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the sponsor of the national team represents united by football, together we are stronger, we continue the politclub program on the espresso tv channel with you vitaliy portnikov, our guest on the air , oleksiy garan, a professor of political science. and now we will talk about how, in your opinion, mr. oleksiy, the sociological attitudes of ukrainians have changed during these two years of the great war? that is, you want a general picture so large-scale, if, if you can , if you can see it before your eyes, we can, look, i took part in the presentation of the latest survey of the rozumkov center, the study was conducted. at the end

of march, in two weeks, we will present the results of our joint research with deminitiatives, that is, we are currently processing the materials, well, if we... if we look at, let's say, the dynamics, well, look, i think that such indicators as, for example, the predominance of ukrainian identity, generally national, supra-regional, striving for distancing from russia, i.e. such ukrainization from below, de-russification, rejection of soviet symbols. all these are positive trends which remain, of course, to this we can add nato and the attitude to nato and the european union, but some parameters are changing, well, let's take this and analyze it correctly, because the media very

often do not analyze it quite correctly, they tear it out of context, sociologists traditionally ask questions about how do you think events in ukraine are going... in the right or wrong direction, so before the beginning, before the start of full-scale aggression, only 20% of ukrainians said that events were moving in the right direction in the country , only 20%. in march two, after the beginning of the aggression, this figure changed dramatically for the better, and it reached its peak in march 22nd, 23rd year, that is more than 60%. it is obvious that hopes for a counteroffensive also played a significant role here, and then a smooth, gradual development began, it was not abrupt, but gradual, this belief that the country is going in the right direction, it

decreased, and as of the end of march, those who believe that the country is moving in the right direction. 38% and those who believe that the country is going in the wrong direction are 39%, that is, a practical reproach, it should be noted though that it's still twice as high as it was before the war as it was before the war but we're really seeing a definite, definite decline here and we understand that it's related, there's a couple of factors at work here, there's frustration , that on sukhadol, let's say, the counteroffensive was successful on the sea, but not on sukhadol, and the fact that we see problems with supplies and weapons from our allies, well, it's obvious that part of the actions of the authorities, with which ukrainians are dissatisfied, and here i would like would like to draw your attention to what we also

traditionally measured, or rather in this case this is the rumkov center that measured trust in social institutions and... on the one hand , there are no sensations here in that in the first place they go with a huge balance of trust, not trust , positive, well, the armed forces of ukraine are 92%, volunteers - 76%, this is a balance , trust and distrust, that is, it is very high, the national guard is 67%, that is, we have seen before that these structures are in the first place, and with a minus, we again have a tradition. and the prosecutor's office, and the government, and the parliament, and the courts, but also anti-corruption bodies, that is, for example, nabu-18 and specialized the anti-corruption prosecutor's office minus -30%, yes,

that is, it is obvious, ukrainians do not see decisive steps, steps in the fight against corruption, as for the president, the level of trust in him, well, already after zaluzhny's resignation in early february, the kmis conducted a survey and there the level trust in the president was 64% before his resignation, 60% after his resignation. well, now we see that the level of trust in this survey. it is 59% of the center of intelligence, that is, in principle, it is not bad, not bad, it is a high level of trust for the president of a country at war, however, that it is alarming that if we look at the balance of trust and distrust, i.e. plus-minus, yes,

in january this balance was positive + 36%, and now it is positive + 26%, that is... for january-march, well, by 10% decreased, so did this, and this is a serious, serious signal, yes, that is, obviously. that the number of people who are satisfied with the president's actions is falling, and that's bad, yes, because of course it's better when the commander-in-chief is trusted more, which is true, here, as you know, the opposition is sometimes so redis, well, the level of the president's trust is falling, accordingly, our level will be to grow, in fact it is not so, because when ukrainians were asked... whether they see among the existing political forces those who could be

trusted with power in the post-war period, only 25% of respondents gave an affirmative answer, again in july 23- there were 39% of them, that is, this is a serious decrease, and this applies to both the government and the opposition, so i think it is such a question... think about it for both the government and the opposition, well , an interesting moment, ukrainians always want new faces, well, look , the question was that i think maybe not even new ones face, yes, but rather responsibility and an honest conversation with those politicians who are, yes, they are old or new, but what about our position. in principle, it is also already so old, so to speak, but it seems to me that this honest

conversation is needed, you know, and definitely a struggle for the rule of law, so the question was, what kind of politician, where will this political force come from, which can to trust the authorities in the post-war period, and most often according to citizens, it can appear from among the military, that is, in... 45% of respondents, although this is less, than there was in previous polls, where there were 50% plus, and it seems to me that this is precisely what is being said about the military, it seems to me that here in a certain way, well, in a certain way, well, it is connected with trust in the military in general, yes, about which i have already spoken, but, well, hardly. we will have, you know, such a party of the military, it seems to me that rather these military, as

the experience of 2014 showed, when the time comes to think about you about the elections, they will disperse to different parties, and we should understand, and ukrainians must understand what it means to be heroes at the front is one thing, being successful politicians is another thing, we don't know. will these people be as successful in politics, that's why talking about a party of the military, well, i would be very concerned about the hope of ukrainians for such a party, i would be very, very careful about it, and i think that the trends also show that now such faith in the military party is diminishing, and perhaps, i think, it makes sense to say. also talk about faith in victory, well , faith in victory, paradoxically, it is stable,

i.e. 80% plus, this survey showed 83%, who believe in victory, but the share of those who say that this victory will happen before the end of the year has changed, and those who believe that it will happen in one or two years, or even in the future, well, i think it is clear, i.e. 50% who in march 23 believed that victory would come before the end of the year, now only 22% of such people, well , again, this is connected with the events at the front, and that ukrainians also saw that their expectations were a little optimistic overfed, well, we wanted to believe it ourselves, of course, but the reality turned out to be more complicated and we have to prepare for... a protracted war, well, another interesting figure is that how ukrainians understand victory,

it means 20 er, well, the majority, yes, it is definitely, er, it speaks of the restoration of the territorial integrity of ukraine, and about the destruction of the russian army, the uprising inside russia, 46 and 23 in total, so it will be 69%, yes. quite a large number, but 26% will consider it a victory even if uh... even if we have to, will have to give up a part of the territory, be it crimea, be it donbas, or part of the occupied territories since the 22nd year, even then these 26% will still believe that this is a victory for ukraine, this share, it has increased somewhat, the last thing i would like to say, well

, if we talk about specific numbers, then the attitude . to the elections in ukraine, yes, and here, ah, 60% have a negative attitude, that is , the majority, and only 22% have a positive attitude to holding elections during the war, and ukrainians emphasize that yes, such elections will divide society, and therefore it is not worth it that it will prevent a war with russia, and therefore no it should be done, but here... the share of those who are in favor of elections during the war has increased somewhat, from 20, from 15% in september 23 to 22%. i also think that this is partly related to disappointment, let's say, in ah, the actions of the authorities and what forces

ukrainians in ukraine not to be so categorical about the elections, that is, they begin to ... think that it is necessary, ah , to reset the authorities, but again the question arises as to who to reset, we see that the level of trust in political forces is low, but only 13% trust political parties in general, yes, this is a very low indicator, that is, there is both the government and the opposition, so the results are incorrect, after all, the majority of citizens believe in victory. oh, well, you are far away, i see that the deadline is running, that kmist 20, the 22nd year, 80 ukrainians, and now 60%, i gave a little different numbers, i gave just the numbers that still now 83% continue to believe , to believe in victory, although

the terms of this victory, they are in the understanding of ukrainians, they have become longer. and tell me how the process with the resignation of the commander-in-chief affected the rating of the president armed forces, you can say that it affected sociology, so i already mentioned here just asking kmis that he had confidence when it started, the kmis poll began in february, and the confidence in the president was 64%, at the end of the survey it decreased to 60% yes, but what i said that the balance of trust is not trust decreased by where to the president of ukraine, without surnames, we did not put the surname, but it decreased by 10%, and this is a sharp event, so from january to march, so i think that zaluzhnyi's resignation had an effect here too, although we didn't

we know what zaluzhny could do in this situation, we understand that precisely here zaluzhny and syrsky... depend less than on the availability of weapons and the presence of the appropriate number of mobilized, but i do, but in any case i think that the resignation of a meritorious person, it is communicative, it was, well , it was carried out unsuccessfully, yes, that is , it should have been done differently, well, i think a lot has already been said about it, and there is nothing to repeat here, i think that society. we need an honest conversation, you know, not that we will be grilling kebabs there in may or in should crimea rest or something else, we need, we need a serious, serious conversation, and we understand that russia is leading to war, to survival, that the deadlines are being dragged out, the situation is difficult, and therefore there is no need to tell people

to feed them overoptimists. technical forecasts, but on the contrary, we must emphasize that join, if you do not join the army, then continue to help our volunteers, continue to help the state, continue to collect funds for funds for the front, all this must be done, we know that these amounts, they have decreased, well, maybe still is also connected with the economic situation in the country. definitely, definitely, although ukrainians, by the way, are not so pessimistic about their own future, now i will try to find it. these numbers, well, 31% believe that ukraine is able to overcome the problems within the next few

years, 46% believe that it will be able to overcome them in a more distant perspective, well, but still , in total, this is a fairly high number, so we can talk about that economic life is becoming more difficult, but... i think that not only this is important for helping the army, but also the feeling of personal responsibility, personal involvement, it seems to me that if in the first months of the war, these feelings, well , they dominated, now somehow it has begun to shift a little, that the war is going on, it is going there, well, we somehow help, but. .. there are fewer opportunities, and this ultimately led to a decline, a decline in income to support ours, and an emotional, emotional component. and

tell me, please, mr. oleksiiovych, when ending our conversation, do you generally think that this is such a static sociology from the point of view that after the war, when it ends, the situation will be completely different, well it will be. obviously different, yes, but again, now we see certain trends, yes, certain trends, after the war, the situation may become different, and obviously it will be different, and when the question of elections comes, some new political forces, there will be a reformation of those forces that exist, but you know, now i, well, everyone says that we need to think about the future. we need to prepare, what will the country be like after the war, i think that the most important thing for us now is how we can defeat the enemy and what is the country like now? that is,

it is certain that this should be a country where we have no complaints about the authorities, where we see that there is a serious fight against corruption, that this will be a new country, and this is what will inspire our fighters ahead. and those who are in the rear, people should see justice, well, i, for example, do not want to get into this topic of demobilization now, because i understand that on the one hand it is really a very sensitive topic, on the other hand we understand that we do not have there are enough people at the front, and yes, it is necessary to give rest to those people who have been fighting there since the first day, but how to do this without reducing the defense capability, well , it is very difficult, yes... but of course, what needs to be done is to show that the government is fighting against abuses within the government, severely

punishing those who try to use their wealth to enrich themselves during the war , and really that we have justice, yes, that it doesn't look like some people are fighting and others are sitting in restaurants and feeling normal, again, we understand that ... some part of people, it has to be in the rear, including working for different enterprises in the service sector, because in the end these enterprises pay taxes and they bring money to the state budget, which is not enough anyway, so we must understand, of course, that the state itself would not take out social payments and financing army, that here we should thank our...our allies, but there should be a sense of this justice. thank you, mr. oleksiy. oleksiy garan, professor of political science at the kyiv-mohyla academy, scientific director of the democratic initiative foundation named after lik kuchaliv. we are now

we will break for a few minutes, please stay with us. what is bahmud? is bahmud a place of fear and a place of bravery? no matter what anyone says. but bravery is not the absence of fear. bakhmut is an adventure that will stay with us until the end. our day. the children were born in the era of independence. who are they? there are many of them, and they are strong and brave. these are the guardians of the traditions and martial arts of their ancestors. these are boys who never cry. lemberg. mom, don't cry. a book by the writer olena cherninka, a mother's book about her son, a hero who was one of the first to go as a volunteer

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see that after the election. vladimir putin as the president of russia, the so-called election for the fifth term, it can be said that the situation in this country itself can hardly be called stable, and every such serious event demonstrates the ineffectiveness of the russian state body, it seemed that the country was waging a big war against its neighbor, vladimir putin continues to hope that ukraine will soon disappear from the political map of the world, huge amounts of money are being used to destroy our state, in russia itself, why no... an active state must wage war effectively. we will now talk with oleg magaletsky, a researcher of radiganism in the russian federation, co-organizer of the free peoples of postrossia forum. congratulations, mr. oleg. good evening. well, let's try to understand what conclusions we can draw from the point of view of the effectiveness of the russian state after this incredible flood in orenburg, in the orenburg region, and it is already moving to other regions of the russian federation. what conclusions

can you draw from the reaction of the authorities and the ability of the authorities to respond to such challenges? actually, there is nothing new, this is yet another sign of previous actions, which speak of the maximum inefficiency, brittleness and uncontrollability of all this the state, this vertical. the previous signs were the situation in the belgorod region, when the evacuation from the front-line units had already started, but they could not organize it, the same situation was connected with the terrorist attack in crocus. when they cannot even guarantee security in their capital, the same situation was in june 23, when they could not prevent a semi-coup within their own system, that is, these are another sign of the approaching collapse of this statehood. well, in principle, russia has existed in this form throughout its history, they talk about collapse all the time, but we see that the russian center is never interested in a russian province, and a russian province will do nothing to make

the russian center pay attention to it. so why are these signs of collapse then? it is also necessary to understand that such complex things do not always happen at one moment and in one historical period, once the province of the russian federation was helsinki, warsaw, and then the province of the russian federation was astana, kyiv, tbilisi, baku. now we will see, this is the third stage, most likely in the coming years, that the province will cease to be yakuska lanode, kazan by phone. in some of these republics, russians make up the majority of the population, national minorities, so to speak, indigenous peoples are a minority, in others there is a complex national composition in which these peoples themselves have complex relations with each other, for them russians are a balancing nation, still others have a national majority.