of this operation, you can sit for several years in strategic defense, you can talk about it, but there will be no key changes, so the question is not about personnel issues, but the question is how we will be able to solve the turning point of the war in the 24th year, actually carry out the beginning of the de-occupation of crimea, this is the key issue, and when we look at this... let's say this situation, then the question of personnel disappears, that is , the main question here is who will be able to carry out such an operation that will be able to break this the war if general zaluzhny can do it, he can do it, if president zelenskyy believes that other personnel are needed who will decide the fate of the ukrainian nation in this war, i think it can be done, because in fact, despite the fact that there really is emo factor still, i would, i believe that

it is necessary to return to a still more technological question, a disciplined question of how we can achieve a result in this war, and not to look after all at the emotional, political processes that are always raging in us in the information space. let's go back to situation on the eastern and southern fronts, because these are all political battles, discussions of possible personnel rotations. somehow, they simply put all the front-line information on the back burner, and now the general staff reports that the occupiers have become more active in the kherson direction, the armed forces of ukraine have repulsed 15 attacks here in a day. analysts of the american institute of war say that the russians are unlikely to be able to convert their tactical achievements in the area of ​​kupyansk into the most extensive mechanized maneuvers necessary for operational. significant promotion, at the same time

today putin talked a lot about avdiyivka, about these 19 houses, which are maintained there by a veteran or veterans unit, which is ahead of the russian troops, and they said that the guys are like this, they are prepared, everyone should be like this, that is, putin's rhetoric is changing a little, that is, he is already he is not talking about the capture of big cities, he is talking about... 19 houses that they captured there, and they are holding these 19 houses, does this mean that for the russians, it is fundamentally important to capture the ovdika in this situation, and that's it 19 houses, which he mentions, are of strategic importance for the russian army, and for the ukrainian one as well. well, of course, there is no strategic importance in avdiviyka, it cannot be. putin said a lot more there, he. it turns out that this is his entire

svo, its purpose is to push ukrainian troops away from the russian borders, which he did not say right away, then there were no ukrainian troops there at all, and now it turns out that he needs to push these troops away so that the artillery, as he said, foreign- made, which is in service with the forces of the defense of ukraine, did not reach the territory of russia, it turns out that it is from it to populated areas, he said, to cities , towns and villages. yes, yes, of course, about populated areas, in general, putin is delusional, but he has started a so-called pre-election campaign, that is, he has, as his press secretary says, to carry all sorts of blizzards, about avdiivka, about moving away from the borders, in fact, then he understands that this war is a chance to stay in power in general, that is, he cannot stop this war, and, in fact, based on this, he must build up his the potential is military, and should... russia, aa

invest all the resources that they earn now from the sale of oil and other goods into actually military materials, effectively turning north korea into a kind of military workshop where they produce ammunition, and not only ammunition , i think that missiles will soon be made for the russian army, that is, russia is doing, that is , this whole huge russia, it is working now to... wage war in the interests of a group of people who are going to just stay in power, that's it in that is the whole war, and in as a result, they are ready to kill hundreds of thousands of russians, and of course hundreds of thousands of ukrainians , for them it is not a problem at all, and therefore i will repeat myself again, when they tell us that we need to sit down on strategic defense, well, excuse me, look at this leader of a neighboring state or empire, and what kind of strategic defense we may be talking about, we need to... increase our

efforts precisely in order to change the character of this war, and not try to stop and sit down in strategic defense, maybe we will be advised even more. step away from the borders and allow putin to declare that he managed to create a security zone there on the border with russia, so you don't have to listen to putin, you still have to achieve your tasks and goals at the front at the front. the head of the main intelligence department of the ministry of defense, kyrylo budanov , predicted on the air of the telethon that soon the fall-winter offensive of the russians will be exhausted and then ukraine's move will begin. budanov says that this move will happen and obviously this move will already be in the spring, because actually there are a month or so 29 days left until spring, and it is clear that budanov has his own vision, but budanov also

gave a lot of different forecasts regarding crimea and the development of events at the front, whether it is possible to perceive these forecasts as such that... they can really be implemented in the spring of this year, well, i would not say that they will be implemented in the spring , first of all, the russian offensive will really end in the spring , why will it end, well, first of all, it is impossible to advance in such an intensive manner, because since october they have been conducting a simply frantic offensive in various directions on a huge front, starting from kupyansk and ending really on the left bank of the kherson region, trying to break through... at least somewhere in the front and demonstrate victory, or some winning results for putin's so-called elections. now putin has to tell some fairy tales about pushing ukrainians away from the border, in fact, he should tell about the breakthrough and the deoccupation

of the entire donetsk region, for example, it would be much more powerful before the next election. of the emperor, all of the movement, but in reality they will not achieve, of course, their strategic goals, it is already clear, they there will actually be a month left, a little more , they will throw in even more resources, it will be a very tense situation in february, but i think that they will not achieve any operational success, after that they will really have to change with the beginning of spring and the end of the election campaign. .. to regroup, recover , carry out mobilization, clearly, because they lost a lot of people, a lot of equipment, so they will have to recover, and this period is very similar to the period that was last year, then also in winter wagnerites and regular forces tried to take

bakhmut, and then in the spring they stopped active hostilities and went on the defensive, at this time the ukrainian army began to conduct active offensives. actions, i think that this year this algorithm can be repeated, and the russians have even greater losses, in fact, because now there is no wagner, who would dispose of zekiv on such a scale, the soldiers of the regular units are being disposed of now, so the regular units will have to be restored again more intensively, for this it will be obvious, i repeat, to carry out mobilization for the ukrainian army, again, we cannot know and this year, i think, it is necessary to launch more e... disinformation into the information space, unlike last year, when in fact there in the online mode, we talked about the offensive and demanded all this information from the ministry of defense and the command, where our tanks went or defense personnel carriers, that is, here i think that the information policy

this year should also be modernized and adapted, but the fact that in the spring and summer of this ukraine will carry out offensive actions, for example, i do not doubt it, i do not care... repeated requests and proposals of our western partners to enter strategic defense. well, obviously, our capabilities will be correlated with how weapons, in particular ammunition, will arrive in ukraine, because today josep borel is the supreme representative of the european union for foreign policy, after the meeting of the defense ministers of the european union countries, he announced that the eu can supply ukraine . by march only 500, more than 500 thousand artillery shells instead of the promised million, let's listen to what george borel said. between last march and the beginning of this year, we delivered 330,000 rounds of ammunition, so we have a third of the target,

mainly from existing stocks. by march, i expect that number to increase by more than 200 thousand, thus reaching ... russia, because ... russia has more capabilities, of course, they connected north korea there, they take missiles there, still, but, eh , this means that the european union never even thought of going to war with russia, and now they are simply forced to march simply rebuild our entire economy, military-industrial complex and produce more and more ammunition, because if they are not enough and we are not enough, then the question arises: what will happen in the case of a direct conflict between russia and the european union? absolutely right, i think it is very

useful for europe, in conditions where the united states may even voluntarily give up its global leadership, well, that is, if under certain conditions the united states can withdraw into itself, declare that it has there is only one problem - it is mexican border, and in principle the european members of nato will be forced to defend themselves. and take care of its own security by its own means , which means that it is really necessary to have a defense-industrial system that provides ammunition, provides armored vehicles, provides all necessary military tools that could, together with ukraine, of course, with ukrainian potential, oppose russia and keep russia from an attack on europe, including, for example, on the baltic states, on poland or. well, let's say romania or bulgaria, that is, the task is up to so far, it has not been carried out seriously

, that is, even in 23 22, these measures were not carried out, and indeed the decision to release a million ammunition for ukraine was made only in march, borel said, i think that a purely political decision was made only in march, remember, there were discussions. between poland and france, who is supposed to finance who, they dragged out this time, well, somewhere until june, i think, or maybe july, and only then real funds began to arrive and they began to develop this production, then there is no surprise that they are now only in march they will fulfill half of the plan, they could not have time in six months to actually deploy new factories, find engineers, provide raw materials, components and so on, it is... such a simple matter to actually produce 1 million munitions, if the munitions industry

has actually been collapsing for 30 years, and now, in principle, there is a chance that the productivity of this european system, including ammunition, will increase already in geometric progression, that is, when the factories are built, or they have already been built, and the scaling of these production processes is simply will go back to normal. and indeed europe will be able, for example, to produce a million rounds of ammunition for ukraine by the end of the year, plus provide its armed forces at least partially, and if the united states still, after all, at least the 24th year they could withstand the same course as they supported ukraine before that, so ukraine could actually receive 2 million ammunition this year, which means that the ukrainian army could use about 5-6 thousand... e.e. shells per day, this is quite a decent level,

russia can now do even more to use, due to the fact that north korea actually, according to some data, the combined, combined capabilities of north korea and russia, they are somewhere 50 to 50, mean four or even more million munitions per year, and this, well, this means that europe itself and it will be difficult for ukraine... to stand up to such an alliance with this axis of evil, and therefore it is still desirable for the united states to remain the leader and still remain in our coalition, the western coalition, which is fighting the axis of evil. well, that's the end of our conversation, the military-industrial complex of ukraine, he but also, in principle, it should cover our needs, including artillery ammunition, what is the military at all now? is something happening in the industrial complex? yes , of course, it happens, but unfortunately, a lot of time was

lost, in fact, the ammunition industry began to develop only in the 19th and 20th years, and then there was no such impetus for really large-scale projects, and only literally there in 22 -in-23, already after the full-scale aggression, the processes began when we say that both 155 mm ammunition and... mortar mines began to be produced on such an industrial scale, there is, of course, hope that , well, let's say this, in a year or two, ukraine will be able to somehow... partially meet its needs, but it will definitely not be able to independently produce there, for example, a million or 2 million munitions, we see that the entire european union, let me remind you that germany, a powerful, superpower, and france, and italy, and the netherlands, that is, countries from the top ten economies of the world, that is, countries from the top ten economies of the world,

they cannot in a year, even more to establish the production of ammunition is sufficient quantity, what to say? about ukraine, which is in a difficult economic situation and in a state of war, that is, there are, let's say, plans, there are efforts, but it is obvious that we ourselves will not be able to do this, we will not be able to produce 2 million tons, 2 million pieces of shells, for example , after six months, there are absolutely no illusions here, we are now all waiting for the decision of the congress of the united states of america, regarding the opening of funding, and regarding this large amount of 61. billion dollars, and of course, internal problems in the united states of america do not allow to do this, how will it affect the armed forces of ukraine, our capabilities, and in particular the capabilities you talked about, not to stand on the defensive, but to do everything in order to exhaust the russian army, so that

it does not accumulate resources and opportunities for further offensive or further. mass strikes on the territory of ukraine, the logic of the process suggests that in fact those contracts that were financed last year and are being executed, well, yes, just like ammunition contracts, they were financed in the 23rd year, but are executed in on the 24th, and there are also contracts regarding the maintenance of, for example, our f-16s or glsdb supplies, which should already be in service with the armed forces and so on, that is, logic. the process suggests that such a failure will not happen immediately, that is, we have a chance to receive a certain amount of ammunition under the contracts of the 23rd year, to ensure, for example, the arrival of aviation, its maintenance for a certain time, the arrival of other tools, including long-range ones, that is, i i mean that, for example, in the 24th year there is still a chance to extend those contracts,

which were in the 23rd year and apply them in the 24th, but what will happen in the 25th, that the united states will not give money in the 24th, this means that, for example, even, well, i would say, maintenance f-16, which will enter service with the armed forces of ukraine, and the f-16 is a very delicate machine, it requires constant maintenance and is very expensive, and this means that, for example, without the support of the united states, europe, of course, can try to drag all this burden, and ukraine will try, but again, without these finances. resources of the united states in the 25th year or even at the end of the 24th year, there may be a real failure, a failure that can already categorically affect the situation at the front, and we will not be able to somehow compensate either with our own resources or european resources. thank you, mr. mykhailo, it was mykhailo samuts, a military expert. friends, we continue to work live on

the tv channel, and we are joined by dana yarova, deputy adviser to the deputy minister of defense of ukraine. member of the public anti-corruption council under the ministry of defense, ms. dano, i congratulate you and thank you for joining to our broadcast. greetings from ukraine, greetings from the studio. yesterday, ms. dano was unable to choose a preventive measure for liev, who worked in the ministry of defense and was involved in, let's say, embezzlement, in the higher anti-corruption court . hryvnias of shells for the armed forces, and this criminal scheme was with the managers of the lviv arsenal and several foreign companies. what can you tell us about this story, why are these anti-corruption cases so difficult and cases where people are suspected of embezzling huge sums

during the war, it's just catastrophic big sums, how the ministry of defense perceives the progress of these cases, and are there any safeguards to ensure that such devices and such sums, embezzlements of such a scale do not occur, let's say so, the lviv arsenal, it was inherited from the previous the head of the ministry of defense from... his preoccupation , let's say, on self-armament, and from those stories that took place in the ministry of defense in the 22nd year, i would not even consider the beginning of the war, because just at the beginning of the war, i think that more or less everything was, you know, it was very hot, everyone tried to do

everything they could, but according to my observations , somewhere from may 22, they started, you know, when it's dark in the room, you can't see absolutely anything that's happening, and we all know that i will buy the ministry of... were brought out, let's say, visibility zones, yes, people who, who were observed there, for example, by security, this is what was happening on prozoro, of course, the purchase of weapons will always be with more, let's say , with greater nuances, is closed to the average citizens, and that's right, but the case of the lviv arsenal is so, you know, so simple, i don't even know how to characterize it, the fact is that at the beginning of the full-scale invasion we had three special exporters, arms trade

in general a very regulated process, and literally at the beginning of the war, special exporters became special importers in one day, we started buying a lot of weapons, and at some point such a company as lviv arsenal appears in itself, which has never in its activity... not never engaged in the purchase of arms, at one point in one day she receives a license to carry out such activities, but she does not have a license to contract with the supplier that they declared and that they gave their commercial offer, and also did not have a license to carry weapons on the territory of other countries, these are mandatory documents, those that simply... it is impossible without which to start any process at all, but the process was started, this company made an offer to the ministry of defense, the offer was accepted, in one

on the day a decision was made on an advance in the amount of 97%, this is minus the commission of the lviv arsenal itself, and in this way the cost went abroad, why is it so difficult now, well, i had a very question in general... it was a long time ago, when these documents already arrived to the law enforcement agencies, and they got there at the beginning of our activity, it was still the spring of the 23rd year, i had only one question, why is the issue of the lviv arsenal still not proven, at least to the law enforcement, no criminal cases have been initiated, not what before the court has not been proven, because there we have a more complex story with a more complex evidence base, here you just know everything, absolutely everything is clear. absolutely everything, well, i don’t know , simpler is impossible, but why do you now say, well, the measure of prevention has been changed, there is

a nuance here that may have been taken into account during the opening of this criminal case, but i think that it may somehow be, let’s say so , corrected, it is that this criminal case was opened in absentia, essentially nabu, and. in connection with the fact that nabu has not opened a criminal case, this one will be opened, this one the criminal case was opened by the national police, sorry, yes , the national police, together with the security service of ukraine and together with the ministry of defense, will there be any , shall we say, further consideration of this criminal case in the way that we all would like, that the guilty should be brought to justice in the end ended up being responsible for the embezzlement of a large sum of money, i'll tell you, it's not even in the amount . in the number of artillery shells, you understand, this is, well, whose life is it, it’s just the life of people who were not covered by artillery at

some point, if it didn’t sound pathetic, even if we move away from the option of money, we will come to the option of the price of a person's life, and i would really like to, and i will say this here, on my behalf, i have probably been communicating with everyone since may.' authorities regarding this case, and frankly speaking, i can only wish our law enforcement agencies to bring this case to court, and demand from the court, well , we have such, you know, a very complicated court system, so that there is no conditional judge-wolf, who will say that everything was fine, unfortunately, we will not see part of the funds, they have already come out, there is an investigation, i na... has the right to tell, but we will not return them, and part of the funds were seized from the accounts of the lviv arsenal, and after the completion of the judicial, judicial proceedings.

cases, they must be returned to the ministry of defense. here is such a story, but there are many such stories, i will say this, what fuses, well, today there are such, let's say this, you know, we now have more, even fuses, and more, such big problems with payment discrepancies or with disapproval of contracts, precisely because people are afraid to put their signatures one or another document. but it is not a question of whether the contract is bad or good, it is a question of the development methodology, the development of the methodology, the identification of risks, this is the main thing, as soon as the methodology is developed in the ministry of defense and the risk assessment methodology is agreed with all law enforcement agencies, then we will be able to assess them normally, because now i see the ministry of defense as the reverse side of this coin, when

we have a completely transparent contract. approvals are not passed with our manufacturers because there are caveats. very briefly, if i may ms. dana, how can it be, so many anti-corruption bodies, so many controllers, and such large contracts with such risks were concluded with the lviv arsenal, with the grenkevich family, that is, what does this indicate? well, what can i say, all these scandals. these are scandals, when, these, all these contracts, excuse me, these are contracts from just the period, until that grandiose scandal in the month of february ripened in the eggs, and after which some such, you know, we started a smoke screen, a little bit drive away from the ministry of defense and sharpen, but as i always say, i am very sorry that rizniuk was taken down for the eggs due to the poor quality of the jacket,

and not taken down for the lviv... arsenal and not taken down for the polish company alfa, but for that i am very sorry, but i will tell you honestly, but it looks like some shooters are responsible for it, those who put signatures there, the minister is not responsible for it, and i understand what you are talking about, but until they are interviewed and the suspicions are written out , the people who put their personal signatures should leave on the person who controlled this and, shall we say, agreed to this process, is not possible. let's hope that after all, i will even say it now, maybe something seditious, under the pressure of our western partners, after all , the people who are currently under investigation, they will start talking to those people who told them to conclude such a contract, but without political will, without such a will of the minister of defense, this could not have happened, right? well , i will tell you now, the assumption is my own, but it is not supported by anything, i cannot say anything

about it... at the moment the ministry of defense was closed to everyone, including the public thank you for the inclusion, it was this yarova volunteer, adviser to the deputy minister of defense of ukraine. friends, we work live on the tv channel, as well as on our youtube and facebook platforms. for those currently watching on social media, please like our video. don't skimp, it's needed to promote our content on youtube and facebook. well, take part in our survey. today we ask you about whether it is necessary to block the accounts of petitioners and deprive them of the right to drive a car, like this provided for by the government bill on mobilization. 56% yes, 44% - no, we have such intermediate results on television, during the television broadcast, then we will conduct this survey in the second part of our program, 15 minutes after

the bbc news release, we will have political experts ihor reiterovich on the air. viktor boberenko and viktor shlinchak. let's talk about the specter of the parliamentary crisis, about what is happening in the military leadership and in the civilian leadership and between them. in short , it will be interesting, stay with us, we will meet in 15 minutes. will ukrainian refugees who are currently in poland be released abroad, or can poland reduce or even cancel aid to ukrainians? let's analyze together in today's edition of bbc ukraine. i am olga polamaryuk. a million ukrainians found refuge from the war in poland, but everything can change in just a month.