in the future it will change so very significantly, except that there will be variations again, which are far from the first year and not the first time. there is a lot of talk now about the so -called operation of erdogan's successor, and actually this successor is called zyatya, selchuk, selchuk bayraktar, his name and surname, i think it is known to many ukrainians, yes. by the actual unmanned aerial vehicles, which we discussed so often at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, but if we return to this operation successor, it means that erdogan in in 2028, he may no longer run for president and in fact promote his son-in-law, who, by the way, is quite influential and quite ranked, if you look... according to

the polls, then in fact he occupies one of the top places there and can , conditionally speaking, to replace erdogan, so in a few years, here is your opinion, as far as possible, well , to make forecasts now for the year 27-28, it will be very optimistic, this is the first thing, and the second moment, however it may be , the following years will pass under such intimidation by the third world. war, large global conflicts, terrorist threats, and if erdoğan manages to convince his electorate that such and such an approach is necessary, that is, the renewal of power, but the preservation of all these security guarantees for the turkish people, that is, that turkey is in the western bloc, and turkey, at the same time, is not takes part in some such military actions that did not directly

threaten syria, yes, it is quite possible, but now to forecast the 27th-28th year, and it seems to me that it will be an even more ungrateful task, especially since it is possible the appearance of new ones politicians, the promotion of the same ones they already have, for example, kylych daroglu, no one would have thought five years ago that he would win almost half of the votes in the turkish elections, then he won and left politics, so turkish politics is not always here ... so predictable, let's not forget that after all, turkey is not russia, it remains a democratic country, despite all its disadvantages. by the way, this is such an important point, it seems to me, mr. mykhailo, because many have lost this understanding during these decades of erdogan's rule. that the political landscape can change so seriously in turkey. it seemed that erdogan succeeded in creating a system of so-called democratic governance, where there are elections and there is never a change of power. yes, on the one hand, and we

can see that his neighboring countries are far from democratic, let's start with the same azerbaijan, well, they are also holding elections, further east there is a clear situation, turkmenistan, then the turkic world in general, he mainly relies on such leadership , it exists, it is a complex very geopolitical and cultural phenomenon, but in the case of turkish, after all we know that democracies work in these places, it is a market economy in a country with such developed trade relations, investments in business, with such export-import balances, to imagine it as undemocratic, its market, its tourist infrastructure, everything else, will extremely difficult, that is, yes, there is a certain limit to which authoritarianism operates, there is persecution of dissidents, there are certain force decisions, there are un...

unstudied or, on the contrary, unsolved issues of the so -called coup of the 15th year, there are also other issues, but we see that the turkish people, especially the urban population, it remains true, well, about this kemal tradition, that is , the idea of ​​oneself as a citizen, a citizen who has the right rights, a citizen who must go and vote, from young to old participation in politics, that's how... it happens with such a local cultural accent, turkish rallies, then elections, everything related to political agitation, it is extremely noisy, specific, but it is there, that is, it is already a layer of turkish culture, not only political, but also everyday, and imagine , that turkey is turning into that azerbaijan itself, or somewhere more remote, well, this is only in the case of some very powerful internal and external forces. and they are

external threats, as well as the earthquake that shook turkey, but the reaction to it was, accordingly, the kind that was still at the height of the problematic, but... in such key moments of a working democracy, one of the key such international events, which in fact, including often discussed here in ukraine, i believe that this is also one of the very important news, events that happened this week, this is a strike by the israeli armed forces on to the iranian embassy in damascus, yes... actually in this facility, at this facility, several high-ranking officers were killed there, it is alleged that there are two generals, five lower-ranking officers, and then information about

the possible response of iran, israel and not only israel, actually those forces that support israel, essentially the entire information space. shakes from the fact that here and there, then 48 hours, then 72 hours, right? in this context, what should we expect, whether iran will escalate or not to wait for a certain moment in order to strike, yes, and how israel will act in the future in this context, because this is essentially political and military ping-pong. he can, in particular , strike extremely hard at the world order, and therefore at ukraine, including at the support of ukraine. well, first of all, the netanyahu government and the military-political leadership of israel knew perfectly well that when it launched this

attack, especially an attack on a building that was essentially part of the iranian consulate, this was a serious step, and israel perfectly understood that iran will make at least... certain statements and certain actions, who is zaghidiy, one of the leaders of the islamic revolution guards corps, who was destroyed there, he is a man comparable in scale, calm suleimani, one of the key chains in the connections between iran and palestine, in particular the hamas movement, then hezbollah in lebanon, that is , this is a rather important figure, and israel , of course, knocks out such figures, the second moment... 48 hours have already passed, the iranian response, well, which was predicted there with ballistics and drones directed at israel , unlikely maybe the quds day passed, the so-called jerusalem day in iran, which they celebrate or celebrate every year there were many slogans about

the fight against world zionism, anti-americanism and various intelligence and so on, this is classic in them, but at the moment it is expected rather than everything is a blow... according to some israeli proxy, last time similar actions were answered by the kurdish resistance forces in iraq, and now there are talks between raisi and asha, who is the prime minister of iraq, and it is obvious that somewhere they are agreeing on joint actions in that region, that is, in particular, i expect an answer in the same way for iraq, for pro-western forces there in the north, or in syria for pro-western, in particular, kurdish forces, which... iran constantly accuses of cooperating with israel, maybe it will arm the houthis with something, that is, it is faster than everything will be a proxy answer, i would not expect direct attacks here, because israel would hardly take such a risk now, if it were , oil has already jumped to the corresponding price,

it is almost 90, so certain market mechanisms are also at work here, which, well, it is difficult to say to whom for. no, but it is obvious that for the oil exporters, the situation here is one that they can still control, that is, this is one of the steps in the general confrontation between israel and iran, like on a large chessboard, where they will move certain pieces, but as long as they have key players and the existence of the states themselves is protected, that is, they will not fight directly, the iranians can hardly afford it at the moment. and they should not do this from the point of view of purely security considerations, as many analysts note, so we expect more of these proxy wars. well, right there here is the question, mr. mykhailo, iran now has a choice, it needs to respond to the death of general zahadiya, we saw that they

just arrange farewell ceremonies of such a level that they cannot do without such an answer, it was sung by the ayatollah of amenia himself, this happened several times in history. about the islamic republic, as you know, and here the question arises: either iran is acting with the help of hezbollah, opening a temporary second front, but this can lead to the collapse of hezbollah, lebanon, because the israeli army will have maybe... to respond so harshly and now it is clear that the united states cannot contain israel , so this could be the end of lebanon, not even hizbollah as such. and on the other hand, you can strike with your own forces, missiles, shaheeds and not place hezbollah under attack by israel, and expect some kind of missile attack on its own territory, iran is not used to this, so what to choose? well, there are enough proxy forces to choose from, which can simply be declared agents of zionism, and can be easily destroyed. several objects in iraqi kurdistan and declare that they were there logistics centers of the zionists, to arrest

some agents and so on. in principle, the level of propaganda aimed at the islamic republic of iran, its consumer, is, as they say, hidden. here is another question, what is the benefit of israel? and the benefit is that the democratic party now, especially after the attack on humanitarian organizations in gaza, is beginning to think more... less about helping israel, yes, the status of an ally, but they are already trying to twist israel's arms, so to speak, to give him the red light for certain operations, here israel v in principle, he can quite confidently declare to the american side, look at what a huge threat we have to iran, that iran can strike, that is hizbullah, so we cannot lose the support of our chief just like that. an ally, and the americans want it, they don’t want it, they will go this way for now,

so the israelis can fully understand their policy here, but, as for the iranian strike, they had many reasons to give up on israel even before that, they have no one prevented me from doing this, they supplied, accordingly , the scythes there to hezbollah, hamas, well, i would not i would honestly be sure that now the war with lebanon will be... so easy for israel, it will have to open a second front, and hezbollah has a lot of stockpiles of missiles there, everything else has been accumulated, that is, this balance of forces, its well no one will disturb so significantly, this is far from the first war in the middle east, from which all forces come out with basically plus or minus the same face, in some respects satisfied, in some respects not, but with the same starting positions, even hamas, about its destruction is complete now no one speaks, therefore, here

i would get away from some such apocalyptic forecasts, at least for this situation, of course there are certain moments, surprises, but in my opinion, there will be a blow to some proxy israeli forces or to the forces that will be declared such proxies. we would like to thank mykhailo yakubovich, an orientalist with whom we spoke about the situation in the middle east, we will follow it because... we see here, the situation is not easy, now we will break literally for a few minutes, but please stay with us, and then we will continue our program with andriy, big man vasyl zima's broadcast, this is a big broadcast, my name is vasyl zima, and we are starting two hours of airtime, two hours of your time, many important topics we will discuss today, two hours to learn about the war, right now we will talk more about the war , serhii zgurets with us, and what is the world, now about what happened in the world to be aware of economic news, time to

talk about money during the war, oleksandr morchyvka with us, oleksandr, congratulations, please , and sports news, sports reviews events from yevhen postukhov, two hours in the company of favorite presenters. thank you very much to the chechenna line for the information about cultural news, presenters that have become familiar to many. natalka didenko is ready to tell us about the weather on the day of the coming day, as well as the distinguished guests of the studio. andriy parubiy, people's deputy of ukraine, was also there. chairman of the verkhovna rada of ukraine. events of the day in two hours. vasyl zima's big broadcast. a project for smart and caring people. espresso in the evening. the saturday political club returns to its work after a short break vitaly portnikov, andriy smoliy. we are live now. and for the next 50 minutes we will talk with vitaly. to analyze the most important events, the same events that concern ukraine, that

concern the world, those that essentially determine, relatively speaking, our life today, as well as the first topic, which is very much discussed, the new york times writes about it, talks about it profile vice-prime minister for european integration, ms. stefanyshyn, ukrainian politicians are talking about her, this is... actually , the topic of what is allegedly at the summit, which will take place in the summer of the nato summit, ukraine will not be invited to the north atlantic alliance. sir vitaliy, frankly speaking, i do not quite understand all this, as they say, the information load, why, because we already understand perfectly well that ukraine is unlikely to be accepted into nato. why does someone think that someone, or someone, relatively speaking, is shuffling this topic about the fact that,

you see, nato is not waiting for ukraine there in june or july. or in august, well, in my opinion, these are such rather harmful things, and it is obvious that we are now cooperating with nato, that nato is our strategic partner today, but we should also objectively understand why nato will not accept us now, in fact, and why, why actually it will happen later, we hope it will happen, what is all this for, these things now? is being discussed, well , because there is a large part of nato member countries who believe that the decision should be made already in washington, and that, in fact, the corridor of opportunity for ukraine can be closed, if you imagine that in november 2024 the president of the united states will be donald trump is elected, may arise at all the question of whether ukraine's accession

to nato will arise during his presidential term is one moment, another moment. that the accession, that the invitation of ukraine to nato is not the accession to nato, it is a procedure that allows us to talk about security guarantees. and we talked about it many times, not only that, we talked about certain western politicians, about the fact that, of course, ukraine is unlikely to become a member of nato during the period of its war with russia, however, if it receives an invitation to nato, it will be a signal to volodymyr putin, that he is at least whole of ukrainian territory will not be able to get it... that the goals of his war are, in principle, unattainable, that he can at most, in the best option for himself, be satisfied with some amount of ukrainian territory that he occupies and cannot and will not be able to protect from the defense forces of ukraine . they talked about the option, which you remember, was discussed for quite a long time, which was proposed by the former secretary general anders von rasmusson

, that ukraine receives a security guarantee for this territory, which is not currently occupied by russia. troops, but again, for for this to happen, ukraine must receive an invitation to nato, it cannot receive these guarantees automatically, what can ukraine receive, instead of these security guarantees, we can look at these agreements that ukraine is currently signing with western countries, and which in principle now the president's office is quite seriously advertising, but they are not about anything, they do not contain any security guarantees, they say: if they will, if they fight with you, then you will receive weapons from us, you will receive everything you need from us, just fight, we guarantee you, even if our governments change, even if there is a negative attitude to this in the parliaments, we have an agreement, you will get it, fight, and we will look at it, it looks like this by and large, in some there are no security agreements

, and there are no such guarantees, well , security agreements, agreements on... aid, let's call it that, so there is a real thing, that is, there are options, option number one: ukraine receives an invitation to nato, and at the same time receives security guarantees for the territories it controls the legitimate ukrainian government, option two: ukraine will receive an invitation to nato, nato will not receive guarantees of safety and security, but vladimir putin sees the signal that ukraine is already considered a country that will soon... join, option three, ukraine receives nothing, receives some kind of road map with unclear terms, and ukraine will be told, as president biden said, that a necessary, necessary condition for ukraine's accession to nato will be its victory over russia, here is an interesting moment, we have in general about this victory

to talk in more detail, because it seems to me that we are also all the time in some ... certain, i said, terminological misunderstandings, which i mean, for us, for most people who grew up in the soviet, ideological and terminological in the context, as for the russians, victory, that is victory, is when the victorious army enters the capital of the defeated country. it hangs its flag over the seat of power of this country, establishes its rules there, at least creates an occupation zone and tells the population that it has been captured. country, how to eat, how to live in it, the soviet troops and the troops of the allies in berlin are a symbol of victory, we should not assume that we are not affected by this

ideology, ukraine actually lived in this ideology, if you will, until 2005, relatively speaking, if not later, if you remember how they looked all our parades, victories in kyiv, i'm not talking about moscow, well, then, for us , victory is at least... if we go to the borders of 1991, it's better that russia collapses, you hear that our compatriots always say, we will get out, it will collapse, we understand that we will not if we reach moscow, then it is necessary that moscow itself somehow collapses, and this is a victory. the russians say victory is if we occupy all of ukraine, enter kyiv, destroy the so -called nazis, and this is simply the ukrainian territory of this, historical russia, if they do not obey us, we are all that, well, we have to. to destroy kharkiv, as volodymyr solovyov says, it is necessary to destroy zaporozhye there, they are doing it, by and large they acted in the same way during the second world war, and not only with german cities, and no, the hitlerites also acted in this way when

destroyed warsaw, this is victory, to destroy the disloyal population together with the cities where they live is a great idea, in the west victory looks different, in the west victory is the end of hostilities, with the signing of a political agreement, and i win... the one who chooses the best conditions in this political agreement for himself, and not the one who captures the enemy's capital. the united states was defeated in vietnam, not because the republic of south vietnam was eliminated as a result, that was already a consequence, but because in the peace agreement with north vietnam, the united states did not reached the, i would say, the conditions they were counting on, that's why it's called a defeat, the americans were not going to capture. it was north vietnam that was going to capture saigon, and therefore for president biden, when he talks about the victory of ukraine, it means that at some point there will be

negotiations between russia and ukraine, on which the presidents of both countries, volodymyr putin and volodymyr zelensky, will put their signatures. only this during these negotiations should ukraine have a strong position so that it can protect its sovereignty and the right to choose. and that absolutely not what the average ukrainian thinks, because he does not even imagine the handshake of the president of ukraine with the president of russia, but president biden, i think, imagines, and this is the problem that when we hear biden, we think, but how does he see our victory, he wants us to reach moscow, and after that we can be taken to nato, no, he wants a settlement that guarantees the united states that the russian... federation does not claim anything else in ukraine , and that after the admission of ukraine to nato, it is in conflict with nato won't admit that she recognizes that ukraine is

the part of ukraine that can be defended, i hope that it will be all of ukraine within the borders of 1991, but no one knows this, the war is just beginning, nothing important has happened yet, like you you understand, because the countries, both countries are not yet at the level of exhaustion, but the main thing will begin when there will be political, social and... demographic exhaustion of both countries, and we are on the way to this exhaustion, both ukraine and russia, we are just going along this terrible bridge to the chasm, because it is war this is always the situation, but at this moment the west must be sure, they will sit down, sign, and then they will say, we are taking ukraine to nato, we are not in any danger of a nuclear war between the united states and russia, which will lead to the death of tens of millions people, there won't be, this is a correct position, it's not or not, that's another question. i do not have absolute confidence, by the way, that this position can be agreed, because i believe that in this situation russia can fight, well, not to infinity, but to the exhaustion of its own

resources, but this is the view of biden and this is the view of chancellor scholz, and here the question arises why we should not argue with these views, because every month of delay, every few places of delay, is the road to serious ... political, social and demographic problems in the country, look, we are now the president there, after nine months, he signed the law on lowering the mobilization age, and everyone says that it is very necessary, i am absolutely not going to argue here, because the armed forces absolutely it is more clear what number of mobilized they need, but there is a problem that we have people who are 225 years old, remember all this, these are people born in the 90s, when we had a demographic decline, there are four of them. times less than people who are 40-45, that is, my age, they were born in soviet conditions, people there are 10 years younger than me.

when, in principle, there was a stable situation with births, and then there was a dip, then it began to level off, now there is a new dip, which means that the more we lower the mobilization age, the more we have real guarantees that the ukrainian nation will not recover after the war, well, it’s just that, you can, you can sigh here, you can talk, otherwise you won’t do anything, and i can, it’s mathematics, yes, that basically a demographic victory over the ukrainian people failure not by the russian state, but by the russian people is being achieved literally before our eyes, here we are witnesses of this victory, which is not dangerous, and by the way, the russians are defeating not only us, they are defeating the buryats, they are defeating the tuvans, they are defeating the chechens, they are in principles thanks to this war, all the prerequisites for the possible collapse of russia, about which we talk so much, are eliminated, because if there is no people, this is the stalinist approach, there is no

problem with the ukrainians , too, if the ukrainians turn into a small nation that will rebuild its completely destroyed cities, without having the demographic potential for this, then in principle it can be said that russia's civilizational victory is in putin's pocket, he is achieving it, the west, why am i talking about this, the west cannot believe that ukraine is capable of waging a war of attrition to infinity, and believes that when we talk about the war of... will continue for another year, two more, three more, five more, it may be, the question of exit, mathematical exit from this war arises, who will come out of it, what will happen to the ukrainian people on the way out, and to say that it depends only on the ukrainians, but this is not fair, because again, of course, it is possible for the americans or someone else to be absolutely equal there, 40 million of us, or 20 , or 20, but you know, as a person of jewish origin, i told you

during the second world war, everything was absolutely the same for everyone, how many jews would remain, and what if there were few left, now there are 15 million of the jewish people around the world, there were only 35 or 40, if it were not for the holocaust , and for the americans or i don't know for the french or for the poles, it is arithmetic, and for the jews it is destroyed families, and these people... who did not give birth to anyone, because they were destroyed, and did not even leave behind descendants, and you just have to understand that this is a very similar situation, and russia, which in principle is such a duplicate of the hitler's reich, in terms of ideology, approaches, it simply restores this situation, one can say, and it is a win-win option, if you are not held by the hands, and here we must clearly understand, for

us, putin is some kind of obsessive, who is not knows what he is doing, he knows perfectly well what he is doing, he has all these tables, all these numbers, i assure you, sits and counts at night, he, the only thing this person can do almost flawlessly, work with documents, here he is works, as a result, his work with documents also perishes and is not left behind children and grandchildren, living people, our compatriots, well, in this case, i absolutely agree with you. unfortunately, unfortunately, we see that part of even ukrainian society and the societies of other countries, they do not understand this, we see it, and the leaders of other countries do not understand this, but we approach another, again, it appears now, such information is constantly circulating that the west, that the leaders of the nato countries. somewhere

in the far, far, as they say, far drawer, they are still discussing the question of that it is possible that ukraine should be accepted into nato, or at least something should be guaranteed to ukraine within the controlled territories that we have now, and this week we again hear this information from foreign media that such an issue is supposedly behind the scenes... and here another dissonance arises, that ukrainian society is very often not ready for such things, that is, we see how people who were in 22-23, maybe, perhaps, there was such an overdose of such information , such and such, about the ukrainian victory , about the fact that we have to go to the borders and so on and so forth

similar, reach moscow, reach belgrade. and we, unfortunately, still hear all these things.