united by football, stronger together. we continue the politclub program on the espresso tv channel. and let's move on to the conversation with the russian oppositionist, former deputy of the state duma of the russian federation, ilya ponomerev. congratulations. mr. ilya. good evening. well, the main event of this week, and not only of the russian scale, is the funeral of alexei navalny. still, i got the impression that... the authorities were more afraid of society than they should have been afraid of some kind of destabilization, right? no, of course, i agree 100%, they tried to do everything possible, but i believe that they had a certain agreement with the fbk, well, that is, when they handed over the body of alexius, at the same time, the fbk called to come to the pre-election polling stations. in order to hold

a mourning rally, as they said that the main mourning rally is a march to the elections on march 17, well, i think, of course, this is actually help for the putin regime, because the only thing they need in these elections is a turnout , and actually i think it's kind of a deal, but on the other hand, purely geographically, they are they chose a church located in the marijan district, well, it is very far from the center of the capital, and the cemetery, it is located in brateevo, it is south of marijan, that is, in the opposite direction from... the city center, well,

that is, all such fuses the power did well, in principle, what do you think, there are enough people in terms of the level of repression and fear that currently prevails in russian society, or could there have been more, considering the size of moscow, well, look, there is such a a project called a white brush in russian. uh and he counts the people who comes to any events there, uh, they counted 16,500 people on friday, uh, but it was about the same on saturday, because not everyone could get to the cemetery on friday , well , compared to the protests on bolosnya... 2011-12, it is

of course smaller, if compared with the recent rallies that took place after the beginning of the large-scale invasion, and this is so significantly more, well, that is, i think that it is such a draw, but after all, there is no point in participating in any of these demonstrations, they... do not lead to anything, they only create danger for those people who join them, because there are cameras, everyone is recorded, and after that they are all there for the special services, but i believe that when the moment comes , when there will be armed people in moscow, on the side of the revolutionary movement, then i believe that there will be many more people, well

, it seems to me that people did not really prefer any kind of protest, when they gathered for the funeral, they precisely gathered for funeral, it was visible throughout the mood, just come and pay respect and move on. no, well, of course , well, but all the same it is perceived as such a protest event, because everyone feels, because of the danger, and there were many warnings that they are installing there specifically. cameras so that all faces can be recognized and recorded there. and how do you explain that none of the well-known public figures who are still in moscow, well, with the exception of nadezhdina, yes, did not come to this funeral at all, well, purely, i would say, symbolically, we saw an amazing photo, even for i'm amazing, i'll tell you honestly, hryhoriy yavlinskoho, who at that very hour was saying goodbye to the former head. of the council

of ministers of the soviet union by mykola reshkov in the cathedral of christ the savior and i saw comments on social networks that justified avlinsky said: well, what do you want, he went to an acquaintance, not to an acquaintance, i was... incredibly surprised by all this, well yevlinsky simply demonstrated that he is scum, and this person should be completely written off, and there were certain people who did not go on friday, er, there, for example, venediktov, he did not go on friday, he left on saturday, i believe that from the point of view of the relationship there with oleksii, they divined, and in... well, his presence on friday could be perceived ambiguously, but he he came after, well, on friday he was there is roizman, but people are so scared, and those people who were capable of something there, no, in

russia, even yulia, the wife could not attend this funeral, well, i think that... and no one would advise her would go there, i understand that it was a matter of personal safety? well, from a formal point of view there is no criminal one there were no violations of the case against her, and from a formal point of view she could come to russia, but i think that it is likely that she would be detained there in one way or another, well, that was a huge danger, she would say. and why are they suddenly talking about yulia navalny as the leader of the opposition, as if her husband really was the leader of some united opposition in russia, where did such an idea come from, because i hear this from many foreign journalists there when i talk to some experts , they also ask the question all the time: will yulia navalny be able to replace her

oleksiy navalny, and she spoke before the european parliament, but i have a question, and where, you know, they compare with svitlana tykhanovskaya, but svitlana tykhanovskaya was a participant in real presidential elections. and probably really won this election? well, look, there is a certain legacy from alexey, and of course it will belong to someone, and yulia already had this idea in the 18th year that she would go to the presidential race instead of alexey, and alexey then... approved this idea, and he was against, well, i think, precisely because of not creating yourself competition, but now a lot of money has been invested in fbk by the same united states and by europeans, it is necessary

to preserve these investments, and it is necessary to somehow continue the work of this fund there, and here yulia is such a chancellor. that is, i believe that for the vast majority of oleksiy's supporters there, she will actually be the leader, but how many are there, well, there are probably 30% of generally opposition-minded citizens, whether she will be able to consolidate the other part of the opposition there, it 100% depends on her, well, even there i know her very well, but... i, for example, cannot say what her political views, political views and values ​​are, alexia, i knew very well, but i do not know anything about yulia, what kind of leader she will be in general, what plan she has there, if there is one at all , or he is not there, well, we

don’t know anything about it either, and now, well, the ball is in her court, if she offers something, well, we will negotiate and... i will be very happy if in the state of opposition with there will be a new powerful figure, but it's just too early to talk about it, but please tell me, in principle, to what extent russian society believes that the fight against corruption is such a main element of opposition to the government, no at all, well, that is, it is such a common evil, and i believe that... the majority of russians, if there is one, they are probably jealous of the corrupt person, and , and the other part wants to join it, because it's like part

of being in power, and it's a minority of society, if they really want to fight it, that is, it's a very loud thing. but i think it's the wrong way to change the system, uh, there's a request for protests opposition. new no, but i saw that he continues

to bully the west, but he, he wants to hang on until donald trump wins, and in terms of this race and continuing his power, he needs to talk about social events, and that's all that matters. he was a social subject, well, someone already calculated that he made promises there for more than a trillion rubles, and this is not accidental, for people, war is something they cannot influence, but their everyday life, that's what what bothers them, in this nuclear intimidation, which has already left is there any rational thought or is it just an attempt to respond as sharply as possible to the recent statements of the president

of the french republic emmanuel macron about the possibility of the presence of nato troops on the territory of ukraine, well nato countries, nato troops, let's be precise. i'm not sure that was the answer, i believe there is one but that part would be present in this message. he's trying to do the same thing as... he's been doing inside russian society, just don't join the fight, that's it stay away, it's my business, and i'll decide here, and if you try to get involved there, there will be very negative consequences for you, and this is intimidation, it's just that there... the french, the germans, where all others, simply to stand somewhere far from

the struggle that is ongoing in ukraine. if you assess putin's intentions in principle, you saw there a desire to continue the war, i would say, in a completely undefined segment in time. well, i am sure that from the point of view of ukraine, he would like to come to an agreement. well , he wants to agree on his own terms to keep the territories that he has already seized, and he wants the west to pressure ukraine so that she agrees to it, well, it is very unlikely now, but i believe that he is counting on the fact that when there is trump, then he. .. that’s exactly what he will do, and that’s why i believe that throughout the 24th year he will try to bite off

anything in the so-called dpr, well, more dpr , of course, in order to maximally expand the territory of the dpr to the borders of the donetsk region, and that’s just how he will wait, but the question here is what is behind the west. is now spreading a lot the correct opinion is that if there is a ceasefire in ukraine, then the baltic countries or poland will be next, and they are worried about it, their military and civilian politicians are starting to talk about it more and more, this is correct, and that is why such statements on macron, i believe that he also thinks that if there is trump, then there america

will withdraw from the struggle, and someone must intercept this flag of military leadership, and it will be some european country, well, not germany, but france, well, on the other hand, yes, but you see that macron's statement showed that a huge number of western leaders are horrified by the very idea, not even the military presence of military personnel to perform some technical tasks on ukrainian territory? well , of course, and even french society has a very negative attitude towards it, there was a sociological survey. which showed that 69 percent of the french, i believe, are against this idea, but here it is already a geopolitical competition, and macron for him is the last term in office, he is trying to do something to pull this blanket over france. in your

opinion, in principle, this competition is now in the west. as for ukraine, will it bring its positive or negative results for future assistance? no, i believe that everything will be fine this year, and the role of europe, european countries, will actually grow here, and this is very good, or you have to stand on both feet, and not rely solely on the united states. but i believe that the united states also, they receive this aid package, well , it just takes a certain amount of time there. the question is, what will we do if in fact, there will be a change of power in the united states, and here, of course, trump will try to put putin and

zelensky at the same table of change and put pressure on both of them from the very beginning. and here the question is, what will be the diplomatic position of ukraine, if zelenskyy says something like, well, okay, let putin return to those agreements that were echoed at the istanbul meeting, putin cannot do that, because he has already announced that the dnr, the lpr, there kherson and zaporizhzhia regions are his, that is, he... simply cannot return to this, and then, i believe that even trump, he will be on our side. thank you, mr. ilya, ilya ponomarov, russian oppositionist, former deputy of the state duma of the russian federation, we were in touch, we are now from russia, and we will move its problems to the middle east, we will talk with igor simivalos, director of the center for middle eastern studies, congratulations mr. igor, congratulations, mr.

congratulations, well, here we are talking in the evening before a possible armistice. between israel and hamas, but again, when just 5 hours ago we could have said that the truce could to be achieved, now i'm looking and i can't say anything about it with certainty, i don't know, like you, what is happening in the middle east in general, is there even a possibility of at least a pause in the war? yes, indeed, a few days ago it was possible to say that the parties came as close as possible to a truce, but now it seems that hamas wants more, and it is clearly not satisfied with the temporary cessation of war, well, he perfectly understands that after ramadan, the actual war continues with an attack on other

positions of hamas, since ramadan in any you... the fallout rather calls itself upon the suspension of the war, this will automatically and practically happen, if of course the israelis do not want to get serious problems in the west bank and in the arab world itself, then it is clear that the hamasites can bluff or can bargain, that is, they want get the best possible. to what extent can it be considered that the situation related to the middle east war now seems to be affecting american politics, because we see that president biden has a lot of problems with supporters among democrats precisely because the united states cannot stop this war. from the very beginning, when americans made the political

decisions to support israel the way they did, and statements were made. already then, among the representatives of the democratic forces, the left, the left part, there were serious differences with the administration, and as of now, these differences are getting bigger, but what is the recent case when a military man burned himself in front of the embassy, ​​protesting against the gas war, and this circumstance, this protest is shared by many, including the military in america. so, dissatisfaction with biden's politics is growing, he understands and tries to maneuver, and for example, the last decisions that were made by the american. the humanitarian landing that was carried out in the gas sector, when american planes dropped bombs, the gas sector, this is also a part, relatively speaking, of the changes that we are seeing, well, besides

all that, of course, one cannot fail to mention the statements of the american cleaners, regarding the settlement, regarding the sanctions that were introduced against those who commit violence against palestinians in the west bank and the like, that is, politics... tell me, mr. ihor, do you understand why the president of ukraine flew to saudi arabia before this balkan summit? well, i can only guess, as you understand, there is an official point, an official, official position, a physical point of view, that the key issue, that was the summit issue. handicap according to the peace formula, and the position of saudi arabia is very important, taking into account the weight of saudi arabia in the world in general, well, obviously, not only

obviously, i think that it was possible to talk about weapons that are in the warehouses of saudi arabia, and other gulf countries, we know that these countries are such powerful hubs for the transfer of soviet weapons. to african countries, maybe we are talking about some money, that is, about loans in order to provide ukraine with weapons, this is my yes, my suggestion, because it is obvious that later the conversations in albania were not only about albanian-ukrainian friendship. tell me, if we talk about the caucasus, do you think that armenia is real now? is he trying to make a u-turn from russia, or are these maneuvers for now? yes, this, this, this is a difficult question actually, because on the one hand we see that it is already more than manev, and there are too many drastic steps, too

many things that indicate that after all, armenia is starting to turn around , an important element of this reversal, of course, is the strategic alliance by france, which is strengthening and deepening, and most likely in the near future we can see, if not ... a physical presence of france in the south caucasus, then at least a serious, serious strengthening of france in this region, it hurts azerbaijan and turkey, and it is clear that france will only do it for the sake of it. well, but, well, after we have seen and heard macron, with all his recent speeches, which clearly indicate that france wants to seize the strategic initiative in the west. and such behavior in the south caucasus seems quite understandable and logical, considering the fact that in france there is a rather powerful derbet

community of spurs, and considering the interest that the french express that they would like to be present there, and in general, in view of the strategic interests of confronting russia. there were reports that the president of ukraine should visit both yerevan and baku, then information appeared that such a visit would not take place, precisely because he did not receive support from the azerbaijani side, what could be the problem and whether it was a reality at all, well, you know, i even commented on the possibility of zelenskyi for the azerbaijani press, and we were just discussing what this visit could not pose any problems for ukraine and the ukrainian-azerbaijani relations. and assumed that it was possible, well, the probability of that visit was discussed at a meeting between aliyev and vilenskyi, they met before

and, but it turns out that no, it turns out that after all, this visit was not agreed upon at that time, well, obviously, since a peace agreement has not yet been signed between iran and azerbaijan, that is, the formal countries are at war, so it is clear that azerbaijan... refused such a format, and you, or at least, were persistently, i would say, but do you admit that in principle azerbaijan did not want a trip to armenia as such in any case? and from the very beginning, the conversation was rather more obvious, because from the very beginning they said that if the visit will take place, that is, the probability of such a visit will take place. then this visit should also be in vienna, i.e. this format was considered from the very beginning, here in general the question is whether it is possible to solve

the problems of the caucasus without... with the participation of russia, the russians say all the time, and it was recently during the russian-chinese meeting , it was once again declared that the war in ukraine cannot be resolved without russian participation, well, in any case , there are russian troops on ukrainian territory, this is, in principle , an absolutely logical construction, because how do you resolve a war in russia with russia without russia, if russia is not going to end it, but the situation in azerbaijan and remenya is different, there is no such obvious presence there. of russia, formally russia is present there in azerbaijan and yerevan, and in armenia, and because russian fsb troops are on the border, there is a russian base in armenia, and russian troops are also arriving in karabash, that is, in essence, russia is present there as well, and the only one who can squeeze out of... under russia

is a country that, well, can challenge her, yes, this is france itself, because turkey, as we can see, is not incapable of this, it maneuvers, it prefers to negotiate with the russians, not to create problems, and the french can go for it, because at least they have there are no complex past interests and they have no such attachments. to moscow's interests, as in let's say ankara has it, so the only one who can do it is france, but azerbaijan is not very happy with the french role, you see that the french role always causes irritation on the side, from the very beginning he was not happy, that is, in general, this is not a matter of this day, it is a matter of, well, at least five or six years, and any attempt

by the french in some way... to demonstrate their interest, it exposed dimash from the side of turkey, yes, well and in this case azerbaijan, i.e. all this approximately, i.e. this the story is ancient, and if earlier it was not about armenia, but about greece, but also about cyprus, then armenia was added, and the relationship between france and turkey really remains quite complicated, but what now? what recep tayyip erdoğan wants to achieve, when he talks again about peace talks, about the fact that turkey can become a platform for these talks, he discusses it with vladimir putin, well, so as not to forget about him, well, elections are ahead, local elections are ahead, erdogan must remain a genius of diplomacy and important to the turkish people, that is, it is necessary for them, to be talked about, the press wrote about him, and he stayed. on the front pages

of world and turkish newspapers, then this is the same story as it was before, when they actively exploited the agreement and the istanbul negotiations, well, that is, you think that there is nothing real behind it , there are no real international opportunities, well, obviously no, i do not believe that there is anything more than just an attempt by the turks to once again raise their status. but turkey will defend azerbaijan if russia suddenly wants to destabilize situation in this country at some point? no, it won't, it won't, but they will include diplomatically, i.e. they won't use force, but diplomatically they will be futile, i.e. the hopes in baku that if they collide with moscow, they will come to their aid from turkey, are they useless? well, it's not 1918 100%. and tell me, in principle. it was believed that

turkey and russia could come to an understanding regarding syria, and even hoped for the normalization of the situation, at least there, now we can say that turkey can restore its relations with damascus, and that at least there will be a certain stabilization of the regional situation, that then the refugees will be able to return to syria from turkey, how realistic is this, well , so far it does not seem real, there is already a key issue in the fact that bashar assad wants to restore sovereignty. the number of people who moved to the north of syria, fleeing from bashar-assad, they will again find themselves in turetia.