madam minister, she recently became a minister, but she has been in diplomacy for a long time, and we already see here that ukrainians have every right to defend their country with all available means, and from this point of view, we are doing what we can to encourage and call on our western allies, from germany to the united states, that... these latter have provided ukraine with all the weapons systems it needs, and we see no reason why ukraine should refrain from any action, from any act, if your commanders and yours management deems necessary because we understand, at least our perception is that you are competing for your existence, if so, who are we? to limit ukraine's

ability to defend itself, that is, it is your right, ukrainian intelligence, british intelligence, in principle, the western mass media have been saying in recent months that there could be a new offensive around the end of may, the beginning of june, meaning the russian offensive, yes, how do you assess whether you have such information, perhaps, or? you, being a minister the defense of latvia in the 10th and 14th years and in recent years, how do you assess this possibility, or is it realistic that russia will really go on a larger offensive. well, you see, i would say that you have to resort to common sense here. there is absolutely nothing i can do.

to share in terms of intelligence from latvian intelligence, but certainly russia sees that the ukrainians are not getting the necessary support from a number of western countries, at least in time, they know, and we know, that ukraine does not have enough shells, there is no ammunition, and a lot of things are missing from that , that western countries could or would have to give, so there are certain... at the same time, the russians know that the elections in the usa are coming, very close already on brizka, may 9, the favorite holiday of the victory over germany, so they see it as an opportunity, a good opportunity to seize more, put pressure on the ukrainians as much as possible. before

the necessary and already provided assistance from the united states and allied countries fully arrives. i say that in my opinion, the russian strategy is to push as much as possible, because the russians did not care at all about the people, about their own soldiers, they did not care about their own humanity, everything doesn't matter, they want to capture. you can be on the front line, then hope that, for example, if there is a new american president, or some public pressure in western europe, calling for ukraine to win from russia, then they will say that they are peaceful, good and bad, and they will be able to freeze conflict and stabilize. the fact that they hunched over and remain

in their positions in ukraine is not our character, it is not the character of many of our friends and supporters of ukraine, we believe that the only country and nation that can say that it is necessary to start negotiations with this totalitarian, authoritarian, aggressive russia - this is ukraine and ukrainians, no one else can do this. and whether it will be in the european union or at the washington nato summit, which is already in bresk, we will defend ukrainian positions, no matter what they are, because we believe that you have the right to freedom, to choice, to life, and whatever -any violence, any military actions are not illegal. and we have experienced this in our own history,

and we do not want to return to it in the future. it is quite understandable that civilized countries support ukraine and will try too. to convince our allies to the west to support this figure, sometimes we succeed, sometimes we fail, but we have a voice and it is heard. paldes, kunks fabrics, we thank mr. fabrics for participating in this program. arttik pabriks, former minister of defense of latvia, former member of the european parliament, who is now also running for the european parliament in the elections that will take place in just a few weeks. and now let's talk about politics from latvia to france columnist denys kolesnyk. congratulations mr. denis. now he will be with us and we will talk with him about these statements made by emmanuel

macron, the president of the french republic, who said that he even sees the prerequisites for the introduction of french troops into the territory of ukraine. mentioned these prerequisites, this is a breakthrough of the front, let's say, when something will threaten ukrainian statehood, and if there is a corresponding request to paris from the side of ukraine, it is interesting, true andriy, because and by the way, i think that we are also let's talk about the possible, or rather not possible, but the meeting with sidney pin, an important topic, this meeting will start on monday, in paris and perenei, and just... the important thing is the fact that we thought at the beginning that just emmanuel macron will say about the troops, and i will not mention it again, that such a beautiful phrase, he continues to promote this thesis even despite the reluctance of his western colleagues to hear it, and this is also a very interesting moment, not just to promote, specify,

insist, and i i think it is so serious story, mr. denis, congratulations, good day, how are you? accepted this new statement of the french president, which already contains specific prerequisites for the introduction of french troops into ukraine, it is called, what is it? well, look, in principle it was specific from the very beginning, in my opinion, france set this strategicity, this strategic uncertainty, and in principle it goes in the context of what was announced at the end of february this year, in my opinion, there are no such curiosities, let's say, nothing new, as far as i'm concerned. mr. denis, here is the question: in fact, we expect xi jinping's meeting with macron, possibly with scholz, to begin on monday, we understand that this is quite a large and quite large-scale such a tour of the chinese leader, what do you really expect

from this meeting? well, first of all, scholz won't be there, it's official, there was a meeting, huh. will be for scholz and for everyone else, scholz was offered, by the way, to join this troika, but he refused, because he had other plans, he had planned a visit to the baltic countries, it seems to be lithuania and latvia, so his it will not be, uh, what is the matter of relations between france and china, well, in general, it is very interesting, since this is the first visit of mr. pin since the pandemic year of 2019, if i am not mistaken, yes... but there is also the fact that in because he will visit france, which has now essentially taken a key position in europe in terms of supporting ukraine, and which is the only nuclear power, a member of the european union, which has, i mean, its own nuclear forces, not through nuclear sharing, but in the same time shijin

pin will also go to, let's say, more, or let's say, there are less anti-russian countries, such as serbia or in... hungary, so here too we have to look at the issues that will be discussed, it was logical that scholz and macron met on thursday, because they agreed on certain positions, and in essence, macron will speak an agreed position with scholz, but the main issues that interest, for example, france, this is a commercial issue, because trade, the turnover of trade between france and china, it is enough, does not play into the hands of france, it is france. imports a lot, china seems to be france's second partner with from the point of view of imports, but at the end there are tens in terms of exports, so there is a very, very large deficit in the trade balance between france and china, not in the direction of france. there is also , of course, the issue of ukraine, where last year we

remember that the french delegation flew to china and tried, let's say, to ask china so that china would somehow influence russia so that russia would come to its senses about the war with. ukraine, but we see that nothing has happened in vyza and now, so it is possible, or rather not that it is possible, that ukraine will appear in of these conversations, and it will also be one of the main ones. of french diplomacy, but we should also not forget that france also has overseas territories, and the issue is also the indo-pacific, yes, the quiet ater, the asia-pacific region, it is in principle also interesting for france, where china has its ambitions, and we we roughly understand what position macron will take after all, but here is the position of sydzenpine, who actually from... will tell macron what he will convince him to do or how to act in the context

of ukraine, can it be connected, perhaps, to of this global peace summit to be held in june? it is very difficult for me to speak about chijin ping's position and china in general, because i am not an expert on china, it is not a country that i know, i can speak for france, so i refrain from this comment, but i can say that definitely china will probably try to... explain its vision and its position regarding the russian conflict, probably china will also assure france that it does not help russia. but tell me, the limon publication, for example, before sidzempi’s visit wrote that in yelytsey the palace does want to express to the chinese leader their concerns about the activities of certain chinese companies that could contribute to russia's military effort. by and large, this statement of the police palace is very... similar to the statement of the united states secretary of state anthony blinken, who, during his stay in beijing,

said that if china does not take measures to limit the activities of these companies in relations with russia, it the united states will do, and france will be ready to do something concrete, or will it just be a statement? well, look, here again it is difficult to determine it, because on the one hand there is a problem of this import, which goes through third countries, for example, china can also import, i mean export. er, let ’s say, dual-purpose products to russia through third countries, and this imposes questions, imposes problems, we have seen it, as even some western enterprises, which exported to russia already after the 22nd year, dual-purpose technologies through there are some second-third countries, where in kyrgyzstan, for example, there was an astronomical increase in imports from abroad, for example, there were washing machines or other... from equipment that was then resold to russia, those elements, those chips were used by the russian defense industry, so here the question

is completely different, but of course, france now declares itself as a leader, at least sees itself as a leader in europe, and regarding the ukrainian-russian war also wants to have a leadership position, so of course france will speak, in my opinion, although, again, official confirmation in i am not there, but i think that france will still talk about this topic with china about restrictions or inadmissibility altogether. exports to russia, anything that can be used, again by the russian defense industry, but there is another question, how much china will be interested in this and how much china will listen to it, and in my opinion, france does not play a major role here, and the main role will be played by, for example, the united states of america, because we saw how certain companies refused to export goods to russia when america itself said, what will happen, there will be sanctions against these companies, i would also like to touch on the topic of israel, palestine, iran, in the context of the

same visit of sydney pin to paris. in your opinion, will the issues of the actual war currently going on in israel be discussed, or will it be possible to discuss the issues of iran in the context of the actual aggression it has shown recently. that is, will this, relatively speaking, be one of the key, key topics of this conversation? well, there will definitely be, in general, a geopolitical agenda, it will be mine the main point, not even so much bilateral relations, but the geopolitical agenda, russia's war with ukraine, conflicts in the middle east, the issue of iran, china's position in general, but there will also be economic issues, but again, we remember, for example, that china , let's say, tried... or at least pretended to try to influence iran in some way, so that iran would influence its houthi proxies in yemen,

so that they would not attack the ships, yes the navigation, but we saw that it did not give any result, in principle, unless possible they bite, they don't attack russian ships or chinese ships, but in general this did not lead, let's say, to some solution to the issue, of course, there will be a geopolitical trip, i repeat the main one again, but there will also be an issue of espionage, because even. .. literally, it seems, 10 days ago , the financial times wrote about the detention of a british couple who spied for the benefit of china and a chinese industrialist. fraud, this is, in my opinion, one of the main threats to countries of western europe, which come from china, if separated, of course, from the geopolitical agenda, well, by the way, don't you think that the west does not understand, let's say this, the goals of china, i mean the political goals, as recently did not understand the political goals of russia, it generally seems to me that we have

a problem in the west, it is a problem, let's say , listening to ourselves. we are generally confident that we are right, as was the case with the issues of russia and ukraine, when for years, experts from the countries of central and eastern europe, although they were listened to and communicated with, they were not listened to, while, for example, the information provided by russian experts was taken at face value and then relayed by french experts to the french information space, and this, in my opinion, there is a problem that we think that we know... what is happening better than everyone else regarding the issue of ukraine, the problem is becoming less acute, because it has become clear, and here only, let's say, a mentally not very educated person can say, what we had right, the eastern europeans didn't have it, so there have been changes here, quite global ones, in my opinion, but with regard to china, again,

china is not, let's say, directly threatening militarily, as the russian federation can potentially threaten the european union, therefore , china is certainly perceived as less of a threat, china is perceived as an economic power, as a factor, for example, that can influence various processes in different regions, destabilize or stabilize there, but china as of today does not lead any invading warriors, does not behave like the russian federation, which in 2008 not so long ago seized part of the territory of georgia, seized part of ukraine, now 2022 is waging war, armed aggression against ukraine, russian, let's say, information war, russian cyber operations, russian, active actions, let's say so, led to the fact that france was banally squeezed out of the african continent from its, let's say, traditional areas, where france had

a significant influence, and this all happened literally not so long ago, it's there 5 - 7 years, let's say. you see, that's why there is a perception of russia as a threat, and with regard to china, i think it's more interesting to see in china, for sure, some, let's say, a power that can possibly, again, in some way influence such players as russia, or for example, as for iran, but again we see that china is not eager to influence them, in this situation we can generally assume that... europe is ready for some economic tools, let's say, if china continues to have its way , well, look, again, a very difficult question, if you look, france, as i have already said, seems to be importing, i even have data, i will tell you now, it imports from china boom-boom-boom, it seems 70-plus billions worth

of goods worth 70-plus billions billions of euros, exports significantly less. the question is whether we can reorient ourselves, find some other markets, find some influence, of course, influence not to give access to some companies, as, for example, there was once a story with huawei, where huawei once, back in the 2010s , entered the european market and wanted to implement 5g technology, and then things happened there were issues with espionage, there were issues with influence and in general with, let's say, espionage activities, and there was a decision not to give these companies access. this technology, but again, everything is changing and, for example, we are already hearing some voices that are more inclined to, for example, let china, information technology, so to the west, there are countries that were not concerned about this at all, which is calm for chinese companies such as huawei are doing very well, so again there is a question of economic, let's say

capacity, because every policy, you understand, international foreign policy, it must be based on something, you cannot simply make decisions that cannot be supported by anything, and before making decisions, by the way, in my opinion, in part, it was ukraine's problem in some sense that certain goals were declared, but which were officially very difficult to support, there was no possibility, but it was neither economic nor even political will, but this is another issue, and that's why i see, i see , i see that again this is a very economic issue, it is europe it is diverse, you understand, those relations, for example, the position that it can afford... it is more difficult towards china, france cannot afford it. mr. denys, we thank you for your thoughts, your analysis, denys kolesnyk, a political commentator, was on the... live broadcast of saturday's political club, we are moving on, and we have a whole hour of communication with vitaly portnikov, we will

similarly discuss all the most important of the week, the biggest threats to our country, traditionally everything we do in the second part of this program, mr. vitaly, let us let's go back or come to... an important topic that is currently being discussed by ukrainians, the main intelligence agency, the foreign press, for example, the deputy of the main intelligence agency of the ministry of defense, vadym skibitskyi, stated that at the end of may, at the beginning of june there may be some other offensive of the russian federation on ukraine, in particular, he says that it could be not only... this is the donetsk region, luhansk region, kherson region, and it could be kharkiv region and sumy region. what can we expect from these closest ones

months, they are called so disturbing and difficult for our country. well, first of all, no one knows this, but when i hear all these predictions about what will happen in a month, in two months in the war, i always remind myself, remember to yourself 20. february 3, 2022 that you imagined how it would all turn out , now all the great military experts have come to us, but how did they imagine this war on the 23rd, and how did they imagine this war a month later, when many said: listen, it will last for years, this is a typical conflict like in syria , tune in to many years of war, everyone says, but no, this cannot be, we didn’t have people in sociology at all who thought that it was two years, i’m not talking about... well, we were told about two- three weeks, somewhere i said two or three weeks, but even just we are talking about the usual idea, then remember the idea of ​​ukrainian offensives, when we discussed where

we will be in crimea, in melitopol, now we are starting to talk about the russian offensive, the offensive is generally taking place there, where it is not expected, remember in the liberation of kharkiv oblast, of course there is always a certain position in the army there, where it is clear that it can be displaced from there, because it can be located there on... an inconvenient bridgehead, let's say it was with the russian army in kherson, are there such positions of the ukrainian army or not, what is the ratio of potentials, etc., i don't know i know, but again, it's a huge coincidence of the whole thing, i'd say with that list of circumstances, usually the strength of a military expert is to explain the results of a battle that 's over, not to explain the results of a battle that's going to be, yeah that i don't know what will happen next month. talk about the obvious directions of strikes by russian forces, i would n't do it either, because the russians also understand very well that if we know where they

will strike from, then we are preparing for that, the truth is, it means that they will strike not where we expect them, batting all over the line of scrimmage is also quite difficult, so to say that we are in for a difficult few months there, i think we are in for a difficult few years, why months? there will be russian offensives, we will deter them, there may be our offensives, they will be deterred by the russians, this is a long-term war with all this logic of its own, such a typical long-term conflict, war is positional, it became so in me, it seems, in the fall of 2022, since then it has moved, and again, it's just an ordinary dinner, everything else is talk around. many people said that after six months, if the war does not end, it will pass into a state of opposition, and the parties are unlikely to achieve that

they will be able to regain significant parts of the occupied territory in the ukrainian case, or by occupying large parts of the ukrainian territory in the russian case , so it is so far, it seems, the only problem for some... russian actions, as well as ukrainian ones, is that it is possible to strike some kind of blow, where the front collapses with such force that all the armed forces simply flee, retreat in a disorganized manner, and the enemy there reaches some new frontier, and then negotiations about capitulation already begin, either we or the russians, well, here the russians may not capitulate, they may simply withdraw from our territory in such a situation, but in this... different, when we are talking about the inhabited points, i want to remind you again from 2022 year, from the moment when the russians took kherson,

and then we recaptured kherson. no large settlement was even reoccupied or reconquered, we are talking about the names of some villages, which we generally only hear about for the first time, when the russians can capture them, well, of course, there is an exception here, this is avdivka, it is true, it was a great actually an industrial hub, and so, by the way, the losses... this is really an event in this war, because it was on a fortification that was still old, old, because the russians broke through this fortification and secured a certain tactical advantage precisely with this, this is the price of delaying western aid, specifically, but again , after this tactical advantage, it is also very difficult for the russians to seriously advance anywhere further, we see, again, so what? but

it changes, if we imagine, i mean from the point of view of the course of the war, that russia suddenly, in the worst case scenario, captured some large settlements, say there in the donetsk region, well, it already captured them, exactly as i asked in 2023 , well, we captured melitopol and liberated it from the russians, to what extent is this really being signaled during the entire course of the war? we have a route to crimea, well, now after avdiivka, the russians have a conditional route to konstantinivka, pokrovsk, kramatorsk, slovyansk. well, how much can they benefit, how long does it take? how much could we use then? that is, it is important, you know, that if it was andrii, the war was for specific territories, we knew what we were fighting for, the russians want to restore the territorial integrity of the donetsk region, which they

annexed, and we want it. to de-occupy, the war is for something completely different, the russians want to destroy this state, we want it to remain, well, in such a situation, you have to live in the logic of a long-term conflict, and understand that all these events around specific settlements, they generally mean nothing for the next decade changes, of course, there may be a truce on a certain line of conflict, there may not be, but these are all very conditional things, you see, well... i will remind you that during the vietnam war, even after the parties have already signed a peace agreement, and communist vietnam was capturing all sorts of settlements in southern vietnam, still the nature of the war remained positional until the communists broke through to saigon. during the war in afghanistan, the insurgents from the time when the soviets were in charge , it was 1979, they captured

various cities there, even big ones, they captured some mountain settlements there, it continued for years, until the moment they got the opportunity to enter kabul, that is, all these positional battles, they are of course interesting to contemporaries, but they are not about the course of the war are changing, we just have to ask ourselves the question, the russians are concentrating, which means significant forces to capture large cities, well, we are now saying that kharkiv is under attack, but... there are not enough troops to take the city, again and kharkiv is border city, are there forces to capture kyiv, i don't see such possibilities, that at the moment changes from the point of view of the war, the capture of some settlements in the east, from the point of view of the course of the war itself, nothing special, except that the people remain under occupation, certain economic opportunities

are decreasing, it is true, it is obvious that it should not be allowed, it is obvious that kharkiv must be defended so that even the russians do not think that they can seize it, but simply from the point of view of the global map, odesa, the loss of access to the sea, it is serious, yes, it is strategic, it is a strategic thing, and the russians of course understand that even if they agree that ukraine remains on the political map of the world, that they cannot neutralize it, they should deprive her. exit to the sea, a completely different country can be created in this way from the point of view of economic, political, and military capabilities, but this is not even in the plans at the moment, so we must always discuss these military plans for the coming years, if of course suddenly everything it will not end there with some kind of truce already in six months, a year or a year, it can also be there, let's say this representative of military intelligence says what is inside.