that we are ending this era of not solving the conflict between the palestinians and us, and i'm not talking about what should be given or not given and so on, first of all, we must say that we are ready to solve it, and the problem is that we are nobody, not a single government was ready to solve it, we all agreed that it somehow happened by itself, well, we will figure it out and we will, or... for 25 years , the main development vector and pattern was conflict management, nobody said that the conflict must be resolved, everyone agreed that the conflict can be managed, and this is for us, and this and this are good for us, because all our enemies will fight with each other, and for the time being we will make money from high technologies, supposedly live in a normal world, and... october 7th completely proved that so-and-so

the pattern does not work, it is ineffective, whether another pattern has been prepared, i do not see it, we need to decide now as a society, which one we decide, and this is quite such a problematic and painful process. i understand that the idea of ​​conflict management was and is the main political idea of ​​the prime ministers netanyahu, he believed that he could manage this conflict, not even between israel and the palestinian authority. and between the gas sector and the west bank of the jordan river, between the fathi group, the hamas group, that israel will be the conductor here, it turned out that someone else is holding this baton? indeed, yes, and yes, the same relationship was with syria, that we can support jubat nasr there and not support others, that we can receive them and the wounded and thus allegedly influence the fact that someone there in the syrian society, which almost did not remain after that 11 million citizens simply left

their side in lebanon and now they live in europe, so this pattern was not only his, but if it was his , it was also the case with other leaders and heads of the security forces. they took this, they took this, this point of view, because it's not bad, so if you're confident that you can manage the conflict, you can make the army smaller, you can spend less on security, not much, but still less, in general you can stop fighting, you can talk about what we will have small a smart army and so on and so

on, but only now it is clear that the army had to be not only smart, but also large enough to be able to fight on some fronts. and by the way, is it possible that the war is on other fronts? do you allow this? views are not, but the only front, real, serious, which we have, is the northern, lebanese, not syrian, then for sure, if there are any intentions there. mm, it is difficult to call it an offensive, they will try to carry out some terrorist operations there, but izbala, are we ready to meet, the army is ready, the army is ready to meet, but for that it needs now all its capabilities and all its resources, today almost the air force can concentrate in the southern plain and in general there

these ... as for the land assault, that’s all for now, it’s really not possible, and it’s no secret, we are busy with issues of rafah, and when it ends there, then we will surely see that all the land forces will be redeployed to the northern border and then, for sure, there will be trouble sent an ultimatum that they have, i don't know, 48 hours or 22 hours. in order for them to still implement this un resolution, and i think they will implement it, and the solution will be diplomatic, and so far it looks like, it looks like when it will be, well, probably somewhere in the beginning, maybe at the beginning strongly, why, i am based on the fact that our government representatives said that from september 1st they want, plan to uh... to start

the school year in the north, and everyone will already live in their homes, so uh.. . to persuade e-e hezbollah by military means e-e for the month that will remain after that, if we are talking about today, in order to destroy the four battalions in rafah, it is at least one and a half or two months, this is really the beginning of the earth, we will talk about the beginning of august, this time is not enough, that is here's whether we'll see military action in the north in september. will our government still stick to its plan, at this stage, and considering the historical possibilities and such personalities and others, a diplomatic solution with

very aggressive rhetoric looks like a similar vector of development. thank you, mr. aria. aria zayden, reserve lieutenant colonel of the defense army. in israel, a political scientist, was in touch with us, now let's return to ukrainian topics, we will talk with oleksiy haran, professor of political science at the kyiv-mohyla academy, scientific director of the ilko kucheriv foundation for democratic initiatives. congratulations, mr. oleksiy. i congratulate you. well, military sociology - it is always important to observe how the mood of society changes, how society and social trends change. what you see now is the most important thing in these changes? hmm you understand, we are talking about changes, yes, but at the same time, some numbers are quite stable enough, yes, for example, the ukrainians' faith in victory, yes, or our sense of general national unity, which has grown, that is, these numbers

are stable, by the way, as for mobilization, the number of those who are ready to mobilize is approximately the same as the number of those who were ready to mobilize before the start of the great war, well, i think, we will talk about it, and the custom, by the way, has increased the number of people who advocate democracy, it's more than it was before the war, democracy versus authoritarianism, ah, but at the same time, i think if we're talking now about these changes that are happening, we certainly had a period of euphoria that was at the beginning of 2023, and we hoped for the quick liberation of the occupied territories, this did not happen on land, because we had

a successful counteroffensive at sea, and this should be emphasized, and there was a gradual development and trust in... in the institution of the president, which is still high, by the way, 58%, this is according to the march survey, the march survey, but it fell, and the peak again peaked in march of '23, and there was a shift among those who believe the country is moving in the right direction, that is, if to begin with. there were only 20% of such infestations, and 60 thought that it was moving in the wrong direction, then again in march of the 23rd year it changed in a mirror, 60 thought that it was moving in

the right direction, and then this figure began to gradually - gradually decrease, and the end of march. it is approximately 40 by 40, well, there are 39-38, let's say, 40 by 40, that is, 40% believe that in in the right direction and 40 believe that it is in the wrong direction, but note that this figure is still twice as much as it was before the start of the war, so these trends are quite contradictory, by the way, among those ukrainians who believe in victory, there are enough of them stable, it's well... now it showed 83%, in principle, various polls during this time, they showed 80% plus, but among them now we record 26% of ukrainians who believe in pere among those who believe

in victory, who will be considered a victory even, how to say it, probably even freezing of the conflict and... when russia will have something left from the occupied territories, be it crimea, or donbass, or even other regions, that is, for this part. ukrainians, it will still be a victory, that's why it's a change in the mood, can you say that it's a change, please, can you say that it's a change? well, yeah, i think, yeah, yeah, so the numbers used to be smaller, and basically, it's no surprise that they started, that they started to increase, because, well , the dynamics changed, the dynamics changed, the dynamics at the front, and... well obviously, people began to understand that this war will be long-lasting, and

again, there's been, there's been a shift from inflated expectations to frustration, and so that 's affected those numbers, anyway, i think the numbers are enough, they're optimistic enough, well, look, let's even talk about mobilization, because i'm very, i think that this is such a painful topic, and... here is our survey, it showed, by the way, we conducted it together with the sociological service of the rozumkov center, it is the end of march, and this survey showed that the total number of those who ready to go to the front 19%, i.e. these are those who is already in the defense service and you, who are ready to leave, 19%, this is a lot, this is a big number, another 35% are ready to... to help the army, donate, volunteer, collect drones, donate blood and

so on, another 35 , and about 29% of them say, well, our house is from the country, that is, we would have to, in order to survive, so we will think first of all about ourselves, well, there are such people during any wars and in any countries, there is such a category of people, but i think that... 19% is a high percentage, so before the war, it was 22.5%, that is , it fell somewhat, but not significantly, and then it appears the question is, if we have such a large number of people who are ready for mobilization or are already at the front, then why are there problems with mobilization, here i think maybe. well, we do not avoid pressing issues. i think that it

is related, significantly, for this there are objective reasons, yes. objective reasons, i already said, yes. that is, this is the continuation of the war, this is the understanding that it will drag on, this is the death of loved ones and suffering, this includes, let's say, that people did not start not to believe in social. bility regarding mobilization, these are some scandals, scandals within the authorities, which reduce trust in it, but i would also add a communication strategy, i think that this communication strategy is late, it is miscalculated, that is, everything must be done when... when, a high level of trust, it is not yet begins to fall, and we are here,

we are wasting time here, that is, again, if the reformation of the mobilization process had to start, it should have started earlier, well , this is how i would explain it, well, it is the same, by the way, as this is the production on registration of ukrainians abroad , yes. well, i know that you are a lot discussed in this studio, again, there is nothing wrong with the fact that a ukrainian who is on the consular register, he must, he must join this military cabinet, or how he is personal or what his name is, but we need to clarify , how it is done, what are the consequences, well, this was not done, clarifications came later. again clarifying that even people who do not do this, they still receive consular

assistance, if there is some, some force majeure, we also have to call a spade a spade, after all, the main idea was that people would start returning to ukraine, conscripts, and this was the idea not of providing consular services, but when it became obvious that this measure would not lead to what... those who spoke about it were taken into account, then such, i would say, explanations of why this is being done, because we want people to become, the explanations happened quite quickly, i think within a week, you... 10 days these clarifications arrived, and i think it was naive to hope that people they will go immediately, they will go to mobilize in ukraine, due to the fact that they are not there, will not be provided with, or rather, will not provide consular services, that is, once again

communication, this communication, it goes, it goes... with problems, and this one of how in my opinion, this is one of the explanations, well , again, let's remember a bunch of cases, including, probably, in everyone's environment, yes, when we know, there are people who went to the tax office and said that we we want us to have a military specialty, there are military pensioners who are young enough, because they go out earlier pension, they were ready, they were told, wait, since then it was, since then it was just what had to be done, yes. that's all, but they said, wait, during this time there was some, well, what we were talking about, a fall to the fall of trust, which was objective, again, i don't think that this is a catastrophic fall to the power, thank god , yes, but it is there, and of course, now it complicates this recruitment, maybe it’s

not a matter of a drop in trust, but people’s awareness that it... will continue for six months and not eight, but 10 years and no one will demobilize you , if you join the armed forces. in people could have completely different expectations, they could think that they are going to fight for 3-6-9 months, now that even this mobilization law has not regulated the main demobilization, and people have a certain mistrust about it, i don't know is it reflected in sociology, then it could become a driving force, well, look, 19% is a figure... at the end of march, so i think that at that time people already understood, understood that the war was dragging on, by the way, with this 19%, now i will say how much, in my opinion, but hey, wait, now one second, i will give the exact the exact number, ah, yes, a second, yeah, of that

19%, nine say we'll join the... defense forces if the hostilities come close to where they live, and it's actually too late, so we we understand that training is needed, but even if we take people for those, for the specialty they have, a peaceful specialty, and we will simply use it at the front, but let's talk, i'm still not an expert , let's say in these in these... cases, yes, maybe we will talk about something else about populism, about, by the way, i think that populism is also the driving force of the attitude towards such processes, or not? in people's minds, it is a search for simple answers to complex questions, but how inclined are ukrainians to this today? well

, look, we asked a question, let's say to feel it, we asked... a question about who is more trusted, the people as a whole, or the average citizens who are supposed to lead our ukraine, yes, our country, whether representatives of the rulers, or professionals, yes, and experts, who should be listened to more, the people who are always right in quotation marks, yes, or after all, about... professionals and experts, well , you understand what the answer was here, that is, it is absolutely mostly said that the representatives of the people, the people know everything, well, we understand that the word elite is discredited in our country, the word politician is also discredited in our country due to both objective reasons and, well, the fact that in

what is happening now, well, such a process, i would say, myself... everything has disappeared under the name of discredit, by the way, i will now say a kremlin, kremlin opinion, maybe someday i will write a provocative post on this topic about the fact that it is not the only thing that bothers me now marathon, everything is clear with a single marathon, trust in it is falling, but people do not perceive it as the first source of information, and what people perceive as not the first source of information, this is according to our survey, it is telegram and youtube. we understand how much unverified information there is, how many fakes there are, how many manipulations there are, and to be honest, what is happening in our social media for... it starts to remind me, well, the situation on the eve, on the eve of the 2019 elections,

that's how it is to me begins to remind, that is , a single marathon is not good, i don't do it defend it, i support it, well, the principles on which it is built, i condemn it, and ukrainians show that trust in it is really constantly falling, but what is happening on the other side, well... in my opinion, it really constitutes , poses a threat to the country, well, i might come back here, since we started talking about populism, that is, the people are wise, professionals, experts are not wise, but what is interesting is when we ask the question of what and how you want, do you want an average citizen to represent you in politics? a professional politician and... here the dynamic is changing, it was like this, and now it has become approximately, approximately equal, that is, when you ask people abstractly, who

is more right-wing, so to speak, who are better, well, it is clear that the people, the average citizens and so on and so on, when you ask more specifically, who, ah, should represent you, make decisions for you, then... the parliament itself, people, people begin to think, they scratch the back of their heads and will think well, i'm sorry, i'm sorry that you're not, not a doctor, because what you're telling to a certain extent a schizophrenic session, and not a political one, but look, you say that on the one hand people believe that everyone should lead by custom, that the people are much more intelligent than some professional politicians, people go to the elections... priests , they elect not a professional politician as president, but an ordinary person from the people, they elect as deputies ordinary people from the people who have nothing to do with politics,

have never been involved in it and were not even interested in it, these future deputies are gathered in some rest house in truskavets , just to explain to them what politics is and what laws are, these are ordinary people who voted for them, these are the people who, relatively speaking, bring them there like me... clean towels or breakfast food, these are the same people , who sit in the parliament, are no different, nothing at all, the same people, simple, then the same people who elected the same people as themselves, one wonders, maybe we need some professional people to represent us, with on the other hand, these same people say, why should we go to fight when children are not fighting deputies, but these deputies... these are the same people as you, they just came from the same office as you left, you just voted for them, these are ordinary people that you put in the parliament , what claims

and it amazes me, you see, and i don't know what to do about it, i'm not sure it can be cured at all, well you see, i apologize for such a long question, no, a little experience heals, heals, yes, that is, some certain changes are taking place, ah, well, i would... say that it is not schizophrenia, sociologists have a term for it, well, maybe maybe journalists can say schizophrenia, sociologists have the term ambivalence, ambivalence, fine, er, but here i would like to say, by the way, about your mention of social justice, i think that this is just one of the criteria , why, let's say, there is no trust, properly. confidence in the mobilization carried out by the authorities, you say this absolutely rightly, well , the experience of israel is often discussed in your program, well, there

the children of ministers are fighting, yes, they are fighting, they are fighting, of course, yes, and everyone knows about it, and if there there is not even a question why, i think that if we have such cases, i do not think that there are many of them, but it is necessary to talk about it and it is necessary to really do it. so, well, if not the children of these young deputies, but at least the relatives around, so that they were really mobilized too, were at the front, and that we knew about it, and then it would prove that we have, that in we have social justice, and you don't just take those who are easier to take, there from the village or from the workers, and it's really... a feeling of social injustice, as well as people, well, you them, there were now explanations, well, this is also a painful topic, there were now explanations from the military that in the conditions when the russians

are advancing it is very... difficult to carry out at least partial demobilization, but it should be done so that people can at least go home, recover their strength, see their relatives and so on, that is, some things, some things must be done and they will increase trust in the authorities, but again, here i went into the topic where, well, i'm not an expert on mobilization, it's just an outside opinion, so to speak. thoughts in voice, thank you, thank you, which i do on the basis of our surveys, thank you, oleksii garen, professor of political science at the kiel academy, scientific director of the lik kucharev foundation for democratic initiatives, was on the air. bulky saws,

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this project. week and actually who will be the guest of the studio, we will find out already this sunday, clearly, the topics will be relevant, the guests will be special, their own names with myroslava barchuk, sunday 17:10 at espresso. we continue the politclub program on stresa tv channel, our guest is anatoliy hrabchynskyi, deputy general director of the campaign, which engaged in. revom, an aviation expert, so let's talk about what can be done with the ukrainian military-industrial complex, this is an important topic, i think, because we understand that without our weapons we will not be able to do much, we hear from the allies all the time , here you can shoot, here you ca n't shoot, here you can, here if we had our own weapons, we wouldn't ask, well actually yes, if we're talking about our own capabilities, then here we don't need to ask anyone for permission.