they will include diplomatically, that is , they will not use force, but they will try diplomatically, that is, the hopes in baku that if they face moscow, they will come to their aid from turkey, are they useless? well, it's not 1918, 100%. and tell me, in principle , it was believed that turkey and russia could come to an understanding regarding syria, and they hoped for the normalization of the situation, at least there, now we can talk about the fact that turkey can restore its relations with damascus and that at least there will be a certain stabilization of the regional situation and that then the refugees will be able to of turkey to return to syria, how realistic is this? well, so far it seems unrealistic, there is already a key note that bashar assad wants to restore sovereignty over the entire territory. turkey is categorically against it, and because it, well, first of all, does not believe beshar assad and quite rightly thinks so. that

after he restores sovereignty, a huge number of people who moved to the north of syria, escaping from the lash of bashar al-assad, they will again find themselves in turkey, so it is cheaper for them to maintain that security zone and control the northern territories of syria with the expectation that in the end someday they will build those settlements there, resettle those syrians back to the country. thus creating a sanitary border for the kurds between turkey and syria, and accordingly the parties will sooner or later come to some kind of understanding, and so far i don't see any possibility for damascus to come to an agreement with anteiro. it does not bother you at all that such conflicts, as long-lasting as the syrian ones, cease to be of interest to anyone at all, that is, you and i are also briefly discussing it against the background of some others. events related to

the region, and by and large , fighting continues there, people are dying, and there is bombing, if we open the middle eastern media, we will see that nothing has ended there. this is exactly what i would say, from the point of view of the ukrainian war, it worries me all the time, well, you know, i can say a paradoxical thing, a lot of syrian oppositionists, syrian, well, no, no, not mujahideen, not islamists, but secular opposition, they are very serious. actively monitor the events in ukraine participate in helping ukraine, counting on the fact that in the future it can seriously affect the syrian conflict, and including that they count on the fact that ukraine can play a greater and significant role in order to resolve the conflict, given that , that russia is present there, and accordingly, russia is the enemy, the enemy of my enemy, my friend, and the russian presence there has decreased due to the war in ukraine, it can be said that the russians no longer have such ...

all the possibilities that they had earlier, precisely because they simply do not have enough strength. and they cut back its land, its land presence, yes, yes, and significantly, and all these positions are occupied by the iranians. and aviation support is another preserved. well, by the way, iran, what role does it play now in and in this situation in the region, when it can support syria there, it can support armenia, it can support hezbollah in... lebanon and hamas, and so despite for all its relations with moscow, it remains necessary for many players, the same france, when it comes to regulation in the caucasus, yes, without a doubt, and the french, to things, also duli actively cooperated with iran, and everyone perfectly remembers that it was french firms that sat at a low start in the 15th year, when it was signed. and the nuclear

agreement, well, the nuclear deal, the so-called nuclear deal, and the french companies were the first to come to make agreements, yes, without a doubt, the french in this sense - can be difficult partners for the americans, let's say, for them, their policies, yes, hard policy, ala trump, but there is no doubt that the iranians, well, they remain a regional country, a large regional of the country. their interests, and of course, they rely on several pillars, that is, there is the support of shiite organizations, where in the middle east, and the establishment is safe, well, countries around iran, with which you can interact, look for external partners, well, now they are actively promoting cooperation with in turkish, with russia and china, yes, but they are trying to flirt with turkish. well, in other words, well

, we can even say that relations with the countries of the persian gulf have improved, and after years of crisis and serious deterioration, that's why in principle. the french are more, you know, complex, political creatures than, in principle, it is customary to think about them. thank you, mr. igor, ihor simyvalos, the director of the center for middle eastern studies, was in touch with us in this program, we talked about the situation in the middle east, let me remind you that today is actually the 739th day of russia's war against ukraine. soon we will be out there for a thousand days at some point, it's such a long war, but at the same time, which is also unexpected, i think for many today is the 149th day of the war in the middle east, and no prospects the end of this war is also long-term and we do not see it, i think you can conclude from our conversation with mr. igor, and thus

we live in an era of long-term conflicts, if something starts, it does not end, and this is also a very important moment to evaluate this situation in which we are with... we will now take a break for a few minutes , please stay with us and the people's deputy of ukraine, member of the verkhovna rada of ukraine committee on defense security and intelligence serhiy rakhmanin will come to our studio, we will talk with him about the whole current situation with its trends and problems. stay with us. bleeding and inflammation of the gums. my advice. lakalut active. lakalut aktiv actively overcomes bleeding gums, protects against periodontitis and visibly tightens. yasna lakalut aktiv - an action that you feel immediately. novelty. lakalut aktiv++ with two-phase technology and a plus of active ingredients. for even more active protection lacalot aktiv+. there are discounts on combi mushroom. 20% in autotheques plantain to you and save. ordinary things become unreal. heavy

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we continue the political club program on the tv channel and we have a guest, a people's deputy of ukraine, a member of the verkhovna rada committee on national security , defense and intelligence, serhiy rakhmanin, i congratulate mr. serhiy, good evening, well , some time has passed since the replacement of the commander- in-chief of the armed forces of ukraine, the president says that the new commander-in-chief has carte blanche for personnel changes, which has actually already changed, if we can talk about changes in military planning, personnel policy. well, so far nothing has changed significantly, in fact, and objectively speaking, it could not have changed.

in the conditions of tough enough battles, very it is difficult to radically change something, but even what is changed, it still actually affects the organization of the troops and to some extent even the mood in the troops, because in any system, when a new leader appears, personnel changes begin accordingly , and syrskyi is no exception, he began to do it quite actively, but... but it seems to me a bit early to talk about any significant changes, because, well, no matter how one feels about syrskyi, the general staff and the new chief, in there are a lot of them now a lot of current work, what, as far as i understand, are going to be changed in the near future, and such, well, let's say, certain steps in this direction are already being taken, this is, first of all, the organizational structure and decision-making structure, i will remind you that in our there is such a structure, there is such a... and such a body called cos, the command of the joint forces, it

should actually plan operations, well , logically, the general staff should plan campaigns, primitively speaking, and cos should plan operations , so it was thought, yes it was thought of, it was realized that way, but in fact kos was removed from the planning and implementation of the operation from the beginning of the full-scale invasion, kos was something of a kind... an appendage, a fifth wheel in the importation, if you will, and its leader, mr. naev, to him, excuse me , in fact they invented some kind of burden there, for example, to take care of the defense of the north there, etc., now, as far as i understand, syrsky still wants to return not completely, but still a significant part of kossuth to the management system, to the decision-making system, this is the first, second , well silsky in fact, it is going to, well, at least there are such plans and certain steps are being taken, to optimize something. ru of the armed forces. so far there are statements, so far there is some preliminary work there, whether it will translate into

concrete things, we will see, but there i will not say that, say, optimization of the structure of the armed forces, the defense forces in general, the armed forces, in particular, it can be, say , by no means a substitute for mobilization there, but it was theoretically possible to find a certain internal resource, because, let's say, the personnel and position structures that manage the armed forces, they were writing bozanal. and they are in fact, in many ways, they do not correspond to today's realities and today's requirements. these are the two things that they talk about both officially and unofficially, i mean both the glavkom and the new chief of the general staff. and what will happen, well, it will be clear in the near future. what happened on the tendrivska spit was caused by ukrainian special forces. we only know about the death of people, but we do not really understand the situation itself. do you understand the situation itself? not until the end, i don’t have reliable information, but there are certain official details,

unofficial, but it is impossible to talk about, let's say, a hundred percent guarantee that what happened there, well, what can already be stated today is an unsuccessful operation, but which, unfortunately, ended tragically for us, but to talk about the fact that it is this the operation, with all its tragedy and drama, somehow affected... the course of events, unfortunately or fortunately, no. and what now affects your opinion, the course of events at the front? how much can we say that after the capture of avdiyivka the situation has stabilized, or is it still not possible to say that? she did not has stabilized, there are certain hints that it can stabilize, it will depend on two factors, on how quickly and efficiently the engineering and fortification structures in the defense line will be made, which, unfortunately, were not... made on time on many of the most in dangerous directions, in particular on avdiivka, i.e.

populated areas that are quickly enough, well, unnaturally fast, as the russians have been occupying for the last months, although at the cost of heavy losses, this is precisely the consequence of the fact that behind avdiivka, in fact, such strong structures that were around avdiyivka, which were erected for many years and could hold the enemy back for a long time, they are gone, and now in fact... those units of the military units of the formation that hold the enemy in this direction, they are actually imposing positional battles in order to so that those who are further on the second line... it is time to build certain fortifications, well, that is, we are talking about a complete set, a full line, but it is quite difficult to do this in the conditions of direct battles. the second problem, in addition to engineering and fortification structures, is in accumulating as much as possible and using the reserve as effectively as possible, it is quite difficult with the reserve due to the fact that

the percentage of mobilization is, well, let's say, low. and in view of the fact that on top of this there is an absolutely obvious problem, which is called the lack of ammunition, it complicates the situation even more, that is, if the lines of defense in the most dangerous directions are created quickly enough and they are strong enough, if it turns out to create the necessary reserve in order to restrain the enemy, the situation may stabilize in the near future, but for today , unfortunately, the enemy has a tactical, in some directions... even an operational initiative on a strategic, as i don't remember which of the western commentators wrote, there is definitely no strategic initiative there , a strategic initiative, it involves quite different things, much greater depth, much faster advancement and inflicting much greater losses and capturing much larger territories, but tactically operationally in some directions, in particular

on bakhmutsky, on avdiyivsky, the enemy has an advantage and is advancing faster than we would like, or can we say? to say that now putin is doing what was expected of him in february 2022, that is, he is trying to seize the east, to seize the entire donetsk region and luhansk region, let's say for a start, you know what the nuance is, the thing is that the basic task, well relatively speaking, the tasks that were set, as far as can be judged from the information that i have, these are the tasks that were set before the military, so this is the primary task there was just an exit to the administrative borders of donetsk and luhansk regions, they exist. and at the time of the invasion, and they did not change all this time, that is, this task, it is as it was and is, just the deadline is constantly changing, relatively speaking, the term by which the russian troops have to complete this task, simply during the fact that during actual hostilities, the situation changed, the military had additional options, additional tasks, but no one removed this task,

just now, well, relatively speaking, we will say complete. for the occupation of luhansk territory oblast and the maximum advance to the west, i.e. the occupation of most of the eastern territory of kharkiv oblast and access to the administrative borders of donetsk oblast, it remains, and they once again moved these deadlines, i.e. they never raised these issues before the army, well, they simply combined these issues with an attempt to seize large territories in the north, it was such an effect of a stretched front, i am not talking about the south, in fact in the north, well, at the beginning they did not... they did not plan at all that there would be resistance and did not plan, that there will be active hostilities, that is, and from what i can judge, they predicted that in the east there would be a small but victorious war for them, in the north, there would be, it would also be in the south, it would be a march, they were accumulating enough a large amount of equipment, not enough

in fact, the number of personnel , that is, of military personnel, well , relatively speaking, there was inadequately less infantry, that is, a huge amount of equipment was accumulated, not everyone remembers this video, photo, and indeed there was a lot, quite a lot , and i understand that apart from everything else, well firstly, the equipment gives mobility, and secondly , it was also a psychological effect, but in terms of personnel, i.e., the infantry, they were not provided properly, but in the east, in the donetsk luhansk region, they predicted war, why, because, well, again it is not a secret for anyone, it was not a secret before, and now they are already talking about it out loud, the absolute majority of our a... military , almost all the most combat-ready brigades were either fully or partially located in the territory of what was called the oos, operations of the combined forces , that is, on the territory of the donetsk and luhansk regions, they were well aware of this, and they understood that there would be hostilities there , and they believed that they would be fleeting, but there would be hostilities , and the rest they believed that since by and large

there are not many military personnel there, a missile airstrike will be carried out , which will destroy the equipment , the control system, the air defense system, and the demoralized ukrainian troops in small numbers will simply flee and they will enter kyiv, enter large cities and there simply another government will be declared there, but the war is like a war, it was foreseen in the east, and then the situation changed and accordingly, therefore the situation changed and their behavior and tactics changed, they changed several times, starting with the nature of the use of troops and ending with the task , which was placed directly in front of the commanders. you understand why the publication of the journal about the terms of the peace agreements of 2022, which we wrote about at the time, caused such a reaction in the public, in us, and in the west. i think, everyone told everyone exactly in the amount, i would say, that was reported now, just because the documents appeared, i was surprised, to be honest, i did not see anything new there,

firstly, maybe some people forgot about it, maybe some people did not know about it, there is nothing fundamentally new there, well, except for the fact that there are references to documents, but in fact, after even the officials spoke about it, well , the type of medina, yes the type of medina, the type of arahamia, for example, he sometimes there are highlights. and the content of these negotiations was partly missed there, but less with that, nothing fundamentally new, about what was written about in the 22nd year, i'm sorry, i didn't see it there, why? well, it's hard for me to say, i'm not a psychologist, this is rather a question for a psychologist, maybe it's just an effect of the fact that people are constantly looking for options to end the war? maybe, maybe, maybe it's fueled for some purpose by this kind of reaction, the emphasis on these things, i think it actually went from... our reaction, it's related to the reaction of the west, the west, well, at least part of it, because the west is heterogeneous, the west is not you can equate there, conditionally speaking, greece and germany, or, for example, france or

poland, yes, there was and still is a large part of politicians who probe the soil for, let's say, points of contact, for possible topics, for negotiations, and for them, a return to those times is another attempt to once again impose a discussion, a discourse about possible...negotiations, i understand that now russia may consider even these conditions to be very limited goals for itself, yes, i think that now yes, i think that putin , against the background of those local, but still successes, what the russians have been waiting for, they are now in such a victorious mood, and they , relatively speaking, if we fantasize, i do not see any grounds for any negotiations for any negotiations, but if we assume that now they have begun , i think that the conditions that the russians would set. in these fantasy negotiations, they would be much tougher than those in istanbul. why? because in istanbul, and before that in belarus, why? because on the one hand

, the russians at that time were, well, actually stunned by the resistance that they really are felt so they advanced and advanced quickly enough, and in all directions, but they met resistance and they suffered from the first days, that is, they lost as much per day as they planned to spend for the whole company. and it is clear that they were wavering at that time, they were a little confused, they were trying to take advantage of the advantage that they had, that is, the war without declaring war, the advantage that they got because of that, it really gave them the strategic initiative at that time , but there was resistance, losses they had huge forces from the first days, which they did not expect, they did not destroy our air defense and aviation, they did not destroy the management system, the government did not flee, and therefore, well, the government in general, relatively speaking, by the government i mean not... the cabinet ministers, and let's say, the governance of government officials from the president, starting and ending with all high-ranking officials, the vast majority, at least of them, and then they were ready for certain compromises, and to a

certain extent, obviously, that option seemed more or less conscious to them, now i i think they are would put forward even more ultimatum demands, well, that is, we can actually state that this very idea that some real negotiations can take place is not a forum, not a formula. peace there with the participation of our allies , some share the idea of ​​territorial integrity, and real negotiations with moscow on the one hand, kyiv on the other, that all this just now looks absolutely unrealistic, that is, i can’t even imagine such a format, no grounds, nothing , putin absolutely does not need these negotiations now, once or twice, putin does not think that he is ready to talk with ukraine in any way, he believes that he should talk there with the united states, and he does not hide it, and it is desirable. after trump wins, of which he is sure, and moreover, even though i have not seen any hints that in ukraine there are, well, among those

people who make decisions, people are ready for such negotiations, for a million reasons , firstly, well, it is clear that any negotiations will mean, on the one hand, theoretically a respite for us, but much more, much more what's worse, it's a respite for the russians, and i don't think any sane person in the world doubts that they will try to regain... their strength and renew their offensive . if we talk about what the actions of the russians might be in the ukrainian direction, they will try to engage in internal destabilization, this is what officials say about the so-called maidan 3 plan . what is it? well, i don't have the information that, theoretically, the security services or the intelligence committee mentioned there might have. finally, about its existence in general , maybe there is something like that there, i don't have such information, but from my place, from my position, i don't really believe, well, at least in

the way it is described. i don’t really believe in the existence of such a plan, but when we talk about the details, what actually changed, what’s new here, did the russians destabilize the situation in ukraine, so destabilized, well, all these years, in fact, well, the last 20 years intensively, they actually have been since 91 in 1992, they shook things up, well, from 1992 to 1991, we were a little before that, after a full-scale invasion, they tried use any opportunity, and do they use agents and useful idiots here, so use it? will they do it, they will, they will use any loophole, any opportunity, what is new, i did not understand when it is tied to the expiration of zelensky's theoretical term of office, yes, because in fact i will remind you that according to the law, he does not have to compile his powers, so it is strange to me why it can be used in any way inside ukraine, because i will remind you that all polls show that the absolute majority

of ukrainians, ukrainians do not... believe that now is the time for elections, and they trust the president, the bearer of power, yes, that is, if someone does not treat him as the bearer of power, as the supreme commander before him , they trust him, how it can stir up, whom it can stir up, and in general, how it is possible to organize a maidan, well, how about a direct participant of two maidans, well, it is impossible to organize a maidan, this has already been shown, you can organize some kind of action that will be suppressed during ok , no 15 minutes, two hours, let it be a day, well, how in the conditions of the... martial law can you organize something in general, so that it remains outside the zone of attention of the security forces, without a political representative, both the maidans will in fact have a huge political representative, what surprises me , okay, let it be true, let there be some kind of mysterious network, extensive , which is planning, so there is a disturbance there, which theoretically can lead to attempts to seize power, if intelligence, counter-intelligence in special bodies have relevant

information, they... have quietly, promptly suppress all this, crush it and report to the president, if necessary, it reminds me of mario going to rob a bank, well, yes, we will have maidan three, we know these people, if you know why they are not sitting, well, it looks a bit comical , i would say , well, you know, wildly, i would even say, that is why i have such a rather skeptical attitude towards it, i emphasize once again, at the same time, i am sure that the russians have shaken up and will continue to... always shake up the situation, as a matter of fact, we are trying to shake things up to the extent of our much smaller resources situation in russia, it is absolutely natural, we are enemies. and in general, if we talk about the danger of destabilization, not provoked, but real, i mean, connected with some internal problems with people's moods, will there not be signs at a certain moment, fatigue from war. all the more, people expect all the time that the war is about to end,

we see. according to sociology, most people now believe that victory will be achieved in 2020 there in the 4th year, someone on the 25th, well, the 24th year will pass, the 25th, the 26th, who will definitely be influenced, it is already influencing, well, it is clear it was, well, even in the 22nd year , it was clear that if the war dragged on, and the war was, well, i don’t know, they tried to refrain from these forecasts, even those who understood, it was clear that it was a war for years, and early whether it is too late for fatigue. and fatigue, both physical and moral fatigue, both of those who directly perform combat tasks, and of those who are involved , too, to a different extent, much less, differently, but everyone gets tired, people who make decisions get tired, people who fight get tired , the people who are waiting for their brothers, husbands, sisters who are fighting, all are getting tired gets tired, it's completely natural, and the shaking also

affects this fatigue, of course, by the horn... of this fatigue, it's difficult to calculate, well, probably there is no technique that would allow you to do this, what can affect, can affect some serious collapse of the line the front in any direction, this can be a trigger that can act on, let's say , so significantly worsen the general mood among military personnel and in the body, this can be, and that is why i think that both the commander and... the stake , i hope they are still there properly discuss all the issues that are within their competence, they understand that this is a problem, and they all do everything in their power to prevent it from happening. this story is not necessarily, but theoretically, some kind of collapse, not just there, conditionally speaking, the loss of another settlement, unfortunately, this will also happen, well...