planning, and this is important, shows that the country will live, the country will develop, the country will be in the european union in the future, but they need to quickly decide on these profits, so that they go to the emirate, that is, to the most necessary goals now, and our the government must also form it for them, well, the government, i mean, in our case it is the office of the president, and therefore we need to act... but talk about the next way of using those assets that are russian, well, so-called frozen, in belgium , it seems that in luxembourg it is somewhere around 206 billion, here is less in america, by the way, than in europe, so the ice is off the chair, but we need to move more dynamically, and the head of the nato military committee, rob bauer, who was at the kyiv security forum, warned against... excessive pessimism about the ability

ukraine to win the war and called for further support for kyiv, let's hear what rob bauer said. although the whole world was probably too optimistic in 2023, we must not make the same mistakes again and fall into excessive pessimism in the 24th year. pessimists are not win wars. and to the fact that... based on the facts, it can be stated that there is every reason to be confident in ukraine's ability to achieve success. all you need is our help. nato allies and many other countries around the world are providing ukraine with unprecedented support, and this is bringing real results, but ukraine needs even more support. well, it is clear that rob bauer is the chairman of the nato military committee, well , that is. an official of the north atlantic alliance,

and obviously, regarding future support, regarding the future of ukraine in the north atlantic alliance, this is a question that concerns the leaders of the countries that are part of the north atlantic alliance, but what do you think robabaer's words mean, that more support should be given to ukraine, and that nato can give more of this support, what kind of support is more can get ukraine? well, i think that after all, everything that is expressed, you say, there is an official, well, not exactly, admiral bauer, he has a prepared position, it is agreed, it is a political position, he stated it, by the way, in the same place on kyivskyi nato secretary general jen stoltenberg spoke at the online security forum, he said even more, yes... for sure, so the statements are good,

i spoke with admiral bauer, he, well , in himself, you know, he is not always a military man, he commanded successfully ships, he has traveled a lot on his own path of such simple real involvement in military operations, that's why these military people, they are more specific, but it's all politics, in politics we need to implement what they say. and turn into real things, what can nato do? nato can do little actually. nato is the same nato forces that used to be called rapid reaction forces, it's only a few tens of thousands, and that's it. now they are training, there are spanish helicopters, there is the first polish tank brigade, and there, it seems, there are also the british who are leading it, and that's all. sia only on the ground, plus aviation, plus

ships. it is not such a powerful force that will turn the tide of war. that is why we are not talking about nato. nato can help us with the means they have. they have a partial influence on intelligence data from such reconnaissance aircraft. in they have, for example, additional opportunities for demining, assistance there in such humanitarian and military directions, that is, these things. can be strengthened, and it will be done, and we are talking about nato countries. nato countries are a different story, precisely nato countries, in the conditions of an attack on nato, assemble their forces and jointly defend themselves. that is why we need nato's position to be important, but it is important that it turns into active actions, even more active by each of nato's members. and one more point, nato will never exist.

uh, if we were to introduce troops there, nato troops on the territory of ukraine, but i want to say one thing, at the same time, some nato countries do not forbid them. to take a more active part in this kind of presence, so in this case i perceived it, listening there directly to these speeches, as a feeling that more active steps should be taken, and this is already understood in nato, and in washington, and in paris, and in berlin, you just have to keep up with putin, because... frankly speaking, he was given, how it happened is a separate story, i don’t even want to delve into it, but putin was de facto given six months to offensive actions, and what we are seeing now is the result of slackening of the activity

of ukraine's aid, support, aid was provided, and the usa provided, and a package of 300 million, but the aid that would change the opposition war into a maneuverable one. on the one that frees the territories, deoccupation, there was no such thing, putin got his chance of superiority, i think that it is ending, and i hope that the next swing, it will go so far that we will no longer have to discuss the issue of delaying with help , still, i think the understanding that this year is still critical, it comes, here i will tell you, just a few months ago... they called the nato country may face russia or russia will provoke in 5-8 years german defense minister pistorius, then it was statements of 2-3 years, at first 5 years, then two or three, now german intelligence is 2026, and i claim that it can be even earlier, if

ukraine is not strengthened, and this understanding is coming to them, but is there, is there this understanding is not only in germany, forgive me for interrupting you, but also in the united states states of america, which now... can't come to the aid of ukraine in the congress? well, in the usa, unfortunately, also this soap opera , which was supposed to be a heroic saga, but turned into a soap opera, they will pull more, and it is very important, you should not blame someone alone, there is a separate group, republicans, democrats, it is a joint the result is a joint result, and in this result there is, in fact, even a ukrainian one. share that we did not show the white house to our partners, how can you lendlease put the table apply, how can you replay here jointly, having signed such bilateral agreements , well, it has already gone back and lendlease is offered again, loans are offered again, and time has already passed, so i think that i think that it is already

visible that it is still going to some kind of solution, one way or another , they will drag on for a few more weeks, it already looks like nothing will happen before april 9, and there are still two weeks, but... the main thing in these conditions is, first, america can still help ukraine now, they compensated in many ways, denmark, norway , the netherlands, estonia, the baltic countries, have done, now we will see what france, president macron, what will he bring specifically to kyiv, i really want olaf scholz , so that somehow his correct statements regarding the assessment of russia turn into correct decisions on some, well, important aspects, including missiles, which we are very ... it is necessary, so i think that after all, from this moment, when everyone thought that it was all, ukraine could no longer stand, something must be done, putin will lose it here again, and it will be, unfortunately, now try to press again,

try again in different ways, so-called peacekeepers, there are mediators, they are already drawing some buffer zones on the map of ukraine, there are already shadow... negotiations, i believe that all this will not increase, and it is very important for us to prepare for the fall in the coming months in order to achieve our goals. thank you, mr. valery, for the conversation, it was valery chaly, diplomat, politician, ambassador extraordinary plenipotentiary, former ambassador of ukraine to the united states of america, friends, we are working live on the espresso tv channel, as well as on our youtube and facebook platforms throughout our entire we are conducting a survey, we are asking you about whether ukraine should strike russia's critical infrastructure, the interim results of our tv poll, the poll on tv, 96% yes, 4% no, we

also have it on youtube, the poll continues, 97 % yes, 3%, no. glory to ukraine, dear tv viewers, on espresso tv channel, west studio program. we will analyze the most important events of this week and, of course, we will try to predict what the following weeks will bring us, our guests today, american diplomat matthew bryza and famous political scientist andriy piontkovskyi. our first guest is matthew bryza, former adviser to the united states secretary of state, former director of european and eurasian affairs at the us national security council. glory to ukraine, mr. ambassador, i congratulate you. glory to heroes. but the difficult situation in the united states, we understand, the negotiations are still going on, we recently had a rather strange emissary,

senator lynsey graham, come to us, so we understand that he made what is popularly called a trade offer, but in any case he did not brought an assurance from the american congress that the issue of providing us with macroeconomic assistance will be resolved, and we understand that now it is a matter of life and death for ukraine. the situation unfolds within the framework of the us governmental and legal system, where the great power of the us congress lies in its authority to determine the distribution of funds, in particular for the executive branch of government. therefore, when the president makes a request , either for the annual budget or for a specific additional program, such as aid to ukraine, congress must approve it. linz graham has long supported aid to ukraine, its independence, and from. however, as a politician, he has evolved from challenging

donald trump in the primary election to becoming one of his staunchest supporters. graham admits that trump prefers not just to provide aid to ukraine, but to formalize it as a loan. trump suggested, and graham acknowledged, that the loan may never be repaid. the interest rate is likely to be. provided during the second world war, according to the lenlis law, is significant some of which was never repaid by recipient countries such as great britain, the soviet union, china and other allies. thus, calling aid a loan is such a political tactic. in the end, it will still function as an aid, but by calling it a loan, it is for ... a small faction of extreme republicans in the house of representatives, who are blocking the vote by threatening to remove speaker

michael johnson from his position, and johnson, fearing to lose his role, prevents voting. however, it is expected that voting will take place in the near future. when we talk about our ukrainian fossils and the visit of linsigram, who starts talking about help from the united states, a certain feeling of what is possible creeps in. someone, someone, i don't know, there is a deep state, a deep state, american, would like to solve issues related to minerals in this way, well, i don't know, minerals in exchange for large-scale aid, here we are talking about specific environments in the united states, maybe i'm wrong no, this theory works propaganda to me. perhaps the russians are behind the fact that it is the current subject of discussion in ukraine. the united states government has no interest in supplying itself with natural resources from anywhere but the united states. the us government is trying

to encourage other countries to allow us companies to extract oil, natural gas and other minerals on fair terms. in addition, it promotes the global extraction of natural minerals to meet the needs of the world economy. in fact, i'd like them to think twice as strategically as you suggest. instead, a very narrowly partisan political struggle is taking place in washington. between those who support donald trump in the house of representatives, seeking to show unwavering support , and the rest of the country, essentially the population of the united states, which wants ukraine to receive aid and recognizes that ukraine needs it. in other words, no matter how important ukraine is for the us in strategic terms, it is not the main foreign policy issue for biden now. his priority concern is about conflict. israel with gaza and related houthi attacks on shipping in the red sea, which could

significantly affect the world economy and tarnish the image of biden, who is campaigning against donald trump. however, the most pressing issue concerning the rest of the world in us politics is the border with mexico. there is currently a complex debate in which republicans accuse biden of insufficient border control. especially now during the crisis in haiti. washington fears another significant wave migrants from haiti who will head to the southern border. that's why this question is a question. number one on biden's campaign agenda at the moment. ukraine is really important, but this is definitely not about some kind of deep state conspiracy, it's just a short-sighted pre-election policy of the usa, which prevents the allocation of aid to ukraine. yes, mr. ambassador, well, in any case, we understand that conspiracy theory is a very convenient tool for political experts and for journalists,

well, in order to, so to speak, consider various additional options, problems, but in any. right now, in the dry balance , we have extremely positive signals from the president of the united states, extremely positive signals from pentagon chief lloyd austin, a lot of extremely positive signals, but the question is not resolved, and that could mean that maybe, i don't know whether another emissary has completed his mission, and the united states has received extremely specific threats from the kremlin, we understand that the process is ongoing in europe, but this process is still not can solve all the necessary tasks facing our state, because russia is entering a new, additional, even more serious phase of the war. you're right, when there were threats from putin to use tactical nuclear weapons in ukraine, bill burns, the head of the cia,

former ambassador to russia, went to moscow and explained to president putin that if russia were to ... take such a step, it would have serious consequences. military consequences for russian forces. to me, this meant that if putin were to use tactical nuclear weapons, the united states the states would attack russian forces using conventional means, but i don't know if that would be the case. this is just what reliable news sources like the washington post have been reporting. i agree with you that the signals coming from general austin or president biden about providing aid to ukraine are positive. national security advisor jake salevan was visiting kyiv the other day, and it was at this time that secretary of state blinken headed to egypt to try to broker a cease-fire in israel's war against hamas. so the biden administration is trying to make it clear that the united states is with ukraine, the united states is sending its second-most important

foreign policy official, the national security adviser, to kyiv, while pro... the us diplomat of the day is going to cairo. as graham told linca while in kyiv, he is more confident than ever that a political solution will be found to help ukraine. the problem is that ukraine does not have time to wait. so, unfortunately, one of the greatest weaknesses of our american political system is that a group of extremes ideological players in one chamber of our parliament, can block what almost everyone else wants. certainly. most american citizens approve of aid to ukraine, and as far as i understand, most members of congress also give the green light to aid to ukraine. unfortunately, we have to live with this problem all the time in the united states because of the inefficient governance, because of how the rules of our democratic system are set up. but i think we're getting closer to the point where the aid

will be appropriated by congress, and we'll see what ukraine is finally getting more of what it needs. putin recently reappointed himself to the post of president, and we understand that he has to crown himself with, i don't know, the cap of ivan the terrible until he is completely happy. on the other hand, we understand that one or another so-called negotiating moment is brewing in the current situation. this is how we understand that now, in this negotiating moment, if it really will be, russia feels much stronger than it did a year ago. on the other hand, certain processes are ongoing, and we have two tracks. one track is called geneva, so in geneva is trying to form a big conference that would be devoted to the so- called peace formula. on the other hand , we understand that the russians will not be there, but the chinese will be there as observers. in the last couple of months, the special representative of china has traveled all over the european union, meeting with all possible

representatives of various authorities. well, i would like to analyze together with you what this so-called... geneva format and the second track, which will most likely be formed by beijing together with moscow, can be. i do not know, when the geneva peace conference will take place, but i see the swiss government's agreement to hold it as a positive sign, especially since russia will not be there. so this is good, and ultimately it will be a sign of support for ukraine. in my opinion, this is a kind of brainstorming aimed at finding ways to achieve peace. thus, to allow ukraine to restore its territorial integrity. it is worth noting that even the so-called peace plan of china, which is quite vague regarding ukraine. in fact, the first point included the idea of ​​recovery territorial integrity of ukraine. of course , china is forced to take such a position because of

taiwan's problems. if you observe china's behavior after russia's full-scale invasion of ukraine, china has not behaved as an ally of russia. instead, it acts more like a country that has an understanding with russia, having a common adversary, which is the west and the united states. xinjin pin is essentially using vladimir putin to do the dirty work, the hard work of waging war. china is trying not to provide russia with weapons and not to violate sanctions, because it very concerned about secondary us sanctions. these are the sanctions that, if violated, could hit chinese banks hard, for example, if chinese banks no longer have access to the us dollar, the swift system or the us financial system, xijing pin fears that. his own political earthquake will occur at home. so, china's presence in geneva is not so bad in my opinion. it would be much better if china, apart from the ukrainian issue, did not

share russia's desire to undermine the west and the usa. however, i actually have high hopes for geneva conference and is sure that there will be no serious pressure on ukraine to abandon its legitimate demands to clear its territory of all. of russian troops and completely restore its territorial integrity, when we talk about the parameters of what russia considers to be a certain achievement of goals, this is one point, and the second point is the question of how our friends see the victory of ukraine, that is jake sullivan, adviser president biden on national security issues, did a couple of days ago an extremely powerful signal, that is, according to him, the victory of ukraine will bring together... a sovereign, democratic, economically independent ukrainian state and so on and so forth, the only thing that he missed is an extremely important point, which is the return

of our territories temporarily occupied by the russian federation , here we come back again to what is called strategic assistance from the united states and our allies, not just tactical-level assistance, so to speak, that allows us to preserve, perhaps... what we have on the current moment: strategic assistance involves fundamentally new types of weapons in sufficient quantity to inflict an extremely painful defeat on the enemy. what i am very critical of the biden administration is that neither jake salevan nor president biden has ever clearly stated that we want ukraine to win. we want victory for ukraine. they always say: we want ukraine to lose, but they don't say directly: we want ukraine to win. so psychologically, in my opinion, this is too weak a position, but one of the reasons why

they don't clearly define what victory means for ukraine, or even talk about it, is that, as they often say, it is up to ukraine to decide what victory will look like. you are a democracy, so this is your country, your territory and your people, so it is up to ukraine to decide. how the war will end and what victory will mean for her. yes, i understand that russia has resumed its military offensive, but russia's goal all along has been to survive. i mean, after it failed its first attack on kyiv in february, march 2022 year, and after the successful counteroffensive of ukraine, which pushed out russian troops from kherson in the south and from kharkiv in the north. russia had to literally dig in, dig trenches and hope. and may even pray that the united states and our european allies will not provide ukraine with the aid that the brave ukrainian soldiers need to win.

this is what is happening now. yes, that's it. we 're not giving you the help you need, so russia can hold back and maybe even take a few steps forward. but how i have already said, i am more and more confident that ukraine will receive this aid, and it is important that ukraine uses it as wisely as possible. i want to frankly share with you what i hear from the american military, who are ardent supporters of ukraine. they say that ukraine previously trained very inefficiently, firing too many rounds and shells during exercises, and that the aid should have been used more sparingly. in addition, there were fears that part of the money received was used for other purposes, for example, for the purchase of expensive cars to ukrainian officials who had access to finance. but these numbers are small. ukraine will win if we give it 60 billion dollars in aid and 40 billion dollars that the european union promised to ukraine. a victory for me. means that

ukraine will push all russian troops out of its territory and fully restore its territorial integrity. but it's easy for me to talk about it sitting in the comfort of my home in istanbul. the leadership and the people of ukraine have to weigh much more difficult compromises. life and destruction against the territory, and only the people of ukraine and their elected leaders can decide what this compromise should look like. you mentioned istanbul, and in fact, i would like now... for you to analyze the situation with president erdogan and his potential opportunities, so we understand that president erdogan has now managed to negotiate an unprecedented, de facto agreement on certain possible american sanctions mechanisms regarding turkey in agreement with the turkish authorities, that is , we understand that president erdogan is a powerful player, but how powerful will he be, and if we talk and return to the so-called geneva format or the istanbul... format

in combination with the geneva format could yield one or another fruit, do you have the feeling that putin is ready, despite all diplomatic attempts, to go for further escalation, with further entry in the so-called even bigger war. i think that president erdoğan proved that he is a very effective negotiator, he managed to conclude the so-called green agreement with ukraine with the participation of moscow and kyiv. he wants to continue playing this role, he. seeks to mediate and sees turkey's foreign policy as aimed at stabilizing the regions and bringing peace, prosperity and justice. this is his self-esteem and the goal of turkey. a lot of people don't agree with that, but i think that's his first priority. therefore, i believe that he will come to geneva, wanting to help conclude an agreement, if possible. regarding the war in the middle east, erdogan and his foreign ministers

are also active. acting behind the scenes, trying to make some kind of agreement. despite the fact that erdogan is very critical of netanyahu, behind the scenes, turkey is trying to facilitate a deal to release more hostages and then be ready to step in if there is a ceasefire, acting as a guarantor state, that is turkey's desire. so how strong is erdogan, i don't know how strong turkey is in this situation, it's not so much a question of brute force because... erdogan is not going to threaten anybody with military force or economic sanctions. no, he simply proved himself to be an effective mediator. and in the past, both putin and zelensky said that welcome erdogan's mediation. putin says that russia is ready to escalate the conflict in order to force ukraine to de-escalate. this is the national, security and military doctrine of russia. but i don't think that he is able

to go far as part of the escalation. the only big one. the production of weapons is a cause for concern. the russian economy is now on a war footing, it is being completely reoriented to the production of weapons. russia produces about 200 155mm artillery shells per month. and when the eu will increase its capacity, it will produce only 50,000 per month. so, russia can produce a lot of weapons, but in the long run such spending will simply bury it. the economy yes, the russian economy hasn't collapsed, but that's only because so much of russia's national wealth is now invested in military production, which means that the goods being destroyed are not contributing to economic growth. so putin's long-term costs of this war will be enormous, and if he escalates, the costs will be even greater. he wants to stay in power for another 12 years and i don't see how he is going to survive if

he escalates this war. well, in any case, we see a readiness on the part of the kremlin elites to continue the escalation, we see that in the next couple of years the russian economy did not collapse, it rebuilt itself, they are now, i think, at the end of the late middle ages, yes, but they are ready to to smear the country with war, that is, there is no such question as to preserve these or other things, no, and here is the key story taking into account this moment: how should we it was right to present your vision and your advice to the leadership of our country in order to activate certain additional mechanisms, should we now deepen, i don't know, military-economic cooperation with great britain or with the european union, in particular with france , germany and poland within the weimar triangle, or vice versa, we should now intensify our cooperation with possible.