well, it's not 1918 100%. and tell me, in principle, it was believed that turkey and russia could come to an understanding regarding syria, and they hoped for the normalization of the situation, at least there, now we can talk about the fact that turkey can restore its relations with damascus, and that at least there will be a certain stabilization of the regional situation, then the refugees will be able to return to syria from turkey, how realistic is this? well, so far it seems unrealistic, there is already a key flaw in the fact that bashar assad wants to restore sovereignty in this territory, turkey is categorically against it, and because it , well, first of all, does not believe besharusad and is quite fair, and wants that after he restores sovereignty, a huge number of people who moved to the north of syria, escaping from bashar-assad, they will end up in turkey again.

so it's cheaper for them to maintain that safe zone and control the northern areas of syria, with the expectation that eventually they will build these settlements there, resettle those syrians back into the country, thus creating a sanitary border for the kurds between turkey and syria, and accordingly, the parties will sooner or later come to... some kind of understanding, and so far i don't see any possibility for damascus to come to an agreement with the interrue, it doesn't bother you at all that such conflicts are long-lasting, like the syrian ones, they will stop altogether -who cares, that is, you and i are also briefly discussing this against the background of some other events related to the region, and by and large , hostilities continue there, people are dying, and there is bombing, if we open the middle eastern media, we will see that nothing it didn't end there, it's just right for me.

i said, from the point of view of the ukrainian war, it worries me all the time, well, you know, i can say a paradoxical thing, a lot of people from the syrian opposition, syrian, well , no, no, ah, not mujahideen, not islamists, but their own position , they are very seriously monitoring the events in ukraine, actively participating in helping ukraine, counting on the fact that in the future this may seriously affect the syrian conflict, and... and including that they count on the fact that ukraine can play a greater role and essential role in order to resolve the syrian conflict, given the fact that russia is present there, and accordingly russia is the enemy, the enemy of my enemy, my friend, and the russian presence there has decreased due to the war in ukraine, it can be said that the russians have already do not have the capabilities they had before, precisely because they simply do not have enough forces, and they have reduced their ground presence, yes, significantly, and all these positions. in that situation in the region, when he

can support syria there, he can support armenia, he can support hezbollah in lebanon and hamas, and thus, despite all their relations with moscow, many players still need the same tailcoat. when it comes to regulation in the caucasus, yes, without a doubt, and the french, by the way, also actively cooperated with iran, and everyone remembers very well that it was french firms that sat at a low start in the 15th year, when there was the nuclear agreement was signed, well , the nuclear agreement, the so-called nuclear deal, and the french companies were the first to come to negotiate the agreement, yes, without a doubt, the french in this... sense -

can be difficult partners for the americans, let's say, for them, their policies, yes, tough policies, ala trump, but without a doubt, the iranians, well, they remain a regional country, a large regional country in their interests, and of course, they rely on several pillars, that is, there is support for shiite organizations, where else in the middle east, and the creation of a safe, well, country. around iran, with which you can interact, look for external partners, well, now they are actively promoting cooperation with turkey, with russia and china, yes and, but they are trying to flirt with both turkey and france, well, in other words, well , you can even say that relations with the countries of the persian gulf have improved, and after years of crisis and serious aggravation, therefore... in

principle, the bags are more complicated, you know, political creatures than in principle it is customary to think about them. thank you, mr. igor, igor. simivalos, the director of the center for middle eastern studies, was with us in this program, we talked about the situation in the middle east, let me remind you that in fact today is the 739th day of russia's war against ukraine, we have already soon we will be there for a thousand days at some point, it is such a long war, but with that, which is also unexpected, i think for many today is the 149th day of the war in the middle east and no prospects. the end of this war also took a long time and we do not see it, i think you can draw a conclusion from our conversation with mr. igor, and thus we live in an era of long-term conflicts, if something starts, it does not end, and this is also a very important moment for evaluating this the situation in which we

find ourselves, we will now break for a few minutes, please stay with us and the people's deputy of ukraine, member of the committee of the verkhovna rada of ukraine on defense security and intelligence serhiy rakhmanin will come to our studio, we will talk with him about the whole current situation. the situation with its trends and problems, stay with us, tired of heavy and bulky saws, then the tv unboxed strong saw is for you, with it you can easily cut trees and bushes, it is so convenient to use for carpentry work, it is the perfect tool for your home or garden, and the price is only from uah 1,499 , including a reliable computer battery. call now and order, there is a possibility of free delivery, check with consultants, cut branches, cut timber, chop firewood, you can do all this in one movement with a strong saw, just take a look , how quickly it copes with even thick branches, once it is ready, and unlike standard saws,

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stronger together. we continue the political club program on the espresso tv channel and our guest is serhii rakhmanin, people's deputy of ukraine, member of the verkhovna rada committee on national security, defense and intelligence. greetings mr. serhiy. good evening. well, that's it. some time has already passed since the replacement of the commander-in-chief of the armed forces of ukraine, the president says that the new commander-in-chief has carte blanche on personnel changes that have actually already changed, if we can talk about changes in military planning and personnel policy. well, so far nothing has really changed significantly, and objectively speaking, it could not have changed. it is very difficult to radically change something in the conditions of sufficiently tough battles, but even what changes, it still ... actually affects the organization of the troops and to some extent even the morale of the troops, because in any system, when

with there is a new manager, then personnel changes begin accordingly, and syrskyi is not there with an exception, he began to do it quite actively, but it seems to me a bit early to talk about any significant changes, because if someone did not treat syrsky, the general staff and the new head, they now have a lot of current... work which, as far as i understand, are going to be changed in the near future, and such, well, let's say, certain steps in this direction are already being taken, this is, first of all, the organizational structure and decision-making structure, i will remind you that we have such structure, there is such an organ called kos, the command of the united forces, it should actually plan the operation, well, according to logic , the general staff should plan the campaigns ... to put it mildly, and kos should plan the operation, that's how it was conceived, that's how it was conceived, that's how it was implemented, but actually

kos from the beginning of a full-scale invasion , he was actually removed from the planning and implementation of the operation, the kos was something of an appendage, a fifth wheel, if you will, and his leader mr. nayev, i'm sorry, they actually invented some workload for him, for example, there to take care of the defense of the north etc., now as far as... i understand, syrsky still wants to return not completely, but still a significant part of kossuth to the management system, to the decision-making system, this is the first, second, musyrsky is actually going, well, at least there are such plans, and certain steps are being taken to somewhat optimize the structure of the armed forces. so far there are statements, so far there is some preliminary work there, whether it will translate into concrete things, we will see, but i will not say there, let's say optimization of the structure of the armed forces. defense forces in general with the armed forces, in particular, it can be, say, there a substitute for mobilization, by no means

, but it was theoretically possible to find a certain internal resource, because, let's say, the personnel and position structures that govern the armed forces, they were written in the old days, and in fact, in many ways, they do not correspond to today's realities and today's requirements, these are the two things that they talk about officially and unofficially, i mean the chapters. koma and the new chief of the general staff, and what will happen, well, in the near future, it will already be clear, what happened at tendrivskaya kosi with all ukrainian special forces, we only know about the death of people, but we don't really understand the situation itself, do you understand the situation itself? not to the end , i don’t have reliable information, but there are certain details, official, unofficial, but we can’t talk about, let’s say, definitely with... a hundred percent guarantee, what happened there, well , what can already be stated today, it’s

unfortunate operation, but which, unfortunately, ended tragically for us, but to talk about the fact that it is this operation with all its tragedy, drama somehow affected the course of events, unfortunately or fortunately, no, but what now affects your opinion on the course of events at the front, to what extent can we say that after the capture of avdiyivka the situation stabilized, or can we still say so? it has not stabilized, there are certain hints that it may stabilize, it will depend on two factors, on how quickly and efficiently engineering and fortification structures will be made in the line of defense, which, unfortunately, were not made in time on many of the most dangerous directions in particular, in avdiiv, i.e. populated areas, which are fast enough, well, unnaturally fast, as for the last months. are occupied by the russians, although at the cost of heavy losses, this is precisely the result of the fact that behind avdiivka, in fact

, there are no such strong structures as were around avdiivka, which were built over many years and could hold off the enemy for enough days. and now, in fact, those units, military units, formations that restrain the enemy in this direction, they actually impose positional battles so that those who are further on the second line had... time to build certain fortifications, well, that is, we are talking about a complete set, a complete line, but it is quite difficult to do this in the conditions of direct battles. the second problem, besides of engineering and fortification structures is the maximum possible and most effective use of the reserve in the accumulation, the reserve is quite difficult due to the fact that the percentage of mobilization is, well, let's say so low, but considering the fact that there is still an absolutely obvious problem imposed on it, which is called a lack of ammunition, then this is another

complicates the situation, that is, if the defense lines in the most dangerous direction... will be created quickly enough and they will be strong enough, if it seems to create the necessary reserve in order to restrain the enemy, then in the near future the situation may stabilize, but for today, for now the enemy , unfortunately, has a tactical, in some areas even an operational initiative, about a strategic initiative, i don't remember which of the western commentators wrote a strategic initiative , there is definitely no strategic initiative there implies slightly different things, much greater depth. the advance is much faster and the infliction of much greater losses and the capture of much larger territories, but tactically and operationally in some directions, in particular on the bakhmudsky, avdiivsky, the enemy has an advantage, and is advancing faster than we would like. and we can say that now putin is doing what was expected of him in february 2022, that is, he is trying to seize

the east, to seize all of donetsk and luhansk, let's say, for a start. you know what the nuance is, the fact is that the basic task, well, that's it relatively speaking, the tasks that were set, as far as can be judged from the information that i have, these are the tasks that were set before the military, so the primary task was precisely the access to the administrative borders of the donetsk luhansk region, they existed both at the time of the invasion, and they did not change all this time, that is, this task, it is as it was, and it is, just the deadline is constantly changing, relatively speaking, the deadline by which the russian troops have to complete this task. simply during the fact that during actual hostilities the situation changed, appeared in additional military options, additional tasks, but no one removed this task , just now, well, conditionally speaking, there we will say, the complete occupation of the territory of luhansk region and the maximum advance to the west, that is, the occupation of most of the eastern

territory of kharkiv region and access to the administrative borders of donetsk region, he remains and they... once again pushed back these deadlines, that is, they never raised these issues before the military, well, they simply combined these issues, i will try to seize large territories in the north, it was such an effect of a stretched front, i'm not talking about the south, in fact in the north , well, at the beginning, they didn't plan at all that there would be resistance and they didn't plan that there would be active hostilities, that is, besides , from what i can judge, they predicted that there would be a small one in the east, but... it is possible for them to have a war, in the north, it will also be in the south, it will be a march, they were accumulating a sufficiently large amount of equipment, and not enough in fact, the number of personnel, and that is, in military personnel, well, relatively speaking, infantry there was inadequately less, that is , a huge amount of equipment was accumulated, everyone remembers this video, photos and indeed there

was a lot, quite a lot, and i understand that, in addition to everything else, well, first of all, technology provides mobility, and secondly ... it was still a psychological effect, but the personnel , i.e. the infantry, were not provided properly, but in the east, in the donetsk and luhansk regions, they predicted war, why, because, well, again, for no one it's not a secret, it wasn't a secret before, but now it's being talked about out loud, absolutely the majority of our military, almost all the most combat-capable brigades were either fully or partially located on the territory of what was called the oos, the operation of the joint forces, that is, on the territory of the donetsk and luhansk regions, they... knew perfectly well, and they understood that there would be hostilities, and they believed that they would be fleeting, but there would be hostilities, and the rest of them believed that because there were by and large not many military personnel there, there would be a missile air strike that would destroy the equipment, the control system of the system anti-aircraft defense, and the demoralized ukrainian troops in small numbers will simply flee and they will enter kyiv,

large cities will enter and there they will declare another government, but the war is like a war, it started in the east, and then the situation changed, and, accordingly, the situation changed and their behavior and tactics changed, they changed several times, starting with the nature of the use of troops and ending with the tasks that are set directly before the commanders. you understand why such a reaction and in the public, both here and in the west, the journal publications about the terms of the peace agreements of 2022, about which they wrote to me then, caused. it seems that everyone told everyone in exactly the same, i would say, amount that was reported now, simply because the documents appeared, i was surprised, to be honest, i did not see anything new there, first of all, maybe a part. people forgot about it, maybe some people did not know about it, there is nothing fundamentally new there, well, except that there are links to documents, but in fact after even officials said this

, well, the medina type, yes, the medina type, the arahamia type, for example, he partly highlighted the content of these negotiations and partly omitted it, but less so, nothing fundamentally new, from what was written about, sorry 22nd year, i didn't see why, well it's hard for me to say. i'm not a psychologist, this is more of a question for a psychologist, maybe it's just an effect of the fact that people are always looking for options to end the war, maybe, maybe, maybe it's fueled for some purpose, just like that the reaction, the emphasis on these things, i think that it has actually gone, here is our reaction, it is connected with the reaction of the west, the west, well , at least part of it, because the west is heterogeneous, the west, it cannot be identified there, relatively speaking, greece and germany, or, for example, france or poland. yes, and there was and still is a large part of politicians who probe the soil for, let's say, points of contact, for possible topics, for negotiations, and for them, a return to those

times is another attempt to impose a discussion once again , a discourse on possible negotiations. i i understand that now russia can consider even these conditions as very limited goals for itself, yes, i think so now, i think that putin is against the background of those local ones, but... after all, the successes for which the russians waited, they are now they have just such a winning mood, and they , relatively speaking, if we fantasize, i don't see any ground now for any negotiations, for any negotiations, but if we assume that now they have begun, i think that the conditions that the brosians put forward in these fantasy negotiations, they would be much tougher than the ones in istanbul, and why, because in istanbul, and before that in belarus, why, because on the one hand , then the russians were... well actually stunned by the resistance that they actually felt, yes they advanced and advanced quickly enough, and in all directions , but they met oper and they

suffered from the first days, that is, they lost in a day as much as they planned to spend for the whole company, and it is clear that they were then wavering, they were a little they are confused tried to take advantage of the advantage that they had, that is, this is a war without declaring war, the advantage that it... due to this, it really gave them a strategic initiative at that time, but there was resistance, their losses were huge from the first days , which they did not expect, they did not destroy our air defense and aviation, they did not destroy the management system, the government did not flee, and therefore, well, in general , the power, relatively speaking, under the government, i understand, not the cabinet of ministers, but there we will say governance, government officials from the president, starting with finishing all the high officials, mostly the majority, at least of them, and then they were ready for certain compromises, and well, to a certain extent, obviously for them ... that option seemed more or less unconscious, now i think they would have put forward even more ultimate demands, that is, we can actually state that

this very idea that some real negotiations can take place is not a forum, not a peace formula there with the participation of our allies there, people who share the idea of ​​territorial integrity, but real negotiations, where from one side moscow, on the other hand, kyiv, that all this just now looks absolutely unreal, that is , well, i... i can't even imagine such a format, nor the basis of anything. putin absolutely does not need these negotiations now, for once. two, putin does not think that he is ready to talk to ukraine in any way, he thinks that he should talk there with the united states, moreover. he does not hide it. i will not hide it, and preferably, after trump wins, in whose victory he is sure. and, moreover, even if i did not see any hints that in ukraine there are, well, among those people who approve. decision, people are ready for such negotiations for a million reasons: firstly, well, it is clear that any negotiations will mean, on the one hand, theoretically a respite for us, but much more, much more

frightening, it is a respite for the russians, and in that, that they will try to regain strength and resume the offensive, in my opinion, not a single conscious person in the world doubts it, except in ukraine. if we talk about what the actions of the russians can be in the ukrainian direction, they will try engage in internal destabilization, this is what officials say about the so-called maidan 3 plan, what is it? well, i don't have the information that , theoretically, maybe the security service or the intelligence committee, which was mentioned at the end, about its existence at all, maybe there is something there, i don't have such information, but i from my place, from my position, i do not really believe, well, at least in the way it is described. i don't really believe in the existence of such a plan, but when we talk about the details, what actually changed, what's new here, did the russians destabilize the situation in ukraine, so destabilized, well, all these years, in fact, well,

the last two. after a full-scale invasion they tried to use every opportunity, and are they using agents and useful idiots here , are they going to? they will use any loophole, any opportunity, what's new, i didn't understand when they tied it to the expiration of zelenskyi's term of office. yes, because in fact, let me remind you that according to the law, he does not have to compile their credentials , it is strange to me why it can be used in any way inside ukraine, because i will remind you that all polls show that the absolute majority of ukrainians, ukrainians do not believe that now is the time for elections, and trust the president, yes, that is, if someone does not treat him as an informer of power, as a supreme commander-in-chief, they trust him, in what way can this disturb, who can it?

to sort out and in general, how to organize the maidan, well, how is there a direct participant of the two maidans, it is impossible to organize a maidan , this has already been shown, it is possible to organize some kind of action that will be suppressed within, okay, not 15 minutes, two hours, let alone days, well , how can you organize anything at all in the conditions of martial law, so that it remains outside the zone of attention of the security forces , without political representation, both the maidans will essentially have a huge political representative, ok, let it be true, let there be some kind of secretive network, extensive, that is planning, so there is a disturbance that can theoretically lead to attempts to seize power, if the intelligence , counter-intelligence and special agencies have relevant information, they should quietly and quickly suppress all this, crush it and report to the president if necessary, but this reminds me of mario going to rob a bank, well, yes, ...

there will be three of us on the maidan, we know these people, if you know why they are not sitting, well, it looks a bit comical, i would say, you know, i would even say that i would say it was a water bottle, that's why i am so skeptical about it, once again i emphasize, at the same time i i am sure that the russians have destabilized and will always try to destabilize the situation, as in fact we are trying to destabilize the situation in russia to the extent of our much smaller resources, this is absolutely natural, we are enemies, in general, if we talk about the danger of destabilization, it is not provoked but... i have in mind, it is connected with some internal problems with people's moods, will there not be signs of war fatigue at a certain moment, the more people expect all the time that the war is about to end, we can see this in sociology, now the majority people believe that victory will be achieved in 2020 there in the 4th year, someone on the 25th, well, the 24th year will pass, the 25th, the 26th, who we will definitely...

will influence, it is already influencing, well, it was clear , well, even in the 22nd year , it was clear that if the war dragged on, and the war was, well, i don’t know, they tried to refrain from these forecasts, even those who understood, it was clear that this was a war for years, and sooner or later fatigue will set in late, and fatigue and physical and moral fatigue of those who directly perform combat tasks and those who too, to a different extent, much less, differently, but everyone gets tired, people get tired. who make decisions, people who fight get tired, people who wait for their brothers, husbands, sisters who fight get tired, everyone gets tired, it's absolutely natural, and shaking this fatigue of course also affects the threshold of this fatigue, it's hard to calculate, well there's probably no technique to do that that could affect, could affect some major collapse of the front line

on... in either direction, that could be a trigger that could work on, say, well, this can significantly worsen the general mood among military personnel and the rear, this can be, that is why i think that both the commander and the battalion, i hope that they still properly discuss all the issues that are within their competence there , they understand that it is a problem and they are all that depends on them. they do it so that this does not happen, this story is not necessarily, but theoretically, here is some kind of collapse, not just there, relatively speaking, the loss of another populated place, unfortunately, this will also happen, well , that is, we must prepare for the fact that in some for a certain time, before the front line stabilizes, the offensive rush, while the russians still have resources, it will take place, but during some serious breakthrough to the depth, which would be connected, let's say

, with... part of the territory or with the environment or with