tv [untitled] February 23, 2024 12:00am-12:31am EET
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are somehow distributed, yes, not always fairly, we can see this from expensive cars that are imported, but still they are here, so we, well, firstly, we can afford taxes, and secondly, it is not from desire , yes, it is or maybe some business will not even be able to withstand this, but i will be able to withstand the question, will people die, will some business die, such and such a dilemma, it is not that someone wants to introduce more taxes, no one wants it, but sometimes there is simply no way out. again, we still have a unique situation, which has greatly relaxed the ukrainians, if only all these the strict measures of plan b were introduced in the first months of the war, then people perceived it as natural, well, the war, yes, food cards, they remember what england was like, and what happened in the united states, and now the war has been two years, nothing like this has happened , people are sitting , well, it's still normal, and now, if it is introduced, it will say, ah, these officials are bad, yes, ah, this government is bad, and who else is bad, investment bankers are bad, yes? always
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investment bankers are bad, not war, because this break in the chain of logic happened in two years, thanks to the fact that we de facto were held by the western partners and continue to be held, if this money is taken away, we will have an immediate collapse here, and even then there will be no food for anyone, ugh, well, let's talk about prospects, where we can't dive yet, it's quite a resource for us could be... all those assets of the russian federation and its citizens that are frozen, confiscated there, in total we are talking about 300 million dollars now, billions, sorry, this is what is circulating in the information space, and it is wow, but do you believe in legal mechanisms which will allow us to use this money and wage war with this money, it 's important, no, i don't believe it, at the moment we're very far from... what
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the europeans have agreed on now, and this money is mainly in europe, yes, there different data, there is actually such a mess that even, even in such things, 300 billion americans, europeans do not have normal statistics to come out and show, but judging by everything, somewhere around 280 billion is in europe, eh, but they are afraid, they have frozen and are afraid to confiscate , which is illogical from the point of view of ukrainians, yes, because they are they are afraid of harming their own financial system, they are afraid of scaring someone, but if you are some kind of wealthy uncle. in china, they froze your assets, then confiscated them, froze them, what does it matter to you, you already know that they can freeze them, but they are afraid, the european central bank insists on this, and there is one more point why they are afraid, this is germany, to which the poles are watching intently, and they want to be spared for the second world war, and germany is afraid that if there is now this precedent with russian money confiscated, then poland, because of some judicial mechanisms will achieve reparation from the mute. for the second world war, and that is why they are also
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very careful, and we understand that germany rules the ball in the european union, so this money itself, most likely not in the near future, although again, especially if trump comes, there will be talks about it a lot , because trump will say, they have money, let them pay for everything and let them buy even our weapons with this money, he can do it, so there is this risk, but for now, so far the agreement is that this money goes somewhere invested, they generate interest income, and these interests... go to ukraine, for the past year for the 23rd 4.4 billion euros, we will most likely receive this money, although again it is not a fact yet, because the agreement applies to the following years, in on the 24th, it should generate somewhere around 6 billion , because there is a constant amount growing there, so this money will be and it can also go to armaments , most likely, but for now, the 24th year , whether 4 billion will come or not, under the question, well, when, as the format is not yet... it is clear,
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actually quite an interesting question, fear to break the system, our own system, in which different people from different parts of the world perceive european financial institutions as super reliable and invest and save their resources, their financial opportunities right here, europe is afraid of losing it, i understand correctly, yes, because any wealth in in the modern world is based on... two things , the rule of law and the right of sanctity, property rights, these are two things that make any ukraine prosperous, without these things a country cannot be prosperous, and europe is afraid to question the very fact that in them there may be the sanctity of legal ownership, and the very fact of questioning that this may be an unreliable jurisdiction, well, it's actually interesting, because psychologically, sooner or later, will they at least be able to cross this line, because... and there are such
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moments, you know, there, where sanctions do not work, the defense forces of ukraine work well, but unfortunately, they cannot raid some banking institutions in europe in order to take russian money, fortunately, of course. yes, but when we talk about the fact that russia remains a powerful exporter energy resources, and unfortunately , global restrictions do not work as we would like in this sense, and this continues to pour money into the military budgets of the russian federation, the defense forces are correcting this moment, and already now our enemy is deprived of a third of its fuel exports, at least yes by sea , at the moment yes, but here... this, it seems, only applies to gasoline, and you have to understand that this, i don't know how long this will be going on, it's just that we remember what the russians did with our oil and gas infrastructure, it still works, that is, we adapted , moreover, the russians had much more capacity
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than we did from the point of view of defeating the russian territory, what makes us different, they have more modernized factories, and this seems to be their strength, and de facto it turned out to be their a weakness, because in these modernized... factories there is necessarily some super modern thing that you take out of power and everything breaks, yes, and we already see this at two factories, when it is not that everything explodes and burns, when they they hit the oil storage, there is no such thing, but it flies in some thing that the europeans did for them, it is also very important, this thing operates the whole plant, it is an important thing for the operation of the whole plant, this thing breaks down, it is difficult to repair, because the parts in the european union and sanctions prevent repair and work. .. it can’t do without it, so i wonder how this effect will be, because once again the russians failed, they have been shelling our kremenchug oil refinery for two years, and even recently after we hit their oil refineries, they are like revenge every weekend they shot again
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in kremenchug, probably there, we don't know, but definitely there, but everything is working, that is , will the russian oil refining industry work in the same way as the ukrainian one, maybe, maybe it's not like that... the significant thing is that we 're striking, we don't know now, or maybe because of their technology, it's going to be a stumbling block and they won't be able to recover as quickly. if we touched on energy, russian energy resources and how they are generally distributed around the world, many people literally could not even there a few years ago to imagine the work of the ukrainian economy without a gas transportation system in the context of the transportation of russian energy resources through us to european ones. union, we understand that this project can be put to an end now, right? well, now, there is a guarantee only on the 24th, on the 25th, the gas may not go, although all these fitza, orban and so on, really hope to somehow organize the process so that the gas continues to flow, why do they need it,
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because the latest publications , in particular, economic publications say that if orban, for example, purchased gas, as europeans do now, it would cost him much cheaper. that is, he continues to buy more expensive russian and stands his ground at the moment yes at the moment, but there the prices on the exchanges can fluctuate, and when the price reached 300, when medvedev was brave and shouted 500 and so on, then orban was probably celebrating, it was that a short moment, but again prices fluctuate, so anything can be there , plus infrastructure, but gas , unlike oil, is very dependent on infrastructure, and there, for example, it seems in there is one particular small region in germany where the trumpet comes only through us. well, that is, whatever you do there, it cannot go there, for now, as long as there is no infrastructure, to drive gas from the exchanges, yes, because it has to be released somehow, that is why this technology and dependence on infrastructure makes hungary, slovakia, some countries there everything still dependent on russian gas, not even because it is cheap or expensive, but because
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it can physically get there in this way, well, i actually started our conversation with the subthesis that we sometimes put ourselves stick to yourself in the wheels and you wrote, in particular, that one of these sticks is the case of igor mazepa from concord capital, you wrote that in fact this case rallied the business community out of fear that they might come after them, literally today i also came across one from the posts of a ukrainian journalist in a ukrainian magazine , who noted that it has become much more difficult for her, as a representative of the media , to communicate with business players in... and the visits of tax officials become somehow, well, they, let's say, go beyond the scope of the functionality that tax officials
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should have in their hands, what is happening here, for sure that the pressure of the security forces has increased over the last year, and for sure it already reminds people of the times of yanukovych and... this is a problem, whether it exactly repeats yanukovych's regime and whether there are the same architects there, conditional partnov, tatarov and so on, that's a question, because under yanukovych, after all, everything was very vertical, very. for now, we cannot claim that this vertical has been built, but nevertheless, the security forces have become more active to be used, yes, unfortunately, apparently there are precedents when even a political position or the position of a business that owns the media becomes the reason why the security forces are so determined. and this, of course, is a problem, and it definitely does not help us in cooperation with our western partners, because they actually
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help us, because we are a democracy, and because we are not russia, if we repeat what russia is doing, then the desire for us will help less. well, there is actually such a dilemma here, on the one hand, we understand that the work of ukrainian business is of different scales has its own specificity, if we talk about the fact that we are all businessmen or businessmen. honest, not tainted, it will be too, well, i’m just lying, we, we know how to hide the real state of our affairs from the state, how, where is this golden mean, you know, i’ve been working on this television, in ukrainian, for 10 years, and i ’ve been speaking for 10 years with you about this, where is the golden mean, where the arrival of law enforcement officers is legitimate, justified, and where you can shout about political pressure, or there is economic danger at all, it will always be a subject. exactly and therefore trust is key, i.e. if there is trust in the law enforcement body, then the arrival
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of this law enforcement body will be considered legitimate. we see this on the example of nabu , yes, they have raids on piovarskyi and on kobolev, where the community is considered not very logical and strange, but this is rather an exception, and in principle, when a nabu comes to someone, no one has an expectation that his came to have nightmares, yes, most likely there are reasons, that is, to make business possible. was catching in order to business, finally choosing between tax rent and corruption rent, i chose tax rent , because it is easier for businesses to choose corruption rent, because it is smaller, yes, it is smaller than tax rent, and that is why salaries are in envelopes, they are everywhere in ukraine, and this is a problem, in fact, and for that you have to beat, for that you have to catch, but only then it works, when the policeman who catches has authority and has trust, if there in... a complete bep should not be created in the way timofii milavanov created it, but with competitions, but with an honest and transparent competition where no one will be
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know in advance who will be elected, and who will be under the leadership of our western partners, under the control of the public, and the correct structure of the bep will be formed from the very beginning, then that bep later, when they take away the powers of the sbu, the police, the sbu, which sometimes comes also, why is not clear, but it comes, yes, then this new bep, whatever it is called, again from... can have public trust, and then, when they come to mazepa, everyone will decide, well, it is mazepa, of course, that sooner or later they should have come to him, but that's how everyone came to mazepa, that means they will come to me, huh, i understand , that is, after all, the law enforcement system should be the first to take a step towards meeting transparency in the relations between business and the state, well , business itself will not do this, because it is not profitable for it, i understand, what do you say from the position of an investment banker, but, well, no , it's the same, well, look, we're like... just that old business woman who did it herself voluntarily, and now we have the same thing because of the ukrainian
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truth, the ukrainian national bureau of investigation is trying to give us nightmares , and there tomas even told in an interview, there is a cottage town , the dbr comes to every owner who bought a house and asks how you bought it, how much you paid in cash, and everything was transparent there, there is nothing to do, but they come to everyone and make everyone nervous, and this is for business not very well, and it turns out, you chose the bright path, and everyone is running after you and trying to get at least something, so... in fact, business plays by the rules, who sets the rules? the rules are set by the state. if the state establishes such rules that business will be forced to play in the light, then business, business has nowhere to go, business will play in the light, because it will be a condition of survival. and in fact , the long-term business also understands that it is beneficial to him. well, here is the issue of capitalization, access to credit resources, and so on. this has always applied to medium-sized, large, and oligarchic businesses, but the oligarchs could not afford to let go. you situation, they always thought, if it's not me in control, then vasya is in control, and then i'll have
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problems, so i don't have control, and that it has always been a problem, in fact, why the oligarchs did not go for reforms, even though the reforms are beneficial to the oligarchs, because any large structure in ukraine when the rule of law is established in the country will cost 10 times more, just 10 times, and a person sells everything, gets zero more and does whatever. the ukrainian oligarchy is like another part of the body of the ukrainian economy, for a very long time, but is it happening? now we have, well, in fact, a process where the economy is getting rid of this ballast, taking into account the main players and those things that are happening with them personally and with their businesses, because of the war, de facto yes, yes, de facto yes, akhmetov kept the old positions with us now, but akhmetov worked specifically on capitalization for a long time, and we have
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many questions about that, how he behaved in the 14th year and before the 14th year, but what... what you need to understand when he was building his business is that there are always no salaries in envelopes, it is a structure that builds capitalization, plus or minus yes pinchuk himself tried to play by western rules, and in fact only these two oligarchs now remained de facto oligarchs, well, de facto people who control something, those who played on some streams there, ala kolomoisky, all of them, they were almost zeroed out, and the war also zeroed them out, furtage is sitting somewhere in vienna and its influence now, let's put it bluntly , is minimal, as well as. therefore, the war de facto helped here, the main thing is that it did not create new oligarchs after the war ended, it is already more difficult, because again, those oligarchs were created in the 90s, when they mostly just took away stolen state assets, now it is no longer possible, now there is much more control of western partners, but
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again, there are always risks, especially when we are talking about the security forces who put pressure on business, that is, oligarchs of akhmetov's level are already on... well, they are really impossible already in ukraine, because it's simple, well, it's possible, the only thing is that if someone took away from akhmetov, he would become equal to akhmetov, but no, most of the wealthy people who come later were born later, it's either the it sector, or this sector where you created, as kasiuk, yes, kasiuk already created his business from scratch, in fact, yes, we have a question about he played politics there, he may have received some subsidies there, but this business was created from scratch, and many other big businessmen are now people who did not take something from the state, or did not sit on... a state order, but created something from scratch, but really now there is a lot of money in ukraine , money just formed, yes, because there is a big state, big government orders, all the money was somehow distributed, and conditionally grynkevich too, yes, no one in lviv knows the businessman grynkevich, so there is little who believes that he is an independent figure, yes, that is, rather than he always fronts someone, that is, someone
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is behind him, and here are the people who are behind those who are now publicly making money, it is questionable whether they will become... after the war oligarchs, well, well, let's talk a little about the future, we understand what challenges the ukrainian economy is facing, it is physically collapsing, the infrastructure of this economy is simply collapsing, does the relocation process solve at least the main part of this issue, well, that is, we understand that within the borders of our state, many enterprises are trying to move away from the lbz of the battle line in fact, but there are those who left. beyond the borders , there are those, there are many private small businesses that came to poland, which will work there, perhaps in germany, where the largest ukrainian diaspora of refugees is now, this is happening, and in fact we will have such an economic and geographical segmentation, the closer the region is will go to russia, the fewer businesses there will be, the fewer wealthy
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people there will be, de facto, because everyone will try to avoid investing in those regions, so this... the gregation will be geographical, if you look, by the way, now at germany , indeed, and remember how it was divided , now in the western part there are still offices of some global companies, there are simply more of them, they are teeming precisely in the western part, in contrast to the eastern part, although it was only 40 years ago, and there were germans , after that there were germans, but even politically eastern germany votes for the nazis, yes pro-russian, therefore... there is a significant difference, very significant, and in the level of gdp per capita, it is still preserved, it is even preserved in the city of berlin itself, ugh, that is, those quarters that were eastern or west germany, they are still different , so it is a very complicated story, and again, the germans were germans for who knows how many years, then 40 years of separation, and then 30 years have passed since then, and
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it is not fixed, at least it is smoothed out a little , but it is not corrected, so this is a story for... the century, in fact, it is good, while we have to soak up this century somehow, excuse me for the word, and become a more or less prosperous country for its own citizens, first of all, if it is accepted to consider economic the possibilities, the energy possibilities of our country, are concentrated in many respects closer to the russian federation, well , it’s not like that anymore... yes, it’s already a stereotype, it won’t be like that, especially since now the main added value is created by people, just physically by people, and where there are people, there is added value, and if people have freedom, including economic freedom, then... people realize themselves and create something in the economy and the economy grows, so again, two keys after war, but during the war there are no investments it will be, of course, it won’t be, after the war
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- this is the rule of law and the fight against corruption, again so that people feel their freedom, and so that they feel safe to invest here, it will not change anything, in principle, we have there will be post-war economic growth thanks to the european union, so our integration into the european union is if we integrate, if we integrate, and i simply cannot. imagine, well , first of all, it seems that there is already a consensus in europe on this matter, and i can't imagine any a ukrainian politician in power, who after the war will suddenly do something like this and say: we don't need europe, here the maidan will arise by itself, because just in 3 seconds, that's why we will be a member of the european union, it can be five, maybe seven, maybe 10 years, i don't know, but it is not so important, yes, because in terms of investments, the investor goes already at the moment when the country becomes a candidate, we have already received this candidacy. the process was launched, as soon as the war ends, this moment of investment is included, we have already seen such a demo version of this, well, we will see on all
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farmers a demo version of our european integration, also on the one hand an unpleasant demo version, and it will be many more times, but we saw a pleasant one, the third operator, ukrainian lifecell, was bought by the french, bought from the germans, during the war for 500 million dollars, that this is happening at all, and they explain that they have a lot, they have business in poland. and many ukrainians are now in poland and there is great synergy between poland and ukraine, and therefore it is logical for them to come to ukraine. in fact , many businesses will have this logic, when we will integrate into europe. plus access to the european union market with relatively cheap labor. but here we will focus on our biggest problem after the war - demography. this is a challenge to which there is no normal answer. we will not have a normal demography of our own yet. never really and before other nations that recovered after wars recovered, recovered like the irish, the italians, they all fought and then
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recovered, but this was before the period of urbanization, urbanization does not contribute to the fact that people give birth to a lot of children, it's just that 20 urbanization, 20 years, that's all, the birth rate immediately drops, and therefore, if we want to have a significant economic activity, we need mi. without migration, we will not solve it in any way, even if half of the ukrainian refugees return there, even before the start of the war, we already had a problem with business finding people, but there is no unemployment in ukraine, this is some kind of fanciful story, but even now it is impossible to find people business of all all different specialties in general, that is, now sometimes it's so strange when people say, oh, i don't have a job, i'm lying on the couch, well, go on, it can't be in ukraine, i'm lying on the couch, yes, because there is a lack of people right now. a crazy lack of people , and if you want to work, you will find a job , yes, sometimes you may have to lower your desires to come in, learn something new very often, as was the case with the testers, when
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this boom boom in it, boom in it has already passed in fact, but when he left, many people raised their fifth points, left, became testers, although they were humanitarians before that, relatively speaking, learned and earned a lot of money, as compared to what they earn. but before that , that's why there is no problem with unemployment in ukraine, but there will be problems with people, there will be problems with people, and here there are few people in ukraine, because they are careful in such discussions, they talk about how we, integrating into the european union, can not only to claim goodies from the eu, in particular financial ones, but we will also have certain obligations to the european union, in this context we are a big country that needs workers, so to speak. banal, more and more to europe refugees from many countries are flocking, the european union really does not always know what to do with these people, whether there is a possibility, and
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maybe this possibility is even a risk, that ukraine can actually become a solution for the european union on this issue. the problem is that those people who go to the european union do not want to go to ukraine, and the solution as such is actually an opportunity to attract. migrant workers, arguing that we are part of the european union, and this does not mean that these people should receive ukrainian passport, very often people get confused, the passport is separate, the right to work is separate, that's why i, for example, sometimes find it strange when the president says let's have multiple citizenships so that people can come to ukraine to work, no one needs citizenship, yes just yes, make it simple to find employment in ukraine for foreigners, it is actually very difficult now, and it is so strange that why switzerland is like that, in order to legally get a job in a... country, a migrant, even there from the united states or germany, needs three circles hell to pass, and this is very wrong and very strange, we need to simplify it as much as possible first of all, and then success, here we are... rights
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in the modern world and freedom, but also all countries are now hunting for talent, this is the biggest thing, no one is hunting in terms of resources , it is already the last century, no one needs that oil, it does not bring so much, all other things, countries are hunting for human resources, this is the most important thing, and we are donors now, and we will be donors for some time, but again we donors for someone, we have an opportunity adjust the system to hunt with... talents from other countries, a typical example, well , if we go back in the past, here it is in the 18th year, the taliban is taking over afghanistan, what should modern ukraine do, say all the women from afghanistan who want to be free and they have an education and they want to, come to us , here quickly, here the flights are arranged, come to us, and take everyone, because these are people who, in such an environment as the afghan one, being women there, which is difficult, dared to go to work and to go get an education, it
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means they have... a lot of desire, that means that they can create a lot of things, so as soon as such cases arise somewhere in the world, ukraine needs to be among the first there to attract people, and we have to lead this process, because the topic of migration is very unpopular in ukraine is very unpopular, because we are, after all, a xenophobic society, unfortunately , conservative, let's go, let's go, very conservative, because yes, when, excuse me, but when it turned around in the middle east, literally in the fall, it seemed like that , even karl volog wrote, it seemed that in in principle, eastern europe, ukraine, in particular, is such an island of some kind of common sense, when there were no anti-semitic attacks in public, and in principle no actions in support of hamas were also observed there, but for example in our country this is not because we have war, and because it seems to me that we do not have this active levity, which
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developed in him for a very long time. of the united states, but at the same time, we did not have any such sympathy or pity for the people living in the gas, and still do not have, who de facto found themselves, yes, we can say this, but in we have no sympathy for them, because i think we equate them with the russians and say, well, we have no sympathy for the russians, we want them all to suffer in independence, whether they are in the army or not, and the same, probably we are designing for the gas sector, but well, that is, well , this is this is very yes okay, yes, this is another topic. but the problem is that because of this conservatism of ukrainian society, ukrainian politicians are afraid to talk about this topic, and we will still have migration, even now during the war there is a company that brings you 100, 200, 300 tajiks and arrange for them to work for you, maybe legally, most likely , because legally it is difficult, so this process will be, it can just be chaotic, or it can be regulated, what happens when the process is chaotic, we can see on an example france, when it is better not to go to marseilles, what happens if it is a controlled process,
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we see on the example of canada and... australia, where they themselves regulate who will come to them, they themselves choose, quota and work on it, and in as a result, they do not have these disturbances, c their integration is normal, and it works , uh, but let's go back a little to how we see our future, on december 27, the government literally adopted this national income strategy until 2030, there are a lot of different estimates, i'm sure that and you already... what do you think, because our vision of our own future is primarily the truth? well, first of all , it looks like plan b, exactly that plan b about raising taxes, which we will need, if anything, as plan a, the ministry of finance notes that first the reform of the tax system, and then all these innovations, that's why it is infinitely different from us in time, yes, that's why it doesn't really make sense to discuss this now, yes, because no one will implement it,
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this strategy was made for... the foundation , not in order to to do this, but the imf simply wrote in a memorandum that an income strategy is needed. ministry of finance. here's your income strategy. everyone is satisfied, but they themselves emphasize that first the tax reform, or again to create a service institution that will have trust, and then use it to tighten the nuts. again, a twist nuts, when we talk about salaries in envelopes, these nuts must be tightened. when we talk about the fop tool used by big business. it has to be covered up, it has to be covered up, because in fact it creates crazy injustice, inequality, in fact, the biggest threat to the world right now, the world thinks it's global warming, but it's actually inequality, which has grown very much, and it creates a demand for populists, for conditional trump, brexit and so on, these are all things with negative, again economic consequences, this is the result inequality, we have very high inequality, we have higher equality than there in europe, much higher, and it includes at
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