but such moments are discussed and determined. thank you, mr. bohdan, for the comprehensive analysis, because it is all connected in this world, as in connecting vessels in the chemistry room at school. bohdan ferens, candidate of political science, international expert, was with us. unfortunately, we have disappointing news from odessa, where the fifth victim of tonight's russian attack was discovered there. the emergency services reported. that the body of another person was found on the first floor, unfortunately, we see that the consequences of russian shelling every time more tragic, so we remind you to be active , financially, to donate and support our defenders, because every such fee, every hryvnia that either the state, or we, or western partners, anyone, invests in weapons, in defense, in what our defenders need, this is actually at least a small, but... a step in

the direction of our victory, and this is what saves the lives of our defenders, well, we still remember the commercials on tv with oksana, for 40 million there and so on, now there are 31 million people left in ukraine mass return of people who left is low, here is an interesting interview, our colleague vitaly portnikov spoke with ela libanova, director of the institute of demography and society. studies, where the population of ukraine is not inevitable, this is the conclusion, but there are several ways out of this situation, which you can see right now on espresso, there are 15% discounts on anticataral.

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spray 15% in psaryznyk, ban and oskad pharmacies. the premium sponsor of the national team represents. united by football, stronger together. weekly saturday political club. helps to understand the processes taking place in ukraine and the world. vitaly portnikov, khrystyna yatskiv and invited experts based on facts give their assessment and forecast of the development of events. if you want to understand how our today will affect our tomorrow, watch the saturday political club, every saturday on espresso. verdict with serhii rudenko, from now on in the new one. in a two-hour format,

even more analytics, even more important topics , even more top guests, foreign experts, inclusion from abroad, about ukraine, the world, the front, society, and also feedback, you can express your opinion on malice of the day with the help of a telephone survey, turn on and turn on, the verdict with serhii rudenko, every weekday from 20 to 22 on espresso. espresso channel and ukrainian pen present the project. titles with myroslava barchuk, series conversations with ukrainian and western intellectuals who interpret and comment on the most relevant public discussions, what news will be analyzed by the guests of the project this week and actually who will be the guest of the studio, we will find out already this sunday, unequivocally, the topics will be relevant, the guests will be special, their own names from myroslava barchuk, sunday 17:10 at espresso. i congratulate marlenin, and we

must talk with you about the situation that developed in the second year of the war, we can even talk about the third, two years. people keep coming back people keep leaving do people make decisions or is it all static like the front line? no, no, it is not static, of course, but i cannot state either a serious return of such a large scale, or an increase in migration outflow, neither. moreover, they practically leave a little, return a little. and as for mortality and birth rates, you know, in 2022 we made a mistake, very seriously, we made a mistake in estimating the number of deaths and births, and

we made a negative mistake: we underestimated the number of births and we overestimated the number of dead, so the situation is a little better than at least. with mortality and birth rate than we expected in the 22nd year, and for the 23rd year there is still nothing at all, we can only compare with the data of the ministry of justice, but for today only they give something, well, that is, we can say that people let's put it this way, they didn't limit their family plans there, they definitely, definitely limited them, they were born less than we expected, well , i would like, than it was there in the christmas, pre-christmas years, and after... more died, too, but no, no, no so so strong the negative impact of the war, as we assessed it, although, i don't know, maybe we weren't wrong, here is such a question, we need to figure it out and we can't get an answer to

our question from the ministry of justice, let's say, how are children, ukrainian children who were born 22nd year abroad, that is, as born here or as born abroad. how are they counted, because we, well, we count people as permanent residents of ukraine, because they temporarily left, although according to certain signs they could not be considered there, there they have been there for more than a year, but taking into account the war and their temporary status there, they are part of the permanent population, so how are those who were born abroad recorded, in the 22nd year, as you understand, there were many of them. because i understand that the pregnant women tried to get them out of here first of all , then maybe we were not so wrong, well , let's see, the process of departure itself can be said to have stopped, or it stopped en masse, the masses definitely stopped, but

in the 23rd year it was no longer there, it actually disappeared stopped somewhere, well, in the middle of march 20. it was still observed, but the scale of the departure was already half as much as, say, it was at the end of february, the beginning of march, sometime after march 10, and can we assess the situation with the departure of people from the occupied territories , let's say, both in the direction of ukraine and in the direction of russia, that is, we do not understand anything that is happening there, well, in order to draw any conclusions, at least there should be some statistics, at least something needs to be grasped. then you can already form hypotheses, then you can already compare there with something, well, we don't have any there is no information about what is being done in the occupied territories, to be honest, a lot of people left the occupied territories in the first months of the war through russia, in other countries, yes, yes,

yes, but they traveled through russia, because there was no other way, but tell me, it is possible on a large scale , i apologize, but it is believed that in russia, well, this is at least such confirmed data that yes... there is high commissioner for refugees oonivskyi, his administration, then they say that 1,200 of our citizens were taken to russia, from the occupied territories or not from the occupied territories, but it is considered, yes, and it is not known how many of these people are left in russia itself, one can say so, and there is also such an interesting question as to whether we will be able to estimate the number of the population that is in ukraine today, at least approximately, and that may remain after the end. well, if we talk about the territories under the control of ukraine, well, our authorities, yes, then we believe that somewhere around 31 million with a small 31, 31.5, yes, you understand that, well, yes, this is a conditional estimate, for sure you will not do anything here , and if we talk about

the borders of 1991, then somewhere around 36, if we imagine that 5 live there million people yes, by the way, there is also an interesting story here, in fact, we are currently observing the replacement of the population by citizens of russia, yes, yes, well, this has pluses and minuses. the pluses are related to the fact that after the deoccupation i don't see any legal problems with returning them somewhere to the federation, yes , and it's worse when our citizens are promoted there, it's worse, because those who, say, are there in crimea or in donbas, for 10 years, how many, well, 10 years have they been there, you can imagine how much... the city washed away, let's say, a child who left on the 14th or 15th year to school, she is already

graduating from this school, with what she is graduating, with what knowledge of history, with what understanding of the situation and everything else, you know, i am not so negative here, because i have the impression that a huge number of people, that is, young people both in the occupied territories and in the non-occupied territories, it is completely apolitical, and people may not even notice the changes that have taken place from month to month. believe me, it will be worse with the older generations, of course, there is no doubt about it, but also well done, it is different it's just different, the fact that she doesn't live in the ukrainian space, let's put it this way, yes, yes, yes, and even, you know, look, it's just that when, let's say, the most prominent ukrainians were elected there, the ukrainian people chose, and when they chose the most outstanding russians, to see the difference, well , yes, they were there, there was a competition between yaroslavl. wise and stepan bandera, we had no competition in russia, because in fact

stalin was number one for the russians, they replaced him with someone else, alexander nevsky, i think it was something like that, yes, but support stalin was indisputable, that's what i 'm talking about, they may be apolitical, but they are determined to have a firm hand, you know, such a strong fist. who will put everyone where they need to be, but today the authorities are talking about the fact that something must be done so that ukrainians who are abroad return already, because they have become safer, because taxes are needed, because it is necessary that the western countries themselves did not pay money for the maintenance of ukrainian refugees, how realistic is this approach, well, let's take it one by one, first, when we say that... these must be returned, well, it is desirable that they return, not forcibly returned

, of course, it is more important that they be in ukraine after the end, i know your position regarding the end of the war, in many ways i share it, but that when the post-war reconstruction begins , well, let's say, the war will end its hot phase, because in the hot phase it cannot last 10, 20, 30 years, well, i definitely do not believe in this, i... somehow it, something it must be, then they will are very necessary, and every day they are abroad reduces the probability of their return, literally every day, because they adapt there, well, according to almost all data sources that i look at, well, more than half are already working, well, that is, they are getting rid of the status of this protection little by little , they are working. they adapt, children must attend school or kindergarten, because in most countries it is mandatory,

the issue is not discussed here, and here every day something is destroyed, and therefore the probability of their return is decreasing, so it is very difficult to very important, so that they feel their ukrainianness, so that they feel that they belong here they are waiting, and i know how much a person will feel that they are waiting for him here. when they say that you need to stop paying her money? no, serious people don't talk about that. to be honest, i even, i cannot imagine purely technically, but as a democratic country that allowed people from other countries to stay on its territory, and under certain conditions of stay, and what, it will not help a family with children to live, i i can't do that... you and i consider the president of ukraine to be a serious person, and the president is proposing these to send money for ukraine so that ukraine

itself decides how to help its citizens is a slightly different thing, i mean the proposal that they should not pay anything at all, i cannot imagine it, and to be honest, there is one more the problem is that the europeans are too interested in our labor force, so i don't believe in it at all , well, as far as i understand, we are talking about... the return of people who have not found a place for themselves in the market of the european union and others western countries, people who really live on socialists, let's... yes, well, first of all, the majority of these people do not work, women, do not work, because they either have small children who do not yet attend kindergarten, or they are some old family members who they won't work here, but they will here too, the question here is not that they won't work here either, this is the second question, and the first is that they actually cannot work there,

they are of working age, but they are not are able to work realistically, and on the other hand, if they are there in two years with help, active with the help of the local authorities, they did not find a job, then i apologize, what taxes will they pay here, i have a question, well, this is always such a balance between our effort to see a greater number of able-bodied people and the understanding that now western economies fulfill that role , which can be carried out by the ukrainian economy, that is, the maintenance of these citizens, let's say those who are in our country... take place in relatively safe regions, that is, before the first year of the war, it was definitely western ukraine, now it is more central ukraine, they are receive help from the state, so it is small, but considering the huge number, it is not so small. i would still like to return to the issue

of people's participation in reconstruction, because we can reach a compromise with you. politically, although it is not up to us that some such heated phase of the war, it will end there in the coming years, well, let's say, because there simply will not be the resources on both sides for an intense war, but again, if such a war ends without a peace agreement, without political agreements, that is, on the one hand there is no war, but on the other hand there is a danger of war, then there is not even a question of whether people will return, there will be... a question of whether reconstruction is taking place in such a situation, when every time you are faced with the situation that if you build something here, they are standing there, no , no, they are not advancing, they are just standing, yes, i understand, and this is a question of how long this object that you will build, in which you will invest money, will stand, even if you are a ukrainian investor, i already i'm not talking about foreign ones, i, i understand, well , first of all, i think that the giants, which are quite

quickly destroy, they... will not be rebuilt, at least in such a situation, and secondly, what about the secured baltic states or poland? our idea that there is a nato nuclear umbrella, the moment we decide that it does not exist, there will also be a completely different situation with investments, but, by the way, we can analyze with you whether the investment movement in side of these countries, now it is also absolutely. interesting, by the way, the topic for research, which is happening with investments to the countries of central europe after 2022. i still looked more in eastern europe than in central europe. eastern - what is it? well, this is poland, i believe that it is exactly central - it is already austria. austria is already western, it is a political geography, it is changing to ours. i keep saying that ukraine, if it becomes a member

of the european union, will also be central europe in the coming years, and belarus and russia will be eastern. well, where well, she will be from the east, well, so she won’t be the only one, why , well, it can be so politically, it can fly, the political system is different, yes, according to it, so in this regard, i i meant a purely geographical one, that is , to see the visegrad four, what is happening there and to see balttia, this is an interesting idea, by the way, well, then we will be able to predict the future investment movement with you in principle. because if it turns out that now the investments are concentrated more there in the west, in the south of europe, or even go to other continents, relatively speaking, that is why we are talking about the economic boom in mexico, maybe because this is an area that no one has been to will attack, er, how to say, no one will attack if venezuela does not behave as predicted, so you see

that now the situation is practically unpredictable, well... who could have expected that this is how the events in israel will develop, well who? well, here is a person in front of you, what they will jump on, yes, and about what will go on like this from now on, about what will be a lot, well, i will tell you, i think that after the russian-ukrainian war , it was also possible to talk about it can speak from the point of view that by and large now, since we are talking about... the need for certain countries to think about the lives of the civilian population, wars cannot be quick, you know, a quick war, it's when you bomb everything to pieces, by the way, that's what it looked like. the operation of the united states in iraq, it was a massive bombing, but still it was point-blank, yes, but in any case, not dresden, yes, but in any case, even that

cannot be done now, not even since the time of george bush jr.'s political life has changed since, and that's why it's better for a year, on the other hand , what happened in afghanistan for a long time, well, it was still the next stage of military operations, then it was still yes. no, i agree that there can no longer be such a war as it was before. we can talk in the other direction, we can discuss with you the issue of whether there will be an outflow of the population after the end of the hot phase of the war, because the end, you mean the abolition of martial law, the abolition of martial law, the free exit from the country, we are now too we are in a rather artificial situation, like in a test tube, well, to be honest, i rather ... think that it should be preserved for the time being, because, well, let's put it this way, the passion that

was in the 22nd year, when there were huge queues for the military commissions and everything else, now it is no longer observed, and according to polls, well, i am skeptical of most polls, but less so, in ukraine the share is not so high. people who say that they are ready to defend ukraine with weapons in their hands, another issue is that there are already many at the front, well, a certain part has already died, or are seriously wounded, this is also something that must be taken into account, but i am afraid that if now to allow everyone to leave, then we did not count many men, already here the question arises, you are a citizen of ukraine , you... did not renounce your ukrainian citizenship when there was peacetime, you were satisfied with it, you were satisfied with the fact that you could travel there without a visa, or something else was convenient for you , but you were satisfied with something, then after

at the beginning of the game the rules of the game can no longer be changed, i absolutely agree with that, but i'm not talking about that, i'm talking about the situation when you keep talking about the fact that this heated phase of hostilities must end in the coming years, we decided what though it can not to be an axiom, but the end of the hot phase of the war means the end of martial law and mobilization, that is the fact that the president has now turned to the verkhovna rada with a proposal to extend it for the next six months, and so it will be automatically extended, will be extended on some day when there will be no such the hot phase of the war, whether de facto or with the signing of some armistice agreements, not even ukrainian-russian, but with mediators, it has stopped and the verkhovna rada of ukraine will not prolong it. martial law, therefore, does not prolong mobilization, there are no grounds, well, yes, it arises, now the question begins, will there be a second wave of migration or

not, will there be a second wave of migration or not, will be, will be, will be, because the men and women who settled there, adapted there, who do not have housing and work, they will most likely go to them there, such a threat definitely exists, there is no doubt, but again, what... you can't do anything here at all, here no legislation will stand in the way of this, none, well, just because , that it cannot be done, and i think that the only possibility if there will be an economic rise in ukraine, after the end of the hot phase, if it will be possible to realize yourself here. wow, if there is a restoration of housing, well, infrastructure in general, but primarily housing, and if business understands that it is easier and more profitable to make money here than there,

then there is a great chance that many people will return, and i would bet not only on for this latest wave, which started after february 24, and also for the return of those who left earlier, it can be... even children of migrants, that is , second-generation migrants, it is already possible, they can be to return, and it seems to me that this is the direction of our actions, and if we cannot return them , then to turn them, well, into a kind of agents of ukraine, so that they contribute to the image of ukraine , such, you know, its improvement, that is, such an option for israel or ireland, yes, yes, yes, and without this, without this investment. will go to ukraine, but here there is, you know, the question of return, in israel they are always happy for any repatriate who comes, and in israel they don't tell anyone, listen, you weren't with

us all these. i imagine myself tomorrow flew to israel, i say, you know, i want to become a citizen of israel, and this lady at the border control there or, i don’t know, in this department where citizenship is issued, they say, well, take your passport, but where were you on october 7, where were you on october 7, 2023 , why were you not interested in israel then, i know for sure that i will not face such a reaction at all, in ukraine already now... there is a reaction, well , there is a division, of course, the division is social, and that's howl , people come back, they want to do business, so they actually have more opportunities than those who who stayed here, and those who stayed here feel that they are serving the interests of those who did not survive the war in this way, because they are worse off, so this requires a very balanced public policy, which is why i am strongly opposed to that for the sake of returning people from abroad

, they should be given some special... preference, but this cannot be done in any case, the only people, well, whom society will forgive and even applaud for any preferences, are the military, the only, more- less so in such a privileged, psychological sense condition, in relation to them are those who have never left anywhere, not only abroad. who stayed like this all the time, well, kharkiv residents , i know a lot, i can already see in kyiv, the person says, i have not left anywhere, that is , there are, there are, of course, such moments, and if the authorities make mistakes, this division, which so far is only a division, a division is normal, can turn into a split, but then it will be

bad. this means that some measures are needed to adapt these people, and they need to be adapted, and maybe even more to adapt those who were and are today in transcarpathia, let's say, or i don't know there, in frankiv region, because there is no work as such, well, for as long as i can remember, for as long as i have been dealing with these problems and this is western ukraine. .. there was a labor surplus region, well , now i think it’s a different situation, no, it doesn’t matter, but where did it get everything else, well, because a huge number of people who work remotely, after all, we are dealing with a different economy in the world, well i have already seen that even japan wants to give foreigners so-called visas of digital nomads, japan did not want to see anyone at all, but not everyone, not everyone like that, but we also have such a generation of people, and you know, it turned out differently for us, and

these... who had an education, who expected to work remotely, they went abroad. abroad mostly , well, the least there is in poland, where 18% of the population is rural, the remaining 82% is urban, and let's say there are much more places in germany, in the czech republic, in italy, and what does rural mean. the population did not go abroad, where did it go, if there, well, you cannot live there, if it is an occupied territory, if it is a territory of active hostilities, then they went within the borders of ukraine, within the borders of ukraine the rural population is not too much, well, they can work remotely, the rural population is a different sector after all , labor, that's why the problems in the west, they remained, and i think that this is the forerunner.

internal migrants from the west to central ukraine are connected with this, because there is work in central ukraine. there, let's say, well, i don't know, well, the mhp, it works, but it didn't go anywhere. and we can talk about the appearance of some new, let's say, urban centers that conditionally replace these urban centers that were almost lost in these 10 years, well, not only that. donetsk is there with luhansk, but also kharkiv, which nevertheless decreased in terms of population, it decreased, it decreased, kherson definitely decreased, well, kharkiv and kherson have different weight categories. kharkiv is a classic metropolis, and i am absolutely convinced that despite its proximity to the border, kharkiv will retain the functions of a technical capital.