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greetings, this is svoboda live, my name is vlasta lazur and we start with the situation at the front. russian troops are slowly but advancing in the east in particular, the current report of the american institute for the study of war speaks of the advance of russian troops near bakhmut. this happened against the background of positional battles in the area, according to geolocation footage from march 24 , russian troops slightly, but advanced to the northeast of the canal. donets donbas, near chasovoy yar, says the institute's overview. the russian army also captured two more settlements in the avdiiv direction. tonenko and orlivka villages. this was reported the day before by the military columnist of the german publication bild julian roebke. both settlements are located approximately 5 km west of avdiivka. according to ryobka, the battle for berdychi continues. you can see on the map where all these villages that i have named are located. about capturing the thin. and orlivka, the russian

ministry of defense actually reported six days ago, the ukrainian side did not officially confirm the loss of these settlements, rfe/rl correspondents working in the east confirm the information about the occupation of tonenko and orlivka. since the occupation of february avdiivka, russian troops are pressing hard on the east of ukraine, theeconomist writes. there is, there is an alarming possibility that a new powerful russian offensive may break through in the next few months. the defense of ukraine and move deep into the country, and although russia paid a very high price for avdiivka, up to 17,000 of its soldiers may have been killed. russian troops are advancing as far west of the city as possible, trying to prevent ukraine from forming stronger defensive lines there. so far they have only covered 7-10 km, but more a boost is expected in the summer - states the zeeconomist. the next 5-6 months can be critical - says the polish. military

observer kondrat muzyka, quoted by the publication. ukraine is suffering from acute shelling hunger, so it was forced to withdraw from avdiivka. thanks to the prolific use of drones, it has been possible to partially compensate for this, but drones cannot concentrate fire in the same way as artillery. the blocking of a $61 billion military support package for the biden administration by pro-donald trump congressional republicans has little direct effect consequences. as well as the incompetent. of the european union to provide more than half a million shells that it promised to deliver by this month. russia has little difficulty recruiting contract soldiers, and can pay them sums that seem extravagant in poorer parts of the country. mr. muzyka believes that about 30,000 fresh soldiers are coming to the front every month , which is enough to support the meat attacks that were used in avdiivka in the near future. oleksandriv

head of the center for military legal research already joined our broadcast. good evening. good evening. oleksandr, i will start with information about the occupation of tonenko and orlivka. and what gives the russians, the russian army , the seizure of these two settlements? in fact, these are small villages there 5 km from avdiivka. in principle, well, nothing changes globally. that is, strategically, it does not change the situation, because the enemy is pressing there, you have to understand, they continue to advance. and of course, having certain tactical gains, from the point of view of what this means the collapse of the front or our line of defense in this direction, then no, it is forced, let's say so, in particular, and you understand, i will say that to a certain extent, i will explain why, it is somewhat even better from the point of view of maintaining defense, because their retreat is further beyond avdiivka, their west is more downhill and level. stretching their logistical

support provides certain opportunities from the point of view of hitting these logistical lines, this has already happened more than once during the full-scale. invasion, so of course our forces will use this advantage, but it is obvious that the enemy continues to press there, they are trying to develop their success, to achieve operational advancement, not just tactical, but operational, and to move further towards pokrovsk, that is, this is the goal of capturing the donetsk region, and that is why they are going, and as for, you understand, the villages , the fact is that there are villages where... the defense is held and where, in principle, the landscape and our positions are there, which allow us to do this, and there are places where it is necessary to leave and leave due to the fact that there is no such possibility to conduct a counter-battery fight , as desired, i.e. required more projectiles for this, and the enemy approaches,

when you don’t have time to actually counter everything with drones, that is, both equipment and artillery and also infantry, then of course certain actions are taking place in such a withdrawal, no... well, it does not affect from the point of view operational-strategic development or change in the situation, it remains the same as it was, russian troops conduct offensive actions, our forces support the defense and, if necessary, withdraw from certain positions, where it is actually impossible to do so. we also quoted at the beginning of the issue german military observer julian ryobka, and he says that the next target of the russian army will be the city. time rift, do you agree, and how fast can russian troops advance to the time rift? well, this city is already a target, that is, it is not a secret, and it is obvious that there are quite intense battles going on there, the russian troops have some tactical successes there, they are trying

to advance, the battles are already near the temporary ravine, the enemy is actively using mortar fire, artillery , and want to gain heights around the temporal ravine. maybe, well, i will say for about six months, the fighting has been going on, now they have intensified a bit, they are intense, so powerful, and this is one of the directions of the strike, will it be the main one now, even, well, let's say so, yes, theoretically it is possible, as well as the ugledar, to things, in the south of the donetsk region, he is also, let's say, under the threat that the enemy will increase the pressure on him, and chasivyar, of course, is the same, because it is high. and this is a connection, and this is the exit for further, further advance to kostyantynivka, so they will continue here, you see, they were able actually wedge into the line of defense , develop their success, especially in the center , that is, this is not typical, they cannot

advance from the flanks, they are blocked from the flanks, but they advance from the center, and of course, if the ukrainian forces now had enough potential opportunities . forces and means to carry out counterattacks, then this is a group that is located and advances and tries to wedge itself in the center, and there is no success on the flanks, it could be stopped by these counterattacks from the flanks, but outside, after all, the situation is quite it is also hot on other parts of the front, and we need to defend ourselves, and we need the appropriate forces and means, we need more artillery, more weapons, well , now the defense is conducted to the extent of the capabilities of the forces. means that the ukrainian troops have. now, if we are talking about the east, there are actually two hot directions, avdiyivka and bakhmutsky, but the deputy commander of the third assault brigade, maksym zhorin, who is currently fighting near avdiivka, said on spresso that russia can accumulate

forces and open more one direction of attack, in particular, maybe it will be about the border with russia, you can just continue this thought for understanding, and where can'... this this new direction, if you agree that it can be, you know, anywhere, in fact, because , because predicting it now is guessing on coffee grounds, in fact , well, why, because, i will tell you, it may be on kharkiv now, but kharkiv must be held, you know, by the way, there was a very serious shelling, an aerial bomb was used , yes, yes, this, you understand, in order to... develop an offensive on kharkiv, you need to cover the flank securing one's own , which will be opened, that is, it is necessary, it is necessary to have a group, ready close, at least about 100 00, which will be ready with the support of artillery, with

the support of weapons, and then, well, to advance somewhere, that is, to extend this front, that is, this opening of a new front, and this is in today's conditions, in principle... there are two points here, the first point, and the first thought that russia cannot do this now, because they are fighting in the east, and it is not so easy, they have concentrated there very a lot of strength, now and... you are in another direction, that means to reduce the pressure on these existing ones, well, it is conditionally to reduce the pressure, for example, at the time of the yar, you understand, when they are there two or three km away, someone believes that the enemy can go for it, i doubt for some reason, whether, for example, to reduce pressure on the avdiiv direction and on others, and this is always a choice, everything will depend, i will tell you, on kharkov or other directions, here you need to monitor the dynamics. how russia will try to resupply, firstly,

to replenish its losses, and secondly, to create some grouping that will not be involved in staffing and replenishment of the losses they suffered and their compensation, and it can be independent and can be involved as an independent group in another direction, but i just remembered, literally last week the russian publication vjorstka wrote, they referred to sources. who are supposedly close to the kremlin, wrote about the fact that conscripts will be called up, yes, who will be thrown there, relatively speaking, to protect the western borders of russia, and those who are currently on the western borders will be formed for a new offensive, whether on the old directions, or on some new direction, again, that 's all, you understand, that's all possible, that is, it's all an open question for today, so on... the commander of the ground forces of the armed forces of ukraine, lieutenant general pavlyuk, when giving an interview, he could not say 100% whether it

will be replenishment of losses or whether it will be a new full-fledged group, we are watching it. the second point, i am less worried about the land for which for some of the directions now, that is, about the land advance, because they they cover themselves, and harkov and sum are quite good and good. there is a different situation here, here... threats from the air, and this seems to me to be what already exists now, that is, we are concentrating on the fact that some group may appear, which, well, you know, if they took avdiivka for six months , then it is possible for kharkiv, they would have been fighting for two years, well, two or two years, i think , at this rate, well, a year for sure, but what is most threatening is russian terror and airstrikes, against this for today day we, especially when we talk about kharkiv or on... for example about zaporozhye, the front-line cities, we have less , especially about kharkiv, i would highlight,

nevertheless, especially kharkiv, we do not have so many capabilities to protect the city of kharkiv directly from these airstrikes, this is what i see as a threat, i.e. the fact that the enemy will understand that they cannot take kharkiv by land and will try to cause as much destruction as possible by striking from the air . kharkivska the evacuation of the region is currently underway, but the mayor of kharkiv, with whom we spoke on the air yesterday, asks not to escalate the situation, and to remain calm, well, these are politicians, so they always ask to remain calm, nevertheless , we see that kharkiv is attacked there every day , i will add a little for the context what the western press writes about the probable breakthrough of the front there or... in a few months it can break through the defense

of ukraine and lead to the fact that russian troops will move deep there. the german publication welt writes that ukraine will be in a very a dangerous situation in the summer and early autumn, because that is when the acute phase of the war will come and russia will try to break through the defense lines of the armed forces. very similar... in fact, at the same time, do you, firstly, agree with such predictions, and secondly, do you see any signs of controversy in order to make such predictions? there should always be such forecasts , i make them myself, because the risks of the probability that somewhere the enemy can break through the front can never be excluded, you understand, this is war, and predicting every day of hostilities is actually quite difficult, and therefore of course, that some factors, some risk. that russia can do this, they will always be present, as well as the breakthrough of the front,

as well as the attempt to advance deep, and this cannot be ruled out, under any circumstances, by the way, and i will tell you that this winter such there were risks too, they are not only the next few months, they were also a month ago and two months ago, when there was a situation near avdiivka, and we know when they talked about it on all the media columns, and it was also discussed in ukraine, and the president. biden even spoke about the fact that the power of means is not enough, for example, otherwise, then it would have been possible to hold out in avdiivka and so on, that's why there are such threats, there is just another one here now. a factor that, you understand, we cannot predict, we can say that there may be a front breakthrough, the enemy may advance somewhere, this cannot be ruled out, but there is another factor that is, of course, support from our partners and help, from this a lot will depend on the receipts, the speed of receipt and the amount of those weapons and ammunition that we will receive, and

on this a lot will depend on the security the situation on how long and how the ukrainian troops will be able to hold out and stop any offensive actions of the enemy. oleksandr, does anything at least give you reason to make optimistic forecasts regarding emergency aid from western partners? well, at least you see, the situation with the shells is gradually being resolved. here i see, i am somewhat optimistic here, because from the european union, you have, from the european union and from the czech republic, you know that if you count, they have already promised 2.7 million shells by the end of the year, well, they promised, and by the end of the year , you understand well... you see, this is again, if everything turns out, at least from those statements, we can calculate how it will be by the end of the year, we will already sum up at the end of the year, and in principle, europe has become somewhat more active, i will say that if it were not for the support of europe at this time, while the congress is not considering the issue of aid to ukraine, it would be very difficult for us and i am afraid that a breakthrough of the front

could already happen somewhere in certain places. thank you for your comment, oleksandr musienko, head of the center for military legal research, we were talking about... the situation at the front. thank you. while vladimir putin continues to claim that ukraine may have been involved in the crocus city hall attack, some of the kremlin's inner circle disagree, at least publicly. publicly, or rather, they agree, but not publicly, hardly, the bloomberg agency writes about this with reference to four people who have close ties with the kremlin, one of the interlocutors of the agency. stated that putin was allegedly present at discussions during which russian officials agreed that there was no connection there is no terrorist attack with ukraine. despite this, vladimir putin is determined to use this tragedy to rally russians around the war in ukraine, according to bloomberg's source. and although the russian authorities have no evidence of involvement in the terrorist attack in kyiv,

not only putin, but also the secretary of the security council of russia, mykola patrushev, and the head of the fsb, oleksandr, have publicly stated this. bortnikov, listen to how they argue this. and deal or ukraine? of course, ukraine. you said that ukraine was definitely behind this terrorist attack. what does it mean? many points to this. now the investigative committee will analyze everything and provide information. and the special services and law enforcement agencies have everything they need and will report on time. there is also a political basis here. action, of course they were helped, and we see a ukrainian trace here, the president said about it, he gave instructions and instructions, and we are working in this direction, but the primary data we received from the detainees confirms this, so we will work over finding out whether the ukrainian side is really behind it or not, but at the moment there is every reason to say that it is so. in kyiv, i

let me remind you, volodymyr zelenskyi denies any involvement in the tragedy in krok city hall, talking about assumptions. called him a sick and cynical being. according to the latest data, 140 people died as a result of the terrorist attack. so far, the moscow courts have decided to take eight defendants into custody, seven of them natives of tajikistan. responsibility for the attack on crocus sisihol was claimed by a cell of the islamic state called "wilayat khorasan". the islamic state is recognized as a terrorist organization in europe and the united states. authenticity the statements of the terrorists were confirmed in zmi by american government officials. however, vladimir putin himself'. twice publicly tried to connect the terrorist attack with ukraine. in his first speech, made 19 hours after the attack, he said that the perpetrators of the terrorist attack were allegedly detained on their way to ukraine, where a window was allegedly prepared for them to cross the border. the kremlin did not provide evidence in favor of this version. subsequently, putin stated that it was necessary to answer the question of why

the terrorists tried to go to ukraine after committing the crime and who was waiting for them there. now, judging by the putin and bortnikov and patrushev in the kremlin not only are not going to reject the version about the ukrainian trail, but also make it the main one, why? yevhen magda, candidate of political sciences, director of the institute of world politics, joins our broadcast. yevgeny, good evening. greetings, gentlemen, good evening. look, no one in the world, i am talking about countries that are really making a lot of effort to fight terrorism, has not seen and does not see the ukrainian trace in the terrorist attack, does not talk about it, but the kremlin continues to promote this version, why, is there any one specific goal, reason, or is it such a combination of factors, and mobilization, and the strengthening of the regime, and the weakening of western aid, what do you think? say, there are several factors : firstly, it is necessary to explain to putin and his camarilla how it happened that a few days after the triumphant re-election of putin to

the post of putin, such a large-scale terrorist attack took place, one of the largest in the history of russia, recent history, secondly, russia is trying to prove to the whole world that ukraine is a failed state, well, they have been doing it for a long time. but this time they do it especially cynically and try to show that ukraine is connected with terrorists. this is not the first such attempt. in the fall of the 22nd year, the russian leadership, and practically, as they say, the menagerie is still the same. both putin and patrushev accused ukraine of planning to use a dirty bomb in the kherson region. a dirty bomb is one of the attributes of terrorists, well, in any case, in the history of international relations, the same thing was constantly

accused of what it seeks to have dirty bomb one more fact, why this thesis is so actively promoted, and it sounds as actively as possible from russian disinformation sources around the world in order to... create tension and prevent the west from increasing its support for ukraine. i will explain my logic as i see it. putin and others, they perfectly understand that the leaders of western countries, they know that ukraine is not involved in this. but ordinary people, ordinary citizens, they may doubt. and that's why, i would say, they create such informative, disinformation carpet bombing in order for them to somehow influence their politicians, their leaders, and therefore we

may accordingly find ourselves in a situation if russia is successful in acting in this sense, and it acts at least as energetically as possible and, i would say, with with persistence worth better use, she tries to discredit ukraine. and indeed, there is definitely a connection in the fact that these accusations are being made against ukraine, the bombing is intensifying, various disinformation spewings are intensifying, that is, russia wants its kremlin spring in 2024 year to play out according to your own rules. and do you think it will be easy to convince western societies that ukraine has something to do with the terrorist attack. without evidence, just by these throwaways that you are talking about, on the one hand, it is not as simple as it seems at first glance, on the other hand, let's not

overestimate the level of critical thinking of western society, there were also, for example, anti-vaxxers, there were also people there who belonged to various, well, i don't know, totalitarian cults, so let's not not ... well, idealize our westerners partners, but we also have to do something ourselves, that is, ukraine, in my opinion, in the current situation should, for example, no longer speak with our, even western partners, but with muslim countries and talk about the fact that we are waging a war defending our own territory , that it is russia that commits war crimes on our territory and constantly cite facts, russia's logic is that, as they say, ukraine is not, no, no, not in

mourning together with russia, while a number of european countries expressed their condolences after the terrorist attack, and this, i understand, is putin extremely inspired, and that is why he tries to show such logic that they say that ukraine did not express sympathy, therefore it is involved, does russia express sympathy ... when it kills our citizens every day, and it is done by the russian military, when, unfortunately, they die very often our ukrainian children, this number, unfortunately , has already reached a hundred, isn't this terrorism, isn't this state terrorism, and we also have to talk about it, we have to talk about it as convincingly as possible, that russia acts as a terrorist state and actually destroys ukraine is trying to be destroyed, we saw it in donetsk. we are now seeing barbaric shelling of other cities, here we are showing kharkiv right now, yes, yes, this is a city of a million people, in which the russian-speaking

population was mainly. literally before a large-scale invasion begins, and this is state terrorism, we have to talk about it in a variety of ways: calling on your various colleagues, calling on opinion leaders to see it for themselves wherever possible, wherever possible for their safety . evgeny, if we talk further about the how can the west behave in connection with this terrorist attack, well, for example, volodymyr kravchenko, columnist of the international politics department, last week, he wrote a long article about it, i will quote, and he writes that if the organizers and executors of this terrorist attack, there were terrorists and dil, then a common enemy appears in russia and the west, because the west has been opposing the ideal for a long time, therefore, he says, the need for contacts and cooperation between russia and the west to oppose terrorism is increasing, therefore there is a prospect of such a narrow-minded

cooperation from one side of the partners. ukraine, on the other hand, the enemies of ukraine. do you agree that the fight against terrorism can potentially unite the west and russia, and are there any risks here for ukraine? you know, i'm a popular meme, it was already in 2001, but there was no war in ukraine, yes, but there was no war in ukraine, there was no war in ukraine, but let's not forget that the american special services had already warned the russians about a possible ter, that is ... anti-terrorist cooperation of various special services, it exists, well, it is clear that it cannot be between by the special services of the warring countries, but for the west , to exchange information on matters of counter-terrorism is, in my opinion, absolutely normal, another issue is that, i think, they do not believe the accusations that have been made against these people, who are now being shown, well, there. .. a beautiful

illustration of the state and in ukrainian , from where they took the ukrainian trace, in which, in what state are the people who are on the dock, where they choose a preventive measure, it’s true, well, that’s it, well, some shots seem to be taken from a movie, but oh well this is russian logic, this the logic of a totalitarian state, there can be no illusions, russia is a totalitarian state, and we must... talk about it in an understandable western lexicon, we must explain why this is so, we must explain that we do not have any manifestations of religious terrorism, that ukraine it was not supported and does not support it, and cannot support it, because how can you support terrorism when you yourself are being acted upon by the methods of state terrorism. ukraine should be understandable for the west and not only for

the west. in their actions, but now ukraine is not understandable for the west, western politicians come here who have the desire, go to odesa, kharkiv, bucha. i mean this moment of putin's accusations, it's just not just saying loudly that putin is a scoundrel, they know he's a scoundrel, but they need, i think, concrete evidence that ukraine is acting in accordance with. the language of international law and does not allow itself any movements that would allow us to talk about support. allow me to ask one more question regarding the consequences for russia itself. now the russian propaganda is in full force is trying to convince the citizens of russia that ukraine is behind the terrorist attack. will it work or not ? well, for example, bilt's deputy editor-in-chief says that propaganda

works very well. and he believes that the russian authorities will convince the citizens of russia that the majority of russian citizens, that ukraine is behind this, if they constantly repeat it, if it succeeds in doing it, what it can affect, how russia can then use, use this history for itself within russia? dehumanization of ukraine and ukrainians did not start after the terrorist attack in the world. it started much earlier, and it has a systemic nature, that is why the report on 32 ukrainian prisoners who were executed by the russians of this land is very telling, we will talk about it now, so after the capture of avdiyivka, it simply began to have a more massive character , if it didn't sound pricey, it's an element not only in...