less support for ukraine, and he was impeached precisely because of the way he treated president zelensky, i mean the first impeachment of president trump. however, despite this, it was not barack obama who provided military aid to ukraine after the previous russian invasion. it was donald trump who first authorized the transfer of javelin anti-tank missiles to ukraine. moreover, when speaker johnson announced his intention to put the aid package for ukraine to a vote, trump did not object to it and even. expressed positive emotions towards speaker johnson after the successful approval of the aid package. i think that even donald trump, as unpredictable and problematic as he is, because of his relationship with russia, will understand that the united states needs to continue to support ukraine as much as possible. as for tucker carlson, he is completely discredited in the united states. his interview with vladimir putin humiliated him, and now he is considered. a netka or

a clown sitting in putin's pocket, and his next interview with mr. dugin further strengthened this perception. the interview with vladimir putin was absolutely disgraceful. carlson acted like a schoolboy watching michael jordan or lionel messi. and people saw this and understood that he was just a fool on putin's side. carlson's reputation as a journalist has been irreparably damaged, although he still has supporters among some far-right conspiracy theorists. its mainstream influence has waned considerably, so there's no reason to worry about it going forward relevance thank you very much, dear mr. ambassador brazyt, for this brilliant analysis on the air of the tv channel, i want to remind our tv viewers that matthew bryza, ex-adviser of the united states secretary of state, former director of european and eurasian affairs at the us national security council, worked for them. thank you. glory to ukraine. glory to heroes. join

the ranks of the 100th separate mechanized brigade of the armed forces of ukraine. protect yours. the result of their work is our safety. they, the boys from volyn, proved that everyone can be a warrior, they are strong in spirit, they value the ability to stand side by side with their brothers and sisters, all the way to holy victory. everyone who pilots a uav understands it, prepares, treats, repairs, rolls kilometers of roads, fills in stacks of documents, and significantly strengthens. who covers the enemy with torrential fire and returns meter by meter our native land. join the ranks of the 100th separate mechanized brigade of the armed forces of ukraine. let's stick together. and now oleksandr morozov, political expert, publicist, who is currently in prague, will work on the air of the tv channel. i congratulate you, mr. oleksandr. good day, congratulations. well, as if a small story when we talk about the arrest of the russian minister of defense ivanov, that is

, small against the background of the general apocalypse, but in any case it is a very characteristic and possibly symptomatic moment, that is, a person who, in principle, was, well, his main function - this is working as shoigu's wallet, that's how she received a black label from the fsb, and we understand that this means that the patrushev clan is more likely to be strengthened at the expense of the shoigu clan. first, it must be said that the arrest of a person with... status is an extraordinary event for all of russia political machine and military-political machine. and the consequences of this will naturally be very significant, i think those who are now saying that the blow to sergei shoigu is quite serious are right. and if he did not try to soften this blow now, besides, many expect that after the inauguration, when putin announces the composition of the new government, there will be...

a new minister of defense, it is quite possible. but this is one aspect of personnel, it can be quite important, because who will be next, it is important, and if indeed a blow to the shoig is struck patrushev and his people, and they are primarily the initiators of this, then, of course, this will mean further mobilization. escalation of the war on their part. but there is another assumption, which is related to what the kremlin is preparing. transfer to this body everything related to military construction, provision of the army, i.e. the entire state procurement system, remove it from the ministry of defense. in this case, the beneficiary is chemezov, and apparently, then his person will possibly head the ministry of defense, so far this is all a corrupt assumption. it must be said

everyone saw that deputy minister ivanov lived very richly, he did not hide his wealth and the prosperity of his family. it was too bold, he felt reliably protected, but at the same time the whole system of kickbacks, a lot is being written about it now in telegram channels, where some details of the investigation are reported, there are already some testimonies, those who managed subcontractors, there are really huge kickbacks and stretching budget funds. in fact, there is good news in this, because this whole environment of z-patriots, all those from the ideological reasoning is engaged in the development of the occupied... territories, they are all now shouting out loud, looking at the arrest of ivanov and the details that are getting into the public, they are all burnt out, because they see perfectly well that all this, the so-called restoration of mariupol, is all a huge financial scam and looting.

in fact, this is not so bad, because it shows the terrible depravity of the entire putin system. of course, i would like citizens to draw some conclusions from this. well , unfortunately, the hope that someone will draw certain conclusions in i am not too optimistic, but if we talk, for example, about role-playing games now in the kremlin and around putin, that is, you mentioned that the strengthening of patrushev will mean the strengthening of the war party. on the one hand , patrushev is primarily the fsb and the rest of the russian security forces, and in this sense. words, he is a key figure of the war party, but at the same time , a completely unexpected turn of events cannot be ruled out, why? because, of course, patrushev is a supporter of the whole concept of the destruction of ukraine and the conflict with the west, but at the same time it is quite likely that he

can insist or at least suggest a scenario or in any case an operational game around a scenario of a cease-fire is quite possible. the problem here is: which of these military men is proposing a long-term military strategy for this war? that is, what to do? we read, and everyone sees it, of course, that the kremlin is going to storm kharkiv or capture odesa, or maybe it is going to go to the banks of the dnieper, everywhere. all these are political fantasies, they become reality even in domestic politics. russian only if there is a military plan. so, big changes are possible here in the power structures, and depending on who is there and how they will end up, we will then already focus on what future scenario both the power structures and the army structures will offer to putin, respectively, this

will determine the war scenario. well, in any case, the kind of operational war plan that putin has on his desk boils down to... even marshal shapushnikov's old formula of advancing before the end of the offensive impulse, that's how they classically formulated the whole thing, the offensive impulse we we understand that these are some russian ones military personnel and equipment, but when this case ends, they would like to go to one or another attempt to nullify the results, or vice versa, for example, try to go to one or another truce, i don't know if this is really so, i don't know how ... with what blood will putin be ready to attack now, but in any case, are they now preparing for even more large-scale actions, or would they, in your opinion, still want to maintain the current level of escalation and aggression? well, shelling peaceful cities with ballistic missiles with cluster

munitions is a war crime, so are we we understand that this fits into the strategy of intimidating very specific residents, very specific cities. in recent days, i have been observing, reading what is being written, following the news and military summaries and comments of military experts, i am inclined to the opinion, i have the feeling that, after all, it is necessary to focus on a possible major offensive by the kremlin, that is , an attempt to organize a breakthrough, why, because, on the one hand, it is clear that such a tangible tactical success, firstly, would look good for the kremlin against the background of future american elections, this is the first thing. secondly, it would look good against the background of european solidarity, which is now actively forming and has been forming all these six months. that is , in such a situation, the kremlin would show the usa and europe: "well, no matter what you do there, no matter how hard you try, we still achieve a tangible

result." and in this sense of the word yes, the temptation is very great. i think putin is preparing for a convincing offensive. but at the same time, let's emphasize that at the moment we do not see those military... capabilities with the help of which an offensive can be carried out, because when they write that 20-40 thousand soldiers are ready to storm kharkiv, this is again an unrealistic number for such an attempt, and it is obvious... that the general staff should insist on having 100,000, 200,000 just to try to take the big city. and among other things, i have no doubt that russian military leaders will weigh the consequences of the scale of civilian casualties and casualties of their own military in such an offensive operation. i think this issue will not be easily resolved. a story with a big, even bigger mobilization in russia. with on the one hand, on the other hand, well , large-scale offensive actions, they involve

an increase in the number of personnel, but there is also such a sociological issue as the level of absorption of corpses by this or that society, so we understand that at one time this threshold was lower, for example, during the afghan war, during the russo-chechen war, it was also lower, here we see that this threshold has risen and already hundreds of thousands have been killed and no... noticeable, i emphasize, noticeable, socially important reaction. yes, this is an important issue. in fact, you can't treat her like that. of course, the kremlin is cynical and knows no moral boundaries, a dictatorship, but besides that , you can't look at it too lightly. why? because it is clear that putin says to himself that he seems to be waging a war with minimum casualties, that is why the shelling, missile fire. but this is an attempt of meat assaults last summer. around which the great conflict that led to the prigozhin rebellion arose, is a kind of wound on

the body of this whole putin military concept, war machine. and it is obvious that putin and his the closest people are afraid to mobilize and organize a big offensive, precisely because behind them there is already a rather ineffective attempt to break the ukrainian front at the expense of a mass raid, will they make a bet? putin is on the offensive, a difficult answer to this question, because after all, apart from strengthening the party of war and patrushev now and apart from, perhaps, the creation of the defense council. we, of course, see, at the same time, a great, that is , continuous inflamation of this ultra-patriotic propaganda in russia. that is, if the kremlin wanted to move towards a truce or not to carry out a big offensive, not to achieve a result, then most likely they would turn up this faucet, this gnotic, the presidential administration would turn up a little. but i don't see it, and everyone who observes it, everyone sees that on the contrary, there is a degree of pressure on cultural figures who

speak from anti-war positions, the announcement of all famous people as wanted, that is, an attempt to shut everyone's throats and, on the contrary , to let as many supporters as possible to the top the long war with the west, that is, not only with ukraine, is very noticeable, clearly growing, well, kind of the collective dugin took over the discourse, so on the other hand we saw that... i think that tucker is continuing some kind of line that is being constructed for the possible arrival of trump, and this line is like this. let's see who is in russia, not from the point of view of the liberal-democratic opposition, not from the point of view of whims'. yes, quite precisely,

that is, with whom will we then deal, if, for example , we decide to move to a policy of containment with the russians? accordingly, it will be necessary to accept that they have some ideologues, politicians, that is, the point is that tucker is talking to dugin, the next move is conditionally find some figure in the federation council or in the state duma of the russians, and do that too. interview, showing that it is clear that such a person will not be against war or a supporter of eternal peace with immanuel kant, on the contrary, tucker is going to show the line with which we must continue to deal, if we accept that the russians in this form should sit in himself and forever trade with iran, this is the logic of the meeting with dugin. and dugin played tucker, he played quite thoughtfully, and as many write, he portrayed a non-orthodox madman beards, on... easily depicted something that should please the extreme right wing of the republicans, i.e. depicted a principled

critic of liberal democracy, from, i would say not orthodox, but radical individualist positions, that is , the positions of texas isolationism, relatively speaking, so this is quite important event. that is, in this way, dugin goes beyond the boundaries of what is called the russian fascist discourse, and tries to build certain bridges. understanding, well, conditionally speaking, yes, well, in practice, i don’t know, six months, a year, and so on, i.e. demonstrating that it is actually an attempt to form a new order, which is based on... so i completely agree, that's how it is, this attempt, how is it not surprising, because many mechanically continue, knowing the duhin, to believe that this is a demonstration of russian fascism , the idea is really to demonstrate that there is a group with a proven track record, going forward, that would accommodate a republican administration

with recognizably anti-liberal but perfectly acceptable rhetoric that doesn't devolve into insanity. yes, that is, fascism with human rights face, relatively speaking, that is, which can be sold or converted into some generally established and understandable forms. and if we talk, for example, about the real influence of dugin and all this codla, which perhaps somehow shapes what is called, i don't know, the discourse of the ruling party in the kremlin. all the same , it is necessary to proceed from the opinion that the kremlin does not rely on the concept of sovereignty of karl schmidt, the prime minister. not on the philosopher ilyin, not on, as they once wrote, shchedrovytsky's methodologists who influenced the presidential administration. all the same anyway, we can clearly see from putin's texts, which he pronounces and which he publishes on his behalf, and from what patrushev says, that before us is simply without any deep philosophy, as before, a classic discourse really from the soviet textbook of the kgb of the ussr. with regard to

foreign policy, it is very rude and at a lower level. proactive intellectual groups come up with something, some to justify a union state with belarus, others to justify eurasia, in general, a third add various materials for something else, some a slavic idea, some on the contrary, to milo's ideas of commonality with the horde, central asia, but at the same time, regarding the whole party of the war on the mountain, i have doubts that they read ilyin at least carefully, they simply rely on a specific late soviet party. the methodology that we are in a state of struggle against the west, and how the west uses everyone else against us, as a proxy, this is a fundamental discourse, and they adjust everything to it. dugin has a new campaign here, which never ended in the kremlin, an attempt to find partners in his philosophy, such makes a clear move in this. now they constantly

write about the fact that the kremlin has only iran, north korea and possibly china left. some say that there is an axis of evil, but moderate people say that china will not enter that axis of evil and the kremlin will remain with iran and the dprk. in response to this, dugin appears on the screen with the help of tucker and informs us: no, we see ourselves also as part of the west and want to see partners in the west, but with an anti-liberal right-wing ideology, ready for dialogue. characteristic moment, they are already passed over to the doctrinal phase of what is called preparation for an existential war, or is it currently only a so-so rhetorical figure for the presentation of aggression against ukraine. at the beginning of the february aggression of 2022, the very beginning, the entire blitzkrieg clearly demonstrated that this is exactly the format of the war, the purpose

of which is the destruction of ukraine as a state, the overthrow of the government and the complete transformation of the government. after that, there was a period when... the kremlin lost the initiative and could not achieve it, it formulated otherwise the goals of the war, began to throw in different ideas that the goal could be this or that. but now, for more than six months, we have again been in a situation where the kremlin clearly says: "this war is existential," that is , a war of either, or, that is, either us, or them, or us, or the west and ukraine, this is a matter of life and death. in fact, this is the main obstacle, even for those who would like to... initiate some kind of peace talks, if you take the vatican or india or china, they all lean against it, because the kremlin, on any attempt to ask, in why the meaning of war, answers: we will not discuss this, because this war is for us has existential meaning. that is why this remark of the minister of foreign affairs of china seemed quite important to me at the meeting with lavrov,

because when he commented on this meeting with lavrov , china, quoting the minister of foreign affairs, wrote that from our point of view, that is, china... from which point of view, the war is for russia does not make practical sense, what was meant by this is precisely what china does not see, existential war is understandable, it is a metaphysical war, it has no boundaries, it is rationally argued in a different way, and from the practical side it is a destructive war that destroys , if you look in the eyes of china, not only ukraine, this is of course a colossal loss, but it destroys a lot of all kinds of space, communications, global communications, and from this point of view it... it does not make any practical sense, but russia is waging it, and that is why this existential war on destruction of ukraine. well, you mentioned china, yes, in china. chancellor scholz visited, president macron visited china, xi jinping's visit to france, hungary and serbia is currently being prepared, we understand that antony blinkin

visited xi jinping and also very clearly talked about a certain framework, i don't know what might be behind the brackets when we talk about closed negotiations, but in any case, they are trying to stabilize china, but the question is how much china will be ready to stabilize. yes, this is the most important question, now, in my opinion, there is such a rather crude, point of view, naive, that china has completely taken the side of russia in this conflict, behind russia it is the source of the conflict with the west, and putin is only a proxy for china, but i don't look at it that way, i think that china is very a big, really independent player, as before, despite the fact that china got a relatively large market now in russia, as a result of self-isolation. but at the same time relations with the eu are extremely important for china, vitally important on the one hand. europe remains the most reliable, expensive and

calm market for china, and not only the market, and the same situation with north america, usa, canada, etc. so i would say, let's see now literally in six months, let's see the final self-determination of china. at the same time, it should be borne in mind that china is a very big problem that cannot be solved. chinese companies and businessmen will certainly remain part of the global economic darknet, shadow trade, but here it must be said that this is not a state policy, but the policy of giant layers of entrepreneurs from different countries, different peoples, who are engaged in any shadow business. it doesn't matter if it's about the withdrawal of russian money through cryptocurrency and the withdrawal of colombian mafia money through cryptocurrency. this is done by approximately the same people, exactly. the way they do anything smuggling, through any sanctions barriers. this is such a darknet, it should be fought, but in any case it should not be equated with the chinese state

position in relation to russia. thank you very much, dear oleksandr, for this extremely interesting and informative conversation, i want to remind our viewers that oleksandr morozov, publicist, political expert, who is currently in... in prague, was working on espress. the time of our program has run out, stay with the espresso tv channel. my colleagues will inform you about all the most important things events of this day. take care of yourself and your loved ones. i wish you a peaceful and blessed easter. congratulations, friends, andrii smolii's saturday political club is on the air of the tv channel. and vitaly portnikov, today, as always , every saturday we talk about the most important events of ukraine and the world, analyze, discuss and have guests.

so, we probably already have a guest on the air, so in touch. volodymyr kobchak, head of the south caucasian branch of army conversion and disarmament research. mr. volodymyr is in tbilisi, and we will start with him. from this, i would say, high-profile event of recent days, from the protests in georgia, so what is going on, mr. volodymyr, how would you characterize this persistent desire of bidzina ivanishvili and the georgian dream party to push through this law, even despite the protests , despite the obvious problems in relations between georgia and western countries. greetings, dear viewers, congratulations colleagues, well, look. the main point at the current stage is that this law on foreign agents, the second attempt

to adopt it, looks like a kriger, like a trigger hook, i consider, for example, incorrect discourse that suddenly the georgian maria, ivanishvili's penzina, as the master of the country, decided to turn georgia around, here all reversals on the contrary from armenia are waiting for the region, here they decided... to turn georgia. in fact, they decided long ago, they decided long before february 22nd. now they are simply engaged in the design of this reversal and they want to do it, let's say, with someone else's hands, so that it looks like an initiative of the west itself, the european union, the united states and so on. if anyone thinks that the georgian authorities will repeat themselves a second time, a second attempt. exactly one year later made an attempt to adopt this scandalous russian law, this is actually not true, this is exactly the reaction they were counting on, but

they... and believed and still believe that they will win, and will come to the elections at the end of october this year, that's all they will win exactly on them, but already in a state where they will be as toxic as possible for the west, with the door to the eu and nato as closed as possible, and this is also, let's say, a certain element technologies of the georgian government, so this, in my opinion, explains and gives a specific question, an answer to the question, why this should be done, because they could absolutely calmly come to the elections and, according to the rules established by them, win absolutely calmly, even with a constitutional majority . now it's just raising the stakes and making georgia, let's say, as i call it, part of the project, the imperial project of transcaucasia. please interrupt me, because i can say this endlessly. mr. volodymyr,

oh... we saw that actually thousands of people, tens of thousands of people in tbilisi come out almost every day to these protests, actually demonstrating to the georgian authorities that society, or at least an active part, is against this very bill on foreign agents, whether the state succeeds today , after all, does society still have some influence, or is the government completely deaf, as they say, and there is none? of the protests that are happening today, the opposition parties to the government and the protest will go to the end, so let's hope that the government will somehow recover and start some kind of negotiations, as it was a year ago, it is not necessary, on the contrary , the rates will rise, there is only one element, i will say, they announced in advance, or during the first adoption of the law, that they would adopt this law for the third time,

for example, on the 17th of may, so they have three times in georgia to accept, then there may be a veto by soloma zorobishvili, then, well, a simple majority can overcome it, so the third final acceptance they set for the day of the international day of equality, protection rights of lgbt people, and since the 16th year, if i am not mistaken, the georgian the authorities held an official holiday in georgia regarding of traditional values ​​and the sanctity of the family, that is , the irrelevant current protest there is always in... interesting protests take place, provocateurs work under the guise of the church, from crime, controlled by the authorities and so on, that is , they lay the foundation for an increase in the degree of confrontation, hoping to win, so i do not i see now absolutely a scenario where the parties agreed as they did a year ago. regarding the approaches of the protest, at the same time its strength and weakness is that it is absolutely network-centric, it cannot be achieved

specifically... the goal of changing power without politicians, but the question of the change of power is absolutely a question of the timing of this protest, they will necessarily, due to certain actions of the government, protest will come to the point that it will no longer be satisfied solely with the cancellation of this very draft law, which the government is not going to cancel when it happens , now nobody knows, at the moment, it is interesting, that is, the most massive protest is planned for may 11, an absolutely clear organization, i repeat... the network is centric, they work with circles of athletes, they work with circles of cultural figures, there are theaters and so on, foreign institutions, there are already, let's say, volunteer lines of the organization for collecting financial assistance, private as well as state, medical institutions, trade centers regarding means of protection have joined, that is, the process is alive and developing, a unique situation for tbilisi, when...