related to the international agenda. everyone was waiting for something to be said in the context of transnistria. there were some reasons for this, because the kremlin was deliberately fomenting such a situation. this is not the first time that expectations are deceived in a good or bad sense, it's already common. and it looked like an ordinary pre-election speech on the eve of the so-called elections on march 17, like a report on the work done. it looks something like this. that is, in this sense, they went for a softer option, what was the reason for this, it is difficult to say. i think it's decided do not make the theme of the war central, do not connect with it, quietly pass the two and a half weeks remaining until the formal x-day, that is, the vote for the führer, which from... it doesn't matter how they vote,

the result will be announced: 70% turnout and 80 % of putin's support. therefore, they decided not to bother and decided to go through this moment purely bureaucratically. although someone will say why it was necessary to schedule this speech on february 29, on a leap day that happens once every four years, a very symbolic date for... this date, and we know that for putin the month of february is somehow so important, because he killed nemtsov in february, killed navalny in february, started a war with ukraine in february, that is, he could have already done it on march 1 or 2, that is , the date was chosen, who believes in numerology, maybe not by chance , we assume that, but with all that limited to a purely bureaucratic set, this is such a small blow-off of steam, because in general putin ...

is convinced that everything is going more or less well, not perfectly, but more or less well. and echelons in refrigerators of russian soldiers, somehow they don't bake it, that is, we don't see it in principle some kind of social feedback. well, of course , yes, that's why he doesn't feel the threat and danger from this factor of the costs of the war, that is, a significant number of dead servicemen, losses of personnel. does not occur. this is not feedback, he himself will not pedal this topic, or in any way solve or restrain it, if the people are not indignant, then in principle everything goes more or less normally. judge for yourself, on the second anniversary of the war, zelensky speaks and talks about 31,000 dead ukrainian soldiers, and multiple times, at least five times more of dead russians, i think the ratio is correct. some argue whether this number is accurate

or not, but the ratio is quite real. moreover, western sources paint the same picture. and what did ukrainian sources say about the losses? shoigu announced a single number of losses in september 2022. 5900 losses. after that, not a single number was ever called. the look is not accidental at all, that is, the topic of losses is removed from the agenda, tightly pressed so that it does not sound in any form. look, recently some z-blogger shot himself, as always an idiot, such a bearded guy from the dpr with the call sign moroz or mors, to be honest, i don't follow him, and why did he shoot himself, because his people were killed because he said that avdiyivka is a senseless expense 16 thousands of lives, he... repeated

the number that sounded from american sources regarding official losses, that avdiyivka is a cemetery of mobilized people, and that's all, he was proven, he hanged himself, i think that the hand of lubyanka also played some role there, maybe not directly , but one way or another, what is this morse or frost solov'ov himself rinsed. accordingly, this is a direct methodology, a direct attitude that we do not talk about losses, losses do not exist at all, they hide them somewhere, but this topic is nowhere. the case should not be menstrual in any form, neither bad nor good. also, you know, judge for yourself, and why not put up monuments to them, some kind of steles to the heroes in the cities? i know information from russia, they are hiding quietly, without fanfare, they quietly put it away, closed it, buried it , no fanfare, no television shows, they hide heroes, this is what we saw in ukraine when they were leaving hearses, military funerals are going, people gather, stand along the road, we

... saw, that is, farewell is a big day of remembrance, it is a very significant event for the city, small towns of ukraine, because people understand that young people died for sovereignty, for existence of ukraine. russia has none of this. in the crack of words, he says in this report that the new elites, and the veterans are who, the prisoners whom they sent and they did not return, who are these veterans, who is this elite, you understand, this is the difference. if this topic arose in russia, and on it would be necessary to react, then of course they would somehow do something. if the people themselves do not demand answers for these two-year losses, it is not yet known how many will die, then why should he himself... bring up this topic, many western analysts said that he is preparing one or the other, i don't know, there demonstrative or symbolic moments until the moment of reassignment, but no, we see that the spring-summer campaign is seriously, seriously heating up, i think so, there are reasons behind this,

why else, of course, it is important for putin to demonstrate military successes, but that's all is taking place against the background of this disorder and wavering among ukraine's allies. year of the usa will not only affect the unity of the ranks, the consistency, the continuity of aid to ukraine. the allies assumed these obligations themselves, and not because ukraine bargained for something. they themselves took these commitments, they themselves declared it, for example, about the f-16, about etakams and about other types. weapons about 150 mm of ammunition, 1 million ammunition failed in one word, it does not happen, if you have made a commitment, you are not some subject of international politics who does not mince words answers, that's not possible here, if you said something, then do it, and what will other

allies think, they are already thinking, when after trump's speech in carolina, look how the europeans cheered up due to the fact that trump, some.. .will be nominated, at least by the republican party as the primary candidate, but we don't know what will happen in november, maybe he will win the election, he is saying things that are really confusing to european allies. it turns out that the usa is acting as a guarantor, defender, major western power, leader of the free world. it is interesting, if it is really so, then it will probably have a strong impact not only on ukraine, but also on european and... if they cannot agree in the congress to provide funds, i emphasize this meager amount of funds, comparing what is spent on other programs in the usa, then this shows the weakness, and not the strength of this main guarantor, the main ally of ukraine, as well as the main

country of nato. therefore, against this background, putin has a tendency, which he sometimes hides, and sometimes not. of course, they are thinking that the moment is... favorable for some sort of broadside attack front, or in its separate sections, to achieve positional success until all that is happening in the usa ends. november is almost 8 months. a lot will happen during this time. probably, the kremlin leadership connects its plans and military plans with this situation. mark, why was there cleaning? navalny's february month is symbolism , but anyway, well, the person was , you know, beyond the urals, constantly sat or was kept in isolation and so on and so on, that is, it happened here too, you know, i am inclined to believe the version that he himself expressed before

it was expressed by fcb maria povchykh, who is such an important figure within the system of navalny's team, said that some kind of exchange was being prepared. even if it was not about navalny, a decision had already been reached, because you know, exchange is such a thing, i myself took an indirect part in the exchange of ukrainian political prisoners, i know all this, they agreed, did not fulfill, postponed, that is, many factors , which influence, even accidental, not that big political ones, but i believe that the west tried to exchange navalny, pull out navalny from a russian prison. why did putin kill him? first, he kills everyone. they tried to kill navalny in 2020, when they poisoned him as a rookie. in revenge, they killed prigozhin. they killed many other

people. why don't they kill navalny in advance? in prison, he would not be able to have influence, but if he were free in europe or america. someone could vouch for him, what his biography was and what challenge he would throw to the kremlin, this is not a question of fear, it is a question of how they see it. what more they they are not afraid of the consequences, before they were somehow afraid, circling, but now they conducted the elections the way they did, even their own candidate nadezhdin, who was nominated, accepted and not allowed to participate in the elections, although he was a completely controlled candidate, they decided to play it safe even in this matter . so why didn't they play it safe when it came to the main opponent of the kremlin, which navalny

was. navalny really was an anti-system politician. we all understood with our minds that they would not let him go alive, they were upset over him a lot. but khodorkovsky of his time they released, and khodorkovsky plus or minus sat quietly. it's not that it's quiet, because khodorkovsky was released from another time, the regime was there. others now we are dealing with an almost completed totalitarian system, i emphasize totalitarian. let me remind you, at the end of 2013, when khodorkovsky was formally amnestied, i don't remember exactly, it seems that this was the question. why was this done? because it was done at a time when moscow had to depict something with the olympics. at that time there was an olympics. back then putin's authoritarian personalist regime fought for some relations with europe,

allies, partners, now after the war, after half a million dead there in ukraine, what is the point of portraying something? i can well imagine the conversation of patrushev, who is the main protagonist of all these cruel measures, and putin in the dispute with vaino. the head of the administration of the president of the russian federation and kiriyenko, the first deputy in charge. for internal politics, and what should we be afraid of, we are war criminals anyway, but by killing a person, we solved the problem, prevented disorder in the course elections, we removed some of the headache. we act like this now, we are now satraps, thieves, why should we portray anything? and this proves that they used to depict, and with khodorkovsky they also depicted. one death of navalny

turns into an ordinary single manifestation against the background of the statistics of the terrible war in ukraine, which is not yet over, this page is not closed. if they killed half a million, how many more will they kill in the next two years. that's what we're talking about, that's why it seems to me that feeling this degree, just... reflection became less, that's it and that's all. well, but there must be a corresponding answer. yes, we understand that the procedure for putin's self-appointment to the position he illegitimately occupies will take place in a couple of weeks. and on the other hand, the issue of recognition. putin will appoint himself, you know, with the addition of the murdered navalny around his neck, you know, and that will hide our beautiful collective event. how will he be addressed, dear dictator, or there, a dear person who has seized power, illegally holds it

by force and so on, how will it be like this, is it possible for them to do all the work because of this withdraw, for example, from radbe, from the organization of the united nations due to the fact that they seized power in russia in an illegitimate way, before the murder of navalny, before the murder of navalny , the version that will remain simply unresponsive, i do not think that we will hear from... officials, for example, from the white house in washington or from president macron or someone else, a direct articulation of the topic of the elections and their consequences with a call not to recognize putin as a legitimate president, why? they then, i think, and now they will not remove the justification for y in the form of the fact that if we do not recognize him as a legitimate president, then how will we conduct peace negotiations, that is, not because they do not consider him legitimate, because they know very well that... the elections in russia are, they know very well , what is this regime, for them the methodology of real politics

is much more acceptable in view of the choice of means of response, you say that it is possible not to recognize, and then to recognize, as was the case with lukashenko, here the situation is different, because putin represents a significant threat to europe, therefore merge they don't want him, here's a simple example, i and my colleagues talked more than once with senior and junior gutkov. with other people, with representatives of the french ministry of foreign affairs, with macron's advisor, they also talked about this topic. literally in the fall of 2023, they talked about whether they would recognize... or not, how would they react? unofficially, we were told that this issue is difficult and debatable. we asked if president macron could accept the russian opposition as an alternative to the self-proclaimed führer? and the answer was: no, the subtext was, what is the point of draining putin? because having recognized some

alternative, you assume the responsibility and risks involved. so far he does not dare to take on himself in the general atmosphere. if it was a collective decision, then something could be done even in the un security council, but there is no such unity? there is no unity, not even on the question of joining some european armies to ukraine, there is no unity on the supply of weapons. watch the debate between scholz and macron. there is no unequivocal unity regarding aid. the victorious end, which was announced by the american administration, there is no unity, and this is the main problem. in order not to recognize the election as illegitimate, and as a conclusion derived from this decision, to start acting, there must be a general unity and position, which is currently impossible. mark, well, i agree with that, yes, this is an extremely important point, well, going back

to the exclusion of russia from the council of the un, it would be possible to simply freeze its membership there, right? to find out the circumstances, but going back, so to speak, to these or other negotiations, we understand that at one time, when adolf loizovich really started to burn there, himmler began to rush, and nothing, they started with hitler, no, but they started talking with himmler and himmler began to offer, let me start releasing the imprisoned jews in concentration camps, let me change this for you, let me change this for you, proposals and so on, well, it all started in... literally a couple of months before the collapse, but we understand that there are quite such powerful historiosophists sitting in the kremlin politburo, so they sent carlson, you know, carlson came with something unknown and left with some kind of trick, in which they seemed to be placed documents, correspondence, you know , khmelnytskyi’s body with oleksii tsar, you know,

moscow’s, and what and what, what was actually there, it is unknown, maybe there are some secret plans, proposals, i don’t know, wow... for a couple of billion bucks, who does anyone know who searched that carlson? look, all these negotiations or long-distance relations, based on the long-standing connection and sympathy of moscow, are related to trump. if, for example, we are talking about the election, trump himself declares that he is ready and able to negotiate with putin within 24 hours on the issue of ukraine. personally, i do not understand what is meant by this, because trump also has a limiter, which he cannot go to due to a number of different important reasons. he, on the other hand, comes out of the possibility of reaching an agreement in the form of a compromise, that is, a compromise as a tool: you are 20, we are 80. putin never negotiates like that. putin

always demands 100%. this is his completely different tactic. therefore, negotiating in the cayman islands or elsewhere in the absence of methodology and principles of agreements is a compromise. and what is a compromise? it is international a right that putin denies. trump, despite all the claims against him and his eccentricity, honestly understands the rules. however , the price of issues is different in politics than in business. in business - this is monetary costs, and in politics - this is nuclear war. it. half-dimensional scale, and i don't think they'll come to an agreement, so it's not time for real negotiations yet. moscow will wait for favorable results of the elections in the usa, and whether there will be an opportunity to come to an agreement will be seen, but from the point of view of ukraine, the situation, let's say, does not change for itself, but in the foreign contour worsens. but again, everything

will depend on the opportunities that arise, and they are not foreseen. in connection with the elections in the usa, i leave some percentage that trump will not succeed in winning the elections. well, mark, you see a moment here , if trump has been allowed to go this far, and no one, so to speak, no investigator authorized by the state of colorado, you know , has come to him in handcuffs, you know , for all the miracles that have been done, so he can calmly drive to the finish line. with on the other hand, we understand that, well, in principle... the kremlin would be interested not only, so to speak, you understand, in trump, who, i don't know, closes american membership in nato on the continent and removes certain obligations ties from the united states, there are still some here. moment, you know, oklahoma farmers who are starting to take to the roads, well , we see something similar now in poland, in france, in germany, we understand, yes, the energy

of the masses, it has always been used by the kremlin quite, quite successfully. well, not at all predictable, here already in the american press, in some publications, they write that the democrats also have their own plan, which is comparable to the storming of the capitol in the event of trump's victory? that is, worries cannot be avoided either in one case or another. this should also be understood. there is an element of revenge. the republicans who can succeed, ie trump in the us elections, may well seek the satisfaction of revenge for what happened in the 2020 election and the related storming of the capitol. we can't say for sure how american society will take this, nor will this one overcome it split through trump's victory, because he is the divisive one, let's even say directly that biden's victory, if he had stayed for a second term, would not have caused such consequences that

trump's return could cause. you see, the return of trump after what has happened in recent years. i do not venture to predict, because it is connected with the processes that go deep inside the american establishment, which is afraid of the arrival of trump. perhaps the supreme court is his. whether anything else is going to happen, although i think that will be up to the voters, i think what exactly american democracy still works here, the case of john fitzgerald kennedy, so to speak, reminds us that american democracy is unpredictable and predictable, of course i do not wish this on anyone, but there are such cases in american history, i meant it , who may dare to take radical actions, but this is an exceptional option, they did not only shoot. in kennedy, reagan was shot, for example, go find out too, then they admitted that the shooter was a madman, again, these may not be theories from the language that have been implemented, but maybe

impulsive actions of some separate from the tension of the escalating elements within the opposing camps. probably, closer to the summer, we will understand where the movement will be, what the dynamics of the election campaign are, who has more chances, and from this there will be consequences for all players, as well as for the war in ukraine. mark, well, i also wanted to ask you about the next , so to speak, false signals and another smoke screen sent by certain russian unofficial and official persons, and once again they all remind about how ready they were in the kremlin, so to speak , yield, go to meeting and so on and so on, but no, treacherous johnson, you see, spoiled everything for them, we understand that this is delusion and propaganda. but they keep coming back to it. the kremlin uses all the levers. as for individual statements, i would not pay so much attention to them. because

the actions and strategies that the kremlin adheres to are important. and this consists in putting pressure in all possible ways, forcing the west to surrender ukraine. delivery of ukraine can look different ways. first of all, forcing the kyiv leadership to start negotiations with moscow, accepting some specific terms of these negotiations, this is an opportunity to use pressure levers not only in ukraine itself, but also in the west. and in this sense, about the speaker of the house of representatives trumpist johnson, quite strange information about his separate connections with business, personalities, the chair factory, ugh, is already starting to appear. yes, we have to wait and see, in any case, i can't imagine that moscow is not acting. does not use all levers and resources to

achieve its goal. they have always acted through their agencies, proxies, businesses and other sources. otherwise, we will never explain perversions that occur with elon musk. because it is impossible to explain it. why does a person who is engaged in technology and business suddenly get into politics, why should he, he has no other business besides crimea, putin and everything else? why is this a mask? in all cases, information always leaks out that something was not clean here, that there were some connections, primarily material, that influenced these political issues, a change of position. creation of unions and so on. see, for example, the role of abramovich. they say that even in the negotiations in the exchange of krasikov for hershkovich and possibly

navalny, also some. abramovich had a relationship, and under other circumstances they would not have talked with the abramovichs, he would not have been such an intermediary. completely different tools would work. after all, direct contact is through the head of the special services. for example, the american special services negotiate with their counterparts from moscow through the same burns. therefore, why are there any additional elements. moscow will not stop and continue. i would like to remind our viewers that mark fagin, an activist, was currently working for them on the spresso broadcast of the russian opposition on emigration, former member of the state duma. thanks mark. thank you, everyone, all the best. the time of our program has run out, stay with the espresso tv channel. my colleagues will inform you about all the most important events of this day. take care of yourself and your loved ones. see you on air.

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to understand how our today... will affect our tomorrow, watch the saturday politics club, every saturday on espresso. 2 p.m. in ukraine, in the spresso studio. the enemy attacked kupyansk in the kharkiv region, a 55-year-old volunteer was seriously wounded, reported the head of the regional military administration oleg synigubov. the rashists also chased her around the village of liptsi. residential buildings and cars were damaged there. previously , the occupiers fired at the territory with a s-300 missile. two women were injured as a result shelling of nikopol and.