuclear weapons, it can simply paralyze the will of nato. of course, that... that this scenario is still quite, let's say, remote, but it can happen, and that's why it's very good that our european partners finally understood our theses after 10 years of the russian war against ukraine we are the outpost of europe that the russian federation will not stop on ukraine and that it poses a threat not only to europe, but also to the world, and of course, that while preparing for war, the europeans will postpone this war in this way, or i hope with a ukrainian victory and in general. the question of further russian aggressions will be removed,

the russian federation will cease to exist within its current borders. yes, we heard you, thanks for the analysis. oleksandr khara, an expert of the center for defense strategies, was in touch with us. thank you. so subscribe to our pages in social networks so as not to miss the most important news. we are on facebook instagram, tiktok. on youtube you can too. watch our news release, if you missed it on the air, comment, we always carefully read comments and listen to comments, well, that's all we have time to talk about today, more stories on our website bbc.ua, also on our pages, on social networks, and we will be on the air again on monday, as always at 9 p.m.,

good luck and take care! greetings, friends, live on the tv channel, the verdict program, this is the second part of our program today, my name is serhii rudenko, today in the program. a classified disaster, russia does not agree to an international investigation. circumstances of the downfall of il-76, the information war is in full swing. supporting ukraine in russia, fighting for ethnic ukrainians or trolling the kremlin, which will give us a lot. not citizenship from zelenskyi. parliamentary crisis is approaching. 17 servants of the people want to draft mandates, does ukraine need a government of national unity? we are conducting a survey, today we are asking you about this, friends, does ukraine need a government of national unity? if you watch us on

youtube, everything is quite simple, choose the button yes, no, or write your comments under this video. what do you think about this? if you 're watching us on tv, pick up your smartphones and vote. if you think that such a government, a government of national unity, is necessary for ukraine 0800-211-381, no, 0800-211-382. call, all calls to these numbers are free. i want to introduce the guests of today's studio, they are the best ukrainian journalists. olga len, author and host of the chronicles of information war program on espresso. olga congratulations you, good evening olga musafirova, a correspondent of the edition of new newspaper europe in ukraine. olga, i congratulate you too. congratulations. thank you for joining our broadcast. well , first of all, let's probably give an answer in the blitz format about whether

ukraine needs a government of national unity, since this is the same question we ask our viewers and it will be fair if we also give answers to these questions. word, well, it seems that this is not the first time that we are discussing this issue, so i think that it is necessary, but the question is, well, here rather, whether the ruling party actually understands that it needs such a government, well , the bottom line is that they still haven't matured to this idea, because the very conversations about what was mentioned in the announcement, about what , 17 deputies from the ruling party want to draw mandates, and this is a great tragedy, well, there would be no such thing. tragedies, if they understood that, probably, they need to involve a wider circle in general, well, solving issues. thank you, olga musafirova, there are two olgas, so i have to call her by her last name olga musafirova. i

behave, you know, unity in times of war is probably the most important thing that ukraine needs. and, here i would like, here's what else. to add, but there are 17 deputies, they will simply write statements and quietly leave, no, not in a letter, just from the parliament, but i don’t know, forgive me, people still received money for their work, state money is not so small , eh, will it be possible for the voters to hear some reports of what they did, well, me too... citizens are just as interested to know, and what emotional impulses actually led them to draw up the mandates, of course, we don't discuss medical problems, i know there is one person who said that, but everyone else, i think, before leaving, they should at least motivate this

decision, frankly, colleagues, i believe that these are 17 people who want to leave... from the verkhovna rada of ukraine from the servant of the people, well, obviously, this is a démarche, such a public démarche, and we are talking about the reputation not only of the servant of the people faction, but also about president zelensky, because in in 2019, we know how this ee faction was meeting, and these people's deputies, or even candidates for the people's deputies of ukraine, but the fact remains: the head of the servants of the people faction in the verkhovna rada of ukraine, darakhamiya, announced the possibility of a parliamentary crisis due to the large absence of deputies, what he said, i will quote: a major crisis is approaching with the parliament in general, because i only have 17 statements in the faction drawing up the mandate, that is, we already have 401 people in the parliament, we will certainly

release one more due to medical reasons, there will be 400 people, 226 out of 400 are very difficult to collect, frankly, from other factions. and in the parties, i also know there are people who want to leave. we decided for ourselves, that we will not vote for the drafting of mandates, only if medically there is a real situation, and so there are no more conditions due to which we will vote for the drafting of mandates in order to keep the parliament legitimate. well, frankly speaking, arakhamia is talking complete nonsense, because the parliament will be legitimate if these 17 people's deputies of ukraine leave, nothing. will not happen, and if some reformatting or creation of a new majority is needed, these votes are also there, 226 votes are needed for a majority, and these votes can gather from other factions and say that we

do not have the power of the opposition, we do not have any differences, we are all at war now, and therefore the whole parliament should unite, and in general this parliament should take and declare itself the parliament of national unity during war , it was probably the best, why olya, i’m turning to olga lelen, why doesn’t zelenskyy act like this, it’s... an absolutely win-win situation, that is, first of all, he gives the opportunity to other factions, other parties, to share all the responsibility with him in the country, secondly, it enables everyone to show the whole people that he really is the leader of this process, and he can make it so that all the representatives of the verkhovna rada, including the nominally opposition ones, because during the war it is very difficult to speak. about the opposition , that they all work for the people of ukraine, well, i see two problems here, well, first of all, you say

that having 400 deputies after drawing up these mandates, you cannot collect 226 votes, well, somehow it sounds very strange, well, that's why that if there were 300 of them left, well, it would be a problem to collect 226 votes, you have a reserve votes, well, at least 150 deputies, on the large scale, even... in order for the parliament sessions to be legitimate, well , it seems that 50 deputies can leave without hesitation, and nothing will happen, there is simply nothing, you can convene the parliament, you can hold , whatever, that's why there really isn't any problem here, if you introduce something that you talk about with society, that you're up to, well, you achieve some kind of unity of society, and you don't try to push some of your own strange ones. it's a joke or you don't try suddenly push some commercial interests of individual people, let's say this, you really

can't collect 226 votes for this, it's true, yes, if you don't have people with pockets, pocket money, you won't get them, and there is probably a reason for this, because to collect the final votes the projects will really fail, everyone understands that, and the second reason, you know, there would be no problem with these 17 people who... left, if they left, because they want to join the defense forces of ukraine, to get more involved in the defense state, well, that's how it should be congratulations, you can easily let such deputies go simply because they want to do a noble deed, and any party should be proud of them, and it’s okay to make such mandates, but apparently these people don’t come out like that, they don’t leave because they they want to join the army, but for some other reason, apparently... this very reason is shameful, if the ruling party doesn't want to talk about it, it doesn't want to say, but why

exactly suddenly, oh my god, it's scary, there are lists, i'm sorry, but for lists other list writers are coming, if they make mandates, then other people simply take their place and there is no problem at all, well, ola, i am turning to olga musafirova, of course commenting... and at the same time, arahamia and tyshchenko - this is a useless and difficult task , but still, this is what they say, and how they justify that they are destroying the pro-russian forces in the parliament, and that the opzh is almost fully seated in this verkhovna rada of ukraine, and we understand that they will continue to vote, because if if these 17 come out, including the majoritarians, then obviously we will have to look for votes... somewhere, the servant of the people does not want the european solidarity of the homeland in this

conditional coalition, but eh, will there really be such a collapse in the verkhovna rada of ukraine also because of that , that, in principle, most decisions are not made by the verkhovna rada of ukraine and not within the walls of the verkhovna rada of ukraine. i will answer as follows: if mr. tyche. has such serious and proven information, then i hope that after he already put it on the air, he turned to the law enforcement agencies, having certain evidence, having certain documents, because it's just, well, it's a sensation, if the current people's deputies of ukraine received money from russia for that. for them to draw up mandates, well, this requires a very, very serious, careful study, so simple to say,

to say, i think it will be wrong, and very wrong. that he will bring this story to the end, although, as you understand, i say this with a little irony and sarcasm. now, seriously, i am not a great constitutionalist, but i remember the following: that the verkhovna rada of ukraine is authoritative provided that it is elected or at least two-thirds of its constitutional composition is present. that is, it is 300 and a little more, we now have 401 people, 17, i do not argue, it is a lot. we have information that about a hundred deputies will leave the council. why such a panic? 300 people, and how many times, by the way, have we said that such

a number of deputies of the verkhovna rada of ukraine is possible , considering, well, what we have already listed, yes, occupied donetsk, luhansk region, crimea, maybe a smaller number of deputies, but to they were of higher quality, but with on the issue of quality, here i agree with my colleague olga len, well, there are big problems here, and it's sad to see. very often it is sad to see what decisions are made, that is, in my opinion, you know, from reducing the number of low-quality deputies, the quality will not change, it will still be quite low, so it

will neither worsen nor improve the situation, solving the problem lying. a little in a different plane, or not even a little, the one about which we have already said, somehow it is necessary to increase the quality characteristics, but here the question is also in that, well, there will be no more elections, and accordingly, well, the issue here is not the elections, well, the fact is that this verkhovna rada remains anyway, no, it is legitimate, but, but i mean that if they all will be like those. advertising about chewing gum to get off the plane and say goodbye to everyone, sooner or later there will be up to 300, and we cannot do anything about the elections, because according to the current legislation, wartime does not allow elections to be held, here is how to be in this situation, that is, people, ukrainians become hostages of those people's deputies of ukraine, who can simply

leave the parliament and say: listen, i can't, that's it, it's over. well, listen, if we all understand that when mykola tyshchenko comes out and says something, it's not him speaking, because he doesn't have such ideas of his own, it's more likely that we have genius media people who work around the office president, and they came up with this legend, but the posts, well, there is already a problem, if the deputies took money from some russian circles, well, they are traitors. as right as i am i know, in general, treason is just the reason for depriving these people of their mandate, right? well, yes, of course, do we in the office of the president believe that treason is not a reason for the removal of the mandate, and they invent such legends, so i don't understand something about them in this regard, treason