neighbors of the russian federation are completely safe, in that russia is a predictable and non-aggressive country. unfortunately, this will not happen. you and i actually returned to russia, as it was known all the years of its existence, in one form or another, as a threat. and accordingly, we, as ukrainian society, as a state, and our partners in the european union, and not only, have to do this. well , they have to accept it, this plume of the 90s, this raid, this unnatural situation in which russia was, it has finally passed and we will return, everything has returned to its circle, russia is a threat, mr. oleksandr, i would like to assess one thing based on your experience, now the russian military-political leadership is introducing a kind of new social contract, that is, i had the opportunity there... you see certain

studies by the russians, and they say that the essence of this the purpose of the new treaty should be that the society or the population of the russian federation should perceive the war as an everyday thing, that it is a normal component, and to limit the impact of the war on the so-called demobilized population, that is, in fact , the population that does not want to sacrifice anything, i.e. it should not be touched, it... should remain a direction that does not affect the population of the russian federation, and thus it is possible to prepare the conditions for a long-term war of attrition without any particular risks for the russian political regime. i would like to ask you how effective this concept is, how viable it is, should we see it as, well, this is a new systemic risk, how is this... a new

social contract, although i don't quite agree that it's such a social contract, how to treat it in these current ones realities? yes, this is a very multidimensional question, you asked it, it is true, this is the main dilemma of the russian regime, that is, for their survival, they have to maintain this eternal war, and they cannot even return. on february 23, 24, 22, but at the same time, they have to adhere to the social contract that they introduced themselves, starting back in the early 2000s, that is, you do not get involved in politics, we support you, what a great standard of living . after the 14th year, they also raised the rates, me i mean the regime, that is, they said: we add a little grandeur to you and... you

don't actually feel it either, this is after the annexation of crimea, the beginning of the creeping occupation and the attempt to occupy donbas, but after the start of the full-scale invasion, they actually this social contract, which they themselves introduced and violated, that is, they, that is, the population does not get involved in politics, they keep their part of the contract, but life is getting worse. and not only does life deteriorate, but this very population is sent to die, sent, forcibly mobilized and are sent, well, in fact, to the trenches, and this is on the one hand, on the other hand, we need this population, since blitzkrieg did not come out, we need to somehow motivate him, in addition to economic... we need some incentives, well

, ideological, intangible, eh, and here this dilemma, this is the so-called svo, people are actually put in prison for the war, on the other hand, how are you going to ideologically motivate people to go to some svo, and we really see this in our research, we conduct research on an ongoing basis in russia, of course we ask questions about perception by the russians of the war and their understanding of the goals of this war, and here really... the russians are leaving, well, this is such a dissonance, because we constantly see this dilemma of russian propaganda, the russian regime and the evolution of russian propaganda, and even zriots, you know, the nuclear electorate, which there for putin and for victory, they are confused about why, well, this all started, as a rule, it boils down to, well, for us, the west opposes the west, but... this

dilemma, that is, on the one hand it is the svo, on the other hand this is a people's war, russia's inflation, it is real, we see, and the regime is trying to balance between general incentives to participate in the war and insufficient material incentives alone. and you mentioned research on the territory of the russian federation, you them, i consider them quite unique, because you are looking for such methods of obtaining information, data that other social services, in particular from ukraine , cannot do it, you made data based on the results of 22- th year, you had... the plan to assess the history and state of russian society based on the results of the 23rd year, did you succeed to make based on the results of the 23rd year and what changes are now possible that are so noticeable that you can say about them? well, first of all,

what did you start your question with, regarding the new normality, the new everyday life, war as a norm, the routinization of war, it really happened. and this really affects the stability of the regime on the one hand, because when we asked at the end of the 22nd year and asked the russians: name what worries you first of all, it was the war, well, they called the ssvo, the war, it doesn’t matter, that's really 50% of the first elections were called war without thinking, and economic problems were mentioned twice as often, now during these one and a half years of our observations. the numbers are diametrically opposed, economic problems came to the fore, a request to putin, as the elected president, to solve the economic and financial problems of russians came to the fore, the successful completion of the so-called svo is not called

the first priority, it is one of the top-p there are problems and tasks for putin to solve, and we can see them. that the regime also understands this, they also have their research, of course, and they are now also trying to solve this issue, how, if on the one hand there are economic problems, there is a deterioration of the financial condition of the russians, on the other hand, the war can no longer be an excuse for these problems, how to explain to the russians what must be endured, and we see that another factor is used, the factor of terrorist attacks, the factor of ee... fear and the fact that war is coming to your home. the city holl step is just one of the first steps. in this month, this topic has had an impact on the russian media more than 250,000 times, that is, you and i, exactly

a month has passed since the date of this terrorist attack, it was a top five topic and a top five term in of the russian army for these months, these weeks. only these serious floods and the complete incompetence, as always, of the russian authorities and in their solution, it slightly balanced the discourse and what was discussed in the russian media sphere, but nevertheless we see that practically every day the russians reported that they that group was exposed, this group was exposed, icons with explosives from... from european countries, which, of course, were filled in ukraine, today in volgograd, it seems, or so volgograd, as if another 17-year-old terrorists were exposed and so on and so further, that is, now the russian regime is trying to find an answer to the fact that, on

the one hand, war is routinized, war is the norm, but on the other hand, how then to explain why life is getting worse, if everything is according to plan, if we win. "if the west is afraid of us, then why do we live so badly?" and then they return to 99-2000 years to the factor and map of terrorism. and mr. oleksandr, then the question arises whether this whole story is connected with the internal tightening of the nuts because of the threat of domestic terrorism, or whether it somehow affects the mood, relatively speaking, of the russian elites, if we are talking about such a category, that is, either a russian... the leader of the clan head, is there a certain tension there, because linguistically speaking, it seems that last year you said that you should not hope for any changes or contradictions in the elites, in what direction is this situation developing now, because why

am i asking, after prigozhin's rebellion there was silence, there were reports yesterday or the day before yesterday that they had arrested one of the deputy ministers of... and i think that this a sign of what what a trend, because it's not for nothing, they probably took care of shoigu's entourage, are there any nuances that we need to know, take into account, well... here are two important factors, or three, which still leave me pessimistic that it's some kind of such a significant split, firstly, we still have little information, we remember when this information appeared, you know, there is pure information, there is a connotation, its evaluation, and some emotional coloring, but when the information first appeared , that this timur ivanov is the minister of defense. detained, it was clean information, that is, everyone was in a stupor, i mean the russian propaganda media there

, in general, the russian media, they didn’t understand how to present it, that is, they simply detained him, until it is clear, he is being taken there and then, that’s it, now it is not yet clear how it will be promoted, and so far even we see only assumptions from different sides, but there is no, you know, such a general line, this is the first, that is, we need more information, more er... understanding of what narratives the russian will choose propaganda. second, putin, so to speak, was re-elected, this is his prerogative to propose a new composition of the government, and a new one, new heads of these departments, respectively, in principle, this can be presented as a planned staff rotation and send the shoigu to some state emergency service, their counterpart, somewhere else. and the third is a very important position, that is, what exactly

did this timur ivanok do, he was engaged in construction, construction in all ages and in all countries was a very nice position, and it is really without exaggeration billions of dollars, he was already engaged in it, so to speak , recovery in the occupied territories in the volume well, mariupoli and not only, the quartering of soldiers, these are billions and billions of... which are actually not accounted for, you can say, well, war, here the coefficients are increased, a state secret, so for now i would not call it a direct split of the elites and something very significant, more information is needed, and again, if they wanted to replace shoigu, then in principle, the reason, that is, the re-election of putin and the reformation of the government, is quite so legitimate. a legitimate reason and a legitimate date for it, which concerns

business elite, as for the inner circle, we see that it has actually crystallized, it is actually unchanged, there they are trying to show the fresh blood of this apti alaudinov... bending over to the ministry of defense and calling him that , well, it seems to be one of the alternatives kadyrov regarding the new as the new head of chechnya or a possible watcher from the federal center, but it is still too early to talk about it, we do not see a fundamental split yet, and it will be seriously influenced by how putin... will be able or not to expand his the plateau of the so-called stability after

prigozhin's rebellion and after his so-called re-election, because the fact that now it seems that in russian society there are no very serious protest moods or any serious speeches or any excesses, this in no way means that they are not will be tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, and the reason for this could be... anything, again, because the kremlin regime, putin, cannot explain and cannot predict to the public when it will all end, and why, if everything is going according to plan, why stable the lives of russians are deteriorating and why, for example, there may be the next wave of mobilization, we again have to address this factor as well, 74... russians, this is generally across all generations, or if we take the generation of 18-30 years old, that is, which in the first

place will develop, 84 among them, among this age category, against the second mass wave of partial mobilization or mobilization, but this will also be a very important factor stability. mr. oleksandr, thank you very much for your work, for your evaluations for the time you have assigned to our broadcast and to our viewers, let me remind you that it was oleksandr. the head of the institute of conflictology and analysis of russia, we can already see this, a non-governmental organization that analyzes what is happening in russia, and further we will talk about... how should we confront this reality that was created, or partially created by the russian federation, what is the most vulnerable in the russian concept of this systemic distortion of the world, we will talk about it after the advertising information break. events, events happening right now and

affect our lives. of course, the news feed reports on them, but few know what is happening. it is necessary to understand. antin borkovskii and invited experts soberly assess the events, analyze them, modeling our future. every saturday at 1:10 p.m., with a repeat on sunday at 10:10 a.m. studio zahid with anton borkovsky, at espresso. we continue our "war and weapons" program. and now hryhoriy lyubovets joins us. he is one of the heads of the communications and content security center. specialists of this center. who received the ivan franko prize for the work how to protect themselves and the country in the conditions of totalitarian information confrontation. this work, a monograph, by the way, is extremely deep, which assesses the risks of the modern world. mr. grigory, i congratulate you, i am glad to see and hear you. by the way, good day. with the previous guest, we talked

about what is happening in russia, we talked about the fact that they have, relatively speaking, a new social contract there. although i know that you do not support the word social contract in relation to russia, but in any case, i wanted to hear your assessment of what is happening now in the russian federation on the current stage, and what we should oppose from our side to those concepts that are now trying to develop in the russian federation under the leadership of this military-political clique. it must be said here that this topic is huge. but i will try to be specific and precise. the first thing i would pay attention to is analyzing the putin regime by video information, and by or by the content they provide, it is very unpleasant and practically, such a thing that

works in the opposite way. all our understanding that analysis is the basis of what we see practically does not work with this mode, why? because they have created an industry that visually makes the reality they talk about, and the real processes practically work in the other direction, so ter... social contract, society, state, it's all not about putin's russian federation. there are a lot of terms, practically, with which we operate here, and this is precisely our cognitive trap, that is, learning processes from

inadequate tools. and you ask a fun question. how and what to do with it? well , first of all, understand and accept that made yesterday by the european parliament. er , there were no presidential elections in the conditional russian federation, they were recognized as illegitimate at the level of the european parliament. prior to this, parier, practically even before the new year, said that after march 17 in the russian federation... there will be no legitimate government, which means there is no legitimate government, which means that all institutions are inadequate to international law, and let's remember that the putinites themselves have renounced international rights as the basis for relations with the world already several years ago, but they themselves require

all countries to follow it right, this is the paradox. practically shows the scale of the problem you are asking about, so we can’t talk about it in 10 minutes, you understand, if there are questions, i will try to answer them, well, that is, as i understand it, we are now trying to analyze russia from our coordinate system, and russia has already imposed a different model of the world, and in fact, we are forced to act differently, then the question arises: what should we analyze in the actions of the russian federation, and most importantly, how can we counteract this russia or the russian corporation in informational and military. in this regard , indeed, you mentioned the word very correctly, corporation, i would refer everyone to

the scientific works, by the way, very powerful works of dmitry shusharin, he is a muscovite, but not a putinite, he is a scientist, he is such an outstanding personality, and he wrote several works, quite academic, but very... very acceptable and simple, it is a pleasure to read them, he tells what the modern regime is, modern muscovy, as we say in our center, and he shows why and what directions of interaction with it, condition is inadequate to all practices that exist in the modern, international world, this is practice. yesterday, not the prime minister, but the minister of foreign affairs of great britain cameron announced that he and great britain cannot return

to international relations with putin's russian federation. practically, cameron is correcting his mistake of the 14th year now, but what is very important, great britain again for the first time. raises the regime of clarity in relation to putin's regime absolutely in the absolute, that this substance is not contractual, it is not a system of international relations, therefore it is necessary, well, we are already saying, to dismantle. then, mr. grigory, the question arises, relatively speaking, there is a corporation there, russia is governed by an authoritarian regime. developed its concepts of changing the world order, and there is a democratic world, and there is ukraine, which must develop optimal

models of countermeasures, so i would like to hear from you what is in our assets that allows, well, really to provide a real counterbalance, or maybe even to outplay the russians there on the information field and including on the military field, here i would say that first of all, i did not agree on the corporation, the corporatization of the population, which was carried out quite technologically, led to the fact that there, that is , in russia, in the conditional russian federation , there is no society, it is difficult to understand, but it is so, because every social group took away their, as i say... functional cell, and they perform it under pressure, under, by the way, genocidal behavior. the putinists

introduced genocidal behavior not only in the occupied territories of ukraine, they also use it in the territory of russia federation. it is very precisely shown in these natural or climatic disasters. when the water flooded entire regions and that practically the central government and local government do little for the people. this is an example when, practically, with their population, the putinites do not behave like the government, not like representatives, let's say, of these social groups. therefore, the topic is precisely that it is a corporate corporation that operates. only a function of pressure, intimidation and survival, you are showing it in front of you, and this is the reality that

is difficult to hide, but very interesting, and this and a reality that is difficult to hide, but very interesting options, how they explain it, we don't have time here now, that's another topic, but what i'm leading to, i'm leading to what you ask... what to do and why we indeed, ukraine has the potential and perspective to teach our partners to understand what is happening there and to understand what they are preparing. one of the main positions is that they are not going back, they are preparing the whole world for such a future, which will operate by force, and force will supplant the international. law and generally law and humanity as the basis relations between people, that is, the topic of depopulation, the topic of humanity - this is practically a vision. of ukraine.

ukraine is now in the line of fire, showing not just prowess, heroism and such honorable behavior. it also shows an example to the whole world that by dying, our soldiers show a higher, higher category of humanity, because they save with their lives, not only their brothers, not only the settlements where they... fight, but they practically save ukraine as an environment , the space and space of world statehood, therefore ukraine itself has both doctrinal advantages and visionary advantages, precisely the possibilities of maintaining this civilizational basis of humanity and peace on a planetary scale, and i would very much like to draw your

attention to it. that the eyes are high, as the pathetic terms say, now these terms are practical, because we live in a super-dynamic world, what happened yesterday is already, as it were, history, and what will happen tomorrow is our real future, because an example very simple today: today are the leaders of chernobyl, the chernobyl tragedy, but today we are witnessing the occupation of a foreign nuclear power plant, if chernobyl was blown up one reactor, the zaporizhia nuclear power plant currently has six reactors in cold shutdown mode, what is really happening with these reactors, practically no one knows, not even the magate mission, why? because putin's people do not allow them to access technological possibilities in full mode, and here's to you. on

the one hand, history, lately we are talking only about weapons, ramstein will pass there, they will give a certain amount of weapons equipment, this will strengthen our capabilities on the front line, but it means that then in this process as partners, we have to add a conceptual component of civilization, which, as i see, is not always perceived by partners, which means that our diplomatic and political bodies should still work more effectively in this direction. it is strange, but on the other hand , the army is still, if the risks have increased, the formats of threats are changing, then, relatively speaking, the future appearance of the ukrainian army must be adequate to the threats that russia produces on the battlefield, and it is not only there, relatively speaking , cabs, artillery there, or superiority in manpower tech, what do you think about this, very interesting, very good question, huge, but i just want to say

one thing here today: understanding the future of the army shows how inadequate we are to understand the world today, why do you think what will happen in the future of the army , and there will not be a heat-free space in which everyone performs different functions, you look at the modern army, you understand that if society, ukrainian ... society, did not work, then the topic of the army would be practically nominal, and we would , probably not sitting here anymore, as we sit with you now and use the modern possibilities of modern technologies, therefore the topic of the future is primarily the topic of space, what are the putinites doing, today, yesterday, the day before yesterday, every day, they are destroying sumyshchyna with cabs, what are cabs? these are technologies

that