can also be a certain calculation, i'm just not sure that putin will go to any talks before the presidential elections, but this is, as always, the price of the question, and the level of putin's understanding of the institutional problems of his own country. we never know, because we do not live in putin's head, how adequately he perceives the economic, let's say, reality. which exists for the third year of the great war, and here we will go, indeed, you led me to the idea that putin, relatively speaking, now these months, the nearest, there is 2024 in general can make a so-called breakthrough, he is already doing it in principle, we are now seeing a breakthrough in ukrainian energy, we are now seeing essentially different... insights about that from

budanov, we have already talked with the guests about this, and from and from the foreign media, about the fact that russia is still planning its next offensive for may, june, july, tentatively for the summer, let's say so, that is, we can relate it to the context of the actual future negotiations, the fact that putin now he wants, at least he wants, we will not talk, he will succeed or not. to carry out certain certain military steps, to occupy, perhaps, new territories, to inflict the maximum, and, i say, to inflict the maximum blows on ukrainian energy, and accordingly on the ukrainian economy, perhaps he will have some other goals, and thus get out to a better negotiating position? i don't think it's about a better negotiating position, it's about simple words. this is not the logic of politics, this is the logic

of a gang, if we manage to capture all of ukraine and destroy it all, well, that's great, we capture , destroy, annex, then we talk. if if it is not possible to capture all of ukraine, then it is necessary to capture as much as can be captured before the moment, at least the armistice. but again, there is nothing new in this. this is the program that appeared after the defeat in 2022, after the destruction. blitzkrieg, it became clear that a puppet government that was supposed to provide all this could not be done here, they decided that they would stop when they capture what can be captured, that is, at the time of exhaustion of, say, resources, russia should capture the maximum of that that it can capture and protect from of the ukrainian army, as much as possible, this is one moment, then there is another moment, it is diplomatic, the questions are not the same. to the occupied

territories, now there is this forum in switzerland, in june, and it might seem that russia will react to it completely indifferently, because it does not decide anything in principle, well, representatives and leaders of countries that essentially support this country, people who are not very supportive may come there, and some vague communiqué will be adopted, if the global south is there, even a peace formula. zelensky will not be included in it, this must be understood if there is a global south, i mean, simply for all good against all bad, for peace against war, for territorial integrity without a clear indication of how to achieve it and so on, but they went the other way, lavrov flew to beijing, the chinese began to talk about the need for a peace conference with the participation of russia and ukraine with equal representation of them, and that china could become an alternative center... holding such

a forum, that is, in fact, they are still trying create an alternative diplomatic track. there is a big forum in switzerland, president biden can come there, that is, if president biden is there, if president zelenskyi is there, leaders of western countries, it will be a representative conference, but one that cannot decide anything, and we propose a conference at which xi jinping will put putin here and zelensky here and help. they have to agree on who in this case looks like a world leader, well, of course, if biden can only talk about peace in ukraine with zelenskyi and macron, and sydzenpin with zelenskyi and putin, if zelenskyi will of course agree to such a game, then it is obvious that you have bipolar peace, you have a bipolar world, you have everything, everything is bipolar, and peace is bipolar in ukraine, so to speak, through the chinese role and... it becomes bipolar, thanks to

xizen ping's role in this whole story, and moscow, in fact, gives beijing a pass for such a game, and it is clear that now that... in scholz will go to xizenpin, and then xizenpin will go to paris, then sydzenpin will try to explain to scholz and macron that it is necessary to use this format. strategic europe's autonomy, what's up america, let's all gather in beijing and eventually finish it ourselves. and i will agree, if you agree, i will agree on this with putin when i have him. and this is a very risky game. in fact, it's an even more dangerous and... story than the offensive, given that the offensive is at least handled by people who are professional soldiers, and this story will be handled by people who are professional pr people, and who are not even they will understand where they are being drawn into, this is a matter of course in the west

they understand, because it is a serious, serious application and very unexpected, and this despite the fact that china, in principle, supports russia, that is, if this does not happen. in a direct way, if, conditionally speaking, china does not directly supply weapons, as they say, from a conveyor to russia, then china helps in other ways, for example, an article from the shaded press came out, it says that china is supplying russia with goods in bulk, conditionally, no military purpose, but it is clear that these are microelectronics, that these are various types of elements for missiles, machine tools, and so on and so similar. everything related to the manufacture of missiles, tanks, and so on and so on. that is, we are talking about the fact that china is also trying to bring russia into a better negotiating position, with such support. we

understand very well that no chinese company would support russia and would not supply anything to russia, if there was no agreement from the top management of china, well, of course, this is not the kind of country where it is possible. it's a totalitarian country, well i don't think it's about a better negotiating position, what do china even think in terms of a better negotiating position, the west thinks better in terms of a better negotiating position, it wants ukraine to have a better negotiating position, and this is another great illusion of this war: you will advance here and there, and you will cut off the corridor here, and you here, release this and that, and you will have a better negotiating policy, position in negotiations with russia. i don't know who made this up, but we heard this all through 2022, then 2023, you see, you couldn't, and you won't have a better negotiating position, and they didn't exist, and still don't, because russia didn't was going to hold no negotiations, these are all fictions that live in the heads of western politicians, because they profit

that if they were in such a situation, they would go to the negotiations in a worse position, and putin is not them, he absolutely everything is the same, he will simply mobilize a certain number of people there and leave. how is cannon fodder going to do something else so very unpleasant to his own countrymen but he needs to so china may think otherwise china just doesn't want russia to suffer some tactical defeat in this war, the fact that strategically they will definitely win, there is no question of that, they are sure that they have a lot of time, but they see that if russia, let's say, is forced to... stop this war not when putin would like, but, let's say, simply because there are really no more resources to fight anymore, then this is a defeat for russia, even if it retains control over the occupied territories, you know, when the war stops, not because there are agreements , and because

there is not enough equipment or people or something else something, it's a defeat, well, it's not enough for further aggressive actions, to get something, which is, but it's impossible to advance. and missiles to destroy the energy sector can no longer be produced, because there are no components, this is what china wants to prevent, but again, it wants to prevent it so as not to fall under sanctions, and therefore the americans can put pressure on the chinese, but it is no coincidence that in china before the visit lavova was janet yellen, the secretary of the treasury of the united states, who clearly said that no, you cannot cooperate with russia, they repeat that constantly, of course, they can't stop it completely, but these intimidations are purely to make them hide better if they, the more they hide, the less they can afford, of course, and that's all, that is the americans are not idiots either, they understand that

china is a strategic ally of russia, that both countries are in a relationship, i said mutual aid, one is needed, the other is needed, but dinfin and vladimir putin really understand each other. one, there are no illusions that these two countries are allies in this whole story, but given that china doesn't want to admit it, the possibilities are there all the time. to make big eyes and say: we want, and i will find, well, then, then all this goes all the way to the bottom, to the bottom of the goal - it's a smaller amount of products, it's true. china, in principle, china is trying to hide its direct support for russia, china behind the official, all official statements of china indicate that we are against any supply of weapons to the parties, they say to the parties, here you are supplying weapons to ukraine on the battlefield, as said this deputy secretary, i'm sorry, the permanent representative of the security council, the permanent representative of china to the security council, here are these supplies of weapons on the battlefield, they

only increase with escalation, and we want to negotiate, but we are peaceful, we do not give anything to russia there, we just we trade with it, as i just read, in certain non-military components, although it is clear that these are military components, and it is clear that russia simply produces a lot of things on its territory, we must still not forget that... russia is after all, a state with a large number of military-industrial complexes, that is, factories that produce various types of equipment, and they can build all kinds of new factories, as they built, for example, with the same shaheds. by the way, if we have already talked about the shaheds, then i would like to talk about one more topic, and it concerns another ally of the occupiers, iran. and why is this topic very important, because it also

resonates very, very much and is very closely connected with ukraine, this topic is very much connected with ukraine, i pay a lot of attention to this topic, someone is writing to me there, what are you writing about, why are we here at all, come on, let's write about a lot about ukraine, let's not write about israel or iran, and i say that this is the wrong position, because we we live... not on a separate planet, we live on planet earth, and geopolitical interests in the event of a war or an attack by iran on israel, and in the event that the middle east flares up again, for us these these things and these and these consequences, they will not be very good for us either, and we also understand that, and in short, because now we will move on to the questions, then our viewers know... and if they don't, then you remember very well that last week there was a strike by the israeli armed forces on damascus,

the capital of syria, in fact, several representatives of iran's leading officers were killed there, yes, which in fact , attacks were being prepared there, including on israel, attacks on other states, and now in the foreign press, including. and among politicians such as biden, who has now interrupted his, his, his, his, his, his, his, sabbath rest and is talking to his entourage about a possible escalation on near east it's about iran striking israel in the coming days or the coming weeks, we don't know that, i do n't think anyone knows exactly when that might or might not happen, but if it does, it's certainly here for... of our state and for all of us, it will also be a certain moment that will

influence the position of the united states of america and many of our other allies in helping ukraine, that is, even in the media, militarily, in any way. and now we come to the question of whether a real conflict in the middle east is possible or not possible attack by iran. on israel in the coming days, weeks or months, and if so, how intense it might be, and the third question is how it might eventually affect ukraine, because it seems to me that russia would be clapping its hands there and would very much like, for that to happen and for iran to attack israel. well, of course, this attack is possible, it will happen in the next few days, everyone understands this very well, it is for months. weeks, but secondly, it was absolutely clear that iran could not but

strike back after high-ranking representatives of the islamic revolution guards corps were destroyed in damascus, including the head of this corps in syria and the middle east, general zahadi. thirdly, no one knows how intense it will be, because in tehran they also understand very well that the israelis, when they were preparing this attack on... the residence of the guardian corps of the islamic revolution, often say that this is an embassy, ​​it is not an embassy at all. it's just one of the houses, not far from the iranian embassy, ​​but it's an ordinary house, it's also necessary. what to say that does not have any immunity, but israel also perfectly understood that they would strike, if there was a successful strike, there would be a response from iran, and they knew how they could respond to iran's response, which means that, in fact, iran could fall into a trap , if they make a major force strike, they

will thus give israel the opportunity to retaliate against iran, including. why, for its nuclear facilities, and thus to close the topic of iran's nuclear program forever, and to do it not by ourselves, because iran israel is attacking iran, no, this is in response, you we were attacked with missiles, ballistic or cruise, we answered you, now look, the capabilities of both countries are huge. ballistic missiles for israel fly to from iran, i apologize, they fly to israel in 12 minutes. cruise missiles in two hours, the same pace in the opposite direction. thus

, ballistic missiles from israel can reach iran 24 minutes after the launch of iranian ones. missiles, it can all happen at the same time, and it's also completely understandable, because i'm sure one way or another that in both capitals and in tehran and in jerusalem, it perfectly aware. that this is an almost obvious thing that needs to be dealt with, well, one way or another, it is real to deal with, so we will see how adequate the iranians are, if it turns out that they are not adequate,

there will be a serious war, because it is clear that if israel in.. . donates some strategic objects to iran, iran will not be able to say after that: that's it, let's finish. i 'm not sure it's in putin's favor. in favor of putin, if there is any long-term conflict between israel and iran, it is unlikely to be long-term, because they do not have common borders. ugh. iran can use hezbollah to launch rocket attacks on the north, but also carefully, because it ... understands that if the israel defense forces, now out of the gas sector, goes to the north of israel and into lebanon, then both hezbollah and lebanon can collapse . iran is not interested in this, because hezbollah is controlled by lebanon itself. so, the situation can be very difficult. all this , together with the strike on the residence

of the islamic revolutionary guard corps in ... paska, looks like dragging the iranians into a trap from which they will not be able to get out. we now have with you see if they fall into that trap or not, because they can do something else, they can capture ships like they did today, they can strike, but not a very serious one that can't be answered legitimately, yes, how can you answer a strong attack, they, that is, can do. steps, do you remember andriy that when general kasem suleimani, the head of the islamic revolutionary guard corps, was killed, by the way, on the personal order of our hero of our broadcast today, donald trump, it was he who ordered, so they also said then, trump made a risky move, an incredibly risky move, why, because the iranians can

respond so seriously that it will be a serious problem for the united states, such a direct confrontation with iran. the iranians never answered it seriously, they did. and that, too, was actually obvious to all of them, but that response was not one that allowed the united states to do a really big escalation, that didn't happen. and now there may be a repetition of this situation, you see that those who want to strike iran in order to solve the issue of its nuclear program, it is constantly creating traps for iran so that iran will confess. to be able to hit him, this is the second time, in fact, benjamin netanyahu is doing what donald trump has already done once. well, here's the whole

situation. by the way, if we talk about iran and about nuclear weapons, then this week , such information also appeared in the foreign press, and in ours, that at this moment iran already has approx. but there are two or three nuclear bombs in readiness for a few weeks, well, this is conspiracy, well, at least so, so they say, and the fact that they are in the development stage, and the fact that they are trying to do it, well, of course, that this is a fact, and this is this information, which, in principle, i think, should not even be there nazi'. that's what some terms were called at first, now

of course, that is, here conventionally speaking, they are called, they are called terms that they can hardly have them ready there for several days, this is of course the information that the iranians themselves only know, i'm not sure what they know, you know, edible bombs, such that you think it's there, but it's not, that is, we are talking about the fact that... after all, iran will most likely use the so-called hybrid hybrid such a scenario of a war against against israel and its allies can be conditionally speaking such an option that there can be a hybrid scenario, because mr. vitaly just very correctly noted the information about the capture of one of the non-iranian, portuguese sub-portuguese, non-israeli, portuguese-flagged ships and... the armed forces, not just the houthis, not just hezbollah, namely the israeli armed forces landed on this ship and its

captured, yes, yes, on a ship which, which, one of the israeli billionaires is a co-owner of, well, by the way, not just the armed forces of iran, but the naval forces of the guard corps of the islamic revolution, that is, that is, in principle, we can already to witness it. that it goes, maybe it goes according to the so-called hybrid scenario, and if we approach this hybrid scenario, it is quite possible that it will be, but, as they say, we will see, yes, that is, that is, in any case, in any case - in any case, i say once again what it is it is important from the point of view of ukraine, because in any respect, informationally, politically, it will affect us, including us, just like any war. which, which, which will be tangential to our allies and the civilized world, well, the most important thing is that it is, in any case, the globalization of conflicts, and by the way, when

the war in ukraine began, and the first shaheds began to appear, and i spoke then with by my israeli colleagues also, that i believe that iran is supplying these shaheds for a reason, but that iran is trying to do everything possible, that... it is necessary to test its weapons on some real training ground, but ukraine is an ideal training ground for iran, there you can hit real infrastructure objects, and not those that you will recreate for yourself somewhere in the desert, and see where the shortcomings of drones are, right? you see, the russians are now very serious about their drones from the anti-aircraft system . shoot down the drones of the mine system, because they are somehow painted something else, given to them by some others there wings, that is, in fact, the iranians got two

years of testing their, at least unmanned lethal operations, if you consider that this is an iron dome in israel, in israel, then this is a very serious job, and again, taking into account the fact that the drone flies from iran to israel, somewhere in hours... 10 9:10 from lebanon sooner somewhere in one and a half or two hours, then this attack can all be programmed now, keeping in mind the ukrainian experience, and look, there was another moment that spoke of the possibility of war between aran and israel. russians at a certain stage, remember, they really ran out of missiles that were in warehouses, and they started going to tehran, demanding that the iranians sell them not only drones. and so, in principle, this was my last question, by the way, that

despite... the fact that iran supplies intelligence drones mukhajer6, the same one, the same shahed, conditionally speaking, maybe some components for some kind of weapon , but does not supply, nor ballistic winged ones either, that is, they are not ready for this, but why, but because there are not enough of them - they themselves needed, and here the israelis and the americans could always think, why do they need them so much, well, now the question is that... about the fact that they are needed now, new ones can be made, which means that they already needed them, because they already were preparing for a possible conflict in the middle east, and the fact that they denied the russians missiles was an indicator of what their plans are for the future, this is a very serious story, of course, and it seems to me that it can also be done this way... to sum up how

what we are talking about is possible april 13, yes, the famous month of nissan according to the jewish calendar, in which all historical events take place, as a rule, ending the story of jesus christ, which was also in this month, as you know, and now we can talk just on the eve of a new big clash. and a new big such duel between judea and persia, you know, again the biblical story, these are all biblical stories, they just repeat themselves once every thousand years, and it can absolutely be because iran was preparing for this duel and that is why it refused even its own we love russian to friends who really wanted rockets fired at us and israel was preparing more than that...

as of now, iran is no longer supplying the same shahedis in such volumes to russia, that is, russia is doing it itself, russia is doing it now according to different data 30 shaheds per day, plus or minus. and yes, iran supplies there every wednesday and many viewers, reading various monitoring information, they know that every wednesday a plane arrives too early in vnukovo, yes, but they are the ones who bring what, the details, and... figure it out for yourself i am already compiling, by the way, according to the russian production of shahedz, based on this number, we can imagine how many shahezis can be produced per day by the islamic republic itself, approximately the same amount, and by the way, this was also supposed to be for the israel defense forces, where the israeli intelligence services are a certain reference point, which one way or another allows to think about the amount of weapons without any. there is talk

now about nuclear weapons, because in general, listen, in the conditions of confrontation between israel and iran, this is also not a trump card, as you know, how many weapons iran could accumulate for the moment when such a new phase of the conflict can begin, but by the way, note that the phase is not foreseen, because, ending our conversation, it is worth reminding that everyone talked about the possibility of opening a second front in lebanon, which could be used by hezbollah. a lot was said about the houthis stopping trade in the red sea, now iran itself is stopping it, as we can see, the islamic revolutionary guard corps can, as it turns out, do without the houthis, they are ready to intervene themselves, but no one talked about the fact that the main danger is the direct participation of iran in the conflict, and now we are coming to such a situation when lyalkovit himself, that is how putin came out of yaklkovit in february 2022, behind the backs

of various people there. with which he covered himself, this is a proxy army, yes, and iran can now come out from behind hamas, hezbollah and the houthis, which he also covered himself with in this confrontation, and the confrontation will begin with the real enemy, and not with the enemy who used shadows. thanks to andriy, andriy smoliy, vitaly portnikov, 9 p.m., we have to to conclude, thank all the viewers who watched the spresso tv channel, watched the saturday political club, and we will meet you in this program. next saturday and we will discuss all the main topics already next week. goodbye. all the best. let's hope that not without the next war, let's talk.

greetings viewers of the espresso tv channel. in the studio.