russia will break through, the next months can be extremely difficult. how powerfully can the enemy try to develop its offensive actions after avdiivka. this is how we understand that offensive actions are manpower resources, technical resources, and logistical resources of overall coordination at the front. how do you see the plan of the russian general staff now? of course, russia's main goal is to wear down ukraine and... achieve and break through . putin perceives the west as weak at the moment, which gives him a favorable opportunity to launch a strong attack. it is obvious that if the party does not have enough ammunition and manpower, it becomes vulnerable to attacks as its weakness is exploited by the enemy. on the ukrainian side, we did not help ourselves by holding our position for so long, especially in places like avdiivka. this is the solution. it cost us dearly in terms of

resources that could be better used in more strategically prepared positions along the straight line. obtaining such a surrounded position as an avdiivka requires much more forces and means than the defense of a straight line. russia will undoubtedly continue to press and use all available resources, especially in view of the upcoming elections in moscow, where putin needs. to demonstrate success not only in one city but also across the country to confirm your entire battle plan. so this is a critical moment, both for ukraine and for russia. now we see that the front line is extremely powerfully activated, yes, this is the kupinsky direction, this is donetsk region and this is the south, various not very pleasant surprises can await the south as well, if we talk about the offensive momentum of the enemy on those three are there any directions already? what direction

can the enemy use or try to make his strategic offensive? difficult to predict for two reasons: first, it will depend on their success. remember that russian doctrine is about securing success, so their strategy will most likely be to assess which of the areas they press forward will be the most vulnerable. they not only attack, but also scout for weak points. whichever area the russians find the weakest, they will strengthen it with additional ammunition and manpower, to maintain pressure and possibly break through the defensive line. there is already an understanding or a sense of where the enemy will try to concentrate his resources. kupyansk or the south? again, it's hard to be definitive at this point. while

we have access to intelligence on russia's actions, it is important to recognize that the ukrainian side ultimately determines the direction of the russian attack. if ukrainian forces hold their ground, russia can continue its current strategy. however, if any part of the ukrainian defense will begin to crack, such as the situation in avdiivka, russia will most likely concentrate its efforts there. now. it is too early to say whether russia will increase its attacks in a specific area, significant pressure is observed in many regions, in particular in the south near mariupol and on the western front near avdiivka. it may take another two weeks or so to assess how effectively ukrainian defenses are holding up in these areas before we can determine where russia will concentrate its efforts. it is important to recognize that predicting russia's actions is difficult until. until it determines the areas of its

success against ukraine on which it will focus its strategy. in the confrontation with russia, during a full-scale war, we understand that non-symmetric actions are also important. undoubtedly, the first priority target of strategic importance is the crimean bridge, its destruction would disrupt the transport connection with the crimea, forcing russia to surrender. by sea or land, which creates logistical problems. in addition, any delays due to damage to railway bridges are even greater will complicate the movement of russians. although asymmetric actions can be effective, especially for disrupting enemy operations. i am skeptical of their direct impact on the front line against russia's full resources and capabilities. asymmetric actions often require more missiles. range and more

maritime drones, which may be difficult to access. asymmetric actions only really have power when they are directly related to operations on the... front line, simply targeting the rear may not have the desired effect on the front unless they will be executed with strategic ingenuity. the example of world war ii illustrates the strategic value of disabling key industrial facilities such as power plants, german dams, and ball bearing factories, as they are essential to enemy equipment and mobility. today is a blast. production of electronic chips could similarly limit enemy capabilities, but russia's access to these components abroad complicates such an approach. sanctions play a crucial role in containment combat capabilities of russia, targeting key

supplies such as artillery ammunition. after all, well-trained personnel and mastery of the basic capabilities of artillery and drones remain indispensable. components of our defense strategy. these fundamentals, combined with innovative approaches , are necessary to effectively counter russian military power. i don't know, hundreds of russian soldiers die every day, russian aircraft are regularly shot down, but there is a feeling that they are beginning to regroup, and some evidence of this is change in the military districts of the russian federation. they are rapidly learning , adapting and developing their warfighting strategies at a pace that outpaces the pace of the ukrainian general staff, their effectiveness in implementing these changes is not in doubt, however, as i have emphasized before, ukraine must find a way

to outwit the russians strategically, creating the uncertainty and destruction of their body positions proved an effective way of forcing them to retreat, as it did... even well-trained troops fled, faced with such a situation, and they just got on their bikes and rode away. when the russians consciously outflank them, they become vulnerable and are more likely to attack. the danger is that the russians may face us head-on in a conventional soviet-style battle. in such scenarios , the russians' numerical superiority, larger ammunition reserves, and overall technological advantage make them stronger than. ukraine, therefore it is extremely important to review our approach to this conflict and consider alternative ones strategy, continuing to confront russia using the same tactics it is using against us will only lead to further retreats on our part. it is important to think innovatively and use tactics

that focus on vulnerable places for russia. new military districts. i don't think there is a clear logic behind it, i need time to study and... understand the implications of some of the russian changes, it looks like they are trying to innovate and wage war on a new level, but their exact intentions are still unclear are not clear what will the spring-summer campaign be like, as you see it, if you look at the situation from a strategic overview, or do you think the enemy may dare to open additional areas of the front, in particular in belarus. it is unknown, no one fully... understands the situation due to various current factors, general tsirsky and his new team aim to change the approach to the conduct of hostilities, which is the first variable, if they succeed, it could lead to a change in the dynamics of the conflict, however, without such changes, there is a risk

of either an impasse or further impasses territorial losses for ukraine. the second variable is that a proper training system for the ukrainian military will be created, as it currently does not exist. improved training can significantly increase the quality of ukrainian troops and their effectiveness in combat. the third change concerns support from europe and the us, particularly financial aid. if congress appropriates the funds, ukrainian forces will have access to more ammunition and resources, which will improve their combat capabilities. the fourth variable is belarus. for now, it remains independent, the audacity to even describe it that way. elections will be held this year and we do not know what can change in lukashenka's mind, of course we know that he will be re-elected, because there will be no elections as such, there this process is honed on the model of russia, he will simply become the president, gaining 147%

votes, no matter how ridiculous it sounds, but we do not know whether after re-election he will continue to run on his hind legs in front of putin, or will still act according to his will and in this case from the north, as there will no longer be such a threat, you have to look at each of these variables and test them, and certainly society has to ask. changes will take place in the army, because it makes no sense to change all the commanders and appoint new ones. if nothing changes after the arrival of the new commanders, if they continue to do the same, then perhaps it was not worth doing such a rotation, because the desired result will not be achieved, so the event will now focus on whether there are positive dynamics after the arrival of the new command in the direction of the western way of driving. hostilities and the western way of training soldiers, and not the continuation of the consequences of the soviet

legacy. a couple of days ago, an extremely important summit was held in the elysée palace in paris, president macron gathered people and promised, so to speak, that military support will increase, so on the one hand, this is an extremely good signal, although we very often divide all promises in half, president macron looks worried and... maybe he's hesitating, yes, because the war on the european continent has every prospect of getting involved sooner or later, but one or the other member of nato, and accordingly, the europeans will have to do something, not just promise taurus missiles, which then they will not give. first, let's clarify that there is nothing particularly new in this situation, it's just another step forward along the same trajectory. macron's recognition of a threat to europe is more a political maneuver aimed at strengthening his own image against

the background of scholz and influence in europe than a real concern about ukraine. any predictions, new actions or support from france could be in quotation marks provided a few months ago, which emphasizes the political nature of his statements. it is worth noting that french aid often falls short of expectations, and this trend should temper any hype about further promises. while some northern european countries, such as estonia, finland and poland, are taking tangible steps to address the situation, many other european countries are far from realizing the full extent of the threat they would face without american support. macron's statements lack the necessary force and energy to pro'. real commitment, if he was really serious about it we would have seen french

troops deployed on ukrainian soil long ago, but his rhetoric shows that he is more talk than action, serious countries prefer action over talk, while the approach macron seems to be built on rhetoric rather than real effort. regarding the united nations, it is important to recognize its limited effectiveness and influence. the un today is just a bazaar behind which there is as much energy as any network supermarkets in europe. unfortunately, these are the same words without action. similarly, the european union has not fully realized the urgency of the situation and has not resorted to decisive measures. thus, despite the rhetoric and debate, there is little to indicate substantive change or meaningful action. the lack of concrete steps, such as the deployment of troops in ukraine, shows

that the current situation is characterized more by talk than by real transformations. thank you very much for this extremely important conversation in our dramatic time. mr. colonel, i want to remind our tv viewers, that now on espresso was retired british army colonel glen grant, a military expert. events, events that are happening right now and affect our lives, of course, the news feed reports about them, but it is not enough to know what is happening, it is necessary to understand. antin borkovskii and invited experts soberly evaluate events, analyze them, modeling our future, every saturday at 1:10 p.m. with a repeat on sunday. studio event with anton borkovsky at espresso.

now, a former figure of the russian opposition in exile will work on the air of the tv channel member of the state duma, cult video blogger mark feigin. glory to ukraine, mark, i congratulate you. glory to the heroes, everyone is glad to welcome the audience. well, the population of the russian federation, i think, was waiting for its führer in order to analyze, so to speak, new guidelines, he started, so to speak, about fishing, you know, about... painting the grass, about new heat lines, about some, i don't know, country cooperatives, about anything, but not about the key, the number of corpses, that is, at least a quarter of a million russian soldiers who died in ukrainian chernozems, he is not afraid in principle, that is, the system has entered into some kind of, you know, cannibalistic stability, you

know, there were probably several versions of this report, including or not. some hot points, especially about the war in ukraine and some issues related to the international agenda. everyone was waiting for something to be said in the context of transnistria. there were some reasons for this, because the kremlin was deliberately fomenting such a situation. this is not the first time that expectations are deceived in a good or bad sense, it's like someone else. and it looked like an ordinary pre-election speech, on the eve of the so-called elections of the 17th century, airports, horticulture and so on, that is, in this sense, they went for a softer version, what was the reason for this, it is difficult to say. it seems to me that they decided

not to make the topic of the war central, not to connect it with this, to quietly pass two and a half weeks. what is left until the formal x-day, i.e. the vote for the führer, which is clear that will be replaced, no matter how they vote, the result of 70% turnout will be announced and 80% of putin's support, so they decided not to bother and decided to go through this moment in a purely bureaucratic manner, although someone will say, why was it necessary to schedule this speech on february 29? leap day, which happens once every four years, is a very symbolic date for this , and we know that the month of february is so important for putin, because he killed nemtsov in february, he killed navalny in february, he started a war with ukraine in february, that is, he could already hold it on march 1 or 2, that is, the date was chosen, who believes in numerology, maybe not

coincidentally, we assume, but with all that limited purely by bureaucrats. this is such a small relief of steam, because in general putin is convinced that everything is going more or less well, not perfectly, but more or less well. and echelons in refrigerators of russian soldiers, it is somehow not baked, that is, we do not see, in principle , any social feedback. well, of course, yes, that is why he does not feel the threat and danger from this factor of the costs of war, that is, a significant amount. from dead servicemen, losses of personnel. does not occur, this is not feedback. he himself will not pedal this thread, or in any way address or restrain it. if the people are not indignant, then in principle everything goes more or less normally. judge for yourself, on the second anniversary of the war, zelensky speaks and talks about

31,000 dead ukrainian soldiers, and multiple times, at least five times as many... dead russians, i think the ratio is correct. some argue whether this number is accurate or not, but the ratio is quite real. moreover, western sources paint the same picture. and what about the losses they talked about ukrainian sources? here is one single number of losses announced by shoigu in september 2022: 5,900 losses. after that, none. not a single number is not completely accidental, that is, the topic of losses was called, or is it accidental, in my opinion, it was removed from the agenda, it is tightly pressed that... it did not sound in any way. look, some z-blogger shot himself recently, as always an idiot, such a bearded guy from the dpr with the callsign moroz or

morse. to be honest, i don't follow him. and why did he shoot himself? because they planted theirs because he said that avdiivka is nonsense consumption of 16 thousand lives. he repeated the figure that sounded from american sources regarding the official losses, that avdiyivka is a cemetery of the mobilized and that's all. he was proven, he hanged himself, i think that lubyanka's hand also played some role there, maybe not directly, but one way or another, that this morse or frost was rinsed by solov'ov himself, accordingly, this is a direct method, a direct installation, what about we do not speak of loss, there is no loss at all, it is hidden somewhere, but this topic should not be mainstream in any case, in any form, neither in bad nor in good, you also know, judge for yourself, why don't they put up monuments to heroes in some cities? i know information from russia, they bury quietly, without fanfare, they quietly put it, closed it, buried it

, no fanfare, no tv shows , we bury heroes, here we saw in ukraine when hearses drive, military funerals go, people gather, stand along the road , we saw it, that is, farewell is a big memorial day, it is a very significant event for the city, small towns of ukraine, because... people understand that young people died for sovereignty, for the existence of ukraine. russia has none of this. in short, he says in his report that the new elites and the veterans are who? prisoners whom they sent and they did not return. who are these veterans, who is this elite? you see, that's the difference. if this topic had arisen in russia, and it would have been necessary to respond to it, then of course they would have done something somehow. if the people themselves do not demand answers. for these two-year losses, it is not yet known how many will die, so why should he raise this topic himself? many westerners analysts talked about the fact that he is preparing

one or the other for himself, i don't know if there are demonstrative or symbolic moments before the moment of reassignment, but no, we see that the spring-summer campaign is seriously, seriously heating up, i think so, there are reasons for this , why else, of course, it is important for putin to demonstrate military successes, and... but all this is happening against the background of this disorder and wavering among ukraine's allies, in particular in the united states. we see, as we predicted from last year, that the election campaign of november 2024 in the usa is not only will affect the unity of the ranks, consistency, continuity of aid to ukraine. the allies assumed these obligations themselves, and not because ukraine bargained for something. they took these commitments themselves, they themselves...

the answer is that you can't do that here, if you are an international politician who didn't say anything, then do it, and what will the other allies think, they are already thinking when after the speech. europeans, look how cheered up that trump, who will soon be nominated, at least from the republican party as the main candidate, but we are not we know what will happen in november, maybe he will win the elections, he says such things that really embarrass european allies, it turns out that the usa is acting as a guarantor, defender of the main western power, leader of the free world, it is interesting, if it is really so, then... it will probably have a strong impact not only on ukraine, but also on european and other allies around the world. if they can't agree in congress to provide

funds, i emphasize this meager amount of funds, compared to what is spent on other programs in the united states, then this shows weakness, and not about the strength of this main guarantor, the main ally of ukraine, as well as the main country of nato. therefore, against this background, putin has a sense of urgency, which he hides somewhere, and somewhere not, of course, they think that the moment is favorable for some kind of attack along a wide front, or in certain parts of it, in order to achieve positional success, while all that, what is happening in the usa will not end, it will be almost 8 months until november, during this time a lot will happen, probably the kremlin leadership connects its plans, military plans with this situation. mark, why was it? to clean up navalny, the month of february, symbolism, but anyway, well, the person was, you know, beyond the urals, constantly.

was she sitting or kept in isolation and so on and so on, that is, here it went, i tend to believe the version that i myself expressed before it was expressed by fcb maria povchikh, this is such an important figure within the system of navalny's team, she stated that she was preparing some kind of exchange, even if it was not about navalny, a decision had already been reached, because you know, exchange is a thing, i myself took an indirect part in the exchange of ukrainian political prisoners, i know all this, agreed, did not fulfill , postponed, that is, there are many factors that influence, even random, not that big political ones, but i believe that the west tried to exchange navalny, tried to get navalny out of the russian prison, why putin him killed, first of all, he kills everyone.

they tried to kill navalny in 2020, when they poisoned him as a rookie. in revenge, they killed prigozhin, they killed many other people. why don't they kill navalny in advance? in prison, he would not be able to have influence, but if he were free in europe or america, someone could vouch for him, what his biography was and what challenge he would throw to the kremlin. this is not a question of fear, it is a question of how they see the solution to the problem, they see all problems as nails that need to be driven in with a hammer, and they have no other vision. most of all, they are not afraid of the consequences, before they were somehow afraid, circling, but now they conducted the elections the way they did, even their own candidate nadezhdin, who was nominated, accepted and not allowed to participate in the elections, although he was completely

controlled... they even in this question let them go, they decided to play it safe, so why did n't they play it safe when it came to the main opponent of the kremlin, which navalny was. navalny really was an anti-system politician. we all understood with our minds that they did not live him , they puffed up a lot over him. but they released khodorkovsky at one time, and khodorkovsky plus or minus sat quietly. in the fact that it is quiet, because khodorkovsky was released after all , at a different time, the regime was different. now we are dealing with an almost completed totalitarian system, i emphasize totalitarian. i remind you at the end of 2013, when khodorkovsky was formally amnestied, i don't remember exactly , i think that was the question. why it was done, because it was done at a time

when something was needed in moscow. at that time , putin's personalist regime fought for some relations with europe, allies, the moment was the olympics, even then authoritarian, partners. now after the war, after half a million dead there in ukraine, what is the point of portraying something? i can well imagine the conversation of patrushev, who is the main protagonist of all these cruel measures. and what should we be afraid of? and so are war criminals, but by killing a man, we solved the problem, prevented riots during the elections, we removed part of the headache, we now act like this, we are now satraps, thieves, why should we depict something, and this shows that they used to depict with... one

death of navalny turns into an ordinary single manifestation against the background of the statistics of the terrible war in ukraine, which is not yet over, this page is not closed, if they killed half a million, how many more will they kill in the next two years? that's what it's about, so it seems to me that experiencing this degree is just right reflection became less, that's all. well, but there must be an appropriate answer, so we understand that in a couple of weeks the procedure of putin's self-appointment to the position he illegitimately occupies will take place, and on the other hand, the issue of recognition, so putin will self-appoint, you understand, with the addition of the murdered navalny

to... do you understand her and what is she hiding?