center your resources, kupyansk or the south? again, it is difficult to make a definitive assessment at this point, although we have access to intelligence on russian actions, it is important to recognize that the ukrainian side ultimately determines the direction of the russian attack. if ukrainian forces gain ground, russia can continue its current strategy. however, if any part of the ukrainian defense begins to crack, as, for example, the situation: in avdiivka, russia will most likely concentrate its efforts there. now it is premature to say whether russia will increase its attacks in a particular area, significant pressure is observed in many regions, in particular in the south near mariupol and on the western front near avdiivka. it may take another two weeks or so to assess how effectively ukrainian defenses are holding up in these areas before we can admit. where russia will concentrate its

efforts. it is important to recognize that it is difficult to predict russia's actions until it determines the areas of its success against ukraine on which it will focus its strategy. opposing russia, during a full-scale war, we understand that asymmetric actions are also important. undoubtedly, the primary goal of the strategic. there is a crimean bridge. its destruction would disrupt transportation links with crimea, forcing russia to rely on sea or land routes, creating logistical problems. also, any delays due to damage to the railway bridges will make it even more difficult for the russians to move, although asymmetric action can be effective, especially for disrupting enemy operations, i'm skeptical their direct influence on the front line. against

russia's full resources and capabilities, asymmetric engagements often require longer-range missiles and more maritime drones, which may be difficult to obtain. asymmetric actions are only truly effective when they are directly related to front-line operations. simply targeting the rear may not have the desired effect on the front unless executed with strategic ingenuity. the example of world war ii illustrates the strategic value of incapacitation key industrial facilities such as power stations, well, by blowing up german dams, as well as ball bearing factories, as they are essential to enemy equipment and mobility. today , disrupting the production of electronic chips could similarly limit an enemy's capabilities, but russia's access to these components from abroad complicates such an approach. sanctions

play a critical role in limiting russia's military capabilities by targeting key supplies such as artillery ammunition. after all, a well-trained staff and mastering the basic capabilities of artillery and drones remain indispensable components of our defense strategy. these foundations, combined with innovative approaches , are necessary for effective opposition to the russian. military power , i don't know, hundreds of russian soldiers die every day , russian aircraft are regularly shot down, but there is a feeling that they are starting to regroup, and some evidence of this is the change in the military districts of the russian federation. from the russian side, it is obvious that they quickly learn, adapt and are developing their strategies for conducting hostilities at a pace that is ahead of the pace of the ukrainian general staff.

there is no doubt about their effectiveness in implementing these changes. however, as i have emphasized before, ukraine must find a way to outsmart the russians strategically. creating uncertainty and disrupting their body positions proved to be an effective way to force them to retreat, as happened in izyum. even well-trained troops fled when faced with such a situation, and they simply mounted their bicycles and drove away. when the russians realize. that they have been outflanked, they become vulnerable and more likely to be ambushed. the danger is that the russians may face us head-on in a conventional soviet-style battle. in such scenarios , the russians' numerical advantage, larger ammunition reserves, and overall technological advantage make them stronger than ukraine. therefore, it is extremely important to review our approach to this conflict and consider alternative strategies, the continuation of the confrontation with russia using that. the same tactics that she

uses against us will only lead to further retreats on our part. it is important to think innovatively and apply tactics that focus on vulnerable places. for russia. new military districts. i don't think there is any clear logic behind it. i need time to study and understand the consequences of some russian changes. it seems that they are trying to innovate and take warfare to a new level, but their exact intentions are not yet clear. what will the spring-summer campaign be, as you see it, if viewed from strategic overview of the situation, whether in your opinion the enemy can... consider opening additional areas of the front, in particular in belarus. it is unknown, no one fully understands the situation due to various current factors. general tsirskyi and his new team aim to change the approach to warfare, which is the first variable. if they succeed, it could

change the dynamics of the conflict. however, without such changes, there is a risk of either a stalemate or further territorial losses for ukraine. the second variable is what will happen a proper training system for the ukrainian military has been created, as it currently does not exist. improved training can significantly increase the quality of ukrainian troops and their effectiveness in combat. the third change concerns support from europe and the us, particularly financial aid. if congress appropriates the funds, ukrainian forces will have access to more ammunition and resources, which will improve their combat capability. but the change is belarus, for now it remains independent, dare to even describe it that way. will take place this year elections, and we do not know what might change in lukashenka's mind. of course, we know that he will be re-elected, because

there will be no elections as such. there, this process is honed on the model of russia, he will simply become the president, gaining 147% of the votes, no matter how ridiculous it sounds. however, we do not know whether after re-election he will continue to run on his hind legs in front of putin, or whether he will still act of his own free will, and in that case, from the north, there will no longer be such a threat. you need to look at each of these variables and test them, and certainly, society should ask what changes will happen in the army, because it does not make sense to change all the commanders and appoint new ones. if nothing changes after the arrival of new commanders. if they continue to do the same thing, then perhaps this rotation should not have been done because the desired result will not be achieved, so the event will now focus on whether there is a positive dynamic after the arrival of the new command in the direction of the western way

of fighting and the western way the training of fighters, and not the continuation of the implementation of the consequences of the soviet legacy. a couple of days ago , an extremely important event took place. summit in the elysée palace in paris, president macron gathered people and promised, so to speak, that military support will increase, so on the one hand, this is an extremely good signal, although we very often divide all promises in half. president macron looks worried and maybe he is hesitating, yes, because the war on the european continent has every prospect of getting involved sooner or later, but one... another member of nato, and accordingly, the europeans will have to do something, not just promise taurus missiles, which then they will not give. first, let's clarify that there is nothing particularly new in this situation, it's just another step forward along the same

trajectory. macron's recognition of a threat to europe is rather a political maneuver aimed at strengthening his own image against the background of scholz and influence in europe. rather than a real concern about ukraine. any predictions, new actions in quotation marks, or support from france, could have been provided a few months ago, which emphasizes the political nature of his statements. it's worth noting that french aid often falls short of expectations, a trend that should temper any hype about yet another pledge. at the same time as some northern european countries. such as estonia, finland, and poland are taking tangible steps to address the situation, many other european countries are far from realizing the full severity of the threat they would face without american support. macron's statements lack the necessary force and

energy to show true affection. if he was really seriously targeted, we would have seen deployed french troops on ukrainian soil a long time ago. however... the rhetoric suggests that he talks more than he does, serious countries prefer action to talk, while macron's approach seems to be built on rhetoric rather than actual action. regarding the united nations, it is important to recognize its limited effectiveness and influence. the un, nowadays, is just some kind of bazaar, behind which stands the same number energy, as much as any supermarket chain in europe. unfortunately, these are the same words without action. similarly, the european union has not fully realized the urgency of the situation and has not resorted to decisive measures. thus, despite the rhetoric and debate, there is little to indicate substantive change or meaningful action.

the lack of concrete steps, such as the deployment of troops in ukraine, shows that the current situation is characterized more by talk than by real transformations. thank you very much for this extremely important conversation in our dramatic time. sir colonel, i want to remind our viewers what is currently on the air. was a retired british army colonel, military expert glen grant. god save ukraine, god save the king. there are 10% discounts on lysac in podorozhnyk pharmacies, you and oshchad. there are discounts on maridos - 15% in pharmacies plantain for you and. bleeding and inflammation of the gums - my advice lakalot active lakad active actively overcomes bleeding

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to ukraine, mark, i congratulate you. glory, everyone is glad to welcome the audience. well, the population the russian federation, i think, was waiting for its führer in order to analyze, so to speak, new guidelines, he started, so to speak, about fishing, you understand, about painting the grass, about new heating lines, about some, i don’t know, country houses cooperatives, about everything ... anything, but not about the key. the number of corpses, i.e. at least a quarter of a million russian soldiers who died in ukrainian black soil, does not scare him in principle, that is, the system has entered into some kind of, you understand, cannibalistic stability. you know, there must have been several versions of this report, including or not including some sharp points, especially regarding the war in ukraine and some issues related to... the international agenda, everyone expected that something would be said in the context of transnistria, there were some reasons for this

, because the kremlin deliberately created such a situation, this is not the first time that expectations are deceived in a good or bad sense, it is already like who knows, and it looked like an ordinary campaign speech on the eve of the so-called elections on march 17, like a report on the work done , it looks something like this. parthosactive is so well known from soviet times, airports, horticulture and so on, that is, in this sense, they went for a softer version, what was the reason for this, it is difficult to say. it seems to me that they decided not to make the topic of the war central, not to connect with it, to quietly pass the 2 and a half weeks remaining until the formal x-day, that is, the vote for the führer, which, of course, will be followed. it doesn't matter how they vote, the result will be announced: 70%, turnout

and 80% support for putin. therefore, they decided not to bother and decided to go clean bureaucratically this moment. although someone will say why it was necessary to schedule this performance on february 29, a leap day that happens once every four years. the date is very symbolic for this. and we know that the month of february is so important for putin, because he killed nemtsov in february, killed navalny in february, started a war with ukraine in february, that is, he already could. it is to be held on march 1 or 2, that is , the date was chosen, who believes in numerology, maybe not by chance, we assume that, but with all that was limited to a purely bureaucratic set, that is a little letting off steam, because in general putin is convinced that everything is going more or less well, not perfectly, but more or less well. and echelons in

refrigerators of russian soldiers, somehow they don't bake it, that is, we don't see it. in principle , some kind of social feedback. well, of course , yes, that's why he doesn't feel the threat and danger from this factor of the costs of the war, that is, a significant number of dead servicemen, losses of personnel. does not occur, this is not feedback. he himself will not pedal this topic, or in any way to solve or restrain it. if the people are not indignant, then in principle, everything goes more or less normally. judge for yourself, on the second anniversary of the war, zelensky speaks and talks about 31,000 dead ukrainian soldiers and at least five times as many dead russians. i think the ratio is correct. some argue whether this number is accurate or not, but the ratio is quite

real. moreover, western sources paint the same picture. and what was said about losses. from ukrainian sources. here is one single number announced the loss to shoigu in september 2022. 50,900 losses. after that, not a single number was ever called. is this a coincidence? in my opinion, it is not accidental at all. that is, the topic of losses is removed from the agenda, tightly pressed so that it does not sound in any form. look, some z-block got shot recently. and why did he shoot himself, because his own were killed because he said that avdiivka was a senseless waste of 16 thousand lives. he repeated the figure that sounded from american sources regarding the official losses, that avdiyivka is a cemetery of the mobilized, and that's all.

he was brought to justice, he hanged himself, i think lubyanka's hand also played a role there. maybe not directly, but one way or another, that this morse or frost was rinsed by solov'ov himself. accordingly, this is a direct methodology, a direct attitude that we do not talk about losses, losses do not exist at all, they are hidden somewhere, but this topic should not be menstruous in any way, in any way , neither in bad nor in good. also, you know, judge for yourself, why don't they put up monuments to the heroes in some cities, i know information from... they hide quietly, without fanfare, they quietly put it down, closed it, buried it, no fanfare, no tv shows, we are burying the heroes. here we saw in ukraine when hearses go, military funerals go, people gather, stand along the road, we saw it, that is, farewell is a big memorial day, it is a very significant event for the city and small towns of ukraine, because people

understand that they died young people for sovereignty, for the existence of ukraine, in russia this... there is nothing, in the crackling of words, he says in this report that the new elites, and the veterans are who, prisoners, who they sent and they did not return, who are these veterans, who is this elite, you understand, this is the difference, if this topic arose in russia, and it was necessary to respond to it, then of course they would somehow do something if the people themselves does not demand answers for these two-year losses, it is not yet known how many will die, so why should he raise this thesis himself. many western analysts talked about the fact that he is preparing one or another for himself there, i don't know if there are demonstrative or symbolic moments before the moment of reassignment, but no, we see that the spring-summer season is seriously, seriously heating up campaign, i think so, there are reasons behind it, why else? of course, it is important for putin to demonstrate military success, but all this

is happening against the background of this disorder and wavering among ukraine's allies, in particular in... the states. we see, as we predicted from last year, that the election campaign of november 2024 in the usa will not only affect the unity of the ranks, the consistency, the continuity of aid to ukraine. the allies assumed these obligations themselves, and not because ukraine bargained for something. they themselves took these commitments, they declared it themselves, for example, about the f-16, about etacams and other types of weapons, already thinking, when after trump's speech in

carolina, the europeans, look how they cheered up, due to the fact that trump, who will soon be nominated, at least by the republican party, as the main candidate, but we don't know what will happen in november, maybe he will win the elections, he declares such things that really confuse the european allies, it turns out that the usa is going in the role of guarantor, defender of the main western power, leader of the free world. it is interesting, if it is really so, then for sure it is then will greatly affect not only ukraine, but also european and other allies around the world. if they cannot agree in congress to provide funds, i emphasize this meager amount of funds, comparing what is spent on other programs in the united states, then this shows glory.

of course, they think that the moment is favorable for some kind of attack on a wide front, or in certain parts of it, in order to achieve positional success until all that is happening in the usa is over. until november is almost 8 months, during this time a lot will happen, probably the kremlin leadership connects its plans, military plans with this situation. mark , why was it necessary to remove navalny, the month of february , symbolism, but anyway, well, the person was, you know, beyond the urals, constantly sat or was kept in an isolation cell and so on and so on, that is, here too... it’s gone, i’m inclined to believe the version that he himself expressed before it was expressed by fcb maria povchyk, who is such an important figure within the system of

navalny's team, said that some kind of exchange was being prepared, even if it was not about navalny, a decision has already been reached, because you know, exchange is such a thing, i myself took an indirect part in the exchange of ukrainian political prisoners. i know all this, agreed, did not fulfill, postponed, that is, there are many factors that influence, even random, not that big political ones, but i believe that the west tried to exchange navalny, tried to get navalny out of the russian prison, why putin him killed, first of all, he kills everyone, they tried to kill navalny in 2020, when they poisoned him as a rookie. in revenge, they killed prigozhin, they killed many other people. why don't they kill navalny in advance? in prison, he would

not be able to have any influence, and if he were free in europe or america, would anyone be able to vouch for him? what was his biography and what kind of challenge would he throw to the kremlin? it's not a question of fear, it's a question of how they see the solution to the problem. they see all problems as nails that need to be driven in with a hammer, and they have no other vision. at most, they are not afraid of the consequences. earlier , they were somehow afraid, circling, but now they held the elections as they did, even their own the same candidate, nadezhdin, who was nominated, accepted and not allowed to participate in the elections, although he was a completely controlled candidate, they even decided to play it safe in this matter. so why... why not play it safe when it comes to the main opponent of the kremlin, which navalny was. navalny really was an anti-system politician. we

all understood with our minds that they would not let him go alive, they were upset over him a lot. but they released khodorkovsky at one time, and khodorkovsky plus or minus sat quietly. it's not that it's quiet, because after all, khodorychkovsky was released from a different time, the regime was different. now we are dealing with an almost completed totalitarian system, i emphasize totalitarian. let me remind you, at the end of 2013, when khodorkovsky was formally amnestied, i don't remember exactly, it seems that this was the question. why it was done, because it was done at a time when moscow had to show something with the olympics. at that time there was an olympics, even then an authoritarian. putin's personalist regime fought for some relations with europe, allies, partners now after the war, after half a million dead there in ukraine, what is the point

of portraying something? i can well imagine the conversation between patrushev, who is the main protagonist of all these cruel measures, and putin in a dispute with vaino, the head of the administration of the president of the russian federation, and krienko, the first deputy in charge of domestic policy. and what should we be afraid of, we are already war criminals, but by killing a person, we solved the problem, prevented riots during the elections, we removed part of the headache . "we act like this now, we are now satraps, thieves, why should we portray anything? and this proves that they used to depict, and with khodorkovsky they also depicted. putin has changed into a different guise, now he doesn't need to portray anything, because everything fades against the background of the war. one death of navalny turns into an ordinary single manifestation

against the background of the statistics of a terrible war." how many more will be beaten in the next two years, that's what we're talking about, so it seems to me that feeling this degree, just the reflection has become less, that's all. some kind of direct articulation of the theme of elections and their consequences with a call not to recognize putin as the legitimate president. why then, i think, and now they will not remove the justification in the form of the fact that if we do not recognize him as a legitimate president, then how will we conduct peace negotiations, that is, not because they do not consider him legitimate, because they know very well that represent elections in russia, they know perfectly well what this regime is, for them the methodology of real politics is much more acceptable in view of the choice of means of response, you say that it is possible not

to recognize? and then admit how it was with lukashenko, the situation is different here, because putin is a significant threat to europe, so they don't want to anger him. here is a simple example: i and my colleagues talked more than once with senior and junior gutkov, with other people, with representatives of the foreign ministry of france, with macron's adviser, they also talked about this topic, literally in the fall of 2023, they talked about whether they would recognize or not , as they will be... we were told unofficially that this issue is difficult and debatable. we asked whether president macron could accept the russian opposition as an alternative to the self-proclaimed führer? and the answer was: no, the subtext was, what is the point of draining putin? because having recognized some alternative, you take responsibility and risks, which the west

does not dare to take in the general atmosphere. if it was a collective decision, then something could be done even in the security council of the united nations, but there is no such unity. there is no unity, not even on the question of joining some european armies to ukraine, there is no unity on the supply of weapons. look at the debate between scholz and macron, no unequivocal unity regarding help to the victorious end. elections and as a result derived from this decision to act must be a general unity and position which is not possible now. mark, well, i agree with that, this is an extremely important point, well, going back to the exclusion of russia from the council of the un, it would be possible to simply freeze it there.