mass media he probably thinks like this: listen, don't negotiate, you get 20% of ukraine, we take 80, great business, you get a bare 20%. these are territories, and all preferences are related to access to the sea, is this a new geopolitical situation for you? putin does not want 20%, he wants 100%, this is important to understand. and here is the hope that even if trump wins the election, they will not agree, because 20% is not enough for putin. moreover, 100% of ukraine is not enough for him, his goal is what was stated in his memorandum in december 2021. the entire former eastern bloc, its demilitarization from the borders of may 1997 , preceded the nato membership of these countries. that's what he's going to push for, and he hopes they don't end up coming to an agreement, because for trump it was a concession for nothing. he wants

to simply change the atmosphere in the united states, in the political establishment or in the government, in which trump can come in order to start talking to him at all. secondary, there are sanctions, and oil, and an embargo, and the removal of his status as a war criminal, this everything putin wants, of course, and will make these demands. it goes without saying, we understand it, but it is only a derivative of the main demand that he wants all of ukraine. he will never be satisfied with the fact that he kept 20%, and 80% will go to nato and the european union. this is important to understand. they will never agree on this, even with such a convenient negotiating partner for him as trump. in my personal opinion, trump knows where to stop, also because such a task of positions is unacceptable for... the american elite, for the american

doctrine, for everything that the united states has done in the last 30-35 years after the fall of communism, the victory in the cold war, etc., therefore, in fact, carlson can only make a kind of framework offer, an invitation to a so-called arrangement, behind which he does not even hide, even in this interview, maybe somewhere out of sight, out of the interview, out of the frame, it was about this very thing, let's start a dialogue, let's negotiate, we can until... that the administration of the current, current president biden, she will be able implement the voiced or promised, but we see that everything somehow slips again and again, in your opinion, what are the possible undercurrents, yes, well, on the one hand, we understand that the republicans, they are for ukraine, yes, but on... we see the fact , that they

can't come to an agreement, and everyone starts shaking this unfortunate border with mexico, yes, which has also gained importance, i don't know, well, the same with taiwan. it turns out that way, but it cannot be considered outside the context of elections. the election in america is a defining factor that the republicans are definitely taking advantage of situation, perhaps pressure on the democratic administration, biden himself, on his entourage in order to achieve the maximum. fictions for themselves in the elections, because the dispute about the border, about illegal migrants, by the way, the biden administration is resisting, says to let in 5 thousand migrants a day, and the republicans say 10, now they go and insist that not a single person at all, who looks quite logically and correctly on the part of the same republicans, but the problem is why it is connected precisely with ukraine, why it is interconnected precisely with international issues, which? speaking, does not

contain inside the american agenda at all. the ukrainian issue does not affect taxes, or migrants, or health care reform in the united states, or anything, just cynical american politics: whether we want it or not, it is largely determined by trump's nomination, because if if nikki haley were nominated, this problem would not exist. if she had a high rating and was the first applicant, then most likely such a situation did not arise. american senators, republicans who influence the issue, depend on trump's opinion. they seek their re-election. and the republican electorate largely supports him. there, the price of the question is six republicans, who are constantly torturing the rest and the head of the speaker of the house of representatives , johnson. six people who can throw their votes into the balance, taking into account the democratic votes, and re-elect speaker johnson. this

is not beneficial to him, so he slows down the inclusion of the issue on the agenda. we'll see how it ends, we don't decide in advance, we will watch, but this blocking is caused precisely by the actions of madmen. supporters of trump with the help of republican congressmen, the fact remains that somehow it turns out that some small group sets its own conditions for the republican majority, which means that it is beneficial for someone to this deep, perhaps deep state, and perhaps it also somehow fits, i don’t know, into the program regarding ukraine, well, i would not like to be such a pessimistic conspiracy theorist, but such a strange coincidence of minds... for a democratic administration, this is also very an advantageous moment, because president biden , outside of the decision of the congress, has the opportunity to help with weapons and military aid first of all, there is such an opportunity, bypassing

the congress with his decisions on the budget of the pentagon , etc., but what he declares, he says: no, we will not do this, let all the responsibility will be on the republicans if they refuse. we know that within the democratic administration there is a line that is aimed at forcing ukraine to negotiate with moscow through concessions, to give this 20% of the territory, to get what is still unknown, there are even no parameters of possible negotiations with moscow that would be beneficial to ukraine, we do not know, because the previous conditions for the release of the occupied... therefore, yes, we can assume that for the democrats and for biden, this is a very convenient position, according to which he will say : i'm ready to help, i've even compromised on

borders, i'm ready for a fence on the mexican border, but they don't want it, you see how the republicans behave, in an ultimate manner, so for some part of biden's entourage? giving him extra points, it's beneficial to present it as a problem only in republicans. here, of course, there is a more complicated picture of the game. and an unequivocal conclusion: ukraine has become a hostage of the election campaign in the united states, and until november, it will probably continue this way. we 're already in february, there's at least another six months to go, but sooner or later it has to end. well, in any case, in the near future, putin is going to visit his hon. erdogan's partner, well , we understand that syria, libya, the red sea, these are all understandable stories, but for putin to go personally, it means he has something bring, hear something and get something. i believe that putin is going

to negotiate with two countries. before that he was in saudi arabia, now he will go to turkey to choose whether to propose the format of negotiations regarding ukraine, or the istanbul one, which has already been held, or the summit in jeddah. which took place in august of last year and which was hosted by saudi arabia, where they held talks with trump as the future president. it will already be in november. if suddenly the elections end with his victory, then on january 20, 2025 , he will already be inaugurated and will be ready negotiate with him. and perhaps the venue, of course no one will go to moscow or washington, can be istanbul, jeddah or riyadh. this is the global south. already accept, and not some kind of geneva, as was the case with biden. it seems to me that putin is interested in the support of such an idea from the global south. the initiators of the summit in jeddah, saudi arabia and other countries. and the istanbul format was already in place in 2022, and putin now

appeals to it, says: "you fools, you didn't agree with us then." so i can well assume that in addition to other issues related to the relations between turkey and moscow, erdogan and putin, it will be. resumption of negotiations on their site on favorable terms for putin. it seems to me that he will agree on this. speaking of these framework putin's visions and proposals, we remember, yes, there were many articles devoted to the istanbul format of articles, i don't know, careless wording and so on and so on and so on. well, they tried to make boris johnson, the prime minister of great britain at the time, an extremist, although in any case we understand that it was not his decision, not his vision, simply, a collective event could not accept such a thing. there, withdrawal from the istanbul agreements was a combined decision. the deanery in buch really influenced the readiness of the west at that moment in the spring of 22 to supply weapons in significant quantities so

that ukraine could defend itself. and the positions of ukrainian society were taken into account. ukrainian society did not want any agreements through concessions. plus , it was clear that the success against which these negotiations began. moscow, when they hit ukraine on february 24 and approached the kyiv region. turned out to be imaginary, that is, the possibility of implementing this plan was very small. because in general the kyiv region was protected and moscow's losses were huge, and they were not ready for that. the plan called for three days or seven days, maybe a month, that is, a short term, a blitz-krieg. and he suffocated and no one was ready for the continuation in the form of a blitzkrieg. it was necessary to retreat, to regroup. and start a long, long war, which is happening now.

you know, i think it wasn't some kind of wrong decision, the refusal to negotiate then. the problem is not that ukraine left the negotiations. the west then had other intentions, and the fact that the west does not fulfill its obligations, let's say, openly, regarding the supply of such weapons that it promised. ukraine did not ask for the measure within the framework of the ramstat. i remember when i predicted that the war could end by 2024, or at the beginning of the 24th year, it was at the end of 2023, and it happened against the background of the successful kharkiv operation to liberate kherson, and there were promises that we almost tomorrow we will provide rockets for attacks, sletakas and the rest

to... promise, and tanks and the rest, and that in general the supply of these weapons is taking place, which offensive will not start in march, april, or may, because it is simply not to... of course, if you don't fulfill your obligations , then what is there to talk about, but at the time of abandoning the istanbul format on those well-known grounds, the arrangements were a different event, and the promises of the event were different, so now this problem is not only ukraine can be blamed, say their contrana. stupid suffocated, or rather, did not complete the tasks that were set before him. have you fulfilled all

obligations so that ukraine implements all these plans? good question too. therefore, today new negotiations will most likely be on new grounds. and moscow will lead them differently. putin was given a break for at least six months, he managed to create the notorious surovykin line in three rows. mine fields. and a sea of ​​other things, thereby creating a favorable position for negotiations, so he can now press. there is only one problem: if the event is not yielded to this pressure, putin would not achieve anything, nothing. this is solely due to the weakness of the west caused by the elections, which are even democratic. the current administration is forced to maneuver and not make sudden moves in order to get through the election period. by the voters' calm attitude towards themselves, without giving reasons for intensifying criticism from

trump and the republicans, so the negotiations will resume only under the new administration, there is no chance for this under the previous one. what do you think will fit into putin's russian self-reappointment agenda. that's it history with the war, and how much they will be ready, so to speak, to go to the end in what it calls. voters' votes are not important for putin, he himself determines how many votes he will receive, moods are important to him, it is important to him that people do not rebel, do not be indignant, agree, recognize and behave quietly, this is really important to putin, it is pointless to deny it, and he watches according to public sentiments, they have no connection with the election results, even if we imagine that 90% are against it. putin would not give up power, he secured it for himself with bayonets the result and defended it, would write that

he has 90%, and would not let people come out and be outraged by this violation, substitution or falsification of the results, but sentiments are still important, he must control them, they must correspond to his wishes, his intentions, that is, so that in no case a serious, irreconcilable contradiction does not arise, the real picture cannot be replaced only by a virtual one. invented elections and their results, you can't, people still have to remain loyal, he watches over it, the war is definitely a stimulant, people began to live worse, someone is sent to... the front, someone is in the army, someone got scared and left, relocated outside of russia and wants to return, etc., that is, a bunch of problems related to the war, and how else? putin cannot take a break, he is now, according to forbes, i read this article, preparing for an offensive in the kharkiv region, it is possible that this is an ambush and a pso, perhaps the actions of the russian army, the kremlin, are precisely such as to

provoke expectations of an invasion from belgorod , for example, kharkiv or kupyansk regions, it doesn't matter. they say that they have concentrated 500 tanks, a tank army, on kupien there are armored vehicles, armored vehicles, in the same amount, and 40 thousand troops, that is, the situation here looks like putin would naturally want more success, to take kupyan or avdiivka, which he did not take, by the way, what was not prophesied about avdiivka , that there were two weeks left, that's all, but putin didn't take it, it's important for him to get it. it is better to live horizontally for these six weeks until march 17, and then start some new efforts in a new situation with a new government, new powers, possibly established in the new government by its successors, daughters,

close people who are completely children, descendants, which is what putin wants, of course. then, it seems to me, the option of an offensive is more realistic. in my opinion, there is little time left before the elections. so let's imagine that they will go to kupyansk tomorrow. i was there in kupyansk. many say, why are you talking about it all the time? i can testify as someone who was there. not according to the globe or the stories of others or telegram channels, i saw the splinter below kupyansk. i don't know how to overcome it without huge losses, probably in... everything is possible in the world, they have a lot of shells, the north koreans are supplying them, they will bombard the whole city with them, but i repeat, it is impossible to overcome this obstacle just like that, the river is small, but the kupyans is not elevated, then the forest, terekons, the officers showed me, they were stationed there, it is not very visible from the position even with binoculars, because the distance is great, i want to say that i have no idea how it can be done in

six weeks, but here is avdiyivka, there are no such problems there, the terrain is flat, but also... didn't reach it, so i think it's more a long-term plan, and not such that he wants to show russian voters the result before the elections. look, i took kupliansk. i don't think there will be enough time for that. thank you very much mark for this extremely interesting conversation, i want to remind our tv viewers that mark fegin, a figure of the russian opposition in emigration, a former member of the state duma and a well-known blogger, was currently working on espresso. i congratulate you. this is svoboda live on radio svoboda. we have already approached the serpent himself. the following shots may shock you. news from the place events live kamikaze drone attacks. political analytics, objectively and meaningfully. there is no political season. exclusive interviews, reports from the hottest points

of the front. frankly and impartially. you draw your own conclusions. our guest is matthew bryza, former adviser to the united states secretary of state, former director of european and eurasian affairs at the us national security council. glory to ukraine, dear mr. ambassador, i congratulate you. glory. well, the united states once again surprised, surprised, unpleasantly, and we understand that this can have catastrophic consequences for us consequences. in particular, it is about the absence of... agreements between republicans and democrats on the ukrainian issue, i am not even going to take on the entire geopolitical situation and the internal american situation, it is extremely difficult, but they have not agreed, can they agree? first of all, it is obvious that the lack of agreement goes beyond the issue of aid to ukraine. there is also no agreement on aid

to israel and taiwan, as well as on strengthening the protection and administration of the us-mexico border. what did the republicans insist on as a condition of granting aid to ukraine, israel and taiwan. thus, the entire governing structure of the us congress, which spans both houses, begins to fall apart. in addition to the above problems, there are other shortcomings of congressional leadership. president donald trump is disregarding agreements reached by senators and members of the house of representatives to voice his disagreement over legislation or bills as he ... seeks to create obstacles for president biden in the upcoming november election. such disobedience further deepens the dysfunction of the political and legislative systems usa. unfortunately, ukraine found itself in... this chaotic state of affairs. currently, the political and legislative systems of the united states are disjointed, and the search for solutions for their

unification remains undefined. the ukrainian issue has become a tool in the hands of donald trump's election headquarters, which he wants to use to publicly destroy the biden administration and biden himself. let's look at it from another angle. i do not believe that donald trump ... is using ukraine as a political tool against biden. instead, one theory suggests that president trump may not wants to help ukraine because he wants to support putin. however, it appears that ukraine has become an unwitting collateral victim in trump's desire to prevent biden from achieving any legislative victories in the united states congress. as i mentioned earlier, the law, aimed at strengthening the protection and administration of the us border with'. mexico, to better control the flow of migrants, received widespread support. however, at the last moment , president trump intervened, preventing

the republicans from passing it because he did not wants biden to be able to claim some victories. thus, ukraine was not the center of attention of this political battle, but rather became a victim of this process. what tools do president biden have now when we talk about aid for... ukraine. in fact, he does not have such tools. when congress approves the money, it is earmarked for ukraine, since it is congress that controls budget spending. the president cannot spend money without congressional approval. and although congress already allocated a significant amount of funds for ukraine, after using them biden cannot make any other decisions without the consent of congress. in such a scenario, president biden must rely on his political acumen, particularly in an election year, to convince congress, especially republicans, to allocate more funds for ukraine. however, trump

seems intent on depriving biden of any victories, both in foreign policy and in any other area. so he's likely to rally members of the republican party to thwart any such efforts. more moreover, this issue concerns... not only ukraine, but also the entire united states. if president biden and congress cannot come to a common solution, the us government could remain without funding until march 1. president trump appears to be happy to accept such a scenario because it might reflect poorly on president biden, who would appear incompetent. this situation underscores the breakdown of the entire us political system, making it difficult for the president to succeed. biden to implement new initiatives. i recently listened to some very important talks timothy snyder's speeches, hillary clinton's speeches,

they are all aware, the representatives of the american intellectual elites are aware of all the threats and all the problems, but the impression is that there is some, perhaps tacit, solution. this reproach has the feeling of some kind of double accounting. well, it really is. as we have discussed many times on this program, mr. borkowski, the vast majority of us political leaders at the national level, whether in congress or at the ministerial level, both current and former, agree that aid ukraine is crucial not only for ukraine itself, but also for the national interests of the united states. they understand that ukraine's struggle against russia has a direct impact on the larger geopolitical context, particularly the nato space. failure to contain russian aggression in ukraine could lead to numerous additional challenges for all members of the north atlantic alliance. it is obvious that

ukrainians are fighting not only for themselves, but also for all of us. this understanding is widespread among pundits and politicians, and in the us there is considerable support for providing more aid to ukraine. however, the main obstacle is one person and that is donald trump. he is motivated by the desire not only for the political success of joe biden before the presidential election. trump is well aware of biden's priorities. in particular, the need to help ukraine, israel and reach agreements on better management of the us-mexico border, therefore trump seeks to prevent such achievements of biden. while figures such as hillary clinton and timothy snyder command deep respect and admiration, they lack political power or the ability to force donald trump behave differently. it remains unclear whether trump will follow this approach to ukraine throughout the election campaign, or

even in his case. election for a second term, an interview with the former secretary of state and director of the cia michael pompeo, with whom i worked closely in recent years, indicates that trump may eventually give help to ukraine and turn on the green light for it, because, despite ukraine's request during obama's presidency, it was trump, not obama allowed to sell javelin anti-tank missile systems to ukraine. this shows that he understands the importance of supporting ukraine's defense efforts. however, trump's actions regarding ukraine are inconsistent, which indicates a lack of strategic planning. he vacillates between wanting to provide more aid to ukraine and undermining efforts to do so. such inconsistency may be due to his desire to harm biden. unresolved feelings towards president putin, as well as the desire for positive feedback.

relations with russia, hence trump's approach to ukraine is characterized by a lack of consistency and long-term planning. well, i also have this feeling, you know, that the world has changed so much that the old political elites can no longer respond in a proper way. do you remember, at one time there was such a beautiful film by the cohens. there is no place for old people here. and accordingly, people, representatives of the old political era, can no longer give an answer to the principle. new cynical, scary challenges, well, on the other hand, you mentioned now the former head of the cia, the former head of the state department, mike pompeo, and mike pompeo assures that trump will be firm, but the key story here is how much we can trust mike pompeo in this situation, who is human, basically plus or minus donald trump, right? as i mentioned, secretary of state pompeo has expressed his belief

that ... trump will ultimately support aid to ukraine, although i have not personally met donald trump. i worked closely with secretary of state pompeo. in my experience, i can attest to pompeo's reputation. he says, frankly and sincerely, based on his informed point of view, gained through because he held important positions in president trump's cabinet. pompeo is known for speaking his true beliefs , not just trying to please someone , even if someone... it can be uncomfortable to hear his truth, so when pompeo expresses his belief in trump's possible support for aid to ukraine, i tend to trust his sincerity and authority in this matter. however, the urgency of the situation in ukraine cannot be overestimated. ukraine needs immediate aid and cannot afford to wait for president trump's decision to provide it support a recent article in the washington

post'. one of the most influential newspapers in the usa emphasizes the terrible circumstances faced by ukrainian troops on the front line. there is an acute shortage of soldiers and artillery shells, and battalion commanders receive minimal resources to support their units. for example, one battalion commander reported receiving only 10 artillery shells for his guns in the past month, while another reported receiving only five fresh soldiers for... his unit, which need 200 fighters to be operational. therefore, ukraine urgently needs additional soldiers and artillery shells, immediately. fortunately, the european union has found a way around hungarian prime minister orbán's opposition to providing more aid to ukraine, but ukraine still needs significant aid from the united states of america. unfortunately, from the review.

to the ongoing political upheavals in washington, it was unlikely that this help would come in the near future. president joseph biden reminds me of a president in some ways of the united states, woodrow wilson, who had extremely good and powerful wishes, who tried to create a new system of relations in the world, but the american political establishment did not support him, so there would be a league of nations without the united states. was de facto doomed, but now i have a feeling that president joseph biden may repeat, to our great regret, the career of president woodrow wilson. on the other hand, so recently the deputy secretary of state of the united states, victoria nuland, came to visit us. she knows ukraine, she knows how to work.