freiburg fell in love with this city. we are waiting, but this is not what we are talking about, we are talking about something else. what do you think, thank you for joining our broadcast, mr. mykhailo, but what do you think, what development will be the fact that the americans and the british, with the british, will bomb the iraqi bases of iranian people, the iranian armed forces or. ksir is there, that is, these guards of the islamic revolution, and we see that something is going on, something is happening, will there be an escalation of the conflict, can we imagine something other than missiles and planes, well, in whom they there are missiles and airplanes, they will fly there, others will fly drones and all kinds of ballistic missiles that they are developing, now the situation is like this, to put it briefly, but... the americans

had the idea to withdraw troops from iraq, and now the prem iraq demands this, they even handed the note to the americans, that is, imagine what the americans have achieved in 20 years of politics, but the question is how it will affect the withdrawal of these troops, there are not so many of them left, but it is obvious they will be relocated somewhere in jordan, in saudi arabia, that is, the americans will definitely not go far from there, now it is a game of muscles and... an attempt to feel out possible proxy wars, that is, how far small groups armed with unmanned aerial vehicles and ballistic missiles can go, which do not need any super training and super maintenance, on the one hand, on the other, how effectively the american military machine and the british one will resist it. it seems to me that there will be no significant changes in the coming year, but nerves they will do to biden.

very important before the elections, because if he were to give back , then it would give trump to trump and would go very far ahead, it would also give trump to trump, because the war costs a lot of money, and the americans, we see now with the support of ukraine and israel, are in no hurry to allocate it, that's why here is such a fork for putting it on the same board in some way, this last week there have been quite intense conversations. there is talk that iraq wants the americans to leave, the americans also want to leave, there are announcements that they will leave, and then suddenly what begins begins, and then to it's just that the tension in this area of ​​the globe continued, they start shooting, intensify their actions, the americans do not leave, and accordingly the tension remains as it is today, and no one wants de-escalation? does not seek de-escalation

, iran has everything secured, iran seeks pressure in order to have future agreements on the lifting of sanctions and even greater sales of its oil, but the american side, accordingly, is also trying to show strength somewhere, but not so much as to directly enter into a clash with iran , that is, all parties have their own interests, and this game can continue for quite a long time, they just look at the internal political situation in the states, well, and again at... russia to ukraine, the more doubts there are about the help of the west, the more such different policies in the middle east, because they take advantage of the weakness and see that there is no proper assessment, there is no proper military response. first , the houthis began, then this attack, well, i wouldn’t dramatize it either, since this is not the first attack on the americans in all the years of their missions in the middle east, there were much more tragic events, starting... with the blowing up

of barracks in lebanon and ending with the war in iraq, but, well, they bear those losses, because in principle they are calculated in them, that is, that which can hardly be avoided in such a region, you can even remember their actions in syria, they worked much more actively there 5-7 years ago, the question is whether america will return now or not, whether biden will deploy something more significant even with the same houthis, will there be such a point-blank beat somewhere, well here is the question... most likely, but, but mr. mykhailo, look, eh, this shows that it is almost impossible to heal, when you think that maybe they will move the bases to jordan or to saudi arabia, i immediately remembered bin laden for some reason, of the deceased, who began to rise from the fact that he accused the royal saudi family of the fact that on... on the land

of the prophets, on the land, the holy land, some crusaders appeared, bin laden ideolo'. he started with this, he lived peacefully, he is a saudi, well, you know that, no worse than me, even better, and if he was stirred and and pushed into that terrorist, into the terrorist path that he was on, precisely because, like this, these crusaders are the latest to come to our holy land, and we have to unite, now the americans will come again, a new bin laden will be found again, and what started at the beginning will begin again. yes, bin laden belonged to a family that successfully conducted business in the usa, he himself helped to fight against the soviets in afghanistan, it is more likely now we will look at, for example, the prime minister iraq, mohammedani, who collaborated with the americans against hussein, is complete, and

now he is already telling the americans to take them out of there, that is, we will see such offended people who can go on the counter and run over there to the side of russia or china, in fact. saudi arabia at one time dealt with internal problems thanks to the support of the west, especially this alisau family, yes, simply, in short, saudi arabia held on to an alliance of tribes that swore loyalty to this dynasty, so when they have there in the 80s 90's there were various kinds of movements, then they were defeated not without the support of the west, and now this continues, there are american troops there constantly since the beginning of the 90s, from the beginning. hussein's attack on saudi arabia and kuwait, the american troops are now continuing in qatar, and it's not just that they don't want the americans to leave there, but they understand that if the americans leave, iran will become a much more powerful opponent, they will have to play with

china will have to play with russia, that is, so many americans will not come because of oil control and everything, and there is a lot to look forward to, but at the moment we are seeing a lot of liberalization in the kingdom of saudi arabia, what is happening in saudi arabia now is not at all the saudi arabia of 20 years ago, there are a lot of rights and freedoms appeared, including much more liberal interpretations of the alliance, well, but also a lot of opponents, such conservative clerics, who are still sitting in prisons just because they did not agree with this party line in some way, i have you strange question, absolutely... negative, but different i don't have any questions for you yet, i'm sorry, it follows from your words that even if israel had not been created in 47-48, the situation in that region would still be the same as it is now,

well, maybe it was a little less degree, that is, not in israel, if, the question is either not only, or not primarily... first of all, the question is in israel, tell me, there is no israel, everything is the same, here we have palestine completely on the territory of israel, here we have saudi arabia, there is jordan, syria, iran, iraq, everything, everything is like this, and even if there were not all these escalations, bombings, houthis and so on and so on? it would be, and the reference point was 1921-24, this is the defeat in... the first world ottoman empire, the collapse of the ottoman empire, support, including pro-arab forces, from the british side, that is, it was already a redistributed region that received independence within those limits , those borders that were drawn by the colonizers, let's look at the borders between many

arab countries, they resemble a straight line, why did the colonizers draw like that, and let's even look at the flags, the same palestinian flag, by the way, it is not of some... autochthonous origin, it was developed by arab nationalists not without the support of british forces, that is, these levers of conflict were laid, and when aramco, an american-arab oil company, began to work in the 40s and 50s, when the famous , the well-known negotiations between the american president and the saudi king back in the 40s, then the countdown of these alliances had already begun, followed by the cold war. and israel was only one of the factors, so significant, not so much israel, as the anti-israel policy, on which they speculate, in the public space, criticizing israel, in fact, having good relations with it, the emirates, as an example, and it is difficult here. another

question is no less speculative. when a ukrainian speaks to a ukrainian, as you and i do, or even over a beer, and one says to... the other: you were betting, you used this word, betting, then such an illusion can arise that it was possible in the 21st century 24 years old to roll differently. i have the impression that there are no good options for any post-colonial situation, there simply aren’t any, you can do it that way, or you can to do otherwise, there britain embraced, let’s say, yes, the arab world, the muslim world, and if it had also embraced not the arab world, but the jewish one, then no matter what, everything would have blossomed there and everything would have been beautiful, i mean ... i have the impression that any option is impossible, it's not just bad or good, it's just

the way it is, and whatever, if you put the pieces on the chessboard in a different way, nothing good will come of it. well, the first world war destroyed three empires: austrian, ottoman and russian. next, what happened on these spaces, we see, that is, this departure of the imperial hegemon, it absolutely does not always bring positives, because... in fact, the hegemon remains, people with traumatic consciousness remain, people remain who, conditionally say, got what they did not expect. it is clear that here you can reach the completely opposite position, there consider the collapse of the soviet union as a disaster, they say that there were no international issues in the soviet union, although we all know very well how acute they were, if not for them, then probably the post-soviet future would be different, but specifically in the case of the near east. the fact is that the big players have retained their interests there, and in many ways the local political

elites hold on to them. it is the same if we take, for example, middle or central asia. if you remove russia, from kazakhstan to turkmenistan, it will all disappear literally in a month or two. but it holds, and likewise, for example, the architecture of the modern middle east, it does not hold on china, after all, it does not hold on the european left there or right-wingers who talk about isolation. it rests on the same british and americans, an example is egypt, when abdel-fattah assisi essentially came to power on such western conventional bayonets, not literal, but nevertheless, so these are things that are happening, they are realities, and for now i it seems that simply in such a situation of turbulence, will even more regimes think about their stability, investments in the army, but again... not so much that this army will later reach the level of the elite, as it happened in turkey and did not

some kind of coup, i.e. there too, thank you very much, thank you very much, thank you mykhailo yakubovich , orientalist, candidate of historical sciences, researcher at the oriental studies department of the university of freiburg, thank you once again mr. mykhailo, yes, we theorized quite briskly, now there will be advertising, and then georgia, in this order. there are discounts on pairs of villages of 20% in pharmacies plantain you and save. oh, and got wet. would you like some tea? mom, dad, what to do in order not to get sick? vitamin c, d3, zinc. and the main thing - quercitin for strengthening blood vessels just take quertin immuno. all in one package. in one capsule, four components together. so easy. so convenient, quertin immuno. why am i here i have sensitive

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branch of the center for the study of the army of disarmament conversion from tbilisi, i am the first question that i would ask to... good health, mr. volodymyr, thank you for taking the time for us, the first question that i would ask , i hear constantly, when i see current events in georgia, i think about saakashvili, who is sitting in prison, and he has been sitting in prison, and what could it be, that is, there is such a bidzina ivanishvili sitting, who came to power by criticizing saakashvili , because he usurped power, this saakashvili. such a scoundrel is retreating, he sits down, then he says: i have already left politics, then he returns to politics again, puts this prime minister, this speaker and says: i left politics again, then he returns again, says: now i will change their places , the prime minister will be the speaker, the speaker will be the prime minister, and what was possible

, saakashvili asks me mentally, not about not going to the elections , hiding somewhere... in the shadows and from time to time rearranging all the main figures on the board, i.e. this is what georgians think about what has been happening in georgia for a week, this is absurd some? my, my congratulations, well, if we talk about absurdity, then it has been going on for more than a week, and according to your preamble, i want to say, you are now asking or answering, i don't know myself, i got confused, there are some answers, well, regarding the loaf. ivanishvili, he really is the master of the country, he really hasn't left any politics since 2012, that is, it's not about positions, it's not about checkers, it's about going, that's why he controls absolutely all processes, and this medical fact, and why he decided, for example,

to return to politics officially, as if, again, well, there are a lot of opinions here, because, for example,... he may be threatened by something now in georgia, it is, well, exclusively not even in internal party showdowns, but let's say, in showdowns around his closest entourage and the possible strengthening of some players who are completely under his control, he did not change the speaker with the prime minister, but he changed the chairman of the georgian dream party, i.e. iraklii grybashvili becomes the head of the party, and iraklii kabakhidze becomes the prime minister, i.e. it is... in view of the actions benzina ivanishvili, we should really talk about cosmetics, these are cosmetic actions, then let's talk a little about conspiracy, literally thesaurus, already ex-prime minister, now he is considered the main asset and lobbyist of china in georgia , iraklii goryboshvili, on the screen this kind of subjectivity

is beyond abinzinishvili's control, did it become a reason for his decision, well... it is possible to open the question. there is another point, the end of last year was marked, let's say, by the conflict and pressure from the united states, primarily and in general by the west in gasoline ivanishvili personally, as it manifested itself. sanctions were imposed, for example, against a person close to him, ex-prosecutor general otar parskhaladze, who is considered for benzin to be one of the communicators with moscow and the kremlin, that is, this, let's say, scandal for... extinguish, they faked the sanctions through the georgian legislation, i.e. they gave him a few days to transfer assets to relatives, and then there, even here there was a scandal when the national bank of georgia refused to comply with sanctions there from the united states and even there the top managers of the famous georgian banks sakartvelo, tbc, even

the card of the bank that belongs to bizinavishila, resigned, there were very, very interesting ... processes related to this, and again, in the mode of conspiracy, maybe iraklibashvili, well, there was one of the conditions there , a change of export, let it be in negotiations with the united states, but here again it is absurd, why, because, because the new prime minister irakli kahidze, well , right-wing georgian analysts who say that he well, even more toxic for the west and for the united states than already ex-prime minister, that's why here... well, let's put it this way, these moves, they look quite illogical, as you say, absurd, well, the situation looks in such a way that ivanishvili's wife wants to die. this year, when there will be basic parliamentary elections in georgia, wants to pass relatively calmly. i think that this is not the last , it may not be the last reshuffle, not the last

change of the prime minister or any of the top politicians, please note that nothing has changed in the government at all, only the minister of defense has been changed, that is, they are appointing, please, to to my shame, i forgot the last name of this moldovan politician, i think it's ukrainian. with a surname that is also, like, like , like a poor man, there was someone in moldova like plakhatnyuk, plakhatnyuk, plakhatnyuk, yes, and he too was, was, was, was, played, played, played, played, played, for many years , for several years, but then he attacked moldova, transnistria , moscow, washington, brussels, kyiv, the whole world, and bucharest as well, this is possible, because that's what you... ecuadorians on the opposite side, i would just laughed, because it's kind of

absurd, there is no country, there is no country, in the country no, no, no, that is, an unofficial person known to everyone governs the country as if it combines the prime minister, the president, the general prosecutor, the national bank and the whole world, well... this does not happen in the world, if it's not, if it's maybe a little democratic world, well, you mentioned the case of plakhatniuk, i remember, i remember the last name, i don't like frontal analogies, well, first of all, for benzin ivanishvili, this is a nightmare, but he is such a scenario , it is true, but it is unrealistic, why, well, the first point, the local maya sandu is not visible in georgia, at all is not visible. under plakhatniuk there in moldova the internal political life was quite lively, the main asset of binzinashvili and his georgian dream party is the complete

dispersion of efforts and the impotence of the local opposition, they are unable to unite even before the execution, this is a georgian phenomenon now. mikheil saakashvili, mikheil saakashvili is now, understand, this is the shame of georgia as such, the shame of georgia as such, pro-government, opposition, whatever... because the party is a single national movement, the opposition party, the only one that according to the ratings now according to sociology, it is the only one that overcomes the five percent barrier with an indicator of 7.6-7%, it is the only one, there are dozens of other parties that are pro-european, they cannot to unite, well, i don't know what analogy to draw there, there by the example of ukraine in 2003-4 years before yushchenko's circle, by the example of the same georgia, the year around saakashvili, saakashvili himself does not drag 2003 on himself, he sits in prison, and right there, well, purely in

the human dimension, well, what am i personally satisfied, it seems to me, i don’t know, he stopped fooling around, excuse the word , it seems to me that he started to eat something, because last year or the year before last there was a period when he was ready to really die, to go to the end, that is, and georgia and the opposition emphasizes, the more so the government, it is not... ready to release mikheil saakashvili from prison or from a specialized hospital in that or god forbid in another form, this is georgia's problem, and this is mr. volodymyr, i have a question, then , then it's more, i'm in favor, i 'll go deeper with your permission, that's all you you tell, it happens, as i understand it, against the background of fairly serious freedom of the press. in georgia, and then the question arises, and then the question arises, why georgia, georgian oppositionists cannot unite. i understand that if it was moscow or russia, they would just

put everyone in prison, they killed him, like borya nimtsov, they imprisoned him, and that's it, there are no leaders and everything is fine. and, there is no doubt that there is no freedom of speech in russia as such. if alternative opinions can be seen in georgia, if there is criticism of the government in georgia. can't unite then why can't they unite hot georgian guys, he asks a question that is quite difficult in the aggregate, well, they are examining personal dislike for each other, as the classic said, you understand, in the original language, well, a very motley opposition, very, that is, you understand, here the craziness of the situation looks like that, for example , saakashvili is in prison, the party mentioned, saakashvili's party, let's call it that. they held primaries according to european standards, elected khabeishvili as the head of the party, and the losing side split, that is, already within the united national movement, for a long time

in the party saakashvili, there is no unity around the figure of saakashvili, well, this is complete madness, here i agree with you, i can talk for a long time about why this is happening, regarding the freedom of speech, well, listen, it is for a warring country, and georgia is in one or another living there or frozen state has occupied territories, well, there is too much freedom of speech and so on, which manifests itself in, let's say, pro-russian platforms there, such as the georgia satellite. not having a special rating, but they calmly announce in georgia, there are none problems with this, so here in principle, well , you know how our shortcomings are the continuation of our exploits, the familiar situation with ukraine on the eve of a full-scale invasion, and you know our information field better than me, here is full democracy in this regard, civil society, youth , and here the craziness of the situation lies in the fact that, according to all ratings, the pro-nativist population is under 80%

and... the european-oriented population, but including, including benzinanishvili since 2012, what has succeeded is the maniacal policy of not teasing moscow, let's call it that , and she worked, which, by the way, did not work out for the moskkals in ukraine, you understand, that is, now the most terrible question in georgian society is that a silent question has arisen regarding the occupied territories, to what should they be returned? he doesn't say it out loud. this is what i am saying, that is, a terrible situation has happened, that is the point, that is, no policy of deoccupation of the territory, an important issue, maybe the last one, we have two minutes there - it is a lot, and the youth, this is when the last uprising literally took place, it was in the center georgia before the parliament, when these laws foreigners, about foreign activists, something

similar. and there the youth came out, and many people said: this is our hope for a new generation of politicians, they know what to do, then these young politicians appeared who really know, and do they know what to do? there is hope that they will appear, you mentioned a very good case, this is the pro-foreign agents law, and it was just a soil test on the part of the authorities, as they say, this law. look, according to his standards, well, this is not russia, there, roughly speaking, the one who has funding, grants from foreign countries, it should be made public by more than a certain percentage, listen , the georgians are so proud of this, i work in the georgian center for strategic analysis, they work with the turks, with the americans, with the ukrainians, after all, they work and are proud of it, that is, no threats it did not benefit the society, but the people rose up because it was a stupid

copy of the russian law, 600 people came out on rustaveli avenue and the government turned on the rear, so the hope that georgia is rational in its irrationality, that is, you understand, well, something can come out anything, and the georgians, well , in my memory since 1989, have been proving how it can be, including unexpectedly, so you understand, moscow is bound to make a fool of itself in relation to georgia and the georgian authorities, despite the fact that if you. .. the bors were tomorrow, they would not get a constitutional majority, but not everything is so simple in reality. thank you very much. volodymyr kobchak, the head of the southern akvaka branch of the disarmament conversion army research center from tbilisi spoke with us. i myself remember when i talk to mr. volodyr that i was in two wars in georgia, the civil war and the semi-civilian. well, i won't pull a line on myself, but this is a really interesting country, a strange one, which can surprise both... for good and for

bad. iryna koval will now appear before your bright eyes with the news, and i will say goodbye to you, thank you for your attention, all the best. 20:00 in ukraine, news time on the espresso tv channel in the iryna koval studio, greetings to all viewers, i will start with the news that became known just a few minutes ago, this year at the eurovision song contest in sweden, ukraine will be represented by a duo.