donald trump as a serious political figure who can radically change the situation is unknown. mr. antin, very wise , it is not known in which situation, although from my point of view today it is already possible to predict if the winner will be trump, because i understand internally that knowing all the american election scandals, as far as i can say that i know, today i can be sure in the fact that it is too early for trump, but god be with him, our compatriots prefer to hear the answers to this question, they want to hear the arguments for, against and so on. the situation that is unfolding now is pretty damn similar to what it was like in 1979, 1980. let me remind you, this is actually the coming to

power and the election of ronald reagan, probably those who remember, or those who read, know that on november 4, 1979 in tehran, as a result of the seizure of the embassy , ​​60 american hostages were taken diplomats, they were released, released to america on november 4. falls a few minutes later as reagan takes the oath of office. for a long time everyone broke their spears, what happened that on november 4, in exactly one year, they were captured, life will take us through a famous military operation, which was called the plate of rice, it was also called the eagle's claw, it had many names. where the carter

administration simply failed and within this operation they asked the military to cancel it, although 10, i think 10 soldiers died, a lot of equipment was lost, but after a few minutes, as soon as reagan was inaugurated, the hostages were released, what happened when they asked president-elect royld reagan, what are you? did what you did so well achieve results quickly, he said, i didn’t do it , my people worked, after a few years it will become known that the so-called reagan people needed 40 million dollars to bribe the leadership of iran, including this money got to the ayatala, the unruly homies, not khomeini, but khomeini, well, the predecessor of the current one so that... no matter if they

gave carter as the president at that time these hostages, the situation is currently developing in this scenario: pay attention to when mike johnson was elected, the speaker of the house of representatives, you have to remember remember that the elections this time will be held, as it should be, on the second tuesday, that is, it will be the fifth tuesday, the first tuesday after the first tuesday. on the weekend of november, it will be the fifth, on the fifth the americans will go to the polls, they will vote, depending on what, and from my point of view , few people here can say, depending on what, because it is basically it doesn't matter, there will be a vote somehow if the similar decisions that were last week by the supreme court that were made in favor of trump. will not solve the problem in advance, because

including this vote, pay attention, mike johnson comes out of the president's office, says: aid to ukraine will be voted when it is needed, a unique phrase, this phrase suggests that it is being announced by an inexperienced person, but a person who is in to the information field, which understands the problems, the breakthrough can come, or... from whom it can come, so this is the scenario that we see then in 1980, it is very similar to what it is now, years will pass, as well as now, because the fact that i am the actual topic, well, the essence the content of what sometimes happens in politics, and here, when they tell me that trump says that he will be like that, sir?

i want to emphasize again, i understand very well that whoever, however reagan came to power, his efforts destroyed the soviet empire, and i am ... convinced that the military lobby behind trump, in his case victory, it will do a lot for russia to finish. and the theses that trump will go to flirt with the moscow führer, they are aimed at the ukrainians now beating spears with trump. i warn the ukrainian leaders in advance that there is no need to interfere in that process as much as possible today... we need to get help from everyone, including the united states of america, but not to get into that process so much that after november 4 , we regret that we intervened in this process, and i completely share the point of view of boris johnson here, because he is a person and an expert and

a journalist, a journalist, as a creative person, is given to feel these subtleties and the reasoning that he goes through... he goes through trump, she quite serious enough to be ignored, so from my point of view, and these parallels of '79-'80, and the current course of events with the delayed vote, in the house of representatives, they are very similar to all these things, by the way, it's in the nature of the republicans, they more than once have gone through such... processes in political battles, and i will say this now, as a person who is outside the power processes, i want to warn and explain to ukrainians, ukrainian officials, that these american phenomena should be treated as american phenomenon

what do we need now you know, internally i am more wary of the ukrainian power corridors and their inability to counter such things than of... society, the army and so on, because these things, the army, society, defense forces, they are very stable and strong, but there are conflicts that arise all the time in the political system, and its essence is that there is one drawback that continues to live, the government ignores the opposition's position, it is impossible and inadmissible to do this in the conditions of war. how much has already been said about the examples that happened and so on, because what will arise as soon as the situation escalates and it will be necessary to take some serious steps, the absence of this dialogue will necessarily lead to a serious conflict in the capital,

on the streets of the capital, this is a very dangerous thing, therefore the idea of ​​national unity, which should have been implemented through the government nationally . unity, through some coordination council of national unity, and so on, it must be done, because it is another thing like, he was not released abroad, against him he was released, unjustified charges were issued, and so on, in the information poly can lead to very serious stress. now, one more thing, it is clear that in such situations, the outside is activated, and here it is very important to distinguish. macron's idea from the point of view of its rational content and essence, and the idea of ​​lihuey, who is simply moscow's envoy in the ukrainian corridors, because i want to draw attention to one thing: the spokeswoman of the chinese foreign ministry, answering

the question of the same journalist, thanked the ukrainian and russian sides for constructive cooperation and objective. the formation of beijing, i was a little surprised by this alignment, well , it is typical for dictatorial red offices to put the victim and the aggressor on the same level, i understand that, therefore in 12 of these points there is no difference between ukraine and russia, there are both sides, it is only used that way as a last resort, but this thank you i was a little worried. because it must be understood that since both ankara and beijing passed by ankara, beijing today is making sure that warring ukraine, based on the results of this year, still gave 6.7 million tons of grain to the chinese, this is necessary, just imagine self, warrior

the country, to the one who helps the aggressor, and also sells grain, because he has problems with food. and this representative minister, the minister of foreign affairs at the munich conference, the minister of china, to christoph heusgen's question, why don't you... implement the budapest memorandum, he said, but we did not sign it, the british, americans, and ukrainians signed it, and, but when khoitsyn objected to him that the document was voted by the security council, he added that we had nothing to do with the situation that had developed we have, that's why to me these sino-pakistani ki according to the scenario of moscow's wisdom are already in the making, and the fact is that i want to emphasize once again, this is a thing... which from the point of view of diplomatic skills and all this

tangle that twists in the international plan, they are very dangerous, because we are only now, just now, passing this turn, in which we almost flew to kanava with poland, and now we still can, we have a chance to enter the same picket, the situation with lihuuai's trip , which you... solves the issues needed by beijing, its whole concern for ukraine in this situation and about the ceasefire is only that it speaks, no more and no less, because last year china and russia gained 270 billion in trade turnover, in three months of this year, on the 24th, already +25, if you look at what 's in it... there's energy, there 's industry, there's electronics, that is, there's

microcircuits, there's rare earth metals, actually what's needed to produce weapons for war. please note that nine months have passed since likhovei traveled around ukraine and europe, where he talked about the fact that ukrainians should give the captured territories to... the enemy, this time he brought another thing, that in order to talk about these things, it is necessary to talk with russia, this is thesis number one and thesis number two: it is impossible to realize one's security without taking into account the security of the neighbor, you know what is behind these words , ukraine cannot, ukraine cannot join nato, because it is dangerous for russia, if you add what i wrote... kharab and shapiro, who say that today, it is important that

someone from the entourage of the president of ukraine says, that the decree not to hold negotiations does not apply only to putin himself, and it does not apply to ordinary people, and secondly, it is important that the kremlin say, what mark in the territory of ukraine do they want to reach? when you read all these things, you understand that you need to have strong nerves. system, i say this so that everyone understands that they are agents of the kremlin, they will always show themselves and will always write all kinds of nonsense in order to nervously destabilize us, so i wish that all of us who come from beijing, who come from very money-loving americans and europeans, so that we can withstand them, as for washington and whether or not the first lady will go to the speech of president

biden, i will say this, every official, in addition to being human, has functions, and i can tell you how not a professional diplomat, that 90% of the time you have to do the work you don't like, but you have to do it, because you were sent to negotiate, the enemy in front of you... is your imperfect friend, or a friend with a sick head, that's it it's such a thing, you have to do this work, and when you especially need help, then with whom you are sitting nearby, what you are flying in and what you are wearing, this is an absolutely ten-fold thing, we all need to understand that there are situations in which, and this is for diplomats in most cases , you do not belong to yourself, your role is to fulfill a function , which you have to do, for example, what a pity, i have to end our conversation, i am sincerely grateful to you, mr. roman, for this brilliant analysis, i want to remind our tv viewers that

roman bezsmertny, an iconic ukrainian politician and diplomat, was currently working on espresso. events, happenings just now and affect our lives. of course, the news story reports about them, but it is not enough to know what is happening, one must understand it. antin borkovskyi and invited experts tverez. evaluate events, analyze them, modeling our future, every saturday at 1:10 p.m., with a repeat on sunday at 10:10 a.m. studio zahid with anton borkovsky at espresso.

oleksandr morozov, a political scientist, political expert, lives and works in prague, will be working on the air of the tv channel. glory to ukraine, oleksandr, i congratulate you, glory to the heroes, hello. if we talk about the trajectory the death that putin has now

outlined, how far do you think he would be willing to go now, and in general, what would the... collective response be, if it comes, because what is happening in the united states is extremely disturbing. if you look realistically, the kremlin is now in this position. first, not only the blitzkrieg of 2022 failed, it must be recognized that the results of the entire military campaign to date are significantly lower than what putin had hoped for. this is without a doubt. in a way, it's massive the failure of a military campaign? an exemplary example, which many military experts are now paying attention to, the kremlin began to destroy avdiivka in march 2023. last october 2023 , a sort of assault began, which ended at the end of february 2024. and

there are no more tangible, serious successes. at the same time, are the kremlin and putin preparing a new offensive? maybe, but it's not clear. and those who carefully observe this situation from the military side do not have a sure answer to this question. the kremlin's war is bogged down. this is a fundamental point. the second moment important. and what is happening around at this time? in europe? and something strange is happening in europe. the christian democrats faction in the bundestag insists that germany provide taurus to ukraine. this is a really amazing event, because it was said about the cdu and csu: bavarians fully support putin, they are guided only by economic interests. and now the cdu

takes such a firm position. macron has just hinted publicly to the kremlin that... on the sidelines of conferences that he attends, some speakers are publicly saying that european armies will have to directly participate in the russo-ukrainian war. the kremlin reacts painfully to this, couch smarts laugh at macron, but the reality here is an extremely new opinion, a new message that macron conveys to the kremlin in a neat way. finland and... sweden join nato. an unprecedented process is taking place on the eastern flank. the ten-year military construction procedure for nato's eastern flank has begun. now these days there is training there with a hundred thousand contingent in central and eastern europe. and the delay in receiving

the american package of military aid, which is now available, is causing a lot of despair, but at the same time. the reality is roughly what general austin, the united states secretary of defense, said late last year. military industries have received orders in 35 states of the united states for 2024-2025 and will be operating. we can clearly see that the european governments and the united states are setting themselves the task of increasing the production of projectiles four or five times. this is the reality after two years of war, and i would said that this is on the one hand very even encouraging from the point of view that the kremlin is stuck in a state of waiting now. the kremlin is clearly counting on something to happen . the hussites in the middle east will create problems, china will start something, the west will somehow

decline by itself, ukrainians will get tired, etc. this is a state of waiting for something to swing in the direction of the kremlin. but on the other hand, it causes anxiety. because putin has shown in the past that he can wait a long time. but at the same time, it is now clearly visible that this war itself transformed russian society for the worse . putin is now in a situation where in 10 days he will receive 85% in his so-called election, that is, a confidence referendum, and with a large turnout. it is clear to the federal assembly that he may not be satisfied with the war as it is going, but with the way his economy is, he is satisfied and satisfied

with the state of russian society, which he likes, it was reborn, there was no final form of a conformist society that is ready to go anywhere endure any repression against themselves. exactly this creates a rather dangerous situation for any subsequent decision of the kremlin. i just wanted to think about this with you, what this next phase could be. the war did not become as popular as putin and his technologists had hoped, but we understand that he is entering a long scenario. indeed, society, more precisely, the population. now we rarely use the word society in relation to russia. not to expect that there is a civil society that influences the processes, no, there is a population, and we can

say about social strata, social groups that, depending on their professions or location, are now benefiting from putin's war or losing something, but have worked their tails off and remain the most loyal and ready to be so in the future. in other words, putin's population is ready for anything. this is a fundamental factor. and a plus to this is the bureaucracy. a very large bureaucratic layer. yes, during the war, in these two years, putin finally felt his bureaucracy, which was prepared by kiriyenko together with his apparatus in the last 5-7 years very actively. putin, the kremlin downloaded the programs. by the way, now the kremlin is very actively testing these models in the occupied territories, what kirienko himself and not only him, but a large circle

of people from moscow, are doing in the occupied territories, building their bureaucracy and management apparatus there. this is all a long-term process. putin makes us understand that he is not running for one next term, but two. that is, plan until 2036, not until 2030. this is how he sees this situation. we cannot say that he will succeed in all this, because there are many factors that we cannot predict, but the kremlin plans yes. it all works, it all boils down to violence, no doubt about it. and this cannot but continue in the war. i

took a rather careful and serious approach to putin's revelations, which he made in an interview with the so-called carlson, and we understand that there is a certain fixation in him, this fixation is ukraine, that is , where i see manifestations of a certain historiosophy, i am extremely strongly on ... bearing in mind that when there is a mobilized nation, this is how we understand where it is being mobilized, it can have very specific manifestations. this historiosophy is for every listener seems crazy and fantastic, because all the interlocutors of putin and carlson also grew up in the modern world, in the world of modern concepts, sovereignty and global security, and putin begins to tell them his phantasmagorical. consists of different

ethnic groups, but it is one imaginary post-soviet nation, which, if reunited under the auspices of moscow, will be some new, great, majestic imperial entity that will change the course of world history. and the kremlin promoted this idea with the help of various formulations and intellectual contexts. the kremlin once insisted that this was russian peace. now it is already clear that putin emphasizes not on russian peace, on a concept unmarked by ethnicity. it clearly sounds that not only from the point of view of putin , the people are supposedly fraternal, but simply one and the same people. and within this world, let's say, now, if some actions against moldova are started from the kremlin, then there will be the same concept. moldovans are the same people.

that is, that by killing ukrainians, he is doing everything to finally unmoor himself from the civilization for the maximum distance. yes, but of course that it is impossible to convey this simple idea to putin, which is obvious to everyone in europe. especially after the second world war. new, increased, which is based on the fact that state borders and cultural borders are preserved, but at the same time they are not the main thing, they are open. the impossibility of war on the territory of europe, many times all european politicians in three generations have repeated this important opinion.

you cannot explain all this to putin, because it is obvious that his consciousness, and now also the consciousness of his entourage, and worst of all, the consciousness of very large contingents, if speaking sociologically in russia, they are really fascinated by this idea, that is, they are fascinated by some phantasmagoric idea that russia in the 21st century should become some kind of truly hegemonic power here on the continent, that is , equalize itself with... europe in conflict, not in cooperation. at the same time, it is clear that they are ready for anything for the sake of this idea. they are ready to sacrifice long-standing relations with israel. they have already sacrificed their long-standing relationship with germany. they are ready, and it is clearly visible now, to flirt with china. and they are ready for the world scene, if china refuses, and china...

refuses to just pretend that russia and iran stand against the rest of the world, it 's all terrible, but none of us can imagine how this is possible, even if there is still someone in russia sane wise people inside some old institutes of international politics, in the institute of europe, the academy of sciences, for example, or in similar places, these people also have no idea how to think about russian politics in a different way now. look, why was navalny put on the chopping block? that is, it is not a simple, so to speak, technical point, we understand that this is a certain message, which was most likely not directed at domestic russian elites. it is so. the symbolic meaning of navalny's murder is clearly visible. and it must be said that it caused such an international response. it is obvious. we are now seeing a series of publications that

various deaths among russians have been recorded on the territory of various... countries