24 hours a day, goodbye, will ukraine receive money from frozen russian assets? will europe finally dare to develop a scheme to confiscate russian billions, and if so, when? let's analyze in today's issue of bbc ukraine, i'm olga palomaryuk. the issue of the transfer of frozen russian assets in ukraine is not new. they have been talking about this for months, but now the situation seems to have moved from a standstill. today , a two-day summit began in brussels, among the key topics of which is a plan to use profits from frozen russian assets. billions of euros want to transfer ukraine, but it is not so

easy, because for some countries the issue of transferring funds is extremely acute. and here, first of all , we are talking about hungary, which traditionally blocks sanctions against russia and opposes the confiscation of assets. therefore, the european union is currently looking for a scheme on how to transfer money to ukraine's needs, and most importantly - how much. well, one of the options is to transfer to ukraine not the assets themselves, but the profits from them, which is approximately 3 billion euros annually. this money offers a section. 90% of the proceeds will go to the european peace fund, they will be directed to support ukraine, the remaining 10% will go to strengthening the power of the ukrainian defense industry, and this is what eu foreign policy chief jose borel said about it. there are 360 ​​million assets of the central bank of russia frozen, and we discussed for a week how to use the income from them. so far, we are not talking about the capital itself, but about the excess profits received from these assets.

due to higher interest rates. i hope that in the near future we can come to an agreement and replace banknotes with weapons, because your soldiers do not fight with banknotes, they need physical weapons, they need physical means to protect your people. and what do they say about it in russia? putin's press secretary piskov threatened european countries with courts for decades if they decide to transfer interest from russian assets to ukraine. if so. the initiative will entail damage to the european image and economy, and indeed, supporting ukraine costs tens of billions a year, and while the united states is delaying the allocation of financial aid, it is funds from russian assets could help significantly. also, the transfer of money to ukraine could demonstrate to vladimir putin the unity and determination of the west, and whether europe is ready for such a step, analyzes the expert of the royal institute of international relations, timothy ash. the total amount

of russian assets frozen in the west is about 330 billion dollars, this is the russian government's cash stored in the west, ukraine needs about 100 billion dollars a year to finance it. unfortunately, 60 billion was stuck in congress, and now ukraine has appeared in the financing a huge hole, so western governments should use the underlying assets that would help ukraine close this hole and finance its military needs and buy the necessary ones. weapons for defense and victory, therefore the decision of the eu is not a victory, but a trifle. this has already happened in history, for example, the first war in the persian gulf. the assets of the central bank of iraq were then confiscated by the international community and transferred to kuwait. the same was done with the central bank of afghanistan. yes, it can disrupt immunity of a sovereign state, but this immunity applies only when the country acts in accordance with international law, and russia clearly does not. she invaded ukraine, started wars there.

crimes, possible genocide, so the moral argument for seizing assets and transferring them to ukraine is quite strong. now this 100 billion bill is essentially being paid by western taxpayers, while russian taxpayers' money is stuck in western banks, our governments have no desire to withdraw it, if we don't give money to ukraine, they won't have enough funds to to finance its defense, the country will lose the war and this will affect the whole of europe, tens of millions of ukrainians will flee. to the west, we will have to spend a lot more money on our own defense, maybe one or 2% of gdp, that's an extra hundreds of billions of dollars a year, so it will create enormous social and political instability in europe. yes, too, what part of russian assets can ukraine count on. we talk about it with investment banker and financial expert serhiy fursa on the phone. i congratulate you, please

explain what amount we may be talking about, for what can ukraine count? congratulations, well, for now , what can ukraine count on? er, because there is no solution, and actually, the amount of profit itself, it differs from year to year, last year these assets generated 4 billion euros, by 2024 the expectation is that they will generate 5-6 billion euros there, and so on they will change from year to year, but the plus-minus amount is like this, this is the order of the numbers, so why then is it about 3 billion, can you explain, this amount can vary? look, for sure, when they speak about 3 billion, they are talking about what was generated in 2023, when these assets brought in about 4 billion euros, a little more than a billion euros have already been spent, because where does this money come from, it is

generated by the belgian company euroclear, and this company has already paid income tax and partially financed further with this money. without the aid to ukraine, what remained that was not subject to income tax was approximately 3 billion. and in fact, in 2023, these 3 billion were generated, and they have not yet distributed and can be distributed in 2024, and can be sent to help ukraine, for example, or the company, again , eurocli says that they have huge legal risks now due to the actions of russia, and it asks to keep these funds. hey on the accounts , so that it would be a kind of buffer for future court decisions, so thank you for the clarification , now it is clear, well, european leaders quite often argue about the purposes for which this money should be directed, either for

restoration or for purchase weapons, why do you think it is causing such a debate, sergey, if you can hear us, i can hear you, why is there a debate, well, because in europe. debates arise in the union on any occasion. plus , we see that there is a small opposition in the form of the former austria-hungary, austria and hungary, as close and close partners of russia , oppose the financing of military equipment, well, because probably russia is against it and is trying to influence through them. that's why there are different ideas, and, for example, today a new very fresh idea appeared from the americans, who proposed to issue bonds. for 50 billion dollars, the provision of which should be the next cash flows for the same assets, and the american proposal assumes that ukraine can already receive 50 billion, for example, and finance primarily defense

needs, so there are various options, and we are still did not come to any consensus, of course, mr. sergey, please stay in touch, i suggest listening to... the opinion of a london expert, why european leaders hesitate every time the question of frozen russian assets in european banks arises, and here, as it explains maryna myrun, she is a researcher at the department of defense studies at king's college london. here we are talking about 10 billion, maybe more, maybe less, depending on what decision will be made in the end and what part of the assets will be used. what is the problem so far? besides what we have to do. with a legal gray zone, because in the case of the precedent, which was the first war in the persian gulf in 91, then the decision to confiscate iraqi state assets was made by the un security council. the problem now is that europe risks scaring others away countries that keep assets in europe. this is

problematic from this legal point of view, but also from the point of view of purchasing weapons. in the sense that the release of these funds and their transfer to ukraine is not at all... the rapid arrival of weapons. the essence of the problem is how to convert funds into actual military equipment. the european defense industry is in hibernation, it is not transferred to military rails and is waiting for the governments of european countries to sign long-term contracts. for example, for the manufacture of one anti-aircraft system defense takes two years. it covers different components that come from different parts of the world. and due to the crisis of global chains , both the time and the cost of production are increasing, and this is a problem. yes, we listened to the expert, she talked about the problems, and sergey, in your opinion, what can and should ukraine, the ukrainian authorities, do to speed up this process? the ukrainian authorities cannot

do anything to speed up this process. even so briefly, visits, negotiations, the presence of ukrainian delegations, cannot have an effect on the process? no, it cannot affect the process, because again, decisions are made outside ukraine, decisions are made based on the risks that are for the european union, and therefore no influence. ukraine is not ready to make this decision. okay, that's it. and what do you think will be the fate of the actual assets, and i mean the same 280 billion of the eu central bank, so can they, for example , be directed to reparations after the war? well, again, most likely until the european union dares to confiscate these assets, they will be forever frozen, because again, reparation is like that. when russia itself agrees to them. we hardly expect that

russia will do this in the coming years and decades. and therefore, most likely, they will simply be frozen and bring a certain income for years, and ukraine can still claim this income. again, unless the european union changes its mind under the pressure of all kinds of factors, whether it's just a lack of money or money from the united states. so far for the european union. the confiscation of these assets is a huge risk, yes to them says the european central bank, and they are afraid to take these risks, so in the coming years it will simply lie frozen, and maybe with decades, decades, yes, and we literally still have time to talk with you, who should make decisions about it, who is responsible for everything well, here's the last word, well, the european union, you know how difficult decisions are made there, they all have to take them one by one, so since this is a decision of the european union. then the final european commission is there, but all the bodies of the european union must speak in favor.

thanks for the conversation, analysis, serhii fursa, stay in touch with us. thank you very much. well, they no longer come to europe, they provide assistance to ukraine in order to delay a potential war with russia as long as possible. and more and more often there are statements about the transfer of the european economy to military lines, analyzes the senior research associate of the atlantic council. we say we want peace, but that means we have to accept the rather inconvenient fact that we have to run our economies, our societies differently, because if we don't do, we will not be able to support ukraine as it needs it, and we ourselves may face aggression from russia and other countries. this is an economy that is really set on producing things, necessary. armed forces to defend the country, or in this case to defend ukraine.

and one of the problems we faced when it came to supplies to ukraine and actually the efforts of western governments to support our armed forces is that they can spend money, they can allocate money, they can sign contracts for defense manufacturers , but if arms manufacturers lack the manpower to produce equipment and ammunition, then not so much... much will be done, so the 2% debate that is going on in various western countries is meaningless, if we don't have the people to produce the equipment that we're going to buy for that 2% of gdp, and so the wartime economy gives any government more power to incentivize companies and workers in the case of making that production work, and that's that russia already does, and that is why russia produces more weapons for ukraine than... so, whether the european leaders will be able to reach an agreement on

the transfer of funds to ukraine remains a question, as serhiy fursa said earlier, the decision on the confiscation of russian assets may drag on for decades. we will definitely follow the events and will write about this on our website in the traditional bbc.ua way, stay tuned. and also subscribe to our pages in social networks, so as not to miss the most important news, we are on facebook, instagram, also on tiktok, on youtube you can watch our news release, comment, we always carefully read all comments, and we will see you on the air, as always, tomorrow at 9 p.m., good luck and take care!

according to a new and already good tradition at 9:15 p.m., the project velikiy lviv will start , including... on the air of the tv channel, we welcome everyone, those who visited us to listen to our conversations, you know, the tradition is good, but for now the topics , unfortunately, are not as good as we would like, we have to raise in our studio the full-scale aggression of the russian federation continues, we continue to compete for our victory and in our studio, together with the military, analysts, we analyze all

the events that take place both on the front line and in the international community, because our future victory directly depends on it. good evening. we congratulate everyone who joined us, and velikiy lviv speaks on our youtube and on the espresso tv channel. introducing the guests who will discuss with us live today, for two hours, everything that is happening in the world, in ukraine, what fate awaits us, and what we we can do to make this fate victorious. andrii andreykiv, candidate of legal sciences, military-political expert, member. club of ukraine, lecturer at the department of comparative law, faculty of international relations , taras shevchenko kyiv national university. good evening. oleksandr rogoh, colonel, deputy commander of the 45th separate artillery brigade of the armed forces of ukraine. good evening. vitaly pyasets is with us, callsign stokhid, senior sergeant, deputy chairman of the sergeants' council of the 93rd separate mechanized brigade kholodny yar armed forces of ukraine. iryna burban,

kovalenko, enlisted soldier of the 82nd separate airborne assault brigade of the armed forces of ukraine. public and political figure, journalist, mykola veresin with us today, ihor vdovychyn, doctor of political sciences, professor of the ivan franko national university of lviv. mrs. irina, before we start analyzing what is happening, when i introduce you, yes, you know, it is quite unusual to see an intendant woman, a serviceman, but not just a serviceman, but also a representative of the airborne assault brigade, that is, she. where is the most hell, well, i don’t know, but they say that the infantry are always the first, so what, but then we are equal, because now, in fact, all branches of the army are infantry, and well, there are actually many girls in the paratroopers, it’s just that we are especially we are not putting ourselves forward, we are being protected , let's get to the latest statements, we also had

a nato representative in ukraine today, but the last thing... that is currently burning in the information circle, syrskyi said that it was possible to stabilize the situation in the east, after the russians took the ruins of avdiivka, about it is also worth saying, but we all understood that avdiivka was a natural border from which it was convenient to hold the defense, after all, avdiivka was held since the 14th year, now stabilization. mr. andreykiv, what can you say about how important it was for us and how difficult it was to stabilize after the russians managed to seize the ruins of avdiyivka by all the truths and lies? it looks like we are entering the spring-summer phase of the war. combat operations on the territory of ukraine are distinguished by the fact

that one phase is never similar to another. everyone the stage of military confrontation is characterized by the use of various types. weapons, appropriate tactics and some of the latest technologies. i so suspect that the events that will unfold now, they will not differ from the previous stages of military clashes. the russians definitely use new tactics, they use new forces and means, in particular, this was done in avdiivka, when they passed through the sewer connections and actually came out behind our troops, this only means that the russians are learning, the enemy without... is not directly it will not remain plain and simple, but the stabilization of the front shows one thing, that even in the absence of financial and military support in the volumes that existed before, our armed forces find forces, mechanisms and resources, and optionally, optionally, they manage to limit how the supply of fuel

-lubricants, transportation of relevant ammunition by destroying logistics chains. this is the first and second destruction, so to speak, of the infrastructure for the production of combat equipment and directly necessary materials to ensure its functioning troops, that is, ukraine has learned to achieve success and stabilize even under conditions of limited resources and direct foreign support. it is believed that, and nato representatives also said about it today, by the way. that ukraine has real capacities for the application of new innovative technologies, and we know that certain products that were created were presented directly in your studio. by ukrainians on the territory of ukraine, by our specialists in it technologies, this directly includes ground and air drones, and stabilization

front, it seems to me that the first actually took place under the conditions of adaptation of our troops to those forms and means that the russians are also changing, the second is actually the regrouping of troops and the third is the use of the latest technologies, this is actually we are moving to the phase of unmanned warfare, where... actually the ultimate fate of success or failure will be decided no longer by tanks, artillery complexes, or directly by traditional conduct of defensive or offensive actions, this is a war of the latest technologies, and the one who can apply them faster will be the one who will succeed, ukraine in it shows very good results. mr. oleksandr, i have a question for you, well, in continuation, what we talked about with andriy andreykov, as you think, this kriti has passed. the moment when, well, when, you know, and everyone , and the entire ukrainian society was in such, well, not the best psychological state, the russians were advancing, they prepared

large reserves, they finally succeeded in something, there were some advances, and everyone was afraid that the front line may even break through somewhere, or is this the phase of offensive actions of the russian federation, at least in this temporary the gap, you can call it the one that has already been covered... well, the situation is as follows, er , you see, somewhere around more than 90% of our personnel, who are in our brigade, who are still fighting, for more than two years , these are highly motivated people who came following the call of the heart, who came voluntarily as an army, and therefore they know what they are fighting for. they know what they are fighting for and they know how to use these new weapons that we have now, and of foreign production, which have increased our

capabilities simply by many times, and therefore, well, i have there is no doubt that we have done enough to stop this influx in kyiv region, kharkiv region and kherson region, and what is the current situation with shells, because there was a lot of talk about the fact that... and avdiivka could be held, if, in particular , our western partners had helped enough, including with artillery ammunition, after that the statements of the president of the czech republic had already appeared that the supplies had been found, in short, there were none , and suddenly they did not come as much as needed, we would have liked , so that there are as many as you need, what is the situation now, well, you understand that i can't tell you a lot right now, but the point is that... that we have something to fight for, and that's good. vitaly, this is the most important thing you could have said. absolutely , that is, there is a lot that we cannot say, and we understand it, we emphasize that we work live, we are the same and

everything we do, in particular, is being watched by our enemy, and everything, everything, is being analyzed what has been said, but the primary purpose of these broadcasts is to speak to ukrainians, to say what they need to hear, to help them in some way figure it out, give them information to think about. because it is also important, we urge our audience to analyze what they hear, draw their own conclusions, and be as involved as possible in the processes that are currently taking place in ukraine. vitaly pisetskyi, you have a word. you and i spoke before the broadcast and even recorded a little more interview, it will be on the youtube channel says velikiy lviv, i will announce it for our audience. speaking of which, you know, generalize at what stage you feel we are now we are what kind of war is this with us, because you have experience from 2014 until now. well , unequivocally, we are now in such a phase, well

, difficult, to put it mildly, as you and i talked about the fact that there are problems with the motivation of not personnel, those who are already involved in the armed forces, but there are problems with motivation of the civilian population and understanding. er consequences, god forbid, i will lose this war, that is, people do not understand what awaits them in the future, if they do not join the armed forces, in one way or another, or by direct service or help, that's all of us one thing, in my opinion, despite, for example, the assurances of our western partners, we still balance, well, this is my, this is not my position. unit in which i am serving, this is my feeling of what is happening now, the enemy definitely has no intention of occupying, if not the whole, then

more. part of our country, ugh, and i think that we need the time that we will have now, maybe somewhere allocated, when it is possible, after the avdiiv offensive in the avdiiv direction, maybe there will be some such minimal, some kind of pause, to use it for the construction of fortifications, because there will be one more rush, it is clear that as soon as the land dries up and the so-called green area turns green, there will be... another powerful rush, and it must be held back, but we will still have another this year one jerk, unequivocally , unequivocally, in my opinion, this is my personal feeling, this is my opinion, it is not worth anyone to relax, unequivocally, that is why people still need to get involved, not disperse all this hate around tsk, around mobilization, around that people are not untrained fighters

thrown into battle, and they die. in consequence of this, and to get involved, because the price will be paid much more than it has been paid up to this day. yes, i, you know, today i spoke with the former minister pavel sheremet, he does not know the numbers, they are an economist, not numbers, the minister of economy, once, yes, he says, i say, you know, i am such an optimist more- less, he says , you just understand that optimists live 8 years longer than pessimists, so i advise everyone to be... optimistic, about me, me, for example, there is a lot about it, i was here and in this studio , but, from february, in february, a kind of wave of despair or some kind of suspicion began that something might be bad, i did not see any signs of big problems, except for the alarmists, for some reason, maybe i was not looking in the right direction, or maybe i am an optimist and will live for 8 more years , than pessimists, i just

do not see. i saw some information at the level of conversations and something seemed to me that these conversations were welcomed in the kremlin somewhere, something seemed to me like that, well, i am not an intelligence officer, i do not understand where they come from, but i had the feeling that the operation, about which here a lot of people say in ukraine that if this is ipso, it means that it is being prepared there, and i think that they clapped their hands there when this despondency appeared in the ukrainian media... mass information, that they say there are problems that are not so incurable , it seems to me that on february 24 , 2022, it was much worse than today , for some reason it seems to me, and then there were much more problems, now there is a mobilized society, which was not talked about, and maybe it is truthfully criticized at the time, definitely mobilized armed forces, precisely organized

institutions, which if they were not... not criticized, i am not happy either, but the parliament is working, the president is working, the banks are working, i learned today that in turkey, which is not at war, this bank discount rate today reached 50%, well there are 14 of us and we are at war for the third year, so this is what i can say, what is missing, something is missing there, i just looked at the american sources, these patriots, whom ... we are very much waiting for and want them to shoot at russia more , the pentagon officially stated that they lack 70 patriots in the pentagon, no enough, they would like to beat them more, that's why i think that during the war, it doesn't happen that everything is enough, well, because it seems to me, at the moment when everything is enough, maybe the military will correct me, then our flag will fly over over the kremlin, if we have as many tanks as...

generals and guns and ammunition and the whole world, well then, why don't we win the war, well we will win, that's why i think that it is if here i have complete optimism, i have pessimism because of the elections in the russian federation, because despite all the discussions surrounding these elections, you can actually say that as a result of 88%, one way or another, well... some sociologists say that they are 10% less, okay, 78%, support, support putin's policies, and these the elections were just right, if the direction of these elections was to show the world that i don't need to be told, putin says so in his mind, or in his voice, but for me, out of 146 million, 80% support me, and...