that the long war against ukraine you mentioned, it involves the resources and reconstruction of what was calculated, for what, for the blitzkrieg? the ice blitz was failed thanks to the courage and skill of the armed forces of ukraine, but a long war, it assumes that the competition is resourceful, and accordingly, we understand that the russian generals did not cope with what, in principle, the representatives of the nabi clan coped with . that is , people who manually adjusted the russian economy, switching it to new markets and so on and so forth, building bridges with india or with china and trying to diversify one or another of their gray supply of energy resources, and here is bilousov, as a cybernetician, he basically belongs to that environment and we understand that it is just possible for him to decide to cut other tasks, prepares. the ministry of defense primarily as

a logistics center, because the general staff should be in charge of the war? he left yerasimov, and gerasimov, well, no less than shuigu, is responsible for all that the russian generals fortunately failed. in this concept of a long war, which looks so attractive to russia, there is a huge mistake, because the ukrainian war is a composition of two different warriors. on one side there is a huge front line. along which a classic war of attrition is taking place, as general zaluzhnyi wrote in his famous article, similar to the first world war, and in this long war of attrition, russia already has a strategic advantage, because it has a greater human mobilization resource, a developed military-industrial complex, and as you know, in russia the value of human life is much lower, there you can throw unlimited the number of soldiers in the meat attack, but there is another... component in this ukrainian war -

the crimean peninsula, the preschool place of the russian military machine, zaklau zavitsem, it is the center of gravity of this war. ukraine, having neither a navy nor an air force, expelled the entire russian fleet from the crimean ports. every day we see missile strikes, now thank god not only storm shadow and scalp, the americans passed on attacks from the maximum range, that is, this concept of a long war will not work. if macron's concept is announced participation of the armed forces of france, england, and sweden, will really be implemented in ukraine, it will not be implemented by infantry divisions. macron does not have infantry divisions that can replace ukrainian ones on the front line. he has aviation. macron protests against red lines. i believe that the most stupid red line that we have all taken upon ourselves is that there must be ukrainian pilots behind the helms of western planes. why definitely ukrainian

pilots? we have been waiting for these ukrainian pilots for two years, because it is not so easy to train pilots, there should still be three or four service people for one pilot, there should be airfields and the rest. much more efficiently, everything is done by coordinated aviation units of french mirages, english typhoons, and swedish gribbens, which take off from polish and romanian airfields. poland and romania are actually being discussed, it's not only that, i tell my ukrainian audience about it every day, general buzhanskyi is already discussing it in solov'ov as a real possibility, the russians have already understood this, by the way, when discussing, they no longer say that will carry out nuclear strikes on romania and poland, they realized that this concept had failed. macron behaves very well in the nuclear sphere, he also proposed to extend the french nuclear umbrella to the entire european union. to provide nuclear guarantees, and

this is an interesting idea, to declare its nuclear forces as eu nuclear forces. so this concept of a long war will be destroyed, 100, maximum 200 of these western planes from the airfields of poland and romania, armed with stormshades and french scalps, will be enough, and the crimean group will be driven out of there. well, that's it in case, if such people dare, and such western aviation, together with the crews and the corresponding infrastructure, will be. launched into the russian-ukrainian war, but currently at the present moment we see putin's visit to the people's republic of china, i.e. the whole team that he brought with him, we understand that, well, so that the chinese comrades will look, but the key story that he has to hear, what they want to say to him and whether he will hear what xijin ping has to say to him. chinese comrades perfectly see the humiliated position of russia, i would pay attention. in my opinion,

many underestimated macron's meeting with xi, judging by the explosion of publication simultaneously in the chinese and french press, it was very successful. macron was driving everyone somewhere. his youth in the pyrenees, now the great powers, china, the usa and france. for the first time in recent decades, france realized its role as a great power. this desire is the main driver for macron in his claim to become the leader of the free world, the leader in the defense of ukraine in the war. the dream of the second yalta actually remained with the russians. for 10 years , they offered a friend yalta. like, let's share world. we will have the post-soviet space, ukraine and the rest. and... you are somewhere else, but the chinese, the french and the americans are currently working on the concept of a third viola, without russia. macron is playing a very interesting game there, what do they have in common with everyone. you know what they found a common language, not only that russia will not be a great power, they do not

wish for it to be dominated by america in the future world. macron has a very strong american component, and the chinese are very profitable. well, the concept is just that. instead of the soviet union, macron begins to look contacts with beijing. degaulle did not want to be just america's junior partner. and he always had a special relationship with moscow. and now, when moscow will turn into zero after the defeat in the ukrainian war, it will have a special relationship with beijing. and beijing needs france, because it is one thing to compete in the future world with the usa by itself, and another thing is to have france. have a triangle, here... france, china and the usa. well, accordingly, and putin, as far as we understand, left with another offer, with another offer, and maybe he was just asked, well, tell putin about your plans, how many years

are you going to fight the civilized world, 10 , 20, 50, 100, so what is your long war, you see what the difference is, putin says. the chinese are listening, all the resources are in china, all the trump cards are now in china, and almost all chinese banks have stopped large transfers with russia, it can strengthen the trend, it can weaken it. now putin, in relation to ukraine, will desperately persuade china to join the plan of the korean scenario. by the way, this is dangerously korean script because america would agree to him, but we see the inconsistency of the biden administration, for example, saliva. came in the most difficult times, when there was no help to prevent ukrainians from striking oil refineries in russia. it is very good that the ukrainians did not listen to him. all these hesitations in the american administration will continue,

and they would agree to the korean option. andrii andriyovych, well, the danger of the korean scenario is that at one time we remember that more than a million people died, so with... with on both sides, i.e. then stalin and his korean puppets, the entire korean peninsula with corpses, yes, it was a danger, and we see putin's readiness to exchange all the so-called russian infantry in meat assaults, so according to the concept of general shapushnikov, it was called an offensive until the end of the offensive impulse, the offensive impulse is live russian meat that they are throwing, but we understand that they are for... they have a sufficient number of trained people, in principle this does not apply to the kharkiv operation now, because the resource the base is insufficient, we are talking about personnel, we are talking about equipment and so on, but this does not mean that putin will not try to push his vision

of the korean war. well, the key thing is that the war in korea ended not even when the offensive impulse of the russian-korean-chinese interventionists ended, it ended when the steel burned. and this one, despite the prophecy of the nightingale, is still alive, not only did stalin die, not only did stalin die, 100 thousand american soldiers remained on the territory of south korea for another 50 years, this the main thing in the korean scenario was that if putin died, it would be a great gift to all humanity, but i spoke in detail about the korean scenario, because it is necessary to analyze putin's plans, but i say once again, ukraine will not agree to this scenario and it will not. . the new cordial agreement between the british and france, the joint statement of the ministers of foreign affairs kemerna and sejournay, these are wonderful texts,

it reminds me of the vocabulary of churchill's war speeches, it says that we are obliged, it is a matter of our honor, of our security, to defeat russia, and future humanity. appreciate us, how we accomplished this mission, how we will be defeated, therefore no korean options and no long war, mr. putin, but putin, well, he is not ready to accept. on this concept, rather than anything he does, he tries to attract chinese help, yes, well, maybe resource, maybe some additional, maybe negotiation , the so-called swiss peace format is looming, it is still unknown whether the chinese will be there as observers, and that is probably why putin decided to open a new additional site front, when we talk, in particular, about the north of the kharkiv region, in your opinion, what is the reason for this next phase... of senseless aggression in the kharkiv direction, and, of course, this is to present the swiss conference

with some facts on the ground, no taking kharkiv cannot be, for this you need 500 thousand minced meat russian soldiers, he only has 50, well, they will present a few villages, they may still take them, but the fact is that they came to china in this huge camp, but to china own game, which is the strongest effective factor in china, all so...lost very much, just like putin, all basically carried out a coup d'état in china, he broke the tradition of densioping, went for a third term, as he said: chinese people, elect me for a third term, i will bring you taiwan, why he was so confident because he thought that he pushed putin to aggression, taiwan was saved by ukraine in his hostomel battle, if putin took ukraine, as american intelligence believed, in seven days, he would take everything after that. taiwan with bare hands. it would already be clear that if in the eyes of the whole world, in the eyes of the americans

, ukraine lost in seven days, then siya would have won this game, but he lost it. two years have passed since american investment and the flow of american technology stopped, and the chinese economy is going through extremely difficult times. and the chinese elite is already making claims against xi, saying that you promised us taiwan, but there is no taiwan. instead, two years of decline in the chinese economy. relations with the usa and objectively it is necessary and enormous domestic political pressure. everyone, of course, is not going to completely abandon putin now wants, but he will still be needed as an argument, but we are under enormous pressure to restore relations with the united states. so putin has nothing to catch here either. you say, he has not yet lost hope for the korean option: let a person gradually realize his defeat. the release of patrushev showed that he... took the first step towards enlightenment, he realized that his nuclear blackmail was not working,

decided to replace it with a long war and, in parallel, pressure on the west with the help of china for the korean option, this is his tactic. but he left bortnikov and we understand that bortnikov and the federal security service, in particular military intelligence, they should be responsible for the implementation of this blitzkrieg, it was all, you see, a fake, from beginning to end, but he did not go against bortnikov, do you have a feeling that bortnikov can be next? yes, he chooses who is more dangerous, let these generals, when they are tortured in cells, shout that bortnikov is guilty. stalin also, when it was necessary to choose between the army and lubyanka, chose lubyanka, because it is always more dangerous for dictators than the army. lubyanka is, after all, those people who are nearby, who will protect him. who

will topple the dictator personally is not important, what is important is that the concept of a long war will be broken, i can firmly say about this, until january 21, 2025, that is why it is so important who will be the president there, we could talk about it in more detail, i, to stuff, not sure which one of the two, biden or trump, they're both... no longer ostentatious. secondly, i believe that the concept of macron, the concept of the entente, the new cordial agreement, will be implemented long before january 21, 2025 . it is technically very easy to implement, all that is needed is political will, a hundred, preferably two planes in the sky of ukraine, and there will be no long war. thank you very much andrii andriyovych for this extremely interesting and informative conversation. god bless you, i want to remind our tv viewers that andriy pionkovskyi,

a famous political scientist who is in washington, was currently working on espresso. greetings, this is svoboda live on radio svoboda. we have already approached the serpent himself. the following shots may shock you. news from the scene. kamikaze drone attacks live. political analytics, objectively and meaningfully there is no political season, exclusive interviews, reports from the hottest points of the front. freedom life, frankly and impartially. you draw your own conclusions. vasyl zima's big broadcast. two hours of air time. two hours of your time. two hours to learn about the war and how the world lives. two hours to keep up with economic and sports news. two hours in the company of favorite presenters, presenters who

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they cry for you, for you ... they pray, we did not give up, because we knew that you are already somewhere nearby, half the battle is to know how difficult victory is, and we will do everything to hug you as soon as possible. therefore, when you are at home, when we are together, we are more than a family, we are a nation that united around you, and now

oleksiy hetman, major of the national guard of ukraine in the reserve, veteran of the russian-ukrainian war, will work on the espresso tv channel. glory to ukraine, mr. oleksiy, i congratulate you. glory to the hero, i congratulate you. kharkiv direction. yes, the enemy seems to be expanding this section of the front by another 70 km. on the other hand, we understand that they did not use their so-called strategic reserve in order to intensify offensive actions there, so i would ask you to first of all assess the current operational situation in kharkiv region. well, division 18 is located, they created two bridgeheads, 5-7 km deep and 13-15 km wide, this is exactly what is written in the textbooks, that bridgeheads should be made so that you can continue to try, move forward, well, using already connecting , well, the main forces, because they were used to create these bridgeheads, this is approximately 15%, no more than 15% of the grouping that is there, was there, it means manpower, with

the equipment there is a separate issue, why do you need no less, well 15 km is approximate, a little more is better. because, in order not to be unpleasant shelling of the advancing troops from the flanks, from what mortars, that is, it should be so, so wide, if they want to spread, well, that is also quite understandable, we are talking about the minimum width of these bridgeheads, if they are larger, then this is better for of the advancing army, then they provide the center with more or less opportunities to drive something, well, more calmly, because it will only be artillery fire, mortar crossfire or from there for small arms, they will not, well, not reach there, so they will spread, well, they will try, which in their goal, why they are doing it, well , it is unlikely that they will try to surround or capture kharkiv, directly, because they understand very well that

it is impossible to do this with such a number of people, well, forces and means, but to get as close as possible to it, they will try for what, in order to... it was already the aiming range of artillery artillery d-20 there d30, not to mention there prepions, cloves and all other artillery, so that the city could be bombarded not only with already planning bombs and missiles, but directly with shells , this will greatly complicate the situation directly in the city, so it is necessary to keep the defense there as much as possible and not let them move closer to kharkiv. mr. major, look, and deploy? they can, so to speak, strengthen certain additional, for example, offensive vectors, if we are talking about the north of kharkiv region in the direction of sumy region, or they can even more simply open another front not far from sumy, of course they will open near sumy, they want to transform all the reasons that the big city of sumy, the big city of kharkiv, to expand the area, well, it can be

theoretically assumed that they want to stretch our defense line very, very much, because sumy is a 560 km border with the russian federation, well, they may not have enough , approximately 30,000 soldiers are concentrated there, and how they, well, i don't know, how they want it all over. no, not even to kharkiv region, it can already reach a thousand kilometers there, no, i think that, well, why should they do this, they need to advance, they want to create a gray zone with large cities, this is a sanitary zone, as their foreign minister lavrov said, and there are more than a hundred kilometers from the border with the russian federation, isumu and kharkiv fall into this sanitary zone, well, to begin with, it is necessary to make it as difficult as possible to... stay in this city , and i think that they will do it, they will shell kharkiv, if they advance, there is no longer near the border, a little deeper closer to

kharkiv, fortifications should be built, as our military and political leadership, leaders said of the relevant civil-military administrations of the districts there, well, where are the territories of the communities through which this line of defense should pass, if it is built, then beyond these lines, they are unlikely to be able to advance, well, if it is built correctly, yes , as it should be, the first, second, third line, they are interconnected, well, there is a lot that needs to be done so that it is not just that a trench is dug there, it is not a fortification, it is a trench, but explain simply conditions, what should be a normal, adequate line of defense, i don't even want to mention the so-called surovikin line, but here is what it is, so to speak, according to the standards of state admissions companies or commissions. i don’t want to mention the surlykin line, it was built quite competently from the point of view of military engineering, so let’s be fair, as they say, if we built it

the way the russians built it, then it would be very good, it has , which is meant, it should be places for artillery, it should be life-saving pods, forced shelling, where people can to hide, they are so armored, they should be two-story, preferably three-story bunkers, so that on the lower floors you can... store something, well, shells, ammunition, well, medicines, everything, food, everything that is necessary to get long-term defense, so that they are almost, well, almost invulnerable to shelling, from the enemy, it must be built between the first, the second, between, the second, the third and especially after the third, the so-called rocket roads, along which, well, it can be done just lay it, the tractor can drive there, so you can quickly move to any, well, in case... somewhere in some area, in some area, they send the enemy, intensify their offensive actions, it should be, well, of course, they should be connected by moves, moves between themselves, the first with the second, the second with the third, and

there must be a wired communication system established there, because it is not, well, it cannot be silenced by rebami, wired communication is invulnerable to, well, it can only be interrupted by a cable, well, there must be several lines of pomvoka so-called, they must be stretched in order for it to be permanent, permanent communication between units, and of course these bunkers are so-called, that is, firing positions, basic such firing positions, well, as you know, can be compared to a fortress, like a tower on a fortress, so a wall and a tower, this bunker is a tower on a fortress , that is, the logic is about the same, defensive structures, and if it is built like this, it is quite difficult to break through, especially if it is mined between the front... the first line and you can mine between the first and second, but here you have to be very careful and necessarily there should be a map of the minefield so that people do not expose themselves to danger those who

keep defense now we are saying that we are not talking about the russians and not about our armed forces, we are saying that it is written down in general, there are combat statutes, there are textbooks for defensive actions, offensive actions, well, they change there, but the construction of fortifications is almost the same. you know, it has not completely changed, the essence has not changed, the logic has remained the same, it has several lines, they must be connected to each other, positions for artillery, positions for which you can hide forcibly and so on, that is, it must be built like this, and when they go there conversations that dug some ditch, well, this is not a fortification, this is a ditch, look, if we talk about the plan of adequate countermeasures, then we understand that if the russians are entrenched there, well, their key... as you noted, is access to certain artillery fire positions, and this is a huge threat for sumy, for kharkiv and not only, and they want to gain a foothold, so we are aware that

they must be knocked out of there. relevant battles are ongoing, to what extent, so to speak, the use of these or other additional forces is problematic, yes, because we can't expose our reserves either, well, firstly, we have already deployed reserves there, our military leadership said so, secondly, here is such sad news from mr. budanov, well, maybe he said it on purpose, so that there was either a wrong translation, or a wrong example, that we have already used almost all the reserves, although on the other hand we know that they are preparing for... 10 more brigades, they are undergoing combat coordination, that is, how many reserves do we have, well it is certain that the military secret, we can say whether it is enough, not enough , a lot or a little, but it is not about anything, anyway, we will not be able to use other, other words here, we will not be able to name the number for sure, so let's hope that we will have enough in order to to hold the defense, and most importantly, the better the fortification, the less people are needed to hold the defense, this is

also almost obvious, look, but is there a feeling that the enemy can make this also one of the most important offensive lines, so we understand, what is the situation in donetsk region, the situation is very difficult, and rather it is it looked like the enemy would make an effort to make a general advance in the donetsk direction, here we see that they could enter the kharkiv region from the north, and accordingly, whether the enemy would have enough resources, manpower, and equipment to immediately hold several directions, well, of course , offensive actions are not carried out in one place in general, even when we were preparing our offensive action, our partners advised us that it is wrong to attack in one place, well, this is also written in the textbooks, you must have two, three, four directions of attack, and well , some main one, maybe two main ones, some distractions, well, this too, this is a common tactic, it is so well known, will they be able to attack along the entire front line, well, for sure, the russians will not be able to attack actively , what will happen in

kharkiv oblast and sumy oblast, well... judging by the fact that they used a certain number of people there, well , forces and means, then for sure there for now, well, we shouldn't expect some kind of the most powerful, where there is less than in the kupinsky direction, well, for example , well, there on kupinsky we counted, that there were more than 100 thousand, the kupinsky-limansk direction, that's where they are storming, trying to get to the scyla river, the kupinsky nodal river and so on, there are fewer here in two directions than in one on... kuprinsk, well, how can you expect that will there be a main impact? the main blow there can happen if they start to move the troops again, and they do it mainly by rail, and they, well, they have learned to do everything quite quickly, so if they start transporting there, we will see immediately, already send the equipment, then it can be expected that this will be the direction of the main strike or one of the main strikes, and for now it will be such a promotion with an effort to turn the sum into a gray area.

kharkiv, you know, it seems to me, from military logic, then if it so happened that these cities are located not far from the russian, russian border, understanding that to capture them completely or to surround them requires a very large amount of forces and means, then the russians, well, hardly would they begin to do it, considering how many people they have already laid down, how many troops they have concentrated in the eastern direction, but it is quite possible to try to turn these cities from a gray zone into one that is dangerous for living. this will also affect our and the armed forces and, in general , our emotional state and everything, well, we understand this perfectly, so from military logic, well, we don’t need to attack, but i wouldn’t be there, we need to put ourselves in the place of the enemy , in order to better understand its action, i would in any case not attack sumy region and kharkiv region, i would try to get as close as possible and start shelling with artillery, well, in order to inflict maximum damage, and the main strikes are still the south and the east,

it is quite possible that it will be zaporizhia... we don’t know for sure here, they are constantly moving troops along the front line, thus trying to confuse us, where exactly the main strike or main strikes will be strikes, for now , well, in those places where they are already climbing, there they will definitely weaken, for now they will not weaken, it is unlikely that they will do it, other, other places, especially our northern borders, most likely it will be just an attempt to create a humanitarian disaster in big cities, sumakh and kharkov, will succeed them or not, well, it depends on our fortifications, it depends on our number of troops... we can send there in order to hold the defense, well, of course, on the speed of supplying us with weapons from our partners, well, just as much it would still be good to return or raise the issue of anti-aircraft defense again, as if it started to move in the right direction, because any fortification from fap 1500 or fap 300, well, it will not last.