lived who could manage it. the loss of experienced tank crews, in particular due to injuries, led to a reduction in their number. does russia make significant efforts to covertly train personnel? perhaps, since there is no satellite evidence to indicate such an effort. previously, american intelligence effectively monitored activities in russia, but since 2021 similar reports. did not arrive this suggests that they may be conserving their armor until they can muster enough personnel composition to make a breakthrough. in the coming months, they will likely deploy all the assets at their disposal on the front lines. however , the mobilization of a large number of vehicles is associated with certain difficulties, since there is a high risk that ukrainian intelligence can detect and neutralize such a unit. not deployment. thus, their

advancement is not an easy task. the key story is the goals of war, so in order to plan and deploy certain military capabilities. a couple of days ago, in a conversation with me, matthew bryza, ex the director of european and eurasian affairs at the national security council of the united states, said that the russians will advance during this year, and we can wait for a counterattack next year on the 25th. from the armed forces of ukraine. subsequently, this information was confirmed literally in a couple of days by jake sullivan, president joseph biden's adviser on national security. and the russians have already voiced their threats in case of supplying ukraine with f-16s. they somehow compared it even to the prospect of using or using nuclear weapons. that is, this story is much more serious for them, and they are afraid of it. what difference does it make, which, whose? the plan: the priority was and remains

the ukrainian plan. it is not about london, berlin or anyone else, it is about ukraine. i don't see anyone going to use nukes because of the f-16. russia didn't use nukes when tanks came out and didn't use them when atakams or hymars or anything else came out. so i don't see that it will change anything. i also do not think that f-16 will be brought into ukrainian skies. victory, they are definitely important, but not as much as everyone expects, and yet we have to be very careful when we talk about counter-attacking, in order to counter-attack effectively, you have to have a surplus of resources, that means you have to have more resources than the enemy, and that you must have trained people, and we still haven't reached the point where we can say that ukrainian fighters have received the proper training for a counterattack, so in order to have enough... people for

a counteroffensive in 2025, we should mobilize and recruit them now, but at the moment almost all of the mobilized are going straight to the front because the front line is thin, so if we want to launch a counter-offensive it will have to be a very different state of affairs from what we have now. 2025 is still a long way off, we have to survive 2024 first , but i don't see a nuclear... threat. there is no such coordinated plan in the event of the use of nuclear weapons. it is obvious that there are action plans in the event of a russian attack on a nato country. these plans are being implemented, and now, for example, in the baltic countries and finland undergoing intensive training to be ready in case russia continues to advance. i do not take putin's threats lightly, especially considering that they are... preparing to conduct exercises

of non-strategic tactical nuclear weapons, and the so-called southern russian military district will be in charge of that. the southern military district is actively involved in aggression against ukraine. we hear a lot of different optimistic scenarios, about how, i don't know, the mausoleum will light up in response. mr. colonel, you have the floor. like i said, i don't i think putin will use nuclear weapons because i think it would be un... smart: he doesn't have trained troops to deal with the consequences, so it would create as much, if not more, problems for him than for ukraine parties the first thing that will happen in response is a massive counterattack by air forces along the russian front line, because in this case it makes no sense to knock out the west with a wedge-wedge, it has a lot of ground and air capabilities to react. so, such things are practiced. and they know what to do. in

in this regard, i believe that we pay too much attention to putin's rhetoric. a lot has happened since our last conversation . events macron said he would be ready to deploy ground troops under certain circumstances. it is not clear what the circumstances are, but at least he made such a commitment. in addition, poland will probably agree to such actions. great britain has stated that it will be with ukraine as long as necessary, offering contractual obligations, financial assistance and support. president of lithuania announced plans to deploy military personnel to u for training support, significant positive steps on the western front. i think we should spend more time on the coherence of the west's response and less time on what putin says. because putin often talks nonsense when pressured.

now he is clearly under pressure, despite his mobilization and increase in personnel. he is clearly concerned. how seriously and to the end will the president of france, the british king, i don't know, president biden, is it possible his successor, to go to the end together with ukraine. this brings us back to what i already mentioned, the situation boils down to two potential factors: one, if... if there is a significant russian breakthrough, then all the european capitals will face difficult questions, but there is no fixed solution on this yet , and this is obvious because some countries, such as italy, show weakness in this matter because they do not feel directly threatened. so,

the first factor, if there is a big breakthrough in russia. the second factor is whether it will happen russia's attack on nato. now in zmi divorce. the services of many european countries suggest that russia is planning a powerful hybrid attack on a european capital, rather than a march into europe, and this may be a separate issue, since article five has always been about responding to ground invasions. however, putin appears to be focusing more on other tactics, such as missiles, communications disruptions, intense cyber warfare, and anything that can undermine the ability of... countries to support ukraine. this has not yet resulted in the application of article five, or even article four for negotiations. therefore, we are not sure how strong the collective european responsibility will be if the war turns in favor of russia. and yet i am sure that

they will reach a common denominator in this regard, because poland, germany, france and great britain are afraid that the situation will worsen and affect them. there are no concrete plans or solutions at this time, there is an acknowledgment that we may have to take more serious action. however, i believe that there is not only recognition, but also readiness for such actions. recently, the president the united states has signed macroeconomic aid for ukraine, more than 61 billion dollars, the amount is huge. on the other hand, we are also aware that the russians are also throwing huge amounts into their defense industry. money, well , actually, if you try to compare the proportions, it's not about money, but about specific military equipment. i don't think the russian side manages to even out any proportions, they can only keep doing what they are doing now, so for now we just have to assume that whatever

if russia succeeds, it will be something close to what they are doing now, because in order to implement something radically different and complex. it is necessary to have completely different training and equipment systems, so russia will continue to act in its spirit and pace, especially if new sanctions from the european union and the united states will really increase the pressure on iran, north korea and all those countries that support russia. the list of these countries includes switzerland, austria and china. so i think we're going to see a change in the coming months, huh the increase itself. pressure to try to reduce and stop russia's ability to do anything different from what it is doing now on the territory of ukraine. personally , i would really like to see a lot more focus on supporting soldiers on the front lines because we are still losing

too many because they are not properly equipped. i constantly communicate with people at the front who simply have no one and nothing to fight for. in my opinion... we spend too much time constantly focusing on one big thing. how much we talked about tanks, how much do we talk about f-16 fighters, how much money did we spend? it is not clear that let's not forget about the construction of ships for ukraine in turkey, it turns out that we wasted time and money, although in fact, if we immediately started to manufacture grenades, grenade launchers, mortars, mortar ammunition, that is, basic things, we would not be where we are now because russia wouldn't be able to break through the defense lines, the ukrainian soldiers would have something to stop them, so while we're worrying about f-16s and other big... things, i'd like 3-4 months of energy aimed at providing the front

with ammunition and weapons necessary to hold positions, fight and at the same time preserve the lives of soldiers, because without good soldiers there will be no successful counter-offensive, professionally trained soldiers are worth their weight in gold, they form the engine that will succeed break through the enemy's defense, do it with those who lack height. even more analytics, even more important topics, even more top guests, foreign experts,

inclusion from abroad, about ukraine, the world, the front, society, and also feedback, you can express your opinion on the evil of the day with a phone survey, turn on and turn on, the verdict with serhiy rudenko, every weekday from 20 to 22 on espresso. the tv channel is now on the air. will work mark fegin, a figure of the russian opposition in exile, a former member of the state duma, a well-known video blogger, glory to ukraine, mark, congratulations, glory to the heroes, happy to welcome all the viewers, well, nothing particularly strange happened, putin crowned himself and made several extremely powerful throws, we don't have anything positive there felt, but this means that the line for war will most likely continue, so putin is in power, his politburo is in power, well, i'll throw it out. a man from the cage, but, but, but, mark would ask you now to analyze the most important, most dangerous

messages from putin. first of all, it should be noted that there are three new factors in connection with this inauguration. protocol-wise, there was nothing special there, everything was the same, a set of words, slogans, etc. but from the point of view of the political situation there is a peculiarity. first, this inauguration took place during the war. that is, putin took part in similar events. his power, but still not against the background of a full-scale war in eastern europe. it makes a mark. in his speech, he again spoke about the heroes of the svo, about respect for their military work, etc. and secondly, in 2020, he extended his mandate in a fake referendum. and this is the first time when he simply resets the previous term, changing the constitution to suit himself. we saw this with lukashenka and in other places. maduro is late in his time. did this in venezuela, for putin it is also an important step, it is a transition to

of the totalitarian system finally, and according to the personalist type, and such an inauguration means the final attempts to stop decorating their dictatorship. they used to invent something, now nobody invents anything, everything is too frank, and the 87.5% that he entered for himself is an indicator of the same thing, and probably the third, look, this is the first such inauguration. to it and to the march 17 elections of representatives of western countries. the representatives of the french embassy were among the most important ones present, because they were instructed to do this, not because they wanted it, but they were there on behalf of the eu are present among some additional features , the fourth important point is the prayer service. to the kingdom, the orthodox leader promov kirill. of course, they are employees of one of the institutions. immediately after the inauguration

, there was also no solemn prayer, somehow it was separate, there was a special protocol shooting, kirill addresses putin with two metropolitans and says that for the first time an orthodox person himself and so on, in fact, starts the transformation of the totalitarian system to dynastic, in my opinion, dynastic - it means that power... becomes unchanged according to another principle, then you have to invent something, here they already come close to justifying why putin and his family, or those who belong to his closest circle, sano... that i was surprised that he did not hold this their own self-crowning on may 9, but there was nothing strange, that is , they would have taken and combined, you understand, the prayer on may 9, the shoiga on camels and the spirit of ungern

sternberg over red square, let's say, i think, howl these measures to increase attention, and then everything was spent in one day and that's it. may 9th probably, there will also be some throne speech by putin, as the inaugurated first official. now they are wary of making immortal regiments, parades, suddenly a drone will fly, but apparently it is ideologically beneficial for them to disperse these events in order to raise his status as a military leader, as the leader of a country that is waging an aggressive war against ukraine, with solemn events on may 9. etc., that is, the task is broader here, so they did not combine, so as not to simplify the situation, to diversify a little. today , this is a full-fledged ideological institute the system has only the russian orthodox church, in united russia, what is the ideology there, steal and run, and the russian orthodox church is, after all, an ideological institute. let's start with the fact that i

generally believe that religion and ideology are one and the same. they say that god exists, this is already an ideology. the catechism is some kind of orthodox, dogmas, a sufficient set for ideology, the roc justifies putin’s power much more than united russia, the ruling party, what can it justify, there is only bureaucracy, what they can invent, and the roc says, we and the new ideology, according to which the current government has direct input to god, it is a direct reflection of him, the orthodox kingdom, the russian world, the whole set that we hear from time to time, but it cannot be composed in any way. into a single puzzle, and this inauguration, if it has any significance, is not so much protocol as ideological. war and the immutability of this power in a totalitarian system become the main tools, guides of this ideology. war increases, that is, we protect the homeland, although we see the quality of these defenders. if you have criminals returning from the svo zone,

raping boys. recent events, somehow catastrophic relapse rate among people taking. participation in the svo, but ideology can ignore it, completely close its eyes, because only putin needs a high justification, the rest is slag, from this point of view , taking into account all this, the war and the first term, when he changed the constitution for himself, both the prayer hall and the rest are indicators of some kind of renewal that is leading the country to the abyss, even more, but for putin it creates an ideological cushion that he really needed. well mark, look. there is another very important point characteristic, that is, of all the tools or institutions of putin's legitimization, he still has what, strategic nuclear weapons and tactical nuclear weapons, and here they decided to conduct certain exercises, so it is about the southern military district of the russian federation, the district that is directly involved in the war against ukraine, but if we talk, for example,

about the broader palette that you talked about, then the russian orthodox church, putin, so to speak. anointing is the future, well, we understand that they have to complete the picture, that is to return to the concept of the so-called great national wars, the great patriotic war against napoleon in 1812, and then, of course, we move on to stalin, who, let me remind you, in the 41st year, so to speak, addressed the soviet citizens with a call to brothers and sisters, well, accordingly, i i'm waiting for everything, maybe not... this week, maybe in a month. in general , yes, regarding nuclear weapons, it is definitely a cornerstone of the ideology. nuclear weapons, possession of them, these six hundred warheads, become the main tool of russia's foreign policy, because they exploit this nuclear rhetoric, constantly threatening, conducting training in the western district, involving

lukashenka in this, this is the main threat to the west, but it is also ideological. threat. we will get our way using the nuclear theme. to what extent they are ready to use nuclear weapons is an open question for now, because it is a one-way street. after using nuclear weapons, there is no turning back, and it will have the opposite effect, but they use this nuclear rhetoric for intimidation. first of all, the event. there is no point in intimidating ukrainians, they are not afraid. but here summoned the british and french ambassadors because of their statement. that the means supplied to ukraine, in particular missiles, can be used for any purpose for shelling the territory of russia or not, it is up to ukraine, not france. great britain, they are absolving themselves of responsibility, they are supplying weapons, and now the weapons are ukrainian, not french and not british, because it is stupid, it would remain so if they carried out strikes

with scalp or storm shadow, the french and the british themselves, but not this one happening, it is done by ukraine, what difference does it make, what do they use? moscow uses iranian shaheds, so what? therefore, the meaning is that this is essentially an attempt to influence the position of these countries. taking into account what france constantly says, in the person of president macron, starting from february 26, that the french military contingent can be sent to the territory of ukraine, provided that there is a front breakthrough, or if zelensky asks for it. the zelenskyi government will request and invite these contingents to kyiv. maybe it will be the french foreign legion or something some. i don't know exactly how this is handled in the respective jurisdictions, in the respective european countries. they may appear on the territory of warring ukraine. so this is an attempt to use nuclear threats and blackmail to make france and london abandon these plans. so far, this does not show a determination

to use these nuclear weapons, but zakharova's statement that the response will be blows if great britain does not refuse the supply of weapons and does not cancel the position on lifting restrictions on the use of these missiles. in particular, about strikes on the territory of russia, as she said. nuclear exercises that moscow is going to conduct and the possibility of using nuclear weapons. of course, this is an attempt at blackmail, an attempt to take a punt. so far it is. what will this lead to? we'll see, but i definitely know the recipe for how to react. if they show weakness, if they show the west that they can roll back on... in their initiatives, then the kremlin will go further, they will not stop, will go further on the offensive, from the point of view of political and other offensives on europe, increasing and

increasing demands. but if they say, and we will also conduct nuclear exercises, consider the issue of placing nuclear weapons, tactical, other on the territory of romania, poland, which, by the way, poland is asking for, and romania is asking for, this is where moscow will hit the brakes and play back , will say, so what? yes, we are not in this sense, we are not going to go to nuclear war. with regard to the national war and quasi-patriotic rhetoric, which the kremlin can use to prolong the situation with the war, which has already been going on for 2.5 years, it is necessary and to somehow explain to the people why we are fighting, we are fighting, there is no end in sight, and now after ukraine has received aid approved by the us congress. 61 billion is not much, but it is something, not nothing. affects the continuation of the war, at least until november, and how will the american elections end, they may end in such a way that it will not give ukraine the opportunity to receive additional aid, new

aid, etc., and therefore the rhetoric of the homeland war and the like, we know how it was exploited nevertheless, stalin, brothers and sisters, he actually created the russian orthodox church anew from serhii stargorodskyi, this is a well-known story, the stalinist church that still operates today, it is stalinist, he has his own... plans are so complete, they were drawn up in the headquarters, so yes, they will work out some kind of concept, because putin in his inaugural speech said to achieve all goals, and still no one knows what your goals are, we know these goals: to destroy ukraine, end its sovereignty and turn it into its constituent part, and other goals... we do not see any, they are clear, but he cannot express it in this form . and why, mark, well he could simply say, we will

fight to the point of destruction, so to speak, how they started aggression against ukraine in general, well , it is about a full-scale invasion, you understand, denazification and so on, well, in putin's version we know all this, well, that's it stalin's versions, but of course he may come to what he says. the territory is completely the territory of russia, we occupy it because it is historical justice, he also says so from time to time, but then, if we enter from such a premise, he will drive the west into a dead end, and that is what i want, it is mine land, if the west accepts this, the entire international security system will collapse, it will cease to exist even nominally, it is barely holding on anyway, but if someone can say , i am claiming because it is ours... and this is after the recognition in 1991 of the borders of ukraine and other than that, how is it? you also recognized them as bialowieza agreements, then there was the almaty

declaration. now it was remembered in time, the almaty declaration was catching up, when the cis was created, and all countries, including russia, recognized ukraine within its borders, the agreement itself signed that yes, we recognize ukraine precisely within its borders with crimea and the rest, then why do we need an international security system, who needs all these agreements, the un and the like, if putin decides that the right of force is higher than international right, then the west or gets involved in the war with... defends not just ukraine, but the values ​​of international security, its principles, norms of international law, or swallows it, and russia immediately has claims on the baltic countries, it will also say russian territories, on poland, it will also say , that these are historical lands, crowns of russia empires, we restore them and so on, because if this principle is implemented once, then it will always work, that's all, look, we didn't mention an extremely important point, or rather,

it's missing. one extremely important character, well sijin ping, he worked very technically, that is, he drew for himself an extremely important in his opinion, and i think not only in his opinion, a visit to the european continent, and he did not come to putin either for the inauguration or the parade may 9, but xi jinping talked to macron, so it is a certain demarche, i think he made it clear to putin that, so to speak, all the signals he could actually send. i think china's position, although not noticeably, although not quickly, is adjusting a little. i won't say that it is changing, moscow remains an ally, but it is changing in the sense that beijing seeks to remove responsibility for what moscow does, remove it as much as possible, because when you are its ally, you see the difference between iran and beijing, they both in a certain sense of the word are allies of moscow, but also...

iran is a military ally and definitely carries responsibility for moscow's actions in ukraine, because ukrainians are being killed with their weapons. moreover, it is not the same thing that supplies london and paris, because moscow is embargoed as an aggressor country. sorry, there are no restrictions on the supply of arms to ukraine yet, none, because it is a victim country that defends itself under international law. beijing actually makes a choice in foreign policy, not to mention domestic. 2023 and the beijing declaration regarding the settlement, which of the 12 points, yes , the first point there was compliance international law and recognition of the internationally recognized sovereignty and borders of ukraine. it seems to me that this is how the process of beijing's rapprochement with europe began, which is why

macron's visit to beijing went brilliantly at first. if he wins the elections in november, then in europe, which also expects eccentric actions from trump, in relation to nato, in relation to us obligations, in relation to europe, they are trying to look for alternative allies, to play on the balance. all of europe is represented by france, because france is the foreign policy department of the entire european union, it is responsible. by politics, and germany for the economy in the eu. this has traditionally always been the case, especially when great britain left the eu, and this role in the eu is played by paris, and today, of course, they are trying to agree on strategies, economic, investment, geopolitical with beijing, but in an important language from the european side, france, in particular, in relation to beijing, has an influence on moscow, europe in the eastern part, which is stolen by war, an unacceptable

situation for the economy, for beijing, not europe. and i think beijing heard this signal. see for yourself: beijing after blinken's visit, despite the fact that the visit was generally cool, and the state department publicly stated that sanctions against moscow should be followed. join the sanctions against beijing both legally and de facto, in fact something has already begun to be realized. for example, russian companies, which felt free to make transactions through chinese financial institutions, are now deprived of these opportunities, or very seriously limited, and these are gray schemes for the supply of military products and dual purpose, i.e. beijing slowly, perhaps reluctantly, losing financially, but agrees to limit moscow.