now in the new two-hour format there are even more analytics, even more important topics, even more top guests - foreign experts, inclusion from abroad, about ukraine, the world, the front, society, and also feedback, you can express your opinion on the evil of the day with the help of a telephone survey, turn on and turn on, the verdict with serhiy rudenko, every weekday from 20 to 22 at espresso. we continue the saturday political club program, khrystyna yatskiv, vitaly portnikov and add to our conversation pavlo klimkin, a diplomat, minister of foreign affairs of ukraine from 2014 to 2019. congratulations mr. pavle, glory to ukraine. glory to heroes. congratulations, saturday political club, and to you, ms. khrystyna, and to you, vitali. so, let's try to understand the situation surrounding the russian terrorist attack, but from what aspect? how

did the events unfold precisely in connection with these western warnings, why did the united states and great britain make such demonstrative warnings about an imminent terrorist act, they formulated it that way, inevitable, and the russian federation did the pretense that there is nothing like that at all, and that these are all fabrications of the bourgeois, why did the states, everything is absolutely clear here, and here there are reasons that can be composed into three such you. well , first of all, they have to do it in accordance with their legal obligations, including international ones, and unlike russia , the states are somewhat oblivious to these obligations. the second point, there are a number of procedures between the special services on how to exchange such information when there is intelligence about the possibility of... terrorist attacks, as well as the americans

they receive, as far as i know, that on the eve of the boston marathon, remember , there was a terrorist attack there once, the americans also received something, how detailed it is, i no longer know, but they want this process to continue in the future, and the third point , the americans had to officially warn their citizens, after ... receiving this information, because there are very clear, actually legislative, legislative prerequisites for this in the united states, they legally, not only politically, have to worry about these citizens, and these are the three reasons why on march 7, what you are showing right on the screen, the americans officially warned that there is a very... high

probability of terrorist attacks, why the russian special services did not react, this is a question that we will probably discuss in detail we do not know 100%, but we can see that, firstly, this is a real blow to the image of the russian special services, just as the full-scale invasion was a blow to the russian. the russian army, and especially this is a blow to the fsb, since the fsb had to do this in the first place, and in this context, when i hear phrases that someone, as if among these terrorists, was looking for a window on the border, well, here is also a question for the fsb, that after 10 years of war and two years of full-scale invasion, if it is not possible to block... for a small

group of terrorists, then in general about that then the fsb, so there are quite a lot of questions here, you can ask them through someone, i think 10-15 minutes, and mr. pavle, well, taking into account, well, you know, putin’s experience in relevant situations, forgive me , god, wet in the sartorial and so further, he should now concentrate on the statement that was published by the amak news agency , which is connected to idil, although idil herself does not particularly provide any evidence, or does not refute this statement, well, as if she should now concentrate in that direction, but stubbornly, stubbornly, stubbornly stands on the fact that without ukraine , we couldn't do without ukraine, that the main terrorist in the world right now is ukraine and that is exactly what the russian federation is fighting against, is he not compromising himself with such behavior in his eyes. maybe even their own

recent voters, definitely not in the eyes of their voters, since the logic of propaganda there is completely different and himself from the beginning it was clear that internally they would pretend that this whole story could not have happened without the involvement of ukraine, externally i think that they will sell a different story, a story about sympathy, a story about the need to strengthen the cooperation of special services, a story about common challenges in the struggle with... zom, i think that there will be another such full-scale approach in this sense, if putin decides that he needs to build such a line of communication with the west around this, well,

a line of communication with others will be built in the same way special services, and i think that here the main russian emphasis will be on the countries of the middle east, well, india and china, of course. but also on israel, here they will not miss these opportunities, as far as in principle it is possible to say that russia can, let's say, really continue to promote all its versions in this way, that this will affect public opinion in countries where people, yes so to speak, they treat the information realistically, because we know that terror is always... such a moment when many people's emotions start to work, and not a healthy gloss, of course, and what worries many of us when they see that the reaction to this terrorist attack is immediate and meaningful, and compare it with the reaction to

the latest russian attacks on us, which sometimes seems so subdued and in in principle no... not in real time, then , of course, psychology is also at play here, but nevertheless, for the russian reality, to present it further and enter the information space of the west with the version that it is about ukraine, although the americans really warned and warned publicly, it won't really work, so i guess... like me already said, there will be two options, one for the west, one for russia itself, and there will probably be even three, one more adapted for non-western countries, where there will be some kind of mix, so there will be

several approaches, some propagandistic, which now russia will use, if we talk about... what is happening now with the results of the presidential elections in russia, many in ukraine do not understand why the west has not made any decisive statements regarding the illegitimacy of these elections and the illegitimacy of putin himself, but can the west to myself at all allow it? i think that he can allow it, but as of today he actually does not know what it will lead to, it would... cut off almost all contacts with the current russian regime, because if it is claimed that putin is illegitimate, then who in this country at all legitimate, since even according to the russian constitution, it is a presidential republic, then it is necessary to immediately cut off

all russian ambassadors from communication, they do not particularly communicate in the west anyway, but nevertheless, then it is necessary to question... russia's voting in international organizations and in particular in the same security council, and then this is raising the stakes, which , as you actually said, the west is not ready for today, because the west did, it condemned the elections in the occupied territories, which is self-evident, but not spread this logic to all elections, one of the lines... how to explain it is related to the fact that many people in the west claim that, yes, some numbers were drawn there, something was thrown in, something was played with in quotation marks , but nevertheless , putin still has a majority today

today's reality among the russian population, and the election, or what is called an election, he still... won for putin, this is actually perceived as a weakness in the mentality that exists in russia, there must be actions after the conviction and... so that the west said, and if there are elections, then it will be 1-2-3, but what did not happen was that the west said it before the election, not 1-2-3, and actually, you see, even a meeting of foreign ministers affairs of the european union, which just happened at the beginning this week, she did not call for snap decisions, that is, as far as i know, various strategic options are being considered. are not stretched in time, and in modern politics , what is stretched in time is always not

immediately connected with the cause. ugh, well , mr. pavle, let's switch to some interesting visits to ukraine, in particular , the national security adviser of the us president, jake sullivan, lynsey graham, as well as quite an influential senator visited our country, but regarding the latter, i think there is a little bit of a word disagree with actions given that he did not vote. respectively, for helping our country and other strategic partners of the united states during his time in the senate, but he says: you will get the attackers and you will definitely do what needs to be done, in particular with the kerch bridge, if i am not mistaken. sullivan was more restrained , said that i can't please you with a suitable long-range weapon yet, and in general, how do you rate these visits, were there any specifics in them for you, well... how can you call a visit to me what jack salevan has arrived, lynsey's visit is something

too much, i say this with respect, of course, to him, i have known him for many years, and as for me, that linsey, who was, well, a friend, or maybe a friend, a political partner of mccain, and i well remember our conversations there with them, remained in your memories, in short, yes. almost no one in the party can afford to go against trump, since the chances of the primary election fall many times. well, what about the fact that linsey largely repeats the logic of trump, there with loans there for ukraine and so on. and so on, it doesn't really surprise me in today's reality that

as for jake, well, jake just never passes by, he always comes to discuss strategy, approaches, and i'm sure that his visit is generally about logic, how to do common things, what the administration is ready for at the stage of the election campaign, so that it wanted to see from... us what she can provide herself, that is, this is such a serious conversation , because sullivan is in some sense, i don't know if he is biden's right hand or left hand, he trusts him, and you know what sullivan is, he is perceived by many in our country almost like a politician, but in the american sense he is not a politician, he is a person appointed directly by the presidents who... works under the president, that is, a person who is responsible for coordinating all activities in the field

of national security, and the source of decisions in this field is, is directly president biden, this does not mean that sullivan's influence there is somewhat limited, he is really crazy, that is, all these decisions converge on him, but nevertheless he is not a politician in our sense. and tell me, mr. pavle, here that there was a meeting of advisers on national security issues here in kyiv, at which mr. sullivan might not have been, and we still do not know who was at this meeting, why it was held, why suddenly the previous meetings were covered in different capitals, in different cities, it was said that they were connected there with the preparation for the summit, which should be held in switzerland, which is currently being prepared by the ministry of foreign affairs of this country, but this meeting of advisers, it actually... turned out to be so secret that not even in telegram -channels that can invent any news, you can order

even this, no information about what it was, and well, the question is not for me, i think that if you write something to your telegram channel, then this blockade there will of course be broken, well the national security advisers, to be quite serious here, they can afford not to report... on what and how they are doing, because again they are not politicians, we are used to a different logic during the war, because in us representatives of weapons. forces, representatives of the special services usually have the opportunity to address the public, but for western societies, this is not really such a classic approach, i don't particularly remember that in europe national security advisers go into the public

sphere, sullivan is of course an exception, and this is a different approach, which... is peculiar to the american system. and mr. pavle, this week we saw information from the financial times, in particular, that there are certain reservations on the part of our american partners regarding the strategy of the defense forces of ukraine to strike oil refineries on the territory of the russian federation. certainly that ukrainian officials and representatives. the president's office mostly deny this information. the usa does not put pressure on us in this regard. what the numbers tell us: the uk ministry of defense says in its latest report that at least 10% of russia's refinery capacity is actually affected, meaning frozen at least for some time. how

sensitive do you think the issue of global oil prices is for the united states as of... and does it make sense, again, that the states have some reservations about us? i do not i am sure that such terminology ala dekabrats is optimal here, but you are right that this is one of the most sensitive issues, super sensitive for europeans, but even more so for americans, because for them the price of gas stations is certain. an indicator of which way life is going, especially for those who live outside big cities, have cars there with a large volume of engines, for them refueling, which takes place there every other day, if the price of a tank there increases significantly, that is, it

affects everything, and as for the conversation. about blows which we inflict on russian refineries, here , as they say, in odessa, there are two big differences, the conversation about this pressure, it is difficult for me to comment on what the financial times writes, i assume that such a conversation could take place, but this does not mean that someone there he comes to us, calls and says, but no, under any conditions it is impossible, because yes, yes and yes, and yes... such a conversation, as a rule, takes place in the logic of what can be, what, what is the logic of this , what we can achieve, what are the risks of escalation, what are the other risks and so on, but no one will tell you about this, because the americans, europeans, all our friends officially take the position that

they do not encourage strikes on russia and do not know about them, so... in principle, no one will comment on this to you, and by the way, i do not rule out that something like this conversation, but either such a similar one may arise after this event in the moscow region, since actions there on russian territory may in this reality cause a different response, in which it will be raised. ouch, but this does not mean that the conversation turns into pressure, but whether there was such a conversation, i cannot confirm or deny it, as they say. thank you, mr. pavle, pavlo klimkin, diplomat, minister of foreign affairs of ukraine in 2014-2019, and now we will talk about energy with mykhailo gonchar, expert in energy and security relations,

president of the strategy 21 global studies center . congratulations, mr. mykhailo, good evening, well and let's let's start with the assessment, i would say, of those strikes on ukrainian energy that were delivered these days, especially since ukrenergo is talking about the fact that these are more strategically dangerous actions than even attacks on ukrainian energy in the winter of 2022, 2023 years, to a certain extent yes, although one thing should be paid attention to: if the most powerful blow in that non-last season of 22-23. year came on november 23 , 22nd year, then the power system fell into a blackout, so a few hours before... to resume functioning, but nevertheless the fact should have withstood this blow, despite the fact that the damage occurred. now the unified energy system of ukraine

is very serious. well, of course, you can say that now was not the winter peak of consumption, january is a month when the consequences could be anywhere more serious but there was still no peak in november 22 either. consumption, so in principle, i would say that the plus point is that the system survived, so we can see that kharkiv and kharkiv oblast have not recovered to a large extent, energy consumption has not been restored, there are only local, well, working generators and some local work is being done to restore it, and eventually in the rest of the areas that were affected where... the energy facilities were damaged, the energy consumption is mostly restored, so one way or another it's demonstrated again the stability

of ukraine's energy system is sufficiently high, and this is an important point. as for the situation related to the dniproges, of course it is problematic, because it is a powerful hydroelectric power station , the most powerful in the dnipro cascade, and it is about 1.6 gv, one and a half hakum there. of standard nuclear power units, and this is maneuvering power, it fell out, it is precisely this maneuvering power that is important to us, such maneuvering power is thermal generation and hydrogeneration, and therefore, in principle, this just means that the blow was inflicted systematically from the point of view of unbalancing the energy system as a whole, and in particular to deliver strikes that, according to the enemy's plan , should... turn off the power supply for our main industrial district, this is the dnipro district, where our main industrial centers are located, the same

dnipro, zaporizhzhia, kryvyi rih, well, and so on , well, as we can see, it didn't work, although the destruction is certainly serious, mr. mykhailo, but we're just somehow omitting that it was actually the night before it was attacked. so our large-scale energy industry has also become very large-scale shelling, which was concentrated on the ukrainian capital. many who monitor the russian federation's ability to stockpile missiles and reload them into strategic bombers were surprised that they did not pause. don't you think that the russians will now actually force or try to force us to cover up, to force us to cover up. our energy facilities and distract from some other important goals for them in order to, realizing that actually our air defense capabilities

absolutely infinite, well, we do it anyway, it's just that it's not reported, that is, the anti-flood power does not stand still, they are constantly in motion, because if they stop somewhere, they are destroyed, let's remember the recent incident with petri. they are constantly in russia there, and this is the norm, then, if, in fact, there is nothing surprising in the fact that on the 21st there was a massive attack on kyiv, and on the 22nd on other targets outside kyiv. if you recall, on october 10-11 of the 22nd year there was a somewhat similar situation, the 10th strike and the 11th strike were the same, so that's basically it. well, we can say that this is already a proven tactic, that is, the first blow is concentrated, the second is dispersed,

because the enemy, well, in this case, from the point of view of the attacking side, we should, so to speak, again be concentrated on the fact that there will be a second strike on kyiv, and they did it in a completely different way, but this suggests that in fact it is... so to speak, on the table there of the command of the air and space forces, this russian, this scenario has been lying for a long time, it's just that they obviously had other priorities, and then they decided to strike at this time considering the fact that before that they had systematically and systematically struck the defense and industrial infrastructure of the same dnipro region, but the question arises... how ready are they for some new ecological disasters, that is also a very important point, it seems to me, well, for them there is no question there, let's say, if ... there is

some kind of ecological disaster on the territory of ukraine, well, they will not accept this very much, the example of kakhovska kes, what happened, but again well, i'm concentrating recently, attention has been drawn to the fact that it is incorrect to compare what happened with the kakhovskaya hes dam and the shelling that took place on the dniproges, and kahovsk... the kokhovskaya hes dam was blown up, destroyed, because of it, due to the delivery of the appropriate amount of explosives there , these are tons, if not tens of tons, and laying there, engineering mining was done there, taking into account what the dniproges dam is, first of all, the very scale of these, both gi'. structures are completely

different, taking into account the fact that the warhead of any missile, even the most powerful out there, which are currently used by x22, it is only 960 kg, so to speak, with the help of a missile strike, to destroy a hydroelectric dam such as in zaporizhzhia, dnipro-hes, well, it is impossible, you really need to control it, put there... tens of tons, as a minimum of explosives, and then there will be the effect that occurred twice in the history of dniproges, in the 41st and 43rd years, because some such, well, of course, you can hypothetically imagine that there are several bomber regiments of the russian aviation with powerful bombs of the fab type there (3 tons) will bombard this dam throughout

some a lot of time, well, but of course , our hostile defense will not give them such an opportunity, they will be destroyed much earlier than they will come to the line of bombing, so if the fact that such information about a possible ecological catastrophe as a result of russian strikes began to spread, it's just that, too, an element of such an accompanying information-propaganda operation aimed at ugh. to sow panic and nervousness in ukrainian society, and , accordingly, corresponding moods. now let's talk a little about russian energy. regular oil refinery was affected, this time kuibyshivskyi, and we are talking about today, before that there was a series, and already 10% of russian oil refining capacities were actually paralyzed due to the activities

of the defense forces of ukraine. please tell me, mr. mykhailo, can this, firstly, have this already led to the corresponding effect in russia itself, and can it somehow affect the prices of oil, oil in the world, the behavior of the relevant organizations, ala opec, and in general, can it provoke some suv, well, look, what it destroys russia's critical energy infrastructure, in this case , oil refining, that's right, and it's already recognized by everyone, both our friends and our enemies, but when it comes to the fact that ukrainian strikes on russian oil refining are said to screw up the price of oil there on the world market , this is absolutely manipulation, first of all, it is not

the same, and not at all the same market. oil swarms and the oil products market, the gasoline market and the diesel market are also not the same thing, so in principle, no one pours crude oil into car tanks, but users of crude oil, the consumers are oil refineries, so when we talk about the fact that the price of oil has increased as a result of the ukrainian strikes, well, it is simply pulled by the ears, the price of oil is an action. indeed increased for some time, although, by the way, these days it is decreasing somewhat, but this is a manifestation of the inability of the western coalition to curb the houthis, and the activities of the houthis themselves also contribute to the increase in oil prices, since the traditional oil traffic through babelmandeb, the red sea, suez blocked practically, and traffic is now detoured.