after all, macron will take the position, and here is the position of sidzenpin, that actually he will tell macron, what he will convince him, what to do or how to act in the context of ukraine, can it be connected, perhaps, to this global peace summit, which will take place in june? it is very difficult for me to speak about chijin ping's position and china in general, because i am not an expert on china, it is not a country that i know, i can speak for france, so... i refrain from this comment, but i can say , that china will definitely try to explain its own vision and its position on the russian conflict, probably china will also assure france that it does not help russia. but tell me, the limon publication, let's say, before sidzimpi's visit, wrote that the elysee palace really wants to express to the chinese leader their concerns regarding the activities of certain chinese companies that... that

could contribute to russia's military efforts. by and large, this statement of the elysee palace is very similar to the statement of the united states secretary of state anthony blinken, who during his stay in pekini said that if china does not take measures to limit the activities of these companies in relations with russia, the united states will do it, and france will be ready to do something concrete, or will it just be a statement? well , look, here again it is difficult to determine this, since on the one hand there is a problem with this import after all. which goes through third countries, for example, china can also import, i mean export its own, let's say, dual -purpose products to russia through third countries, and this imposes questions, imposes problems, we this was seen as even some western enterprises that exported to russia already after the 22nd year, uh, dual -use technologies through some second-third countries, where in kyrgyzstan, for example, they grew there... in an astronomical progression,

import from abroad, for example, there are washing machines or some other equipment that was then resold to russia, those elements, those chips were used by the russian defense industry, so here the question is completely different, but of course france now declares itself as a leader, at least sees himself as a leader in europe and regarding the ukrainian-russian war, also wants to have a leadership position, so of course france will speak in my opinion, although again i do not have official confirmation, but i... think that france will still speak on this topic with china about restrictions or inadmissibility of exports to russia, anything that can be used, again by the russian defense industry, but here is another question, how much china will be interested in this and how much china will listen to it, and in my opinion france is not here plays the main role, and the main role will be played by, for example, the united states of america, because we saw how certain companies refused to export goods to russia when america said so.

what will happen, will there be sanctions regarding these campaigns, i would also like to touch on the topic of israel, palestine, iran, so in the context of even the same visit of xi jinping to paris, in your opinion, will the issues of the war that is currently ongoing in israel be discussed , whether it will be possible to discuss the issues of iran in context. those of the very aggression that he has shown recently, that is, will it be , conditionally speaking, one of the key, key topics of this conversation, well, it will definitely be, in general, a geopolitical agenda, it will be, in my opinion, the main one, not even so much bilateral relations, but a geopolitical agenda, russia's war with ukraine, conflicts in the middle east, the issue of iran, china's position in general, but also economic issues.

will be, but again we remember, for example, that china, let's say, tried, or at least pretended to try to somehow influence iran, so that iran would influence their houthi proxies in yemen so that they do not attack ships, yes navigation, we saw that this did not give any result, in principle, except maybe that they do not attack russian ships or chinese ships, but in general it did not lead , let's say so, before some solution of the issue, of course... there will be a geopolitical trip, i repeat the main one, but there will also be an issue of espionage, because even literally, it seems, 10 days ago, the financial times wrote about the detention of a british couple who spied in favor of, in favor of china, and chinese industrial, chinese industrial espionage, this is, in my opinion, one of the main threats to the countries of western europe, which come from china, if you separate it, of course, from the geopolitical agenda, but by the way, don't you think that for... now

he doesn't understand, let's say, the goals of china, i mean, the political goals, just as he didn't understand the political goals of russia until recently. i generally think that we... have a problem in the west, it's a problem, let's say, listening to ourselves, uh, we generally have confidence in that we are right, as was the case with the issues of russia and ukraine, when for years, experts from the countries of central and eastern europe, although they listened to them, communicated with them, but did not listen to them, the time when, for example, the information that was provided by russian experts was taken at face value and then... by experts into the french information space, this, in my opinion, is a problem that we think that we know what is happening better than everyone else regarding the issue of ukraine, the problem is already less acute, since it became clear, and here only let's say, a person who is not very intellectually educated

can say that we were right, the eastern europeans were not, so there was a change here, and quite a global one, in my opinion, but with regard to china, it is again, china is not, let's say, directly does not threaten militarily, as the russian federation can potentially threaten the european union, therefore china is certainly perceived as a lesser threat, china is perceived as an economic power, as a factor, for example, it can influence different processes in different regions, destabilize or stabilize there, but as of today, china does not lead any invading armies, it does not behave like the russian federation, which ... in 2008 not so long ago seized part of the territory of georgia, seized the 14th part of ukraine, and now in 2022 is waging war, armed aggression against ukraine , russian er, let's say, information warfare, russian cyber operations, russian er, active actions, let's say,

led to the fact that france was banally squeezed out of the african continent, from its, let's say, traditional territories, where ee ... france had considerable influence, and that was all it happened literally not so long ago, it’s been there for 5-7 years, let’s say, you understand, that’s why there is a perception of russia, of course, as a threat, and with regard to china, i think it’s more interesting to see in china, for sure , some, let’s say, power, which maybe can again, to somehow influence players like russia, or for example like iran, but again we see that china is not eager to influence them. in this situation, we can generally assume that europe is ready for some economic instruments, let's say so, if china continues to be on his own well, look, again, it’s a very difficult question, if you look, france, as i said, seems to be importing, i even

have data somewhere, i’ll tell you now, it imports from china, boom-boom-boom, it seems like 70 or more billions of goods on... 70 plus billions billions of euros exports much less, the question is whether we can reorient ourselves, find some other markets, find some influence, of course influence not to give access to some companies, as for example there was a story with huawei once, where huawei used to come out in the 2010s the european market and wanted to implement 5g technology, and then there were issues with espionage, there were issues with influence and in general with , let's say, espionage. ness and there was a decision not to allow these companies to implement this technology, but again everything is changing and, for example, we already hear some voices that are more inclined to, for example, let china into information technology, so to the west , there are countries that

did not care about this at all, which are calm, for chinese companies such as huawei are very feel good, so again there is a question of economic, let's say, possibility, because every policy, you understand, international foreign policy, it must be based on something, you can't just make decisions that can't be supported by anything, and before how to make decisions, by the way, in my opinion, this was partly the problem of ukraine in some sense, that certain goals were declared, but which were officially very difficult to achieve, there was no opportunity for this, neither economic nor even political will, but that's another question, and that's why i see, i see, i i see that again this is very... you understand, those relations, for example, the position that lithuania can afford, that towards china, france cannot afford. mr. denis, we thank you for your thoughts and your analysis. denys kolesnyk, a political commentator, was on the live broadcast of saturday's

political club. we are moving on, and we have a whole hour of communication with vitaly portnikov. we will discuss similar. all the highlights of the week, the biggest threats to our country, traditionally everything we do in the second part of this program, sir? vitaly, let's go back, shall we come to an important topic, which is now being discussed by ukrainians, the main intelligence agency, and the foreign press. here, for example, the deputy chief intelligence directorate of the ministry of defense, vadym skibitskyi, stated that at the end of may, at the beginning of june, there may be another attack by the russian federation on... ukraine, in particular, he says that it may not only be there are donetsk region,

luhansk region, kherson region, and it could be kharkiv region and sumy region, what should we expect from these coming months, they are called such alarming and difficult for our country. well, first of all, no one knows this. here i am, when i hear all these forecasts, what will happen in a month, in two in the war. i always remind you, remember to yourself on february 23, 2022, what you imagined how it would all be, now all the great military experts have become ours, and how did they imagine this war on the 23rd, and how did they imagine this one a month later war, when many were saying: listen, it's going to be years, it's a typical conflict like in syria, get ready for many years of war, everyone i say, but no, this cannot be, we have people in general. there were no people in sociology who believed that it was for, two years, i don’t say for

eight, well, we were told about two or three weeks, something, two or three weeks tomorrow, but even just we are talking about the usual idea, then remember the idea of ukrainian offensive, when we discussed where we will be in crimea, in melitopol, now the conversation about the russian offensive begins, the offensive generally takes place where it is not expected, remember the liberation of kharkiv region, of course there is a certain position. always in the army where it is clear that it can be pushed out of there, because it can be on a very inconvenient foothold there, let's say it was with the russian army in kherson, are there such positions of the ukrainian army or not, what ratio of potentials is different, i do not know this, but again - still, this is a huge coincidence of the whole, i would say such a list of circumstances, as a rule, the strength of a military expert is that he explains the results of the battle that ended. rather than explaining the results of the battle that is planned, what i don't know what will happen next month, talk about

the obvious directions of strikes by russian forces, i would n't do it either, because the russians also understand very well that if we know where they will strike from, then we are preparing for that, the truth is, it means that they will strike not where we expect them, hitting the entire contact line is also quite difficult, so to speak, we have a few difficult months ahead of us there, i think we have a few difficult years ahead of us, why months, there will be russian offensives, we will deter them, there may be our offensives, they will be deterred russians, this is a long-term war with all this logic of its own, such a typical multi-year conflict, the war is positional, it has become so in me, it seems, in the fall of 2022, from now on. she passed, and again, this is just an ordinary lunch, everything else is talk around,

many said that in 6 months, if the war does not end, she will pass the opposition state, and the parties can hardly achieve what they will regain significant parts of the occupied territory in the ukrainian case, or by occupying significant parts of the ukrainian territory in the russian case. case, this is how it looks so far, the only problem for some of russian actions, as well as ukrainian ones, the fact that it is possible to deliver some kind of blow, where the front falls with such force that all the armed forces simply flee, retreat in a disorganized manner, and the enemy there reaches some new frontier, and then negotiations about capitulation, either we or russia. well, here the russians may not capitulate, they may simply withdraw from our territory in such a situation, but everything

else, when we talk about settlements there , i want to remind you again from 2022, from the moment when the russians took kherson, and then we recaptured kherson, no large settlement was even occupied again or recaptured, we are talking about the names of some villages. which we generally only hear about for the first time, when the russians can seize them, well, of course, there is an exception here, this is avdiivka, it is true, it... was actually an industrial hub, and therefore, by the way, the loss of avdiivka is really an event in this war, because it was on the fortification of an old, old one, because the russians broke through this fortification and provided themselves with this a certain tactical advantage, this is the price of delay with western help, specifically, but again

, after this tactical advantage, it is also very difficult for the russians to go anywhere further... seriously advance, we see, again, but what really changes, if we imagine, i i mean from the point of view of the course of the war, that russia suddenly, in the worst case, captured some large settlements, let's say there in the donetsk region, well, it already captured them, exactly as i asked in 2023, well, we captured melitopol and liberated it from dew to what extent it is actually indicated throughout the course of the war? we have a route to crimea, well, now after avdiyivka , the russians have a conditional route to kostiantynivka, to pokrovsk, to kramatorsk, slovyanskyi, well, as much as they are available, they can use it, how long does it take, as much as we would could you use it then?

that is, it is important, you know, that if it were andrii, the war, for specific territories, we knew what we were fighting for. the russians want to restore the territorial integrity of the donetsk region, which they annexed, and we want it deoccupy the war is for something completely different, the russians want to destroy this state, we want it to remain. well, in such a situation, you have to live in the logic of a long-term conflict. and to understand that all these events around specific settlements, they are generally for the next ten years, nothing changes. of course, there may be a truce on a certain line of demarcation, there may not be. but all these are very conditional things, you see, well, i will remind you that during the vietnam war, even after the parties had already signed a peace agreement, and communist vietnam was capturing all sorts of populated areas in south vietnam, still the nature of the war remained positional until the communists broke through to

saigon, during the war in afghanistan there was an insurgency... from the time the soviets were in charge , it 1979, they captured various cities there, even large ones, they captured some mountainous settlements there, this continued for years, until they got the opportunity to enter kabul, that is, all these positional battles, they are of course interesting to contemporaries, but the course of the war they are not are changing, we just have to ask ourselves the question, russia... is not concentrating, that means, significant forces to capture large cities, well , we are now saying that kharkiv is under attack, but there are not enough troops to take the city, again and kharkiv is a border city, are there forces to capture kyiv, i don't see such possibilities, which at the moment changes from the point of view of the war,

the capture of some settlements in the east, from the point of view of the course of the war itself, nothing special, except that that people stay under... occupation, certain economic opportunities are decreasing, it is true, it is obvious that this should not be allowed, it is obvious that kharkiv should be defended so that even the russians do not think that they can seize it, but simply from the point of view of the global map , odesa, the loss of access to the sea, this is serious, yes, this is a strategic goal, of course, but it is unlikely, and the russians, of course, understand that even if they agree that ukraine remains on the political... map of the world, that they cannot neutralize it, they must deprive it of exit to the sea, a completely different country can be created in this way from the point of view of economic, political, and military capabilities, but this is not even in the plans at the moment, so we must always discuss these military plans for the coming years there, if

of course suddenly everything will not end there with some kind of truce after six months, a year or a year, it can also be there, for example, this representative of military intelligence says that there will be negotiations within the year 25, someone says that there will be negotiations earlier, i do not i don't see any basis for negotiations at all, today's announcement of the search for two ukrainian presidents at once, poroshenko and zelenskyi, says that the kremlin stands by the idea of ​​delegitimizing the ukrainian government, and is not going to do any negotiations with it, but there may be a truce, that is, again still, we don't know when the 24th or the 29th, but these are absolutely real chances. well, we well understand that, in addition to this, in fact, taking even some small settlements is demoralizing at the moment, at least they are trying to moralize ukrainian society, and of course, this is the death of our defenders, listen, but this is the logic of a war of attrition, if you want

to win a war of attrition in it, then your task is not to invent any myths in which you believe, you understand , and then not to be disappointed and demoralized. you are not the apostle paul, who went through the desert and met jesus christ there. it happens only once, when you want to see a miracle, and you can do it. you must be an apostle. and you and i are not apostles, we are with you we live in the real world, we can invent something, then it doesn't happen and we can get depressed. what is it? we thought that there was already coffee in the christmas tree. and there is no coffee in the christmas tree. no. this is the calculation of the russians. they want to demoralize ukraine. society and clearly tell him that you cannot do anything, so to speak, psychologically prepare the ground for

surrender, this is an absolutely correct calculation, if you cannot defeat the enemy, you must demoralize him, he must wake up every day with the thought, that's all soon it will be over and he will lose, it has to be with the military, it has to be with the people in the rear, they have a little bit... get used to the idea that tomorrow there will be russian troops here in your place, and you will have to do something about it, i am not saying at all that people should not have such thoughts, but in general, a person differs from an animal in that he has a variability of thinking, of course, if you think that the russians can break through somewhere and take over your region, well, think that you you will do in this situation, join the partisans or leave the... region, but you may have another option, that the ukrainian troops will liberate the region that is nearby, and you should also think about what to do in this situation, on the contrary, you may find yourself in

a much safer place, than the one in which you lived, all options are important in war: life, death, liberation, capture, death, with everyone who is on the front, who is not on the front, this is war, that is, you don't have to make up with every person , which is located on the territory of ukraine. anything can happen during war and up to for each of these options, both for the positive and for the negative, you need to be ready and you don't need to be demoralized, i say this all the time, this is the most important point, because if you get demoralized, consider that the russians have already won. one more point, the russians can prepare ukrainian society for the future, this is also an absolutely correct calculation, well, let's say, the war will end, and they already understand that, in principle , they will not have such... great success in the war, but they have to create an impression , what was that here and there, here and there, by some miracle we went and

met the lord in the desert, and he told us that everything would be fine, it did not happen for objective reasons, but simply somehow it did not happen, they lacked a little bit, which means that this... society is coming out of the war and it immediately votes for those forces that we talked about with you at the beginning of our program, which say, we will have normal relations with russia, we will coexist with it, that is in this context, you allude to georgia, by the way , georgia, by the way, georgia, mr. vitaly very rightly said that georgia, remember, 2008, the attack on... this is abkhazia and this is south ossetia, which are now actually

occupied by russia. we understand that several years have passed since then, and in georgia they are receiving a huge amount of trust, forces that, well, even if they do not directly declare that - as they say, somewhere in the middle we will meet, somewhere there we will normalize relations , and indeed i agree with the fact that there is a great threat that russia also works for the future, that is , russia works in a hybrid way, russia never works only by military methods, this is the state security committee, they don't know how to do anything else at all, they know this much better than fighting, they sit for days and weeks and draw up all these plans. different departments, for different, different options, for different development of the situation, and here i always hear that ukraine cannot be, become georgia, because georgia had a short war, and we have such a... long one, well,

first of all , which means there was a short war in georgia? in georgia, of course, the intense war was short, but in georgia the conflict with russia was from the end of the 80s, the beginning of the 90s, people were beaten on rustavelli avenue with these sappers, shovels, as history knows, back in soviet times, once upon a time, there was a war in abkhazia, a real one on the territory of abkhazia, which ended in military ethnic cleansing, expulsion of almost all ethnic georgians, for . with the exception of those who lived in the gali district, this is the majority of the population of the autonomous republic. two. during the 2008 war, there was ethnic cleansing of georgians on the territory of south ossetia. three. that is, we are actually all the time we are talking about a different type of conflict. they were in such a confrontation all the time. president eduard sevarnadze was taken by helicopter from the war zone so that he would not be

captured by the troops. who were then led there by the future leaders of the chechen national resistance there, shamil basayev and others, who fought there with the russian army together against the georgians, speaking between us, we forget about it, but these are the facts of history, but what about the then head of the council of ministers of abkhazian autonomy, appointed shovernadze, he was shot, we have all these facts that we don't remember, we don't know them, because then ukraine was not interested in anything, we were all friends from... this georgia did not arouse any special sympathy in most of our compatriots at that time, and even less with that moreover, our compatriots were fighting in transnistria against moldova, do you remember our national radicals, well, that is, let's not mention history now, i'm just telling you that georgia moved

to normalization after a decade, approximately, no, 20 years, 20 years of history , historical and military tests, ethnic purges, people who lived in hotels for decades, dreaming of getting to their native places, did not get anywhere, and i generally believe that the formula is completely different: the more severe the war, the greater the demand for normalization in society, so i have a big question: "why did it turn out to be so serious in georgia, if the war was so short, and i answer myself, because they lived in it for 20 years, because the war was long, because they lived in tension, cold, lack of light, lack of water, ruins, civil conflicts provoked moscow, you can say from gamsakhurdia to

saakashvili." there was a war under saakashvili, and they just don't want it anymore, they just want to live normally, and i will remind you that the person who canceled the visa regime for citizens of the russian federation was exactly mykhailo saakashvili, when he was president, not poor ivanishvili, to attract russian tourists, business, to have money, to live normally, everything. and now we see that some part of the people is appearing again, saying: "no, we don't want to live normally if we have there will be no freedom", but this is a new stage. so, therefore, why, russians, understanding all this, they are preparing us for exactly such emotions, you see, and then, in principle, coming to power in ukraine, and we have 80% of the votes in the elections, from uzhgorod to the cities in the east, let's be careful to say, inevitable, everyone who will go

to vote will have only one idea that he will never be called to the tsk again, his wife will have the idea that he and her husband will never be called to tatsk, his mother will have the idea that her son never called to cska, no more ideas who will not be there if you tell them: listen, i am petro petrovsky, i will make sure that we, that russia will never... fight with us, we will not, we will remember, be proud of our military successes, honor your defenders, but there will never be a war again, you will not have to fight, because we will build a completely different system mutually, i will become the president in 20 years, you will take me out of the bank, simply because i have already dried up in the presidential office, you understand so long will this society fear war, the problem is that...