uh, the number two person. uh, here it should be explained that the position of the secretary of the security council is not the head of the security council, putin's official in the security council, but the head of the council of security, it is putin himself, and his only deputy is dmytro medvedev, that is, formally medvedev, he is the head of , not his. subordinate there, but due to the fact that patroshev has a very large influence, he actually managed the fsb, as well as other special services of russia, which is precisely why he had influence. the position of an assistant in general is useless, that is, many assistants are never seen there at all your boss only once during the appointment

and there are many of them, i of course believe that patrushev will have access to the body, and they will communicate with putin, and probably patrushev will somehow continue to supervise bortnikov and others there, but of course as his official position this will not be allowed. and if we talk about the future of shoigu, we can say that the very appointment of the secretary of the security council in a situation where the most serious representatives of the entourage that he is simply arrested in front of his eyes in the ministry of defense for the last two weeks were arrested, this basically means that he lost real hardware influence, or is this an exaggeration? well, of course, this is a significant downgrade for him. this is a structure that

has formal powers, the minister of defense is a lot of money, a lot of authority, a lot of responsibility, well, it is such an advisory position, shaygu, there is also such an additional weight in the face of the federal military-technical service, that is, it is an arms express. and well, i don't know what he will actually have over this service, because it is separate, but he will watch over it, well we'll see, that is , they gave him a certain, certain leverage there, but of course this is a substantial demotion, and what is the main structure in the russian government, the presidential administration, the government, if not the security council, then what...

the main political body is the presidential administration, and its, not even the head of the war administration, serhii kirienko, who manages the political sphere, because it is all internal politics and personnel policy, it is governors, it is deputies and, secondly, well, of course, the government, the government in russia now he is, as they say there... er, but i think he has much more powers than the formal main body in ukraine, the government, ukraine is a parliamentary republic, and we have the prime minister officially, he is generally the main figure there, but mishuska has more influence than shmyhal. by the way, why did they start talking so much about mishustyan and dzyumin now that mishustyan and dzyumin could both be putin's heirs. dyumin was taken away from

the tula region in order to make him some kind of high-ranking official, more seriously than an assistant to the president, and it will be like this the struggle for the heir, is it all white noise, er, more white noise, er, that is, dzyumin as governor, he was simple, he was a very bad governor, and they wanted to remove him for a long time, but it was not clear where, well, they came up with it. and in general, this experiment with the appointment of morticians there to various positions in the russian government, well, it did not work for putin, this experiment simply failed and dyumin is one of those people, that is, he returns to such a position, he will be closer to putin than he was like a governor, but again, he has no authority there. now,

according to the constitution of the russian federation number two is mishustin, if something happens to putin, mishustin becomes acting president. of the russian federation, and this is a very serious story, that is , you cannot simply replace him with anyone, you cannot simply say there that, let it be cheap, let there be someone else, this is simply impossible, and according to the law, that is, if there is a revolution, of course, you can be arrested for corruption, mr. yelya, an investigative committee can come, arrest you for corruption and the executors of the duty will be anyone, well, first of all, even if... arrest, then the acting prime minister will become the first vice prime minister, and this is now mantorov, by the way, he was bilausov, and secondly, this requires the president's decision for this to happen, and thirdly,

if mishustin already becomes acting president, then he will have immunity, precisely at the time of the next elections, well, i'm just remembering how it was in turkmenistan, where they also believed that he was the heir. in the meantime, murat niyazov should become speaker after his death parliament, he was simply arrested on the day of the death of the president of turkmenistan, and here we have the berda muhame dynasty, which rules turkmenistan to this day, and the founder was only the minister of health, so i just mean that i am in totalitarian countries i expect anything, and you are right, but this is not a totalitarian, but an authoritarian country, and that is why it is very difficult here. interests of various clans, it is not like in turkmenistan one vertical and that is all, and that is why a person needs a formal legitimacy, and it will be looked

at quite carefully, how do you perceive putin's statements that the attack on kharkiv oblast is just an attempt to create a gray buffer zone, and that ukraine itself is to blame for shelling belgrade and... that they entered border areas from belgorod oblast, how serious are these statements? well, i believe that the root cause is the truth, the desire to create a buffer zone, because the forces they use there are not enough to capture kharkiv, well, i guess they decided there, we will do an opportunistic one there, that is, let's start, there the war will show whether or not we can do the task. at least this is the same buffer zone, but even this is not very good for them there, and here i also think that there is a second , second task of everything that is happening, it is a psychological war in the west, if you

look, there are many western media, they began to say that everything was lost there, that's where mr. godarkovsky made a statement... ukraine will not win there, on the contrary, it will lose, because it does not have enough resources and that's all, all of them predict only one thing, that the western countries are beginning to think whether it is necessary to provide ukraine with resources at all, if they all do not lead to victory. thank you, mr. ilya, ilya ponomarov, russian oppositionist, member of the state duma of the russian federation from 2007 to 2016. was on our air, now let's move on to eastern topics. mykhailo yakobovych, orientalist, candidate of historical sciences, researcher at the oriental studies department of the university of freiburg in germany is in touch with us. i congratulate you, mr. mykhailo. good evening. well, we are talking against

the background of this story with the fall of the helicopter the president of the islamic republic of iran , ibrahim raisi, nothing is yet known about the ... fate, ayatollah akhameni, the de facto leader of iran, has just come forward and said that he hopes they can rescue raisi and the other iranian officials who were on board that helicopter, but in general, how serious are the consequences for iran of some disaster with the president, when in fact he is not the real head of state, what can it change at all? but with raisi there is such a danger that the question will arise before the pendulum itself, who will be his the successor, because he is almost 85 years old, his health is not very good, it is already necessary to think about the successor, and raisi, since he had a religious education, whether

the results of this search for the helicopter are still unknown to us, the raisi actually were considered such a successor due to the fact that he didn't have enough. religious education, that's why, in principle, he was suitable even for the next ayatollah. now, if something happens to raisi, uh... power goes to the vice president, who is muhammad mogbar, an old revolutionary, let's say, from the revolutionary guard corps, by the way, a person who was responsible at raisa for relations with moscow, including the signing of agreements on the transfer of drones and everything else, that is , formally, the regime will hold back, but it will be a rather serious challenge, and let's add all kinds of conspiracies here, and so that it does not become... raisi will survive or not, but i think that already tonight there will be statements about the zionist

conspiracy, which once again tried to destroy the islamic republic there, maybe even ukraine will be mentioned somewhere, i am sure that the russian media will come up with something, this is an interesting region, in to whom it happened, it is essentially western azerbaijan, before that a meeting with - actually... aliyev, well, there is enough force acting on the borders of that region that could try to shoot at this helicopter for any reason, so this is a very important topic, especially against the background of such informal negotiations, which the united states and iran are currently conducting, but now they will probably be put on hold, and the new security agreement between the united states and saudi. by the way, where the king's health has also deteriorated significantly, so there are quite a few of them here

challenges, in fact, who and how will continue to conduct politics, although global changes, of course , should not be expected here yet. in principle, if we talk about global changes and the influence of the middle east situation on them, do you expect the end of the war in the middle east in any real perspective? i expect even the beginning of new wars, uh, not that or the transition of this war, but a little bit to other regions, since tensions persist in yemen, well , the palestinian-israeli topic, here it is clear, southern lebanon and so on, it is not possible to oust hamas, the opposition to the actions of israel and the netanyahu government is huge, now the question is raised in some european countries about the recognition of... palestine, even the question is not whether palestine will be recognized there, but how and who will be recognized from that

side in which borders and so on, well, this is not a simple, difficult step, right there, the situation with iraq, because the iraqi government , currently headed by the pro-iranian muhammad mashiya, who was very attached to rais, is trying to regain control over the northern part , there are already kurdish ones question. again and again, there are still turkish interests in the same region, so here we have several such tense places, in which we can expect some kind of detente only in the case of the withdrawal of some of the forces, that is , if someone is removed there, to put it simply, but for now this parity, so to speak, it is sometimes a plus, then a minus, even now, when israel about... conducts an operation in rafah or around rafah,

new tunnels have been opened there that were working, that is, more and more new ones are being opened regions through which hamas received, in particular, support, and we see that tsagal cannot block these channels until now, that's why this year will pass under the sign of war, it's obvious, well, in principle here... the question arises, how can this conflict be ended, or even suspended, in a situation where in israel they say they wanted to get rid of hamas, well in hamas they say they wanted to get rid of israel, right? absolutely, that is, these are mutually exclusive positions, especially since hamas does not act independently, it acts from the fact that it looks at its partners, relatively speaking, from moscow to ... tehran and so on next, here, and israel, of course, in the same way,

despite the fact that the action is largely independent now, but we see these frictions with the biden administration, it seems to me that this is already the paradigm when it was possible, as in 2008 in georgia , there sarkozy proposed a plan, let's put everyone there, troops were quickly withdrawn there, the border was established, the world of the model of 2024 is already... there is no such thing, there are no forces that could put everyone there for some one purpose and say: you know, enough is enough for you fight let's admit this let's admit that here's a truce that is... those mechanisms that worked, whether they were good or bad, many people remained dissatisfied, they did not work, why, because in fact injustice and dissatisfaction multiplied, it did not solve anything, since trying to reconcile with russia is nothing decided, the attempt to make peace once again with hamas, with hezbollah, it does not solve anything,

the attempt to make peace with the houthis in 2015-16 , well... also did not solve anything, and therefore there is already a space for the fact that diplomacy works only in case , if they stand behind it powerful military forces, other positions for negotiations, you know, democratization, investments, these are all things that are not accepted in many authoritarian regimes, and obviously such as it was 10 years ago, 15 years ago, we are already at... hardly we will observe, even as the same division of sudan, for example, into two parts, but we see that at least for the northern sudan, so- called, it did not bring peace, nor did it bring economic prosperity to the south, so all these things, they were not resolved in this way, but only frozen and after a few years have already given their negative fruits, well, this is

a characteristic of the 19th century more than the 21st, however, absolutely. history it can be staged, it can be cyclical, linear, it can be thought of in different ways, but in many ways it repeats itself, and just as the collapse of the ottoman empire was to some extent a catastrophe for the near east, because the emergence of arab nationalism, the first arab the revolution, the arrival of colonial powers, as well as now the crisis of the western world has in many respects become a challenge, which did not bring dream of stability to those who even constantly resorted to anti-western rhetoric. you have to call someone there in the west and ask for help, or actually try to stay in some direction, so the situation here, it really causes such concern in many ways and, i would say,

unpredictability, that's how russia and china are trying to use this crisis for in the middle east, because we remember... that israel, let's say, tried to maintain more or less equal relations with the russian federation, prime minister benjamin netanyahu constantly met with the president of russia vladimir putin, it is also interesting with china, because we remember that there was a moment when netanyahu, who was not invited to washington , was ready to go to visit beijing first, but now both countries have such a completely strict anti-israel policy , china is even tougher than russia, it can be said that now both china and russia are trying to become... such leaders of the global south, and lately i am starting to rethink this concept of the global south, do you agree the global south itself, let's call it the global south, doesn't that offend it, like a certain kind of, you know, the colonialism of the north, the new one, we have countries here with quite a different set of interests, so they're

mostly left-wing in some ways, a lot of them of anti-western rhetoric, but china... it basically calls for the west in the issue that is related to israel and that is related to ukraine. what do i mean? we often hear that ukraine should not be allowed to lose there, just as israel should not be allowed to lose, but no one talks about a direct, indisputable victory of both ukraine and israel, or they talk about it, well , not at all in the way that, for example, ukrainians or israelis would like. and in the same way, china is trying in this case to say that russia should not lose, certain forces in the middle east, including the palestinians, although hamas is far from all palestinians, of course, and the question of whether they represent them or not, that that they should not lose, justice is needed, and this is the rhetoric, another issue is that china is very mature

an economic player, yes, they have a long history of trade relations, even with their opponents, but in political terms they often act, well, extremely straightforwardly, and when they leave this paradigm of prioritizing the economic over the political, it doesn’t always work out for them, everything after all , they did not manage to properly pressure taiwan in the elections that were held, they also have certain questions about central asia, in particular, putin immediately called tokayev after his visit to xi and, by the way, informed... the kazakh leader about how he is, so he negotiated everything, because in fact this is a region that russia always feared would go into the zone of chinese interests, that is, there are many such things, even the same one. iran, he does not bet on russia as you know, he will be absolutely dependent on china there. this is a game in which the parties have certain profits, but not the fact that these profits cannot

change in the future, because after all , the american economy remains more important to china than the russian one, and this creates certain red lines that china does not will be able to pass, they have not even fully passed. iran, because we still do not see the appearance of the full range of iranian weapons in russia, and north korea has not moved either. however, what will happen again, whether the west will hold back china with such a whip and gingerbread policy from these actions, this is a question for western leaders, here we have many different elections this year, and we will see which rhetoric will become dominant in them . and in principle, here... talk about how this situation will look from the point of view of the west, the west in your opinion ready for some decisive action? well,

for example, some people had naive hopes for mr. macron, that almost an entire contingent had already gone to odessa, now history will be repeated there, and a representative was invited to putin's inauguration. and the same is the case now with normandy, with the landing in normandy with these celebrations, will there be someone from russia, the level of support for ukrainian refugees, and the armed forces of ukraine, in france, if you look at the percentage of the budget there, it is not that big, so it is good rhetoric, but certain actions, well, they should actually be after that, of course, a lot of things are done informally, but... outside of europe, after all , now they perceive military power, as it has always been, because if a hegemon exists, then he must, sorry for such a term

is hegemonic, and if it behaves differently, well, it just looks like a tourist-attractive region with some interesting history, but nothing more, even in africa we see how france surrendered, how the united states surrendered to the same russians in political... terms and to the chinese, in other words, they are trying to withdraw somewhere, to approach there, and this raises a lot of questions in general about their ability to fight, and in order to do so, to return to the position of the cold war, judging by the pace of investments in the military sphere, they need both at least another 5 to 10 years, and what will happen in those five years, won't some forces come with this, you know, i would say... naive pacifism, let's stop giving everyone weapons, everyone will be concerned about climate change and there will be heaven on earth, will not the costs of defense is a big issue, and i would like

to believe that many europeans will still have the will to elect mature forces to the european parliament and to their national governments this year. thank you, mr. mykhailo, mykhailo yakubovych, orientalist, candidate of historical sciences, we were on the phone, we will break for a few minutes now, but please stay with us, there are still many interesting conversations ahead. problems with the joints limit movement, it is unpleasant and painful. strengthen them with the help of long joints. these are bags with collagen and vitamin c for restoring articular cartilage. arthritis contributes to the normal functioning of joints and has a positive effect on bone health. long joint'. improve motor functions, lengthen joints, move freely! europa league final only on megogo, will atalanta spoil the best season in the history of bayer leverkusen?

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mom, don't cry. a book by the writer olena cherninka. a mother's book about her son, a hero who was one of the first to volunteer to defend ukraine and went missing in the vast expanses of donbas. robert argin, remember, the morning will be without a hangover. there are discounts, they represent coconut. 20% in psarynyk, bam and oskad pharmacies. an unusual look at the news. good health, ladies and gentlemen, my name is mykola veresen. sharp presentation of facts and competent opinions. and in america they also say, let's have better roads , we will have even better ones. a special look at events in

ukraine at the border. there will be some katsaps in kyiv and beyond, what a world dreaming pa norman can we imagine it? all this in an informational marathon with mykola veresny. saturday 17:10, sunday 18:15 at espresso. verdict with serhiy rudenko. from now on in a new two-hour format. even more analytics, even more important topics, even more top guests. foreign experts, inclusion from abroad. about ukraine, the world, the front, society. and... there is feedback, you can express your opinion at any time of the day with the help of a telephone survey, turn on and turn on, the verdict with serhiy rudenko, every day on weekdays from 20 to 22 for espresso. we continue the politclub program on the espresso tv channel, vitaly portykov is with you and

we will talk about the events in slovakia with our guest, political scientist, head of the institute of public relations in bratislava hryhoriy mesezhnikov. good evening, mr. mesezhnikov, thank you for delaying our expulsion. what is happening now in slovakia after this unexpected attack on prime minister robert fico, how has the situation changed in ukraine? the atmosphere has changed, of course, the atmosphere in slovakia already dedicated, confrontational, after the elections, in the 23rd year, in september, the government of national populist parties came to power, they started a program to weaken, and even eliminate the liberal-democratic regime, and of course, this caused protests, protests of opposition parties, civil society, intelligentsia , and for several months...

here we had long demonstrations throughout the country in bratislava, up to 45,000 people came to the main square, then there were the presidential elections, they clearly increased the degree of confrontation, four days ago everyone was shocked an event that had never happened in slovakia, there were some murders with political motives, but there were no politicians. they did not kill, of course , the first persons, government officials, and of course, the situation is tense, fortunately, the worst is not yet confirmed, robert fitso will survive, he has a serious condition, a serious health condition, but he is conscious, conscious, and his life

nothing threatens, said the minister. of internal affairs remains, however, the question of why this happened is the first question, and the second is how the country will develop further, and i think that now many people in slovakia are thinking about what can be done to prevent a confrontation that could lead to some kind of civil, if not skirmishes, at least conflicts that could put them in danger. the current president of slovakia, ms. chaputova, and the new head of state, mr. piligrini, held a joint meeting with each other, they made a joint statement related to the need to unite in society, which is needed so that there is no discord in communication.