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you, dear tv viewers, on the espresso tv channel, studio zahid program. we will analyze the most important events of this week and , of course, we will try to predict what the following weeks will bring us. our guests today are glen grant, a retired british army colonel, and russian opposition figure in exile, mark fagin. glen grant, the colonel, will be working on espresso tv channel now. retired british army military expert. glory to ukraine. glory to russia. the situation in the east is extremely difficult now. the enemy is trying to develop its offensive actions. extremely tough battles are going on, but the armed forces of ukraine are doing everything possible and impossible under the given circumstances. first, it's a bitter fight, and both sides are pushing hard, possibly because of the russian election. general intelligence reports

suggest that the russian side, while appearing strong, is not as formidable as it may seem. however, they are fully committed to the battle, which shows their limitations reserves or additional support. additionally, there are reports of additional munitions from north korea in addition to their own production. this puts russian troops in a lot of trouble. a stronger position compared to the ukrainians, who were forced to retreat and are now strengthening their defenses along the river lines west of avdiivka. it is hoped that these defensive lines have been adequately prepared to withstand the pressure. however, it is clear that the ukrainian side faces problems due to a lack of personnel and ammunition, which is complicated by the limitation in support from america and europe. the result of this battle. could

be decisive, if ukraine succeeds in gaining the river line, it will give it time to stabilize the front and develop a strategy for the future, however, if russia breaks through, the next months could prove extremely difficult. how powerfully can the enemy try to develop its offensive actions after avdiivka? this is how we understand that offensive actions are manpower resources, equipment resources , and logistical resources for... general coordination at the front. as you can see now the idea of ​​the russian general staff? undoubtedly, the main goal of russia is to exhaust ukraine and achieve a breakthrough. putin perceives the west as weak at the moment, which gives him a favorable opportunity to launch a strong attack. obviously, if a party does not have sufficient ammunition and manpower, it becomes vulnerable to attack because its weakness is...exploited by the enemy. on

the ukrainian side, we did not help ourselves by holding our positions for so long, especially in places like avdiivka. this decision cost us dearly in terms of resources that could be better used in more strategically prepared positions along a straight line. obtaining such a surrounded position as avdiivka requires much more forces and means than the defense of a straight line. russia will undoubtedly continue to press and use all available resources, especially in view of the upcoming elections in moscow, where putin needs to demonstrate success not only in one city, but also across the country to validate his entire battle plan. so this is a critical moment, both for ukraine and for russia. now we see that the front line is extremely powerfully activated, this is the kupin direction, this is done. and this is the south,

various not very pleasant surprises can await the south as well, if we talk about the enemy's offensive impulse in those three directions, is there already some understanding, which on... the enemy can use or try to make its strategic offensive? difficult to predict for two reasons: first, it will depend on their success. remember that russian doctrine is about entrenching success, so their strategy will most likely be to assess which of the areas to they will press the message, it will be the most vulnerable. they are not only that. whichever area the russians find weakest, they will reinforce it with additional ammunition and manpower to maintain pressure and possibly break through the defensive line. there is already an understanding or feeling of where

the enemy will try to concentrate his resources, kupyansk or the south. again, it's difficult to make a definitive assessment at this point, although we have... if ukrainian forces gain their ground, russia may continue its current strategy. however, if any part of the ukrainian defense begins to crack, as, for example, the situation in avdiivka, russia will most likely concentrate its efforts there. it is too early to talk about that. will russia increase its attacks in a specific area? significant pressure is observed in many regions, in particular in the south near mariupol and on the western front near avdiivka. it may take another two weeks or so to assess how effectively ukrainian defenses are holding up in

these areas before we can determine where russia will concentrate its efforts. it is important to recognize that it is difficult to predict russia's actions until it decides. areas of its success against ukraine, which it will focus on in its strategy. in the confrontation with russia, during a full-scale war, we understand that asymmetric actions are also important. of course, the first priority target of strategic importance is the crimean bridge, its destruction would disrupt transport links with crimea, forcing russia to rely on sea or... secondary routes, which creates logistical problems also, any delays due to damage to the rail bridges will make it even more difficult for the russians to move, although asymmetric actions can be effective, especially for disrupting enemy operations, i'm skeptical of their direct

impact on the front line against russia's full resources and capabilities. asymmetric actions often require missiles with a longer range and more. number of marine drones that may be difficult to access. asymmetric actions really have power only when they are directly related to operations on front line simply targeting the rear may not have the desired effect on the front unless executed with strategic ingenuity. the example of world war ii illustrates the strategic value of disabling key industrial facilities such as power stations, well because of... german dams, as well as ball bearing factories, as they are essential to enemy equipment and mobility. today , disrupting the production of electronic chips could similarly limit an enemy's capabilities, but russia's access to these components

from abroad complicates such an approach. sanctions play a critical role in limiting russia's military capabilities by targeting key supplies such as artillery ammunition. after all, well-trained personnel and mastery of basic artillery and drone capabilities remain indispensable components of our defense strategy. these foundations, combined with innovative approaches , are necessary to effectively counter russian military power. i don't know, hundreds of russian soldiers die every day, russian aircraft regularly crashes, but... there is a feeling that they are beginning to regroup, and some evidence of this is the change in the military districts of the russian federation. from the russian side, it is obvious that they are quickly learning, adapting and developing their strategies for conducting military operations at a pace that is ahead of the pace of the ukrainian

general staff. there is no doubt about their effectiveness in implementing these changes. however, as i emphasized earlier, ukraine must find a way. to outwit the russians strategically. the creation of uncertainty and destruction of their body positions was revealed an effective way to force them to retreat, as happened at raisin. even good. trained troops fled when faced with such a situation, and they simply mounted their bicycles and rode away. when the russians , aware of them, bypassed the flank, they become vulnerable and more likely to attack. the danger is that the russians may face us head-on in a conventional soviet-style battle. in such scenarios, the russians have a numerical advantage. most stocks of ammunition and a general advantage in technology make them stronger than ukraine. therefore, it is extremely important. to review our approach to this conflict and consider alternative strategies: continuing

to confront russia using the same tactics it is using against us will only lead to further retreats on our part. it is important to think innovatively and use tactics that focus on vulnerable places for russia. new military districts. i don't think there is any clear logic behind it. i need time to study and understand the implications of some. russian changes, it seems, that they are trying to implement innovation and take warfare to a new level, but their exact intentions are not yet clear. what will the spring-summer campaign be like, as you see it, if you look at the situation from a strategic overview, or do you think the enemy may dare to open additional areas of the front, in particular in belarus. it is unknown, no one fully understands the situation through. various current factors. general tsirskyi and his new team aim to change the approach to

warfare, which is the first variable. if they succeed, it can lead to changes in the dynamics of the conflict. however, without such changes, there is a risk of either a stalemate or further territorial losses for ukraine. the second variable is that a proper training system for the ukrainian military will be created, as it currently does not exist. improved training can. significantly improve the quality of ukrainian troops and their effectiveness in combat. the third change concerns support from europe and the us, particularly financial aid. if congress appropriates the funds, ukrainian forces will have access to more ammunition and resources that will improve their fighting capacity. the fourth variable is belarus. for now, it remains independent, dare to even describe it that way. elections will be held this year. and we don't know what can change in lukashenka's mind. of course, we know that

he will be re-elected, because there will be no elections as such. there, this process is honed on the model of russia, he will simply become the president, gaining 147% of the votes, no matter how ridiculous it sounds. however, we do not know whether after re-election he will continue to run on his hind legs before putin, or whether he will still act of his own free will, and in in the event that from the north, as such a threat will no longer be... one must look at each of these variables and test them, and certainly society must ask what changes will take place in the army, because it does not make sense to change all the commanders and appoint new ones. if nothing changes after the arrival of new commanders, if they continue to do the same, then perhaps such a rotation should not have been carried out, because of the desired result. will not be, so the event will now focus on whether there are

positive dynamics after the arrival of the new one command in the direction of the western way of conducting military operations and the western way of training fighters, and not the continuation of the implementation of the consequences of the soviet legacy. a couple of days ago there was an extremely important summit in the elysée palace in paris, president macron gathered people and promised, so to speak, that there will be increased military... support, so on the one hand it is an extremely good signal, although we very often divide promises in half. president macron looks worried and maybe he is taking insurance, yes, because the war is on the european continent has every prospect to involve sooner or later, but one or another member of nato, and accordingly, the europeans will have to do something, not just promise taurus missiles, which they then. they will not give such. first, let's clarify that

there is nothing particularly new in this situation. it's just another step forward on the same trajectory. macron's recognition of the threat to europe is rather a political maneuver aimed at strengthening his own image against the background of scholz and influence in europe. rather than a real concern about ukraine. any guesses, new quote actions or support. from the side of france could have been provided several months ago, which emphasizes the political nature of his statements. it is worth noting that french aid often does not live up to expectations. and this trend should restrain any excitement about the next promises. at the same time, some northern european countries, such as estonia, finland and poland, are taking tangible steps to address the situation. many other european countries are far from aware of the seriousness of the threat they face would have faced without american support.

macron's statements lack the necessary force and energy to demonstrate genuine commitment. "if he was really serious, we would have seen deployed french troops on ukrainian soil a long time ago. however, his rhetoric shows that he is more talk than action. serious countries prefer action over talk, while macron's approach appears to be built on rhetoric rather than real effort. as for the united nations, it is important to recognize its limited effectiveness and influence. it. just some bazaar with as much energy behind it as any supermarket chain in europe. unfortunately, these are the same words without action. similarly, the european union has not fully realized the urgency of the situation and has not resorted to decisive measures. thus, despite the rhetoric and

debate, there is little to indicate substantive change or meaningful action. from. the essence of specific steps, such as the deployment of troops in ukraine, shows that the current situation is characterized more by talk than by real transformations. thank you very much for this extremely an important conversation in our dramatic times. mr. colonel, i would like to remind our viewers that now espresso had a retired colonel of the british army, a military expert, glen grant. greetings, this is svoboda live on radio svoboda. we have already approached the serpent himself. the following shots may shock you. news from the scene, live. kamikaze drone attacks. political analytics, objectively and meaningfully. there is no

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to ukraine, mark, i congratulate you. well, the population of the russian federation, i think. was waiting for his führer in order to analyze , so to speak, the new guidelines, he started , so to speak, about fishing, you understand, about headlights , painting the grass, about new heating lines, about some, i don’t know, country cooperatives about everything anything, but not about the key. the number of corpses, i.e. at least a quarter of a million russian soldiers who lay in the ukrainian chernozems, is in principle not it's scary, that is, the system... entered into some kind of, you know, cannibalistic stability, you know, there were probably several versions of this report, including or not including some sharp points, especially about the war in ukraine and some related issues with the international agenda, everyone expected that something would be said in the context of transnistria, there were some reasons for this, because the kremlin

deliberately incited such a situation, this is not the first time that this has happened, which... and it looked like an ordinary pre-election speech the day before yes called elections on march 17, as a report on the work done, it looks something like this, the aktiv farm, so well known from soviet times, airports, horticulture and so on, that is, in this sense, they went for a softer option, what was the reason for this? it's hard to say, it seems to me that they decided not to make the topic of the war central, not to connect with it, to calmly pass the 2.5 weeks remaining until the formalities. it doesn't matter how they vote, the result of 70% turnout and

80% support for putin will be announced. therefore, they decided not to bother and decided to go clean bureaucratically this moment. although someone will say, why was it necessary to schedule this speech on february 29 on a leap day, which... happens once every four years, a very symbolic date for this, and we know that the month of february is so important for putin, because he killed nemtsov in in february, killed navalny in february, started a war with ukraine in february, that is, he could already have it on march 1 or 2, that is , the date was chosen, who believes in numerology, maybe not by chance, we assume that, but with all that, it was limited to a purely bureaucratic set , this such a small blow-off, because in general putin is convinced that everything is going more or less well, not perfectly, but more or less well. and

echelons in refrigerators of russian soldiers, it is somehow not baked, that is, we do not see, in principle, any social feedback. well, of course, yes, that is why he does not feel the threat and danger from this factor of war costs, that is, a significant number of dead military personnel. does not occur, this is not feedback. he himself will not pedal this topic, or in any way solve or restrain it. if the people are not indignant, then in principle everything goes more or less normally. judge for yourself, on the second anniversary of the war, zelensky speaks and talks about 31,000 dead ukrainian soldiers, and multiple times, at least five times as many dead russians. i think the ratio is correct. some argue whether this number is accurate or not, but the ratio is quite real. moreover,

western sources paint the same picture. and what ukrainian sources said about losses. shoigu announced a single number of losses in september 2022. 5900 losses. after never called a single number. is it a coincidence, in my opinion, it is not a coincidence at all, that is, the topic of losses is removed from the agenda, tightly pressed so that it does not sound in any form. look, recently some z-blogger shot himself, as always an idiot, such a bearded guy from the dnr with the call sign moroz or mors, i'll be honest, i don't follow him, and why did he shoot himself, because his people were killed because he said that avdiivka is stupid loss of 16,000 lives, he repeated the figure that sounded from american sources regarding official losses that avdiyivka is the cemetery of the mobilized, and that's all

, it was proved, he hanged himself, i think that the hand of lubyanka also played some role there, maybe not directly, but one way or another, that this morse or moroz was rinsed by solovyov himself, respectively, this direct technique, direct installation, we do not talk about losses, there are no losses at all. you also know, judge for yourself , why not put up monuments to them , some kind of steles to heroes in the cities, i know information from russia, they hide quietly, without fanfare, quietly put, closed, buried, no fanfare , no television shows, hide heroes, here we saw in ukraine when hearses go, funerals go to... people gather, stand along the road, we saw it, that is, farewell is a big memorial day, it is a very significant event for the city, small towns of ukraine, because people

they understand that young people died for the sovereignty, for the existence of ukraine. russia has none of this. in the crack of words, he says in his report that the new elites, and the veterans - who are they? prisoners whom they sent and they did not return, who are these veterans, who are these ales? you see, this one the difference is, if this topic had arisen in russia and it would have been necessary to react to it, then of course they would have done something somehow. if the people themselves do not demand answers for these two-year losses, and it is not yet known how many will die, then why should they raise this topic themselves. many western analysts talked about the fact that he is preparing one or the other, i don't know if there are demonstrative or symbolic moments before the moment of reassignment, but no, we see that seriously... the spring-summer campaign is seriously heating up, i think so, under this there are reasons why else, it is clear for putin it is important to demonstrate military successes, but

all this is happening against the background of this disorder and wavering among ukraine's allies, in particular in the united states. we see, as we predicted last year, that the election campaign of november 2024 in the usa will not only affect the unity of the ranks. consistency, continuity of aid to ukraine. the allies assumed these obligations themselves, and not because ukraine bargained for something. they themselves took these commitments, they declared it themselves, for example, about... it didn't work out in one word, it doesn't happen if you took obligations, you are not some subject of international politics who is not responsible for your words, you can't do that here, if you said something, then do it, and what will other allies think, they are already thinking, when after

trump's speech in carolina, the europeans look... how encouraged that trump, who is likely to be nominated at least by the republican party as the primary candidate, but we don't know what will happen in november, maybe he will win the election, he says such things that really embarrass european allies, it turns out that the us goes in the role of guarantor, defender of the main western power, leader of the free world, it is interesting, if it is really so, then it is probably then. will affect not only ukraine, but also european and other allies around the world. if they cannot agree in the congress to provide funds, i emphasize this meager amount of funds, comparing what is spent on other programs in the usa, then this shows the weakness, and not the strength of this main guarantor, the main ally of ukraine, as well as the main nato countries. therefore, against this background, putin has the momentum that he has somewhere

hides, and somewhere not. of course, they think that the moment is favorable for some kind of attack on a wide front or in its separate sections, in order to achieve positional success, until all that is happening in the united states is over. november is almost 8 months. a lot will happen during this time. probably, the kremlin leadership connects its plans and military plans with this situation. mark, why was navalny removed, the month of february, symbolism, but anyway, well, the man was, you know, beyond the urals, constantly sat or kept her in isolation and so on and so forth, that is, here it is: i tend to believe the version that i myself expressed before it was expressed by the fcb, maria povchikh, this is such an important figure within the system of

navalny's team. stated that some kind of exchange was being prepared, even if it was not about navalny, a decision had already been reached, because you know, exchange is such a thing, i myself did not directly participate in the exchange of ukrainian political prisoners, i know all this, it was agreed, did not fulfill, postponed, that is, many factors that affect, even accidental, not what big political ones, but i believe that the west tried... tried to get navalny out of a russian prison. why did putin kill him? first, he kills everyone. they tried to kill navalny in 2020, when they poisoned him as a rookie. in revenge, they killed prigozhin, they killed many other people. why don't they kill navalny in advance? in prison, he would not be able to have

any influence. and if he were at large in europe or america, would anyone be able to vouch for him? what would his biography be and what challenge would he throw to the kremlin? it's not a matter of fear the question is that this is how they see the solution to the issue, they see all problems as nails that need to be driven in with a hammer, and they have no other vision. that they are no longer afraid of the consequences, before they were somehow afraid, circling. now the elections were conducted the way they were conducted, even their own candidate nadezhdin , who was nominated, accepted and not allowed to participate in the elections, although he was a completely controlled candidate, they even decided to play it safe in this matter, so why did they not play it safe in the matter of the main opponent the kremlin, which navalny and was navalny really was an anti-system politician, we...