the situation in ukraine and the countries of the west, and this special operation is in an active phase, that is why we ask you, are the russian police capable of destabilizing the situation in ukraine? yes, no , everything is quite simple on youtube, if you watch us on tv, pick up your smartphone and vote if you think that the russians are capable of shaking the situation in ukraine through ipso (0800-211-381), no (0800-211 -382). all calls to these numbers are free, vote for... at the end of the program we will sum up the results of this vote. i want to introduce today's guests are oleksiy holobutsky, political scientist, political technologist, deputy director of the situation modeling agency. mr. oleksiy, i congratulate you, thank you for being with us today. congratulations. ihor reiterovych, political scientist, head of political and legal programs of the ukrainian center for social development. mr. igor, i congratulate you, thank you for joining the broadcast. congratulations. and volodymyr fesenko, political scientist, chairman of the board of the center of applied political research. penta, mr. volodymyr, i

congratulate you, thank you for being with us today. good p.m. well, since we are asking our viewers and tv viewers about the russian epso, whether the russian epso can shake up the situation and destabilize the situation in ukraine, this is in the context of the statements of the main intelligence department of the ministry of defense of ukraine. i will also ask you whether russia can now create the conditions to shake up and destabilize the situation in ukraine. mr. oleksiy, please. will we still talk about this topic? yes, i suggest, because i want to expand, so to speak, to answer, then i pass to colleagues, mr. igor, well, i think that globally they are unlikely to do it point by point, well , they can have certain influences, unfortunately, we still have anonymous, for example, telegram channels, which are read by a large part of ukrainian citizens, and some theses through these resources they can throw. but

it will not be possible to somehow influence there, for example, the political situation in them, by the way, for another very banal reason, we do not have such a public policy, well, in this, you know, general understanding of this word today, therefore there will be attempts, they will try to do it, but i think that the way they want it, they will definitely not succeed, especially since we have a certain understanding and those bodies that deal with countering this disinformation, and in principle, well, society is also sufficiently prepared. not all, but the vast majority of citizens, they learned, well, for at least two years of a large-scale war, to filter some frank russian propaganda, and not to listen to what they will throw in here through various channels of influence. thank you, mr. volodymyr. i agree with my colleague, to play on certain topics, to use them in one's interests, to weaken unity a little or, let's say, to provoke conflicts, heated conflict discussions on certain topics, yes, it is possible.

they, and by the way, they are now using exactly such tactics, they are taking topics that are already being discussed in ukraine, by the way, not only here, but in poland they are using the topic of the conflict on the border, the conflict of economic interests between ukraine and poland in agrarian issues, and continue to heat up, shake up, scandalize, give , let's say, aggressiveness in this conflict, but in a similar way they... are trying to act in ukraine as well, but in a fundamental, essential dimension, i think that they will not succeed, well, a simple example, because there was a lot conversations last year and now about maidan 3, the so-called maidan, it is impossible to artificially organize it, especially from the outside, yes, but the russians, unfortunately, can play along with conflicts on certain issues. thank you, mr. volodymyr, we will talk about this a little later, about this special operation. about which

the main intelligence department of the ministry of defense of ukraine said today, and i suggest that we start our conversation with putin's statements that russia should receive guarantees from the west, and that he is not against negotiations on the future of ukraine, although it is probably correct to call it about the future of putin himself and guarantees about putin himself, because we are not talking about... guarantees there, which should be provided to the russian federation, which has completely destroyed the entire international legal framework and, in general, all agreements have gone to pieces. mr. oleksiy, who and how he wants to use putin in order to get these guarantees, and in general, does it even make sense to say that after what putin has done to ukraine, that someone will guarantee him something, or to sit down at the negotiating table and bargain. well, you have to understand that i don't know,

putin himself probably doesn't believe that there are any guarantees, an opportunity in the modern world, in principle, yes, well, what guarantees can the west give? the only guarantee of his safety and staying in office until the end is that russia has the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons, well at least yes, yes, that's what they say, all the other international agreements that existed, they are completely destroyed, they are no longer there, we can talk, this , by the way, also applies to us, ah, all this talk about security guarantees that we conclude, no, what are not sound even in... the documents themselves, as a security guarantee, they are the same, well, we have to understand that all this will be checked empirically, that is, theoretically, it all looks very, well, relatively beautiful, yes, but we can understand this only when,

for example, russia collides with some country nato or with some other country, yes, then we will understand that our guarantees have been completely destroyed since the 14th year. and in this way the question of international security is destroyed in general, so i think this is neglecting the problem, putin wants to enter into a certain process that can last for years, so that it is enough for him to, first of all, completely cement his country and that it is in his personal guarantee was that he would leave the kremlin only with his feet forward, so... the direction of the mausoleum, probably, well, you see, today he today he spoke about nuclear weapons, nuclear weapons, and i re-listened, re-read several times , i could not understand the words of the intervention , yes, that is, he will consider the presence of foreign troops, well, specifically, he spoke about

the american troops in ukraine, as an intervention, moreover the intervention is not in ukraine, but the intervention against russia, you understand that he is expanding the zone, well, in principle, he has been demanding all this since the end of the 21st year, yes, to get a zone of influence in the form of ukraine, of course, here without without a doubt, but preferably also eastern europe, i.e to return to the kind of confrontation that existed in the soviet union with the west, this is his dream, he is trying to do everything for this, so to speak, and his hope is that the isolationist positions that are gaining popularity in the united states, in europe , yes, they will finally win there during this year and next year, yes, and then they will simply conclude an agreement between themselves on the distribution of influence, and on this, well, in principle, and then the systems, they will be cemented, there will be

a west, there will be russia with its sphere of influence, china will also be there, so to speak, with its own problems, and putin, well, i think for 20-30 years, he, so to speak, believes that... he guarantees his security, well, but you remembered correctly about these demands of putin, or rather, about putin's blackmail in december 21, when he demanded to return there to almost the spheres of influence as of 1997, when there was still no expansion of nato to the east, but even despite the fact that this blackmail in in principle was not accepted by any side, in which he did not send... force in these diplomatic dispatches, it is meant washington and the countries of the north atlantic alliance, well, nato, and on the contrary, the situation has worsened for putin, no one perceives that someone, well, you understand, i understand, it has simply worsened in what sense, he

stopped the flight entered nato, sweden entered, that these demands of putin were from the very beginning they were completely sucked out of their fingers , about the matter... that a missile from kharkiv reaches moscow in a certain time, and this is how missiles from nato countries arrived, there are countries closer, so to speak, so they arrive faster from finland, now from sweden, well, it's clear that these are all just words, so to speak, he, let's understand it this way, i understand it this way, at least, that his plan, when he seizes it, will one way or another completely destroy ukrainian statehood in various ways, and then this... the question will be, so to speak , stand already, you understand, we are now talking about a situation that is constantly in dynamics, if you don't remember, if you remember, yes, thank god, i did not take part in this, but let's remember the conversations a year ago, so our experts, politicians and so on, at the end

of the year we had to drink some coffee in the crimea and two years ago they were generally talking about a parade in moscow and so on, well, the situation is a little different, and he also analyzes and sees it. and all these problems with the supply of weapons from europe and from america, with money and so on, he thinks that it is playing against him, i am not saying that it is playing against him, but i think that he thinks that it is playing against him and in the end, his task is to destroy the statehood of ukraine in one way or another, when he goes to the borders with poland, in different ways, i am not saying that it will directly be the russian army, yes? perhaps it will be a puppet state under the name of ukraine, but under the complete control of russia, perhaps this plan still remains. and then, then, then it will be possible to talk about whether nato is ready to face this problem in any way. to decide, thank you, mr. oleksiy, mr. igor, to whom and to whom is this proposal

to form security guarantees for russia on washington? well, first of all, it is the united states, of course, because putin believes that it is the united states, it has subjectivity, and accordingly it can be conducted with certain negotiations. in his understanding, to this day, the european union, and even more so ukraine, are not such subjects, although with separate european ones. countries , he is ready to talk, with some european leaders there he is ready to talk, but he believes that they are still in such a, you know, position and somewhat subordinate , well, in relation to washington, so the main addressee was, of course, the united states america, and it seems to me that he tried in this interview, it is enough strange, and in general, questions arise here, why he so suddenly decided to talk with his propagandist once again, why was it... beat, well, there are many different reasons, interesting enough, but it was even,

you know, not so much in the direction of the current american government, as it seemed to me, he is simply setting up opportunities for some kind of further communication with the american elites in general, so look, here i am, i have such proposals, we are ready to consider these proposals, then for some reason he left in some very long reminiscence with about carrots, yes, they are offering some carrots to russia, but they want to have some reinforced concrete guarantees to... by the way, he did not name these guarantees, this also leaves some room for maneuver, because, well, in his understanding, such the guarantee, for example, may not be ukraine joining nato, or the eternal neutral status of ukraine, they raise these issues from time to time, maybe he wants to return to them to some extent, but in general it seemed that this conversation was for him was needed, if only to a greater extent on the eve of the elections, plus as a certain means of mobilizing its electorate somewhere, hence the mention. about nuclear weapons, hence the mention that in principle we are ready to sit down at the negotiation table, but we want

some of our demands there to be secured, to be guaranteed, and we were promised that no one would violate them there, but by the way , with nuclear weapons was very interesting, because it seemed that he even made excuses to some extent and said that we are never going there and did not intend to we are not going to use it, if only they don't attack there. to our sovereign territory and so on, he said that it is in our drafts, but it seems that he may have recently received another message through a closed diplomatic channel, either from delhi or from beijing, perhaps from the two capitals at once, in the sense that he should stop this rhetoric that they have been pumping for the last couple of weeks before this somewhere, well, among their propaganda, among their propagandists about the possibility that it is possible again the use of tactical nuclear weapons there and so on, that's how the news came. that we need to stop this rhetoric because it is unacceptable in the 23rd year india and china

publicly made a statement that what to think, forget about the use of tactical nuclear weapons there, any nuclear weapons at all, it will be a disaster and so on, here it seems that after all , some kind of greeting was conveyed more over there, you know, in such a veiled version, and putin specifically made it clear through an interview that if he had received this hint, he would have taken it to attention and gives it back a little. thank you, mr. igor, mr. volodymyr, putin has an arrest warrant from the international criminal court, that is, his current status is such that he is a suspect, he is a criminal, and for the whole world he was and remains a criminal, and it is clear that in this situation, putin probably he does not imagine that no one will hold any negotiations with him , will not agree on anything, will some time come and the world... will talk about something with putin or will already talk with the new leader of russia, but without putin? well, i would

i didn't take wishful thinking at the moment, but now it's too early to say that no one will negotiate with putin at all, but it's a great pity, but on certain issues, by the way, we will have to deal not with putin but with russia, if only for the to end the war, but have to negotiate another. there simply won't be any, uh, but the west will also maintain certain contacts with russia, in order to prevent a nuclear conflict, uh... and in general to solve certain issues, as they did in the times when there was soviet union, and now with putin, too, from time to time, regarding this interview and, in general, those guarantees that putin spoke about, the interview is part of the election campaign, it is obvious, now is the last week, but at the same time, putin used it for signals to the west, absolutely

i agree with the fact that it is primarily aimed at the usa, this is putin's stereotype. that only the usa can negotiate, only the usa decides everything, and ukraine and europe will only implement, but this stamp remains with putin, he still does not understand that it will not be possible to reach any agreements on ending the war without the consent of ukraine. he still believes that it is possible and necessary to negotiate only with the americans. the question of these so-called guarantees, which putin mentioned, is important. implied? well, based on some publications, as well as information from diplomatic sources, i can say that the following is meant by security guarantees for russia, first of all, it is definitely a topic of public recognition that ukraine will never be in nato . putin sought this before the start of the war against ukraine,

but colleagues mentioned the ultimatum, which nominated put forward russia in the west, first of all the usa and nato. yes, this goal remains. putin wants both ukraine and the west to officially deny that ukraine will never join nato. this goal remains for him. secondly, this is an important point, this is the so-called demilitarization. there are some reports that putin insists, by the way, he insisted on this and when there were negotiations with... insists that in the process of agreeing to end the war , ukraine agrees to a significant limitation of its armed forces, especially there missile weapons, well, all that can harm russia is the reduced number of the army, the reduced number of heavy weapons, missiles and so on,

aviation, so that there are such strict restrictions, plus the creation of demilitarized zones, along the line of demarcation, conventional, as well as along the borders, in fact, this should make us completely defenseless against new russian aggression, and this will be the guarantee that we will be effectively under the control of russia, even if it is, it does not matter what government will be in kyiv, ukraine will always be under the threat of russia, here what he is trying to achieve, but it is completely unacceptable for us and... well, no, never say never, but i think that with a very high probability neither we nor our western partners will consider such demands of putin, in general, whatever - any previous demands from putin's side to start some negotiations, they will be unacceptable, but putin, taking advantage of the fact that there are now, unfortunately,

problems with military aid from the united states, he is now somewhat arrogant and is starting. put forward ultimatums again, and this is already a signal to our western partners if they do not want to lose, if they do not want to look weak in the eyes of putin, then it is necessary to solve the current problems, restore and increase aid to our country. well, while putin actually offers the world to prepare some guarantees or proposals for him, in the verkhovna rada of ukraine. the draft law on mobilization is being prepared for the second reading, today's meeting of the committee on national security and defense did not take place, there were a lot of amendments to this draft law between the first and second reading, as people 's deputy of ukraine yaroslav zheliznyak says, the committee on issues of national security and defense, managed to consider only 10% of the amendments proposed by the deputies,

so according to his forecasts, the law on mobilization will be adopted no earlier than. in a month, we will hear what yaroslav zheleznyak said. it looks like we will pass it only in april, accordingly, in april, there may be a vote there, accordingly, it will come into force already in the middle of may, well, according to the forecast. well, people's deputy of ukraine mykhailo tsymbalyuk said on espresso that despite all the amendments, the law on mobilization still there will be a certain limitation of the rights and freedoms of citizens. let's listen. undoubtedly, the state must regulate these processes, and we, as legislators, must provide mechanisms to state bodies, including law enforcement. to one or another challenge, i emphasize once again that when we talk about mobilization, we must start with those boys and girls who are on the front lines today, they are

a certain part, or most of them, for 2 years without rest, we must think about them, from- because of this , the fighting capacity is lost, the state of health is lost, people need to be restored and instead of directing those people, but i emphasize once again, directing and mobilizing people through proho. of training in training centers for at least three months, the state of health, and these people must clearly know for what period their state will mobilize, mr. oleksiy, the issue of the law on mobilization, is this issue political or, after all , socio-political, as it were did you describe well, of course, this is a social and political issue. this is not a military issue, purely, that is, the military must take advantage of the fruits of lawmaking activities that are usually carried out by the political

leadership, which does not want to bear absolutely any responsibility for the mobilizations, it becomes clear, every day i read which amendments were rejected, which will definitely not be accepted, and the question arises, i am not here now, so to speak , i do not stand for or against the law on mobilization, i simply state that... so that it does not turn out that the law on strengthening mobilization will simply be a law on the introduction of several norms, but new clarifications and certain guarantees, so to speak, this it is also possible to be good, but it seems to me that it will not solve the problem of mobilization, and everything is clear here, absolutely, sociology says that the ukrainian people are in favor of... for voluntary mobilization with monetary motivation, well, not only with motivation, so that in principle it absolutely contradicts the very

concept of mobilization, the authorities see this and do not want any responsibility, i think that i do, i recently met, here not recently, yesterday i met with my military friend, he is a military man, so to speak, he graduated from the military... department by accident became a volunteer and immediately had to leave the 22nd year , so to speak, for an officer's position at the front, and he tells, well, he constantly thinks about the topic, and somewhere really, so to speak, to take people to replace those who have been fighting for two years, and some some have been fighting there since the 19th and 18th years, and he sees that a possible way out will be with... syrskyi offered a way out to zelensky, so with this audit, he claims, my friend, he claims that a huge number of professional soldiers

is at those positions at the front, which they should do, and this is what a lot of such people do, who, in principle, have never graduated from non-military universities, nothing, well, they do not have the appropriate education there, respectively. this, and perhaps under these guarantees that silskyi will find, well, he talked about this in his interview, so that they will conduct an audit, find people, and the authorities will delay the adoption of the law on mobilization as much as possible. thank you, mr. oleksiy, mr. igor, in your opinion, would it be possible to pass this draft law as an urgent matter, if submitted this is president zelenskyi personally. and marked it as urgent to mobilize the parliament, to vote this bill very quickly, to make it a law, and accordingly to remove all these issues, because all the same

, there is tension in society about what this bill will be, and what the restrictions will be, and will there not be these restrictions, and what, and what will happen, well, of course, if the president took upon himself the political responsibility that already hangs on him according to the constitution and submitted this bill himself, or more actively was involved, for example, in the submission and consideration of this draft law, i think we would see a slightly different picture, the deputies would take a more responsible attitude to work on it, that is, there would not be these wild interruptions that we currently see in work of the verkhovna rada, they are, in my opinion, completely unacceptable, especially during the war, and it was possible to adopt this law there a long, long time ago, but here the question is that we would have to share political responsibility and take it upon ourselves, well, i don't see especially big political... pluses, yes, here to a large extent the negatives are political, that is, to take on part of these negatives, the banks decided that they don't need it, and the people's deputies, they should drink this cup

to the bottom, as they say, right? and adopt this law, accordingly, all negativity must go to them. by the way, i will not be surprised that even if it is voted there in april, the president can also veto it, indicate that it is necessary to change one or two positions that will be there, well, they will remain controversial, the deputies will change and the president will then get some bonuses for himself against the background of this. well, the problem is simply that this is bad for the country, because the situation is seriously dragging on. and one more point, we forget that, unfortunately,... consideration of this law fell on the classic parliamentary crisis that we have today, i do not see , for example, a coalition in the verkhovna rada, unfortunately, there is none, and this, in principle, also greatly affects the speed and, in principle, the quality of consideration and adoption of this law, but the lack of a coalition, mr. volodymyr, is the same does not cancel the situation that exists in ukraine, and it is clear that no matter what political crisis there is in

the parliament or? the parliamentary crisis within the verkhovna rada, it is still necessary to resolve the issue of the war and sufficiently quickly, what do you think hinders the resolution of these issues, and in particular regarding the law on mobilization? well, i'm not sure that if this bill were submitted by the president, it would radically change the situation, well, let's be honest, in society there is a very ambivalent, ambiguous, contradictory attitude towards the bill. mobilization, a before mobilization, let's be honest, a large part, i don't want to say now in some absolute categories, there are statistical ones and so on, but a large part of our fellow citizens , remaining patriots in words, in reality do not want to fight, do not want their loved ones to go to the front, it must be admitted, firstly, secondly, unfortunately, not only

the government, but also... the position is not aware of all the risks and problems of prolonging the situation with mobilization, if, for example, after the presidential elections in russia, god, but a new wave of mass mobilization will begin in russia, and there is, well, let's say this, certain information, assumptions about this, we simply will have no other way out, how to carry out a mobilization, so you asked me what it is, political or socio-political , this is a state need. this is the need for national self-defense, it may just happen that there will be no other way out, and the question is not that there is a need for rotation, it is necessary, it is necessary to give rest to people who are on the front lines, but now there can be no demobilization, therefore that well, let's say so, among russians and yes, the numerical advantage at the front, yes, we need to restore the situation of balance, regarding the consideration of

400 amendments in the verkhovna rada. where do yaroslav's forecasts come from, i talked to him, and i read his posts about the situation, he is good there, well, let's say so , quite, let's say so, he describes in detail what the situation is around this draft law, which the committee is considering, but all this must be summarized, real the position of, let's say, at least two opposition factions, it's already obvious that they won't vote for this bill, maybe they won't be against it, but... they will not support it in whatever form it may be, there are approximately 170 votes for this draft law, plus there are some majoritarians, maybe some, well, deputies will vote for the vote, in principle there were 243 votes in the first reading, and chances are that that it can be approved is also possible, but in order for these 400 amendments to be summarized and worked out , well, at least until the end of march, the committee will have to work on this e.

a technology was used, which at one time was used against agrarian reform, land reform and some others, let's say yes, reform bills , and against mobilization, so the problem here is not in the government, unfortunately, it is partly in the public mood, to which specific politicians are adapting, and both in the pro-government factions of some politicians and the opposition, and therefore now it is necessary for everyone to realize that this is a state interest, a state issue. while we are discussing this, the british press is writing about mobilization, citing ministry of defense sources, that the law on mobilization provides for the replacement of 330,000 soldiers who are at the front, the new law on mobilizamine no, i am quoting to you what the financial times writes: the new law on mobilization, which should be put to a vote in

the parliament on march 31, has to... update the legislative base of ukraine on...