this is not the same, not a disruption of the situation, no, not a resignation, no, a collapse, but some such , perhaps even more dangerous, successive destruction of authority, bringing the person himself to some insecurity, to a decrease in charisma, and this is also bad for the country and for the states, well, you correctly mentioned... chuk and yushchenko, because in principle, well , there was a similar scenario somewhere, kuchma, however, did it much faster and lightning-fast, regarding resignations, that is, he did not think much about it, in this situation, i understand that the current team is focused on sociology and on, well, they look at it like a movie, that is, they measure every day , some measurements are made by sociologists. and

according to this they are moving forward, you mentioned that zaluzhny did not declare his political ambitions, but if this resignation happens, regardless of what mariana bezugla wrote about him, i think that 90% of people they don't even know what bezugla wrote about zaluzhny, i think that in a situation where zaluzhny is removed from office... he will already be zelensky's competitor in the political field, i'm not even talking about the presidency, because again, we don't know which one is the political leader, we don't know what kind of presidential candidate he might be there, we know that he is the commander-in-chief of the armed forces of ukraine, that he's doing his job, there's still an army he's leading, and he's proven himself a good commander-in-chief in two years, right? and in general it is important

now to talk about whether one of the leaders of the people's trust will be useful there, because the rating is political, it depends on the people's of trust, or will he have outside the armed forces, or is the rating of trust in the serviceman a rating of trust in the armed forces? well, that's what we're talking about in such a hypothetical plane, but since a lot has already been written about it... well-known western sources from which they have significant access to information about marchuk himself, he didn't plan to become a public politician, he became the prime minister and yushchenko once worked there. yushchenko was nominated, pushed into politics, he had no other way out, but the most important thing is that... there are great

expectations, that is, what i see today in in the information space, in social networks, there is a very big demand for a diligent politician, and he will not be allowed to remain somewhere in the shadows, his, his, actually, his potential electorate, his potential group of social support, she will force him to engage in politics, well, he must remember that the same marchuk, he was walking in the field'. that is, he did not go into politics when he was the prime minister of ukraine, but in his political activities he went under the slogan of the third force, the country needs a third force, a strong hand, that is, the general who is there ready to go to the end, although he did not go to the end, because in 1999 it all looked a little differently, can we say, mr. maksym, that in... nazaluzhny already has

conditional political power, because people who fight, one way or another, they identify themselves as some kind of force, a separate force that is not political, it is clear that the army and politics are different things, especially during war, but still these people, which can be this basis for the future, for the future campaign. useful in politics, it is not known when, when this force may appear, it is not known when the elections will be held, it is not known when the hard worker will be able to protest this, or his entourage, but can it be predicted that such a project is on time, and again, this is again a rating of trust in those who are fighting, well, in general, it of course, if you take the world experience there. yes, recent history

, including in different countries, is a classic of the genre, that is, a popular general enters politics with his team, so to speak... the military, security forces, begin to play a leading role in the political arena, but this is still characteristic of, well, let's say , not very developed countries, it is characteristic of young democracies, which are unlikely to become democracies, that is , it is very uncharacteristic for ukraine , we have never had a military elite, actually, a military elite eh... a political entity, unlike, for example, the same turkey, where since the time of atatürk, the military has been a very influential, very influential corporation, with which erdogan has only just now begun to deal there, 100 years after of how

they strengthened their positions and established them, this is not the case in ukraine, therefore , answering the question directly, it seems to me that in... in his professional environment, zaluzhnyi is unlikely to find his political team, it is certain that it will be structured according to traditional ukrainian political cleavages, as it is called in political science, or divisions, and a certain part of the ukrainian political, administrative, business elite, which, well... which has traditional methods, traditional interests, and traditional political positioning, that is, i see this very scenario as the most likely, it is unlikely to be a gathering of generals, i would say so. next week, mr. maksym, the verkhovna rada of ukraine should begin consideration of the updated

draft law on mobilization, but the question of mobilization is called one of those cornerstones that zelensky and zaluzhny did not allow. there to find common points of contact, zaluzhnyi, they say, wanted to mobilize and called the number of people they wanted to recruit into the army 500,000, the man, in fact, the same zaluzhnyi said that it won't happen all at once, that it will be stretched over time, but one thing is clear now, that the bill on mobilization, it will not be enough... however , for zelensky himself, because if he does not participate and is not the leader of this process, as the supreme commander-in-chief, then there are a lot of questions for him, as the supreme commander-in-chief, precisely for the supreme commander-in-chief, because this is his sphere of competence, if he thinks about

his political future and with this law, something will happen that is not will allow put it into effect, i don't... it may simply not be signed this law, like the unsigned law on lowering the age threshold for mobilized, i.e. from 27 to 25, this law is also not signed by zelensky, how much is this political expediency or impracticality on the part of of the presidential team will affect the mobilization, and, accordingly, the course of the russian-ukrainian war, because we understand that this means the finalization, or shall we say, the intermediate finalization of the russian-ukrainian war? mr. maksym, in general, this whole story is about this bill, and the story with this concept

of mobilization and so on, it raises a lot of questions, that is, when it all started, i had a question, well, is it possible... it was worse to do this in terms of information in this whole company than the way it was done, i.e. first there were videos about how tsc employees grab people on the street, push them into buses, and that is, first the tsc was compromised, then there were rumors about some draconian norms of the future law at the rumor level. they spread then a discussion began between zelenskyi and zaluzhny, i.e. it is difficult to imagine a worse scenario of promoting or selling such a law to the public, the question also arises

regarding the necessity, i.e. well, in our country mobilization was announced on february 24 , 2022 and... no one interfered and did not forbade the next waves of mobilization, that is, there are different ones, they explained to us all the time that there is a strategy, certain... alities and so on and so forth, there is a certain plan, and then suddenly everything froze, everything depends on the adoption of some kind of law, in which very ambiguous norms that either will work or won't work, all of this is more similar if summed up to some kind of political technology, so who launched such a political technology, and what is it, what is it leading our society to? i still do not see clearly, that is, it is either a prepared

lowering of the expectations of society, which should not, well, we remember how we all thought about the great victory, which is about to happen , about our huge superiority over the russians on the field battle and so on, but this is the story of this mobilization, it seems very interesting to me significantly lowered expectations in ukrainian. in society and so on, and it may have even brought us closer to peace negotiations or to another way of freezing this conflict, well, this is such a conspiracy, but what can be said is already on the surface today, this is actually the last article -e of general zaluzhny in the economist, which spread through cnn and then er... in social networks it was quoted a lot, says that we need a technological advantage,

we need a technological breakthrough, and to some extent this is already a shift of attention and a shift emphasis on mobilization on the defense industry, let's say so, so how this situation with the law on mobilization will develop, and how it will be connected, for example, with the history of relations with... zelenskyi and zaluzhnyi, it is difficult to say today, but certain things are already visible, a certain plot twist, i would say so, in this story, and perhaps this bill will not have such a fateful character, as it seemed to us a month ago. thank you, mr. maksym, it was maksym, a smart, political expert, doctor of political sciences. friends, we live on the espresso tv channel and also on... platforms on youtube and facebook, for those who are watching us there now, please like this video and

also subscribe to our pages on these platforms, in addition, during we conduct a survey on all our broadcasts , we ask you about such things, whether there are problems with freedom of speech in ukraine, what do you think, everything is quite simple on youtube, yes no, or write your comment in the comments under this video if you watch our telecast . take it in your hands smartphone and vote. everything is quite simple. if you believe that such problems exist in ukraine, 0800 2110-381, no 0800-211-382. all calls to these numbers are free. vote. at the end of the program, we will sum up the results of this vote. next, we will be in touch with oleksandr musienko, director of the center for military legal research, mr. oleksandr. i welcome you and thank you for being with us today. i congratulate you. this week has passed. seam under the sign of general zaluzhnyi, whether he will go into politics or not in the future is unknown, but the fact that we see support, and in

social networks, and in the society of general zaluzhny, probably indicates that the rating of trust in zaluzhny is the rating of trust in the armed forces of ukraine. today , the verkhovna rada rate was held. commander, zaluzhnyi spoke there, reported on the situation at the front, as reported by the office of the president of ukraine, the issue of his resignation was not on the supreme commander-in-chief's agenda. in your opinion, is this resignation delayed in time, or will this resignation not happen, or after testing, relatively speaking, informational testing society, just the top. will the commander in chief just give it up?

well, i will say that i do not understand the hype around the rate from the beginning, because the rate is not authorized to consider these issues, and the president does not need the opinion of the rate in order to make certain decisions, that is, it is already a matter of legislation and certain precisions. i think it was heated because it was brought up to the fact that under the event of the stake and that there the president should stand in the ... announce that i'm changing the commander in chief, i don't think what's going to happen in the end, so actually that's an open question, i think, to some extent, because... well, let's put it this way, it seems to me that there are some differences in terms of further approaches to the conduct of hostilities, and to the concept of these hostilities , and in general to the evaluation of the campaign, how it should be based on the resources we currently have, or on which we count on, and so on, a whole set of issues, perhaps

an understanding will be reached on these issues, and there is absolute agreement between the president of ukraine and volodymyr . zelenskyi and the commander-in-chief of the armed forces of ukraine, general zaluzhnyi. well, but the fact that , let's say this, these disagreements are certain from the point of view that they sometimes arise even in the public plane, it is noticeable, in fact, and it is also noticeable from the point of view of some military-political assessments of the situation and so on . so i think this question is still open. it's really hard to say what time it is. whether in the short term or in the longer term, for today this intrigue may be preserved in a certain way, although i think it is possible that it will go a little somewhere information space, but here is the question , you understand, here is not only a question of resignation or not resignation, here is a question of understanding, assessing the situation and moving in the same direction, that is what

is important, that is, unity is extremely important, because there may not be... resignation , but if there is a situation of misunderstanding and disagreement on certain fundamental issues, this is also not the best type of interaction and cooperation, as it seems to me, but if, let's say, we look at this situation, there is a civilian leadership, a political leadership, there is a military leadership, well, during the war in in principle, apparently, the military leadership has more competence than the civilian one, the question is not in... competence, well, in order to assess whether the commander is doing the right thing or not, the question is that, if we are moving towards nato, then i want to remind that what some military people don't like, i know it's not very impressive when we have the role of the ministry of defense or something, but this is how we have written legislation according to nato standards. if we want

a different system, we want a management system and, for example, there, as in russia or in others states, then we have... to say that we are abandoning the goal of joining the north atlantic alliance. decision-making, you see, is a very difficult thing from the point of view that for all actions, for any actions, the first person, the supreme commander, will always be responsible, and on his shoulders all the responsibility, both civil and military, as it were was not and so on, and therefore, of course, that understanding and evaluating the complex of this. certain decisions are adopted or not adopted, well, strictly speaking, this is also a question of delimiting the function of power, and i i want to say that those who say that there is a military, which is understood, i want to tell you, there are historical examples that do not always testify in favor of the management

of the military affairs of the state, the management of military affairs, yes, but of the entire state. the examples are different, eh, let's go back to what is happening in russia now, because the internal expectations and internal discussions around the military leadership of ukraine distract us from what putin himself declares, because this week he announced that will create a demilitarized zone between russia and ukraine, and the state department of the united states of america. reacting to the idea of ​​the russian dictator, stated that for this russia needs to demilitarize the occupied parts of ukraine. let's listen to this statement. there is no such statement, i am told. the very fact that putin says that there is a demilitarized zone

that will make it possible to secure russian cities and russian... territory from the shots of the armed forces of ukraine, from missiles, from drones, everything else, but on the other hand, mr. oleksandr, if we have long-range missiles, then it turns out that the demilitarized zone will be the size of the whole of ukraine. well, yes, well, this is, strictly speaking, an aspiration, that is, putin has once again confirmed his goals, an aggressive military campaign of war against ukraine, that... demilitarization is needed, that is, he does not deviate from it, moreover, well, in general, this is the statement right now i connect with such three points, nevertheless, turn. note that reuters admits that ukrainian drone strikes for two weeks have reduced exports of the russian oil and oil and gas industry

, it is important, and this is an assessment by reuters, that is, it is an assessment not only ours, that is, it is an assessment in general of a-a neutral media, that is, a neutral party, and therefore it seems to me that this is an important moment, they began to teach of russia, and thus putin recognizes... the increase in ukrainian capabilities and capabilities to strike, that is, the increase in the capabilities of our defense forces, which are implementing a successful strategy to strike the russian oil and gas industry, their industry in general, and because i well remember putin's reaction to the strikes at that time, you remember, in may 23, they tried to hit the kremlin tower and so on, well, he said so, well, i think, something flew there and so on. then he didn't say anything else, it's obvious that it hurt them, and it's obvious that these questions are being asked, they arose more urgently, this is the first moment,

the second moment, it seems to me that putin used this factor to say, look, well war is, as it were , defensive in our country, we have to defend ourselves, we have to defend ourselves all the more, because we have drones released, so let's families in danger and let's consolidate and continue. well, this is just a statement against the background of the election campaign that we will continue to work on demilitarization, create a demilitarized zone, and so on and so forth, that is, in this direction there are three components, which, as a matter of fact, as i see it it seems to be explained, but first, in the first place, this is what i would say, here is this statement by putin, this is a confirmation that the strikes on their oil and gas facilities ... there is a movement in the right direction, which means that you definitely need to move along this path. the commander-in-chief of the armed forces of ukraine valery zaluzhnyi in his column for cnn

emphasized the problems with ammunition at the front, in particular due to the imperfect system of weapons production in ukraine. what zaluzhny wrote: we remain limited by the imperfection of the regulatory and legal framework in our country, as well as the partial monopolization of defense. industry, this leads to bottlenecks in production, for example, ammunition, which further deepens ukraine's dependence on its allies in matters of supply, and ukraine has informed its allies that it is facing a critical shortage of artillery shells, as russia uses three times more firepower on the front every day, this is already written by bloomberg. the question of ammunition, the question of weapons is quite relevant in 2024, no less than the question of mobiles. or the question of the future commander-in-chief of the armed forces of ukraine, watching the latest decisions

of the european union and our western european partners, what can you to say, mr. oleksandr, whether the ukrainian army and ukraine will not fall into the crosshairs of the political struggle, including in the united states of america, and whether everything will be enough to... deter the russian invaders, because this is what we are talking about right now. first, it must be said that despite everything, the production of shells and ammunition in europe will increase. well, this was confirmed by the head of the european commission, ursula fonderlein, who clearly said that additional contracts are still being signed and production will continue. that is, it is at least when we are talking about europe,. a demonstration of the efforts of the countries of the european union, that they are really increasing production volumes, and this is confirmed, that is, this issue

remains on the agenda, the only thing that is worth understanding here is that the issue of increasing production and increasing it is always the same issue time, and this is a moment, unfortunately , from which there is nowhere to go, because in order to systematically increase now, it really takes... a certain time, and you see that the plans that are there, they are calculated based on that for the next year it will exceed 2 million the production of projectiles, for this year for 100 thousand , for 100 thousand projectiles by the countries of europe, that is , it is actually increased for three years and there in the future it is possible even up to 3 million, this is only in the european union, well , the ordinary united states is also important here, because if we are talking about a million 200. for this year only by europe, but if the united states joined with funding and with all the possibilities, maybe it would be a million 500, and that is already, well, let's say, completely different.

number and further by increasing, that is, this process it continues, we are now at a difficult moment, when we received a large number of weapons that were in warehouses in european countries, and we used them, well, to a large extent, because the war is quite intense, we all know that, and now the moment, when it is launched, production has already started and we have to wait, that's how they build up, and, by the way, we are now competing with the aggressor state, with russia, because... they declared an increase in the production of shells, but putin is going to north korea , that is, putin will ask for shells in north korea, because their production is also not keeping up, and we are competing, we have now also entered the stage from the point of view of competition here, who will increase faster, in total europe and the usa are able to do it faster than russia and north korea, but of course for this now

the key issue still... there remains the united states and the $61 billion aid package, because in the united states there is a significant production of 155 mm, but now this is an issue, well, we know, it is the same with funding and politics, and south korea, if the united states the states managed to convince, it is now a top, she is among the top ten producers, this country is a secret of shells and other types of weapons that we would also need. by the way, today is politics. the publication wrote that ukraine has also announced and will increase the production of shells, well, this is also what the commander-in-chief of the armed forces of ukraine, general zaluzhnyi, says that this should be done, well, we all understand, obviously there is no need for any argument here, why this it must be done, the difficulties of the transition are the same for 155 mm, we did not use it before and we did not produce for 155 mm, but now it has already started, well...

in fact, since the end of last year , since the beginning of this year, well, there are many questions, why we did not prepare for this, this is the first, there is another question about why europe did not expect this and why europe did not think that there would be such a big war, and that maybe they will have to fight with russia, as they are saying now, that is , we have partially taken away all ammunition stocks of western europe, and their production. state does not have enough ammunition to even support itself already, so how can you explain how the intelligence services, the western intelligence services could not have foreseen this, well the point is, the point is, you understand that everything is very simple, no one calculates, the europeans still do not calculate that they need artillery as a determining

means, they know the plans well. of the cold war, and know that a breakthrough in europe was possible, and soviet plans included the use of tactical nuclear weapons. without the use of tactical nuclear weapons , the soviet union did not consider the possibilities and chances of actually breaking through the line there, the corridor in the fulda area in germany , and breaking through to the exit to denmark in the same way as they planned to block the baltic sea, and then to the south in fact. through the balkans and further or to france, that is, they did not consider the scenario that it would be impossible to break through otherwise than with the help of tactical nuclear weapons, so the west considered the scenario of the active use of aviation in the airland battle doctrine in order to counter and strike, where did the idea come from to produce a10 attack aircraft, warthogs, so -called american ones, it was an idea that

the west decided that... they could not compete with the soviet one at that time.