the actions of the ukrainian armed forces are not expected, mr. vitaliy, i have already said that the expenses of the russian budget have reached a historical maximum of approximately 7%, and this is catastrophic for the russian economy, especially if we take into account the expansion of the nature of economic sanctions from the west, well, accordingly, ukrainian uavs hit the oil refining industry of the russian federation, that is, there is a question about the possibility of continuing. war of the russian federation, when the so-called institute for the study of war comes out and says that currently the russian federation plans the nature of a protracted war, on the basis of which, similar nature of analysis, any war lives at the expense of the economy, the economy is the oxygen of war, its blood, accordingly, if there is not enough funding to meet the needs of the military industry and, accordingly, the army.

there is no question of a weak, correspondingly protracted conflict, that is why they are in a hurry to use the so-called window of opportunity until, respectively, the middle of june . and what do you think about the mobilization capabilities of the russian federation? enough, mr. vitaly, here it is worth talking about what the total mobilization reserve of the occupying country is 12 million. for comparison, ukraine has 2.2 million. therefore, accordingly, if a decision is made on general mobilization, the russian federation will use. the latter, as they say, is the jackpot, namely the advantage in manpower, the same tactic that was used during the second world war. well, we see that putin is somehow very reluctant to the idea of ​​general mobilization, this is the main thesis that they refute, moreover, the new minister of defense bilousov, they even say that he will think about the demobilization of those who are currently at the front, well, this, let's say , is more reassuring for the internal ones.

consumer than reality. the russian federation is currently looking for ways to replenish personnel without conducting partial mobilization. there is talk of the involvement of the so -called special contingent of katze, convicts and the implementation of a total mobilization in the occupied territories of ukraine, luhansk, donetsk oblast, zaporizhzhya, kherson oblast. by the way, mobilizations also took place in crimea, which had not happened until recently. moreover, it is said that the mobilization in crimea from... takes place exclusively for the national identity of the crimean tatar population and, accordingly, ukrainians, this is indicative, that is, it tries to solve several issues at the same time: replenishment of personnel and replacement of the corresponding population at the expense of the corresponding russian-speaking population, well, the third contingent is the so- called mercenaries, not only from the russian federation, but also from third world countries (nepal, somalia). and others who are ready

to fight on the territory for $500 respectively of our country, and these are small funds for the ministry of defense of the russian federation, so there will be enough willing people, and it is precisely at the expense of this that they are trying to compensate for the current needs in manpower, so it seems to me that in the national republics of russia, they are the same politics is conducted as in crimea, absolutely precisely, at the expense of national minorities. look at who is mainly fighting, buryats, kalmyks, and others, i.e. also representatives of the north caucasus, and the question of disposal of small nations is resolved, especially in the north caucasus. thank you, mr. dmytro, dmytro snigiv, a military expert, co-chairman of the public initiative on the law of the case, was in touch with us. we will now continue this russian topic in a conversation with the russian oppositionist, former deputy of the state duma of the russian federation ilya panamarev. greetings mr. ilya. good evening,

well, let's start by explaining to our viewers the essence of these changes in the russian government and leadership that took place recently, well, first of all, there is a certain internal dispute there, and putin needs to keep his head, even after what happened oh prigorzhin, that's when we said that... shoigu will definitely be with them, but that it will last a certain time when he will remain in office, because putin never does anything under pressure, and that's why he, for example, and and put together this term, when there will be a rotation of the government, so that it looks like it was his own decision, nor that someone forced him to do it, but... but since there was additional pressure

from mr. patrushev, who tried, first, to destroy shoigu, secondly, to promote his... son to the post of prime minister, then putin, who, well, probably planned to promote dmitry patroshev, that is, the son of the son of mykola platonovych, he did it, but removed patroshev to another position, that is, these are 100% internal traditional maneuvers that mr. putin does, and what happened to the appointment. this is the most interesting thing, i have known andrii yaremovich for a long time, and he has always been such an ideological supporter of the militarization of the economy, because he believes that its growth, development and

modernization are possible only through militarization, even during the time when i was during the presidency of dmitry medvedov . was such an opponent who cooperated with putin, and to all our opinions that it is necessary to cooperate with the west, he said that it is not necessary to do this, it is necessary to develop internal demands and the military-industrial complex, but now he will be responsible for that is, it is difficult to call him a liberal economist, but he is a competent economist, this is also an important issue. he is competent, he is very ideological, he is not liberal from the point of view, he is not neoliberal, he is a monetarist, he is a neo-contincian, and he has the main idea there, which needs to be developed

domestic industry, which is not an idea at all, i, for example, support it, but of course not at the expense of the military-industrial complex, but he says that nothing else can exist in... and that is why he was simply the only one of such famous russian economists, who from the first day and ideologically supported the war, what is his main task, what do you think in these stories related to the change of the minister of defense, the audit of the minister of defense, he has to tell putin how much money is left for the war , whether to stop corruption flows from the ministry defense, what do you think putin expects from him in the first place? well, look, the fight against corruption, in fact, is what is most dangerous for the normal functioning of the ministry of defense, because it is simply all built on corruption, and this is the interest of

individual managers in working there at all, and that is why i believe that bilausov will actually start the fight against corruption, it will create. the risks that production will simply stop there for a certain period of time, because no, no, no one will be there, no one will work, but i believe that this is not the main goal for putin, it is customary for there to be such a certain supervision over what is happening there, but the main thing is that he is betting on the long-term militarization of the economy, and i believe that this. .. does not only apply to ukraine, it also applies to future wars that may be there with poland, with the baltic countries and with all others, what worries me the most about this appointment, because the appointment of bilausovo, this determines that this is a treaty war ,

the war specifically with ukraine, or development in general russia as a state that is destabilizing the situation all around, let's clarify, war in general, war in general, i... i believe that with ukraine, they will bet on the fact that trump will come and there will be some kind of truce there, some kind of balance there, for which they will prepare for the next conflict. and tell me, please, panel, what do you think happened with o, we don't have any, i hope that he will appear, there is already one, what happened to mykola patrish, they even tried to deceive him like that ... number two in russian political leadership, by the way, this is how they once tried to portray sergey ivanov, who became the representative of the president of russia, as the number two person, why on ecology, in fact, on the nature of use, well, first of all, i believe that he never was not

the number two person, here it must be explained that the position of the secretary of the security council is not the head of the security council. official for putin in the security council, but the head of the security council is putin himself, and his only deputy is dmitry medvedev, that is , formally medvedev... he is the head of, not his subordinate there, but due to the fact that patroshev has a very large influence, he actually managed the fsb, as well as the paf and other special services of russia, precisely because of that, he had influence, the position of an assistant in general, it is of no use. that is, many assistants, they never see their own there at all, except for one

appointment, and there are many of them, i certainly believe that patrushev will have access to the body, and they will communicate with putin, and probably patrushev will somehow continue to supervise there nad nad bortnikov and others. official, but of course, as an official position, he will not be allowed to do this, and if we talk about the future of the shoigu, we can say that the very appointment of the secretary of the security council in a situation where the biggest, most serious representatives will surround him, that he will simply be arrested before his eyes in the ministry of defense, is already two have been arrested in the last week, this basically means that he has lost real hardware influence, or is this an exaggeration, well, of course, for him, this is a substantial demotion, well, ratbes is generally

a structure that has formal powers, the minister of defense is a lot of money, a lot of authority, a lot of responsibility, well, it's such a prestigious position, and the shaygu has such additional weight in the face of the federal service. of the military-technical department, that is, it is the export of weapons, and i don’t know what he will actually have over this service there, because it is separate, but he will supervise it, well , we’ll see, that is, he was given certain, certain levers there , but well, of course, this is a substantial downgrade, but what is the main structure of the russian government, the presidential administration? the government, if not the security council, then what? well,

the main political body is the administration of the president, and it is not even the head of the vaino administration, but serhiy kiriyenko, who manages the political sphere, because it is all internal politics and personnel policy, it is governors, it is deputies and, secondly - of course, the government, the government in russia now, as they say, is a technocrat there, but i believe that it has much more authority than the formally main body of the government in ukraine, a parliamentary republic in ukraine, and our prime minister is an official there generally the main thing a figure, but the mishustian has no more influence than the shmygal, by the way, why did they start talking so much about... mishustyan and dyumin, that mishustian and dyumin could both be putin's heirs, dyumin was generally

taken from the tula region, to make him some high-ranking official more seriously than an assistant to the president, and this is going to be such a struggle with a henchman, or is it all white noise, er, more white noise, that is, dzyumin as a governor, he was simple, he was a very bad governor , and its a long time ago wanted to clean up, but it was not clear where, well, they came up with it, and in general, this experiment with the appointment of undertakers there to various positions in the russian government, well, it did not work for putin, this experiment simply failed and dzyumin is one of such people, that is, he is coming back to such a position, he will be closer. to putin than he was as a governor, but again he will not have the authority there, now,

accordingly, the constitution of the russian federation number two is mishusstin, if something happens to putin, mishusstin becomes acting president of the russian federation, and this is a very serious story, that is , you cannot simply replace him with anyone, you cannot just say there that it will be cheap, and there will be someone... this is simply impossible, and according to the law , that is, if there is a revolution, of course, you can arrest for corruption, mr. yelya, an investigative committee can come and arrest the executors for corruption as well. well, first of all, even if they are arrested, then the acting prime minister will become the first vice prime minister, and this is now mantorov, by the way, he was bilausov, and secondly, this requires the president's decision for this to happen, and thirdly,

if mishustin already becomes acting president, then he will have immunity, just time. the next elections, well, i just remember how it was in turkmenistan, where they also believed that the speaker of the parliament should become the speaker of the parliament after his death in the interim of niyazov, he was simply arrested on the day of the death of the president of turkmenistan, and here we have the dynasty of berda muhamediyem, which governs turkmenistan to this day, and was the founder of everything only the minister of health, so i just mean that in totalitarian countries i expect anything, and you're right, but this is not... not a totalitarian, but an authoritarian country, and that's why there is a very difficult balance of interests of various clans, it's not like in turkmenistan one vertical and that's all, and that's why a person needs formal legitimacy, and it will be looked at

quite carefully. how do you perceive these statements by putin that the offensive in kharkiv oblast is just an attempt. the gray buffer zone and that ukraine itself is to blame for shelling it belgrade and that they entered the border areas from belgorod region, how serious are these statements? well, i believe that the root cause, it's true, is the desire to create a buffer zone, because the forces they use there are not enough to capture kharkiv, well, probably there, that is , let's start, there the war will show. will we be able to, or will we not be able to, the minimum task is the same buffer zone, but even that they are not doing very well there, and here i also believe that there is a second, second task, of all that is happening, this is a psychological war in the west if you

look, many western media, they began to say that everything there... has disappeared, this is where mr. godarkovsky made a statement, ukraine will not win there, on the contrary, it will lose, there are not enough resources, and that's all, everyone predicts only one thing, that the western the country is beginning to think whether it is necessary to provide ukraine with resources at all, if they all do not lead to victory. thank you, mr. ilya, ilya ponomarov, russian opposition leader, mp. of the state duma of the russian federation in 2007-2016 was on our air, now let's move on to eastern topics. mykhailo yakubovych, orientalist, candidate of historical sciences, researcher of the oriental studies department of the university of freiburg in germany, we are in touch. i congratulate you, mr. mykhailo. good evening, well, we are talking against

the background of this story with the fall of the helicopter of the president of the islamic republic. nothing is known yet about his fate, only ayatollah ahameni, the de facto leader of iran, has spoken and said that he hopes they can save raisi and the other iranian officials who were on board that helicopter, but in general, as far as the consequences of some kind of disaster with the president are serious for iran, when in fact he is not the real head of state, what can this... in general change, specifically with raisi there is such a danger that the question will arise in front of the pendulum itself, who will be his successor, because almost 85 years old, the state of health is not very good, it is already necessary to think about the successor, and raisi, since he had a religious education, whether the results of this search

for the helicopter are still unknown to us, actually raisi was considered to be the next one... due to the fact that in i had him religious education, and, in principle, he was suitable even for the next ayatollah, now in the event that something happens to raisi, power passes to the vice president, who is muhammad mogbar, an old revolutionary, let's say, from the revolutionary guard corps, by the way , the person who was responsible at raisa for relations with moscow, including. signing agreements on the transfer of drones and everything else, that is, formally, the regime will refrain, but it will be a rather serious challenge, well, let's add here... all kinds of conspiracies, and whatever it did not happen there, whether raisi will survive or not, but i think already tonight there will be statements about

the zionist conspiracy, which once again tried to destroy the islamic republic there, maybe even somewhere they will mention ukraine, i am sure that something will emerge in the russian media, an interesting region in which it happened, it is essentially west azerbaijan, before that the meeting. with aliyev himself, well, there is enough force on the borders of that region that could try to shoot at this helicopter for any reason, so this is a very important topic, more against the background of such informal negotiations, which the united states is currently conducting with iran, but now they will probably be put on hold, and a new security agreement. between the united states and saudi arabia, by the way, where the king's health has also deteriorated significantly, so there are quite a lot of such

challenges here, in fact, who and how will continue to conduct politics, although, of course , we should not expect global changes here yet. in principle, if we talk about global changes and the influence of the middle eastern situation on them, you generally expect is the end of the war imminent in any realistic perspective? i even expect the beginning of new wars, not that or the transition of this war little by little to other regions, since tensions persist in yemen, well , the palestinian-israeli topic, here it is clear, southern lebanon and so on, it is not possible to dislodge hamas, opposition to the actions of israel and netanyahu's government is huge, now there is a question in... some european countries about the recognition of palestine, even the question is not that palestine will be recognized there, but how and who will be recognized from that

parties, in which borders and so on, well, this is not a simple, difficult step, right there, the situation with iraq, because the iraqi government , currently headed by the pro-iranian muhammad ashiya, who was very tied up on the flight, is trying to regain control of ... in the northern part, there are also kurdish issues, again, and again there are turkish interests in the same region, so here we have several such tense places in which we can expect some kind of detente only in the event of the withdrawal of some of forces, i.e. if someone is distinguished there, it is easier speaking, but at the moment this parity, so to speak... in plus or minus. even now, when israel is conducting an operation in rafah, or around rafah, new tunnels have been opened there that were working, that is

, new and new regions are being opened through which hamas received, in particular, support, and we see that until these channels are blocked tsagal doesn't succeed, that's why this year will pass under the sign of war, it's eyes. well, in principle , the question immediately arises, how to end or even suspend this conflict in a situation when israel says they wanted to get rid of hamas, well hamas says they wanted to get rid of israel, right? absolutely, that is , these are mutually exclusive positions, especially since hamas does not act independently, it acts from the fact that it looks at its partners, conditionally. speaking from moscow to doha, tehran and so on. well, israel, of course, is the same, despite the fact that it acts

independently in many ways now, but we see these frictions with the biden administration, it seems to me that this is already the paradigm when it was possible, as in 2008 in georgia, there sarkozy proposed a plan let's put everyone in prison, quickly withdraw the troops there, hold the border, peace. the sample of 2024 is no longer like that, there are no forces that could put everyone there for one whole, say, you know, it is enough for you to fight, let us admit this, admit that, there is a truce, that is, the mechanisms that worked, whether they were good or bad, many remained dissatisfied, they did not work, why, because in fact injustice and discontent multiplied, it did not solve anything. since the attempt to reconcile with russia did not solve anything, the attempt to reconcile once again with hamas, with hezbollah, it does not solve anything, the attempt

to reconcile with... the sith in 2015-16 did not solve anything either, and therefore there is already room for the fact that diplomacy works only if behind it are powerful military forces, there are other positions for negotiations there, you know, democratization, investments, these are all things that are not accepted in many authoritarian regimes, and obviously such as it was 10 years ago, 15 years ago, we are unlikely to will observe, even as the same section sudan, for example, into two parts, but we see that, at least for northern sudan, this did not bring so-called peace, nor did it bring economic prosperity to the south, so all these things, they were not resolved in this way, but only frozen and after a few years already given its negative fruits, well, this

is a characteristic of the 19th century rather than... the 21st, the truth is, absolutely, history, it can be staged, it can be cyclical, linear, you can think of it in different ways, but in many ways it repeats itself , and just as it was for the near east, to a certain extent catastrophe, the collapse of the ottoman empire, because the emergence of arab nationalism, the first arab revolution, the arrival of colonial powers, as well as the crisis of the western world. in many ways, it became a challenge that, well, did not bring the desired stability to those who even constantly resorted to anti-western rhetoric, you have to call someone in the west and ask for help, or actually try to stay in some direction, so here is the situation, it really causes such concern in many ways and i would say unpredictability, that is how russia and china on...

to use this crisis in the middle east, because we remember that israel, let's say, tried to maintain more or less equal relations with the russian federation, prime minister benjamin netanyahu constantly met with russian president vladimir putin, it is also interesting with china , because we remember that there was a moment when netanyahu, who was not invited to washington, was ready to go to visit beijing first, but now both countries have such an absolutely tough anti-israel policy, china is even tougher than russia. you can to say that china and russia are now trying to become such leaders of the global south? lately i'm starting to rethink this concept of the global south, does the global south itself agree that we call it the global south, or does it not insult it, as a certain kind of, you know, the colonialism of the north, the new? we have countries here with quite a different set of interests, so they

are mostly left-wing in some ways, they have a lot of... anti-western rhetoric, but china, it basically apes the west in the issue that is related to israel, which related to ukraine. what do i mean? we often hear that there is no need to allow ukraine to lose, just as it is not necessary to allow israel to lose, but no one talks about a direct, indisputable victory for both ukraine and israel, or they talk about it, well , not at all, as if... i wanted b, for example, to ukrainians or israelis, and in the same way china is trying in this case to say that russia should not lose, certain forces in the middle east, including the palestinians, although hamas is far from all palestinians, of course, and the question of whether they represent them or not, that they should not lose, justice is needed, and that's the rhetoric, the other question is that china is a very mature economic player, they have a great history so

trade. relations even with their opponents, but politically they often act extremely straightforwardly, and when they depart from this paradigm of prioritizing the economic over the political, they do not always succeed, after all, they did not manage to adequately pressure taiwan in the elections , that have passed, they also have certain questions about central asia, in particular, putin immediately called... tokayev after his visit to xi and, by the way, informed the kazakh leader about how he, so he negotiated everything, because in essence , this is a region that russia has always feared would go into the zone of chinese interests, that is, there are many such things, even iran itself, it does not bet on russia in such a way that, you know, it will absolutely be dependent on china there, it is a game, which side has certain benefits, but not the fact that these benefits...