that is why it is very strange why china, for example, as a neutral party, does not participate in this summit, and here the question already arises, because china offers its alternative, repeating it, and it is not interested in somehow supporting the ukrainian proposals, but whether it can be the case that cathay is just interested in showing its leadership, let's say in brics, he is proposing a plan, and let brazil support it, the republic of south africa has already supported it. russia joined, well, i don't really count on india, but everyone else can easily to join the chinese plan, this will be the plan of the organization, at this summit of the foreign ministers of brics member countries in moscow, such an idea can absolutely come up, it is absolutely possible, we will see, literally tomorrow the day after tomorrow this summit starts, but really this is this plan, he discussed precisely with the brics countries, and as an answer we later heard that the representatives of these countries... brazil, par,

saudi arabia, will not send their representatives to switzerland, well, in particular at a high level, and it is obvious that china is trying to create his own platform with his so-called peaceful proposals, where russia will agree to these proposals, because russia has repeatedly spoken through the mouth of lavrov putin about the acceptability of chinese initiatives, and it is not visible. but at this brics summit there is some support for chinese proposals, it will be discussed, and china will thus try to promote them, or at least they will be prepared for the right moment. and why should the united states call to take public china as well participation in the peace summit, is this the hope that they will be listened to, or is it just such a propaganda story? well, in fact , it has already passed, the thing is already about dragging. diplomatic, because the role

of china is clear to everyone, it seems to me that neither the united states nor the west have any expectations that china will move to the side of the west or support, for example, in the form in which we would like ukraine , but all the same, this is a diplomatic reluctance of china's presence, especially with considering how russia does not want this presence, it is, it is, and this is an attempt to exert such pressure, possibly even from the outside. of the united states and the desire to show us, as for european partners, what china is like, this rapprochement between china and russia, which is already almost final, because in fact the united states of america has to push european partners to make certain decisions, and for example , the big seven, it finally has to consider, let's say, the measures that concern the chinese...

banks there regarding assistance to russia in the purchase dual purpose goods, and it is obvious that this non-constructiveness and rapprochement with russia, it is necessary, and in particular the demonstration of even such an approach as participation in the swiss summit, it will help to convince these partners, that is, you believe that cathay is already finally decided that he will be close to russia, and not neutral in the further development of events, i don't want to. to say that china will not, let's say that it chooses a side, china will act exactly as it sees fit, that is, in this case in switzerland he explained his presence in such diplomatic terms and explained this presence and supported by this and supported by various other countries, that is, china is not alone in this case, in addition, china received our deputy minister, and they talked about what they will support there... foreign relations will

interact, well, in this way, he tries to balance the minimal diplomatic interaction that we have, especially during the war, that is, about the recognition of china, which has been decided completely, i cannot say, so that china views russian aggression against ukraine through its own prism of confrontation by the united states of america, and that is what drives how it chooses to behave, what it does... and what the limits of its behavior are, i don't think it will ultimately cross over, so that there is great interest in interaction with the united states, and primarily with european countries, and china still has a lot of important moments for interaction, so it will be, we will see this cunning chinese policy, uh, at the same time, i want to say that the western countries, as we see, they are to the end do not break relations with china, even

realizing that it is seriously helping russia, because there is such a possibility and the feeling that this interaction can be even greater, and when china really helps russia, in particular by military methods, then this will bring serious consequences in the development of the war. plus there is still a little hope for china as a deterrent to putin's nuclear threats. although we see how putin tries to network these threats, even in the moments when he meets with xi jinping, but behind the scenes, even european leaders recognize the participation of china, india, as deterrents of these threats, and therefore... balancing diplomacy from all sides, it will be present. thank you, thank you, ms. natalie. nataliya peleksienko butyrska, an expert on issues of east asia, was on air with us, and now from asia, east to the near east with vyacheslav likhach, historian, political scientist, researcher, member of the expert council of the center for civil

liberties, he is in israel. congratulations mr. vyacheslav. good evening. so let's start with this event that happened yesterday. which was such a great feast for the israelites, released four hostages, however, the world has a mixed perception of this, like many other events that take place in the region, they say yes, four people were released, but a large number of civilians of the palestinian authority died in this operation, hamas has already called it that it is not victory and defeat, and how do you generally consider what happened, this is definitely one of the most successful operations since the beginning of the war. eight months ago, it is definitely so festive because the release of any of the hostages is its own the purpose for which this war began, for which all these sacrifices were made, and

the operation may not have been perfect, but it was extremely difficult, one of the most difficult operations not only in this war, but in many years and... it was definitely was, it can be regarded as a great luck. what do you think about the fate of the biden peace plan, which israeli prime minister betanyaho has apparently already agreed to, but which now threatens him with a mere government crisis. no one knows what israeli prime minister benjamin agreed to netanyahu, and biden's peace plan has two significant, well... there are two significant obstacles on the way to its implementation, they are called israel and hamas, that is, the two parties that this plan supposedly aims to reconcile. so far, neither israel nor hamas has fully accepted this plan. benjamin

netanyahu is allegedly giving signals that he is serious about this plan and is ready to accept it, certainly he is acting under considerable pressure, and not only from the united states. and other international partners, but he never once clearly articulated that he agrees to a complete ceasefire and the end of the military operation in gaza, this is exactly what hamas is demanding, they are demanding to achieve all the previous intermediate steps, it all starts with... the establishment of a temporary cessation of the ceasefire, then the release of one batch of hostages, then there are other steps , but everything rests on the fact that hamas does not believe that israel is ready for a complete cessation of hostilities. he believes that israel will agree to a temporary

ceasefire for the release of the hostages, and then will continue the war. it seems that hamas is right about this, perhaps this is exactly what binyamin has in mind. however, he hasn't made it clear exactly what he's signing up for, what exactly he's supporting, and exactly how he interprets biden's moderate plan, which he broadly purports to agree with, and yes, if he does agree to a ceasefire, it threatens him by the collapse of the coalition and early elections. and to what extent, in principle , is it possible to realize what the final goals of the... government are in the operation, well, they are talking about the destruction of hamas, but we see that hamas itself continues to occupy a rather serious position in the gas sector, even after such a long time of war, well, how much can we talk about an absolutely unprecedented period,

today is the 247th day, hamas actually has intact battalions, but during this raid for the release of hostages, they talked about that there was a hamas battalion in this place, absolutely what... not damaged by previous military actions, then how much time is needed for the real elimination of hawasa, is such an elimination even possible? in this settlement, in this refugee camp. the israel defense forces, in fact, have not seriously entered yet, and so they are, the fighting units of hamas, as well as in many other parts of the gaza strip, according to preliminary estimates, maybe 50%, maybe a little less, of the quantitative composition of hamas retain the ability to continue fighting , and this means that in 8 months, well , only a little more than half of the entire

potential of hamas was destroyed, this means that this war can continue at this rate at least until the end of this year, or even longer, but in fact a good question is the question of the ultimate goal of this war, because when operation steel sword began... two things were announced as the goal of the operation, the first is the release of hostages, the second is the removal of hamas from power in the gas sector, the destruction of hamas' military potential and the elimination of its political, political potential, the removal of hamas from power in gaza can be said to have taken place. although no other authority was established in the sector, the release

of the hostages, as we can see, in general, did not take place in full, and the most successful of from this point of view, it was precisely the negotiations and the way of exchange, actually as a result of military operations such as yesterday, only a few hostages were released, there were only a few such... successful operations, what does this mean? this means that even those goals that were announced at the beginning of the war are still far from being achieved, at least as much, but this is not the final goal, because what the government of the state of israel sees in this place after the hostages will be released, the arrogance of the hamas government will be destroyed and... its combat potential also, what should actually happen next this day

after, the first day after the war, what will it look like, the israeli government has not formulated its own vision in 8 months. the israeli government says it does not want the palestinian national authority, which lost power there due to a rebellion and coup by hamas 18 years ago, to return to the territory. ah, israel insists that control over security in this territory, it will continue to exercise indefinitely, this means the de facto return of military control, i.e. occupation, and this means that the israeli government does not have a final solution, yes, excuse the wording, that is, some vision of the future that may come after this war. and in reality, this means that the israeli government is trying not

to force, let's say mildly, events, or, as biden recently put it, netanyahu is dragging out this war, perhaps hoping that the power in the white house will also change before the end of this year , which would be for netanyahu personally, as he considers for israel as a state, very good. and tell me, sir? we at the beginning of this war, it was cited as an example that it was possible to create a government of national unity in israel, that some representatives of the opposition went to the government of mr. netanyahu, among them the main figure was, of course, general benny ganz, who became a minister in this government, just a few minutes ago therefore it became known that han was going to resign from this war cabinet, which was formed after the war, that he did not even come to the meeting of the war cabinet, that he was going to resign, that is, he was not working this model of governmental national unity or what?

it stopped working, this is a crisis that erupted neither today nor yesterday, and even this decision that the ghanaian will leave the government was a consequence of the failure to fulfill certain conditions that were publicly announced a few weeks ago, that is, it was a natural process, and the president, the most important thing is that... such a moderate centrist liberal opposition that joined the government after october 7 for the creation of the government of national unity. it does not share precisely this strategic vision of binyamin netanyahu on how to wage war and about the future of gaza, or rather, she does not share this lack of strategic vision on netanyahu's part, and the immediate specter that led to gantz now leaving the government is that gantz pressured

netanyahu to accept a peace proposal that ... the president of the united states, joe biden, indicated that he was not satisfied with the way netanyahu avoided a direct and clear answer on whether he agrees to a cessation of hostilities. without hans and without those political forces that had already left the government of national unity, the coalition remains valid, that is, it does not mean... automatically the destruction of the coalition of the early elections, but actually, if netanyahu agrees to biden's proposal, it will mean the collapse of the coalition for him, because the far-right parties, tseonudotit and maygudite, who are part of the government, definitely ,

after that they will leave the government, they do not agree to biden's peace proposals and express themselves quite aggressively. as for them, that is, this pressure from the united states for netanyahu to accept these proposals will mean personal destruction for him the coalition he leads and the end of his prime ministerial term, because after early elections he has very little chance of retaining his position in the government. tell me, mr. vyacheslav, to what extent it is possible for the situation to escalate in the north, because... in recent days, everyone has been talking about the fact that the situation in the north could be exactly the same as in the south of israel, that hezbollah is preparing for actions similar to hamas was preparing. well, given that israel has been preparing for a possible attack from the north for the last eight months, then the scenario of an escalation with hizbullah will not go as

it happened on october 7 at the beginning of the war with... hamas, but hizbullah definitely has a much more powerful and dangerous missile potential, and in general it is probably the largest militarily non-state military power in the world, so the confrontation by svizbala can to be much more critical for israel, much more difficult than the confrontation with hamas. yes, indeed, in recent days the intensity of each other. of shelling and exchanges of uav strikes between israel and hizballah in lebanon to the north of israel is significantly increasing and say that now is the time for israel to decide whether it is ready to step up its hostilities against hizbollah and push this threat away from

its borders, or if hizbollah will feel that israel. not enough determination and not enough means, and that would mean that hizbullah would increase the pressure, because that's how it works in the middle east, so israel is indeed on the brink of a major hizbullah war, but it still seems to me that right now it 's not likely high, it seems to me that despite the increase in the intensity of hostilities. they still remain, as they say in israel, lower than the vice of escalation, after which the war becomes irreversible. it seems to me that it has not been quiet there for the last 8 months, and several hundred hizbollah fighters have already been eliminated, and

the israel defense forces are daily striking the positions of hizbollah fighters on the territory of lebanon. now. international players, including the united states and the european union, is doing everything to pressure the lebanese government to take certain measures and to put pressure on the ksbu to prevent a major war in the region, but it seems to me that the more important factor here is the period that the islamic republic of iran is currently experiencing, on which hizballah depends politically, financially and in a military sense. fully and completely, and the islamic republic of iran is not currently in the political period to initiate a new wave of escalation. it has to go through this transition period of power change, so in the next few months, i don't expect iran to allow or

order hezbollah to launch a more aggressive attack on israel that would lead to a really significant war in the north. thank you vyacheslav likhachev, historian, political scientist, researcher, member of the expert council of the center for civil liberties in israel, and now with approx. east to latin america with oleksiy otkydach, specialist in latin american issues, adastra center, congratulations mr. oleksiy, good day. well, let's start with the news of the last few days. the president of argentina, javier millay, will not be present at the peace summit in switzerland. he refused both a meeting with the president of ukraine volodymyr zelensky and a meeting with the president of france manuel macron, his european tour significantly abbreviated well, until recently we considered mr. miley one of the most important. supporters of ukraine in latin america, to his inauguration, despite all, i would say, the strangeness of the composition of the participants of this ceremony of such far-right politicians,

the president of ukraine volodymyr zelenskyi flew in, who was there in the company of viktor orban, let's say, other supporters of donald trump, and now javier millay does not even want to be present at the peace summit that is taking place, several factors play a big role here, first of all... in general, if what president miley has demonstrated, his foreign policy is quite, i would say, emotional, that is, he often makes statements, or steps, visits, which are conditioned, if it were, by his subjective desire, his subjective preferences, etc. i don't think that his warm meeting with zelensky there was so, you know, contrived and momentary, he just liked zelensky there, they hugged everything, everything is fine, no, secondly, he has a lot of internal challenges, and obviously, that certain leaders, especially in latin america, especially in africa, that is , in those countries, yes, which are not so involved in the european context, which are not so involved in

our invasion there, in our war, they pay attention first of all to internal, domestic factors, and then they already think yes there about foreign policy, but in fact also for the expert environment, i am sure, for the mfa there and for many, in general, this refusal from milea's point of view is a surprise, because... that relations between the leaders developed quite actively, quite well, took place conversations also coordination, yes there at the level of the ministry of foreign affairs, there the ambassador and so on, that is, everything logically led to the fact that he should go, here for certain reasons that are known, well, except that he personally refuses to his closest entourage there, and this is actually it is extremely difficult to analyze why, because everything went quite logically, well, that is, in fact, it cannot be considered that the president of argentina is there... taking into account some of his special contacts there with moscow or beijing, he refused to join the dobrics, right, and yes , 100% that it is

not under pressure from the russians there, or not under pressure, for example, there is china, we know that countries, for example, there are colombia, peru, ecuador, they will be present at a certain level in the world of peace, and at the same time these countries have, if only the most leaders, who are the most... such let's say, are positive towards, much more than miley, are positive towards the russians, towards the chinese, and therefore, no, we cannot assess that miley's refusal was caused by some external pressure, now to another latin american country, where there is also a change of power , president miley recently came to power, unexpectedly, in mexico can be said that this is such a change of power that indicates the continuation of that course. who in recent years has been associated with the president of this country, lópez obrador, such a charismatic politician, a long-time leader of the opposition, who came to power, but the new

president, claudia schoenbaum, is considered a person who will be, so to speak, the heir of her political teacher, or not , does it not happen in mexico that there is a direct heir? in fact, it is one of mexico's rather long political traditions, that in mexico... the power of the president is quite strong, the presidential term lasts six years, and there was even a so-called term, it is very difficult to explain linguistically from the point of view of etymology, but such an heir, yes, as conventionally in russia they appointed an heir, in mexico many presidents were shown the same way by their heirs, they said, this is the person i want to see as the next president. in the case of claudia sheinbaum, that's basically what happened, and we see that in the elections. in principle, she crushed not only some one there the opposition party, it was opposed by the three largest opposition parties in general, which united in one block, in one coalition, and

these are the parties that... used to fight among themselves and compete with each other, i.e. morena's presidential party, first lópez abratora , now claudia schönbaun, she managed to win the elections back in 2018, now the elections of 2024, and in fact 12 years of the history of mexico will pass under the banner of this party, which was able to wrest power from a completely different political class in mexico, what left-wing, right-wing, well , center-left, let's say. and what can the policy be, what changes can you expect, are there any changes in policy that will distinguish claudia schönbau from lópez obrador, in particular in foreign policy, in relations with america, in the attitude to the conflict between russia and ukraine? i don't think we will see any radical change in foreign policy. shinbaun is quite an old, let's say, an associate

of lópez abrador, she supported him... the campaigns of 2006, 2012, that is, they already they have been cooperating for quite a long time, they are in the same team, they rotate, let’s say, in the same circle, she shares his views, in principle, as such a social leader, kladyushun first showed herself during the student protests of 1987 against the neoliberal so-called reforms, and in latin america the neoliberal reforms of the late 1980s and early 1990s are perceived as imposed by the west. we are states of reform, which aimed there at a new round of colonial consolidation, even though these claims were not true, even though these reforms were aimed at really reforming the economies of latin american countries and improving the standard of living, they have the most negative trail behind them, and this is what the young claudio schönbaum would learn what she was fighting against, and therefore to say that she would somehow radically change the external

politics well, it turns out to be unlikely, because this is how politicians evolve and zelensky of 2019 is not zelensky of 2022, but nevertheless some fundamental principles remain the same, and in the case of claudia scheinbaun, i i don't see any, let's say, reasons for its drastic change, given the current conjuncture, let's say, both internationally, and regionally, and actually in the domestic mexican one, well, it was not the same in mexico either. do you remember once when a person appeared from the same institutional revolutionary party that ruled mexico there for almost two centuries, was considered such an obvious representative of the establishment, the heir of the previous president, and then once and for all the whole policy changed 180°, and no one could have predicted this at the time of the election. i do not i will say that in mexico there is such a large, let's say, a selection of such examples,

argentina with a mileau much more than me... i would not agree with the statement completely, because usually the parties, if of the left variety in mexico, have always been more and so isolationist, skeptical of the united states, right-wing parties, for example, enrique peñanieta or vicente fox, they had better relations with the united states, that is, this is the thing, the parameter that distinguishes the mexican politics of the last 20-30. years is quite stable, and will claudia schimbaum also expect a change of power in the united states, or would it be better for the president of new mexico if joe biden remained in the white house? what does mexico even need in this situation? well, we see that andrés manuel lópez obrador also behaved, if he had a relatively good relationship with biden, i think that in mexico, in general

, the perception is more favorable... the democrats in power, let's see, they will obviously treat with great attention to the united states, while mexico is actively displacing gradually china from the trade balance of the united states, that is, mexico, it is, let's say, conquering its place, yes, its niche in the united states, their relations are developing quite actively, they would manage to more or less control all the migration points there, if the republicans take, yes there is a congress, or trump will come to power, or another candidate from the republican party. so all these things that worsened relations between mexico and the states there 5-7 years ago, they can resurface, and obviously the democrats, there is joe biden at the moment for mexico, it will probably be a more mild option for the development of relations. and tell me, the election of a woman as president of mexico, is it a political revolution, or a continuation of some such trends that we have all been following over the past years and decades, after all, claudia schoenbaum, she is the first woman.