let's have a look at our poll now if we can no we can't then we 'll see you in an hour now oh in a few minutes we've got a little bit of the bbc on our air now and well actually see you on what the third year of russia's war against ukraine will be like, what international factors need to be taken into account, we talk about it on the bbc. live from london, i'm yevgenia shedlovska. ukraine is counting on western support in the war. but what will it depend on? to understand this, you need to look at those global changes that can take place this year. if very briefly, looking ahead, this year for ukraine will be determined primarily by elections in the united states, in europe, and the need to fight for international attention, while other conflicts are taking place in the world. these are the three key ones. factors, but now let's talk about

everything in detail. to begin with, this global election year is without exaggeration half of the world's population voting in approximately 80 countries, the united states election in november is a key event on the electoral map. we will talk about them a little later, first about europe, to be more precise, about two countries: germany and austria. and i will explain why. parliamentary elections in austria, and as they show. the far-right freedom party can win the majority of votes for them. this will not mean that they will form the government, but other political forces will have to reckon with them. this is a party of eurosceptics who are opposed to aid in ukraine. in germany , not even general elections will be indicative, but local elections in three states where, according to preliminary forecasts , the far-right party may win the alternative for germany is the one that also opposes aid to ukraine. it.

bells and whistles that may indicate a larger trend that radical political parties in europe are becoming more popular, but by how much? well, we will see this at the elections to the european parliament already in the summer, and the european parliament is important for ukraine, because it approves the eu budget, so it is an important institution. what to expect from these general european elections in ukraine, my colleague zhanna bespiachuk found out. elections in the european parliament will be held. this june year and predict that, in total, such parties, the party of freedom, as an alternative for germany, as, say, in france, the national alliance of marie lupin can strengthen their representation in the european parliament and even form a significant group of their meps, and if today the deputies of such political parties also have their own separate group, identity and democracy in the european parliament, it is... fifth in number,

then in the newly elected european parliament it will become the third in number, but will it become just as strong in influence, even if it increases the number of its seats. hardly, here it is worth understanding that the european parliament in itself is such a huge structure, which is often criticized by europeans themselves for the fact that for many , both geographically and politically, it is very far away and does not solve the issues of everyday life of europeans, but... . but what is characteristic of the european parliament is consensus politics, and it is the fact that, after all, pro-european and pro-ukrainian political parties play key roles there in decision-making and in political discussions, i.e. the total weight of those forces, which resolutely consistently and unyieldingly support ukraine, will remain the largest, that is, the group supporting ukraine in the european parliament as pro... predicts

will remain strong even after the elections. but here's what i'm curious about: in this election year, how concerned are europeans about the threat from russia, which their politicians are talking about, that russia will take over and attack their country, because the possibility of a major conflict is being talked about in various european countries, and the german defense minister says , there are still 5-8 years to prepare for this. the swedish general staff believes that it is time a little less, 3 years. and the ministry of defense of poland gives the same assessments. here. it is worth mentioning that european countries rely primarily on the collective defense of nato in terms of their defense capabilities. an attack on one nato country is an attack on all, right? well, one of the key potential candidates for the presidency of the united states seems to think otherwise, and you know who it is, from trump, there is no telling what to expect, the election in the united states and a possible change of power there, that's what is key on the world political map this year: the us election on november 5 and...

will elect not only the president, but also the house of representatives and a third of the senate, so no matter who ends up in the white house, it will be important what the balance of forces between the republicans and democrats in the congress will be tomorrow. the presidency is most likely to be contested again by biden and trump. what can ukraine expect if biden stays for a second presidential term? well, ukraine is a priority of his foreign policy. biden promises to support ukraine as long as necessary, he came to kyiv, which trump, by the way, when he was as president, he did not, but at the same time, his administration gave ukraine weapons very gradually, although biden himself repeatedly repeated that russia should be stopped and the issue of kona should be stopped. if we back down and russia keeps up the pressure and destroys ukraine, what do you think will happen to the balkan countries, what will happen to poland, hungary and orbán? i'm serious, think about it. and trump, who

may still be barred from the elections, may not be such a staunch supporter of ukraine. he often repeats that he can quickly put an end to it war, not to mention his statements that ... the states will not defend nato countries if they do not spend enough money on their defense, this is his statement that recently alarmed europe, listen. sir, if we don't pay and russia attacks us, will you defend us? and i said: you didn't pay, are you a violator? he said, yes, suppose that happened. no, i will not protect you. moreover, i will also encourage them to do what will replace them. you have to pay. in general. trump's statements about the possible withdrawal of the united states from not too new, but in european countries , after seeing what russia can do, such words are perceived differently. well, as my colleague miroslava petsa says, the only predictable feature of trump is his unpredictability, but in the current conditions, such

unpredictability can further unbalance the whole world. in the midst of the russian-ukrainian war, allies on the european continent sharply. realized that there are no guarantees that washington will not withdraw from nato tomorrow, that america will stand up for its allies, if potentially russia attacks hybridly or physically. all this not only forces the democracies of the world to build their own industrial complex, but it is not ignored by dictatorships and non-democratic regimes. if america conditionally swallows a potential russian attack on the baltic states or poland, then what will stop china, what? in addition to taiwan and how protected japan and korea, the main allies of the us in asia, will feel against the background of constant tests of north korean missiles, which, by the way, russia is already using against ukraine. this is a transactional business approach to foreign policy, which trump demonstrated

in the previous term, may cause an even greater division of the world into camps, although it will be difficult to predict which camp the usa will fall into. in the context of ukraine , there are assumptions that trump will return to the white house and there he will be able to understand russia's war against ukraine, to realize that not only ukrainians, but also the whole world is at stake here. ukrainians well remember how trump repeatedly expressed the thesis that he is capable of solving the problem of war in less than a day russia against ukraine. his former adviser, national security chief john bolton, points out that , translated into plain language, this means collusion with russia. at the expense of ukraine, i.e. essentially forcing ukraine to surrender , if america is not expected for itself, during trump’s presidency it arbitrarily abandons the role of world policeman, this will definitely affect the imbalance of forces in

the world, the strengthening of china, which trump does not want, for the irony of the rise of authoritarian personalist regimes and the decline of america's influence. from what will be international the policy of the united states after the elections depends on many things, not only what support ukraine will receive, what will affect the course of the war, the united states is being watched by the world: russia, china, iran, they are watching what decisions will be made in washington, what will be considered there, what not taiwan, what else? there are many hot spots in the world, where frozen conflicts, where new ones may erupt, in northern and eastern africa, the middle east, observers are convinced that new ones will emerge. here are very likely, but let's focus on the near east. what is happening there, in the center of the world attention, israel's war against the hamas group in the gaza strip, which has been going on for 5 months. the houthis are attacking merchant ships in the red sea, paralyzing the key route from europe to asia, the us and its allies are trying

to stop them, striking. western countries do not want the conflict in the middle east to become more large-scale, but the war in ukraine, the escalation in this region... diverts not only the world's attention, but also resources. here's what bbc columnist jeremy bowen says about it. unfortunately, western leaders have demonstrated that they do not have enough resources, others. with you, they cannot simultaneously manage several conflicts at the same time. if we recall the beginning of the full-scale invasion of russia into ukraine two years ago, of course, it was a huge event and a grandiose crisis that everyone, not only the authorities, but also the media and the general public, was concerned about. but now that time has passed, there are other issues that concern them, and the middle east is one of those issues. it is not only about attention, it is also about money, money that is needed. military aid to ukraine to to help her fight against russia, and the clearest evidence of this is the delay in

the us congress, where there were attempts to unite them with the help of israel, with the hope that this would make things easier, but unfortunately, in addition to the crisis in the middle east, this money is hopeless tied up in domestic american politics, especially given the election year and the fact that there seem to be a lot of people in the republican party, lawmakers, who don't think the u.s. should...help ukraine, the way they did, and for ukraine , and for europe, as many believe this is a big problem. jeremy bowben covered the wars in the middle east and was working in ukraine at the start of the russian full-scale invasion, but given the changes, the global changes, that could happen this year, i asked him what the biggest challenge would be for ukraine in the third year of full-scale war. challenge for ukraine. there are two sides of the same coin here. and this coin is a struggle against

the russian invasion. therefore, of course, the most pressing issue is what is happening on the battlefield. will russia be able to? to make some more breakthroughs, capture some more cities, whether it will launch an attack on, say, pokrovsk, whether it will be able to take advantage of the firepower that forced ukraine to retreat in the east. but the other side of that coin is another big you. for ukraine, it is an opportunity to prove, as president zelensky did at the beginning, that ukraine deserves support. i think this issue is now coming up again with his allies, and he needs to make sure that they back up their words with action in the context of military aid. and i also think that here in western europe, britain is under increasing pressure on the government to spend more on its own defense because of... the question of what will happen if donald trump becomes president of the united states, what he

will do with nato, and also because of the tensions and threats that have emerged after a full scale invasion two years ago. in general, in such conditions of uncertainty in the world, ukraine entered the third year of a full-scale war. the first year dispelled illusions about the impossibility of great warriors on the european continent. the second year became a test of readiness for the long-term conflict well, in the third year of the war, the factors on which aid and support to ukraine depends are increasing. together with my colleagues , we talked about the key international events that will determine this, so go to our website bbc.ua, read the materials of my colleagues to better understand what will happen in the world and how it will affect ukraine. that's my goodbye, see you on monday.

we continue the verdict, now we have a journalism club, and we will discuss such topics. objects of influence. ukrainian intelligence has a list of those involved in the kremlin plan maidan 3. why haven't the names been made public yet? readiness for negotiations. and nuclear threats. putin's speech contained many contradictions. what message

did the russian dictator want to send to the world. indiscriminate restriction of political activity. the european parliament is concerned that some people's deputies are not allowed abroad. are such restrictions necessary in times of war? and i remind you of our poll on whether deputies of the verkhovna rada should be restricted from working trips abroad during the war. if your the answer is yes, call 08021381, if not - 08021382, well everyone. all calls are free , of course, and we were joined by colleagues, these are our wonderful journalists, oleksiy mustafin , journalist, historian, publicist, media manager, congratulations, oleksia, good evening, larisa voloshina, journalist, political psychology, good evening, larisa, congratulations, and serhii garma,

journalist, analyst, president of the center for social prospects research of donbass, congratulations. good evening, well, actually, let 's start right away, you try to answer this the question we are asking is whether the deputies of the verkhovna rada should limit foreign trains during the war and in general, what does this whole story with the controversies surrounding these trips mean, let's probably start with oleksii, please oleksii, your opinion , of course, that any deputies. and the citizens of ukraine should be completely free in their movements during the war, it is impossible to say, because you know, we had experience, the war began in us in the 14th year, and we have representatives of a wonderful faction , as everyone knows, went to moscow, in fact, if not coordinate

the trip with the leadership of the verkhovna rada in any way, that is, it turns out that they too could get out, well, as it turned out, it is possible, therefore... of course, deputies should coordinate their trips with the leadership of the verkhovna rada, but it should not look like, you know, a kindergarten and a teacher who determines who should go and who should not go, i.e. it is not possible to give powers to the heads of the verkhovna rada who go beyond the limits, in fact, of the powers of the speaker and his deputies, i.e. they should not determine whether a deputy or not to go by the law, well, that is , it is most likely necessary to limit the leadership of the verkhovna rada in the possibility of prohibiting a deputy from something , so it turns out, yes absolutely, absolutely, but again, it should be strict rules, that is, it

should not be arbitrary, that is, on the basis of something a thing must be decided. sergey, what is your opinion about this dispute, about the fact that it has already reached the european parliament, and what kind of reactions are there when the vice-prime minister says that something is being incited there, and then they scold us europe, that we are doing something wrong, who is ultimately to blame for cursing and somehow not considering the ukrainian government to be democratic enough, well , you know, olya, i think that both... they are to blame, frankly, because i understand on the one hand, i don't always understand poroshenko, at least they don't explain to us anymore why they ban mps, i'm not a fan of all mps now being free to travel abroad, because in our country, sorry, the government already lives quite a separate life from of the people, if people cannot leave now, and

men actually, but the deputies will to leave just like that and without... so to speak, this is a question, and a question that can cause a certain resonance in society, but if a deputy, who goes there due to official necessity, and he is prohibited without justifying it, then this question is already to the authorities, this is really, well, oppression of political activity, i 'm not talking about the position, yes, in general, of the political activity of the people's deputies, so it is possible that the deputies are like the state. employees, yes, who receive a salary in the verkhovna rada, so to speak, should at least receive an explanation, why aren't they released, and then maybe there wouldn't be such letters, but in this case i'm not on poroshenko's side either, because i believe that , first of all, he should have taken into account such a factor

that the person to whom he is writing is a hungarian, and we know the position of orbán and hungary regarding the countries of ukrainian european integration, yes, that is, this, well, this is a small factor, but a politician , such a large-scale politician as poroshenko, should have taken it into account, this is the first, well, second, really putting, well, in dependence, so to speak, the possibility of leaving , well, first of all for the opposition, it is about, yes , that is, for themselves, for their supporters, to put in dependence, it is generally the european integration of ukraine, and we... understand that opponents of european integration in the european union will use this letter against our european integration, well i also think it was politically...well, ill-advised, at least, yes, to put it mildly, although there is a question in general, you know, i have been told

quite often recently that donetsk in the 14th year should have reacted somehow there, well, banderivtsi and everything else, yes, you know what i'm saying, i'm saying that the main mistake of the people, despite the fact that there was a bander threat and... whether it was called or not, the main mistake was that they appealed to a foreign state, to putin, if they had not shouted putin come, nothing would have happened , they had all the leverage and opportunities to solve internal issues within the country, they had a faction, yes, the most powerful faction even at that time, even after maidan, the faction of the party of regions, we remember, that is, the tools were, but now, well, this is so indirect analogy, of course, but the problem is the same, we would... solve the internal problem , well, with the help of actually abroad, yes, that is, people who have their own interest in any

case, and they will help us, and in this case, help poroshenko or the opposition, using it in their own political interests, on this must be taken into account, that is, well, in my opinion, poroshenko is not right in that he appealed to... external factors, to external politicians in solving the internal problem, well, i think that the analogy you made is not simply cannot be direct, it is simply obvious is incorrect, because when a special operation was taking place in the donbass with the guidance of the russian military or the special forces of the same girkin, and girkin himself said about it that nothing would have happened if russian mercenaries had not been introduced, actually entered there, and to say that did not hear... well, sorry, well, this is a completely different story than the fact that someone appealed to someone, there was no appeal to someone, there was simply a neighboring country that decided that it could

take advantage of the moment and grab something , the local residents wanted it, they didn't want it, but none of them i didn't ask objectively, olya, olya, i was in donetsk then, let's say, and took part in these events, and i am pleased to hear now from a person from lviv that she has such a position that people on... once again let's reduce it, let's not return to that situation, let's reduce it simply to the fact that internal problems must be solved within the country. when we appeal to external political forces that have their own interests, they will always use these appeals for their own benefit, for their own political interests,

that's all i wanted to say, well , you know, once again, i don't know what the motivations were for not letting him go to munich, was orban there too, that's the question, it 's not the first time , but in the meantime, marisa, please tell me. what do you think about how correct it was to bring this situation to the european parliament or not, how correct it can be? well, listen, i do not agree at all with these theses that i hear now, what they say when men are not released, but the deputies are traveling, the men are not being released , not because we have nothing to do, but because we have a constitution, provisions on martial law, we have... a law that prohibits leaving, that is, in this case, it is within the framework of the law, we have there is no law that prohibits deputies from fulfilling their duties as deputies, so

they are not released, and this is arbitrariness, men are not released because of martial law, these are completely different things, secondly, this logic about what should not be carried out, well listen, this is the logic of a rapist, that's what you said, and now v i have problems well, there was no need to break the law, in this case this is the logic of the abuser, you know, who begins to blame himself for exceeding his authority, breaking the law, or in some other way, he does it in this case, we say administrative disgrace, how is this not only the opposition, they do not release any deputy, we do not have them, we have them free, there is a law on deputies, they... they have certain duties, powers, they were elected by the people, and no, not volodymyr zelenskyi and not snisarchuk, therefore v in this case, they can go anywhere, according to their

parliamentary powers, and so... when they are not released, well, in my opinion, why, why should they be justified, in which of our legislation is this written, let's not forget that whatever - any public service, any public official, must be guided by the law, and if the law does not allow it, then the official is prohibited, and in this case, when we heard that in our country in the 14th year, people traveled to moscow, well, listen, you know, people used to go to us... because, that's why that for some reason it was allowed, for example, in our country people went to the occupied territories, the same evgeny balytskyi, who now performs the functions of this gauleiter of the zaporizhia region, he went to the crimea, which he simply did not even deny it, but for example, scandals , when there are scandals in germany, german deputies go to occupied crimea, this is a scandal for the whole world, and ukrainian deputies do not go, well, this is a matter of our legislation,

so in ... case, i would still not compare the munich security conference with by the party of regions, which went to moscow on the eve of the war. we have to say here on the other hand that in this case, indeed, one or another oppression of the opposition can be used as proof that ukraine is not a democratic country, and then the question arises, why do it, why use undemocratic mechanisms, for what? i understand when , for example, within the faction, the ruling servant of the people, there are some bans on leaving, they have their own schedule, because they need votes to vote, but our the opposition, why do they absolutely regulate the parliamentary activities of other people, again, if deputies go abroad not for work, but to relax somewhere, well, well, we have excellent investigative journalism , investigative journalism, and these

people... obviously will not re-elected, let the people of ukraine decide what the deputy they voted for looks like, and, but , well, we are talking now, you know, like little children, what they did to you may not be wrong, but what bad people you are, you complained, well, this is some strange story, na my opinion, well, in the end, if you don't release, well, not only poroshenko, there, for example, women from the opposition were also not released, but what deputies are you not releasing. the lists of those deputies who simply did not visit ukraine all this time, well, there are some, for some reason they continue to be deputies, by the way, and this is very strange against the background of the fact that the opposition is not allowed to go somewhere to the conference, we close this topic, we , and let's talk about what got everyone so excited this week, it's actually talk about the fact that nu gur made a statement that there is the danger of some internal subversive actions,

they even found a name for them like maidan 3, well, in fact, in addition to what they said about it in the written statement, they also described it in more detail in his speech , yusov , let's listen to this sync. every time we hear such narratives that shake the country, delegitimize state decision-making, we will understand who to target. are working, there are lists of people on whom the enemy is working, and there are the task of attracting them to spread their rhetoric and influence the socio-political situation in the country, often this is not done directly, and this is how such lists are known, that is, the fact that a person's last name is on the list does not mean that he is a traitor, but he can to be the object of development of the interest of enemy special services. well, actually, oleksiy, let 's start again with you, all the same, it was disturbing and

to a certain extent, perhaps even not only what was said, but also the form of presentation of this entire message, and how can we separate the form from the content here that which is happening, where is there a real threat, and where is just some kind of rhetoric, here is just a very organic combination of form and content, you know, well, in general, it is typical for special services that... the lists have not yet been agreed, they are probably in the stage of agreement, we will name these names later, but just in case, do not allow yourself too much, because you can end up on this list, and, you see how it is, no, you are not agents, you can, they can just be used, but if you everything is not behaving as it should, then, then, we will tell about it separately, and again here the question is not...