therefore, certain market mechanisms also work here, which, well, it is difficult to say who benefits and who does not, but it is obvious that for oil exporters, the situation here is one that they can still control, that is, this is one of such steps in the general confrontation between israel and iran , as on a large chessboard, where they will move certain pieces, but as long as they have key players and the existence of the states themselves. protected, i.e. they will not fight directly, the iranians can hardly allow it at the moment, and they should not do it from the point of view of national security considerations, as defined by many analysts, that is why we expect these proxy wars to continue, well, here is the question , mr. mykhailo, iran now has a choice, it needs to respond to the death of general zahadiya, we saw that they are just holding a ceremony...

level, which in principle cannot do without such an answer, it was sung by the ayatollah of armenia himself, it happened several times in the history of the islamic republic, by the way, as you know, and here the question arises, whether iran is acting with the help of hezbollah, opening a temporary second front , but this could lead to the collapse of hezbollah and lebanon, because the israeli army will be able to respond so harshly, and it is now clear that the united states cannot be contained by israel , so this could be the end of lebanon, not even hezbollah as such, but the other side . you can strike with your own forces, rockets, shaheeds and not put hezbollah under attack by israel, and expect some kind of missile attack on iran's own territory, don't get used to it, well, what to choose, well, there are enough proxy forces to choose from, which can simply be declared agents of zionism, you can relax destroy several facilities in iraqi kurdistan and declare that there were zionist logistics centers there, arrest some agents, and so on. in principle, the level

of propaganda aimed at the islamic republic of iran, its consumer, is, as they say, hidden. here is another question, what is the benefit of israel? and the benefit is that the democratic party now, especially after the attack on humanitarian organizations in gaza, is beginning to think more or less about helping israel, right? the status of an ally, but they are already trying to israel, so to speak to speak, to wring one's hands. to give him the red light for certain operations, here israel can, in principle, quite confidently declare to the american side, look at what a huge threat we have to iran, that iran can strike, that is hezbollah, that is why we cannot lose, in fact, the support of our main ally, and the americans want it, they don't want it, they will go this way for now, so the israelis here can fully understand their policy. well, but as far as

the iranian attack is concerned, they had many reasons to attack israel even before that, no one gave them prevented him from doing so, they supplied the houthis there, hizbullah, hamas, well, and frankly speaking, i would not be sure that now the war with lebanon, it will be so easy for israel, it will have to open a second front, and in there were a lot of stocks of rockets, everything else was accumulated. that is, this balance of forces, well, no one will disturb it so significantly, this is far from the first war in the middle east, from which all forces emerge in principle, plus or minus, with the same face , in some ways satisfied, in some ways not, but with the same from the very original positions, even hamas is not talking about its complete destruction now, so i would

get away from any such apocalyptic predictions, at least for this situation, of course there are certain moments, surprises, but in my opinion, there will be a blow to some kind of proxy forces, israeli or sowing, to be declared such proxim. we would like to thank mykhailo yakubovych, an orientalist with whom we talked about the situation in the near east, we will keep an eye on it, because here we see that the situation is not easy. now we will break literally for a few minutes, but please stay with us, and we will continue our program with andrii. what is bahmud? bahmud is a place of fear and a place of bravery. no matter what anyone says, bravery is not the absence of fear. bakhmut is an adventure that will stay with us until the end. who are they? there are many of them, and they are strong and

brave, they are the guardians of the traditions and martial arts of their ancestors, they are boys who never cry. lem. mom, don't cry. a book by the writer olena cherninka. a mother's book about her son, a hero who is one of the the first volunteered to defend ukraine and went missing in the vast expanses of donbas. quarter-finals of the champions league only on meigo. real, man city and psg. these matches will shake the entire football world, tune in on april 9 and 10 exclusively on meggogo, there are 15% discounts on linux forte capsules in pharmacies, plantain, save money, if your throat is not ok, make a snicker, make it ok, choose the taste,

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political club returns to its work after a short break. vitaly portnikov, andriy resin we are live now. and for the next 50 minutes, we will talk with vitaly portnikov, analyze the most important events that concern ukraine, that concern the world, those that essentially determine, relatively speaking, our life today, and the first topic, which is very similar discussed, the new york times writes about her, the profile vice-prime minister for european integration, ms. stefanyshina, speaks about her, ukrainian politicians talk about her, this is actually the topic of what is supposedly at the summit, which will take place in the summer of the nato summit, ukraine will not be invited to the north atlantic alliance. mr. vitaly, frankly speaking, i do not

quite understand all this, as they say, the load of information, why? because we already understand very well that... ukraine would hardly be accepted into nato, why does anyone think, or someone, or someone, relatively speaking, shuffles this topic about the fact that, you see, nato is not waiting for ukraine there in june, or in july or august, well, in my opinion, these are quite harmful things, and it is obvious that we are now cooperating with nato, that nato is our strategic partner today, but... but we also have to objectively understand why nato will not accept us now, in fact, and why, why actually it will happen later, we hope it will happen, what is it for everything, these things are currently being discussed, well

, because there is a large part of nato member countries who believe that the decision should be made already in washington, and that in fact the corridor of opportunity for ukraine can be closed if... imagine that in november in 2024 , the president of the united states will be elected donald trump, the question may generally arise as to whether the problem of ukraine's accession to nato will arise. in his presidential term, it is one moment, another moment that the accession, that the invitation of ukraine to nato is not the accession to nato. this is a procedure that allows you to talk about security guarantees. and we have talked about it many times, not only us leading western politicians, about the fact that, of course, ukraine is unlikely to become a member of nato during its war with russia. however, if it receives an invitation to nato, it will be a signal vladimir putin. that he will not be able to obtain at least the entire ukrainian territory, that

the goals of his war are, in principle , unattainable, that he can at most, in the best option for himself, be satisfied with some amount of ukrainian territory that he occupies and cannot and will not be able to protect from the defense forces of ukraine . there was talk of an option, you remember, that was discussed for quite some time, which was proposed by former nato secretary general anders von rasmussen, that... getting a security guarantee for this area that is not occupied now by russian troops, but again, in order for this to happen, ukraine must receive an invitation to nato, it cannot receive these guarantees automatically, what can ukraine receive instead of these security guarantees, we can look at these agreements that ukraine now has with western countries, signs, and which in principle are now quite seriously promoted by the president's office, but they are... nothing about anything, no security guarantees, and they do not contain, they say, if they will,

if they will fight with you, then you get weapons from us, you will receive everything you need from us, just fight, we guarantee you, even if our governments change, even if there is a negative attitude towards this in the parliaments, we have an agreement, you will receive it, fight, and we let's see, it looks like this in the grand scheme of things, in some security agreements this... is not there, and these guarantees are not there, well security agreements, in the aid agreements, let's call it that, so there is a real thing, that is, there are options , option number one: ukraine receives an invitation to nato, and at the same time, it receives security guarantees for the territories controlled by the legitimate ukrainian government, option two: ukraine receives an invitation to nato, to nato it does not receive security guarantees, but... it sees a signal that ukraine is already considered a country that will soon join nato. option

three: ukraine gets nothing, gets some road map with unclear terms, and ukraine will be told, as president biden said, that a necessary, necessary condition for ukraine's accession to nato will be its victory over russia. here is an interesting point, we have to talk about this victory in more detail. because we too, it seems to me, all the time are in certain, as i said, terminological misunderstandings, which i mean, for us, for the majority of people who grew up in the soviet, ideological and terminological context, as well as for russians, victory, that is victory, is when... the victorious army enters the capital of the defeated country,

hangs its flag over the seat of power of this country, establishes its order there, at least creates an occupation zone and tells the population captured country, how he lives, soviet troops and allied troops in berlin, this is a symbol of victories, it should not be assumed that we are not affected by this ideology. ukraine actually lived in this, if you will , until 2005, relatively speaking, if not later, if you remember what all our victory parades looked like in kyiv, i am not talking about moscow, well, then, for us, victory is at least, if we go to the borders of 1991, it is better that russia collapses, you hear what our compatriots always say, we we will leave, it will collapse, we understand that we will not reach moscow, then we need moscow itself. somehow collapsed, and this is a victory. what do the russians say? victory is if we occupy the whole of ukraine, enter kyiv,

destroy the so-called nazis, and this is simply the territory of ukraine of this, er, historical russia, if it does not obey us, we are all this, well, we must destroy kharkiv, as volodymyr says solovyov, zaporozhye must be destroyed there, they are doing it, by and large they acted in exactly the same way during the second world war, and not only with german cities, and no, and the hitlerites acted this way when they destroyed warsaw. in the west, victory is the end of hostilities . with the signing of a political agreement, and the winner is the one who chooses the best conditions in these political agreements for himself, and not the one who captures the enemy's capital. the united states was defeated in vietnam, not because the republic of south vietnam was eliminated as a result, that was already a consequence, but because in the peace agreement with north

vietnam, the united states did not achieve what i would say , those conditions on which... they calculated, that's why it's called a defeat, the americans weren't going to capture hanoi, it was south-north vietnam that was going to capture this gon. and so for president biden, when he talks about the victory of ukraine, it means that at some point there will be negotiations between russia and ukraine, at which the presidents of both countries, volodymyr putin and volodymyr zelensky , will put their signatures. only this, during these negotiations, ukraine should have a strong position. so that it can protect its sovereignty and right to choose, and this is absolutely not what the average ukrainian thinks, because he doesn't even imagine the president of ukraine shaking hands with the president of russia, and president biden, i think, does, and this is the problem that when we hear biden, we think, how does he see

our victory , he wants us to reach moscow, and after that we can be taken by donat, no, he wants there to be a settlement that guarantees the united states that the russian federation does not claim anything more in ukraine, and that after accepting ukraine will not join nato in a conflict with nato she recognizes that ukraine and the part of ukraine that can be defended, i hope that it will be all of ukraine within the borders of 1991, but no one knows, the war is just beginning, or nothing has happened, the main thing, as you understand, because both countries. countries are not yet at the level of exhaustion, but the main thing will begin when there will be political, social and demographic exhaustion of both countries, and we are on the way to this exhaustion, both ukraine and russia, we are simply walking along this terrible bridge to the abyss, because the war - it is always such a situation, yes, yes, in this one moment the west must be sure, they will sit down, sign and then say, we are taking ukraine

to nato, we are not in any danger of a nuclear war between the united states and russia, which will lead to the death of tens of millions of people will not be there, this position is correct, it is not or not, that is another question, i do not have absolute confidence, by the way, that you can agree with this position, because i believe that in this situation russia can fight, well not to infinity, but to the exhaustion of its own resources, but this is biden's view and this is the view chancellor scholz, and here the question arises why we should not argue with these views, because every month of delay, every few months of delay. this is the road to serious political, social and demographic problems in the country, look, we are now the president there in nine months, he signed the law on lowering the mobilization age to 25, and everyone says that it is very necessary, i am absolutely not going here to argue, because the armed forces

absolutely know how many mobilized they need, but there is a problem that in we people who are 20-25 years old there, remember all this, these are people born in the 90s, when we had a demographic decline, there are four times less than people who are 40-45 years old, i.e. my peers, they were born in soviet conditions, people there are 10 years younger than me, when, in principle, there was a stable situation with births, and then there was a dip, then it began to level off, now there is a new dip, which means that the more we reduce the ... mobilization age, the more we have real guarantees that the ukrainian nation will not recover after the war, well, it’s just possible, you can sigh here, you can talk, but otherwise you can’t do anything, i can, it’s mathematics, yes, that in principle a demographic victory over the ukrainian people, not from the russian state, but on the part of the russian people is achieved literally before our eyes, but we are witnesses of this

very dangerous victory, and by the way, the russians are not only defeating us, they are defeating buryattivo. they defeat the tuvans, they defeat the chechens, in principle, thanks to this war, they eliminate all prerequisites for the probable collapse of russia, about which we talk so much, because if there is no people, this is the stalinist approach, there is no problem, and by the way, the same with ukrainians, if ukrainians turn into a small nation that will rebuild their completely destroyed cities, not having the demographic potential for it, then in principle... you can say that russia's civilizational victory is in putin's pocket, he is achieving it. west, why am i talking about this. the west cannot believe that ukraine is capable of leading. a war of attrition to infinity, and believes, and when we say, the war will continue for another year, two more, three more, five more, it may be, the question of exit, mathematical

exit from this war arises, who will come out of it, what will happen to the ukrainian people at the exit, and to say that it depends only on the ukrainians, but this is dishonest, because again, of course, it is possible for the americans or, who else, absolutely everything is the same, 40 million in us or 20? or 20, but you know, as a person of jewish origin, i told you, during the second world war, too, everything happened to absolutely everyone it doesn't matter how many jews will remain, and what if there are few left, now there are about 15 million jewish people around the world, there would be just 35 or 40 if it weren't for the holocaust, and for americans or for i don't know , for the french or for the poles, this is arithmetic, but for the jews... this is destroyed families, and those people who did not give birth to anyone, because they were destroyed and did not leave behind descendants, and you just need

to understand that this is a very similar situation , and russia, which in principle is such a duplicate of the hitler reich, in terms of ideology and approaches, it simply it can be said to restore this situation, and it is a win-win option. if you are not held by the hand, and here we must clearly understand, for us, putin is some kind of obsessive, who does not know what he is doing, he knows perfectly well what he is doing, he is all these tables, all these numbers, i assure you , sits and counts at night, he, the only thing this person can do almost flawlessly, work with documents, he works, as a result, his work with documents also perishes and does not leave behind children and grandchildren, living people on... with you are a compatriot, well here in this case i am i absolutely agree with you, unfortunately, unfortunately, we see that part of even ukrainian society and the societies of other countries, they

do not understand this, we see this, and the leaders of other countries do not understand this, but we approach something else, again, there is now, there is constantly circulating such information that... the west, that the leaders of the nato countries are somewhere far away, in the far, as they say, far away drawer, after all, they are discussing the question of whether it is possible that ukraine should accept in nato, or at least guarantee ukraine something within the limits of those controlled territories that we have now, and this week we are again from foreign countries. we hear this information about the fact that such an issue is supposedly being discussed behind the scenes somewhere, and here another dissonance arises, that ukrainian society is very often not ready for

such things, that is, we see how people who were in 22-23 can , maybe there was such an overdose of this information about the ukrainian victory about that. that we have to go to the borders and so on and the like, reach moscow, reach belgrad, and unfortunately we still hear these and all these things from ukrainian experts, on behalf of the ukrainian media, i think this is wrong, because we need to talk about constructive things now, like what you said, and just now, and here is such a formula, how realistically it can be discussed now, and how realistically ukraine can be push. to such a formula that, conditionally speaking, we recognize the state of ukraine in those borders in which it

legally exists, but, but we realize that this part is now, at least for the time being, occupied, and to extrapolate all this, like, for example, germany, yes, which was divided, or north korea and south korea, which are divided, that's how, how by... now this all fits into the context of the possible vision of the world leaders for further actions in relation to ukraine, nothing serious, i believe that this is a cartoon, that is, it is in fact, that's when we hear these forecasts, this is an interesting thing, it really needs to be discussed, when we hear all these proposals, we have to realize a simple thing, these are echoes of this very history, admitting ukraine to nato, or... e gives my security guarantees, such as received sweden and finland, remember when they applied donat, but only to this territory, which in principle exists.

controlled by the legitimate ukrainian government, or even more, to the territory that is not claimed by the russian federation, this approach can also be applied, which gives security guarantees to the entire territory, except for the autonomous republic of crimea, sevastopol, donetsk, luhansk, kherson and zaporizhzhia regions in their territorial borders, because they are encroached upon by russia, what their constitutions are, i think this is absolutely idiocy, to be honest, but it can be so, that is, the westerners... can think about it, but it is impossible to compare it with the german democratic republic and the federal republic of germany or with south korea or the north. you don’t know why the territory of the german democratic republic was not claimed by any other state on the territory of south korea either, it was a conflict between two conditionally independent, sovereign states that could

to interact among themselves, there is the republic of korea, there is the democratic people's republic of korea, they may not consider themselves states, but south korea does not consider north korea to be a state, north korea to at that time, she did not consider the south a state, but now she has already started to consider it after she refused the politicians of separation. the same was the case between the federal republic of germany and the gdr, each of these countries claimed the territory of the opposite, for a certain time, the federal republic of germany. generally refused diplomatic relations between countries that were, in diplomatic relations with the gdr, as china and taiwan were approximately, but the most important thing is that they were sovereign governments. now imagine a completely different situation in the korean war. why not? north korea becomes an autonomous republic within russian federation. korean assr. why

not? the tuvan republic is a part of the russian federation, how does it differ from korea, it is quite possible that it is the same state, the former tuvan people's republic, annexed by the russian soviet union and included in the russian federation as an autonomous region, and then a republic, anything is possible if you wish to imagine everything, it would really be a different situation, south korea would be in a different situation, because it did not claim the territory sovereignly. dprk, on ​​the territory of russia in your opinion, the americans could conclude some kind of agreement on military cooperation with south korea, keep troops there, if south korea emphasized that it is ready, by military means or in some other way, to liberate the territories that are an integral part of the soviet union. well, definitely not. we have to understand that. and now let's imagine that the same thing would happen with the german democratic republic. that the soviet union

would not create. from these countries of central europe, states, people's democracies, included all of them in the union republics. federal the republic of germany could, of course, join nato, but it would have to emphasize in its constitution that it does not claim this territory. and what's more, i think that they wouldn't have taken it anyway. they would think for a long time what to do with it. so now the current situation: putin violated international law, annexed our territory. what does it mean for us to be part of nato if we gave up our own territory, and why only this one, how is that, and if we gave up this territory, where do we have guarantees that russian troops will not enter kharkiv region is not annexed either, but now let's forget about us and look at the western countries, they also recognize that the territory annexed by russia is the territory of russia, how is that anyway?

possible to do from the point of view of international law. you can imagine the situation, again, i repeat: ukraine is accepted into nato. these territories are considered ukrainian, but we agree that they can be liberated only politically, not militarily. ukraine also agrees with this. a separate document is signed. on the line clashes are nato troops, but no one ever. will not force ukraine to give up its constitutional territories, because if this happens, this is the end of the world in the literal sense of the word, it will mean that territorial changes can take place in europe, by force, and then again, what kind of signal are you sending to vladimir putin in this situation, this is the territory of nato, and this is the territory.