dmytro zhaimai, executive director of the ukrainian center for security and cooperation, was on our air and we talked about the latest events on the russian-ukrainian front and the plans of the russian federation regarding its possible further actions on ukrainian soil, both strategic and tactical plans. now we will literally break for a few minutes, but i ask you to stay with us, do not switch, because you and i still have important dialogues ahead. the verdict with serhiy rudenko from now on in a new two-hour format, even more analytics, even more important topics, even more top guests, foreign experts, inclusion from abroad, about ukraine, the world, the front, society, and also feedback, you can express your opinion on the bad day with the help of a phone survey, switch on and switch on, verdict with serhii rudenko, every weekday from 20:00 to 22:00 at espresso. congratulations! you, this is svoboda live

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of the russian federation against ukraine. your place is waiting for you. the light remains enabled for dinner - what you love. a warm bed is made, there will be walks, swings, and bathing, they are waiting for you on your street, at school, in your church, because in your house they see dreams about you, you are always in front of their eyes, they cry for you, they pray for you, we

didn't give up because we knew you were already somewhere nearby, half the battle is knowing how hard it is to win, and we will do everything to hug you as soon as possible, so when you are in... when we are together, we are more than family , we, the nation united around you, continue the politclub program on the espresso tv channel, vitaly portykov, our interlocutor volodymyr kopchak, head of the center's south caucasian branch, is with you. of

army research, conversion and disarmament. congratulations, mr. volodymyr. greetings, dear viewers, greetings, greetings, how do you hear? yes, it's okay. so, let's try to understand what is happening after the georgian parliament overcame, quite predictably, by the way, president solome zorobishvili's veto of the law on foreign agencies, the so-called law on foreign influence. how is the situation changing, and what will happen at all in the future? well, look, the situation... is absolutely according to plan, according to the strategy of the georgian authorities, it is said that they are confident of victory, which in their logic consists in the fact that they will actually stop or formalize the reversal of georgia from the euro-atlantic and european course of the country, if we take a further retrospective, which will be, now... there will

formally be absolutely lawsuits to the constitutional court, which are completely under the control of ivanishvili's abyss, but there are no things that would repealed or withdrew... withdrawing this bill is now impossible, the protest is consistently preparing for further confrontation, and we are gradually coming to a paradigm when the actual protest will go beyond the scope of repealing this law, because this is no longer a task that can be accomplished, and transitions to the format on october 27, when the elections will actually take place, the authorities will definitely have to falsify them, and now... a political superstructure is being formed, we hope that it will be the only political force, the face, let's say, of the protest, and the protest will already stand up a stolen choice from this formal political force and from the georgian society, which does not want

to return to the soviet union, but wants to continue the course to europe, we are now observing this process, i am absolutely convinced that the government. did everything with her own hands, i would say so, i would say so, politically technologically, that she will definitely have to steal the election, she will have to be falsified, and how the street will react to it, how the political superstructure will react to it, we will watch it, soloma zorobishvili, the president, the president of georgia, she clearly formulated further by the end of october, the paradigm will be internalized. of political life in the country, this word referendum, that is, there are two lines of the referendum: votes are actually being collected to hold a classic plebiscite, but the authorities will not allow it to be held institutionally, but the opposition forces eventually try

to unite into a single platform so that the actual parliamentary elections on october 27 of this year took place in the format of a de facto referendum for the soviet union. for returning, or for continuing the country's european course. and how can it be combined the opposition in a situation where solome horobishvili looks like such an informal leader of this resistance, but at the same time we know how she is treated in the party of the united national movement of former president mikheil saakashvili, by the way, zarobishvili herself did not even pardon saakashvili for after that verdict, which was approved to him, after he was in prison, and he is not going to do it yet, by the way, so you... the question is, can there be any real agreements between the opposition parties before these elections, we can just hope but i constantly repeat one, in my opinion , the most important thesis: the government , by creating this reversal of the country with its own hands,

made it impossible for the opposition, including salom zorobishvili, what i am talking about, until this measure for the second adoption of the ukraine law , it was impossible for itself . it is now impossible to imagine any unification processes in this scattered rosyna opposition, which does not unite even during the shooting, now it is impossible, from what i know and i can say quite firmly, these are real political forces from georgia with the rating is a maximum of six, these are six surnames, and now they are united, they say that giorgii gakharia of the party for georgia has a special opinion, but less so... what the government did, the government did its own thing, broke its winning paradigm, when for more than 10 years, she explained to the georgian society that either we or the bloody regime of nations, nationals, saakashvili and so on. now we have a situation where, for example, the protest is not going to free mikheil saakashvili from

the vivamedi clinic, where he is de facto in prison now the only national movement, which during saakashvili's stay in prison has split into... into two political forces and the leaders of these two disunited forces, they are already showing their consent, let's say, to some unification processes. solomy zorobishvili says that she will not join any of the parties, but will leave it, making it clearer that she will leave the institution of the presidency of georgia behind her, let it be with ceremonial functions for a possible revolutionary scenario, i would even say so radically that if it suddenly happens in some way there was a change of power. the constitution of the president, which could be able to legalize the new georgian government abroad, because we have already moved on from the format of foreign agents or not foreign agents, but how this political superstructure will be formed, how it will start to live, how it will create communication with

the leaders student and not only protests from below, well, we will look into this, in my opinion, this is the biggest problem, because now... if someone came out and said that let's unite around mikheil saakashvili and around the united national movement party, he would just got in the way protest, and everyone understands this, including mikheil saakashvili, who is not calling to go and free him from the clinic, that is, there are very interesting processes here, and this is understood by the government, which , unfortunately, bets on violent crackdowns, bets on intimidation, that is for example, literally on this night the office of the united national movement in georgia was burned down, and the authorities believe that they have put the opposition on a certain fork, as they say in chess, because if everyone now supports the united national movement publicly, they will say, look this... nationals from the past, if not, do not support, then this is already a certain split in the opposition, so they act brazenly, that is

, in principle, everything is logical here, they indicated it quite clearly. well, by the way, this is reminiscent of the first weeks of the ukrainian maidan in 2014-14, when, on the one hand, politicians and activists wanted to say that yulia tymoshenko should be freed, on the other hand, this was not perceived by ordinary protest participants, who believed that this was not the main goal now, and the main goal now is for... the authorities to listen to the demands society regarding european integration, by the way, very similar, right? well, if there is any similarity, i am absolutely opposed to any head-on analogies, because i always emphasize that viktor fedorovich yanukovych, having in his pool at least five oligarchs, pro-russian, pro-own and so on, wanted to become an oligarch, in georgia, all the institutional persons, let's say this, the heads who talk, they do not represent anything of themselves, and there is... one oligarch in georgia, an imbecile, who rules the country de facto, without holding positions. this is the strength of his power, and this

will eventually become his weakness. and regarding the parallel, the prisoners, saakashvili and tymoshenko, yes, i agree with this analogy, in what sense, that neither our maidan nor our maidan, he did not aim at, let us remember, we are in the 12th year of the euro held, one of the best of all european world championships, i.e. motivation in schirnermas. yes, to free yulia, who was sitting, well, not in the same way, but for, let's say, on fabricated pretexts in prison, just like mikheil saakashvili, well, that was not the leitmotif of the protest, unequivocally, the government of georgia, like yanukovych step by step, is doing everything to make the protest form a paradigm, anyone but them, that's the only similarity, but how do you think the opposition is reacting now after all these stories? how determined are they to show the georgian authorities that they will not continue the dialogue if they follow

the path of such screwing? and the west, you see, the situation here is rather strange, i will explain why, the west is now situationally playing along with the georgian authorities, why? because georgian the government, in its design of a reversal from the same, from the same request, it laid a radical reaction for washington, brussels, other european... institutions, so when now, so that, well, let's put it this way , due to the lack of time, i will say as simplified as possible, in order to further stir up society, it is necessary to introduce sanctions against the closest circle of vizin aniveshvili, against, against parliamentarians, security forces, eh, you can suspend visa-free travel and so on, so that it will further stir up society and it will go to change this government, frankly speaking, but this is de facto acts on hand to the authorities who want to issue. this turnaround and stay in power, that's such a paradox, you see, so if i'm here, you see,

why is it easier for me to talk about it, because i'm in non -public, let's say, consultations, on the eve of georgia's application for eu membership, i asked banal the question is that you want to admit georgia to the eu as soon as possible, well, we understand that this is currently impossible, or do you want to help the authorities to change their policy and give a signal of what the authorities are up to. georgia has no chance of joining regarding the eu, that's why the event here is a little late, because for at least two years, or since february 22, and i am convinced much earlier, the georgian authorities, unfortunately for me and for the majority of georgians, decided on the side of the global confrontation, they were very disappointed by ukraine, which did not fall in two weeks, this should be clearly understood, but here is an interesting point, how russia is now in this regard. to what extent does it have any ideas of its own about how

relations with the georgian authorities will develop in the future, russia moderated this project, these processes, this and about resettlers, and this, this is also about the difference, let's say so, of visas for citizens, for citizens of georgia in russia, she prepared it for the georgian authorities, you understand, and here it is completely unprincipled, or is it benzina ivanich. was he politically technologically led to make such a u-turn, or did it happen on a call from moscow? in brussels and in washington, they are convinced of the latter, you see, russia is now rubbing it in the banal way. co-speakers of the prime minister of georgia iraklii geribashvili, now dugin, i don't know, zakharova, karasin, putin, lukashenko, that is, you understand, that is, the last statements of ierakhlii kobohidze, they should discuss them at all, it is already a matter of hygiene, not of information, in principle of hygiene, when he says that ukraine

fell as a state after the 14th year, joined the global party of war. without mentioning the russian federation in their speech, they are really trolling, they are really mocking, they think that they are stronger, at least like the gopniks in the yard, well, i simply cannot not react emotionally to this, so the situation here is absolutely determined, as absolutely determined , we will come to the fact that we are in armenia let's use georgia as an example when discussing the process of imitating nikol pashinyan's u-turn, but this is an interesting question, isn't it? that in a situation where armenia is looking for allies in the west, georgia, which has always had these allies and with the help, with the help of these allies, could also be such, i would say, a geopolitical patron in armenia, is losing all this before our eyes, well that it does not lose, these losses are formalized, once i also repeat when i was asked whether georgia can become a locomotive for armenia, which

returned to the south caucasus after restoration of territorial... integrity of azerbaijan, i have always said that georgia can become a locomotive, before joining the so -called ssr, ussr 15 or 2.0. this is absolutely now, unfortunately, a logical situation. chinese history, for example, with the construction of the deep-sea port of anaklia, 40 km from ochamchira, where the russian federation partially moves a naval base from novorossiysk, this is absolutely also russian history from the point of view of... in terms of defining the opposing side in this global war , and when we talk about azerbaijan or armenia, those regimes there were at least honest. azerbaijan constantly does not join, constantly barrages, strategically endures. it resolves its issue of restoring territorial integrity, including in the system of trade and pressure with moscow,

i know you know this topic well. armenia honestly gives signals that while we are in captivity, help. to us, we are captives, we, we are vassals of the russian federation, we are guilty of this, not guilty, on the topic of karabakh there is less of that, and georgia, article 70 of some kind of constitution remains that we are going to nato and the eu, and we we see such, let's say, such a geopolitical equilibrist, that's all, that's why it's annoying, but i emphasize, there's nothing surprising, we logically came to the point when now the same media houses, expert sites that we during the 15th, 17th year there, it seems they got visa-free before, they would say different examples, but i smiled crookedly, and now they are angrily telling how georgia turned around so suddenly, where there is no suddenness, absolutely none, then these logical processes, it just wants to turn around and cancel this one the way to the eu by the hands of the eu, or by the hands of washington, and on the american track she almost

succeeded. and tell me, do you believe in this idea that the russians promised bidzina ivanishvili a confederation with abkhazia and south ossetia? no, i don't believe it, i don't think so, whether i believe it or not , i know that there is no such thing, because he is a conditional cossack, a conditional cossack, let's call him that, although, why conditional, he kept his post of pre-nistrovizer of all movements, if he suddenly went to the kremlin with this proposal now to play along with georgian dreams for victory in the elections, he will not accept it in the kremlin, those who solve these issues have already... even released mr. karasin, mr. karasin, he has the format of karasin bashidze, the settlement with georgia fell apart, because mr. zurab abashidze turned out to be not only an old warrior, but also a wise warrior, he came out of this format of negotiations, understanding, knowing what is happening around his country, so as not to spoil his wing, but now they launched

karasyn, who says that they are saying something in abkhazia, or they are thinking in georgia, well, it's all emotions. now, for example, is rising the topic there is the accession of the samachablo region, the so -called south ossetia, and with abkhazia, well , there are no discussions there at all, rather, political-technological interventions are being made to at least somehow master or support the policy of the georgian dream. the russian federation can formalize the confederation or three subjects of some kind in tskhinvali, sukhumi and tbilisi in a single project. in the ussr project one and a half or 2.0, when it already gets everything it wants from georgia, when it is categorically convinced that there will be no u-turn, then it can, let's say so, let's say... we can do this the topic will be raised, they will tell us here in bbilis that they, look, how we successfully solved the issue between armenia

and azerbaijan regarding karabakh peacefully, you understand, that is, not only armenia and azerbaijan were captured, but maybe, well, they promised something and so on, he doesn't mind sitting down and enduring it, because, well, uliham oliev, as well -known as gruzdiv's pistol for his own population for... one or two, the least, the least political periods, he will have the restoration of territorial integrity, this the biggest motivator of society will support him, they can sit, they will not contradict the process that is happening in georgia, the turks do not even bother, the turks actually summoned erakli grybashvili, give kabakhidze a prime minister to istanbul, it seems, who promised them that even with such a reversal, all highways that... are actually important for turkey in europe, from azerbaijan through georgia, because the transcaucasia project is impossible without georgia, they will not be subject to any, let's say,

restrictions from the russian federation, and for the first time, the russians will not touch either bakutbilisi or other logistics projects critical for the region and not only, you understand, but the anaklia must be built for two years, you understand, they are preparing, they are preparing even for failure, this is conform. it is even preparing for a failure on the ukrainian front, but having central asia and the so-called imperial project of the transcaucasia in its assets, which is based on all the bastard logic, they are doing everything for this, and that is why there is such a nervous reaction in relation to tbilisi. thank you, mr. volodymyr, volodymyr kobchak, manager of the south caucasian branch of the army conversion and armament research center, and now to the near east with mykhailo yakubovych, an orientalist, candidate. of historical sciences, a researcher at the oriental studies department of priibur university. congratulations, mr. mykhailo. good evening. so israel said they are ready to accept

the peace plan proposed yesterday by the president of the united states, joseph biden, a three-phase plan that has as the first phase a ceasefire and the release of most of the israeli hostages that are being held terrorist organization, hamas, as well as the withdrawal of israeli forces from most of the gas sector, but so far we see that the fighting continues, the negotiations continue, and israeli leaders say that the war will not end in any case until the moment hamas has been destroyed, so what is happening in your opinion, a long political game is taking place, since the situation in palestine and in israel has already become a factor in the american elections, including, we see that already... today, the minister of defense of israel stated at a staff meeting, what they are preparing a new government for the gas sector, an alternative to hamas, obviously this is some kind of

option, like the west bank of the jordan river, another question is who will represent these moderate forces, that is, this is not the first attempt at a truce in these months, well here it is clear that the democrats have a very large lobby, which i will not name about... under any circumstances, but let's rather call it such a lobby of some such left-wing pacifism, in this case, which also voted against aid to israel, so here we see a long process where before various summits, that should be happening now, president biden decided to play on the soil of the global south, he proposed such a plan for... in which all parties should already be satisfied, although you can think, without biden's proposal, no one would even

guess what he was saying it was possible to take it that way, just change everyone, take it just to leave, well , what’s next, what’s next, how will it be then, that is, this plan does not foresee what will happen next for gas, it talks about some kind of recovery, about international aid, well, that is it. .. as the introduction of peacekeepers, that is, there are some big ones contingents will stand, there was such an attempt too, it seems to me that this is an attempt to again feel the possibilities of peace, but in no case is full-fledged peacekeeping, the more so the question remains with yemen, which continues to launch drones there over ailat, the americans never managed to target there the situation with the houthis, there is the issue of lebanon, where the drones fly from, the issue of hezbollah. that is, the hamas factor is one of the few only factors, and that is why these proposals of biden, they look such that they can be taken as certain russian words.

for negotiations, but at the moment israel, even rafah, has not given to whom to give the question here, that is, he has not left rafah, the crossing point is blocked there again, and it seems to me that in the near future we should expect this plan there, that here are the parties from such and such days, a full truce, a full cease-fire, it seems to me that this is hardly possible, israel, despite the serious pressure that is being exerted on... you will go for it, and hamas also needs certain guarantees of preserving itself as a structure, and burning gaza without hamas, hamas has such an option, it is not for it will sign, obviously, but this is also a good question, if there is no such plan, what will happen next? what will follow is a long war of attrition, a war that will continue until there is some change in the united states, and

in the united states... we see, i will emphasize again, the question, let's call it the palestinian question, because it is phrased like this, many intellectuals, we see protests in universities, we see the significant involvement of various europeans, so it has already become a factor in their policy, just like russia's war against ukraine, and until there is a clear answers to the question of what to do next with the gas sector. specifically, who will rule there, after all, a population of two million that moves here and there, a significant civil and humanitarian disaster, which is difficult to close your eyes to, actually, when there is such an answer, then something will change there, for now i it seems that these are just another such statements about a truce, which we have heard about, for example, even in the case of russian aggression

against ukraine, that is... the parties are not ready for this, because the parties believe that the chances they have the strength to fight on. even hamas , as we can see, prepared very well for this war, has significant stockpiles of weapons, and in force, and there is a threat of escalation from the side of hezbollah, from the side of yemen, and that means they have a certain cover, they still have the resources to continue fighting, and with civilian casualties , in principle, they don't really count and... that's why, actually , i wouldn't wait for such a one-time truce, this conflict, which has been going on for decades, has gone too far for it to end just like that solve biden's plan or something, that is in my opinion, the war will last all summer, all autumn, and probably beyond. well, you are saying, as tsvihanikbi, the adviser to the prime minister of israel, who said that the war will be over at least until the end of the year. maybe. and yes,

that is, this is a realistic forecast, it shows a certain position of netanyahu, i will once again confirm what the israeli defense minister says about the plan for gaza, that is, they will clean up the gas from hamas realistically, or now as the israeli forces imagine it, and then further they will offer some other solutions, the only question is to what extent the lebanese factor, here the hezbollah factor, will be included. how will everyone else react, because there is a significant internal political crisis in israel itself, an attempt to sway the issue of hostages, there is significant opposition to netanyahu, which demands a cease-fire, that is, give us an immediate cease-fire, hamas returns all the hostages, but hamas doesn't want to do that, it doesn't want to just return everyone, it needs guarantees, it's not gaza that needs guarantees,

it's not the palestinians there who... guarantees, hamas wants some for itself. in many ways, hamas is fighting for the preservation of power. hamas does not fight for nothing. like everyone else, this is a military-political organization for which this is an important issue. and he wants to represent palestine, maybe there in a new face. however, here, well, negotiations of some kind with hamas took place with the israelis, we can see that there were several rounds in cairo, yes. there were certain concessions, but nothing more, that 's why i see that there are no prerequisites for a long-term truce here, despite all the statements, well, i do i understand that president biden would very much like to end this conflict before the elections, it is true, because this is a big problem for him and for him, i would like to have a summit in italy now, then a summit in switzerland, by the way, in switzerland, the global south will raise the issue of ...