represents united by football, stronger together. about russia's new large-scale offensive and the freezing of the conflict. shells for ukraine from the czech initiative and whether telegram will be blocked in ukraine, we are talking about this and other things right now, this is svoboda life, my name is serhii stetsenko. a new offensive of the russian federation in the next few months may break through the defense of ukraine. analysts of the british publication the economist write about it. as noted in the article, in the coming weeks, ukraine will have some easing of the situation with shelling and combat clashes, however. soon,

the publication writes, russia will launch a new offensive. at the same time, russian troops will receive reinforcements and take advantage of problems in ukrainian defense and the lack of weapons, writes the economist. in particular, the kremlin will use the terrorist attack in the kroku city hall concert hall to increase the hatred of russians against ukrainians. and thanks to this, the russian authorities hope that the new wave of mobilization will be successful. the german publication welt shared its analysis the day before and indicated. to the fact that 2024 year, the war may stop or freeze, they say, neither side will have an advantage on the battlefield, the publication noted. well, about the assessments of western analysts and observers and about the fate of the front in 2024 and not only. mykhailo podolyak, adviser to the head of the office of the president of ukraine, joins svoboda live as we continue to talk. mykhailo, congratulations. greetings, greetings to you. at once. western publications

published materials about the situation at the front, prospects for the 24th year. the german welt writes that the war may stop or freeze. british the economist writes about a large-scale offensive by russia in a few months, and cbs concludes that ukraine is not ready in case of another large-scale offensive by russian troops in may-june this year. the question is whether ukraine is ready to repel a likely major offensive, if, as these analysts note, he is. will take place and will it not force volodymyr zelensky to sit down at the transition table? and there is no negotiating table, let's start with when you talk about a freeze, well, don't howl when analysts talk about a freeze, and i always ask the question: is russia definitely ready to freezing when she did not achieve the goals she set for herself in this war. today they openly say that the key goal, the only goal of this war is the destruction of ukrainian statehood, not as a concept of statehood, but as a territory where a disloyal population lives.

well, that is, the maximum large-scale destruction of the population of another country, and definitely they did not achieve their goals , and definitely they are not ready to be satisfied with the part of the territory they captured, and therefore they will continue to expand, so definitely russia needs an operational pause, you rightly noted, in order to carry out additional mobilization measures, in order to provide additional militarization of the economy, the economy and so on and so on, but this does not solve the key issue for russia, they have to win this war, how do they... uh, they see it for themselves, that is, it's not a war about territory, emphasize once again, a war about dominance and so on. on the other hand, when we read about the risks of russia's offensive operations, resource concentration and so on further and the like, we do not read something else in these analytical materials, we do not read a conclusion about why ukraine, ukraine lacks military capacity, that is, lacks a concretely appropriate resource for launching an effective war against.

russian federation from the point of view of what? from the point of view of the projectile, from the point of view of the long-range e-e missile, from the point of view of aviation, first of all. because what is russia demonstrating today? today, russia demonstrates the absolutely effective use of guided aerial bombs on the front line. certainly, this can be countered by having an adequate number of tactical aircraft as such. if it is not there, then russia will continue to use the cabs with impunity and definitely use these cabs to destroy one or another defense and defense capabilities of ukraine. ukraine, that is, the russian federation, will continue to press at the expense of this component of the war. and it was definitely desirable that the analysis should say: if there is no tactical aviation in ukraine, then it is impossible to oppose the kabs, if it appears, then the situation is along the line the front will look completely different. and finally, the key factors, which the president, by the way, stated in an interview with cbs, he clearly says: "look, anti-missile systems, in order to remove the dominance of russia, to finally remove the dominance of russia." in

the air due to ballistic missiles and supersonic missiles, the second component is a projectile , respectively, or a projectile with a drone used in parallel, and that's it, and then we see everything. another situation on the front line as such, you mentioned aviation, and we are probably talking about the f-16, including vladimir putin, the president of russia commented on the provision of f-16s to ukraine and he said that this provision will not fundamentally change the situation on the battlefield, and he also specified that if these planes take off from airfields in europe, then these airfields will become an equally legitimate target, what do you say? well, first of all, putin does not understand war, he understands the number of factors of this war, that is , he believes that if he fills the battlefield with mobilized people, then he will have one or another dividend, respectively, a really specific tool, for example, one plane whether one hymars or one abrams does not solve

the question of such a large scale war, the question of numbers decides the question, respectively, if you have 50+ f-16 aircraft with the appropriate avionics, then you will have... results, what results, tactical aviation is removed from from the battlefield, that is, russia does not dominate, the cabs do not destroy the defense structures of ukraine, then it will look completely different for what russia is doing today on the front line, as well as any tool, if you have 20 long-range missiles, of course essential impact on russia's logistics along the entire front line, the length of which is 1,300 km in total, it will certainly not have certain effects, if you have 200... missiles, it will look completely different, look, take, for example, the black sea fleet or we take the south of ukraine, as soon as the number of used drones, sea drones that ukraine uses has significantly increased, what we saw with the black sea fleet, where it is today, today it is accordingly

located in the bays of novorossiysk and is used exclusively to to attack the land space of ukraine with calibers, but as soon as you have an increased number of tools. then in general everything looks different, that's why one plane does not solve anything, the corresponding number, the mathematically justified number, solves a lot of things and most importantly removes the tool, and you know, and that's why putin talks about it, well, if you don't care, you won't fixate on the fact that look, if there are f16s, they do not solve anything, but we will still attack airfields if these airfields are located in other countries, well, in general, that it looks a little strange, not the lack of a reaction to these... words, well, that is, the person accordingly says that he will attack the territories of other sovereign states, because certain planes will be based there, well , this is nonsense and so on, but when a person constantly talks about it, it will mean only one thing that the effective influence of tactical aviation will have a sufficiently significant, significant

impact on the course of events on the front line. mr. mykhailo, with the number it is clear what you will say about the dates, because we know that they are ukrainian the pilots are getting ready. f-16 are there approximately dates , a month, two, three, when they can these fixed, fixed calendar dates, about this, by the way, the minister of foreign affairs, mr. kuliba says that by the summer these planes should be, according to this the problems we have today, from which we suffer on the front line, i say once again that for the last 3-3 and a half or even four months, russia has been using kaba on a large scale precisely on the front line, of course all this is somehow reflected in the dispositions of the parties, well , that is, russia... in this way more brazenly leads, because they found the appropriate tools, well, it means the use of guided aerial bombs, and as soon as there is tactical aviation, we will see a significant change in the disposition of the parties on the front line within a month, as such, i would like it all to happen a little faster, accordingly, we would like our

partners to make key decisions sooner, i mean, what, i mean, when they think, they continue discussions or there, let's say, a conversation about whether it is necessary to provide that... another type of weapon, for example , a long-range missile to ukraine, because it can provoke some kind of escalation, on the contrary, they should realize that delaying the transfer of these weapons is an escalation, because russia is slowly starting to feel this fear, well, that is, what they partially see in the words of our partners there and so on, then russia begins to behave more brazenly both on the front line, and in the information space, and from the point of view of precisely these threats, so that... we will gather additional armies there, mobilize an additional large number of people to seize targets cities in ukraine, i just wanted to clarify with olaf scholz, who said recently in one of the german publications that the issue of providing taurus long-range missiles is closed for the time being precisely because of the fear

of a collision between russia and nato, it turns out that ukraine does not yet have the tools to beliefs, in particular germany and german. chancellor, and it turns out that the measure can in principle push, just as the analysts write, to some kind of freezing of this conflict, if they do not give in. russia to further expansion, why, because because not providing weapons, on the contrary, provokes them to feel this fear, unpreparedness to win this war, well, it is meant at the level of european unpreparedness. win this war , and then we should not talk about freezing the conflict, russia did not achieve its goals, i

started with that, there are appropriate goals for russia, they did not achieve these goals, they do not need a freeze, that is, by not providing ukraine with the appropriate weapons, you on the contrary, you are provoking russia to continue to press until they receive the key: capitulation, not even of ukraine, but of europe as a whole, and russia, first of all, will not lose war, secondly, it will not be responsible for all crimes, including economic ones, it will not be... responsible, and thirdly, it will dominate europe, well, that is, it sounds a little paradoxical: we will not provide you with, for example, long-range weapons , so as not to escalate and thus force both you and russia to sit down at the negotiating table and freeze the war. russia does not want to freeze the war, russia wants to either win or lose, i will even say this: ukraine cannot freeze the war, because any freeze will only mean the scaling of this war and an attack in at this stage, at other stages and so on. and finally, the key thing. i emphasize once again that the transfer of weapons is not about the intervention of others, well, one or the other, especially since we already

use long-range missiles of other countries, the same scalps, or those storms and so on, and then this is the position, mr. mykhailo, then this is the position of olef scholz in particular , what do you say about it, this position is certainly the position of this or that head of this or that state, and, for example, if we are talking about germany, i see there an extremely difficult, but extremely necessary discussion of various political groups about whether it is still necessary in this war to provide any options that will allow ukraine to effectively oppose the russian federation, including whether it is necessary to provide ukraine with long-range weapons, and this discussion is ongoing in german society, and this very good, because just a couple of months ago there was not even such a discussion there, and we can see that we would like to gradually have these discussions with you, of course, i have no doubt that it would all be faster, but still, let's not forget that we are today we see a completely different behavior of european countries, by the way, in relation to... china is a key country in terms of european assistance to us, well, from a military point of view, that is

, the largest packages, the largest volume of various tools that germany provides, in addition, germany is the key a partner regarding the transfer to us of the same patriots, which are extremely effective against ballistics or against supersonic russian missiles, therefore, of course, this discussion is very, very good, which is going on in germany, and i think that sooner or later they will come to the adoption of the absolutely only possible decision, all... materials for effective warfare should be provided to ukraine in the necessary quantity, including long-range capabilities, because what long-range capabilities are, it is precisely the destruction of the architecture of war, that is, the logistics of war as such. and regarding the sending of military personnel of western countries, in particular emmanuel macron, the president of france, there was such a period, he mentioned it very often, then several leaders, in particular the czech leaders , said that they would not send their military personnel to the territory. of ukraine carry out these or other operations, are the ukrainian authorities conducting any dialogue about

sending these troops in any format, participating in direct hostilities or something else? i would like to distinguish two components here for the first time, the ukrainian authorities are discussing the provision of the necessary amount of weapons, for us it is a priority, the president is talking about it, here we do not need to talk about some hypothetical scenarios, but we need to talk about specifics, if both this and this second warehouse if you understand, and it is very good that mr. macron raised this issue, because then it is for a european voter or for a european citizen, it clearly records that the risks are so great that there are even conversations about the need to provide assistance through national contingents, through one or another direct participation of military personnel of various countries in, for example, training programs on the territory of ukraine or engineering programs or even participate directly. in the war as such, and this is another level of discussion, and this, again,

looks a little different for society today, that is, they are more aware of the danger that the russian federation brings to europe, and then, and here i go again to the first position, what the president of ukraine insists on, what our officials insist on, let's go, these are hypothetical conversations about the possibility of using those these or other national contingents, well, that is, you can have such a conversation for a long time, but they are necessary. today to receive certain amounts of weapons, then let's , in order to calm you down a little, you will provide more and faster to provide weapons, for that there is no need to use national contingents in support. these defensive wars of ukraine. ugh. i will finish with this, that is, ukraine has never officially or unofficially asked for this. that is, macron took it on his own initiative. it is absolutely normal that it was macron who raised this issue, because, i will emphasize once again, this is a european large-scale discussion, because this is a common european political space, and one or another leader, leader, leader

country, he has the right to raise global issues question. that is, through lifting. on this topic , i emphasize once again, macron showed european consumers that the risks are very, very big, and that is very good, but on the other hand, what about ukraine, ukraine constantly emphasizes that we understand how to fight, we have who to fight, we need the necessary weapons, there must be a lot more of them, and while we are talking about hypothetical scenarios, let's go to the more concrete logistical capacity of our partners to provide us with the necessary tools. in the necessary mathematically balanced quantity. ugh. let me clarify: ukraine did not ask. ukraine does not ask for military personnel. ukraine asks for weapons for military personnel. of course. mr. mykhailo, the question is about internal ukrainian history, about the dismissal of the former secretary of the national defense security council oleksiy danilov, you already said in your previous

comments that there is no need to look for conspiracy theories. the president's statement that this is a renewal of power, meanwhile, political scientist volodymyr fisenko, commenting on it dismissal, the nestesche vremya channel suggested that this could have happened, including because danilov on the air of the telethon, let's say, called the special representative of china li hui, i said right now, an obscene word, trying to pronounce his name, is that so , say, no, definitely not, well, it is very, very shallow somehow yes, well, that is... impossible, look, once again, the president is a frank person, and he accordingly clearly said in his statements, mr. danilov remains in the team, will work in another direction, we need to strengthen the analytical component of the nsdc, and certainly mr. litvinenko, who is a specialist in this field, will do it as best as possible, because , understanding the stage of the war we are in, it is necessary to more clearly monitor the processes in the russian federation, more clearly

monitor the pre-election processes, let me remind you litvynenko had something to do with the foreign intelligence service, election processes and russia's influence. on certain election processes in other countries, well, in european ones, first of all, of course, analyzing what will happen in elections to the european parliament and so on , that is, you know, two years of war - it is always necessary to constantly strengthen one or another direction, one or another state institutions and so on, i emphasize once again, i do not see any here, well, analysts can talk about any - what options, yes, as they see fit there, but from the point of view of the president, in this case, he himself clearly recorded that there is freedom. there are rotations, there is a transformation of power, a reboot of power, and of course, mr. danilo will continue to work in the team. where will work remains to be seen, right? unknown yes well, a little later, that's what the president said, a little later we will have a specific direction, which will be headed by, well, where mr. danilo will work. yes, mr. mykhailo, the last thing, a week has already passed since the terrorist attack in the russian step of city hall near moscow, and

the kremlin officially continues to push this version with ukraine's involvement in it. although the il terrorist organization has already taken responsibility, official kyiv and the american side have commented on it, in particular, why do you think the kremlin continues to connect, to find some versions of the fact that ukraine is still involved in this to this day, and they cannot do otherwise, because it is motivated by the very idea for the sake of which they started all this, well, that is , anti-ukrainianism, hatred of ukraine - this is a key factor that dominates the russian political space today in one way or another, and it already has such a certain psychiatric even coloring, and they cannot move away from it, and of course, they will justify their genocidal actions against ukraine, this large-scale war, justify, look, well, they're terrorists too

, just like we're terrorists, we terrorize them, they 're doing something to us and so on, and you know, i 'll say a paradoxical thing, it's very good, because one... you remember , after the terrorist attack , well, let's say right away that ukraine really has nothing to do with it, it's obvious that the facts are specific, not that someone is talking about something, but there are specific facts, there are specific citizens of tajikistan who have acquired citizenship of the russian federation, or permanent residence permits in russia the federations that are related to russia work there and so on, but you know, the terrorist attack, we condemn, of course, manifestations of global terrorism, it is absolutely condemned by ukraine and so on and so forth, and look when the crime was committed... in crocusity, when there was an event in crocusity, many countries that support ukraine, sympathy, let's say, repeatedly showed their sympathy for the tragedy of russia, and... and at the same time, russia said these absurd things about the ukrainian trail, while everyone they talked and they didn't, well, look, there are specific facts and yes further and similar, and thus russia moved away from this sympathy, yes, well, that is, people

understand that it is inappropriate to show sympathy to an inadequate country, well, it looks strange, and therefore everything has returned to its circle, as they say, yes, that is, russia continues to conduct this inadequate policy, it tries to justify the genocidal type of waging war against ukraine with some mythical terrorist attacks, which ukraine has nothing to do with... and at the same time strengthening anti-ukrainian propaganda in the domestic space, at the same time increasing the possibility pressure on our society, that let's still mobilize and kill ukraine more, because this is no longer svo, but a war. by the way, on the eve of the terrorist attack , piskov literally said that this is no longer a war for us, and so on. on the other hand, other countries, they also understand that russia is so inadequate that instead of investing in counter-terrorism, as such, which is related to global radical... for example, they will continue to invest in the war against ukraine, which is related to terrorism has nothing to do with it. thank you very much for your comment. mykhailo podeliak, adviser to the head of the office

of the president of ukraine, is broadcast on radiosvodymo. thank you. thank you. the czech republic , as part of its initiative to purchase projectiles for ukraine, plans to collect them for the armed forces almost twice as much as planned. the minister of foreign affairs, chych i jan lipavsky, said that... the czech republic can collect 1.5 million shells for ukraine, almost twice as much as planned. earlier, the president of the czech republic, peter pavel, took the initiative to raise funds for ukraine to purchase 800,000 shells. the armed forces were starving for ammunition and there were publications in the western press that precisely the lack of artillery shells was the main reason why the armed forces of ukraine had to leave avdiivka in the donetsk region. shells for the czech republic of ukraine, the czech republic collects for ukraine. outside europe, several dozen countries joined the czech initiative financially. as we can see, this is already helping ukraine to fight

better because they know they will have a stockpile of fresh ammunition, which has changed their perspective on using their current stockpile. a retired lieutenant general joins our ether as deputy chief of the general staff zsu ihor romanenko. i congratulate you. i congratulate you. the plan of the czech president petr pavl envisaged the purchase of 800 thousand shells, now we are talking about 15 million. in your opinion, this is good news for ukraine, how much can it improve the situation? it can be improved, although in order for the situation to change significantly at the front, in the direction of ammunition, it is necessary to rise, at least to parity, because the main direction is armament. everywhere there is an advantage of the russians, aviation, artillery, armored vehicles, manpower, ammunition, therefore missiles,

in addition to missiles it should be said, missile weapons, so in order to change the situation, it means that it is necessary to change in the first place, why in the first place with ammunition, you go to the barricade, well, you have argued, now... why ammunition, because we have the means of their use by and large , by the way, you need to look at 800,000, it’s not all 800 thousand, 155 is the largest nativsky caliber , well, first of all, there is 155 and 105th nativsky, and it ’s half a million and 3000 is also important for us, the soviet ones that we have there are artillery tools for soviet ammunition. that is, it is important that for our artillery to work in the full range, and this is important, because professionally our ormas have a high level, because

the means that are from our allies, they are more accurate and more long-range, not much, but well, from the point of view of accuracy, it is very important, because if they lead, for example , a fight, then as a rule they win, for example, with swedish archers, there with french, well with any artillery, although they can somehow be differentiated even by foreign means, because among them there is one who before that, well whose weapon more adjusted and has higher indicators, for example, self-propelled. therefore, in principle, this is exactly the approach, both in terms of quantity and ammunition in the first place, but also

the means of striking, i would like to remind you why it is important that 80% of the damage to an enemy target is performed by artillery, 280, weight, specific weight, for the destruction of the enemy target, 80%, that is, if we reach at least parity in terms of ammunition, even taking into account the fact that we have fewer of these means. then the situation is changing, they are helping in this, they have planned, let's say, the french, we are expecting their arrival the president of france, who there announced up to 76 caesars, it would be very appropriate for them to appear, because if he was the last person to say a word here, he did, i mean, for example, guided bombs, which are better than the russian ones , because they additionally not

only plan. i wanted to clarify with you, you mentioned the parity of y' several times. passes, including between the ukrainian army and the army of the russian federation, however, our viewers, as well as me, sometimes do not understand what it is now, i.e. in percentage or in quantity an indicator of how much more ammunition the russian federation currently has, for example, at the current time, let's say, we had about 200 per day, and they

could afford somewhere around 10,000 or more, from 10 or more, although they had better times , when they used 50-70 thousand per day, now they are concentrating on more important directions for themselves, and well, there are not 10, but 15-20,000, and here, for example, 2 and 20 - that's what you feel the difference. and therefore it is necessary to raise there, well, first of all, millions of ponies are announced there, what if they produced it themselves, plus in a few months north korea supplies them with about 1.5 million projectiles, and so on, if we take into account the additions that the shahedami began to produce their own syran, then they have quite a lot of means of inflicting damage, and that's why

we. .. even if we do not raise this, it is very difficult to organize the issue, especially related to offensive actions, and it is very important for the defense, because we have been watching since the end of last year, unfortunately, they started conducting their strategic offensive operations, and we still can't do them stop, huh, mr. igor, do you have any idea where the czech republic will get these shells from, there were... three countries in the press, i saw south africa, north korea, turkey, obviously there are more of them and they even wrote that this there may be, let's say, russia's allies who want to remain in the shadows, that is, so that they do not know what you think about it, where these shells come from, and wherever they are from, it is important that they are advancing towards us, and why, as you and i discussed it closely, before that we talked

about these in the first place. three countries, well more of information open something that is unexpected, if, well, in the information field, which also applies to countries that are formally allies of the russian federation, this is an interesting example, because the approach that we often strongly feel that nothing but business, well, in this case, it suits us, we need shells, if they are collected there, someone is an ally there. that's it, it 's even simpler and shows more that there is a lot of propaganda in such alliances in russia with so -called allies, and fundamentally, that if they sell us or do not give us our to the allies, and then one way or another the ammunition appears with us, that's the main thing, so let the russians and their putler have a headache, understand.