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format, there are even more analytics, even more important topics, even more top guests, foreign experts, inclusion from abroad, about ukraine, the world, the front, society, and also feedback, you can express your opinion on the day of the week for by phone survey, turn on and turn on, verdict with serhii rudenko, every weekday from 20 to 22 at espresso. and now there are three of us, the head of the analytical direction of the ans network, ilyany skhodovsky, came to visit us, panel, we welcome you, good day, you know, we have a lot of questions for you, all mostly related to money, money, money, money, yes, but the first why exactly did we announce this issue, there are forecasts that from july fuel will be more expensive, there will no longer be the same option as last year, when the price was kept stable, it will go up, they even promise... uah 80 per

liter, so what? yes, it's for gasoline, or are these forecasts realistic, no, that is, if someone wants to, and calls himself an expert, and says the price is 80, then he is not an expert, that is, it is absolute stupidity, he simply cannot physically rise to such a size, it is necessary for the price of the world markets oil rose somewhere around 100, 100-10. dollars per barrel of oil, so that we have 80, and even an increase in the excise duty, it adds up to a maximum of five, a maximum of 7 hryvnias, if we only take the initiatives that the government currently has, then let's clarify, so , in the government has an initiative to raise excise taxes, ukrainians have a russian application telegram channel, and accordingly there is a possibility to get a slight shock yesterday evening, because...

gasoline was promised at 80 hryvnias, diesel also at 80 plus, and liquefied gas at least 55, here with what numbers were bombarded by the leaders of ukraine yesterday. well, this is absolute stupidity, well, even i don’t know how to comment, that is, let’s look at today’s price, well, let’s take it conditionally speaking, the price of gasoline is 60, that is , it is an increase of uah 20 in the cost structure, that is, if we take it, that is, it should be the general growth of oil on the world markets, and now, on the contrary, it is falling, that is , it has dropped from $90 in the last two months to $81, and taking into account the news coming from the united states of america. even the death of this iranian leader there and so on, on the contrary, it definitely means that there will be no war, and thus the situation in the middle east, which affects the world price, has already calmed down so much, people have understood that there will not be any upheavals in the near future, this the first moment, therefore thus the growth to

conditional $100-110 per barrel of oil there is simply physically impossible, there is no reason, china's economy is clearly not showing any recovery and there is some strong growth, maybe... well, in the usa, despite forecasts that reserves will fall on the contrary they grow, other players enter the market, so the price will remain at the level of 80 dollars per barrel of oil, which in principle satisfies both those who sell and those who consume, maybe speculators there are not very satisfied, they would like more volatility, but in general it's just more of a stable price that will hold for the next six months, so this fact... the rate falls, yes it rose, but let's see how much it rose from 38 to 40, well, it's 0.5 there, well, no, 0.5 there 3- 4%, that is, the growth is absolutely not so critical from the point of view of price growth there or something else, but

in terms of the structure there, if vat, it remains at the same level, so far only initiatives, excise duty, it is growing, but the growth it is in the subovarian structure somewhere around 20% by 10%, 2-3%, it’s somewhere around, well 60, and there is a maximum of 65 prices, where does 80 come from, well, a maximum of 5 hryvnias, huh, that is, it will not be given for me in principle, well, give a schedule, let’s say, well, i can say, why not 100, let’s give 1000 there, i don’t know, well , absolutely, we do not scare you that it will be 80 and then you will be happy that the growth will stop at the 65 mark, i think that this is the russian epso, they really like the rejection in principle. not only for the sake of it, but such painkillers for ukrainians about the fact that the dollar is at 70, 50, 70, the price of gasoline will rise, there is inflation, everything else, all this, as we see, it is not come true, and even the blows to the energy,

which are there, were painful enough, they are still, despite the blackout, given the last year there, for example, in winter, it is still much better now. than, for example, it was a year ago, in winter. ok, then let 's look at other numbers, i mean this idea of ​​raising the military levy from 15% to five, the percentages tell us nothing, the deputies from the finance committee are telling us somewhere so quietly that we need 500-600, well , billions, and billions, there would still be somewhere to collect, and this is such an initiative as it? will look in practice from percentages in reality, translate? well, look, if we consider trade, that is, it depends on what this entrepreneur does, because growth up to 5% is just right for the enterprise, i don’t like it very much, but the ministry of finance is very often called heitmansovo the biggest enemy for

entrepreneurs, well, look at the initiatives of the ministry of finance, all the negative initiatives over the past 2-3 years that have been, they were from the ministry of finance, that is, the ministry of finance and... how come yatsenyuk was the prime minister, but those the initiatives that he led, they were just related to big business, he increased the rent for big business, the military levy, it affected absolutely everyone, and please note that the military levy, well now all

taxes go to the army, but then the military levy did not go to the army, it went to the general budget, it could be spent anywhere, it did not lead to an increase in spending directly on the army, but these... 5%, if we take trade, then trade, for example, if it is not piecemeal, then wholesale trade, trade there is more like that volumes, then in principle this percentage is not such, it is covered. margin, that is, it will definitely lead to an increase in prices, it will reduce competition in relation to large retail chains that do not have this tax, that is, i have this feeling, it is a constant effort at the expense of entrepreneurs to solve the problem, now there is such a group working under the ministry of finance, who doesn't like the software registrar of labor calculations, it's not so much about taxes, but it's some kind of class, class hatred towards entrepreneurs, all initiatives on... aimed at hitting small businesses in

ukraine in any other way, that is, at the beginning of the war, it was a good decision, but you can in principle criticize it there, it is a transition to 2% for fops, cancellation of fines , cancellation of the eus, such are all the pluses, and now we are rolling back, returning inspections, fines, running into the software registrar of settlement operations, because those initiatives that sound there will actually lead to the fact that all enterprises will be forced to buy or a special a phone device that wants, according to the ministry of finance, or simply force everyone to switch to cash registers, which used to be stationary cash registers, well , returning to taxes, again, a military levy, instead of paying 5% , if we talk to the third group, will pay accordingly 10%. as. if it is not yet critical for services, well, services are really critical for production, then

for production and for trade it is already a serious blow, i'll be honest, i don't understand such initiatives, in general, if we consider initiatives, if you are looking for money, the first thing they look for is the question of not burdening the own producer, but the own producer currently has some problems, problems with the fact that it has worsened... supply logistics, power outages , employees are taken away, mobilized, the probability of a missile hitting your premises, and these are problems with the fact that your external counterparties refuse to cooperate with you , worsen the conditions, because you are at war in the country, and it is better not to do business with you, so it to date is falling, then it is a question of what the interest rates on loans are inflation. and accordingly, the loan is 20%, that is, everyone is cut off from any lending, survive as

you want, the 579 program is being reduced today, that is, the number of those who will receive loans is decreasing, at the same time they lend to agriculture and trade, all producers are not actually credited , there they are only 13% of the total assets, and here they still increase taxes, but there is another way, you see, if not so, then how would it be if take according to priorities. the first thing that comes is import taxation. taxation of imports, in particular, there are two ways. the first method is an additional import duty imposed on all goods, except for military and humanitarian goods. everything, it evens out the internal situation, because you have a lot of internal problems that increase your cost price, and you can't produce, that's why only trade develops and that's it. let's see what is developing in our economy. this is trade and agriculture, agriculture, because a grain corridor was built for them and they finally have the opportunity to export their

products abroad and trade in order to sell imports that are brought into the country, but we have a negative trade balance for last year of 26 billion dollars, minus 26 billion dollars , a domestic producer, it gradually dies out or transfers its production to other countries, in particular to europe, or simply stops due to impossibility. to work in ukraine, and if we do not take at least some steps to level the situation, then we simply will not to have an economy at all after the end of the war, the investments of the military-industrial complex, well, they are growing little by little, but even now it can be stated that our manufacturers are not fully loaded, they complain, they say give us at least if you do not have money to buy our products , then let 's sell abroad, they say no, no, no, how come, we will sell? abroad, i.e. let’s somehow twist it out, i.e. this is again the problem that we

do not have the appropriate download in this direction in order to to produce products, and here in the totality of all this, therefore, the first tax is on imports, and the second direction is excise taxes, but not on fuel, but primarily on such harmful things as tobacco and alcohol, and we must also not forget that , that we were giving a breakdown of how much the budget is losing due to the inefficient... work of the economic security bureau, because they don't close this scheme, they just two weeks ago or three weeks ago they finally started to fight somehow when blinkin was coming , they... staged a performance about inspections of illegal tobacco production, i don't know how it will end, because this has never been the case before, this show was, is and will be, that is, when the americans come, they know the information, the guys say, you have budget losses here, a billion dollars, what are you, what are you are doing in order to close things so that these losses do not occur, and accordingly bp decided to stage

such a show, how will it end, let's see, but the problem is serious, the same, for example, with the illegal sale of gasoline, again the losses are significant , there is not a billion dollars, but it is hundreds of millions dollars of the loss of the state budget, and they are selling mimakas, and they are selling, let's say, other ways to minimize, again, the pressure on the americans on us, let's do something about it, regarding imports, if we would expect additional, own income from imports, then it is also necessary to make some kind of mechanism for... to ensure that everything is controlled, on the one hand there must be control, and on the other hand, where there is stricter control, there is always a threat of additional corruption, because sometimes it is more profitable to pay somewhere and enter more than do it all officially, is there already a vision how it can be done? well, this is a question again for the bureau of economic security, which is now authorized to check, including violations of customs

legislation, and we do not see, do you remember when zelenskyi, now we often... sum up the results of 5 years ago , what was done, do you remember at the beginning, what were the raids on the customs officials, what kind of car do you have, what kind of phone do you have, you are all corrupt, now i will simply check you and restore order at the customs office, right , for 5 years, nothing has changed, corruption, as it was at customs, is the same, which means that the corruption streams that... were, they simply went into other pockets, there is no other reason why they are not touched, there was only internal struggle, you remember, this is a show about it, and now we will deprive these not bad customs officers, not customs officers, but smugglers, of their citizenship, and this is how it ended, now we

are slapping them like this, show off again, vystakha has not ended with anything, but it is possible to look at two or two points. somehow now measure in time of war, i i mean, the problem of filling the budget is precisely the fact that there was a huge amount of black business, but now we have a huge one, there is no need here, we never again have a shadow economy, more shadow was in up to a third or more than a third, as a matter of fact for now, i mean, it's increasing, decreasing, staying the same, that's what i wanted to know about... are changing, uh, and due to the fact that the economy is shrinking, and the shadow economy is also shrinking, for example, recently investigation about control, fame oh god, they didn't vote, they failed, but now it's fine, but besides the bureau of economic security, can anyone else take such

actions to reduce this shadowy part of the economy, because what are our people telling us? taxes are for our defense, foreign borrowing will not be used to buy weapons, that's right, that is, the more taxes we collect, the better off our defenders will be, that's all, there is direct dependence, i absolutely agree, here we still have two bodies that are directly executors who collect taxes, this is the tax and customs, uh, well, i just have a question, well, what do you expect there if the people there are temporary, the head of tax is temporary, the head of customs under... the head of the bureau of economic security is temporary, we have temporary people throughout the vertical, performing duties, we have five or six managers who actually manage this country, that is, the vertical of power is destroyed, the institutions do not work, you are not responsible for anything, you are the head of the tax department, but you do not have the right to give orders to some departments directly, because

these orders you are only performing a function to sign, they will take it down from the president's office and you must sign this order. the vertical of power is completely destroyed, as a result , the responsibility is completely on the office, well , first of all, this is a global issue, now the office of the president and directly, it is actually under the guise of the president, state institutions are formed and destroyed, including those responsible for tax collection, this is it possible to stop this process, what can we do now here are the bills, there are two bills on reforming the bureau of economic security. customs and tax, they are needed to accept in order to make a reatvistation, in order to provide. the second point is that if you have a manager, excuse me, the office of the president, directs you, then it is necessary here if you change the office. the head of the president's office, you change the management model in the state, then something can be changed, if it does not change, then what can be done, people change, but in fact the head remains the

same, he accordingly has his goals, which he achieves, then the romans they said that all roads lead to yeermak, or did i forget something, everyone the roads go to the president's office, once again, when he said about five or six managers, i would advise you to look at the constitution, that we generally have three branches of government that are independent, and there cannot be five. managers to run the country, in order to negotiate international aid, we have the ministry of foreign affairs, we have the ministry of defense, we have mps who have to carry out appropriate diplomacy in order to negotiate with the same mps in the european union, the united states of america , to provide assistance, that is, here we are let's come to the point that the fact that there are not enough funds now is the result of the crumbling of the institution, and as a result of the crumbling of the institution they don't work, and maybe it 's political and economic, for us in june what... is to start joining the european union, we and nato should ask, with such a model, where the institutions are multiplied by ermak and equal to zero, we

can start, will they close their eyes, because we have a war, let's put it this way, they will hope that the law is what is in europe, in the european union , the war will end, elections will be held, the government will change, and then, accordingly, so far, they are not looking at the formal implementation of indicators, these are formal... indicators regarding the voting of some laws, some steps, and so on, which means that they tick boxes and wait when this vertical will finally be destroyed, because they so just as the americans see it, so do the europeans, they see this certain usurpation of power and the formation of such a rigid vertical of power, which in fact does not correspond to the constitution, yes, but nevertheless, in the west, we often actually even this in their power read, they consider the current one the government and... irmak is quite effective in what is happening, not always, but such theses also sound in them, so either they pretend that everything is okay, or well, look, well, this is

diplo, well, that's the question , what should you do, well, as in our country, during the war , we are limited, we are limited in criticizing the government, that is, they understand perfectly well that in the case of an attack on the top leadership of the state, it can lead to the fact that. .. it will simply play into the enemy's hand and as a result they try to choose their words very carefully and speak very carefully so that no one accuses them of being paid for by kremlin propaganda. thank you, thank you for this meaningful conversation, yelyane skhodovskyi was with us, the head of the analytical direction of the ants network, and roman and i also say goodbye on this, have a peaceful, safe day, take care of yourself and do not ignore the air warning signals, in a few minutes the ether will continue khrystyna parubiy with news. stay with us, petrol trimmers are so

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call we summarize the informative morning in ukraine on the air of spresso news. khrystyna perubiy works in the studio. three people died, seven were wounded, these are the consequences of enemy shelling of kharkiv about an hour ago. one more person are looking for about 10 explosions rang out in the city. one of them walked around a civilian enterprise that is engaged in printing. a large-scale fire broke out there, and the city's transport infrastructure was also damaged. to

a utility company.