greetings, this is svoboda live, my name is vlasta lazur, we are currently talking about the prospects of the resignation of valery zaluzhny and whether ukraine is able to continue the war without american help, counting on it. on

their own. without the continuation of american aid, all of ukraine's achievements will be in jeopardy, us secretary of state antony blinken said at a joint press conference with nato secretary general jens stoltenberg in washington. he stated that the cessation of aid supplies from the us has already led to some consequences on the battlefield. i will remind you that a number of sources in the american media claim that the delay. assistance to ukraine in the congress is connected with donald trump's pressure on congressmen. allegedly, trump is not interested in making a decision on aid to kyiv, because this decision is related to the strengthening of us migration legislation. like, it is not in trump's interests, especially before the election, that his political opponent joe biden decided the migration crisis. this is a purely internal political american issue, diplomats and other political commentators have repeatedly stated this on our air. well and ukraine is rather a hostage here. they said

, but as blinken said, without a decision from congress, everything ukraine has achieved and the us has helped it achieve will be in jeopardy, and it will send the wrong signal to us adversaries, including russian president vladimir putin. in order to ensure that aid continues, that we all step up and do what is necessary to ensure that ukraine succeeds and russia suffers a strategic defeat, it is vital that congress pass the supplemental budget request that president. biden: without it, everything that the ukrainians have achieved and that we have helped them to achieve will be in jeopardy. well, in the meantime, the american publication time notes that a new stage began in the russian-ukrainian war in the winter. it is characterized by drone strikes on targets deep in russian territory. according to the publication , ukrainian drones are launched in the dead of night at secret bases in ukraine, which are carefully guarded by the military. referring to the minister of strategic industries. of

oleksandr kamyshin's industry, the publication reports that all recent strikes on targets in russia were carried out by ukrainian-made drones. we have analyzed and collected in one material the most high-profile attacks on targets in russia since the beginning of this year. this is a video from the russian oil refinery in yaroslavl, which was attacked by a drone on january 29. the governor of the region, mykhailo evraev, said that the drone was neutralized by the electronic warfare system. according to him , there was no ignition and no casualties, but explosives technicians were working on the spot so as not to harm the combat unit. drone attack on an oil refinery in yaroslavl is the sixth drone attack on russian oil and gas infrastructure facilities since the beginning of 2024 that has become known. the first took place on january 9 in the russian city of orel. 15-20 minutes ago. 15-20 minutes ago, this missile seems to be at our base. and here is the second

building, in the eagle, here are the barrels, they were beaten. then the drones attacked the orel naftoprodukt oil depot. the governor of the region, andriy klychkov, reported that two drones fell on a fuel and energy infrastructure facility, and another allegedly on a non-residential building. tim at times, the russian telegram channels 112 and mesh, in addition to the attack on the oil depot, also announced an attack on the orel obelenergo building. according to open sources, the dispatch center of the local power system is located there. the next attack took place on january 18 in st. petersburg. the russian telegram channel baza, citing sources, reported that there were three drones in total. two of which were allegedly neutralized by rep means, after which they fell into the gulf of finland. and the third drone fell on the open territory of one of the elevator platforms of the oil terminal. some ukrainian media, citing their own intelligence sources, said that the attack was a ukrainian special operation. in particular, an anonymous interlocutor stated. according to rbc ukraine,

from now on the military facilities of st. petersburg and the leningrad region are, i quote: within the reach of the ukrainian forces. the next day , a fire broke out at an oil depot in the bryansk region. a large-scale fire, the cause is also drones, said the governor of the region oleksandr bogomas. he claimed that the drone was eliminated by means of rep, but he managed to do so to drop the ammunition on the territory of the oil depot, as a result of which the tanks caught fire. in the meantime , the following footage of the fire at the oil depot, which was accompanied by heavy smoke, was published on the internet. the next attack took place on the night of january 21 in the village of usluga, leningrad region. a fire broke out in one of the sea trading ports there, the governor of the region, oleksandr drozdenko, reported this, but did not name the cause of the fire. meanwhile , public and ukrainian truth with reference to sources in the security service of ukraine reported that this attack was a special operation of the sbu. and two days later

, an oil refinery in the city of tuabse , krasnodar krai, came under attack, where a fire also broke out. the russian telegram channel reported that drones were the cause of the fire. the local government, as well as the mine. the defense of russia did not comment on the alleged attack by drones. anastasia potapenko, radio liberty. like this broadcast to support our work. well, we continue, mykhailo samus, director of the network of new geopolitical studies, joins the broadcast. good evening. i congratulate you. mykhailo, look, the western press states that this winter in the russian-ukrainian war , a new stage has allegedly begun, they mention these ukrainian drones, and this... stage is characterized precisely by attacks on russian targets with the help of ukrainian drones, and drones like i understand, they are launched almost every night, because there is news from local russian media, but we just mentioned the loudest attacks in the materials in the material, what do you think about these attacks, and it looks like they were all

aimed at oil depots, probably this there is also some explanation, well, of course there is, when such massive strikes are carried out there is a certain plan of the operation. and this operation is of course carried out in concert and of course between different special services and of course the efforts being carried out are coordinated and concentrated, i would not call it a new stage, maybe the specifics of the goals have really changed, because until the last moment and during the 23rd year there were a lot of attacks , mainly to military facilities such as airfields. infrastructure facilities and, in principle, military infrastructure on the territory of russia, now the focus is on the refinery, there can also be an explanation for this, in particular, the fact that the oil refineries , among other things, provide the russian army, and if

there are interruptions in the supply of fuel in russia, then, of course, the occupying troops will also suffer from this and aggression against ukraine, that is... here the calculation can be as follows, and in addition, russia really exports a lot of its oil, for example, the luzi estuary complex and also in tuapse, these were port facilities that help export russian resources, oil, gas, including liquefied and, of course , to earn money, it allows russia to wage an aggressive war against. therefore, the more we destroy such port infrastructure that helps russia export energy carriers, the better it will be, or rather, the worse it will be for russia in terms of financial resources for war. by and large, you outlined the following two goals of such

attacks: firstly, a blow to russia's export capabilities, specifically oil exports, and secondly, it is a blow to the ability to feed its forces. forces at war, well not even fueling, but providing, constant fuel for machinery is constantly needed, so any interruptions in logistics can create problems for the performance of specific tasks and the conduct of entire operations. but russia in the last days, not only probably in the last days, but definitely in the last days, there were reports that russia launched not drones, but missiles as well at ukrainian oilfields, they talk about this less officially, but not officially , we probably see it with you too. and it looks like this or that mirror answer, or is russia pursuing the same goals? of course, it could also be that russia has its own plan, that is, i think that there are no such mirror answers here, after all, russia plans its operations, they have their own plans,

for example, they had a plan last winter to destroy our energy infrastructure , this winter they have a more blurred idea, because they have decreased after all. missile resources, and ukraine's anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense capabilities have significantly increased, so they are now trying to be more creative and, including, change their targets, so... that's why, in addition to the fact that they strike at the facilities of the defense-industrial complex, they strike at our infrastructure facilities, they still strike at refineries, which are either at the storage of energy resources, fuel and and so on, which can also create problems for the logistics of ukrainian troops. and what can you say about these drones, about which a publication was recently published in the publication time, can we at least... roughly imagine how much ukraine can compete with regard to the production of its own drones in

compared to how russia can produce them and at what speed and in what quantity? well, ukraine surpasses russia in the production of drones, that's for sure, because these big drones, i mean, what are they used to attack oil depots? it is about large drones, i mean, no, not about fpv drones, precisely vevi drones russia can produce more than ukraine, unfortunately, for now anyway, but about large drones, drones in russia are shehedy, this iran produces, not russia. russia has not been able to establish the production of large drones or long-range ones drones ukraine produces them independently. we have several types of such drones, they are constantly developing and improving this year, in any case, what was officially announced , including by the minister of strategic industry, regarding the production of more than a thousand drones with a range of more than 1000 km, that is, there are millions of fp drones. 10,000 medium -range and one thousand long-range, but this is only the official side, that is, what will be

produced with the financial support of the state, but until the last moment, mainly these drones were still produced by the efforts of the community, with the efforts of various foundations and donations, so i think that more than a thousand of them will actually be produced in the 24th year, and why, from your point of view , is there no reaction to ukrainian drones? russian air defense. it reacts, well, that is, according to the official reports of russia, they also shot down 21 drones in one region, several dozen drones in another, and so on. that is, they react to ukrainian drones. the only thing is that soviet or soviet-style air defense systems cannot always do this to be correctly focused on such goals, that is, it was developed for aircraft. traditional and for rockets. the drone is still a very specific target, and it is not for nothing

that ukraine approached this issue very, very carefully and comprehensively, using both mobile groups and cheetahs. now we still have a complex, the german skynex complexes, which allow us to create such a multi-layered defense of objects and certain territories, although , of course, we need even more such complexes, because the territory of ukraine is large, and the territory of russia is much larger. more, and therefore eat it is even more difficult to cover your infrastructure facilities, well, imagine, even the european part of russia, this is a huge territory, and of course, it is not covered by traditional air defense systems, no, but by the latest ones, which would, for example, work against systems, even unmanned ones systems, and that is why it is even more difficult for russia, that is why for ukraine, for example, it is very important to choose those targets that are obviously not covered by air defense, to choose them in such a way that... russia, for example, is now concentrating on the leningrad region, and we we hit

the south, then they transfer their efforts to the south, and we strike deep into russia, the east, and so on. i understood you. blinkin, i quoted at the beginning of the program, the us secretary of state stated that without the continuation of american aid, all achievements in ukraine will be in jeopardy, and they say that the ukrainians already feel the lack of aid on the battlefield, do you see? signs, well of course, there is a shortage of ammunition, the first thing that is felt on the battlefield, since neither the united states nor the european union have fulfilled their promises or commitments to supply us in the 23 year, and each side for a million shells, according to various data, about 30% of these promises have been fulfilled, and therefore it is really not enough by 30%, that is why we now have problems with ammunition, i hope that the contracts that were... and financed last year , and the americans and europeans will fulfill it, and

in this way the situation with ammunition will be leveled in the near future, but from the point of view of the real lack of american help , problems may arise in other directions, well, in particular, if we receive f- 16, they will have to be serviced, them they will have to be provided, they will have to be provided with weapons, and yes... the united states still has the most weapons, it may turn out that we will be handed the f-16, which we have been trying to get for a very long time and have been preparing for this, but weapons for these f16s we have. will not be, and a very difficult situation will arise in this sense, and by the way, you know, i want to quote the head of the cia, american, burns, and he wrote a column for foreign affairs, and he states that this year, it is meant 24th year, it will be very difficult on the battlefield in ukraine, it will become a test of endurance,

the consequences of which will go far beyond the country's heroic struggle to preserve freedom, he writes, and in his estimation ... believes that time is on his side, he is restoring russia's defense production with the help of the most important components from china and also weapons and ammunition from iran and north korea, and how would you assess russia's ability to restore these military capabilities with the involvement of china, iran, and north korea? the fact is that, i will repeat once again, russia has problems with defense industry, but unfortunately they have a lot. they earn a lot of money due to the sale of energy carriers, and this money, namely , in fact, chinese yen, because now the most they earn in them is absolutely not the dollar and not the euro, but indian and indian and chinese currency, but he can easily do it for yen, i i mean, the kremlin, russia, can safely invest in north korea, in

iran, it is too early to get thousands of shaheds, they are preparing this year to produce from four to... 6 thousand shaheds in iran, and invest in north korea, that is, and there a military workshop has already been created in korea , which currently supplies the armed forces of the russian federation, that is, they invest yen, with yen north korea buys raw materials in china, again, it receives machine tools from china through russia, raw materials and components, and thus this the visysl military-industrial complex, it is starting to work and the central one... here are exactly the finances that russia receives from india and from china, again, therefore, in order to stop the functioning of this military-industrial complex, it is necessary not to write columns, it is still necessary to somehow start working more actively in the central separate administration so that the army of evil does not function for russian-chinese money, which is reviving

the military-industrial complex of iran and korea, north korea, i want to... emphasize that it will be a huge problem for the cia, not only in ukraine, but the problem is still in east asia, if north korea begins to produce ammunition, missiles and other deadly products at full, let's say, in its full capacity. and what refers to the first phrase that the 24th year can really become the same, that is, the events of the 24th year will become, perhaps, the starting point. point for new historical periods and will have an impact far beyond, for example, the 25th year, this is all due to the fact that indeed, if we achieve breakthroughs on the front, i mean ukraine this year, especially on the southern front, and begin the deoccupation of crimea , this will create one geopolitical situation, even if

trump wins, if we cannot do this, and russia, on the contrary, breaks through the front in donbas, then coming'. may mean for us that in the 25th year we will actually be forced to surrender, and this, of course, will have its own historical consequences for several decades to come, allow me to clarify about china, because in the context of the possible supply of weapons to russia of these three countries, which i named, korea, iran, china, so the monitoring public of belarus states that the plane of the chinese airline already in january. delivered military equipment to belarus for four days in a row, they tried to unload it there as quickly as possible, here we are now we are showing, i understand, these are satellite images, they tried to unload quite quickly, they tried to do it secretly , but everything did not work out, and what could be brought by these four sides to belarus, do you have any guesses, are they weapons from china or some

military components, these could be missiles for operational-tactical polonez missile systems, the fact is that a... a few years ago, china sold the polonez system to belarus, he, they created it together with china, in fact, after that even the belarusians sold this complex to azerbaijan, that is, it is actually an operational-tactical missile complex, created on the basis of the rszzo, a salvo missile system, with a range of up to 300 km, a high-precision complex, and china may have supplied these missiles to restore or build up reserves. of such missile weapons in belarus, well, this is definitely not a weapon for belarus , then, am i wrong, polonets is a belarusian weapon, it is produced by the defense-industrial or military-industrial complex, i am talking about the fact that... maybe it is all for russia- is it not a fact? well, i can't now to divide now the military-strategic goals of russia and belarus. belarus is an occupied territory , and therefore, of course, from an international legal

point of view, these are supplies to belarus, but in reality it can be used in the interests of russia absolutely. i have the last question, and it already concerns domestic politics, but further on we will discuss the topic of valery zaluzhny's probable resignation, and i wanted to ask you, well, because yesterday a number of telegram channels and even magazines. voiced the thesis that he was almost fired, then in the president's office they denied whether you see any reason to change the head of state, well , how, from your point of view, can the military perceive it? look, the military organization should still be under, let's say, implemented in the format of discipline, if the company commander is transferred to another position, if the personnel of the company starts to rebel, then... this is a bad army, the same here, the supreme commander is responsible for the results of this war, once again, i emphasize once again, we just talked about it, the 24th year, it is critically important not

only for this war, and possibly for the fate of ukraine, and therefore president zelenskyy must choose himself who to appoint to which position in order to achieve a result, for him, in principle, the personnel process is the same process as other processes in the course of in ... finalizing decisions and those, adopting those procedures that will ensure success in the 24th year, if he believes that president zelenskyy should make a decision for himself, if he believes that commander-in-chief general zaluzhnyi meets these tasks, he must work with the general zaluzhny, if president zelenskyi, the supreme commander-in-chief believes that general zaluzhny does not satisfy his views on what... operations should be carried out, what should be the successes and results this year, he has the absolute right to replace general zaluzhny with other leaders who ,

for example, according to president zelensky , they can achieve better results, it's all in the power, in the right, and even president zelensky is obliged to provide the best personnel potential, which would ensure the achievement of results this year on the field battle it could be general zaluzhny, it could be anyone else, first of all, in fact , the emotional component must be completely removed here, i understand such phrases as people's love or others, an idol, and so on, but we are talking about the fate of ukraine now, so we have to put aside emotions and it is still necessary to focus on discipline, military and to focus on the implementation of a specific task, a specific task is to achieve... the result of operations in the 24th year, if we do not achieve this, i will repeat once again, we will be forced to capitulation, whether we are ready to discuss it, i

am not sure, that is, let us still have time to make a decision and still achieve results. thank you very much for your reply. mykhailo samos, director of the new geopolitical research network, was on radio liberty. thank you. well, now we will talk about the most important political topic of the last day, valery zaluzhnyi and his probable resignation. the publication dzerkalo tykhny claims that the meeting between president volodymyr zelenskyi and chairman of the armed forces of ukraine valery zaluzhny, at which the resignation was discussed the latter, nevertheless, took place, according to mirror of the week sources in the president’s office, surrounded by the head of the committee, zelenskyi and zaluzhnyi met on the eve of january 29. during this meeting, zelenskyi, according to interlocutors of the publication, offered... zaluzhnyi to leave the post of commander-in-chief. in response, zaluzhny, according to their data, stated that it was the right of the supreme commander to decide with whom he should work. to write a resignation letter himself,

sources assure the mirror of the week. zaluzhnyi did not and is not going to, but in order to to remove the head commissar from his position, a corresponding submission from the minister of defense is required. journalists also asked the sources whether zaluzhn was offered any other positions in the event that he resigns. and interlocutors of the publication. stated that nothing adequate or significant - this is a quote, was not offered. according to them, it was only about the status of assistant or adviser. i would like to remind you that the day before, a number of anonymous telegram channels and some journalists and even former deputies reported that zelensky allegedly signed the dismissal order retired from his position, from the position of commander-in-chief, later late in the evening the president's office announced that the information was not true. well, let me remind you that at the end of last year, media observers and sources, mainly western media, reported that there was a conflict between the president and the leader, and according to the western media , zelensky was allegedly irritated by the popularity of zaluzhny and his interviews , in

which... he announced the deadlock at the front and the transition to a positional war. zelensky, commenting on these considerations during his press conference, said that he has a working relationship with zaluzhny. well, as the already mentioned mirror of the week states with reference to its sources, the potential resignation of zaluzhny, which has not yet been formalized by presidential decree, is only the first link in the chain of personnel changes in the command, the armed forces of ukraine, and actually in the political the country's leadership as well. i... i will ask you how you feel about the probable resignation of zaluzhny, what do you think about it, you can write about it in the comments, and meanwhile we asked people on the streets of kyiv, whether they support the president's decision, if he actually makes a decision to fire valery zaluzhny, this is of course not a sociological poll, but we suggest you listen to these answers. how do you feel about such an idea that a hard worker can resign? very bad, why? because i believe

our main thing. to the commander, and i hope that this will not happen, the information flow is quite negative for our society and for the situation in general, and those who make hype about it are finished, i generally consider it someone’s throw-in, well, i don't believe it, it's crazy, but it's not the best option right now, you 're thinking no, it's not time for him to go, he won't go, he won't go, don't even think. about this, my own sons are serving, they all respond very well, these are rumors and lies, i think that this is all rubbish, another rubbish, and i think that it is not true, well, if he is trustworthy, and now his rating, think, well , probably higher than anyone, so we trust him, well, as much as possible, well,

now is not the time to do that. some reshuffles in the higher military command , there is enough without it, i do not consider such a possibility at all, because there are very important issues on his shoulders, so there is no need to even consider this issue, if it happens, it seems to me that we can lose more, there will be more losses, because he knows what he is doing and he is showing it to nadira, well , it seems to me that many people support him, so something is not believed at all in this news. necessary, on the one hand, or in order that it is possible, then there is no such thing, say, a bright, effective commander-in-chief, and it is necessary to enter into some negotiations, or

a position, let's say. disagrees with the position of the president's office, during the war , during the acute phase, accordingly, to change such a person who, in principle, well, for quite a long time already showed himself from the good side, accordingly and proved himself and did not allow the country to lose there, therefore well, i don't know , it seems to me that this is probably not a timely decision, oleksiy garan, scientific director, has already joined our broadcast. fund democratic initiative named after ilko kuchariv and professor of political science at the kyiv-mohyla academy. professor, good evening. good evening, although all these rumors upset me a little yesterday. listen, but your, your survey, you can directly be accused of custom. you have everyone talking. and you know, and i, i will tell you that our colleague, who did this survey, she spent a lot of time on the street and came back and said that she, she herself

was shocked. because i did not find a single person who would say that someone there supports zaluzhnogo's resignation, of course, this is not a sociological survey, and we do not claim to be, it is you, now you will talk about sociology, political science and other sciences, but, but look, the media, the mirror of the week, in particular, writes that such conversations in it is being conducted in the highest government offices and that the hard-working man was allegedly offered to resign officially, no one has confirmed this, but do you believe that the president is really seriously considering a replacement. are you head over heels and looking for a replacement for him now, or do you see signs of this? as they say, neither to confirm nor i cannot refute it, yes, because the information is indeed closed, i agree with what you said mykhailo samus, that the president has the right to this, yes, there must be grounds for this, there must be serious grounds, again , we don't know about... we don't have

the whole thing.