voters, he himself determines how many votes he will get, moods are important to him, it is important to him that people do not rebel, do not get indignant, agree, recognize and behave quietly, this is really important to putin , it is pointless to deny it, and he monitors public moods, they have no connection with the results of the elections, even if you imagine that 90% are against putin, putin would not give up power, he secured the result with bayonets. and defended him, would write that he has 90% and would not let people come out and be indignant by this violation, substitution or falsification of the results, but moods are still important, he must control them, they must correspond to his wishes, his intentions, that is, so that in no case a serious, irreconcilable contradiction arises, the real picture cannot be replaced only by virtual, invented ones elections and their results, you can't, people still have... outside of russia and want to return

, etc., that is, a lot of problems related to the war, and how else? putin cannot take a break, he is now, as forbes writes, i read this one article, they are preparing for an offensive in the kharkiv region, it is possible that this is an attack and a pso, perhaps the actions of the russian . that is, the situation here looks like that putin would naturally want more success, to take kupianskyi avdiivka, which he did not take, by the way, what but not... is it about avdiivka,

every two weeks it remains, that's all, but putin did not take it, it is important for him to get this result, but he will not risk too much until march 17, there are six weeks left, not so much. it is better to live through these six weeks until march 17, and there already resorting to some new efforts in a new situation with a new government, new powers, perhaps established in a new one. by their successors, daughters, close people, who are children, descendants , which is what putin wants, of course, then , it seems to me, the option of some kind of offensive is more realistic , in my opinion , there is not much time left before the elections, so let's imagine that tomorrow they will go to kup' yansk, i was there in kupyansk, many people say, what are you talking about all the time, i can testify as a person who was there, not by a globe or stories and... i saw a splinter

below kupyansk, i don't know how to overcome it without huge losses, probably everything is possible in the world, they have a lot of shells, the north koreans are supplying them, they will bombard the whole city with them, but i repeat, it is impossible to overcome this obstacle just like that, the river is small, but kupens is not elevated, further on is the forest, terekons , the officers showed me, they were stationed there, it is not very well visible from the position even with binoculars, because the distance is great, i want to say that i have no idea... therefore, i think that this is a more long-term plan , and not the one before elections, he wants to show russian voters the result. look, i took kupliansk. i don't think there will be enough time for that. thank you very much mark for this extremely interesting conversation, i want to remind our tv viewers that mark fegin, a figure of the russian opposition in emigration, a former

member of the state duma and a well-known blogger, was currently working on the air. our guest is matthew bryza, former adviser to the united states secretary of state, former director of european and eurasian affairs at the us national security council. glory to ukraine, dear mr. ambassador, i congratulate you. glory. well, the united states surprised again. we were unpleasantly surprised, and we understand that this could have a catastrophic effect on us. consequences, in particular, it refers to the lack of agreement between republicans and democrats on the ukrainian issue, i am not even going to take on the entire geopolitical situation and the internal american situation, it is extremely difficult, but they have not agreed, can they agree? first of all , it is obvious that the lack of agreement goes beyond the issue of aid to ukraine. there is no agreement on aid to israel and taiwan, as well on strengthening protection and administration.

the us-mexican border, which the republicans insisted on as a condition for providing aid to ukraine, israel and taiwan. thus, the entire governing structure of the us congress, which spans... both houses, begins to fall apart. in addition to the above problems, there are other shortcomings of congressional leadership. president donald trump is ignoring agreements reached by senators and members of the house of representatives to express his disagreement over legislation or bills as he seeks to create obstacles to president biden in the upcoming election in november. such disobedience further deepens the political and legislative dysfunction. systems of the usa, unfortunately, ukraine found itself trapped in this chaotic state of affairs. currently, the political and legislative systems of the united states are disjointed, and the search for solutions for their unification remains undefined. the ukrainian issue has become a tool in the hands of donald

trump's election headquarters, which he wants to use to publicly destroy the biden administration and biden himself. let's look at it differently. angle, i do not believe that donald trump is using ukraine as a political tool against biden. instead, one theory suggests that congress approves the money, it is intended for ukraine, since it is congress that controls budget expenditures. the president cannot spend money without congressional approval. and although congress has already allocated a significant amount of funds for ukraine, after using them, biden cannot make any other decisions without the consent of congress. in such a scenario, president biden must rely on his political acumen, particularly in an election year to convince congress, especially republicans, to allocate more funds for ukraine, but trump seems intent on depriving biden of any

victories, both in foreign policy and in any other area. so he is likely to fold members of the republican party to thwart any such efforts. moreover, this issue concerns not only ukraine, but also the entire united states. if president biden and congress cannot find a common solution, the us government may be left without one funding until march 1. president trump appears to be happy to accept such a scenario because it might reflect poorly on president biden, who would appear incompetent. this situation highlights the breakdown of the entire us political system. making it difficult for president biden to implement new initiatives. i recently listened to very important speeches by timothy snyder, speeches by hillary clinton, they are all aware, the representatives of the american intellectual elites are aware of all the threats and all the problems, but

i have the impression that there is some kind of, perhaps, unspoken decision, it's not docker, i have the feeling of some kind of double accounting. well, it's true, as we've discussed many times on this program, mr. borkowski, the vast majority of us political leaders at the national level, whether in congress or at the ministerial level, both current and former, are unanimous that that aid to ukraine is crucial not only for ukraine itself, but also for the national interests of the united states. they understand that ukraine's struggle against russia has a direct path impact on larger geopolitics. context, in particular on the nato space. failure to contain russian aggression in ukraine could lead to numerous additional challenges for all members of the north atlantic alliance. it is obvious that ukrainians are fighting not only for themselves, but also for all of us. this understanding is widespread among

experts and politicians, and there is considerable support in the us for more aid to ukraine. however, the main obstacle is one person and that is donald trump. he is motivated by the desire to prevent the political success of joe biden before the presidential elections. trump is well aware of biden's priorities. in particular, the need to help ukraine and israel and reach agreements on better management of the us-mexico border. therefore, trump seeks to prevent such achievements of biden. they lack deep respect and admiration. political power or ability to force donald trump to behave differently. it remains unclear whether trump will follow this approach to ukraine throughout the election campaign, or even if he is re-elected for a second term. interview with

by former secretary of state and cia director michael pompeo, with whom i have worked closely in recent years, indicates that trump may eventually give aid to ukraine, and... turn on the green light for it, because despite ukraine's requests during obama's presidency, it was trump, not obama, who allowed the sale of anti-tank weapons to ukraine. and missile complexes, this shows that he understands the importance of supporting ukraine's defense efforts, however, trump's actions regarding ukraine are inconsistent, which shows a lack of strategic planning, he oscillates between wanting to provide more aid to ukraine and undermining efforts to do so. such inconsistency may be due to his desire to harm biden, unresolved feelings for the president. as well as the desire for positive relations with russia, therefore, trump's approach to

ukraine is characterized by a lack of consistency and long-term planning. well, i also have this feeling, you know, that the world has changed so much that the old political elites can no longer respond properly . do you remember, at one time there was such a person a beautiful film by the cohens, there is no place for old people, and accordingly, people, representatives of the old political era, cannot. to respond to fundamentally new, cynical, scary challenges, well, on the other hand, you mentioned now the former head of the cia, the former head of the state department, mike pompeo, and mike pompeo assures that trump will be firm, but here the key story, as far as we can we believe in this situation mike pompeo, who is a person, in principle plus or minus donald trump, right? as i mentioned, secretary pompeo expressed belief that trump will eventually support aid to ukraine, although i have not personally

met donald trump. i worked closely with secretary of state pompeo. in my experience, i can attest to pompeo's reputation. he says frankly and sincerely. drawing on his informed perspective from having served in key positions in president trump's cabinet. pompeo is known for speaking his true beliefs, not just for... trying to please someone, even if someone might not like hearing his truth, so when pompeo declares his belief in trump's possible support for aid to ukraine, i am inclined to trust his sincerity and authority on this matter. however, the urgency of the situation in ukraine cannot be overestimated. ukraine needs immediate help and cannot afford to wait for president trump's decision to provide support. a recent article in the washington post, one of the most influential newspapers in the us, highlights the dire circumstances

facing ukrainian troops on the front lines, there is an acute shortage of soldiers and artillery shells, and commanders battalions receive minimal resources to support their units. for example, one battalion commander reported receiving only 10 artillery shells for his guns in the past month, while others reported. which received only five fresh soldiers for his unit, which needs 200 fighters to be operational. therefore, ukraine urgently needs additional soldiers and artillery shells, immediately. fortunately, the european union has found a way around hungarian prime minister orbán's opposition to granting more assistance to ukraine, however, ukraine still needs significant assistance from. states of america, unfortunately, given the ongoing political upheavals in washington, it was

unlikely that this help would come in the near future. president joseph biden reminds me in some ways of the president of the united states, woodrow wilson, who had extremely good and powerful wishes, who tried to create a new system of relations in the world, but the american political establishment did not support him, and so did the league. nation without the united states was de facto doomed. now i have a feeling that president joseph biden may repeat, to our great regret, the career of president woodrow wilson. on the other hand, the deputy secretary of state of the united states, victoria nuland, recently visited us. she knows ukraine, she knows how to work with american institutions, and her visit coincided with the rumor. about the possible resignation of the commander-in-chief of the armed forces of ukraine, general valery zaluzhny.

victoria nuland has been a friend of mine for over 30 years, and i had the honor of working with her as a the white house and the state department. i well remember her presence on the maidan in the 14th year, where she actively supported the movement, distributing cookies and demonstrating solidarity. however, it is important to note that it has no influence on the decision. which will be approved by president zelenskyi. as far as i know her character, victoria nuland would never try to convince president zelensky to keep general zaluzhny in office, or ... to fire him. in general, in washington they are quite favorable to the industrious, especially for his efficiency as a commander during the successful counter-offensive of september 22nd. this counteroffensive led to the liberation of kherson and the expulsion of russian troops from near kharkiv. the apparent disagreements between president zelenskyi and general zaluzhny seem

to concern zaluzhny's frank assessment of the situation on the ground, in particular regarding of the peak situation on the demarcation line between ukrainian and russian troops in the south of ukraine. zaluzhny emphasized the need for potentially unpopular measures to strengthen the advanced forces and overcome lack of resources, with which president zelensky seems to disagree. although i can't talk about victoria's specific remarks during her stay in kyiv, more and more journalistic reports from the front lines are coming.' it is obvious that the point of view of the warlord about the need for more soldiers, ammunition and weapons is most likely correct. after all, the dispute between zaluzhnyi and president zelenskyi is an internal matter of ukraine, as the national leader and supreme commander, president zelenskyi has the authority to decide decisions on specific personnel issues. it is

he who must exercise his judgments in the best interests of the ukrainian people. so, opinions about the hard worker. and the united states' perception of another war scenario. in washington, there are different views on the current situation. first, the official position of the us government is that it is not within their competence to interfere with president zelenskyi's decision regarding the command of general zaluzhnyi. it is believed that it is the prerogative and responsibility of the ukrainian president to determine whom he trusts, especially when we are talking about the situation on the battlefield. second. general zaluzhnyk enjoys high authority in washington, like all ukrainian military personnel, after all. over the past few years, especially since the first russian invasion of ukraine. in the 14th year, experts in washington, who monitor the course of military events in ukraine, were impressed by the evolution and achievements of the ukrainian military. general zaluzhnyi is credited with an important role in this transformation. thirdly,

many in washington perceive president zelensky as a hero, who is considered one of most. significant and effective national leaders in the world. he commands deep respect and admiration in washington circles, so regardless of president zelensky's decision regarding his commander-in-chief, washington will likely continue to support him. however, i personally think that general zaluzhny is probably right when he says that ukraine needs more soldiers on the battlefield, whether it is 500 thousand as suggested by zaluzhny or some other number. ukraine urgently needs replenishment of human resources at the front, and also a significant one increase in artillery ammunition. we remember from our time, about one and a half years ago, the so-called istanbul meetings took place, certain negotiations took place. now putin goes to erdogan personally, not shoigu, not abramovich and so on. we understand that

they will discuss a lot of issues, there are really a lot of them. the burning middle east. prospects of the third world war on the shores of the red sea, but putin will also insist on his agenda, in particular, when we are talking about the russian-ukrainian war. i'm not really i'm sure about the objectives of president putin's visit to turkey and his meeting with president erdogan, but one issue that i think will be for sure is their negotiations on a turkish hub for russian natural gas. turkey and russia, represented by erdogan and putin, respectively, are engaged in long-term negotiations regarding a new agreement to increase the supply of russian natural gas to turkey. moreover , turkey seeks to obtain discounts on a significant part of the gas and intends to transport the rest of the gas to europe through bulgaria, serbia and hungary despite numerous rounds

of negotiations, the two sides have still not concluded this agreement. i know that president putin is interested in its settlement. so it will probably be on the agenda. in addition, president putin may want to sway turkey to russia's position on ukraine. however, as we discussed earlier, president erdogan has followed a consistent and balanced policy towards russia aimed at countering russian expansion in the black sea region. avoiding unnecessary tension. turkey consistently supports the territorial integrity of ukraine, condemns the annexation of crimea. calls for an end to russia's military actions, however, despite providing ukraine with military support from drones to naval capabilities, turkey refrains from joining sanctions against russia. encourages turkish companies to continue doing business with russia. such a balanced approach serves turkey's national interests, and it is unlikely that president putin will be able to convince

turkey to abandon it in favor of supporting russia against ukraine, as such the step would be contrary to the main interests of the republic of turkey. well, in any case, we understand that there was a different plan of a meeting of formal advisers on national security... the meetings took place in the middle east. erriad and on, on, on. we understand that a certain process is ongoing. there were signals from switzerland, that is, the minister of foreign affairs of switzerland also gave signals that it was necessary to speak, feel, so to speak, some or other peace formula. i believe that now is not the best time for negotiations, unless ukraine is ready for them if president zelensky... does not come to the conclusion that there is no real way to push russia out of crimea and donbas and does not make a choice in favor of negotiations, then it is premature to talk about any

negotiations. currently, ukraine is aiming to regain its territories, restore its territorial integrity and assert its sovereignty. therefore, supporting a peaceful settlement at this stage plays into putin's hands, potentially allowing russia to consolidate its territorial interests. gains in ukraine, similar to the situation in which georgia found itself in 2008, when russia left its occupation troops there, and georgia was forced to withdraw its troops from its own territory. regarding putin's potential agenda, it's worth noting that turkey already mediated between ukraine and russia in march 2022, facilitating negotiations to end the war. ukraine then proposed a cease-fire agreement, according to which russia would have to withdraw all its troops that entered ukraine after february 24, 2022.

ukraine would have declared neutrality, abstained b from joining nato and would discuss the legal status of donbas in 15 years. although this proposal is no longer under discussion, it showed ukraine's willingness to consider diplomatic solutions. however, russia rejected this offer because it...preferred the continuation of the conflict, therefore, given ukraine's determination to defend and return its territory, external parties, including switzerland, should refrain from pressuring ukraine to cease hostilities if ukraine is not ready to do so. well, unfortunately, i have to finish ours conversation, thank you, mr. ambassador, for this brilliant analysis, i would like to remind our viewers that matthew bry was currently working for them on espresso. for ex-adviser of the united states secretary of state, former director of european and eurasian affairs at the us national security council. the time of our program has run out, stay tuned to the

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