want to launch a counteroffensive, we must be talking about a very different state of affairs from the one we have now. 2025 is still a long way off, we have to survive 2024 first, but i don't see a nuclear threat. there is no such coordinated plan in the event of the use of nuclear weapons. it is obvious that there are action plans in the event of a russian attack on a nato country. these plans are being implemented. and now, for example, the baltic countries and finland are conducting intensive training to be ready in case russia continues to advance. i do not treat putin's threats lightly, in particular, taking into account the fact that they are preparing to conduct exercises of non-strategic, tactical nuclear weapons, and the so- called southern russian military district will be in charge of that. the southern military district is actively involved in aggression against ukraine. we hear very...

many different optimistic scenarios, about how, i don't know, the mausoleum will be set on fire in response. mr. colonel, you have the floor. as i said, i don't think putin will use nuclear weapons, because i think that would be unwise. he has no trained troops to oppose him consequences, so it would create as many, if not more, problems for him than for the ukrainian side. the first thing that will happen in response is massive. a counterattack by air forces along the russian front line, because in this case it makes no sense to drive the west out with a wedge, it has a lot of ground and air capabilities to react, so such things are practiced, and they know what to do. in this regard, i believe that we pay too much attention to putin's rhetoric. a few things have happened since we last spoke quite important events. macron said

he would be ready to deploy ground troops under certain circumstances. it is not clear what the circumstances are, but at least he made such a commitment. in addition, poland will probably agree to such actions. great britain has stated that it will be with ukraine as long as necessary, offering contractual obligations, financial assistance and support. the president of lithuania announced plans to deploy military personnel to ukraine for training support. these are significant positive steps on the western front. i think we are should spend more time on the coherence of the west's response and less time on what putin says. because putin often talks nonsense when pressured. now he is clearly under pressure, despite his mobilization and increase in personnel. he's clearly concerned about the situation, and i'm sure

we'll see more signs of internal problems within russia in... the coming months. how seriously and to the end will the president of france, the british king, i do not know, president biden, whether it is possible for his successor to go to end together with ukraine. this brings us back to what i mentioned earlier. the situation boils down to two potential factors. the first, if there is a significant russian breakthrough. then all european capitals will face difficult questions, but there is no fixed solution on this matter yet, and this is obvious because some countries, such as italy, show weakness in this matter, because they do not feel a direct threat. so, the first factor is if there will be a major russian breakthrough, the second factor is whether there will be a russian attack on nato. currently, the intelligence services of many european countries are in zmi. it is suggested that russia

is planning a powerful hybrid attack on a european capital, rather than a march into europe, and this may be a separate issue, since article five has always been about responding to ground invasions, however, putin seems to be focusing more on other tactics such as such as missiles, disruption of communications, intense cyber warfare and anything that could undermine the ability of european countries to support ukraine. this has not yet led to the application of article five or even article four for negotiations, so we are not sure how strong the collective european responsibility will be if the war turns in favor of russia, and yet i am sure that a common denominator will be reached in this regard, because poland, germany, france and great britain will fear that the situation will worsen and affect them. currently there is none. concrete plans

or decisions, there is a recognition that we may have to resort to more serious action. however, i believe that there is not only recognition, but also readiness for such actions. recently, the president of the united states signed macroeconomic aid for ukraine, more than 61 billion dollars, the amount is huge, on the other hand, we are also aware that the russians also throw a lot of money into their defense industry, well , actually, if we try to compare the proportions now, there is no it is about money, but about specific military equipment. i do not think that the russian side manages to equalize any proportions, they can only continue. do what they do now, therefore now we should just assume that whatever russia succeeds in, it will be something close to what they are doing now, because in order to implement something radically different and complex, it is necessary to have completely different training and equipment systems, so russia

will continue to act in its spirit and pace, especially if new sanctions from the european union and the united states will really increase the pressure on... iran, north korea and all those countries that support russia. the list of these countries includes switzerland, austria and china. so i think that we will see changes in the coming months, namely an increase in sanctions pressure to try to reduce and stop russia's ability to do anything different than what it is doing now on the territory of ukraine. personally , i would really like to see a lot more attention. hold the soldiers on the front lines because we are still losing too many because they are not properly equipped. i constantly communicate with people at the front who simply have no one and nothing to fight for. in my opinion, we spend too much time constantly focusing on

something big how much did we talk about tanks, how much do we talk about f-16 fighter jets, how much money did we spend on unknown what? do not forget. about the construction of ships for ukraine in turkey, it turns out that we wasted time and money, although in fact, if we had immediately started making grenades, grenade launchers, mortars, mortar ammunition, that is, basic things, we would not be where we are now, because russia would not be able to break through the defense lines, ukrainian soldiers would have something to stop it, so for now we are worried about the f-16 and other large things, i would like three or so... months of energy to be directed to supplying the front with the ammunition and weapons necessary to hold positions, to fight, and at the same time to preserve the lives of soldiers, because without good soldiers, a successful counteroffensive will not. professionally trained

soldiers are worth their weight in gold, they are the ones who form the locomotive that will manage to break through the enemy's defenses. it is almost impossible to do this with those who lack education.

greetings, this is svoboda live on radio svoboda. we have already approached the snake itself. the following the footage may shock you. live news from the scene. drone attacks, kamikaze. political analytics. objectively and meaningfully.

there is no political season. exclusive interviews, reports from the hottest points of the front. frankly and unbiased, you draw your own conclusions. the tv channel is currently on the air. mark fegin, a member of the russian opposition in exile, a former member of the state duma, a well-known video blogger. glory to ukraine, mark, congratulations. glory to the heroes, i am happy to welcome all the viewers. well, nothing particularly strange happened putin crowned himself and made several extremely powerful throws. we did not feel anything positive there, but this means that the line for war will most likely continue, right? putin is in power, his politburo is in power, well, they threw it out. a man from the cage, but, but, but, mark would ask you now to analyze the most important,

most dangerous messages from putin. well, first of all it should be noted that there are three new factors in connection with this inauguration. according to the protocol, there was nothing unusual there. all the same, a set of words, slogans, etc. but with the view of the political situation has a peculiarity. first, this inauguration took place during the war. that is, putin participated in similar events, continuing. his power, but still not against the background of a full-scale war in eastern europe. it makes a mark. in his speech, he again spoke about the heroes of the svo, about respect for their military work, etc. and secondly, in 2020, he extended his mandate in a fake referendum. and this is the first time when he simply resets the previous term, changing the constitution to suit himself. we saw this with lukashenka and in other places. maduro, late at one time, is like that. worked in venezuela, this is also an important step for putin, it is the transition to a totalitarian system finally,

and according to the personalist type, and such an inauguration means final attempts to stop decorating his dictatorship. something used to be made up, now no one is making anything up, everything is too frank, and the 87.5% he entered for himself is an indicator of the same. and probably the third, look, this is the first such inauguration. silent non-recognition of his legitimacy determined the attitude towards him and the march 17 elections of western representatives countries representatives of the french embassy were among the most important ones present, because they were instructed to do this, not because they wanted it, but they were there on behalf of the eu. among some additional features, the fourth important point is the prayer service. to the kingdom, the orthodox leader promova kirill. of course, they are employees of one of the institutions with putin. but this is already a sign of some kind of divine anointing, immediately after

the inauguration there was also no solemn prayer service, somehow it was separate, here is a special protocol shooting, kirill turns to putin with two metropolitans, and says that for the first time an orthodox person himself and so on actually starts the transformation of a totalitarian system into a dynastic one, in my opinion, dynastic - this means that the government becomes... unchanged according to another principle , then you have to invent something, here they already come close to justifying why putin and his family, or those who belong to his closest circle, dignitaries, will remain in this power forever, that is , a god-appointed, practically orthodox tsar. the only thing is you know that i was surprised that he did not hold his own self-coronation on may 9, there was nothing strange, that is, they would have taken and... put, you understand, the prayer on may 9, the shoiga on camels and the spirit of ungern

sternberg on red square. they need to double these events to increase attention, otherwise they did it all in one day and that's it. on may 9 , there will probably also be some sort of throne speech by putin, as the inaugurated first official. now they are wary of making immortal regiments, parades, suddenly a drone will fly in, but... apparently, ideologically, it is advantageous for them to dilute these measures in order to raise his status as a military leader, as the head of a country waging an aggressive war against ukraine, etc., with solemn events on may 9, that is , the task here is broader, so they did not combine to do not simplify the situation, diversify a little. today , only the russian orthodox church is a full-fledged ideological institution in this system, in united russia, what is the ideology there? yes, run, and the russian orthodox church is still an ideological institute. let's start with the fact that i

generally believe that religion and ideology are one and the same. they say that god exists, this is already an ideology. catechism is a kind of orthodox, dogmas, a sufficient set for ideology. the roc justifies putin's power much more than united russia, the ruling party. what can she justify? there is only bureaucracy, what they can invent. and the russian orthodox church says that we are novaza's ideology. which current government has a direct entrance to god, it is a direct reflection of him: the orthodox kingdom, the russian world, the whole set that we hear from time to time, but it cannot be put together in any way... a puzzle. and this one the inauguration, if it has any significance, is not so much protocol as ideological. war and the instability of this power in a totalitarian system become the main tools, guides of this ideology. war increases, that is, we protect the motherland. although we can see the quality of these defenders. if you have criminals returning from the svo zone,

raping boys. recent developments, some catastrophic recidivism rates among people participating. in svo, but ideology can ignore this, completely close its eyes, because a high justification is only needed to putin, the rest is slag, from this point of view , taking into account all this, the war and the first term, when he changed the constitution for himself, and the prayer service, and the rest are indicators of some kind of renewal that leads the country to the abyss, even more, but for putin creates an ideological cushion, which he really needed. well, mark, look, there is... one more point is very characteristic, that is, of all the tools or institutions of putin's legitimization , what else does he have? strategic nuclear weapons and tactical nuclear weapons, and here they decided to conduct certain exercises, so it is about the southern the military district of the russian federation, the district that is directly involved in the war against ukraine, but if we talk, for example

, about the broader palette that you talked about, then krpts, putin, so to speak, the anointing of the future, well, we understand that they are fully picture, it remains to return to the concept of the so-called great patriotic war, the great patriotic war against napoleon, the year 1812, and then, of course, we turn to stalin, who, let me remind you, in the 41st year, so to speak, addressed the soviet citizens with at the call of brothers and sisters, well and behold, accordingly, i am waiting for everything, maybe not this. in general, yes, with regard to nuclear weapons, it is definitely the cornerstone of the ideology, nuclear weapons, possessing them, these six hundred warheads, become the main instrument of russia's foreign policy, because they exploit this nuclear rhetoric all the time, constantly threatening, conducting training in the western district , including

lukashenka, is the main threat to the west, but it is also an ideological threat. for now, because it's a one-way street, after using nuclear weapons, you can't turn back, and will have the opposite effect, however , they use this nuclear rhetoric to intimidate, primarily the west, there is no point in intimidating the ukrainians, they are not afraid, but they summoned the british and french ambassadors, because of their statement about whether the territories of russia or not, it is for ukraine to decide, it is not france or great britain decides, they absolve themselves of responsibility, they supply the weapons, and now the weapons are ukrainian, not french and not british, because this is stupidity, they would remain so if they carried out strikes

with scalp or storm shadow, themselves the french and the british, but... this is not happening, ukraine is doing it, what difference does it make, what do they use? moscow uses iranian shaheds, so what? therefore, the sense is that this is essentially an attempt to influence the position of these countries, taking into account what france says constantly, in the person of president macron, starting from february 26, that a french military contingent can be sent to the territory of ukraine, provided that there is a breakthrough front, or if zelenskyi asks for it, zelenskyi's government will turn to kyiv. i don't know exactly how this is resolved in in the relevant jurisdictions, in the relevant european countries, they may appear on the territory of ukraine, which is at war, so this is an attempt to make france and london abandon these plans with the help of nuclear threats and blackmail. the decision

to use these nuclear weapons is not yet visible from this, but zakharova's statement that the answers will be in... strikes, if great britain does not refuse the supply of weapons and does not cancel the position on lifting restrictions on the use of these missiles, in particular on strikes on the territory of russia , then, as she said, there will be strikes on the territory of ukraine and outside its borders, on british facilities. of course, this cannot be connected with statements about nuclear exercises that moscow is going to conduct and about the possibility of using nuclear weapons. of course, this is an attempt at blackmail, an attempt to take a punt. so far it is so, we will see what it will lead to, but i definitely know the recipe for how to react, if we show weakness, if we show the west from their side that they can roll back in ... their initiatives, then the kremlin will go further, they will not stop, will go further offensive, from the point of view of political and other offensive, on europe, increasing and increasing demands. but if they say, and we

will also conduct nuclear exercises, consider the issue of placing nuclear weapons, tactical, other on the territory of romania, poland, which, by the way, poland is asking for, and romania is asking for, this is where moscow will hit the brakes and play back , will say: "so what?". we are not in this sense, we are not going to go to nuclear war. regarding the domestic war and the quasi-patriotic rhetoric that the kremlin can to be used to prolong the situation with the war, which has been going on for 2.5 years. it is necessary to somehow explain to the people why we are fighting, we are fighting, there is no end in sight. and now after ukraine received aid approved by the us congress. 61 billion is not much, but it is something, not nothing. it is obvious. for the continuation of the war, at least until november, and how will the american elections end, they may end in such a way that it will not give ukraine the opportunity to receive additional aid, new

aid, etc., and therefore the rhetoric of a national war and the like, we know how it is was nevertheless exploited by stalin, brothers and sisters, he actually created the russian orthodox church anew with sergiy stargorodskyi, this is a well-known story, the stalinist church that is still active to this day, it is stalin’s, he created by his graces... moreover, he had plans after war to go to constantinople, to liberate it, this is a well-known story, such plans were made in the headquarters, so yes, they will work out some concept, because putin said in his inaugural speech to achieve all goals, and still no one knows what your goals are, we we know these goals: to destroy ukraine, end its sovereignty and turn it into its constituent part, and we do not see any other goals... they are clear, but he cannot say it in this form. and why, mark, well , he could have simply said, we will

fight to the point of destruction, so to speak, as they started aggression against ukraine in general, well, we are talking about a full-scale invasion, you know, denazification and so on, well, in putin’s version it is we all know, well, these are stalin's versions, and of course, he is possible and will come to what he will say. history is completely the territory of russia, we occupy it because it is historical justice. he says the same thing from time to time. but then, if we enter from such a premise, he will drive the west into a dead end. and that's what i want, these are my lands. and if the west accepts it, the entire international security system will collapse. it will cease to exist even nominally. she can barely hold on anyway. but if someone can say: "i claim because these are our historical ones." territory, and this after the 1991 recognition of the borders of ukraine and everything else, how is it, you also recognized them as the bialowieza agreements, then there was the almaty declaration,

now it was remembered in time, the almaty declaration was caught up, when the cis was created, and all countries, and russia too, recognized ukraine within its borders, it was the agreement that was signed , that so we recognize ukraine precisely within its borders, with crimea and the rest, then why do we need a system. of international security, who needs all these agreements, the un and the like, if putin decides that the right of force is higher than international law, then the west either joins the war and defends not just ukraine, and the values ​​of international security, its principles, norms of international law, or swallows it, and russia immediately appears claims on the baltic states, it will also say russian territories to poland, it will also say that these are historical lands of the crown of the russian empire.

an extremely important moment, or rather the absence of one extremely important character, well sijin ping, he worked very technically, that is, he drew for himself an extremely important in his opinion, and i think not only in his opinion, a visit to the european continent, and did not come to putin neither at the inauguration nor at the... parade on may 9, but xi jinping talked to macron, so this is a certain démarche, i think he made it clear to putin, so to speak, all the signals that beijing could actually send to moscow, so to speak, it was not heard in moscow. i think china's position, albeit imperceptibly, though not quickly, is adjusting a little. i will not say that it changes. moscow remains an ally, but it is changing in the sense that beijing seeks to abdicate responsibility for that. what moscow is doing to remove as much as possible, therefore that when you are its ally, you see the difference between iran and beijing, both of them in a certain sense of the word are moscow's allies, but iran

is a military ally and is definitely responsible for moscow's actions in ukraine, because ukrainians are killed with their weapons. moreover, it is not the same thing that supplies london and paris, because moscow is embargoed as an aggressor country. sorry, there are no restrictions on the supply of arms to ukraine yet, none, because it is a victim country that defends itself under international law. beijing actually does choice in foreign policy, let's not talk about domestic. precisely in favor of compliance with international law, it is more profitable for them to adhere to these principles, and by the way, on the anniversary in february 2023, and the beijing declaration regarding the settlement, which of 12 points, yes, the first point there was compliance with international law and recognition of internationally recognized sovereignty and borders of ukraine. it seems to me that this is how the process of beijing's rapprochement with europe began, which is why

macron's visit to beijing went brilliantly at first. and now a return visit to sydney foam in paris, mutual interest, fear the arrival of trump. trump is fiercely anti-chinese. if he wins the elections in november, then in europe, which also expects eccentric actions from trump, in relation to nato, in relation to us obligations, in relation to europe, they are trying to look for alternative allies, to play on the balance. all of europe, in the person of france, because france is the foreign policy department of the entire european union, it is responsible for... politics, and germany for the economy in the eu. it has always been so traditionally. moreover, when great britain left the eu, this role in the eu is played by paris itself. today, of course, they are trying to agree on economic, investment, geopolitical strategies with beijing. but an important condition on the part of europe, france, in particular, in relation to beijing is to influence moscow. europe in the eastern part, which is ravaged by war, is an unacceptable

situation for the economy, for cooperation. for the interaction between beijing and paris and brussels is absolutely unacceptable, the war must stop absolutely if we want the policy of the four-term trump administration, which looming, neither beijing nor europe tolerated it, and i think beijing heard this signal. see for yourself, beijing after blinken's visit, despite the fact that in general the visit was cool, and the state department publicly stated that it was necessary to adhere to the sanctions against moscow, in addition to the sanctions against beijing, both legally and in fact, in fact, something has already begun to be implemented . for example, russian companies that felt free to make transactions through chinese financial institutions are now deprived of these opportunities, or very seriously limited, and these are gray schemes for the supply of military and dual purpose products, that is, beijing slowly, perhaps reluctantly, losing financially, but agrees to limit moscow in its use,

economic and otherwise. beijing for waging war, and we see that beijing all the time wants to be an observer, such as at the swiss conference, regarding the peace formula, on the initiative of zelenskyi, including, it is going to come as an observer, and it also wants to be an observer in the war, and not a representative of moscow in this matter, these are different qualities, we represent moscow, well, negotiate with moscow through us, no, we are observers and not responsible for moscow, we will try to influence. we will persuade on some issues, but please do not make us representatives of moscow, and suddenly moscow will really resort to steps for which it will have to be responsible, for example, it will use tactical nuclear weapons, why would beijing do this, and then rake out the consequences for moscow, and in in this sense, beijing is clearly increasing its distance in relation to moscow's plans for ukraine and europe and the western world, because economic interest, because the threat of the arrival of trump, which

will collapse. investment and technological cooperation, which is already taking place between beijing and washington. what then? where to get technological and other resources. beijing is diversifying the situation and focusing on europe, and in particular, at the time of macron's visit to beijing , agreements were made that airbus would be built in china, in particular, beijing is forced to choose priorities, or europe and to some extent america or moscow. but the merchandise is not comparable. trade with... russia is 200-210 billion dollars per year, and with europe it is almost 800, 750, 770, what is most important, and with america somewhere like 750-780, that is, it shows that the potential is unmatched, and moscow will continue to lose, and beijing will increase the distance with moscow and at the same time get closer to europe in these matters. i completely agree with you, mark, and i would just like to...