the threshold of this fatigue is also affected, it is difficult to calculate it, well, there is probably no technique that would allow it to be done, which can affect, it can affect some serious collapse of the front line in any direction, this can be a trigger that can work on, say, well such a significant deterioration of the general mood among the servicemen and the rearguard, this may be precisely because... i think that both the commander and the battalion, i hope that they still properly discuss all the issues that are within their competence, they understand that this is a problem, and they all do everything that depends on them to prevent this from happening, this story is not necessarily, but theoretically, some kind of collapse, not just there, relatively speaking, the loss of the next of the settlement, unfortunately, this will also happen, that is, we must prepare for the fact that at some certain time, before the front line stabilizes. offensive rush, while

the russians still have resources, it will take place, but in some serious breakthrough to the depth, which would be connected, let's say, with the capture of a large part of the territory, or with the encirclement or destruction of a large group of ukrainian troops, this can have an effect, so everything must be done to prevent this from happening, which will be extremely difficult to do in conditions of, well, let's say, insufficiently high rates of mobilization. no matter what anyone says , and a significant lack of ammunition, this is also such a secret , the policemen with boliprips will not solve the issue in the near future, when they already say that they have already been found there, the money has already been found there, they are already yielding to him, well, i would be restrained in the positive evaluations, i will say that huge efforts are being made, and completely different, in different directions, involving different forces, different structures, this is being done, but until

it is resolved, well, let's say so, until the story with the restoration of a full-fledged, a complete package of military-technical assistance from the united states, and until it is accelerated , i emphasize, the pace of setting up the production of ammunition in europe is accelerated, because now it is happening very slowly, then any attempts to find ammunition in this or that place, it will be plugging holes, but it will not significantly solve the problem, the same... also applies to the domestic market, so certain efforts are being made to produce a certain range of ammunition, this is being done, and their number is gradually, but increasing, but it is extremely insufficient for primarily objective reasons in order to meet the needs of the armed forces, because a lack of ammunition is a lack of ammunition, even a fantastic number of drones will still not replace artillery ammunition on the battlefield until that these are... incomparable things. will the russians

try to storm kyiv or odessa again? well, let's put it this way, come on, come on, if we're talking from a military point of view, at the moment, there are no hints that this is possible. why? because in order to, for example, try to take odesa, well, first you need to take mykolaiv, and that is still a long way off, let me remind you that on the contrary, we, let ukraine. does not mean that ukrainian soldiers, with heroic and incredible efforts, even gain positions on the eastern bank of the dnieper, that is, in order to reach odessa must make a huge effort, in the north there are not enough forces to plan such an offensive, firstly, secondly, well then the effect of surprise still worked, after all they talked about it, it was hard to imagine that it will happen, now we are ready for it, so

there will be no such promotion, but throwing away huge resources, that is , the losses will be much greater, let's call it that, but is it possible in theory? yes, and with, well , first of all, well, a huge temptation to kyiv is an arm’s length away, if you enter from in belarus, it is true, there is such a temptation, it remains, and it is clear that by capturing the capital, you actually win the war, well , at least putin thinks so and... i think that putin does not imagine a successful end to this war without taking over odessa, kharkiv and kyiv. this is a fix idea for him, he doesn't even hide it in my opinion. that is, the risk remains and will remain as long as this war lasts. for today, just for now, i don't think there is such a threat, but it may arise tomorrow, the day after tomorrow, so far they are forced to spend reserves , resources in other directions, and even

... there is a nuance here, if, why in military art is an art, more art than science, because no matter how you plan, you you have to... live by the laws of the genre , how the attack develops, it is like water, as long as there is room to flow, it flows, and as long as there is an opportunity to attack, then you will attack, even realizing that in principle you should stop, well , when they if they run into some serious enough resistance, they will stop, but as long as there is an opportunity to develop the offensive in the directions where it is taking place, they will do it, which means that they have to spend resources there in the kupyansk district, in the robotyny district, in the district... in the avdiyiv direction, conditionally there on to bakhmudskyi, that is, advancing on different paths to the chasovoy yar region, to the kurakhovo region , further on in the text, that is, for now, for today, there is no such direct risk, but this risk will always be there, if we talk about all

these statements that are now heard from paris about that even here the troops of nato members can be present, is this a suf in the position, or just raising the stakes is purely diplomatic? actually, it's very interesting. history, and i think that the answer to this question is known only by one person and his surname is macron, well, maybe there is a certain number of people from his immediate environment, where it came from, and i think that macron just obviously decided for himself , that there is an excellent chance to seize the initiative, the most powerful, the brightest leader in europe against the background of how he believes buyaguza sholza, who has no fish, no meat there, which means there is no charisma, no leadership qualities of any kind. and without taurus, yes, and it is necessary, it is necessary to do something that would attract attention to you. i think that macron perfectly understands that a military contingent will not appear in ukraine in the near future, if it does appear in the foreseeable future, then it will definitely not take part in hostilities, because well, show me

at least any, no necessarily in the west, in any point of the globe, a person who is ready to fight with the russians now, therefore there is none, but a person who has nuclear weapons and... a country that has nuclear weapons, he understands very well what the risk is, so i think it's a beautiful gesture, but there's a second nuance, i think that actually, thanks to this experiment of scholz, well, the discussion itself has reached another level, the experiment of macron, macron, forgive me, almost a freudian slip, and it can actually be of some benefit to us, despite the quarrels that they have started now, because it relieves a certain pain threshold, well, and the third... moment, well, there is such a thing a version that no one knows in the west, in particular, now we are generalizing the west, no one knows to what breaking point this war must continue, what must happen in order for something decisive to happen, for example, a negotiation, and this is a possible probing ground, how

will russia react to this, is she not ready to make certain concessions, compromises, fearing, because she is also afraid, well, this too, i think it is not a secret, of a direct confrontation with... nato countries, the war is blackmailing them, but i far from thinking that she is ready to fight with them, especially now that she has lost, suffered such huge expenses , and in all components, and in fact they did not blackmail it until today, you can say, therefore, yes, yes, russia has always blackmailed, and now finally our western partners have another tool of blackmail, and maybe they want to see how russia reacts to it, so it's more of a conversation right now, but a conversation that can be helpful to a certain extent, because it really does take down a ... certain pain threshold, so she brought up a topic that, that was vetoed , embargo, even, even out loud this word pronounce, and even the reserved position of canada is also an additional plus in this discussion, it is clear that, well, imagine a contingent

of any country that would officially take part in hostilities on the side of ukraine, well , now it looks absolutely incredible, and i remember i remember that back in 2014, the russians said that... that nato soldiers would appear here, that 's all, the end of the world, war, they just blackmailed with this, well, yes, well, there are a lot of them, they painted a lot of these red lines there , but we and our partners constantly passed them and there were no consequences, on the one hand, on the other hand, maybe , again, it might have been a certain reaction, a certain response, a version, let's say, an experiment, if you will, of the fact that the russians raised the bar of blackmail again when they started hinting at threats to withdraw nuclear weapons , elements of nuclear weapons, let's call it that, into space, well, now putin says that he was not going to, putin did not say much, putin

said that he would not encroach on crimea in any way, that there are no russian troops in donbas, and putin said that there will never be an attack on ukraine, what he says putin, well, i think that no one believes him, not even in russia. if we talk about these fears, which we can see now, according to the reaction to macron's words, it means that the washington nato summit will also end without any decisive ones. decisions regarding ukraine, what can happen in general, i think that even theoretically talking about the washington nato summit is too early, until it has taken place, until it has been determined, let's say, the future fate of who will be the next host in the white house, but he will be before that , he will be before that, but i think that, well, it will already be obvious before the washington summit that with a greater or lesser degree of probability there will be one or another candidate, this... firstly, secondly, i think that after all, a lot will depend

, including, strangely enough, for some, on the course of events on the front line. if there's going to be enough disappointing things, i hope there won't be, but it's possible, it's a war, anything can happen here, so the chances that we're going to get one or the other there, some more or less i will faint there. positions, they will be simply illusory, but in any case, i, i have a huge doubt that we will receive a proposal to join nato in one form or another, it seems unlikely today, and what is a faint proposal? a conscious offer is anything that contains the phrase invite to, then it can already be covered with a million different euphemisms, different conditions, different cautions, but... if it happens at least like this, it will be a significant step forward, theoretically it is

possible , well, it is clear that it is very difficult to be in modern life, it's hard to predict, but today, on a hundred percent scale, i would estimate such a probability to be no more than 5%, but it is 5%, in principle, if we talk about the euro-atlantic integration of ukraine as a guarantee of security. under what conditions can she then take it at all? and she can't really take it, look, there are all these stories, well, the fact that the process of signing these agreements is taking place, it's very correct security so-called so-called security, why? because that's what gestures are now of goodwill, it turns into a bureaucratic language, into the language of documents , which implies some kind of burden, some... commitments, that is, we already have the right to demand, conditionally speaking, now we just

thank you, because our partners can give us to provide assistance, or not to provide, they have no obligations to us, now certain obligations appear, this allows them to be expanded, deepened, increased, that is, it is already turning into a process, not chaos, even there sometimes productive chaos, but still chaos, for a certain process, which involves persistence, planning... obligations, etc., but to call it security guarantees is absolutely ridiculous, they even avoid this phrase, they talk about security proposals, security, that they have a whole scale, a whole gradation, etc. there are different terms that, that is, these are certain promises, certain obligations that they undertake, but it is impossible to call it security guarantees, it is not the only security guarantee, well, to a certain extent, i do... at least there is

a fifth article of nato, and now they hesitate, although in reality, well, i might say something controversial there, i think that in reality, if our partners had enough audacity, and perhaps wisdom, to invite ukraine to the north atlantic bloc, nothing tragic would have happened, on the contrary, it would have strengthened to a certain extent here are the relations in nato, because now there are countries from... the east, they are afraid that if, god forbid, they are already talking about it out loud, if ukraine joins, we will be next, and there will be no fifth article but i am sure that there will be a fifth article applied, if ukraine appears there in any form, it is for them, if not a guarantee, but an increase in the probability that nato, if it is ready to defend ukraine in theory, will protect us for sure, therefore, in principle, for that in the bloc itself, in the alliance itself, relations have strengthened, in fact. it would be useful, i think, to invite ukraine in one way or another, but this is high-level politics

, and i cannot predict it with my modest knowledge and capabilities. in principle, if we talk about the situation, safety is like this in this case, we will be forced to quote viktor orban, as i said, who says that ukraine should simply be between the west and russia and remain as such a buffer zone, which is how we were, let me remind you, we were. but potentially it was still a threat and a nato block, which was constantly, inexorably, not quickly, not slowly, but still expanding, and actually history proved that this does not lead to anything, that this buffer zone means only that this territory, this buffer zone, is doomed to aggression and occupation, at least partial, so this is a road to nowhere, and if we put orban there, physio

there and other characters of this kind in brackets, then i think that any person from head to toe in the west, in the collective, which i say again, does not exist, but still there are some general principles , she understands that this buffer zone does not give anything, in fact, i will remind you, once again, who does not know that in principle nato is not very good, well, the fact that finland and sweden did not want to be nato members with objective reasons, but there were also subjective ones, that it was nato, when the soil was completely covered, they were not interested in finland itself being a member of... the alliance, they were interested in the fact that there was a buffer for russia in the north, they needed this buffer, but life shows that i will remind, again, for those who who or where i turn to those, i am interested, not one of them announced their neutrality,

it saved them from occupation during. from the second world war, that is, well, we need ointments, and we need to have, we need to have reliable, reliable, reliable armed forces in the rear, which will deter, that is, options, criticized nato, for weakness, for sterility, for whatever, there is no other system of collective security, and there is no other option than to ukrainianize ukraine, and ukraine has no way to become one. a member of nato, sorry, in terms of time and price , and in terms of settlement, an important issue, if it does not happen, is the end of the war, a country that will control its entire territory, is such a pred possible, maybe, maybe, well, i will remind you, without

giving up its territories, it became a member of the political bloc. i will remind you that mutual claims against each other and greece, at least, coexisted in the nato bloc. cyprus, i will remind when at one time he was considering such a possibility, there was such a story, it was in the 90s, he was considering the possibility or future of the division of cyprus into...

interests, such a thing could hardly be heard, i think that there is another nuance here that in our , and our polish partners, and we ourselves to counteract the russian influence on the poles, the fact that the poles are tired, that the poles have their own nuances, and they are, let's say, tired of the war and, as

the politician wrote, a little tired of the ukrainians, this too... unfortunately, it is clear, but there are also subjective factors, so what about the russians tried, used, and maybe we even the opportunities, well, probably not to the end , we resisted it as much as we could, this, i don’t know to what extent, but that’s the way it is , a lot depends on the diplomats, a lot depends on our military , and indeed on... the ridges they are dragging this war, successes will change the situation, it will influence, well, for many , they even got into the north, for those who are in the rear and on measures.

in the 22nd year, well, unfortunately, not anymore, well, unless something incredible, dramatic, changes the situation completely, the war is complicated, a difficult story, to speak, this fatigue of influence, it is necessary, i do not know how much information to have, and how exactly in order to at least with some forecasts, whether it will influence so deeply, well, it is very difficult to say, more critical west to ukrainian. leadership in this situation, the west as an institution, the european union before the negotiations, we have seen all these stories with remarks about the non-admission of opposition mps to

international forums, it is already out loud , it is said in the resolutions of the european parliament, that was not the case either, they tried to turn a blind eye to similar trends since yesterday, i think that there will be no significant change, i think that certain things will be, if you like, even forgiven, and for two reasons: first, because there is still the awareness that the country is at war , and even if they don’t like the actions of the authorities or are in favor of the government in the broadest sense of the word, the president and the leaders there, there will still be some kind of, let’s say, concession to the fact that the country is waging a war, and it is difficult there are certain things, although even this will be attacks, the friend, well, there is moment... you know, remorse, not everyone has, but there is, well, we don't, no, not completely, we don't help 100%, even where we could, can we in that sense demand from them

100% of that , what we want, and there is a third point, which is not spoken about aloud, but it also exists, and on the one hand, the european union cannot but provide ukraine with additional opportunities for european integration, for advancement into the eu, on the other hand, the european union ... well , for now, he doesn't really see ukraine for a million reasons, the first of which is the war, in the european world union, and if ukraine does not fully comply with certain norms, practices, requirements, standards and criteria there, it may suit them, because it naturally slows down this path, so unfortunately, such and such a circumstance can also be, well that is, in fact, we are talking about long-term processes in all situations, these are long-term. the process is so complicated, by the way, it can accelerate if there are certain changes, including in the course of events, now they are difficult,

let's say, to predict, difficult to see, but they can be, both in the negative direction and in on the positive side, and there can be black or white swans even where we don't expect them, there are things that are incredibly predictable, if we close our eyes now and go back two years, there are so many things that have happened that we.. . could not predict both the negative and the positive forward from the 22nd year, and before that, you , too, well, just even in these two years , an incredible number of things happened, they seem obvious and even commonplace to us now, but in times like european integration , let's say yes, i don't know f-16 or there discussion of the contingent on the territory of ukraine, these are incredible things, even for the 23rd year, or anything else. there, for example, sweden and finland in nato, this is also an incredible thing, and many, many, many other things, so everything can change, and what is politics, and what is

war, it is a combination of factors, and some factors cannot be calculated, and things that at first glance are not related to each other can collectively affect the situation, so if there are favorable circumstances, then our path to european integration is certain, which in my opinion view, well, it is irreversible, it... can accelerate, and what we are told as 2030 as the nearest date, it may actually be closer, and it may be longer, if the situation is unfavorable, because once again i say, there are a lot of factors, a lot of problems, and in fact this year will be, well , if not decisive for us, then, well, probably the most difficult for today, it will be, well, in my opinion, even more difficult than the 22nd year, from the political point of view whether from a military point of view, a political point of view, from the point of view, just this year there were a huge number of circumstances, which are negative for us so far, but this does not mean that we should wrap ourselves in a white blanket and head for the cemeteries,

it means... that we should readjust our efforts and give up some things, focus on some things. thank you, mr. sergey. serhii rakhmanin, people's deputy of ukraine, member of the verkhovna rada's committee on national security, defense and intelligence, was on our air, it remains only to understand, you know, whether history will speed up after two years of war, or slow down, it is always unknown, but we, by the way, may see it in the 24th year, we will see how the topic changes, hope. thank you for this conversation, thank you, dear viewers , who were on the air with us in the politclub program, conducted for you by vitaly portnikov, i wish you all the best, victory and peace to all of you, and stay with espresso, good luck, there are discounts on ziplor 10% in pharmacies plantain,

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i'm glad you see what's important in kyiv, today you spoke at a conference dedicated to the integration of ukraine into the eu. what is the main message you brought to the ukrainian capital? i brought one simple main message. today, when it comes to the large and medium-sized countries of the european union, poland is the only country that says one hundred percent: yes, should the european union be opened for ukraine? yes, it is necessary to start negotiations quickly, it is beneficial for the european union, for our security, for both ukraine and poland. i said that of course, whenever there is an enlargement of the european union.