which can work to, let's say, so significantly worsen the general mood among the military personnel and the rear, this can be, and that's why i think that both the headquarters and the pond, i hope that they will still properly discuss all the issues that are in their competence, they understand that this is a problem, and they all, everything that depends on them, do everything in their power to prevent this from happening, this... the story is not necessarily, but in theory, some kind of collapse, no just there, conditionally speaking, the loss of another inhabited point, unfortunately, this will also happen, that is, we must prepare for the fact that at some certain time, before the front line stabilizes, an offensive rush, while the russians still have resources, it will take place, but in some serious breakthrough to the depth, which would, well, be connected, let's say, with the capture of a large part of the territory, or with the environment or. the destruction of a large group

of ukrainian troops, this can have an effect, so everything must be done to prevent this from happening, which will be extremely difficult to do in the conditions, well let's put it this way, the high pace of mobilization is not enough, no matter what anyone says, and there is a significant lack of ammunition, this is also such a secret of the policeman, the problem will not be resolved in the near future, when they already say that they have already been found there, and the money has already been found there , they are already giving insinuations, well, i would be restrained in... positive assessments, i will say that huge efforts are being made, and absolutely different, in different directions, involving different forces, different structures, and this is being done, but not yet developed eats, well, let's say so, until it doesn't the story has been resolved with the restoration of a full-fledged, full-fledged package of military-technical assistance from the united states, and until the pace of setting up ammunition production in europe is accelerated, i emphasize, accelerated. now

it is happening very slowly, so any attempts to find ammunition in one place or another will be plugging holes, but it will not significantly solve the problem, the same applies to the domestic market, so certain efforts are being made to ensure that a certain nomenclature ammunition to produce, it is being made, and their number is gradually but increasing, but it is extremely sufficient for primarily objective reasons in order to meet the needs of the armed forces. because well a lack of ammunition is a lack of ammunition, even a fantastic number of drones will still not replace artillery ammunition on the battlefield, so far these are incomparable things. will the russians try to storm kyiv or odessa again? well, let's put it this way, come on, come on, if we're talking from a military point of view, at the moment, there are no hints that this is possible. why,

because in order to, for example , try to take odesa, well, to begin with, you need to take mykolaiv, and that is still a long way off, let me remind you that on the contrary, we, let ukraine mean the ukrainian soldiers, are even gaining positions on the eastern bank with heroic and incredible efforts dnipro, that is, in order to reach odesa, it is necessary to make a huge effort, in the north there are not yet enough forces to... to plan such an offensive, firstly, secondly, well, then the effect still worked surprise, despite what was said about it, it was difficult to imagine what it was will happen, now we are still ready for this , so there will be no such promotion, but throwing away huge resources, that is, the losses will be much greater, let’s call it that, but is it possible in theory, yes, first of all, there is a huge temptation to kyiv distance.

an outstretched hand if you come from belarus, right? and such a temptation, it remains, and it is clear that by capturing the capital, you actually win the war, well , at least putin thinks so, and i think that putin does not imagine a successful end to this war without conquering odessa, kharkov and kyiv, this is a fixed idea for him, he does not even hide it, in my opinion, that is , the risk remains and will remain as long as this war continues for... today , for now, it seems to me that there is no such threat, but it may arise tomorrow. the day after tomorrow, for now they are forced to spend reserves , resources in other directions, and even here there is a nuance, if only why military art is an art, more art than science, because no matter how you plan, you still have to live according to the laws of the genre, as an offensive is developing, it's like water, as long as there is room for you... it flows, and as long as there is an opportunity

to advance, then you will advance, even realizing that in principle you should stop, well, when they resist something serious enough. resistance, then they will stop, but as long as there is an opportunity to develop the offensive in the directions where it is taking place, they will do it, which means that they have to extract resources there, in the kupyansk district, in the robotyny district, in the district on avdiivskyi direction, conditionally there, on bakhmutskyi, i.e., advancing on different paths to the chasovoy yar region, to the kurakhovo region , further on in the text, that is, for now, as of today, there is no such direct risk, but this risk will always be there, if you talk about... are you talking about all these statements , which now sound from paris, that even here the troops of nato members may be present, is suf in a position, or just raising the stakes, purely diplomatic? in fact, this is a very interesting story, and i think that the answer to this question is known only by one person and the surname and macron, well maybe more there is a certain number of people from his

inner circle, where it came from, and i think that macron just obviously decided for himself that there is a great chance to seize the initiative, the most powerful, the most eloquent ... leader in europe against the background , as he thinks of the boyaguza scholtz, who has no fish, no meat, who means that there is no charisma, no leadership qualities, and no taurus, yes, and it was necessary, it was necessary to do something to attract attention to you, i think that macron perfectly understands that the military contingent will not appear in ukraine in the near future, if it does appear in the foreseeable future, then it will definitely not take part in hostilities, because well , show me... any kind, not necessarily in the west, in any in what part of the globe, a person who is ready to go to war with the russians now, so i don't have one, but a person who has nuclear weapons and a representative of a country that has nuclear weapons, he understands perfectly well that what is the risk, so i think that it nice gesture, but there's a second nuance, i think

actually, thanks to this experiment scholz, well, the discussion itself has gone to another level, the macron experiment, macron, forgive me... almost a freudian slip, and it can actually benefit us to a certain extent, despite the quarrels that they have started now, because it removes a certain pain threshold, and the third point, well, there is such a version that no one knows in the west, in particular, now we are generalizing the west, no one knows to what breaking point this war must continue, what must happen in order for something to happen resolutely, for example, will speak, and here it is... possible soil probing, as on will russia react to this, is she not ready to make certain concessions, fearing compromises, because she is also afraid, well, this too, i think it is not a secret, of direct confrontation with nato countries, the war is blackmailing them, but i am far from thinking that she is ready to fight with them, especially

now that it has lost, suffered such huge losses, and in all components, well, in fact, they did not blackmail it until this day, you can say, it has always been blackmailed by russia, and now finally in... our western partners another tool appeared blackmail and maybe they want to see how russia reacts to it, so it's more of a conversation right now, but a conversation that can be helpful to some extent because it really takes away some of the pain threshold, so it brought up the subject that, that was a veto was imposed, an embargo was imposed, even , even saying this word out loud, and even the reserved position of canada is also an additional plus in this discussion, it is clear that, well, imagine... a contingent of any country that would officially take part in hostilities on the side of ukraine, well now it looks absolutely incredible, and i remember that the russians said back in 2014 that if nato soldiers appeared here, that would be it, the end of the world, war, they were just

blackmailing with this, well, yes, well, there are a lot of them , they painted a lot of these red lines there, but we and our partners crossed them all the time and there were no consequences. was happening on the one hand, on the other hand, maybe , again, it was maybe a certain reaction, a certain response, a version, let's say, an experiment, an improvisation, if you will, to the fact that the russians have again raised the bar of blackmail, when they started hinting at threats to take nuclear weapons, elements of nuclear weapons, let's call it that, into space, well, now putin says that he was not going to, that's all you said,... he said that he would not encroach on crimea in any way , that there are no russian troops in donbas, and putin said that there will never be an attack on ukraine, what putin says, well, i think that no one believes him, even in russia. if we talk about these fears, which we can see now, according to the reaction

of macron's words, it means that washington's the nato summit will also end without any decisive decisions regarding ukraine. what can happen anyway? i think it is even theoretical to talk about washington. the nato summit has not yet taken place, the future destiny, let's say, of who will be the next host in the white house has not yet been decided, but he will be there before that. he will be before that, but i think that, well, it will already be obvious before the washington summit that with a greater or lesser degree of probability there will be one or another candidate, this is firstly, secondly, i think that all- after all, a lot will depend on that including, oddly enough, probably for someone, and from the way things are going on the front line, if there are... rather disappointing things, i hope they won't, but it's possible, it's a war, there could be whatever,

the chances that we will get some kind of faint offer at one time or another will be slim to none, but in any case, i highly doubt that we will get an offer for admission we will get to nato in one form or another, it seems unlikely today, but what is it unconscious proposal, unconscious proposal is anything that contains the word... we invite you to combine it, then you can cover it with a million different euphemisms, different conditions, different cautions, but if it happens at least like this, it will be a significant step forward , theoretically it is possible, well, it is clear that it is very difficult to be a molfarist in modern life and try to forecast, but today there is a... no more than 5%, but this 5% is, in principle,

if we talk about the euro-atlantic integration of ukraine as a security guarantee, under what conditions can it be undertaken at all, and it cannot be undertaken in reality, look , there are all these stories, well, the fact that the process of signing these agreements is taking place is very correct, security, so-called, so -called security agreements , because what are now gestures of goodwill, it turns into bureaucratic language, into the language of documents, which implies some kind of burden, some obligations, that is, conditionally speaking, we have the right to demand, now we just thank you, because our partners may or may not assist us, they don't have any obligations to us, now certain obligations appear, this allows them to be expanded, deepened, increased, that is, this... is already turning into a process, not chaos, even there, sometimes

productive chaos, but all the same chaos, for a certain process, which involves persistence, planning, obligations, etc., but to call it security guarantees is absolutely ridiculous, they even avoid this phrase, they talk about security proposals, security, whatever they have these are a whole scale, a whole gradation, five different ones terms that, that is... these are certain promises, certain obligations that they undertake, but it is impossible to call it security guarantees , it is not the only security guarantee, well, to a certain extent, where yury, at least, is the fifth article, nato, and now they are hesitating, although in fact, well, i may say something controversial there, i think that in fact, if our partners had the audacity, and perhaps the wisdom, to invite ukraine to the north atlantic block, nothing tragic would have happened

on the contrary, it would have strengthened to a certain extent nato relations themselves, because now there are eastern countries, they are afraid that if , god forbid, here they are, they are already talking about it out loud, if ukraine falls, we will be next, and i am not sure that the fifth article will applied, if ukraine appears there in any form, it is for them, if not a guarantee, but an increase in the probability that... that nato, if it is ready to defend ukraine in theory, will protect us for sure. therefore, in principle, in order for relations to strengthen in the bloc itself, in the alliance itself , it would actually be useful for them, i think, to invite ukraine in one way or another, but this is a policy of the highest echelon, of the highest grade, i cannot, with my modest knowledge and capabilities, predict it. in principle, if we talk about the security situation in this. in this case, we will be forced to quote viktor orban, who said, says that ukraine should

simply be between the west and russia, remain as such a buffer zone, and we have been like that for many years, let me remind you, and our western partners are not out loud, but not officially, they did not hide that they were satisfied that there was a buffer the zone between russia, potentially aggressive, although they did not really dig aggressiveness, but potentially it was still a threat and the nato bloc, which is relentlessly insistent there. not in a hurry, not in a hurry, but it was still expanding , and actually history proved that it does not lead to anything, that this buffer zone only means that this territory, this buffer zone, is doomed to aggression and occupation. at least partially, so this is a road to nowhere, and if we put orban, fiziya , and other characters of a similar ilk in parentheses, then i i think that any person with a rivet in his head in the west, in the collective, which i say again, does not exist, but still some general principles, he understands that this buffer zone does not give anything, in fact, i would remind

again, who does not know that, in principle , nato is not so good... well, the fact that finland and sweden did not want to be nato members for objective reasons, but they were also subjective, that nato, when in general, there was no ground, they were not interested in finland itself being a member of the alliance, they were interested in in order for there to be a buffer between nato and russia in the north, they needed this buffer, but life shows that the time for buffers has passed, i will remind you again for those who have forgotten, or i will address those who are interested. a story that none of the countries except switzerland, it seems , which declared their neutrality, did not save them, it is from the occupation during the second world war, it is about nothing, that is, well, you have to have muscles and you have to have diplomatic efforts, it is necessary to have a reliable rear and not

reliable, reliable, reliable armed forces, which will restrain, that is, options, no matter how much we criticize nato for arbitrariness, for laziness, for whatever, there is no other system of collective security, and nato has no other option than to take ukraine, to invite ukraine, and ukraine has no other the option of becoming a member of nato. here, the question is only, sorry, time and price. well, the settlement of territorial problems is also an important issue here. can ukraine become a member of nato if it is not, at the end of the war, a country that will control its entire territory. maybe maybe well, i will remind you that the federal republic of germany, without giving up its eastern territories, became a member of the north atlantic bloc, i will remind you that despite mutual claims to each other, greece and turkey, well , got along, at least coexisted in the

nato bloc, cyprus, let me remind you, he is not not in nato, he is not in nato, but cyprus, when at one time i thought about such a possibility, there was such a story, it was, in my opinion, in the mid-90s, so he was considering the possibility , whether there will be a division of cyprus into north-south, whether it will be an obstacle to entry into nato, and there it was, i even once read this analytical intelligence in brussels, they said that no, theoretically, if you have such a desire, it won't happen, it's just that the fifth article will not extend to the territory that on today there is actually. i'm just talking about the fact that theoretically this cannot be a problem, practically it can be, because well, if there is no desire, desire to see ukraine as a member of nato, then they will find a million reasons and objective and subjective reasons not to do it, if such a desire, such a longing there will be such an understanding, then i think they will find

a formula, they will find a mechanism to involve ukraine, we were talking about war fatigue. here is potentially an auto from the war in the west, as far as it hinders us , well, by the way, this is a great example in poland, where people say that they are ready to help us, and even at the highest level, but not at the cost of polish economic interests, this is unlikely could be heard in 2022, and i think that another nuance here is that how effectively our polish partners and we ourselves tried to counteract the russian influence on the poles, the fact that the poles are tired, the fact that... the poles have their own internal nuances and they are, let's say, tired of the war, and as one politician wrote, they are a little tired of the ukrainians, this too, on it's a pity, of course, but there are also subjective factors, the fact that the russians tried to use this effectively , to take advantage of it, and our polish partners, and maybe we, even within the limits of our limited

capabilities there, well, probably, we did not oppose it to the end so much , as much as they could, is a guess. i don't know how right i am but that's how this fatigue will affect, here a lot depends on diplomats, a lot depends on our military, and on those people who heroically carry this war on their backs, successes will change the situation, will it affect, well, the war has turned into a routine for many, and even for those who are at the front, for many it has turned into a routine, for those who are in the rear and in the west, and routine is always, well, it is a different empathy, yes, absolutely. the other thing is that there are no more acute sensations, and it is not known what he has to happen in order for this aggravation to reappear, but that is exactly why these security agreements are needed. because they turn the war into a routine, and aid into a routine, and empathy into a routine, and in fact you can use these opportunities, but to hope that there will be

such a thing in one rush, as it was in the 22nd year, alas not anymore, well, unless something incredible and dramatic really happens that will fundamentally change the situation, but war is a complicated, difficult story, to say how much this fatigue will affect, well... here it is necessary, i don't know how much different information to have and exactly how to analyze it in order to come up with at least some predictions, whether it will affect how deeply, well, it is very difficult to say, will be more critical approach to the ukrainian leadership in this situation, the approach as an institution, the european union before the negotiations, we have seen all these stories with remarks about the non-admission of opposition deputies to international forums, it is already said out loud in the resolutions of the european parliament, it did not happen that way either, they tried to close it eyes on similar trends were the day before yesterday, i think that there will not be any significant change, i think that certain things will be, if you like, even

forgiven, and for two reasons: first, because there is still an awareness that the country is at war and even if they do not like or share the actions of the government or the government in the broadest sense of the word, the president and leaders there, it will still be me... there, let's say, concessions are made to the fact that the country is waging a war, and it is difficult there are certain things, although even this will be attacks, a friend, well, there is still a moment, you know, reproaches conscience, not everyone has it, but it exists, well, we don't, no , not to the end, we don't help 100% even where we could, can we in this sense demand from them 100% of what we want, and there is still the third point, which is not talked about out loud, but it is also... and on the one hand , the european union cannot but provide ukraine with additional opportunities for european integration to advance in the eu. on the other hand, the eurovites union

doesn't really see ukraine yet for a million reasons, the first of which is the war. in the european union, and if ukraine will not be there until the end adhere to certain norms, practices, requirements, standards, criteria, it can. because it naturally slows down this path, therefore, unfortunately, such and such a circumstance can also be, well, that is, in fact, we are talking about any- in all situations about long-term processes, this is a long-term process, so complicated, it, to things can accelerate if there are certain changes, including in the course of events, now they are difficult, let's say , to predict, difficult to see, but they can be, both in the negative direction and in the positive direction, and there... black or white swans can appear even where we don't expect them, there are things that are incredibly predictable, if we close our eyes now and go back two years, there are

a lot of things that happened that we could not have predicted, both in the negative and in the positive forward from the 22nd year, yes, and before that you too, well, just even in these two years, an incredible number of things happened, they seem obvious and even commonplace to us now, but in times like european integration, let's say yes.. or discussion of the contingent on the territory of ukraine, that is incredible things, or anything else, whether there , for example, sweden and finland in nato, that's also an incredible thing, and many, many, many other things, so everything can change, and what is politics, what is war, that a combination of factors, and some factors cannot be calculated, and things that... seem to be unrelated in the aggregate can affect the situation, so if there are favorable circumstances, then our path to european integration is certain, which in my opinion, well is

irreversible, it may accelerate, and what we are told is 2030 as the earliest date, it can actually be closer, and it can be longer, if the situation is unfavorable, because i say again, there are many factors, many problems, and in fact this year will be for us... well, if not decisive, then for sure the most difficult for today, it will be, well, in my opinion, even more difficult than the 22nd year, from a political or military point of view are negative for us, but this does not mean that we should wrap ourselves in white open space and wasteland in the direction of the cemetery, it means that we have to reorient our efforts and... give up some things, focus on some things. thank you, mr. sergey. serhii rakhmanin, people's deputy of ukraine, member of the verkhovna rada's committee on national security, defense and intelligence, was

on our air, and it remains. just to understand , you know, whether history will speed up after two years of war, or slow down, is also always unknown, but we, by the way, may just see it in the 24th year, we will see how the topic is changing, i hope, thank you for this conversation, thank you, dear viewers , who were on the air with us in the politclub program, conducted for you by vitaly portnikov, i wish you all the best, victory and peace to all of you and stay with espress, good luck . there are 10% discounts on lisobact in psyllany bam and oskad pharmacies. and you will see what is wandering, the poems that unite the nation through generations will be heard in a special way, sisters telniuk in lviv with

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great return of great lviv. conversations, discussions, search for solutions. the largest talk format of ukraine in the evening prime time. i at all i think we need two things. money and weapons. we did not start this war, but we must finish it and we must win. the

most important thing is that every thursday at 25:15 velikiy lviv speaks in the project on the air of the espresso tv channel. greetings to all espresso viewers. yaanamelnik and time to find out. about the most current events at the moment: kidnapped an eight-year-old girl and kept her underground. a terrible incident happened in one of the villages of the bereznyhgovat community of mykolaiv oblast. the regional police informs. relatives reported the disappearance of the child on the evening of the 1st march during the search, the law enforcement officers found a disguised hiding place, and the intruder and the child were in it.