in particular, the kurdish forces, whom iran constantly accuses of cooperating with israel, may arm the houthis with something, that is, it will most likely be a proxy response, i would not expect direct attacks here, because israel would hardly take such a risk now, if it were, oil has already jumped to the corresponding price, it is almost 90, so certain market mechanisms are also at work here, such as which, well, it is difficult to say who benefits and who does not, but it is obvious that for oil exporters, the situation here is one that they can still control. that is, it is one of such steps in the general confrontation between israel and iran, as on a large chessboard, where they will move certain pieces, but as long as they have key players and the existence of the states themselves is protected, that is, they will not fight directly, the iranians for now.

they can hardly allow it, and they should not do it from the point of view of national security considerations, as many analysts note, so we expect more of these proxy wars. well, right here, the question is this, mr. mykhailo yurano, now there is a choice, he needs to respond to the death of the general zahadiyas, we saw that they just arrange a farewell ceremony of such a level, that in principle cannot do without such an answer, he sang it himself. the republic, as you know, and here the question arises: either iran is acting with the help of hezbollah, opening the inevitable second front, but this could lead to the collapse of hezbollah lebanon, because the israeli army will be able to respond so harshly, and it is now clear that the united states of israel they cannot restrain, so this may be the end of lebanon, not even hezbollah as such, but on the other hand, you can strike with your own forces, rockets, shaheeds and not put hezbollah under attack by israel, and expect some kind of missile attack on your own territory. iran

will not get used to this, so what to choose? well, there are enough proxy forces to choose from that can simply be declared agents of zionism. you can safely destroy several objects in iraqi kurdistan and declare that there were zionist logistics centers there, arrest some agents, and so on. in principle, the level of propaganda aimed at the islamic republic of iran, its consumer, is, as they say, shavae. here is another... question: what is israel's benefit? and the advantage is that the democratic party now, especially after the attack on humanitarian organizations, in gaza, it, well, is beginning to think more or less about helping israel, yes, the status of an ally, but they are already trying to israel, so to speak, to wring his hands, to give him the red light for certain operations, here israel can, in principle, claim quite confidently.

look at what a huge threat we have to iran, iran can strike, that's it hizbullah, that is why we cannot lose, in fact, the support of our main ally, and the americans want it, they don’t want it, they will go this way, for now, so the israelis can fully understand their policy here, but as for the iranian strike, they and before that there were many reasons to attack israel, no one prevented them from doing so. to beat, they supplied, respectively, a joint bite there, hizbullah, hamas, well, i would not be, to be honest, sure that now the war with lebanon, it will be so easy for israel, it a second front will have to be opened, and there were a lot of stocks of missiles and everything else accumulated there, that is, this balance of power, well , no one will disturb it so significantly, this is far from the first war in the middle east from...

from which all forces come in principle plus-minus with the same face, in some respects satisfied, in some respects not, but with the same starting positions, even hamas, no one is talking about its complete destruction now, so here i would get away from some such apocalyptic predictions, at least for this situation , of course there are certain moments surprises, but in my opinion, there will be a blow to some israeli proxies or forces... which will be announced in such words. we would like to thank mykhailo yakubovych, an orientalist with whom we talked about the situation in the near east, we will keep an eye on it, because here we see that the situation is not easy. now we are going to take a break for just a few minutes, but please stay with us, and then we will continue our program with andrii. let's listen to people who suffer from... so

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to start negotiations on joining the eu. vitaly portnikov and guests of the project: we are bored because there is nothing to fight about. let's make it up. they help to understand the present. a project for those who care and think politclub every sunday at 20:10 at espresso. the premium sponsor of the national team represents. watch the news at 9 p.m. results of the week: a new major russian offensive on ukraine, intimidation or a real threat? mobilization in a new way and changing the rules for the military. from now on, the conscription age is reduced

to 25 years, the canceled status is limited to service, and conscripts and reservists can create a personal elect. office in the oberig system. deryban land of the ministry of defense. how did a market appear instead of housing for the military in bila tserkva? about this and much more already at 21 on espresso. the saturday political club returns to its own work after a short break. vitaly portnikov, andriy smoliy. we are now. live, and for the next 50 minutes we will talk with vitaly portnikov, analyze the most important events that concern ukraine, that concern the world, those that essentially determine, relatively speaking, our life today, and the first

topic , which is very much discussed, the new york times writes about it, a profile vice-premier from europe talks about it. integration of mrs. stefanyshyn, ukrainian politicians are talking about her, this is actually the topic of what allegedly at the summit to be held in... ukraine will not be invited to the north atlantic alliance. mr. vitaly, frankly speaking, i do not quite understand all this, as they say, the load of information, why? because we understand perfectly well that ukraine would hardly be accepted into nato. why does someone think that someone, or someone, relatively speaking, is shuffling. this topic, about the fact that, as you can see, nato is not waiting for ukraine there in june or in july or in august,

well, in my opinion, these are such rather harmful things, and it is obvious that we are currently cooperating with nato, that nato is our strategic partner today, but we also have to objectively understand why nato will not accept us now, in fact, and why, why. actually it will happen later, we hope it will happen, what is all this for, these things are being discussed now, well, because there is a large part of nato member countries who believe that the decision should be made already in washington, and that in fact, the corridor of opportunity for ukraine can be closed if you imagine that in november 2024 donald trump will be elected president of the united states, in general the question may arise as to whether a problem will arise. ukraine's accession to nato during his presidential term is one point, it is another point to

admit that ukraine's invitation to nato is not nato accession, it is a procedure that allows us to talk about security guarantees, and we have talked about it many times, not only we were told by leading western politicians that, of course, ukraine is unlikely to become a member of nato during its war with russia, however, if it receives an invitation to nato, this... will be a signal to vladimir putin that he he will not be able to get at least the entire ukrainian territory, that the goals of his war, they are in principle unattainable, that he can at most, in the best option for himself , be satisfied with some amount of ukrainian territory that he occupies and cannot and will not be able to protect from the defense forces of ukraine. they talked about the option, which you remember, was discussed for quite a long time, which was proposed by the former general secretary. rasmussen that ukraine receives a security guarantee for this territory, which is not currently occupied

by russian troops, but again for for this to happen, ukraine must receive an invitation to nato. it cannot obtain these guarantees automatically. what can ukraine get? instead of these security guarantees, we can look at these agreements that ukraine is currently signing with western countries, and which , in principle, are now quite serious. are not advertised by the president's office, but they are about nothing, no security guarantees, they do not contain, they say, if they will, if they will fight with you, then you will receive weapons from us, you will receive everything from us necessary, just fight, we guarantee you, even if our governments change, even if there is a negative attitude to this in the parliaments, we have an agreement, you will get it, fight, and we will look at it, it looks like this by and large, in some agreements... about security, and there are no such guarantees, well, security agreements,

aid agreements, let's call it that, so there is a real thing, that is, there are options, option number one: ukraine receives an invitation to nato and at the same time obtains security guarantees for the territories controlled by the legitimate the ukrainian government, option two: ukraine will receive an invitation to nato, to nato guarantees of danger, security, not ot... ukraine receives nothing, receives some kind of road map with unclear terms, and ukraine will be told, as president biden said, that it is necessary, necessary the condition of ukraine's accession to nato will be its victory over russia, here is an interesting moment, we have a job in general. victory to talk in more detail, because we, too, it seems to me, are all the time in some

certain, as i said, terno-terminological misunderstandings, what i mean, for us, for the majority of people who grew up in the soviet, ideological and terminological context, as well as for russians, victory is victory. this is when the victorious army enters the capital of the defeated country over the seat of power of this country hangs his restore order there, at least create an occupation zone and tell the population of the occupied country how to live, the soviet troops and the troops of the allies in berlin, this is a symbol of victory, it should not be assumed that we are not affected by this ideology, ukraine in this ideology actually lived, if you like, until

2005, relatively speaking, if not later, if you remember what all our victory parades looked like. in kyiv, i am not talking about moscow, well, that means victory for us is at least if we go to the borders of 1991, it is better that russia collapses, you hear what our compatriots always say, we will go out, it will collapse, we understand that we will not reach moscow, then it is necessary that moscow itself somehow collapses, and this is a victory. as the russians say, victory is if we we occupy all of ukraine, enter kyiv, destroy the so-called nazis, and this is just territory. this, historical russia, if it does not obey us, we are all this, well, we must destroy kharkiv, as volodymyr solovyov says, we must destroy zaporizhzhia there, they are doing it, by and large they acted in the same way during the second world war, and not only with the german cities, and no, and the hitlerites acted like that when they destroyed warsaw, this is victory, to destroy the disloyal population

together with the cities where they live is a great idea, in the west victory looks different, in victory in the west - i'll finish it. military actions, with the signing of a political agreement, and the winner is the one who chooses the best conditions in this political agreement for himself, and not the one who captures the enemy's capital. the united states was defeated in vietnam, not because the republic of south vietnam was eliminated as a result, it was already a consequence, but because in the peace agreement with north vietnam, the united states did not achieve this. i would say the terms they were counting on, that's why it's called a defeat: the americans weren't going to capture hanoi, this is the south, north vietnam was going to take over this garden, and so for president biden, when he talks about the victory of ukraine, it means that at some point there will be talks between russia and ukraine, in which the presidents of both countries, vladimir putin and

volodymyr zelenskyi will put his signatures, only this one, during these negotiations in ukraine. there must be a strong position so that it can protect its sovereignty and right to choose, and this is absolutely not what the average ukrainian thinks, because he does not even imagine a handshake the president of ukraine with the president of russia, and i think president biden imagines, and this is a problem, that when we hear biden speak, we think, and as he sees our victory, he wants us to reach moscow, and after that. .. can you take us to nato? no, he wants a settlement that guarantees the united states that the russian federation does not claim anything more in ukraine, and that it will not come into conflict with nato after ukraine is accepted into nato, that it recognizes that ukraine is a part of ukraine, which will succeed to protect, i hope that it will be all of ukraine within the borders of 1991, but no one

knows this, the war is just beginning, or nothing important has happened, as you understand. because the countries, both countries are not yet at the level of exhaustion, the main thing will start when there will be political, social and demographic exhaustion of both countries, and we are on the way to this exhaustion, both ukraine and russia, we are just walking on this terrible bridge to the abyss, because war is always such a situation, so at this moment the west must be sure, they will sit down, sign, and then they will say, we are taking ukraine to nato, we are not in any danger of a nuclear war between the united states. russia, which will lead to the death of tens of millions of people, will not exist, whether this position is correct or not is another matter, i do not have absolute confidence, by the way, that this position can be agreed, because i believe that in this situation russia can fight, well, not to infinity, but to the exhaustion of its own resources, but this is the view of biden and this is the view of chancellor scholz, and here

the question arises, why we with these views do not we have to argue because every month of delay. every few months of delay is the road to serious political, social and demographic problems in the country, look, we are now the president there after nine months, he signed the law on reducing the mobilization, and everyone says that it is very necessary, i absolutely i am not going to argue here, because the armed forces are absolutely clear about the number of mobilized people they need, but there is a problem that we have people... that is, my peers, they were born in soviet conditions, there people are 10 years younger than me, when, in principle , the birth situation was stable, and then there was a dip,

then it began to level off, now there is a new dip, which means that the more we lower the mobilization age, the more we have real guarantees that that the ukrainian nation will not recover after the war, well, it's just that, you can, you can sigh here, you can talk, but otherwise nothing. you can't do it, i can, it's mathematics, yes, that in principle the demographic victory over the ukrainian people is not from the russian state, but from the russian side people is being achieved literally before our eyes, but we are witnesses of this victory, which is very dangerous, and by the way, the russians are defeating not only us, they are defeating the buryats, they are defeating the tuvans, they are defeating the chechens, in principle, thanks to this war, they are eliminating all preconditions for probable decay. russia, about which we talk so much, because if there is no people, this is the stalinist approach, there is no problem, and by the way, the same with ukrainians, if ukrainians turn into a small nation that will

rebuild their completely destroyed cities, not having the demographic potential for this, in principle we can say that russia's civilizational victory is in putin's pocket, he is achieving it, the west, why am i talking about this, the west cannot believe... that ukraine is capable of waging war on exhaustion to infinity, and believes, and when we say the war will continue for another year, two more, three more, five more, it may be, the question arises of exit, mathematical exit from this war, who will come out of it, what will happen to the ukrainian people at the exit, and to say that it depends only on ukrainians, well, this is not fair, because again, of course, it is possible for the americans or someone else to be absolutely equal, 40 million of us. whether 20 or 20, but you know, as a person of jewish origin, i told you, during the second world war, it was also absolutely everyone, it was all the same, how many jews would remain, and

what if there were few left, now there i am the jewish people there are about 15 million people around the world, it would be just 35 or 40 if it weren't for the holocaust, and for the americans or i don't know the french or for poles it is. and for the jews, these are destroyed families and those people who did not give birth to anyone, because they were destroyed, and they did not leave any descendants, and it is simply necessary to understand that this is a very similar situation, and russia, which, in principle, is such a duplicate of the hitler's reich, in terms of ideology and approaches, it simply restores this situation, one might say. and this is a win-win option, if you are not held by the hand, and here we must clearly understand, for us, putin is some kind of obsessive, who does not know what he

is doing, he knows perfectly well what he is doing, he is all these tables, all these numbers, i you i assure you, he sits and counts at night, he is the only thing that this person is able to do almost flawlessly, work with documents, but he works, as a result, his work with documents also perishes and does not leave behind children. and grandchildren, living people, our compatriots with you, well, in this case i completely agree with you, unfortunately, unfortunately, we see that part of even ukrainian society and the societies of other countries, they do not understand this, we see it , and and and the leaders of other countries do not understand this, but we approach another, again after all, such information appears now, constantly circulates... that the west, that the leaders of the nato countries somewhere in the far, far,

as they say, far drawer, are still discussing the issue of whether it is possible that ukraine should be accepted into nato , or at least guarantee something to ukraine within the controlled territories that we have now, and here we are again this week. from the foreign media , we hear this information that such an issue is allegedly being discussed behind the scenes somewhere, and here another dissonance arises, that ukrainian society is very often not ready for such things, that is, we see how people who were in 22-23 years, maybe, perhaps, there was such an overdose of such information . about the ukrainian victory, about the fact that we should go to the borders and so on and the like, reach moscow, reach belgarad, and, unfortunately, we still hear these and all these things from ukrainian experts, from the ukrainian

media, i i think... that's wrong, because we need to talk about constructive things now, like what you said just now, and here's the formula, as real as it can be now to be discussed and how realistically ukraine can be pushed to such a formula that, conditionally speaking, we recognize the state of ukraine in those borders in which it is legally. there is, but, but we realize that this part is now, at least for now, occupied, and to extrapolate it all, like, for example, germany, yes, which was divided, or north korea and south korea, which are divided, like, like now this all fits into the context of the possible vision of the world leaders for further actions in relation to ukraine, none, seriously, i believe that this

multip'. that is, in fact, when we hear these forecasts, it is an interesting thing, it really needs to be discussed, when we hear all these proposals, we have to realize a simple thing, these are echoes of this very history, do we accept ukraine into nato, or give it security guarantees , such as received by sweden and finland, remember when they applied to nato, but only for this territory, which... in principle is controlled by the legitimate ukrainian government, or even more, for the territory that russia does not claim federation, this approach can also be applied, that we give security guarantees for the entire territory, except for the autonomous republic of crimea, sevastopol, donetsk, luhansk, kherson and zaporizhzhia regions in their territorial borders, because they are encroached by russia, what is in their constitution , the fact that they have constitutions is absolutely, i consider

idiocy, to be honest. but it can be, that is, western politicians can think about it, but compare it with the german democratic republic and the federal republic of germany or with south korea or the north you can't, do you know why? the territory of the german democratic republic was not claimed by any other state, nor was the territory of south korea, it was a conflict between two conditionally independent, sovereign states. that could interact with each other, that is, the republic of korea, as the democratic people's republic of korea, they may not consider themselves states, but south korea does not consider north korea to be a state, north korea has not considered the south to be a state until now, but now began to count after giving up politics into disunity, the same was the case between germany and the gdr, each of these countries claimed

territory. depending on a certain time ferns generally refused diplomatic relations between countries that were in diplomatic relations with the gdr, such as china and taiwan, it was approximately, but the most important thing is that they were sovereign governments. now imagine a completely different situation in the korean war. why not? north korea becomes an autonomous republic within the russian federation. korean and the ussr, and why not, the tuvan republic, that's tova part of the russian federation, how does it differ from korea, it is quite possible that it is the same state, the former tovinsk people's republic, annexed by russia, the soviet union and included in the russian federation as an autonomous region, and then a republic, everything is possible if you wish, you can imagine that's all, it would really be a different situation, south korea would be in a different situation, because it claimed to... not

to the territory of the sovereign dprk, to the territory of russia. in your opinion, the americans could conclude some kind of agreement with south korea about military cooperation, to keep troops there, if south korea emphasized that it is ready to liberate territories that are an integral part of the soviet union by military means or otherwise. well, definitely not. we have to understand this, and now let's imagine that the same thing would have happened with the german democratic republic, that... the soviet union would not have created people's democracies from these countries of central europe, but would have included them all in the union republics. the federal republic of germany could, of course, join nato, but in its constitution it did not then emphasize that it does not claim this territory. and what's more, i think that they should not join nato. they would think for a long time what to do with it. so now the current situation: putin violated international law, annexed our

territory. what does it mean that they will take us on?