tv [untitled] June 9, 2024 6:30pm-7:00pm EEST
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in poland, topics that resonate in our society. drone attack on kyiv and other cities of ukraine, drone attacks on moscow and other russian cities. analysis of the processes that change the country and each of us. the country should get the right to start negotiations on joining the eu. vitaly portnikov and guests of the project: we are bored, because there is nothing to fight about, let's invent something, they help us understand the present and predict the future. then trump's second presidency will be terrible. a project for those who care and think. political club. every sunday at 20:10 at espresso. good health once again. 18:31 minutes and 12 seconds on our watches and me.
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i hope, maria holub, an expert on european integration and bilateral relations between ukraine and the european union, is waiting, she is definitely waiting for us, i have already seen it myself. good health, ms. maria, thank you for finding time for us on such an important final day of the elections to the european parliament, and therefore, who is passing, how, what will the european parliament look like, the new convocation, shall we say, good day, a. .. yes, indeed, it ends today marathon, parliamentary marathon of elections to the european union, although in many countries, these elections coincide with regional, local elections, such as in belgium and other countries. what can be said about the new parliament as of now, we will expect the first exit polls literally in an hour, the aggregated data format will be collected by the european parliament itself. about how
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the elections were held, for sure the next parliament will be much different than the current european parliament, much more colorful, less the coalition will be strengthened, why, because now virtually all the same political groups that exist in the active european parliament are passing, however, the majority of moderate conservatives, right-wing... radical parties is growing significantly, this is already a pan-european trend, and we can also expect that it will there are many more so-called meps who will not affiliate themselves with one or another political group for very different reasons, including the fact that it is quite difficult to reach a consensus at the political level on issues of security, migration, internal reform of the european union, so the next convocation will be very interesting, but the vector. as i understand, despite
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the motley, the vector will not change, it cannot be said that they mostly supported ukraine there or supported it to a limited extent, and now there is such a parliament that they will say no, we will not give a single penny at all, and putin is our great friend, we we love him, and everyone went to moscow to kiss him in different places, that is, there will simply be motley, but the vector will remain the same, approximately, well, it is not very hot, but also ukraine's support is not cold, and not hot either. but a cold confrontation with russia, what do you say? you know, here it is necessary to understand that the european parliament is a reflection of those attitudes that currently prevail in the member states of the european union, and since ukraine managed to maintain this great support at the level of the population of the european union, as well as the heads of states and governments, then it can be expected that the next european par'.
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will also demonstrate this support, moreover, a key political force, this is the group of sps, they are very notable for their support of ukraine, the same is the case with socialists and liberals, they always voted and supported all resolutions that were directed in support of ukraine, this trend will definitely continue, we can expect that there will be much more discussions, because with the arrival of such forces in the european parliament such as, for example, the dutch party of wilders, one can expect, of course, that they will try to arrange discussions at the level of the european parliament, well, on the other hand, the enemies of ukraine, i read here, are simply unlikely to create a united front, hardly it can be expected that those who are skeptical about european integration, about europe, and those who are not... skeptical
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about putin, they will not be able to organize themselves and act as a united front, because even if they have a united front, here i have numbers, there are orban 10, votes. votes, that is, it is not dozens, it is up to two dozen people, well, they will not create a new one, please, well, they will definitely try to spoil the mood of everyone, including you and me, but they will not really create any such monolithic power, why? because it is rather difficult for them to agree among themselves. they are very different, they have very different agendas, and, for example, a topic that is of great concern to the european union is migration and security, they do not have a unanimous solution to all these challenges, that is, it should also be remembered that all these forces
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are mainly are populist-minded, so they can simply organize a competition in their own populism, and of course it will be difficult for the european parliament itself. but definitely won't lead to any groundbreaking or radical reversals, including regarding the current support for ukraine. it's very interesting, these are the last words you said, i'm just going to stick to them now, ms. maria, as far as i understand, as far as the editors tell me, one of the interesting things is that they are very careful, all the enemies of ukraine, they don't show publicly. themselves, they are afraid to speak somewhat negatively about ukraine and positively about russia, because they are unlikely to be supported by the voters, and that is why they , if disputes continue, but really, what is migration, what is there, how is energy, and about ukraine, well, that's for later, and the impression is that
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they just don't feel comfortable talking about ukraine, whether it's you, as a person who sees it, you confirm it, there are... two points that need to be talked about , the first is that in the vast majority of the countries of the european union, in general in all the countries of the european union, there is huge support for ukraine really at the level of society, accordingly, politicians who try to promote a different line automatically become unpopular, and this, by the way , it is very clear from the results of the elections in holland, v basically, we have an exit field in slovakia, the same picture there. the second point is that the current european parliament has done a great job of cleaning up, one might say, its catch from various agents, including agents of the kremlin, in the fight against disinformation, a lot of effort has been put into cyber security, and in all of this
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, russian influence was very clearly traced , the russian trail, accordingly, even putin sympathizers, if they appear in the new european parliament, they are simply forced will they either revise their views, which is also not an exception, or really reduce their rhetoric much after they actually receive the mandate of the european parliament? i will put a tricky question to you, which is that now the belgian police are simply keeping a closer eye on european deputies, considering that they really very often for... and they just caught some various multinational deputies who simply either took bribes or just suddenly started to sympathize with russia , it is not known for what reasons and so on, that is, well, simply, if in any country in the world, if
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there is a lot of crime in that area, then there are reinforced police outfits, what about reinforced police outfits to study the behavior of... mps, is there such reinforcement, please, here they have a slightly different mechanism, because the european parliament is a pan-european institution, it is one of the top three european institutions, and they have, first of all, a very clearly written and very correctly regulated ethical code of conduct, plus a very strong code of conduct precisely in connection with all these external influences, and here it is not only about russia. talking about china, we remember this famous qatari scandal with azerbaijan , they are constantly being persecuted for some reason, yes, yes, yes, yes, and they just very much regulated all their own procedures, for example, before all european deputies had
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to report who was meeting with whom, yes only assistants will now report, it all goes very much into the digital plane, that is, everything... will be open and transparent, so they try to avoid such opportunities as much as possible for corruption risks, it's terrible for everyone who... hopes that ukraine will join europe and someone wants to join the european parliament, keep in mind, then you won't get a mistress, because you have to immediately write a report on who you met and why you met, you have to to live with wives, the end, so-and-so europe, to whom , so what i am told here, you can somehow lead right there among the european parliamentarians. some sexual contacts, then, well, i, what, i talked with a colleague and that's it, or she talked and that's it
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and well, let's talk about ursula von fondern, ms. ursula will be elected president on july 18, and the question is whether she will be re-elected, how much is that, well, well, if, in ukraine she is considered very pro-ukrainian, she very often comes to kyiv and ... everyone here congratulates, and she really, at least with words, helps a lot, tries, well , within the limits of her powers, obviously, otherwise she can be re-elected and she will again lead there for as many as five years this call, which is called, now i i will tell you what it is called, the european commission, european commission, yes, commission, commissioners, i have a lot, it's hard for me to pronounce the word commission, commissioners, i would be an advisor. the people's commissar does not arouse any zeal in me, remembering what, what, what he did in
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the soviet union. please, ursula, about ursula fonderline. yes, that is a very good question. this issue is actually being discussed now in brussels and in the key capitals, much more so than the actual results of the election, which are more or less clear. indeed, ms. ursula has the ambition to be re-elected for a second term in principle. a month ago or two months ago, it was considered simple, but in fact we are waiting for official approval, because it received favorable reviews and the green light from the key leaders of the european union, and germany, and france, and spain, and even italy, but just according to the results of the elections , it will simply be more difficult for her to do this, but now the search for a consensus and a coalition is ongoing, that is, she must ensure. somehow these 361 votes of meps, which in principle,
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given the future composition of the european parliament can be done, but it is quite difficult, and it must be understood that the position of the president of the european commission is part of a wider circle of redistribution of positions, because this mandate is always considered together with the person who will be appointed as the head of the foreign policy. actions, who will be the other european commissioners, which countries will receive which portfolio, who will be the president of the european parliament, indeed for us mrs. ursula fondeen is a key, one of the key politicians at the european level, she is not only in words, but really in our has proven to the european integration vector that it really strongly supports ukraine, so we are really looking forward to this first session of the new european parliament in strap. and so far the optimism is quite restrained and it is that ms.
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ursula will be re-elected, then she will already form her own commission. regarding the negotiations, because they won't understand me if i don't ask about the pro-ukrainian issue, it means that there is a recommendation to start negotiations with ukraine and moldova, georgia is not on the list, as i understand it, and as always, we have baba yaga here. which is called against, baba yaga hungary. so how much can we believe and hope for the beginning of these negotiations, well, let's say, in the 24th year, well, okay, i will not be so optimistic that in the summer of the 24th, well, but at least in the summer or autumn, or in the first month of winter, such it is possible, and what does it give, why should we pay attention to it, because the negotiations there can drag on for decades, please, they really can drag on for decades, we have ambitions to finish them sooner. but just to define some normal time intervals, these negotiations
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it is necessary to start, and it is not even political now, although in our case everything is more or less political, purely from the point of view of the european bureaucracy, this is a technical step, but it must be done, this intergovernmental conference must be held, which will give the green light to start negotiations, the ukrainian side claims, and in principle the european side is at the level of a coma. agrees with this that we have fulfilled all the criteria, carried out all the necessary work, now the floor is for the european side, belgium, which currently chairs the council of the european. union is also quite clear determined that they would like to start negotiations on accession with ukraine and moldova during the time of the belgian presidency, that is, we have june, this is such a deadline, and we are waiting now, what exactly this process will be, that is, there are several plans, plan a , plan b, in any case, the key will be
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the eurosummit, the eurocouncil, which is now supposed to... take place at the end of june, and if, for example, we will see that hungary is very clearly blocking at the technical level, then most likely this decision will be brought to the eurocouncil, and there we know what is in principle mechanisms, as agreed with hungary on previous occasions, we can hope that everything will work out this time as well. thank you, maria holub, an expert on european integration, bilateral relations between ukraine and the european union. the european union with brussels, and now we are going to talk about mrs. yaga, who is always against, with dmytro tuzhanskyi, director of the institute of central european strategy , an expert on ukrainian-slovak relations, but i put ukrainian-hungarian relations first, he appeared before with your bright eyes, and we will talk about baba yaga,
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good health, mr. dmytro tuzhanskyi, so good evening, so what, and with... again they are against and and and and there are some explanations why hungary is once again against the start of negotiations with ukraine and moldova, and whether or not is it the mood of orbán, or is it the mood of hungary, and in this case, if there were elections today, they would re-elect orbán, who would shout: let's finally kiss putin and finally spit on zelensky, or something else, that something might change in hungary, please. mr. dmytro, well, let me start with the fact that they are not exactly blocking moldova, they say we are in favor of opening negotiations with moldova, but there is a question regarding ukraine, the formal binding is to ensure the rights of the hungarian national minority, hungary after the summit, two summits, more precisely, in december 2023, when
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negotiations with ukraine were officially opened, and on january 24- th year, where 50 billion was allocated, rolled out the spear. of the 11 so -called requests, they say that until ukraine fulfills all these requests, well, until then they will block, but i would take a simpler approach to this, because these 11 points, not that the rights hungarian national minorities are unimportant, this is absolutely not the case, in general, this legislation regarding the rights of national minorities, you know, is important for ukraine itself, this is our test of europeanness and this is our test of building a political nation, are we really able to build this nation, which will include everyone, and it is also important for hungary, because it wants to maintain its leverage over ukraine, uh, and its leverage through ukraine, because look, now june is a very important moment, the elections to the european parliament, you discussed the future or the future president
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of the european commission, will it be ursula fonderlajen next, who will be at the head of the european council and in general, how will the portfolios, european commissioners, be divided, and for viktor orbán this is a game, and for him, he does not have so many cards, hungary is a very small country, only 21 mandates from hungary, within the country, i am now transferring, and right now orbán has this black swan in the form of peter mader, whom no one knew back in february, january of this year, and now according to individual ratings, almost a third, yes , yes, absolutely, let's see how many results there will be at... precincts, because it is for the elections to the european parliament that peter mader is going, that is , local elections in hungary are taking place there in parallel, he does not take part there, and thus avoids it, that is, we will see what the result will be and, in the end, how many votes viktor orbán will have, because even with such a small group of deputies in 2019, they were decisive, orbán voted, fidesz
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voted for ms. ursula, did not vote for weber, the primary candidate from... so viktor orbán wants to play this thing out, because then he was very successful, he finally agreed with merkel and macron and received a serious european commissioner for enlargement, now it is unlikely that viktor orbán can claim it, he angers many, his only way is, let's say, a trump card, this is what he wants to play, it is through the right, that is, through his possible alliance with maloney and european conservatives and reformists. his such brovans romance with le pen and her group identity and democracy orbán is betting on them uniting, well i honestly don't believe it, but then again it's like that, you know the game, it's... pure, pure politics mr. dmytro, i have to ask you, i apologize to you, the question is so naive, absolutely, i am a naive person, i understand simple things, complex ones not so much, let's say
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there are half a million magyars living in ukraine, there are no questions, well, i don't i know, not half a million, not half a million, less than 100 thousand, less than 100, half a million is in slovak, let's take a maximum of 100,000, i think it's very easy to get around all 100 thousand, as far as i understand, it's... real and take from them, that we have no claims against ukraine, that we appeal to the european power structures with what is in orbán is such a friend of ours, we love him very much, we respect him, he is the leader, that is, of ours, as a mother state, but we have no problems with the ukrainian language, with the magyar language, we have no problems with universities, we do not have this, that, and so please listen. listen to us too, you don't even need to say that orbán is a goat, but simply say that orbán thinks so, but we think so, and we
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live here, and we have no complaints, as far as i understand, the majority really do not have complaints, there may be 1000, 10 or 5 00, who don't like something, but the rest will say, yes, we live normally, everything is fine with us, we have two passports, as a rule, we go here and there, everything is fine with us, so there is nothing to sin, why? you can't do that, look, you're absolutely right, and in december the hungarian leaders did it and orbán was shocked, but at the same time it didn't stop orbán from playing this ukrainian card or the card of the hungarian national minority and he will continue to do it, that is, i , for example, i do not rule out that such a letter, such an appeal will appear again, then in december it was signed leaders, well, all without exception, all with the exception of one organization, the communist party of ukraine. the leaders of these hungarian so-called communities or municipalities where hungarians are the majority, they
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signed this letter with the same appeal, i think it should be done again, because then there was an attempt by a certain hungarian such propaganda to say that this is a fake letter, there is no such thing, and but once again i would like to tell you that orban will continue to play this ukrainian card for his political debates, to bargain for money, not only the negotiating framework is now conditionally potentially is blocked by hungary, they are blocking 9 billion of eu money for the peace facility, it is for weapons for ukraine, and they have a very funny excuse, the discrediting of hungarian companies in ukraine is absolutely absurd, but it is because funds from european funds are blocked for hungary, that is why those, you know, are more complicated. more difficult debates and for ukrainian diplomacy, you know, well, she actually understands him, here are all the schedules, here the question is how to influence orban and how to convey it to european
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leaders that the future of ursula fonderlajen is potential as the president of the european commission it depends on whether she can defend this pan-european policy towards ukraine and make it impossible for the hungarian veto, and the same goes for ms. maloney, even ms.... le pen, and it, look, it works somewhere, if you even look at the rhetoric, marie le pen, starting from april, well, i can't say that she became pro-ukrainian, but she became very pro-ukrainian, you know, constructively, carefully, yes, she is careful, well, now we have shown everyone so that everyone knows that this is not dmytro tuzhanskyi, not mykola varits, that's exactly what he was orban, here he went to vote, and here he stuffed the bag and will vote, then we went, well, what about us, we... we already talked about it with you, but it is really interesting, polls say that orban , 48% of hungarians like orbán, and 29% of madier. and what are
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the trends, say, two or three months ago, there were about the same number, is orbán losing, madir gaining, or has madir stopped, and orban is growing, well, what do you know about this, please, yes, while it is not clear which piece. peter magyar will take a bite out of fidesz, from orman, right? that is, at first it all looked logical, because he seems to be from the environment of fidesz, the same views, i.e. right-conservative, but in fact peter magyar is now taking away more momentum from the opposition, from the party, and from other oppositionists, that is, we will see, it is very important that the polling station will show, you understand, because european elections are somewhat different from parliamentary elections there. and even than the local elections, which are also held there and especially the elections in the summer, mobilization is very important, and therefore the same peter madir, you know, technologically acts quite competently, very, well
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let's see what will be... the final results, but he held a large number of meetings in the regions, the day before sunday actually held a big rally in budapest with this, you know, photo, it, let's say, fidesz scares, i would say so, but well let's see what the results will be, i wouldn't, well, let's say this, you understand what the point is, there is such a psychological moment here, orban will score well, but if peter scores, peter magyar will score the same 29, 25, or even more than 20, this orban will already be defeated, you see, so there will be such and such an effect, and so on we are looking forward to the results, well, the local elections will also be a test, i.e. buda, for example, a very important question for me , after all, i work as a journalist, isn't it strange, and there are some such strange people, i can't understand it, can you explain , make it clear what they said, so this orban, he monopolized
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the press, the press obeys him. wait, these are the fundamental points of europeanness, you can’t say, like putin, to write this, i forbid, and tomorrow everyone will say, hooray, that’s it, we too, we perform, that is, you can on the ground, if i knew the hungarian language, to hear the truth about the situation in hungary, such a simple simple question, that is, i will turn on the tv, or i will open the computer and look. something happened there, they criticize these, well, the political struggle, they criticize everyone, they criticize everyone and normal european life, and i would say also ukrainian life, because here too they criticize each other not always, not always justifiably, but that's what i would, if i knew the hungarian language, what i could hear and what i could, could not hear, there is a criticism of orban, god damn it, you can’t, just like putin, you have my word, well, look,
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there’s a problem with the tv, there’s only one tv channel, it’s ottle, i ’m not some kind of advertisement, but it’s one tv channel, you know, they have it a day, only 10 minutes of news appear, that is, it is the only independent tv channel, but the other day, the hungarian public broadcaster released such a story about the political situation and elections in europe that, as the hungarian independent media signed, they say that russian propaganda is smoking somewhere in the corners compared to this story, so with tv the problem is certainly easier with online media. there are editions and a large number, and this is noticeable in budapest, at the level of budapest. but as for, you know, if the provinces, then of course, then look at the level of monopolization and control of the media space, yes, with the purchase of the media, that is, it is something similar to what yanukovych wanted to do, remember when they absorbed holding after holding, it's just that it was all temporary and quickly fell apart, it's
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been 14 years in hungary. systematically and continuously, so and so, and again, orbán does not seek to convince everyone, he needs to keep in his these bubbles, well, 2.5-3 million voters, that’s enough for him, that is, the election model allows having 2/3 of the parliament with 47-43, and society, the hungarians themselves, they like it, well, conditionally they say, tomorrow orban leaves and the day after tomorrow everything is in ... is adjusted as it should be, not as it should be under orbán, that is, the consciousness is that it is wrong, it is difficult for us to oppose it, but we know the right way, and we will change it quite quickly, do people think , well, okay, well , this kind of television, well, let them say what they want there, well, look, a third sees it that way, that it's wrong, that it's a dead end, and 2/3 say, well, it's fine, stability
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is great, that's it. and so it is according to sociological data, that is, even with this, with this level of propaganda, for example, and control of the media space, still a third of hungarians are in favor of aid to ukraine, and 16 or 19% are in favor of military aid to ukraine, this is despite the fact that from every iron now they say that i don't know, there is almost one more patron in ukraine and there will be a nuclear war and the third world war, that is, they scare with some very absurd things, but there is one more thing, and a big one... hungary is also on their minds hungarians, so we understand that slovakia, and romania, and ukraine, and so on, and they, they, it is difficult for them, after the first world war, they were big, they became small, and yay-yay, and even horty was an admiral, well, because he got the admiralty when he was in austria-hungary.
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