and here it is completely unprincipled, whether it is benzina ivanishvili, he was politically technologically led to make such a reversal, whether it happened on a call from moscow, in brussels, washington are convinced of the latter, you see, russia is now banally rubbing its hands, co-speakers of the prime minister of georgia iraklii gariboshvili, now, dugin, i don't know, zakharova, karasin, putin, lukashenko. that is, you understand, that is, the last statements of ierakli kobokhidze, they should be discussed at all, it is already a matter of hygiene, not informational, in principle hygiene, when he says that ukraine fell as a state after the 14th year, joined the global war party, without mentioning the russian federation in their speeches, they are really trolling, they are really mocking, they think that they are stronger, at least like the gops in the yard, well, i just can’t it is necessary to react to it, that is

why the situation here is absolutely determined, as absolutely determined, we will come to armenia because we will set an example to georgia, discussing the processes of imitation of nikol pashinyan's reversal, well, this is an interesting question, yes, that in a situation where armenia is looking for itself allies in the west, georgia, which has always had these allies and help, with the help of these allies, armenia could also be such, i would say, a geopolitical patron. it is losing before our eyes, well, it is not losing, this loss is being formalized, once i also repeat, when i was asked whether georgia can become a locomotive for armenia, which returned to the south caucasus after the restoration of the territorial integrity of azerbaijan, i always said that georgia can become a locomotive to join the so-called ssr, ussr 15 or 2:0, it is absolutely now on...

a logical situation: the chinese story, for example, with the construction of the deep-sea port of anaklia 40 km from ochamchira, where the russian federation partially transfers the naval base from novorossiysk. this is absolutely also russian history from the point of view of defining side by side confrontation in this global war. and when we talk about azerbaijan or armenia, those regimes there were at least honest. azerbaijan. constantly does not join, constantly barrages, strategically endures, but solves its issue of recovery territorial integrity, including in the system of trade and pressure with moscow, you know this topic, you know it well, armenia honestly gives signals that we are still in captivity, help us, we are in captivity, we, we are vassals of the russian federation, we guilty of this, not guilty on the subject of karabakh, less so, but georgia, article 70 of some constitution remains that we... in nato and in the eu, and we

see such, let's say, such a geopolitical equilibrist, that's all, that's why it's annoying, but i emphasize, there's nothing strange, we logically came to the point where now the same the media people, the expert sites that we had during the 15th and 17th years, it seems that they used to get visas there, they would say different examples, but i smiled crookedly, and now they are angrily telling how georgia turned around so suddenly, where there is no suddenness. absolutely not, these are logical processes, it just wants to turn around and cancel this path to the eu by the hands of the eu or by the hands of washington, and on the american track she almost succeeded. and tell me, do you believe in this idea that the russians promised bidzina ivannishvili a confederation with abkhazia, southern ossetia? no, i don't believe it, i don't think something, whether i believe it or not, i know that there is no such thing, because a conditional cossack, a conditional cossack, let's call him that, although why conditional, he

kept his... position of pre-nistrovizer of all movements , if he suddenly went to the kremlin with this proposal now in order to play along with georgian dreams to win the elections, those who decide this issue will not accept him in the kremlin, they have already released mr. karasin, mr. karasin, he has the karasin format bashidze in regulation with georgia fell apart because mr. zorab abashidze appeared no... just an old warrior, but also a wise warrior, he came out of this format of negotiations, understanding, knowing what was happening around his country, so as not to spoil his own wing, but now they launched karasin, who says that there is something in in abkhazia they say, or in georgia they think, well, it's all emotions, now, for example, the subject of joining the samachavlo region, the so-called south ossetia, is being raised there, and with abkhazia, well, there is none there at all.

well, rather, they make political-technological intrusions in order to at least somehow gain control or support the policy of the georgian dream. the russian federation can form a confederation or three entities. somewhere in tskhinvali, sukhumi and tbilisi in the single project of the ussr project one and a half or 2:0, when it already gets everything from georgia, what it wants, when it is categorically convinced that there will be no u-turn, then it can, let's say and, let's say yes, this topic will come up, they will tell us here in bbilisia that they, look how we successfully solved the issue between iran and azerbaijan regarding karabakh peacefully. you understand, that is, he was already captured not only armenia got into it, but also azerbaijan, which maybe, well, promised something and so on, he does not mind sitting down and enduring it, because, well , oliham oliev, as well as gruzdiyev's well-known pistol, for his own population for one or two,

at least, the least political periods he will have the restoration of territorial integrity, this will be the biggest motivator for society to support him, then they can sit. will in no way contradict the processes taking place in georgia, the turks do not even bother, the turks actually summoned heraklion grybashvili, give kabakhidze a prime minister to istanbul, it seems, who promised them that even with such a reversal, all highways that are critically important for turkey in europe, from azerbaijan through georgia, because the transcaucasia project is impossible without georgia, but they are not will fall under some, let's say, from the russian federation side, and the russians will initially not touch either bakutbilisirs or other logistics projects, which are critical for the region and not only, you understand, but anaklia must be built for two years, you understand, they are preparing, they is preparing even for failure, this

kremlin office, it is preparing even for failure on the ukrainian front, but having central asia in its assets and the so-called imperial project in human logic for... they are doing everything for this, and that is why it is so nervous now reaction regarding tbilisi, thank you, mr. volodymyr, volodymyr kobchak, head of the south caucasian branch of the center for the study of the army, conversion and disarmament, and now to the middle east with mykhailo yakubovich, orientalist, candidate of historical sciences, research associate of the orientalist branch of freiburg university. congratulations, mr. michael, good evening, so israel said that they are ready to receive. the peace plan proposed yesterday by the president of the united states, joseph biden, is a three-phase plan that has as the first phase a ceasefire and the release of most of the israeli hostages held by the terrorist organization hamas, as well as

the withdrawal of israeli forces from most of the gas sector, but so far that we see the fighting continuing, the negotiations continuing, and the israeli leaders they say that the war in... in any case will not end until hamas is destroyed. so what do you think is going on? a long political game is taking place, since the situation in palestine and israel has already become a factor in the american elections, too. we see that already today the minister of defense of israel stated at a staff meeting that they are preparing for the gas sector, a new government, an alternative to hamas, obviously, this is some kind of option, like with... the west bank of the jordan river, another question is who will be these moderates forces to represent, that is, this is not the first attempt at a truce in these months, well, here it is clear that the democrats have a very large lobby, which i will not call pro-palestinian under any

circumstances, but rather let's call it that, but the lobby of some such left-wing pacifism, in in this case, what a vocal ... outcry against aid to israel, so here we see a long process where, before the various summits that should take place now, president biden decided to play on the soil of the global south, so he proposed such a plan, in which allegedly all the parties must be satisfied, although you can think, without biden's proposals , no one would have even guessed that, say... it was possible to take, just change everyone, take, just leave, well, what, what, what will happen then, that is, this plan, he does not foresee , what will be next for gaza, he talks there about some kind of restoration, about international aid,

well, that is, it is like the introduction of peacekeepers, that is , some large contingents will be stationed there, so there was such an attempt too, i think, this is an attempt to feel the possibilities of peace again. but by no means complete peacekeeping, all the more so there is the issue with yemen, which continues to launch drones there on ailat, the americans have not been able to lead. there is the situation with the houthis, there is the issue of lebanon, where are the drones flying from, the issue of hezbollah, that is, the factor of hamas - this is one of the few factors, and that is why these proposals of biden, they look like they can be accepted as a certain course for negotiations, but for now israel, even rafah did not give, to whom to give, here is the question, that is, he did not leave rafah, there again ... blocked point pass, and it seems to me that in the near future we should expect this plan there, that here are the parties from

such and such a day, a complete truce, a complete cease-fire, it seems to me that this is hardly possible, israel, despite the serious pressure that is exerted on this tepid, and and hamas needs certain guarantees of preserving itself as a structure, but gaza without hamas, hamas is an option, he will not sign up for it. it is obvious, but this is also a good question, if there is no such plan, what will happen next? what follows will be a long war of attrition, a war that will to continue until there are some changes in the united states, and in the united states we see, i will emphasize once again, the question, let's call it the palestinian question, because it is formulated that way, by many intellectuals, we see protests in the university'. at the same time, we can see the significant involvement of various europeans, so it has already become a factor in their policy,

just like russia's war against ukraine, and until there is a clear answer to the question of what to do next with the gas sector specifically, who will be in charge there, after all two million the population that moves here and there, a significant civil and humanitarian catastrophe, to which... well, it is difficult to turn a blind eye, actually, when there is such an answer, then something will change, for now it seems to me that these are just another such statements about ceasefires, which we have heard about, for example, even in the case of russian aggression against ukraine, that is , the parties are not ready for this, because the parties believe that there are chances to fight further and they have the strength, even hamas, we can see very well, was preparing before this war, there is a significant stockpile of weapons, and in force, and there is a threat of escalation from the side

hezbollah, from the yemeni side, and that is, they have a certain cover, they still have the resources to fight further, but they do not really count on civilian casualties, and that is why, in fact , i would not expect such a one-time truce has become, this conflict has gone too far, which has been going on for decades, so that... just so it could be resolved by biden's plan or something else, that is, in my opinion, the war will continue all summer, all fall, and probably beyond. well, you say, as zvihanykbi, adviser to the prime minister of israel, says, who said the war would be at least until the end of the year. maybe so, that is, this is a realistic forecast, it shows a certain position of netanyahu, i will once again confirm what the minister of defense of israel says about the plan. for gas, i.e. they will clear the gas from hamas, realistically, or now as

the israeli troops imagine it, and then they will propose some other solutions, the only question is to what extent the lebanese factor, here the hezbollah factor, will be involved, how will all the others react , because there is a significant internal political crisis in israel itself, trying to shake up the issue with the hostages, there is significant opposition to... netanyahu, who is demanding a ceasefire, that is, give us an immediate ceasefire, hamas returns all the hostages, but hamas does not want to do that, it does not want to just return everyone, he needs guarantees, guarantees are needed for the crisis, guarantees are needed for the non-palestinians who live there , hamas wants some guarantees for itself, hamas in many ways fights for the preservation of power, hamas does not just fight for something there, like everyone else, it is military. political organization, for what an important issue it is, and he wants to represent palestine, maybe there in

a new face, but here, well, the negotiations that took place with hamas in the israelis, we see several rounds there were in cairo, so there were certain concessions, but no more than that, that's why i see that there are no prerequisites for a long-term truce here, despite all the statements, well, i understand that... president biden would really like to end this conflict before the election, right, because it's a big problem for him, for he would like to have a summit now italy, then the summit of switzerland. will the global south raise the issue of palestine in switzerland, it will certainly raise it, even president zelensky in singapore today had to declare that we recognize israel and palestine, we want to be, to some extent, peacemakers, even mediators there, we are in favor of a humanitarian solution, we tried humanitarian to direct gas aid, we do not associate hamas with all

palestinians, that is, these are statements that were probably first about... on palestinian topics, if compared with zelensky's sample october-november 2023, that is , we have to play on this field, remember how yasir farafat came to kyiv, remember the diplomatic relations, how he even received awards, the order of yaroslav the wise from the hands of kuchma, it was all like the organization of the , in fact, palestine recognized the ukrainian state in 1992, that is, there are a lot of them. tateba, which can be raised, and on this field both biden and all other forces have to play, at least, declaratively, the elections in the european union, where the palestinian issue is already becoming a factor, the elections in the united states, china, which is very radical here, that is, simply what is happening, the authoritarian regimes,

in fact, created this problem in many ways , supporting hamas, shifted it onto the shoulders of the west. and the west, many forces in the west believed that the west is really to blame for this, because it supposedly supports one side, and here it has to be dealt with by some diplomatic, military, other methods, again cultivating this complex of guilt before the global rooster and trying do to him some certain concessions, but the more these concessions will actually be, the more china, russia, all others and... will use these windows of opportunity, let's blame the west for the genocide of someone else, let's put all the blame entirely on the west, that is, somewhere many circles in the west they understand this, even among the republicans, by the way, because the same lynsey graham said that israel needs a victory over hamas, if this is not

foreseen, then no truce will work, but... other forces of a liberal direction with a pacifist such declarative rhetoric, somewhere, well, they either do not understand this, or they deliberately play on this field, and therefore i will emphasize once again, these windows of opportunity through which the west will continue to cultivate a guilt complex, including in russian aggression against ukraine, and they remain open, although , given this sanctions policy, ineffective. there are different parallel exports and everything else, maybe this is already a little from another topic, but unfortunately, this topic will continue to be pedaled by many people and remain in such, you know, one of the permanent conflicts, but from which there are a lot of both beneficiaries and victims, another issue is that its beneficiaries are far from

the conflict zone itself. well, in principle, if you want to sum up our conversation, you can say that it is... rather, biden's peace plan is a plan about intentions, not about real possibilities. yes, this is a certain declaration, it sounds good, but it does not take into account any territorial issues or others, and if, for example, many americans declared that two states are necessary, that is, two peoples, two states, then here it is about a full-fledged a palestinian state is out of the question, and even some allies of the united states, which ... the states there want very much to reconcile with israel, the same saudi arabia itself uses as a kind of battering ram in the region, which it often has been, will not be happy with this, that is it is a good memorandum, but it lags behind the current historical events, and it is a problem that countries of this level have to not create history, but rather chase after

it and extinguish the conflict when it was already in full swing, not without their help. policies and ignoring certain threats. thank you sincerely, mr. mykhailo, mykhailo yakubovich, orientalist, candidate of historical sciences, researcher at the department of forensic sciences of the university of freiburg in germany. we will now talk about another important event next week: elections to the european parliament, one might say, elections that can change the face of europe. with us are oleksandr golubov, a ukrainian analyst and journalist, he is in germany, denis kolesnyk, a political commentator, he is in france. congratulations, mr. oleksandr. congratulations mr. denis, now i hope we will see ours interlocutors, you know that in fact there is now such a struggle between narratives, the european narrative, and... so hello, i would like to know where you are going, mr. denys, you see, you hear us, good day, of course, here is mr. we already have denys, so what,

let's start with the fact that before these elections, the ultra-right is largely united, it's true, and it's such a surprise when we see marine le pen and george melanie at the same time, in the same interiors, the interiors of the fox party congress, and what this association can lead to those who what were the competitors recently? well, look, first of all, it is worth noting that in france nationale led by bardela, in fact marine lupin, will get more than 30%, most likely in the elections, according to my calculations, it can be somewhere like that, so in france, so somewhere it is even possible they will receive 33-35%. this is more than twice as much as the pro-presidential party and more than the left party, the socialist party, and as for the unification

, it is very interesting, marin, as far as i know, she basically spoke about orbán's idea, if you talk about it in a positive way, but it seems the leader of the italian party spoke , she did not give a clear answer and it is still not clear here. in transport, there is not always such a connection as we would like, as we know from our own experience, that is why mr. denys spoke now about the gap between. alternative for germany and marine le pen's party in the european parliament, which is also such a sensitive moment, because marine le pen's supporters in

the european parliament refused to cooperate with the alternative for germany party, after one of the leaders of this party actually spoke with a pro-nazi such propaganda, this is also an interesting such moment, here we have mr. oleksandr golbo. i congratulate you, mr. oleksandr. so, what do you think, is the split that took place between marine le pen and the alternative for germany, the political death of the alternative for germany, or on the contrary its new beginning in new, i would say, interiors? ah, it is definitely too early to talk about political death, ah, because, let's say this, the alternative for germany, in my humble opinion, has now reached its maximum, so to speak, in germany itself. voices of protestors who it is now at the moment, at least it can afford to collect, using

the agenda, tariff increases, well , general populist slogans, which are usually used by right-wing populists, in the west, that is, and somehow, relatively speaking, the alternative for germany was similar to ... which there was the national front, and then the national assembly of marine le pen, that is, a party that is not us, we cannot call it fascist or nazi there, because it does not exist in any way, it is a right-wing extremist, there are already many more people from, so to speak speak right-wing views of very dubious quality, but somehow this party tries to be, i would say, one that does not ... arouses disgust in most voters, it is clear that most voters are left-leaning, they do not take their inspiration, but at least they do not think they are there, conditionally speaking, straight

-forward, neo-fascists like, and once upon a time well-known golden dawn in greece, that is, who actually almost joined the greek parliament, and now they are an alternative alternative for germany, having reached, in my opinion, such a peak, because we now see that support for this party reaches tens of percent in germany, in local elections in the east of the country, they can even claim at least leading positions in local councils, that is, this is quite a big jump compared to what it started with this party, but... it is already clear that this is a certain ceiling, probably more people will not become its supporters, because usually, even if people are radicalized, they would rather go, say, to the left party, and...

the spectrum to some leftists or to a new star of the left political left of the political spectrum, although now it is difficult to say whether she is left or right sarivagen knigt, who founded her own party, and all this, so to speak, pushes an alternative for germany to understand who they are, because it is simple to say that we populists and use any failure of the government to... add points to themselves and by fueling it a little with pro-putin rhetoric, it is impossible to grow any further, and at the same time this party has gathered a huge number of people who are, well, frank fascists, that is, it is not for nothing that this party now she is being watched, so to speak, as they say, but in fact the german agency for the protection of the constitution, well, it is almost like the ukrainian sbu, which deals with extremists, islamists and people... who

actually want to destroy the state order in germany, that's it now it is clear that these people who are in the party, they want to show and give it the direction that it should follow, and that actually happened, here are these uses of nazi symbols of nazi, let's say words that are very similar to nazi slogans, and gestures, which are very similar to zigzagging. they demonstrate that there are radicals in this party who want to make it a german counterpart of the same golden age, and it seems to me that the reaction of the french, french colleagues, so to speak, reflects this understanding and vision of what is now - and the alternative for germany lies in such a question of self-responsibility, who they are and who they are not, and the attempt to put pressure on them was precisely for that

reason, because i think... that the national assembly of marine le pen does not want to be unacceptable to her own voters. considering the long history of relations between france and france and germany, no one wants to have german, de facto neo-nazis as partners, because even a french nationalist is still primarily french. and from... accordingly, he will definitely not be very happy if he sees that marine le pen's partners raise national gestures and so on and so on, talk about how bad migrants are, how good putin is, please. this is already quite a sensitive topic, which seems to me, again, i am not an expert in french politicians, but i guess it's something that 's too sensitive, it's sensitive for the french

voters, and so accordingly... with the alternative for germany, they'd like nothing to do with it, at least the version that gets radicalized and turns into de - a de facto neo-nazi party, the risk of which is already there, but again, we will see it in the near future, because it seems to me that this election cycle is about to start in germany, or rather it has already started with the first round , well... the beginning of local elections, in particular in the east germany, now there will be elections to the european parliament, but all this is for german politics, it is primarily a warm-up before the main one, before the elections to the bundestag, which are waiting for us soon, and actually how they will position themselves, the alternative for germany will position itself precisely on these elections, it seems to me, will determine whether this party will become truly radical, whether it

will still try... and i don't know if it is possible at all, but it will still try to preserve this, at least the mask of decency, which is still a plus -minus trying to save theirs french colleagues, but in principle we can assume that if an alternative for germany appears in the new composition of the european parliament, well , it seems obvious to me that it will appear there, you and i will watch for the emergence of a new kind of... . there are already parties that are ready to become partners of the alternative for germany, and these are parties that have never been far-right, and it turns out that now they will be far-right and far-right, ugh, and look, if i am not mistaken, representatives of the alternative for germany already in the european parliament, they are i mean, if they keep the mandates,

they just joined other factions. they were kicked out anyway, but here it is.